EXCL: First Poll In Corbyn’s Fight Against Labour
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 มิ.ย. 2024
- Novara Live broadcasts every weekday from 6PM on TH-cam and Twitch.
Episodes of Downstream are released Sundays at 3PM on TH-cam.
__________________________
Support our journalism by buying Novara Media merch:
shop.novaramedia.com
Donate one hour’s wage per month, or whatever you can afford:
novara.media/support
![[UNCUT] ฝันรักห้วงนิทรา | EP.8 (4/4)](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/RDYJYiDwsj0/mqdefault.jpg)
I would vote for Jeremy Corbyn.
14% is not close. He’s done, sadly, unless you get down there and help him. 😅
@@aclark903 The familiar election feeling from 2019 of most people just not liking Jeremy Corbyn enough.
Why, what has he accomplished ? Has he won an election ? What policies did he implement?
Look at his voting record, or are you for brexit?
@@erikaverink8418 Well, the most pro European party the Lib Dems are polling 7%. So it seems 93% are for Brexit in Islington…
Has he won an election. Yes of course. Was he allowed to win a Genersl Election. No. Does that invalidate his entire political career? No of course not. Does he need a political party to be fully effective, of course he does. So your point is incredibly trivial. @erikaverink8418
Comrades -- rather than panicking, rather than getting disappointed, rather than perpetuating a feeble hopelessness, recognise that this polling is NOT the whole picture. Corbyn has been the local Labour MP for 40 years, many constituents will be unaware that he is now an independent - this is an imperative message to get across, and also that this is a two horse race between he and the party that shamelessly ousted him.
It is also hard to overstate how popular he is in his constituency -- despite the hellfire raining down on him in 2019, he won 65% (!) of the vote, and since 1987 has never got less than 50%.
If you can, get out and campaign! Spread the word, for all those fighting against the corruption of our system...
How can we help? Islington North Labour Party not answering phone or email. Main Labour website directed me to Dover as closet place to help.
Time for him to stand down after 40 yrs
With such a high profile condidate, how do nominal labour votors NOT know Corbyn is standing as an independant?
Maybe the people of Islington would like a Labour MP rather than an apologist for vile regimes
Having Farage and Corbyn as opposition in the Commons will liven things up a bit and they both agree on Brexit - hooray!
I will never understand people how could they not vote for Corbyn
there may be a few reasons, but ultimately, england is a small “c” conservative nation. as much as i hate the duplicity of starmer, he has realized that, and so has pretty much dropped all of the policies that helped to get him elected leader, in favour of socially and economically conservative policies.
yes, london has a labour mayor, but he has a centre-left political ideology (as much as his political opponents, often clouded by bigotry, would have you believe otherwise).
@@nl5828The red train is hard to stop.
He sympathises with terrorists.
@@nl5828 But Jeremy came within 3000 votes of being elected to PM in 2017!
@@michaelgreenhalgh3369 Corbyn basically enabled Brexit by making negligible effort to campaign against it as he was very anti EU himself despite Labour members being mostly pro EU. Given how close the Brexit vote was if we’d have had a different leader actively campaigning in the run up and arguing to stay in the EU perhaps the vote might have gone the other way. He’s also net very unpopular with the British public and the most important role of a Labour leader is to get into power but he facilitated more Tory governments.
How is this even possible? I hope he wins, he’s the only man for the job!
It's called reality. It's mad that you thought Corbyn would win the seat! A few vox pops and a zealous leftist media don't reflect the reality
He’s been in that seat since 1983. Time for someone new
@@briandelaney9710 no because he does a good job for his constituents
Because a lot of people outside this online bubble are not aware that he's now an independent candidate. Gotta get out there and canvass for Corbyn!
it's possible because most people blindly consume the media
Nobody polled me and I’m voting for Jeremy.
*Exactly*
The only poll that counts is the one where you cast your vote: the rest are junk.
I take it that you live in Islington North?
That's not how polls work 🙄
@@anthonydude Indeed, poll questions are so loaded !!
That's not how polls work...
Jeremy Corbyn is the deserving candidate by a mile!! He has to win. If there's any decency left in this world Jeremy is the best person without a doubt.
Gonna have to persuade the Greens & the Tories to vote tactically…
No he isn't, he is for Brexit that crippled UK's economy.
