To me, it seems like people were calling Fortnite cringe because they quit, rather than quitting because it was "cringe". There was a time when a lot of players were falling out of love of the game until Zero Build came in because of how high the skill floor was getting.
The odds of getting the same average placement in 4 games is 1/396, or about 0.25%, which is low but isn't too low. The reason it isn't 1/100^4 is because 1/100^4 expresses the chances of guessing the exact same number in the same order. Such as: 1 - 44, 2 - 13, 3 - 95, 4 - 60 (this isn't even possible in Fortnite since 2 different people can't get the same placement in a set lobby). Whereas in this scenario where average of the 4 numbers has to be the same, it can be a variety of combinations. For example: Player 1: 51st, 51st, 50th, 50th Player 2: 1st, 1st, 100th, 100th Both these players have the same average placement of 50.5 since the sum of all their placements add up to 202. Therefore, for 2 players to have the same average placement throughout 4 games, they need to have the same sum of placements. Since the lowest possible placement is 1st, lowest sum can be 4 and the highest can be 400 (100*4). This means that the sum of placements of a player can range from 4-400, which gives the probability of 1/396 them having the same average placements.
if you roll two 1-6 dice, do you have the same probability of getting a 2 as a 6? The answer is no. While there are 396 possibilities of combined placements, that does not mean each placement has an equal chance and therefore makes the math to calculate the probability more complex. Random numbers also aren't realistic, as two players tied at a certain spot would be similar in skill level and would make their average placements much more likely to match.
@radicalaim I agree with the last part of your response that random numbers differ from actual placement of people in a game. However, I provided solution to that as that was the mathematical problem presented in the video. If you roll two 1-6 dice, the probability of getting each number will be 1/6, therefore, the odds of getting a 2 = odds of getting a 6. While it's true that not all distinct 396 sums are equally likely to come out, as values like 4 (1*4) and 400 (100*4) only have 1/100^4 chances of resulting from random generation. Whereas an average of 50 would be much higher since there are various combinations with the average of 50. However, the last paragraph was about calculating the chances of getting a specific average. The problem is to find out what are the chances that any given average (thus also sum) might occur twice. Therefore, it should be independent of the individual probabilities of getting each average.
@@eo-fikretalp1221 you're wrong. Just apply the probability to what you're trying to work out and you'll see that. You're implying that this would happen every 400ish tournaments, which is completely wrong. The answer is 1/200^4=/1/1.6 billion
@radicalaim I see your other comment that you ran a simulation, and got 1/205. While I'm confident in my answer I would still want to see how you found that value as that is also reasonable compared to other comments and you seem to actually understand the question.
Using a coin flip to determine the winner of a competitive sport is a HUGE L!!! It doesn’t get any worse than this. Have a shootout type end game set up in case this happens. Let the teams duel it out in game. A FRIGGIN COIN FLIP ARE YOU SERIOUS EPIC???
To calculate the chances of a tie in percentages you'd just have to divide 100% with 100 four times so 100/(100^4)=0,000001 which is one in 100 million which is completely absurd. The number would be even more absurd if you would factor in the other tiebreakers.
You're not looking for 2 players with the same exact history, you're looking for 2 players with the same average. There are 400 choices, so at most there's a 1 in 400 chance of having a tie.
I feel like people forget that there’s still a lot left to cover from early Fortnite tournaments. I feel like winter, secret, and summer skirmishes are much more forgotten than fall skirmish.
Since there are 400 choices (100 placement choices * 4 games), the maximum bound for the odds of both players having the same average placement is 1 in 400. However, it is far more likely to get an average placement towards the center, since there are more sums which add up to central numbers. For example, there is only 1 way to get an average placement of 1, but a ton of ways to get an average placement of 50 (23,48,82,47 for example). This means the distribution of average placement is not random, but instead it will follow a normal distribution. This significantly increases the chances of placements being the same. I wrote a script that runs the simulation 10 millions times and got a probability of 1 in 208.
