Hi Paul, I decided to backtest this method on Eur/Usd on the m15 from March to July. It took hours but glad I did it. Here's my results: Total bos and choch 1610 Total bos 1374 Total choch 236 Bos into bos 84% Bos into choch 16% Choch into choch 8% Choch into bos 94% It's cool how the figures match up across time frames. This was a really good exercise for marking up structure the FTR method. I just thought I'd mention I got choch, choch into choch only once (well under 1% 0.004) Cheers Dave
@TradeForexwithPaul cheers mate, here's a couple more stats I plucked out: Getting a bos after 2 consecutive chochs, 1 or more bos 95% 2 or more bos 77% 3 or more bos 68% 4 or more bos 59% 5 or more bos 54% 6 or more bos 40% I want to find an easy way to record % retracement for each bos. Thanks again mate, you've got me on a mission now. Dave
love ur new scalping strategy, are you looking forward making morẻ explaining videos about your m1 scalping strategy? we would really appreciated. Ur one of a kind Paul
Thanks so much mate! Will have more soon. Will also go back to a hybrid between backtesting and live trading results soon as well... I'm testing out a few new brokers to see how they perform in the live markets and I think this is the best way to share the data
Just be aware that it has a very low win rate… i think Paul has said its around 20-30% max… so stsritcally you could have a loosing run of over 15 trades in a row… you need nerves of iron and a very strict money management rule to withstand that win/loss ratio. Paul can bwcause he has tested and traded it for years.. but imagine a new trader using this and getting 15 straight losses
👍Thanks, your mathematical approach and stats are great .👍 So, Paul, the previous 4hr (and 15min) CHoC back on the 16th July is an example of the small percentage of CHoCs that fail, even with FTR rules ???
Thank you! Yes mate. You'll still get failures - can do literally everything right and still get a negative result. It comes down to a positive expectancy or a negative expectancy - that's literally it with trading
Great video Paul, those stats are just crazy. Im back testing these bos and choch on m15 at the moment to see what stats I get for the scalping strategy.
Thanks for the video. I've been watching for about 12 months. Do you use a Raw spread account or the regular one? Also do you use MT4, MT5 or the IC markets platform?
Hello Paul. Great video as usually. How many candles need to happen for you to mark it with a line as BoS or ChoCh? In your "blank chart line drawing" you said that each line is one candle (first one moves up, creates high. second moves down, the third or whatever breaks BoS). However, when you drew the lines here 10:04 you ignored small BoS formation of 2 candles and the third candle breaking it. So what is a minimal amount of candles we need to mark it as BoS or ChoCh? I tried my best. Hope, you can understand🤣
I get you mate. It just needs a 1 candle pullback. So downward market will need a higher low, AND a higher high - creates an apex and a chevron, then if the next candle breaks down - that'd be BOS. Same for revers. ChoCh can come a single candle after that
Paul at 9 min 20 secs you talk about the 1 min candle and its low at a level of 1.08760 . i noticed you use EUR/USD FXCM charts . i use the OANDA EUR/USD chart and the same candle reads as 1.08762 .. so would you recommend switching all charts to FXCM charts instead of Oanda as this could make a difference for BOS/CHOCH purposes
@chriscampbell3699 thanks for asking mate. Just for YT I use FXCM - I use forex.com usually for my own charts. Pick the one that is most accurate to your broker as it'll give you the most confidence on your results
Hi Paul ! After a BoS has happened, what's your criterion to adjust (or not) the new ChoC level ? For example, in an uptrend, does the ChoC level needs to be the low of the previous X candles ? (X being a value like 2,3 or 5). In other words, does the ChoC level need to be the apex of the last X candles before it ? I'm developing a program that computes the stats of bos/choc, on any timeframe I'd like. I can get 10,000+ data points (total bos/choc) in a couple of minutes. I'd love to discuss the results with you. Kind regards. Ben
@@supundilhara2263 I'm not sure Paul would agree this is always the case. If the pullback would be made over only 1 candle before a new bos, this wouldn't be true, and the choc level wouldn't be readjusted. I guess the choc level must be some sort of apex and thus be the low/high of the previous X candles, otherwise the system is not mechanical. In my program, I play with this value 'X', and it changes things. Thanks for your answer nonetheless, let's wait and see Paul bring clarification over this :) Have a good day !
9:20 That left me confused. I was doing my analysis tonight and on the OANDA chart it is a ChoCh with a body by 0.1 pip. I think in the future i will consider a 0.1 pip body break as a wick break since all broker datafeeds have slight variations.
Ah mate, the brokers... it's actually why I changed my rules in Jan this year. The most accurate we've found is FOREX.COM broker feed. BUT - you should always use the feed of your broker if it's available, and base your plan exactly off that. So it may just be a few tiny tweaks to the strat and you'll be off
FTR strategy is phenomenal and extremely simple but my psychology is messing it up. It gave absolutely crazy results while backtesting but I'm lacking at the execution in the live market.