You're talking about a country which has kept the worst iterations of the Tory party in power for 14 years, and which also voted for Brexit. Don't expect common sense or insight.
I don’t believe there is any decent people left. They voted the same way and then whine about it.
@@thomascroft5076Corbyn never uses common sense.
Oh no I thought he’d win due to loyalty from voters and his loyalty to them .
Mass Ignorance
@@highpath4776 I am beginning to wonder if they have been bought off eg with vouchers for private health care, arsenal tickets, uber vouchers and stuff like that. Either that or they're just a bunch of ingrates.
As an Aussie, I'm so grateful we have preferential voting and proportional representation
And compulsory voting.
@@donna25871 yes that too!
Unfortunately you only have proportional representation for one house of parliament and not both. Please check out the Proportional Representation Society of Australia and campaign for full PR.
@@NANA-kf1cs the problem is that you also need local representation in a democracy and I don't see how that's compatible with proportional representation in the lower house
I agree .In Germany it is pr and all I can say is .The majority of the Public in UK would never understand it Novara think many in the constituency won't know he is an independent ! All they have to do is look at a list of candidates and tick one box What could be easier ? If people can't manage that they deserve what they get .
People don’t know what’s good for them, no wonder the country is going to shit.
That is true
This is true, if people knew what was good for them they would vote a party that would crack down on illegal immigration and preserve British identity, reduce the mass immigration that is draining the economy and inflating property prices robbing young Brits of a decent future. Vote Reform if you care about the future of Brits
A bit elitist maybe ??
We don’t want more of the same!! Come on Islington save us, please vote JC. He’s a local, knows the community a good man with integrity
JC has been the MP for decades mate. Literally more of the same
@@SpiredRapiditymany people of Islington have been helped and supported by Jeremy. That's what a proper politician should do!!!!
If the poll is correct then you really have to despair at the moral compass of the electorate!
I hope JC wins
Lol JC so true
Vote for the honest man and that’s corbyn
Vote for a dishonest man called Corbyn.
I really don’t see this poll as accurate JC has more support than is reflected.
What is this based on?
The poll was made with a sample size of 514 voters, which is 0.23% of Islington North's population.
If you extrapolate that across the entire UK that would be 154,000 people, which would be 2.5 times larger than the largest MRP poll in 2024.
@@MurphyOCP-001 For ANY survey sample you normally need 1000 as a full confidence +/- 2percent. However about a third for Corbyn seems reasonable , BUT the survey might be enough to pull 10percent off Labour if published now
@@highpath4776 Looking at the undecided polling tables Labour still have a majority of unsure voters leaning towards them
He has well deserved popularity but people worried that Conservatives will get in. Which seems silly given facts.
@@MurphyOCP-001 here, or elsewhere ?
I hear most Labour Voters still think JC is in the party and that's why they're voting Labour .. I just hope people names on the paper before slapping down their X
Really?? I thought the whole country knew he'd been treated like dirt and kicked out. That's just bonkers.
That poll is very worrying..
Or a lie
@@freedom4639Hope so!
Good.
got to be fake news
Let Corbyn retire
I'd vote for him, i know he's standing as an independent but he's worked tirelessly for his constituents
Why does standing as an independent have negative connotations? Genuine question as you say 'he's standing as an independent but...'
Truly hope Corbyn wins! 🤞
Vive Corbyn ! Bougez vous pour sa campagne, ceux qui peuvent. On a pas mal de boulot en France aussi.
Merci pour votre solidarité!
Hello Michael ❤
Yes for Corbyn ✌️🕊️☮️
Grace needs to sell more of her books - Vote Jeremy Corbyn !
Labour candidate knock on my door last night I said I couldn't vote for labour with Starmer as leader because of the way he teated Jeremy Corbyn. I don't live in Jeremy Corbyn area so I will be voting Green 💚🇬🇧🧐
Well done , spread the message !
It's good to see Jeremy doing so well, I don't agree with all his ideas, but he is obviously a good man.
I would have hoped for a better prediction. Let's see and try to be optimistic.
When will people learn
VOTE CORBYN !!
