Financial Crisis Is Coming So Get Ready | Larry McDonald and Jimmy Connor
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 ต.ค. 2024
- Larry McDonald, publisher of The Bear Traps Report, provides an overview of the global financial markets and where he is allocating capital during these crazy times.
Larry is also a New York Times bestselling author and contributor to CNBC.
Bear Traps Report www.thebeartra...
WAIVER & DISCLAIMER
If you register for this webinar/interview you agree to the following: This webinar is provided for information purposes only. All opinions expressed by the individuals in this webinar/interview are solely the individuals’ opinions and neither reflect the opinions, nor are made on behalf of, Bloor Street Capital Inc. Presenters will not be providing legal or financial advice to any webinar participants or any person watching a recorded version of the webinar. The investing ideas and strategies discussed on this webinar/interview are not recommendations to buy or sell any security and are not intended to provide any investment advise of any kind, but are made available solely for educational and informational purposes. Investments or strategies mentioned in this webinar/interview may not be suitable for your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any investment strategy discussed in this webinar/interview. All webinar participants or viewers of a recorded version of this webinar should obtain independent legal and financial advice. All webinar participants accept and grant permission to Bloor Street Capital Inc. and its representatives in connection with such recording. The information contained in this webinar/interview is current as of October, 2024, the date of this webinar/interview, unless otherwise indicated, and is provided for information purposes.
![[ 🔴LIVE ] Minecraft : Day2 #ปริมรูหนู วันนี้ต้องชุดเพชร](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/j6tAV3CRSHA/mqdefault.jpg)
Larry believes Stagflation is coming in 2025! What do you think?
I remember the Lehman crisis so well. Larry summed it up nicely when it said it was hubris that took them all down but at the end of the day trillions of dollars were stolen and millions of people lost their homes and not one person was held accountable.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Michael and for taking the time to view our content!
"Inflation gets under the seat cushions" love this phrase. Larry is a great guest and the interview was full of such wisdoms. Thanks so much!
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
The most puzzling thing to me is why the FED in 2019 dropped the rates to 1/2 above zero by end of year. The second half of 2018 they raised 1/4 point from 2.50 to 2.75 in 3rd quarter and another 1/4 point in the 4th quarter. Both times tanking the stock market causing them to inject 650 billion end of 3rd quarter and 650 billion end of year 2018. Then Powell came out doing the big pivot in early 2019 saying they would not raise rates in 2019. Then after that DT came out telling Powell he would fire him if he did not start taking rates to zero which is what happened. There is the big key to what has happened since 2018 when they could not even raise above 2.5 percent without tanking the markets. Something very bad was going on economically is what the real truth is no matter how they want to spin it saying "the economy was the biggest and strongest in all of history". That was huge line of BS no doubt about it. Then the last quarter of 2019 we found out the FED had to do an emergency repo loan program to the big banks loaning a total of 12.3 trillion in a 3 month period ending the year. It was all about to fall apart is the real truth.
Thank you, James, for providing a forum for Larry to share his well-informed views and market pivot ideas. As Taleb says, Larry has "skin in the game". His experience spans equities and fixed income. Larry is a valid voice, with useful experience discussing strategies with professional investors involved in smart money market dynamics. I enjoyed the story about the West Chester group, and Jensen's latest marketing ploy.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Deanna and for the ongoing support!
There are many people who have come forward with the inflation/stagflation argument. I do not agree because historical benchmarks do not confirm this thesis and the stagflation people fail to actually describe the mechanism that causes the inflation. To illustrate Lyn Alden (Investment Strategist) explained why lowering interest rates is not going result in much stimulus: Most people already have very low interest rates on their mortgages and refinanced in 2020. As interest rates go down there will not be a refinancing boom; and therefore no increase in discretionary income that would result from lower payments.
During the 2010s the FED kept its rates very low and initiated several rounds of QE, yet there was little inflation - no comparison to 2020 to 2024. Why? What caused the inflation we have now? In 2020 and 2021 the FED lowered rates and bought treasuries. That money was handed out to consumers - stimulus. At the same time there was a break down in supply chains and many people were not working. So the government gave people money to spend on shrinking available goods and services and viola - inflation. It took 2 years of increasing rates, increasing service debt payments - money the government does not use on goods and services to increase inflation -- and the average consumer drilling through his/savings to see a marked decline in inflation. So baring stimulus what will re-ignite inflation in 2025 and 2026?
Another historical benchmark is Japan. Japan has a much higher debt to GDP ratio and started QE well before the US. Japan has had very low inflation and very low growth during this period. And low growth as opposed to inflation appears to be the side effect.