It is said that the probability of getting BoS after CHoCH is around 90%. But that still doesn't mean that the probability of hitting BoS target after CHoCH and 50% pullback is also 90%. So I did a backtest testing this particular strategy: Pair: GBPAUD Period: 1-Sep-2023 - 31-Aug-2024 TF: 15min Strategy: BOS after CHOCH with 50% pullback, RR 1:1 Markup method: as presented in this video Results: No of trades: 220 Won: 121 WR: 55% Still very consistent and profitable strategy. If you use 10-15 different assets and risk only 0.5% per trade, this can still give one 5-10% monthly profits.
![THE MOST ACCURATE TRADING PATTERN EVER [OVER 90%]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/RQX9CTfZR1w/mqdefault.jpg)
Hi Paul, I decided to backtest this method on Eur/Usd on the m15 from March to July. It took hours but glad I did it. Here's my results:
Total bos and choch 1610
Total bos 1374
Total choch 236
Bos into bos 84%
Bos into choch 16%
Choch into choch 8%
Choch into bos 94%
It's cool how the figures match up across time frames.
This was a really good exercise for marking up structure the FTR method.
I just thought I'd mention I got choch, choch into choch only once (well under 1% 0.004)
Cheers Dave
Who would bet the farm after getting 2 chochs back to back?
Sorry that should say choch into bos 92%.
@@DP-zt5qe maaaate this is phenomenal. REALLY really well done!
@TradeForexwithPaul cheers mate, here's a couple more stats I plucked out:
Getting a bos after 2 consecutive chochs,
1 or more bos 95%
2 or more bos 77%
3 or more bos 68%
4 or more bos 59%
5 or more bos 54%
6 or more bos 40%
I want to find an easy way to record % retracement for each bos.
Thanks again mate, you've got me on a mission now.
Dave
@@DP-zt5qe This. Is. Phenomenal.
What a legend! Hope you live 1000 years! Cant thank you enough for the knowledge❤
@@XULESCUBEBE favourite comment ever
Absolutely Gold mate as well! 100% mechanical 👌
Thank you dude. Actually had fun making this one
wow very impressive, after completing my course in smc, I will step over to your platform greetings from Bulgaria
Thank you! Honestly, the less SMC you learn the better - you'll only have to Unlearn it
Love the video! Thanksssss finally Choch Bos proper video! Been looking all the youtube for BOS CHOCH VIDEO. LOVE You SIR❤❤❤
@@XULESCUBEBE thank you so much! Glad it's helped!
Man this is amazing! Loved how you explained the mathematics behind it aswell and I'll do some data gathering for myself aswell with the new rules
@@wimvanerge5210 thank you! The less subjectivity, the better 🙌
this week was overall kind of hard but ending it with +7,5% in the 15min thanks to your strategy.
@@imad0926 yeah! Very tough week! Well done!
love ur new scalping strategy, are you looking forward making morẻ explaining videos about your m1 scalping strategy? we would really appreciated. Ur one of a kind Paul
Thanks so much mate!
Will have more soon.
Will also go back to a hybrid between backtesting and live trading results soon as well... I'm testing out a few new brokers to see how they perform in the live markets and I think this is the best way to share the data
Just be aware that it has a very low win rate… i think Paul has said its around 20-30% max… so stsritcally you could have a loosing run of over 15 trades in a row… you need nerves of iron and a very strict money management rule to withstand that win/loss ratio.
Paul can bwcause he has tested and traded it for years.. but imagine a new trader using this and getting 15 straight losses
@jac.meihoff this is spot on mate. Even now it can be stomach churning taking 10-15 in a row even if doing everything right
👍Thanks, your mathematical approach and stats are great .👍 So, Paul, the previous 4hr (and 15min) CHoC back on the 16th July is an example of the small percentage of CHoCs that fail, even with FTR rules ???
Thank you! Yes mate. You'll still get failures - can do literally everything right and still get a negative result. It comes down to a positive expectancy or a negative expectancy - that's literally it with trading
This is an absolute game changer, I have heard you mention this before but the CHoCH - BoS stat is irrefutable.
Thank you! Yeah, had to mix it up in Jan. Made it far more powerful
Good video, looking forward to the next
Great video Paul, those stats are just crazy.
Im back testing these bos and choch on m15 at the moment to see what stats I get for the scalping strategy.
@DP-zt5qe it's genuinely mental mate. Just whatever you do - ALWAYS use a spreadsheet
Yeah mate absolutely, I've gone back to March on m15, it should give me plenty of data. It's going to take a while but well worth it. Cheers
Dave
@DP-zt5qe nice one mate. Really putting the hours in! 🙌
Love the video Paul. How was your trading week last week? Based on this BOS and CHoCh concept, the H4 really messed with me last week.
Thank you mate. Poor trading personally, but decent half-win on Friday. Was far too impulsive due to time constraints
Thanks for the video. I've been watching for about 12 months. Do you use a Raw spread account or the regular one? Also do you use MT4, MT5 or the IC markets platform?
Thank you mate - glad you've been finding good value!