Never, when there will be no assets left in the public ownership, when it will be now NHS then they will see the true face of clown Farage and Starmer but it will be to late
Vote green
@@roders007 waste. they have no chance of winning islington north. if you live in bristol central or brighton pavilion then yes, vote them, i live in BC and i will vote the greens. but in islington north, VOTE CORBYN, not anyone else.
@@roders007 I'm a strong supporter of the Greens but even I'd vote Corbyn.
Surprised the Greens aren't standing down in this seat.
When will you learn
CORBYN WAS UNELECTABLE!!
this is what makes me worry that I am in a political echo chamber
Please let him win. Only guy with any integrity
Some Labour voters thought JC was still a Labour candidate and already postal voted for Labour 😮apparently. Jeez.
I am in my 60s and have voted Labour all my life. Not this time , I will be voting green even though I live in an area that is predominantly tory. I would absolutely vote for Jeremy if I was in his area. Polls are not the be-all and end all as it doesn't always show the full picture.
This could be the beginning of the end for the NHS if Praful wins. He and Streeting will cosy up and do their worst.
If Streeting keeps his seat
@@Bob-bx2vk I mean assuming he doesn't have a heart attack in the next week I think he probably has that one in the bag
@@rookierookierookie Leanne still has a say
And streetings majority was 5,000
@@Bob-bx2vk Yes, Streeting's majority was about 10 points... from the Conservatives. So with the general national vote collapse of the Tories you'd be looking at something like a 40 point prospective majority in a London seat.
So you would need about 40% of those Labour voters to go for a left-wing protest vote, AND not split it between the IND candidate and the greens.
Since that vote will split, you'd need more like 60%.
That's not going to happen.
@@rookierookierookie well, let's hope it does
Streeting makes my flesh crawl
The idea of Kier Starmer's war on socialists being comprehensively vindicated makes me physically sick.
And the NHS won’t treat you!
I really wish JC hadn't gone as an independent, wish he joined the Greens. Dont the good people of Islington know that the Labour candidate wants more Privatisation in the NHS.
Labour....the new nightmare
Not new, just more ominous.
Yep... Imagine thinking another major party funded by wealthy donors and headed by a pretender will actually change anything. Feels like caring about politics is just pointless in this country.
Corbyn is a recurring nightmare
@@barnabycauwood3983 I quite like Jeremy. Is there something you know about him that I don't.
@@teamcoalhapcharcoal If can fathom it, worse in the U.S.
I don't believe it. The local Labour Party members have been confusing people by telling people to vote for Jeremy. Many of these people are know to the locals and their neighbours and friends. The local electorate is so used to Jeremy that they think "yeah, sure, I always do!" thinking that Jeremy is still Labour. It's a poor constituency and many don't speak English or follow the news. Also Jeremy made a mistake by using red in his flyers. It's confusing. But all in all I don't believe the gap in this poll.
So if voters vote for the only person called Jeremy on the ballot, its all good? if so hope so. Uppa JC 😎
@@Geckatron They look for the symbol. Many cannot read Western script.
@@martycrow Then the symbol for independent and J should be shared. Dunno, just an idea but hope it goes JC's way as he seems a decent human. All the best. 🙂
@@martycrow There should be faces on the ballots.
@@4R53Hole LOL! They should be Reading & Speaking English.
This feels like the final death knell of the project!
show you can go after Labour top ten percent vote as it wont affect a Lab Govt generally. The way to win is to get the postal voters in (Postal Votes can now go in Ballot boxes on the day = the stuffing seen is legal
Lets hope so!
I'm not sure I'd describe 14 points as "close", tbh.
Out of a poll of 512...
Vote for Jeremy Corbyn. Honest, honorable, full of integrity, bravery, dignity morality, humanity.
Remember polls are only a snapshot view of a small portion of people compared to the overall actual voting public ,that said people are fickle vote out one Tory vote labour and still get tory policies ,some people never seem to learn
Notice all the unsold books by her on the bookshelf and the strange scratchy voice these people have. Bet she's never been north of the M25.
Self-promotion somewhat overdone!
Proving that when it comes to political awareness the voters are clueless...
It seems a shame that such a decent long standing MP is unable to turnover a Labour candidate that is happy with the privatisation of healthcare unbelievable! Absolutely gutted!
Most people don't know that. Most people will just vote for the party, as opposed to voting for the candidate.
