The problem of American foreign policy is it has been predicated on military hegemony that is fading and an economic yoke around the US economy. Using military spending as a leading indicator of health underlines this problem.
Thanks to Fareed and FA for this thoughtful discussion. I think there is a little bit of American exceptionalism bias here, but I agree that this outlook is much closer to the reality of our situation than predominant narratives being pushed. We need to get out of our own way and start actually upholding the system that both has allowed us such great success but also been historically beneficial to most nations on earth.
It’s disappointing that Fareed doesn’t see the irony in his observation. Just last week he confirmed the pessimism-driven perception that American universities are in decline. Nothing could be further from the truth. He has also contributed to the BS about America’s failing public schools, also untrue. My wife and I watched the Kennedy Center honors yesterday, and were, as always, astounded by the talent, the diversity, the sheer creativity of the inductees. We continue to crank out and support these truly amazing, global, cultural geniuses. Hardly a measure of our decline. Fareed should try harder not to buy into the pessimism that he decries.
At what point does a service economy lose its ability deter or to defend itself, or others, given that weapons (to date) need to be manufactured? While arguable in definition, “war” is upon us and the US isn’t manufacturing fast enough to adequately defend others. I for one welcome more manufacturing capability in the US.
The largest share of income growth in the last decade has been the bottom quartile, followed by the second (25-50) quartile of household incomes Income and wealth inequality are real things but I think the latter much more so than the former due to rising costs of living Costs can be fixed through a strong supply focused approach to housing, healthcare, and education. Zoning deregulation, builder incentives, removing the federal guarantee on 4 year loans, and broadening support for technical and manufacturing schools
Great discussion. Fareed's range of knowledge, his depth in history and power of assimilation are exceptional and admirable: They all seem to be present at the tip of his tongue! Here's what comes to my mind very superficially: On China: Fareed sounded if the US were nice to China, hugged her leaders, treated them as co-equals with generosity, they would be equally nice in return and cooperate with the US in the evolution of a better international order. Despite being behind the US in so many matrices of economic development (agro-industrial sector vs service sector etc.), Fareed must be knowing, China sees herself as a fierce competitor with the US, trying to get to number one. The US opened her heart and offered the Chinese all assistance, turning China into a "workshop cum warehouse" of the world, expecting China would eventually join the community of nations willing to play by the rules. They would democratize with an open society and become a proto-type of America. Everyone knows what China did: From cheating on patent rights, tech secrets by reverse engineering etc., to bluffing on her military build-up in the South-China Sea to the blackmailing of the US during the pandemic (Covid) years, China presented evidence after evidence that she wouldn't be such a cooperating partner. China reneged on her assurance to the world that Hongkong would remain autonomous. Deng-Ping's promise of one country, two systems withered away. The looming question still remains: What the US would possibly do if the Chinese leaders decided to annex Taiwan by force. She's already bullying tiny countries from Bhutan, Nepal to Vietnam and Philippines -- leave aside formidable countries like Australia, Japan or India. The same question applies to the Russian-Ukrainian situation. In the case of Ukrainian helplessness, would Fareed recommend disintegration of Ukraine's sovereignty and Putin's free ride. And if it happens, what would the US do with all the cooperation of the NATO nations? So far, they have done very little other than burdening Ukraine with unbearable loans, selling to her their hardware or defense equipment or provoking Russia by bringing their nuclear installations closer to her border. The US withdrawal from the troubled zones -- where her protege(s) like Ukraine or Taiwan were left out to fend for themselves -- would be a repetition of Afghanistan. This is so fresh in the memory of everyone: The interlocutors of the Taliban Islamists were negotiating with the representatives of the Trump and Biden Admns in Doha, Qatar, assuring them that their imminent govt would accommodate all segments of the Afghan society, wouldn't kill or banish the defense personnel etc. But they had started indiscriminately killing all Afghans deemed to be against the Taliban during the time negotiation was going on. The US didn't do anything and sneaked out of the country. The American credentials as a dependable ally received a jolt and the world noticed it. Finally, Fareed draws a false equivalency between the US approach to the question of upsetting the borders in Ukraine and the West Bank (Israel). The scale of Russian invasion of a sovereign Ukraine renders the encroachments of the Jewish settlers in the West Bank insignificant. Although illegitimate and unethical, the settlers argued that they were securing by fortifying their borders against any future military incursions from the West Bank Palestinians. An off and on friendly PLA or Al-Fatah could any day be overthrown by a hard-core Islamist terrorist organization like Hamas. The Right-wing Israeli West Bank settlers could be persuaded to freeze their extension activities if only they hadn't been put in a perpetual mentality of war for survival. Since the formation of the state of Israel, the immigrant Jews, from a position of strength, would justify doing everything to fend off their existential threat from the Palestinian Islamists.
Nice conversation and always enjoy listening to what Fareed Zakaria has to say. I'll note that while I largely agree with his main points, I was a bit surprised at what I see as a failure to talk about income inequality. I actually think that is largely the through line that ties some of this together and is the real cause of much of the pessimism of the moment. Like the Gilded Age, times of technological change and laissez faire regulation lend themselves towards great accumulation of wealth in the hands of the few. Thus while the American middle and lower classes look longingly at what they see as the American Dream alive not in the United States, but in China, they're stuck working harder and harder just to stand still. The additional danger of the moment is that Democrats used to be more adept at mobilizing populist resentment to right the system. With the political reshuffling in modern decades putting that mantle largely in the Republican camp (the causes of which are myriad), it is hard to see a necessary reset to the system in the near term.
Agreed that Fareed does a great job describing the current situation. And agree that income inequality is what drives the pessimism in America. Certainly, it wouldn't hurt to onshore some basic industries. Especially things like medications, protective health gear, and ramp up our munitions industries to provide deterrence against Putin rollinghim back in Ukraine, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iran, Hamas, and China, amongst the one's that come immediately to mind. Push the 2 state solution in Israel/Palestine, but the ideology that Israel doesn't have a right to exist must not be allowed to flourish in a Palestinian state. Crushing the material basis for that ideology is what israel is doing right now. Unfortunately, since israel withdrew from the Gaza strip in 2006, the infrastructure of that ideology has become more and more powerful. Which is why even if there's a ceasefire and the hostages are returned, israel must continue its efforts to dismantle the munition factories, rocket launchers, and other military facilities and destroy the military forces of Hamas.
Thank you for the insightful response. I am no expert on the US and I am not a US citizen. My question is, is income inequality the main challenge or is it the deep polarisation across the US... conservatism vs. radical left?
Engaging in unnecessary wars in ME has derailed American train of prosperity and greatness. They should have focused inwards after winning the cold war, to help its own people and make policies that will serve the interests of ordinary Americans.
"America’s Dangerous Pessimism" this pessimism is not only in America. A recent study by John Burn-Murdock shows that words relating to caution and worry have been more frequently used in Western publications in the last 20 years, while words relating to progress have been falling in frequency. It seems that decline and the frequency of worrying words in literature go hand in hand.