I do! Raw spread, and on cTrader - I've never been able to figure out MT4/5 etc
Hello Paul. Great video as usually. How many candles need to happen for you to mark it with a line as BoS or ChoCh? In your "blank chart line drawing" you said that each line is one candle (first one moves up, creates high. second moves down, the third or whatever breaks BoS). However, when you drew the lines here 10:04 you ignored small BoS formation of 2 candles and the third candle breaking it. So what is a minimal amount of candles we need to mark it as BoS or ChoCh?
I tried my best. Hope, you can understand🤣
I get you mate. It just needs a 1 candle pullback.
So downward market will need a higher low, AND a higher high - creates an apex and a chevron, then if the next candle breaks down - that'd be BOS.
Same for revers.
ChoCh can come a single candle after that
Paul at 9 min 20 secs you talk about the 1 min candle and its low at a level of 1.08760 . i noticed you use EUR/USD FXCM charts . i use the OANDA EUR/USD chart and the same candle reads as 1.08762 .. so would you recommend switching all charts to FXCM charts instead of Oanda as this could make a difference for BOS/CHOCH purposes
@chriscampbell3699 thanks for asking mate. Just for YT I use FXCM - I use forex.com usually for my own charts. Pick the one that is most accurate to your broker as it'll give you the most confidence on your results
Awesome information here Paul! The link to joining the discord isn't working. Is it just me or?
Thank you mate. Give it a try now.
Alternatively: www.launchpass.com/ftr-trading/trader
You have not mentioned where to enter
Thank for the video boss!! 🎉
You're welcome!
Hi Paul ! After a BoS has happened, what's your criterion to adjust (or not) the new ChoC level ? For example, in an uptrend, does the ChoC level needs to be the low of the previous X candles ? (X being a value like 2,3 or 5). In other words, does the ChoC level need to be the apex of the last X candles before it ?
I'm developing a program that computes the stats of bos/choc, on any timeframe I'd like. I can get 10,000+ data points (total bos/choc) in a couple of minutes. I'd love to discuss the results with you.
Kind regards.
Ben
New choch will be the lowest/highest pullback
@@supundilhara2263 I'm not sure Paul would agree this is always the case. If the pullback would be made over only 1 candle before a new bos, this wouldn't be true, and the choc level wouldn't be readjusted. I guess the choc level must be some sort of apex and thus be the low/high of the previous X candles, otherwise the system is not mechanical.
In my program, I play with this value 'X', and it changes things.
Thanks for your answer nonetheless, let's wait and see Paul bring clarification over this :) Have a good day !
Paul, if you have any free time to check my questions above, that'd be truly appreciated :) Thanks !
@@AlgoTraderBenare you doing this study in .net or python, mql?
9:20 That left me confused. I was doing my analysis tonight and on the OANDA chart it is a ChoCh with a body by 0.1 pip. I think in the future i will consider a 0.1 pip body break as a wick break since all broker datafeeds have slight variations.
Ah mate, the brokers... it's actually why I changed my rules in Jan this year. The most accurate we've found is FOREX.COM broker feed.
BUT - you should always use the feed of your broker if it's available, and base your plan exactly off that. So it may just be a few tiny tweaks to the strat and you'll be off
Hi whens the next video coming out?
Next sat or Sunday mate
@@TradeForexwithPaul Thanks
FTR strategy is phenomenal and extremely simple but my psychology is messing it up. It gave absolutely crazy results while backtesting but I'm lacking at the execution in the live market.
Totally normal mate. Losing streaks hurt. Play the odds - they'll always work for you in the long run. Don't deviate
Hello, what is ftr for? thank you
Haha it's a middle finger to the forex gurus 'f*** the rest'
Amazing mate 👍
Thank you 🙌
It is said that the probability of getting BoS after CHoCH is around 90%. But that still doesn't mean that the probability of hitting BoS target after CHoCH and 50% pullback is also 90%. So I did a backtest testing this particular strategy:
Pair: GBPAUD
Period: 1-Sep-2023 - 31-Aug-2024
TF: 15min
Strategy: BOS after CHOCH with 50% pullback, RR 1:1
Markup method: as presented in this video
Results:
No of trades: 220
Won: 121
WR: 55%
Still very consistent and profitable strategy. If you use 10-15 different assets and risk only 0.5% per trade, this can still give one 5-10% monthly profits.
FALSE. 55% winrate with a 1:1 RR is NOT PROFITABLE. Not on LIVE, not on DEMO. due to slippage, spread and commissions.
is the data gathered for internal or external structure or both?
Externally mate
Only one doubt....all the stats in the end based on 4H time frame or 15Min TF?
@@Tjtrades11 h4 mate
It's the primary TF we follow
@@TradeForexwithPaul thanks Paul 👍
Have you watched the WSOP lately. Wasn't bad.
No mate. World series of poker?
@@TradeForexwithPaul yep, I wondered if you kept an eye on it, just when chilling out, liking poker.
Tbh I watched about 3 hours of it about 2 months ago (possibly re-runs) as I played again recently. Feeling like going again this week now :D