@@jumpa654 and most people take the manifestos at face value and don't realise Labour are pro-privatisation.
@@MarKeMu125 and most people don't even know what the party manifestos are, they just vote for the name lol
@@jumpa654 Yeah, it's literally about "feels" it seem which is why manufactured consent is so effective... Most of the population seems to be politically illiterate.
@@MarKeMu125 and that's why we are in the situation we are today. Ask the farmers, fisherman, British businessman (and women) , how they are getting on financially compared to 15 years ago, and the answer would be very negative. Brexit was all about the British people. What happened? We got conned, that's what happened.
Jeremy Corbyn is just going to be Jamie Driscoll all over again. So is Faisa Shaheen.
The British electorate *ALWAYS* disappoints.
Good luck Jeremy. The UK and democracy need you in Parliament.
I’m in the U.S. but will still be heartbroken (and pissed) if so.
Corbyn’s probably the most kind-hearted and principled man in politics - and he’s a brilliant MP from what I’ve heard. He makes time for everyone.
Somebody said it was his Jesuit training when he had planned to be a priest. I think it's on TH-cam.
He's a truly empath
Corbyn’s leadership was chaotic and Labour would have succeeded in 2019 if John Mc Donnell was in charge. Clear, cogent, authoritative.
A principled politician is rare, so if Jeremy Corbyn retains his seat parliament will have at least one principled parliamentarian.
I wish I lived in N Islington. Vote Corbyn.
So sad. I’m in his constituency and have always voted for him.
Do it again, then.
I hope JC win and lead the real opposition in parliament ✌️
Even if he wins, he would only lead himself and noone else, even more being the Leader of Real Opposition! 😂
It's Corbyn's utter lack of political realism that made him such a disaster. You could be honest, principled, etc etc and be David Icke. And your hope that "JC win(s) and lead(s) the real opposition in parliament " is a horse from that same lalaland stable - we are in genuine danger of having Farage lead the opposition! Corbyn is just an error of judgement from a generation of Labour Party members that were only happy in opposition.
40 years as an MP for the constituency and the electorate just cast him asunder. Wow was it worth it serving Jeremy?
Hi there. Jeremy is my MP. He is very popular in Islington North. Some people still think he is a Labour MP though. I think activists need to stand outside all the polling stations to remind people to look for the name not the red rose.
This is what we need more of. Politicians of retirement age.
Vote Jeremy Corbyn a great man and honest politician !!
Corbyn is a good man.
Sure is yes
JC is the main reason we had Johnson as PM and the hardest possible brexit. He should not even be running for MP, there must be things he's actually capable of doing. Politics isn't for him.
Inaccurate. The Tory Press Campaign did it.
@@ArtyFactual_Intelligence Sure thing bud. But then why did the Tory Press Campaign not kill off Starmer? You think they like being trounced out of power?
Plz come out of the houses and play your role to elect Corbyn in the comming elections. HE deserves to win
Novara media, How about you guys do a poll of your own and ask 1000 random people in Islington, might take 3/4 hours for 3/4 volunteers to complete the job and get another perspective on this?
Will Micheal Walker cry live on camera when he loses to labour by 15 points?
Vote corbyn bring back real politicians
👍👍👍
Corbyn destroyed Labour. For 34 years he was 100% AGAINST the EU in all its forms- a perfectly honourable and respectable position. But when he became Labour Leader he was unable to speak for half of the Party on that issue. He will forever be remembered as one of the three reasons why the 2019 GE was lost so horribly- Corbyn, Bojo, Brexit. He is a nice man, and a complete disaster as a Politician. Hopefully, he has had his day, and Labour can get on with the serious business of unifying the country and cleaning up the ghastly mess.
And supporting the bombing of children, privatising the nhs, using GB energy to give away public money to the energy companies. Selling policy to the highest bidder. Really sorting out the country, aren't they. But I guess you know integrity and morality are not for you.
That is not close. He needs a lot more support , advertising, help etc.
Cmon Jezza you can do it !
You say that the election is 'close'. Well, I guess that's one way to describe a 14 point lead...
Westminster politicians rely on the fact that a huge number of people just aren't politically switched on or aware.
Plus our first passed the post system at Westminster is totally undemocratic
At 5:15, Michael seems to be saying that many voters' preference for Labour in Islington North seems to be because they "don''t follow politics particularly closely". That's pretty patronising! Many of those voters will have made an informed and reasoned choice.