Probably best way to get an approximation on likelihood of same avg. placement is: consider these players will place an avg. of at most 50. Then at 4 games multiply that by 4 and you get something like "likelihood of 2 numbers picked between 1 and 200 being the same which is 1/200 or 0.5%". Obviously, this is not mathematically correct, just a good way to gauge. Realistically, the probability is higher, since players are likely to have avg. placement between 20 and 50 and that "the number picked between 1 and 200 must be always even" so it's more close to 2%.
can you make a short on fazing into someones box every time - edit the cone to one tile and crouch walk into the corner of the cone while spraying the floor below you and you will get in every time - asking for the 16th time
Intersting fact they actually used to have coin flips in the game for a long time even in online tournaments where they basically just gave you a random number between 0 and 7 and the higher the better. At some point they even had coin flips and time alive at the same time but i think they removed coin flips so higher points still work
0.05 is every 2000 tournaments There's a tournament roughly every day, for, I think, 7 regions. 2000/7≈300. So 0.05% implies that for, say, EU, every 300 tournaments this happens, which roughly once every 10 months, which is incorrect. The answer is either 1/1.6 billion or /1/100 quadrillion
@@HypaOT modern tournaments rarely have point systems that encourage ties, as reiss explains. however, this probably does happen daily among players scoring really low points. the issue is, nobody cares about lower brackets in those tournaments, so it goes unnoticed.
But what when "time alive" is the same? It could be possible if the players are in the same match and die from an explosion or because of falldamage(when they fall on even ground at the same time from the same layer) and a better question is what placement they gonna get when they die the exact same time?
@@HypaOT but If you Play two Games for examples there are 200 possible average Placements and that you geht one of them ist 100% and that the other one gets the Same ist 1 in 200 so when Theres 3 Games IT Just Doubles the possibilities of an average placemnt you can have and With 4 Games again so IT is 1 in 800 then
@@vinggee9423 keep in mind your 200 possible placements are not equally likely. the only way you get 200 as your sum (or 100 as your average) is getting 100 twice, while getting a sum of 100 can happen in 99 different ways. so, this is wrong.
Some players now actually compete to pay of debts and mortgages for house and bills but like imagine back then losing your house because of a coin flip smh
4:28 I ran a simulation, the estimated probability that two different people both pick a random number between 1 and 100 four different times each, and the averages of both people's numbers are the same, is approximately 0.4879%, or about 1 in 205.
That's very wrong. The maths says it's 1/100,000,000. Even if the maths is wrong, this would mean this happens every 205 tournaments which is just untrue
@@HypaOT no, you don't understand probability, nor the question. What was calculated was the chance that 2 players had the same average placements across 4 games given they placed randomly (which due to the similar skill level, it would be more likely for the same average, but this is truly impossible to calculate as skill level isn't really quantifiable). This only shows that once in every 205 times you compare 2 random placement averages across 4 games, the averages would be the same. Of course, in actual tournaments, this is only for the step calculating placement probabilities. The probability that they all had the same stats in the other categories is what made a coin flip very improbable. However, the probability for this happening in a real tournament isn't near 1/100,000,000. If the tournament was done with different players with the same format, this wouldn't be as unlikely to repeat itself as you would expect. As the total points and victory royales between the players would almost certainly be repeated (with a large amount of players scoring 1 point and getting no victory royales), the probability relies on the total number of eliminations and average placements. With the players being very similar skill level, I would estimate the probability that a coin flip would be needed to decide which team would move on would greater than one in a thousand. Still very improbable to happen in a big tournament but not as improbable as it would be on a glance.
@@radicalaim would be fair to nromally distribute the numbers ngl since they both aren't the best but also not the worst players so a RNG would not be the best way to calculate this
@@idontmine7215 and in addition, they didn't place in the top 10 either because they didn't get any victory points, but it is still a similar odds of them getting the same random number (0.504%). But even using random numbers, it still shows that it isn't that improbable for this to happen in a tournament.