I agree with his basic thesis, that the US is not in a decline which justifies withdrawal from world affairs. However, he deeply under states the internal problems the country has. Losing mfg jobs at the same rate for 70 years might be accurate, but over the last 40 years we have lost them faster than other developed nations. The USA has a large trade deficit and large foreign debts. It is China, not USA, which violates WTO on a systematic scale. In other developed nations, mfg workers who lose one job get another mfg job at comparable wages. In the us, they are permanently unemployed or end up in low paying service jobs. Trade agreements were sold to voters with the promise that workers would be protected from competition from low paid foreign workers. Yet nothing is further from the truth. The reason to import something is that it is cheaper than the equivalent domestic item. Why would that be? Primarily because foreign workers have lower wages, less environmental and safety regulation. What do you think housing , health care, and higher education cost in China? Why do you think China is running a trade surplus and the US a deficit? Income inequality is very bad in the USA and getting worse. The middle class is a smaller and smaller portion of the population. By some measures African Americans are worse off now than in 1960! Please get a CLUE!
If you think China is violating WTO in a systematic fashion why didn’t the US file WTO complaints? The US is the one rejected WTO ruling and jeopardized the appointments of the judges in the appeals panel of WTO. If WTO rules in the U.S. favor and China refuses it then the US can impose sanctions on China. Many people in the US just regurgitated what they heard from Fox News or ranting of populist politicians at political rallies. If the US believes the WTO has loopholes that china takes advantage of and it can propose reforms. The US has more friends internationally than China. It’s easier to blame others for your own problems, isn’t it? The jobs went to China because the capitalists on both sides of the pacific believed that this will benefit them more. There is no conspiracy or cheating. Do you think American businessmen are idiots? Are they so naive or stupid to be tricked by Chinese?
Fareed makes the best optimistic case for continued American numero uno position. However, his reading of history is very selective, which is where the lacunae in his arguments emerge from.
Very interesting conversation....i thoroughly enjoyed it. I think what everyone is underestimating, though, is that the internal fracture of America is by far the biggest problem we face (not China or the emergence of a multipolar world)
2 issues. The US imperial wealth extraction tool is the US dollar. The BRICS are leading the next financial order - no mention. With regard to Eisenhower- Zakaria focuses on the wrong end of the Eisenhowers political life. His farewell address cautioned against the Military Industrial Compex. His worst fears have been realized.
Thank you for inviting Fareed Zakaria. Many have knowledge, fewer have insight and even fewer have wisdom and far fewer have credibility. He is in that 1% amongst global pundits who is endowed with all of the attributes. And thanks for staying humble after all this dear Fareed.
You are touting neoliberal views of economic success. You need to look up FRED data on private sector savings and credit card debt across the wages spectrum. US debt issuance to GDP is no longer a useful measure of how the economy is performing. Frankly, it is bs.
Thank you, Fareed, for reminding us that we truly live in a great nation. We have a LOT of accomplishments as a nation, even in the worst of times. I would suggest that Americans, through freedom of speech in all forms, do more critical self examination, per individual citizen, than any other nation. At this point in history, we seem to be hypercritical of ourselves- but even more so of each other. Biden has passed exceptional legislation, such as the CHIPS Act, that will prepare us for the inevitably of China sucking up Taiwan. Add that to the infrastructure act, & our economy is becoming more stable.
Two things to note about the GDP - the US has gone down in terms of share of world economy adjusting for purchasing power, and also the dollar is very strong right now, otherwise even in nominal terms its share of global GDP would be less. In addition to this, its share of utilizable GDP has shrunk. Back decades ago, many countries GDP was caught up in substinence activities like farming, not so much these days, whereas the US already had a very high percent of utilizable GDP even decades ago. It is absolutely not as economically dominant as it was in generations past, though it is still very large. In addition, the US is no longer economically self-sufficient anymore. If the global economy breaks up, it will damage the US in ways which were just not possible in the mid 20th century, when the US was both an economic behemoth and self sufficient. The days when the US was the largest producer and exporter of most things including raw materials, food, and fuel are beyond over at this point.
I think the US can be self sufficient. There's a lot of natural resources across our country, we just export a lot of it instead of turning it into stuff ourselves because "global market". When we get into a hot war, we'll see how much we can do ourselves or with our allies. We don't seem to get our shit together until we have a existential threat.
Econ graphs show US which party manages to Stink and Shrink the GDP in pur lifetimes, including Reagan.Just about any metric will do, not just GDP and priductivity. Biden proves the Democrats success. 🗳️💙🌊
A very interesting discussion and always a pleasure to listen to Fareed’s perspectives. However I think his analysis of China and its strategic objectives seems to be through rose tinted glasses.
We could debate economic strength and offer various interpretations of success or decline, but that would be to miss the point. It is not about quantity, but quality. Having tried it the way Fareed prefers, people want change. That should be enough. There is no best way to organize an economy. There are a multitude of options, and each comes with benefits and trade-offs. The key is to articulate a future vision that everyone can get behind. Plus, Fareed is curiously unwilling or unable to consider the profound implications of climate change, and the encompassing paradigm shift that entails, relegating economic liberalism to a passing age, as it is no longer attractive, or appropriate.
Please provide me with accurate data.My understanding is that USA percentage of global gdp corrected for purchasing power is around 15’% not 25%. Is this correct or is Fareed looking at different data?
It's time that an American commentator recognize that the US is currently the biggest violator of a "rules-based international order." Zakaria seemed headed towards a further comment that such policies are ultimately self-defeating.
Mr. Rafeek Zakaria, father of Fareed; was a prominent Socialist Activist in India occupying a stellar position in the Congress political sky in the late 40s and early 50s till Nehru saw them as competitors coming down heavily on them. I used to read their Magazine, "Forum".
Pessimism or optimism are based on things that happen in the real world. When things go well, when the economy goes well, when people are not afraid of losing their jobs, when they see that schools are performing well, they feel optimistic. When they see that their government is genuinely trying to do something to really solve their problems, they feel optimistic. The most dramatic change from pessimism to optimism happened in 1932. People were pessimistic because the Hoover administration did nothing for them for three years. The day after Roosevelt took office, their situation was as dire as the day before, but they had hope based on the record of Rossevelt's performance as New York governor. Do not talk to people about pessimism or optimism. Get your politicians to deliver real achievements to better people's lives and optimism will return. Keep doing what you have been doing, pessimism will deepen.
Really great points Fareed. Unfortunately, America operates this weird system known as "Democracy". The person who gets to make people feel either the best or the worst about the present and/ or the future is going to win. The American electorate is not well informed and so they scare easily. Also, the whole notion of "service economy" doesn't stand up to scrutiny. China has been moving up the food chain and is developing a strong service sector (is may be shaky now but they'll get there). Same with India and many other countries. That's the natural trend of things. You start from the bottom (agriculture), move to manufacturing and then services. Manufacturing has to be a key part of any robust advanced economy.
Respected, Highly respect your thoughts. Solutions of US is facing by Mr Jeffrey sachs on testimony on 20th November in Security Council in 10 minutes only. So thoughtful Solutions of all prevailing issues.
The pessimism has its origins in the realization that America does not really stand for justice, peace, truth, and morality. The history is replete with examples of the country's stance only for the opposite of these aspirations! Putin's Valdai speech a few months ago is a masterpiece of this revelation!