That's depressing.
Polls can be influential and you can bet the establishment want Corbyn gone so there is the motivation for people to vote for him!
No chance he will lose
How? With these figures?
@@wiretamer5710 polls are not always indicative of a final result, especially in small constituencies with small samples. What must be done is to use our passion for the movement to advocate for JC and help him win.
@@wiretamer5710 It's with 512 people polled.
"Could it be that our beloved magic grandpa isn't the wonderful genius that we think he is? No, it's the voters of Islington North! They're too thick and gullible!".
I fully expected that this Know-it-all Head Prefect / Hall Monitor would have *an entire shelf of her own books* prominently displayed right behind her and she did not disappoint.
Go Mr Jeremy Corbyn ✊🏻✊🏻👍👍
His going to be gone, very soon.
To your allotment and fertilise your marrows
@@AZ26744 And to look at his prized collection of manhole covers or in Corbyn’s case ‘maintenance hole’ covers.
A harsh lesson in politics is that people vote from habit more than common sense. Kia Kaha Jeremy.
He kuware a Jeremy
This is why the UK needs preferential voting, AKA Instant Runoff Voting - ‘number the candidates in order of preference’ instead ‘tick the box next to your one & only choice’
Grace trying to sell her books....and we are supposed to take her seriously!
It's very rare for an ex-MP - even one treated as shabbily as Jeremy - to win against an official party candidate. He will come far closer than most. Ironically his best chance of being re-elected would have been if Labour were doing badly in the national polls as the official party's vote would be much lower and he would benefit from a "protest vote". It's possible there might be a surge of support for him in the final week as voters realise the value of retaining him.
Please vote for Jeremy Corbyn !
Let the good people of his constituency decide. That's democracy.
Close? It doesn't look close at all. Pity.
Strange analysis, to say that people are not aware enough regarding Labour and Corbyn is silly, People are voting Labour, yes to get the Tories out, but also because they want change. Coming from a Working Class background where there was not much money to go around I feel very let down by the far left and the Corbyn years. Under his watch we had Austerity, Brexit and Boris Johnson. He obviously was not the instigator but a feeble opposition towards the damage that the Tories inflicted upon the country.
Wonderful news it’s made my morning
solidarity from the United Htates. I wish it was more I could do to help you.
... It's not close
Thank you.
GO ON JEREMY👍✅👍✅👍✅
Hilarious bookshelf in a good way, of course.
Well he is one of the least popular politicians in the country so it's hardly surprising he would lose to another Labour candidate!
Off work this week and on my way to Islington now!
Great news.
Well, this was really disappointing. If Jeremy loses, then the other challengers against Starmer and Streeting will surely also lose. The only chance now is for voters to decide to vote tactically against Labour. If I were a Tory, I would be voting for Corbyn.
Whether you are a Jeremy fan or not, he can not ever be faulted for his unflinching support for working people and people less well off. I do not believe this poll. He surely surely has double digit lead. 40 years constituency service!!
Sounds as if Jeremy is not as popular as he thinks he is.
Grace certainly luvs reading her own book.
Yes. Perhaps she could send the profits on a decent microphone?
Strange view that if people don’t vote for Corbyn it’s not cos they don’t like him or his views it’s for a myriad of other reasons. The implication is however they vote,they really want Corbyn
Wish we could clone Grace a million times to spread her message across the world, such a great voice to understand the economy for experts and non-experts alike.
Let us pray that some of the labour supporters are teasing labour. And will actually vote CORBYN when they actually vote
😊
Michael, there's another constituency to watch. Chorley, we are voting for Lindsey Hoyles' future as speaker.
The problem with Corbyn is that he's such a wet lettuce
Wow I didn't expect that I was expecting him to be well ahead.
Maybe consider that outside of Momentum/Novara/Canary most people consider Jeremy to be a dangerous idiot
It's a disappointing reveal but it's not entirely surprising either. A lot of people don't really vote for the people in their area and just vote for the party they want/hate the least. As Michael points out, many people just want the Tories out and in a two party distopia that just means voting for the other big party: Labour.
The sample size is 512 voters? I dont think its representative of the constituency.
Exactly