Saying the mechanism for inflation is the FED printing money is not correct. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 actually prevents the FED from putting new money directly into the economy. The FED offers low interest and additional reserves to commercial banks. Only when these commercial banks make new loans is new money actually put into the economy. Now in 2020 the FED was a catalyst for money creation by lowering interest rates and buying government debt. Unlike the 2010's when there was low inflation this borrowed money was put directly into the hands of consumers. This is the mechanism that can cause inflation. However, simply lowering interest rates and even engaging in QE (buying treasuries) were not enough to cause inflation and instead of stimulating growth, US growth was actually lower than the previous decade. To sum up: when commercial banks borrow money from the FED and use their reserves to lend to commercial enterprise this new money is being used to create additional goods and services, hence not inflationary. However, when the FED lowers interest rates, buys up government treasuries, and that money is handed out to consumers, then new money is put into the economy but there has been no increase in goods and services. In this case more money is chasing after the same goods and services - inflation.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the detailed comment/analysis Chris! I love it when viewers share their thoughts and opinions in such detail. I don't agree with the stagflation thesis but I believe inflation has not been tamed and it will accelerate later in 2025 and then the real fun begins.
Great insight, thanks. Was also shuffling stuff two weeks ago, moving out of large gold miners into energy (XLE/XOP) and platinum group metals.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! I'm curious why you moved out of gold miners and into PGMs.
Hi, thx. Should have clarified, I moved 40% out of gold miners recently to enter oil/gas markets, since I entered market back in early 2023 and some miners are nearing 100% gains (AGI, AEM, NEM). Wanted to realize profits on these investments while gold is up at highs $2700 and large miners appear will now take short break. Oil priced in gold is historical cheap, so rotated some, but not all. Also, I think Oil is being suppressed/manipulated prior to election and will soar afterward. As context, my entire invested portfolio in 2023 was 60% gold miners, and 40% silver miners. Am still holding my silver miners (up only 25% during comparable period), aside from mining stock investments, have significant amount of physical gold and silver holdings bought in 2020 at silver 14/oz and gold 1600/oz. I'll never sell this stuff , and will look to buy more when the inevitable "black swan" comes next year.and tanks markets..have indicators to exit prior to this happening and will then use the market crash as opportunity to use miner profits to buy more physical. Only had limited investment capital, so doing what I can for the largest asymmetrical gains based on the deliberate currency destruction by central banks. I do still own large gold miners and GDXJ, just not as much. Would like to keep rotating into uranium and platinum soon, but still liking golds potential, shall see..I appreciate channels like yours that give ideas how to manage all of this, your guest seemed to have confirmed what I've been doing and am.on right track, so thanks!
Great interview. Loved McDonald's book on the fall of Lehman. Still listen to it.
Thanks for the comment Paul and for the ongoing support!
Great analysis, thank you! A bit off-topic, but I wanted to ask: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Great info! I`m buying OXY, as many shares I can.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
unfortunately ppl that are still on side and just looking to other gains, they still have to wait few time for any recession. Untill there, others are growing their wallets. Market still have time and space to grow. Thanks many "analists" many ppl see how inflation eat their wealth, they wait on side for a big dip....but that dip is only up, only up.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! I agree, until the wave breaks keep riding it!
Port Workers Are Getting a Huge Raise. It Isn’t All $450,00 Paychecks.: missing a '0', my guy
yeh talk about being overpaid and they say theres no inflation...just wait
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yes, how's that for a raise!
You heard it hear folks stock rotation . Its allready started , get in before the herd.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
@@BloorStreetCapital pleasure
20:40 energy and materials stock were 45% of S&P
Leisure Suite Larry
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
It's always 6 months away.🤣
they're cutting to save China/the overseas market
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
I think IF he is correct about stagflation it will be a huge year for Gold and Silver as that economic scenario is like rocket fuel for PMs. By this time next year I can see 3500-4000 Gold and 60-70 Silver.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! I have little or no interest in silver but I think your gold target is bang on.
@@BloorStreetCapital i think Silver ends up outperforming Gold next year into a market blow off top. Just like 1980, 2008 and 2011. But I will take it all however it unfolds as In 2018 I bought a huge amount of both metals plus I am loading back up this month on mining stocks as they are soon to run hard into mid 2025 as well.
@@AMP98765 I hope you're right! I've been overweight golds for 3 years and its been hurting my performance. fyi I have an interview with Eric Sprott coming out on Oct 12 at 10am ET.
Stagflation I dont know but inflation is still a big big problem. These longshoremen strike and how much they make infuriates me. Im trying to get by on $6ok a year and its impossible. I was just at Sams Club and spent over $600 on groceries and the same good cost we $300 3 or 4 years ago
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Inflation is real and I think we have to realign our view on what it is. It is no longer 2% but much higher at 5 or 6%.
Forever bull market
Enjoyed this Jimmy thanks! Please bring on Ray Dalio. I finished his book The Changing World Order and it was fascinating.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Frank and for taking the time to view our content! I would love to do an interview with Ray Dalio.
One more point totally agree with what Larry said about Warren Buffett selling Apple to buy oil stocks. That tells you everything you need to know.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Jamie and for taking the time to view our content!
Thanks Jimmy and Larry!
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment John and for joining our TH-cam Premier!
Big fan of Larry McDonald and his new book, thanks!
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Jamie and for joining our TH-cam Premier!