Back when i was in college, my IR Professor told me a story. She was doing her PhD in IR in the late 80s and took her class to the soviet embassy in 89 (a friendly visit to meet the soviet ambassador). The man kept on boasting about how amazing and well soviet union was and how well things were. According to my prof, when they stepped out, the students started laughing at the guy). She told them to learn something from this. The man is not trying to convince us. He is trying to convince himself that all will be well when he can clearly see the writing on the wall. When you listen to the US Uniparty establishment and their mouth pieces like Fareed Zakaria, you can see that more than others, they are trying to convince themselves that things are going well and all will be fine. Can anyone else see how hard he is trying to convince everyone that US is still the top dog??
Just want to know if Fareed updated his views on SUPPORTING anti-Black PRO-aparthied policy in South Africa since his days as the president of Yale Political Union Club in 1986. Lets us know where you stand today my "brown" friend.
Hey Fareed, big long term fan. Wasn't the western order (USA) worth nothing when they didn't uphold the Budapest memorandum? You can join NATO (military defense alliance), as long as we don't have to defend you. Isnt it all too hypocritical for the western order to unravel? Boots on the ground or what is your word worth?
The pandemic has caused allot of concern over dependence on trade (shipping) for necessities (protective gear, medications, etc). Of course we should have prepared 🥴
Today, it seems to be, that the current actual crisis in the world isn't enough. there is some morbid need to spread horror, fear, panic, dystopia and pessimism.
The move from a middle income country to a rich country is based on the exchange rate of dollar and not on the quality of living. For example, there are many countries in which the quality of living is better than the US even though the per capita income is low. There may be more poor in the USA in terms of percentage of population because the cost of living is very high.
Fareed is bright and makes some pointed observations of considerable value, but everything is refracted through a prism of apologetics for an American Empire (see Hudson's "Super Imperialism") much of the rest of the world is itching to get out from under.
Zakaria is mistaken. In terms of PPP (purchasing power) the US economy is not 25% of the world economy. Furthermore, the decline of the dollar in what is likely the biggest threat to our hegemonic ways , is accelerating with the Bricks network becoming more and more powerful and influential. As to our military, it is becoming a paper tiger that cannot supply Ukraine with the weapons needed in the conflict with Russia. It would take over a decade to find parity with Russia in armaments and munitions mfg
Regardless of how great Fareed Zakaria is as a thinker, he is demonstrably unable to rise above his station as an American collective. Fareed appears to claim that the "peace and stability" the world enjoys is the endowment of the United States. That's akin to saying shop owners enjoy "peace and tranquillity" as an endowment of the local mafia. Owners who do not share their earnings with the mafia experience less tranquility. Nations that resist or don't toe the Washington line naturally become restive, undermined, overthrown, bombed and invaded.
3:17 “We need to block the Chinese because in an open competition they’d do to well.” Except I think the issue is that it isn’t an open competition. China is using insanely extensive protectionism and all of the things you listed Biden as pursuing, China has been doing at an order of magnitudes higher degree for decades. I don’t think it’s an open competition if one of the players can’t play by the same rules as the other. Is it a fair race between two runners if one of them has to it with a broken leg?
Agree being against all trade would be mistaken by exemple the US need North America and I would push for including some central america countries that want in firstly, second yes, the Pacific is important to the US some kind of trade have to happen. And some immigration reform cause yes border security is important but US like others countries will have ( already need) immigrants ( most of all skills/youngers)
Before China's "Century of Shame", China had a strong internal economy and didn't need to engage the outside world. I think some of that still exists for China and maybe always will. I think China will survive with or without the West. Am I right about that or not?
The Chinese attitude to Taiwan is...the CPC can wait and to continue to negotiate with the KMT in Taiwan.but the CPC cannot negotiate with the DPP in Taiwan and the CPC is unwilling to negotiate and wait for the DPP in Taiwan. .
Money isn't the issue. It never was the issue. Money comes from doing the right things for the right reasons. Those who have 'cashed out' on America are part of the problem. Where are American leaders? Where are the examples of 'putting the country first'? Everyone is more interested in looking good than doing good. THAT is what's in decline.
I found Fareed's historical background to the roots of US Republicans persistent isolationist attitude very illuminating. Especially the key role of Eisenhower in the creation of NATO versus Robert Taft's strong opposition to it and to the UN.
Why some one that is given a $5 job in corporate broadcasting and shouldn’t be optimistic and not to preach that we are doing great don’t you worry. If you are homeless and have no access to healthcare and by millions living in prison be optimistic, I’m making millions
Israel and US standing is significantly eroded globally. Israel's prowess is likely overblown if you consider the underlying economic, social and political constructs, growing orthodoxy, authoritarianism, lopsided religious sects and its welfare status, apartheid conditions, shrinking demography, $4+ billion in US aid annually, all contribute to a need to reconfigure its entire system.
Americans are not pessimistic on our abilty to be world leaders, we are just done with trusting our leaders to become involved in other countries affairs. We are done paying for policing the seas around the world. Leave us alone for a while and we'll stay out of your ploitics as well.
【Hope many will read this tesponse】17:26 re China: “ (U.S.) reacting more strongly than the (China) issue deserves” - DISagree. Zaharia, although being a social economic and international affairs expert, did not see the true nature of Sino-American confrontation, did not see the real ambition of the Chinese communist party CCP: what the CCP wants is the so-called “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, which means to put China back to the center of the world, as in the views of the ancient Chinese emperors that countries “under the heaven” would all obey and praise the Chinese emperor. That was the kind of “national rejuvenation” the CCP/Xi Jinping wants. The outcome of that kind of competition is either you yield or cow-tow to CCP, or you teach it a lesson so that it gives up that wrong and stupid ambition. There is no any other outcome, but Zaharia didn’t see that; he didn’t see the true ambition of China (more exactly CCP or more exactly Xi Jinping)
GDP? You better rethink that indicator, Fareed -- for the US in particular it includes vast amounts of useless rents, none of which translate into military power.
Someone needs to paint a picture of geopolitics in which America turns to isolation, especially as it pertains to what it means to the average citizen. For example, if the PRC takes control of Taiwan, it gains control over almost all the high end semi-conductor manufacturing. First, it would take years for such manufacturing to be set up in America and, second, the high tech race tilts towards China. As for western Europe, it will rearm, likely eschewing. as much as possible. purchasing any American weapon systems. This then has implications for manufacturing jobs in the U.S. A smaller global footprint would mean reduced expenditure in the arms industry (i.e., job losses and, maybe, talent flight to western Europe). A vicious cycle ensues making that much harder for any future administration to reverse the trends. In other areas of the globe, Africa is ceded to China as a sphere of influence. South America likely will lean towards China, with the aid of Brazil. China may even foment more instability in Latin America resulting in more migration northwards to the southern border resulting in increase friction with Mexico, which, by the way, is tightly integrated with U.S. manufacturing, especially the automotive industry. In sum, the global system that delivered consumer goods at ever decreasing prices is eviscerated, inflation will skyrocket.
Zakaria has something important to say, and the audio quality should be better to convey what he's saying. Although there is no noise, the technical quality is not very good.
realism beats liberalism … these same narratives is what got us here, you can look at what GDP is now and what it was 30 years or you can look that’s not just a supply for trumpism there’s demand as well
He asks the wrong question, assuming a fair playing field. Actually, capitalism has "artificially" pushed China/Russia autocracies to the same technological/scientific level as in the "west". Sure "we" benefited greatly in the interim, but the cost was obvious from the beginning as it is blatantly obvious now. Just one example, nobody sane would have expected Russia to become a liberal country by appeasement, the sole driver was capitalism.
Fareed neglects to describe why these nice neighbors are nervous. They're in the Himalayas with armies to claw territory from India, Nepal and Bhutan and essentially doing the same thing in the Pacific and South China sea, carving out territory in the ocean, depriving Vietnam, Philippines of territorial boundaries and natural resources, terrorizing Philippine fisherman and Coast Guard as they go about their business.
Concern is about China and BRI. China replacing (if not replaced already) America as dominant player in trade and with at comes influence. They blocked American information technology companies and created their own system that now has access to American market through TikTok and others. American meanwhile spending billions keeping world trade routes, Securety, ect and China doesn’t contribute much to it. Meanwhile Turks undermining American foreign policy interests and setting up their empire in Africa and west Asia.
What Fareed and many China watchers seem to miss, perhaps on purpose, about Chinese growing military strength is China’s expeditionary war fighting ability. China has developed their land, sea, and air forces at a rapid pace since Xi rose to power. However, we’ve all recently seen that experience and battle-testing doctrine is as important as equipment, especially with autocratic governments whose militaries function in rigid hierarchies. As unpalatable as they’ve become in the discourse in recent times, the global war on terror and other operations in the 00s/10s kept the American military sharp. Supporting France in the Sahel and intelligence operations on behalf of Ukraine have had a similar effect. History has not smiled on China’s recent or dated military, especially at sea. Historically, China fights wars in China. To my knowledge, the PLA’s last true expeditionary foray was their short and disastrous war with Vietnam in 1979. Their most recent “actions” have been cartoonish border skirmishes with India. The PLAN may have more boats in the water, but they have less tonnage and fewer carriers than the USN. Now it should be obvious that the US’s primary concern is the CCP ordering the PLA/N/AF to take Taiwan by force. The question then is will the US have the political capital to mobilize American armed forces to defend Taiwan? Furthermore, what will be the strategic and economic fallout of such a decision?
France is fine, geographically and demographically blessed which supports its independent actions on world stage. Agricultural, industrial, military and security activities established. Politically stable generally with social adjustments to make.
Americans are pessimistic because we see our own lives become more difficult year by year and generation by generation. But to look backward and praise the world America made is a grave mistake. Presently 35 countries are contemplating joining the BRICS alliance. It's necessary to understand that this country is in heavy, but by no means catastrophic, debt...YET. We could under the right conditions continue to pay the interest and even a bit more of our debt for a good long time. But China is doing everything to form a coalition that would make the dollar weaker or collapse it's value. That alone would make paying on our national debt much more expensive, depending on how successful BRICS is in devaluing our currency. Currently, or in the most recent past, international trade was conducted in American dollars. If BRICS succeeds in making our ever growing debt ever more expensive that means that our own government has no recourse but to look to our own population to find enough money to pay our debt, much of which is held by China itself. The future for the American population is inflation and taxation followed by lowered standards of living. We conceivably could finally require our fabulously wealthy corporations, families and individuals to contribute a much more fair and reasonable amount toward the economic stability of our country but the truth is that their wealth is internationalized and tucked away out of governmental grasp. They won't contribute much and certainly not voluntarily. The weight of a weak dollar, expensive imported goods and a much more expensive national debt will fall most upon those of us who have the least. So listen to this video with this in mind. We are in a fight for our standard of living and presently even with China and Russia facing economic and social problems we are in a fight for our lives. The assumption that China is going to have trouble matching America's technological and military might is faulty. North Korea has poured all it has into high tech military rocketry. Their alliance with China which has its own strong military and China's simply overwhelming human resources and Russia's fossil fuels makes China and Russia strong. Throw in countries like Iran and other countries that were formerly firmly in our corner but now waver or outright defect to BRICS and you see that we aren't as strong as we like to pretend we are. Europe is weaker too. Now we must talk about the failures of Capitalism, which apply to all of the countries of both blocs, American/European and China/BRICS. But that's a long dissertation with no room for discussion here. But there are variables in that discussion which apply to this one.
I think Fareed is a very well learned and intellectual speaker. But I think he misses the fundamental issue. He views the global free trade order as something to be maintained at all costs and he sees the us turning away from the order that was built after ww2 and the cold war period as foolish and short sighted. Yet I think he speaks from the point of view of one who has benefited from that order, one who has prospered under its auspices. And while I can objectively say that the American led free trade order has been a boon for humanity. It has run its course. To pursue it now would be to court the very same death by over extension as he speaks of happening to the British Empire. A death that we hastened and secured as a vital security prerogative. That very same death will happen to us at the hands of whatever power rises to challenge US dominance. Be it a chinese successor state, whatever state arises from the ashes of putins Russia(possibly a Chechnya free of the Russian oppression or maybe the Tatars) history often makes fools of those who try to predict the future but I know that the American people find the Orders prosperity to have largely past us by while others benefit, and in the wake of ever growing economic inequality, political unrest, and social breakdown, there are very few people who see something worth saving in a broken, ossified, outdated system. America will retreat into herself, retain connections to those parts of the world bound by blood, gold, or loyalty. And watch the rest of the world grow into something that rhymes with what it's looked like in the past. A brutal free for all of regional powers trying to secure their needs and reacting to the actions of others. While those too weak, unlucky, or exhausted to fight being swept into one bloc or the other in order to survive. Life will go on. Humanity will endure, and the government that rules over the American people will evolve as the people do or it will break under the strain and something new will take its place. The government is and has always been separate from the people. The government will change or die. The people will endure.
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"Always a lobby for the past but not the future."
Fareed has been crushing the analysis game for decades now. Love this person!
Thank for extended conversation with Fareed❤
The problem is that both wealth and power is concentrated in very few hands
Every time I listen to Fareed, I learn something new. Very insightful!
The problem of American foreign policy is it has been predicated on military hegemony that is fading and an economic yoke around the US economy. Using military spending as a leading indicator of health underlines this problem.
Thanks to Fareed and FA for this thoughtful discussion. I think there is a little bit of American exceptionalism bias here, but I agree that this outlook is much closer to the reality of our situation than predominant narratives being pushed. We need to get out of our own way and start actually upholding the system that both has allowed us such great success but also been historically beneficial to most nations on earth.
It’s disappointing that Fareed doesn’t see the irony in his observation. Just last week he confirmed the pessimism-driven perception that American universities are in decline. Nothing could be further from the truth. He has also contributed to the BS about America’s failing public schools, also untrue. My wife and I watched the Kennedy Center honors yesterday, and were, as always, astounded by the talent, the diversity, the sheer creativity of the inductees. We continue to crank out and support these truly amazing, global, cultural geniuses. Hardly a measure of our decline. Fareed should try harder not to buy into the pessimism that he decries.
At what point does a service economy lose its ability deter or to defend itself, or others, given that weapons (to date) need to be manufactured? While arguable in definition, “war” is upon us and the US isn’t manufacturing fast enough to adequately defend others. I for one welcome more manufacturing capability in the US.
Interesting question...
Wealth and income inequality! That's the reason Fareed.
The largest share of income growth in the last decade has been the bottom quartile, followed by the second (25-50) quartile of household incomes
Income and wealth inequality are real things but I think the latter much more so than the former due to rising costs of living
Costs can be fixed through a strong supply focused approach to housing, healthcare, and education. Zoning deregulation, builder incentives, removing the federal guarantee on 4 year loans, and broadening support for technical and manufacturing schools
Excellent analysis by Fareed. He and Chrstianna Amapour are the only two CNN commentators worth following.
Great discussion. Fareed's range of knowledge, his depth in history and power of assimilation are exceptional and admirable: They all seem to be present at the tip of his tongue!
Here's what comes to my mind very superficially: On China: Fareed sounded if the US were nice to China, hugged her leaders, treated them as co-equals with generosity, they would be equally nice in return and cooperate with the US in the evolution of a better international order. Despite being behind the US in so many matrices of economic development (agro-industrial sector vs service sector etc.), Fareed must be knowing, China sees herself as a fierce competitor with the US, trying to get to number one. The US opened her heart and offered the Chinese all assistance, turning China into a "workshop cum warehouse" of the world, expecting China would eventually join the community of nations willing to play by the rules. They would democratize with an open society and become a proto-type of America.
Everyone knows what China did: From cheating on patent rights, tech secrets by reverse engineering etc., to bluffing on her military build-up in the South-China Sea to the blackmailing of the US during the pandemic (Covid) years, China presented evidence after evidence that she wouldn't be such a cooperating partner. China reneged on her assurance to the world that Hongkong would remain autonomous. Deng-Ping's promise of one country, two systems withered away. The looming question still remains: What the US would possibly do if the Chinese leaders decided to annex Taiwan by force. She's already bullying tiny countries from Bhutan, Nepal to Vietnam and Philippines -- leave aside formidable countries like Australia, Japan or India.
The same question applies to the Russian-Ukrainian situation. In the case of Ukrainian helplessness, would Fareed recommend disintegration of Ukraine's sovereignty and Putin's free ride. And if it happens, what would the US do with all the cooperation of the NATO nations? So far, they have done very little other than burdening Ukraine with unbearable loans, selling to her their hardware or defense equipment or provoking Russia by bringing their nuclear installations closer to her border.
The US withdrawal from the troubled zones -- where her protege(s) like Ukraine or Taiwan were left out to fend for themselves -- would be a repetition of Afghanistan. This is so fresh in the memory of everyone: The interlocutors of the Taliban Islamists were negotiating with the representatives of the Trump and Biden Admns in Doha, Qatar, assuring them that their imminent govt would accommodate all segments of the Afghan society, wouldn't kill or banish the defense personnel etc. But they had started indiscriminately killing all Afghans deemed to be against the Taliban during the time negotiation was going on. The US didn't do anything and sneaked out of the country. The American credentials as a dependable ally received a jolt and the world noticed it.
Finally, Fareed draws a false equivalency between the US approach to the question of upsetting the borders in Ukraine and the West Bank (Israel). The scale of Russian invasion of a sovereign Ukraine renders the encroachments of the Jewish settlers in the West Bank insignificant. Although illegitimate and unethical, the settlers argued that they were securing by fortifying their borders against any future military incursions from the West Bank Palestinians. An off and on friendly PLA or Al-Fatah could any day be overthrown by a hard-core Islamist terrorist organization like Hamas. The Right-wing Israeli West Bank settlers could be persuaded to freeze their extension activities if only they hadn't been put in a perpetual mentality of war for survival. Since the formation of the state of Israel, the immigrant Jews, from a position of strength, would justify doing everything to fend off their existential threat from the Palestinian Islamists.
Nice conversation and always enjoy listening to what Fareed Zakaria has to say. I'll note that while I largely agree with his main points, I was a bit surprised at what I see as a failure to talk about income inequality. I actually think that is largely the through line that ties some of this together and is the real cause of much of the pessimism of the moment. Like the Gilded Age, times of technological change and laissez faire regulation lend themselves towards great accumulation of wealth in the hands of the few.
Thus while the American middle and lower classes look longingly at what they see as the American Dream alive not in the United States, but in China, they're stuck working harder and harder just to stand still. The additional danger of the moment is that Democrats used to be more adept at mobilizing populist resentment to right the system. With the political reshuffling in modern decades putting that mantle largely in the Republican camp (the causes of which are myriad), it is hard to see a necessary reset to the system in the near term.
Agreed that Fareed does a great job describing the current situation. And agree that income inequality is what drives the pessimism in America. Certainly, it wouldn't hurt to onshore some basic industries. Especially things like medications, protective health gear, and ramp up our munitions industries to provide deterrence against Putin rollinghim back in Ukraine, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iran, Hamas, and China, amongst the one's that come immediately to mind. Push the 2 state solution in Israel/Palestine, but the ideology that Israel doesn't have a right to exist must not be allowed to flourish in a Palestinian state. Crushing the material basis for that ideology is what israel is doing right now. Unfortunately, since israel withdrew from the Gaza strip in 2006, the infrastructure of that ideology has become more and more powerful. Which is why even if there's a ceasefire and the hostages are returned, israel must continue its efforts to dismantle the munition factories, rocket launchers, and other military facilities and destroy the military forces of Hamas.
Thank you for the insightful response. I am no expert on the US and I am not a US citizen. My question is, is income inequality the main challenge or is it the deep polarisation across the US... conservatism vs. radical left?
Radical Left... please be @@mallikonduri
@@mallikonduri There is no real "radical left" in the US. The danger lies in the radical right-wing MAGAs.
Fared is just so smart and savvy! Love him!
Great interview, always liked Zakarias takes on the world.
Engaging in unnecessary wars in ME has derailed American train of prosperity and greatness. They should have focused inwards after winning the cold war, to help its own people and make policies that will serve the interests of ordinary Americans.
A Great Format Designed for Dissemination of Knowledge! Great job, Foreign Affairs Team.
Very nice. The elephant in the room is that the America is going down from every possible objective measure.
"America’s Dangerous Pessimism" this pessimism is not only in America. A recent study by John Burn-Murdock shows that words relating to caution and worry have been more frequently used in Western publications in the last 20 years, while words relating to progress have been falling in frequency. It seems that decline and the frequency of worrying words in literature go hand in hand.
I agree with his basic thesis, that the US is not in a decline which justifies withdrawal from world affairs. However, he deeply under states the internal problems the country has. Losing mfg jobs at the same rate for 70 years might be accurate, but over the last 40 years we have lost them faster than other developed nations. The USA has a large trade deficit and large foreign debts. It is China, not USA, which violates WTO on a systematic scale. In other developed nations, mfg workers who lose one job get another mfg job at comparable wages. In the us, they are permanently unemployed or end up in low paying service jobs. Trade agreements were sold to voters with the promise that workers would be protected from competition from low paid foreign workers. Yet nothing is further from the truth. The reason to import something is that it is cheaper than the equivalent domestic item. Why would that be? Primarily because foreign workers have lower wages, less environmental and safety regulation. What do you think housing , health care, and higher education cost in China? Why do you think China is running a trade surplus and the US a deficit? Income inequality is very bad in the USA and getting worse. The middle class is a smaller and smaller portion of the population. By some measures African Americans are worse off now than in 1960! Please get a CLUE!
If you think China is violating WTO in a systematic fashion why didn’t the US file WTO complaints? The US is the one rejected WTO ruling and jeopardized the appointments of the judges in the appeals panel of WTO. If WTO rules in the U.S. favor and China refuses it then the US can impose sanctions on China. Many people in the US just regurgitated what they heard from Fox News or ranting of populist politicians at political rallies. If the US believes the WTO has loopholes that china takes advantage of and it can propose reforms. The US has more friends internationally than China. It’s easier to blame others for your own problems, isn’t it? The jobs went to China because the capitalists on both sides of the pacific believed that this will benefit them more. There is no conspiracy or cheating. Do you think American businessmen are idiots? Are they so naive or stupid to be tricked by Chinese?
Fareed makes the best optimistic case for continued American numero uno position. However, his reading of history is very selective, which is where the lacunae in his arguments emerge from.
Very interesting conversation....i thoroughly enjoyed it.
I think what everyone is underestimating, though, is that the internal fracture of America is by far the biggest problem we face (not China or the emergence of a multipolar world)
I always liked Fareed Zakaria's analysis.
Thank you. An extremely interesting, relevant and compelling analysis.
good face job FZ. you keep making sense.
2 issues. The US imperial wealth extraction tool is the US dollar. The BRICS are leading the next financial order - no mention. With regard to Eisenhower- Zakaria focuses on the wrong end of the Eisenhowers political life. His farewell address cautioned against the Military Industrial Compex. His worst fears have been realized.
Thank you for inviting Fareed Zakaria. Many have knowledge, fewer have insight and even fewer have wisdom and far fewer have credibility. He is in that 1% amongst global pundits who is endowed with all of the attributes.
And thanks for staying humble after all this dear Fareed.
You are touting neoliberal views of economic success. You need to look up FRED data on private sector savings and credit card debt across the wages spectrum.
US debt issuance to GDP is no longer a useful measure of how the economy is performing. Frankly, it is bs.
Thank you, Fareed, for reminding us that we truly live in a great nation. We have a LOT of accomplishments as a nation, even in the worst of times. I would suggest that Americans, through freedom of speech in all forms, do more critical self examination, per individual citizen, than any other nation. At this point in history, we seem to be hypercritical of ourselves- but even more so of each other. Biden has passed exceptional legislation, such as the CHIPS Act, that will prepare us for the inevitably of China sucking up Taiwan. Add that to the infrastructure act, & our economy is becoming more stable.
How is US to negotiate from a position of strength, if manufacturing capability is neglected ?
Very, very good.
Excellent interview. Lots to think about.
Excellent!
Two things to note about the GDP - the US has gone down in terms of share of world economy adjusting for purchasing power, and also the dollar is very strong right now, otherwise even in nominal terms its share of global GDP would be less.
In addition to this, its share of utilizable GDP has shrunk. Back decades ago, many countries GDP was caught up in substinence activities like farming, not so much these days, whereas the US already had a very high percent of utilizable GDP even decades ago. It is absolutely not as economically dominant as it was in generations past, though it is still very large.
In addition, the US is no longer economically self-sufficient anymore. If the global economy breaks up, it will damage the US in ways which were just not possible in the mid 20th century, when the US was both an economic behemoth and self sufficient. The days when the US was the largest producer and exporter of most things including raw materials, food, and fuel are beyond over at this point.
I think the US can be self sufficient. There's a lot of natural resources across our country, we just export a lot of it instead of turning it into stuff ourselves because "global market". When we get into a hot war, we'll see how much we can do ourselves or with our allies. We don't seem to get our shit together until we have a existential threat.
Econ graphs show US which party manages to Stink and Shrink the GDP in pur lifetimes, including Reagan.Just about any metric will do, not just GDP and priductivity.
Biden proves the Democrats success. 🗳️💙🌊
Great podcast. As always, Fareed was superb in his analysis. Perhaps Biden should fire Blinken and hire Fareed
A very interesting discussion and always a pleasure to listen to Fareed’s perspectives. However I think his analysis of China and its strategic objectives seems to be through rose tinted glasses.
Some very brilliant thoughts and observstions from accomplished journalist, Fareed Zakaria.
We could debate economic strength and offer various interpretations of success or decline, but that would be to miss the point. It is not about quantity, but quality. Having tried it the way Fareed prefers, people want change. That should be enough. There is no best way to organize an economy. There are a multitude of options, and each comes with benefits and trade-offs. The key is to articulate a future vision that everyone can get behind. Plus, Fareed is curiously unwilling or unable to consider the profound implications of climate change, and the encompassing paradigm shift that entails, relegating economic liberalism to a passing age, as it is no longer attractive, or appropriate.
Great analysis, very probing insights!
Please provide me with accurate data.My understanding is that USA percentage of global gdp corrected for purchasing power is around 15’% not 25%. Is this correct or is Fareed looking at different data?
It's time that an American commentator recognize that the US is currently the biggest violator of a "rules-based international order." Zakaria seemed headed towards a further comment that such policies are ultimately self-defeating.
Mr. Rafeek Zakaria, father of Fareed; was a prominent Socialist Activist in India occupying a stellar position in the Congress political sky in the late 40s and early 50s till Nehru saw them as competitors coming down heavily on them. I used to read their Magazine, "Forum".
In two years on July 4th 2026 we celebrate the 250th birthday of our country. Wake up leaders and all of US and restore our faith, Happy Birthday
Excellent please bring more
Pessimism or optimism are based on things that happen in the real world. When things go well, when the economy goes well, when people are not afraid of losing their jobs, when they see that schools are performing well, they feel optimistic. When they see that their government is genuinely trying to do something to really solve their problems, they feel optimistic.
The most dramatic change from pessimism to optimism happened in 1932. People were pessimistic because the Hoover administration did nothing for them for three years. The day after Roosevelt took office, their situation was as dire as the day before, but they had hope based on the record of Rossevelt's performance as New York governor.
Do not talk to people about pessimism or optimism. Get your politicians to deliver real achievements to better people's lives and optimism will return. Keep doing what you have been doing, pessimism will deepen.
Is he a good economist or fairly well understands economy? Rebuilding our domestic industries is optimistic, not pessimistic, for our future.
Really great points Fareed. Unfortunately, America operates this weird system known as "Democracy". The person who gets to make people feel either the best or the worst about the present and/ or the future is going to win. The American electorate is not well informed and so they scare easily.
Also, the whole notion of "service economy" doesn't stand up to scrutiny. China has been moving up the food chain and is developing a strong service sector (is may be shaky now but they'll get there). Same with India and many other countries. That's the natural trend of things. You start from the bottom (agriculture), move to manufacturing and then services. Manufacturing has to be a key part of any robust advanced economy.
Respected, Highly respect your thoughts. Solutions of US is facing by Mr Jeffrey sachs on testimony on 20th November in Security Council in 10 minutes only. So thoughtful Solutions of all prevailing issues.
Better a pessimist than an optimist.
The pessimism has its origins in the realization that America does not really stand for justice, peace, truth, and morality. The history is replete with examples of the country's stance only for the opposite of these aspirations! Putin's Valdai speech a few months ago is a masterpiece of this revelation!
Great show.
Thats what will bring back American empire. A better attitude!
Excellent. Piece.
Back when i was in college, my IR Professor told me a story. She was doing her PhD in IR in the late 80s and took her class to the soviet embassy in 89 (a friendly visit to meet the soviet ambassador). The man kept on boasting about how amazing and well soviet union was and how well things were. According to my prof, when they stepped out, the students started laughing at the guy). She told them to learn something from this. The man is not trying to convince us. He is trying to convince himself that all will be well when he can clearly see the writing on the wall.
When you listen to the US Uniparty establishment and their mouth pieces like Fareed Zakaria, you can see that more than others, they are trying to convince themselves that things are going well and all will be fine. Can anyone else see how hard he is trying to convince everyone that US is still the top dog??
Just want to know if Fareed updated his views on SUPPORTING anti-Black PRO-aparthied policy in South Africa since his days as the president of Yale Political Union Club in 1986. Lets us know where you stand today my "brown" friend.
Hey Fareed, big long term fan.
Wasn't the western order (USA) worth nothing when they didn't uphold the Budapest memorandum?
You can join NATO (military defense alliance), as long as we don't have to defend you.
Isnt it all too hypocritical for the western order to unravel?
Boots on the ground or what is your word worth?
Excellent interview
Most of Fareeds predictions are wrong on economics & politics. But thats true of most analyst's.
Excellent talk. As expected from Fareed.
Always credible premise and solid reasoning from Fareed. Hopefully not just confirmation bias, I completely agree with his conclusions.
The pandemic has caused allot of concern over dependence on trade (shipping) for necessities (protective gear, medications, etc). Of course we should have prepared 🥴
Today, it seems to be, that the current actual crisis in the world isn't enough. there is some morbid need to spread horror, fear, panic, dystopia and pessimism.
The move from a middle income country to a rich country is based on the exchange rate of dollar and not on the quality of living. For example, there are many countries in which the quality of living is better than the US even though the per capita income is low.
There may be more poor in the USA in terms of percentage of population because the cost of living is very high.
Fareed is bright and makes some pointed observations of considerable value, but everything is refracted through a prism of apologetics for an American Empire (see Hudson's "Super Imperialism") much of the rest of the world is itching to get out from under.
Zakaria is mistaken. In terms of PPP (purchasing power) the US economy is not 25% of the world economy. Furthermore, the decline of the dollar in what is likely the biggest threat to our hegemonic ways , is accelerating with the Bricks network becoming more and more powerful and influential. As to our military, it is becoming a paper tiger that cannot supply Ukraine with the weapons needed in the conflict with Russia. It would take over a decade to find parity with Russia in armaments and munitions mfg
Regardless of how great Fareed Zakaria is as a thinker, he is demonstrably unable to rise above his station as an American collective.
Fareed appears to claim that the "peace and stability" the world enjoys is the endowment of the United States. That's akin to saying shop owners enjoy "peace and tranquillity" as an endowment of the local mafia. Owners who do not share their earnings with the mafia experience less tranquility. Nations that resist or don't toe the Washington line naturally become restive, undermined, overthrown, bombed and invaded.
3:17 “We need to block the Chinese because in an open competition they’d do to well.” Except I think the issue is that it isn’t an open competition. China is using insanely extensive protectionism and all of the things you listed Biden as pursuing, China has been doing at an order of magnitudes higher degree for decades. I don’t think it’s an open competition if one of the players can’t play by the same rules as the other. Is it a fair race between two runners if one of them has to it with a broken leg?
Agree being against all trade would be mistaken by exemple the US need North America and I would push for including some central america countries that want in firstly, second yes, the Pacific is important to the US some kind of trade have to happen. And some immigration reform cause yes border security is important but US like others countries will have ( already need) immigrants ( most of all skills/youngers)
Fareed is one of those people who haven’t changed his tune just because it’s financially convenient.
..hasn't... as he is ONE of those people.
Before China's "Century of Shame", China had a strong internal economy and didn't need to engage the outside world. I think some of that still exists for China and maybe always will. I think China will survive with or without the West. Am I right about that or not?
Superb deep & comprehensive analysis.
Excellent discussion!
Very interesting and useful. Just one correction Joseph Chamberlain was Neville’s father not brother.
US on path of Soviat Union !
The Chinese attitude to Taiwan is...the CPC can wait and to continue to negotiate with the KMT in Taiwan.but the CPC cannot negotiate with the DPP in Taiwan and the CPC is unwilling to negotiate and wait for the DPP in Taiwan. .
Money isn't the issue. It never was the issue. Money comes from doing the right things for the right reasons. Those who have 'cashed out' on America are part of the problem. Where are American leaders? Where are the examples of 'putting the country first'? Everyone is more interested in looking good than doing good. THAT is what's in decline.
One country two systems. How well did that go for Hong Kong?
The Steven Pinker of foreign policy.
I found Fareed's historical background to the roots of US Republicans persistent isolationist attitude very illuminating. Especially the key role of Eisenhower in the creation of NATO versus Robert Taft's strong opposition to it and to the UN.
Why some one that is given a $5 job in corporate broadcasting and shouldn’t be optimistic and not to preach that we are doing great don’t you worry. If you are homeless and have no access to healthcare and by millions living in prison be optimistic, I’m making millions
Israel and US standing is significantly eroded globally. Israel's prowess is likely overblown if you consider the underlying economic, social and political constructs, growing orthodoxy, authoritarianism, lopsided religious sects and its welfare status, apartheid conditions, shrinking demography, $4+ billion in US aid annually, all contribute to a need to reconfigure its entire system.
Too much engagement era conventional wisdom.
Wow! What a wonderful (scary) informative hour! So well done!
With NO b----t!
Americans are not pessimistic on our abilty to be world leaders, we are just done with trusting our leaders to become involved in other countries affairs. We are done paying for policing the seas around the world. Leave us alone for a while and we'll stay out of your ploitics as well.
【Hope many will read this tesponse】17:26 re China: “ (U.S.) reacting more strongly than the (China) issue deserves” - DISagree. Zaharia, although being a social economic and international affairs expert, did not see the true nature of Sino-American confrontation, did not see the real ambition of the Chinese communist party CCP: what the CCP wants is the so-called “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, which means to put China back to the center of the world, as in the views of the ancient Chinese emperors that countries “under the heaven” would all obey and praise the Chinese emperor. That was the kind of “national rejuvenation” the CCP/Xi Jinping wants. The outcome of that kind of competition is either you yield or cow-tow to CCP, or you teach it a lesson so that it gives up that wrong and stupid ambition. There is no any other outcome, but Zaharia didn’t see that; he didn’t see the true ambition of China (more exactly CCP or more exactly Xi Jinping)
GDP? You better rethink that indicator, Fareed -- for the US in particular it includes vast amounts of useless rents, none of which translate into military power.
Someone needs to paint a picture of geopolitics in which America turns to isolation, especially as it pertains to what it means to the average citizen. For example, if the PRC takes control of Taiwan, it gains control over almost all the high end semi-conductor manufacturing. First, it would take years for such manufacturing to be set up in America and, second, the high tech race tilts towards China. As for western Europe, it will rearm, likely eschewing. as much as possible. purchasing any American weapon systems. This then has implications for manufacturing jobs in the U.S. A smaller global footprint would mean reduced expenditure in the arms industry (i.e., job losses and, maybe, talent flight to western Europe). A vicious cycle ensues making that much harder for any future administration to reverse the trends. In other areas of the globe, Africa is ceded to China as a sphere of influence. South America likely will lean towards China, with the aid of Brazil. China may even foment more instability in Latin America resulting in more migration northwards to the southern border resulting in increase friction with Mexico, which, by the way, is tightly integrated with U.S. manufacturing, especially the automotive industry. In sum, the global system that delivered consumer goods at ever decreasing prices is eviscerated, inflation will skyrocket.
Zakaria has something important to say, and the audio quality should be better to convey what he's saying. Although there is no noise, the technical quality is not very good.
realism beats liberalism … these same narratives is what got us here, you can look at what GDP is now and what it was 30 years or you can look that’s not just a supply for trumpism there’s demand as well
He asks the wrong question, assuming a fair playing field. Actually, capitalism has "artificially" pushed China/Russia autocracies to the same technological/scientific level as in the "west". Sure "we" benefited greatly in the interim, but the cost was obvious from the beginning as it is blatantly obvious now. Just one example, nobody sane would have expected Russia to become a liberal country by appeasement, the sole driver was capitalism.
Wonderful piece, but please fix the audio.
Again, Fareed, manufacturing is crucial to military power -- you can't make weapons with services!
Fareed neglects to describe why these nice neighbors are nervous. They're in the Himalayas with armies to claw territory from India, Nepal and Bhutan and essentially doing the same thing in the Pacific and South China sea, carving out territory in the ocean, depriving Vietnam, Philippines of territorial boundaries and natural resources, terrorizing Philippine fisherman and Coast Guard as they go about their business.
Concern is about China and BRI. China replacing (if not replaced already) America as dominant player in trade and with at comes influence. They blocked American information technology companies and created their own system that now has access to American market through TikTok and others. American meanwhile spending billions keeping world trade routes, Securety, ect and China doesn’t contribute much to it. Meanwhile Turks undermining American foreign policy interests and setting up their empire in Africa and west Asia.
What Fareed and many China watchers seem to miss, perhaps on purpose, about Chinese growing military strength is China’s expeditionary war fighting ability. China has developed their land, sea, and air forces at a rapid pace since Xi rose to power. However, we’ve all recently seen that experience and battle-testing doctrine is as important as equipment, especially with autocratic governments whose militaries function in rigid hierarchies.
As unpalatable as they’ve become in the discourse in recent times, the global war on terror and other operations in the 00s/10s kept the American military sharp. Supporting France in the Sahel and intelligence operations on behalf of Ukraine have had a similar effect. History has not smiled on China’s recent or dated military, especially at sea. Historically, China fights wars in China. To my knowledge, the PLA’s last true expeditionary foray was their short and disastrous war with Vietnam in 1979. Their most recent “actions” have been cartoonish border skirmishes with India. The PLAN may have more boats in the water, but they have less tonnage and fewer carriers than the USN.
Now it should be obvious that the US’s primary concern is the CCP ordering the PLA/N/AF to take Taiwan by force. The question then is will the US have the political capital to mobilize American armed forces to defend Taiwan? Furthermore, what will be the strategic and economic fallout of such a decision?
France is fine, geographically and demographically blessed which supports its independent actions on world stage. Agricultural, industrial, military and security activities established. Politically stable generally with social adjustments to make.
Stop Netanyahu now, Israel.
Americans are pessimistic because we see our own lives become more difficult year by year and generation by generation. But to look backward and praise the world America made is a grave mistake.
Presently 35 countries are contemplating joining the BRICS alliance. It's necessary to understand that this country is in heavy, but by no means catastrophic, debt...YET. We could under the right conditions continue to pay the interest and even a bit more of our debt for a good long time. But China is doing everything to form a coalition that would make the dollar weaker or collapse it's value. That alone would make paying on our national debt much more expensive, depending on how successful BRICS is in devaluing our currency. Currently, or in the most recent past, international trade was conducted in American dollars. If BRICS succeeds in making our ever growing debt ever more expensive that means that our own government has no recourse but to look to our own population to find enough money to pay our debt, much of which is held by China itself.
The future for the American population is inflation and taxation followed by lowered standards of living. We conceivably could finally require our fabulously wealthy corporations, families and individuals to contribute a much more fair and reasonable amount toward the economic stability of our country but the truth is that their wealth is internationalized and tucked away out of governmental grasp. They won't contribute much and certainly not voluntarily. The weight of a weak dollar, expensive imported goods and a much more expensive national debt will fall most upon those of us who have the least.
So listen to this video with this in mind. We are in a fight for our standard of living and presently even with China and Russia facing economic and social problems we are in a fight for our lives.
The assumption that China is going to have trouble matching America's technological and military might is faulty. North Korea has poured all it has into high tech military rocketry. Their alliance with China which has its own strong military and China's simply overwhelming human resources and Russia's fossil fuels makes China and Russia strong. Throw in countries like Iran and other countries that were formerly firmly in our corner but now waver or outright defect to BRICS and you see that we aren't as strong as we like to pretend we are. Europe is weaker too.
Now we must talk about the failures of Capitalism, which apply to all of the countries of both blocs, American/European and China/BRICS. But that's a long dissertation with no room for discussion here. But there are variables in that discussion which apply to this one.
Great interview 👍
it has to do with the iraq invasion...
I think Fareed is a very well learned and intellectual speaker. But I think he misses the fundamental issue. He views the global free trade order as something to be maintained at all costs and he sees the us turning away from the order that was built after ww2 and the cold war period as foolish and short sighted. Yet I think he speaks from the point of view of one who has benefited from that order, one who has prospered under its auspices. And while I can objectively say that the American led free trade order has been a boon for humanity. It has run its course. To pursue it now would be to court the very same death by over extension as he speaks of happening to the British Empire. A death that we hastened and secured as a vital security prerogative. That very same death will happen to us at the hands of whatever power rises to challenge US dominance. Be it a chinese successor state, whatever state arises from the ashes of putins Russia(possibly a Chechnya free of the Russian oppression or maybe the Tatars) history often makes fools of those who try to predict the future but I know that the American people find the Orders prosperity to have largely past us by while others benefit, and in the wake of ever growing economic inequality, political unrest, and social breakdown, there are very few people who see something worth saving in a broken, ossified, outdated system. America will retreat into herself, retain connections to those parts of the world bound by blood, gold, or loyalty. And watch the rest of the world grow into something that rhymes with what it's looked like in the past. A brutal free for all of regional powers trying to secure their needs and reacting to the actions of others. While those too weak, unlucky, or exhausted to fight being swept into one bloc or the other in order to survive. Life will go on. Humanity will endure, and the government that rules over the American people will evolve as the people do or it will break under the strain and something new will take its place. The government is and has always been separate from the people. The government will change or die. The people will endure.