@@radicalaim I think you can use a combinmatrics approach for this, since you're getting all the possible ways for a sum to be 4-400 and still be the same? Which then you want to square the probability since it's both people getting that number
![จังหวะนี้ - เม้ก อภิสิทธิ์ [ Official MV ] จอนนี่มิวสิค](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/4gQRZCkRyiU/mqdefault.jpg)
"Man, I can't believe I tied with someone, I hope I win the money!"
Some random ass coin flip:
Hahahah
Top 400
Fortnite is so real for sticking to its roots and keeping the competition as Mickey Mouse as possible to this day 🙏
i’ve never heard anyone but my dad say mickey mouse
your comment gets the stamp of approval
the chances are 0.001421% that two players randomly selected from the 100 players will have the same average placement over four games.
how? Jw
What is the odds of that?
Like 1 out of ___
@@IbraAli-_- about 1 in 70373
bro is smarter then us all
Coin flip for that is crazy 💀
lmfao bro didnt watch the vid
Net watch the vid first
always the damn skull emoji bro these kids so ignorant
I know always the skull like the fuck
@@MAXSUIIRL womp womp
Reisshub is the only youtuber who can make statistics and boring competitive stuff actually engaging to watch
Imagine the coin landed on the edge so they tied for that too
Happened once in a soccer match
7:41 What a coincidence that Colton quit at the same time it became popular to call Fortnite “cringe.” Colton totally didn’t hop on a bandwagon at all
To me, it seems like people were calling Fortnite cringe because they quit, rather than quitting because it was "cringe". There was a time when a lot of players were falling out of love of the game until Zero Build came in because of how high the skill floor was getting.
What a W format
Have you even watch the VID?
@@MAXSUIIRLhe’s joking 🙃
Oh my fault
The odds of getting the same average placement in 4 games is 1/396, or about 0.25%, which is low but isn't too low.
The reason it isn't 1/100^4 is because 1/100^4 expresses the chances of guessing the exact same number in the same order. Such as: 1 - 44, 2 - 13, 3 - 95, 4 - 60 (this isn't even possible in Fortnite since 2 different people can't get the same placement in a set lobby).
Whereas in this scenario where average of the 4 numbers has to be the same, it can be a variety of combinations.
For example:
Player 1: 51st, 51st, 50th, 50th
Player 2: 1st, 1st, 100th, 100th
Both these players have the same average placement of 50.5 since the sum of all their placements add up to 202.
Therefore, for 2 players to have the same average placement throughout 4 games, they need to have the same sum of placements.
Since the lowest possible placement is 1st, lowest sum can be 4 and the highest can be 400 (100*4).
This means that the sum of placements of a player can range from 4-400, which gives the probability of 1/396 them having the same average placements.
if you roll two 1-6 dice, do you have the same probability of getting a 2 as a 6? The answer is no.
While there are 396 possibilities of combined placements, that does not mean each placement has an equal chance and therefore makes the math to calculate the probability more complex.
Random numbers also aren't realistic, as two players tied at a certain spot would be similar in skill level and would make their average placements much more likely to match.
@radicalaim I agree with the last part of your response that random numbers differ from actual placement of people in a game. However, I provided solution to that as that was the mathematical problem presented in the video.
If you roll two 1-6 dice, the probability of getting each number will be 1/6, therefore, the odds of getting a 2 = odds of getting a 6.
While it's true that not all distinct 396 sums are equally likely to come out, as values like 4 (1*4) and 400 (100*4) only have 1/100^4 chances of resulting from random generation. Whereas an average of 50 would be much higher since there are various combinations with the average of 50.
However, the last paragraph was about calculating the chances of getting a specific average. The problem is to find out what are the chances that any given average (thus also sum) might occur twice. Therefore, it should be independent of the individual probabilities of getting each average.
@@eo-fikretalp1221 you're wrong. Just apply the probability to what you're trying to work out and you'll see that. You're implying that this would happen every 400ish tournaments, which is completely wrong. The answer is 1/200^4=/1/1.6 billion
@HypaOT read my original answer you will see why that isn't correct
@radicalaim I see your other comment that you ran a simulation, and got 1/205. While I'm confident in my answer I would still want to see how you found that value as that is also reasonable compared to other comments and you seem to actually understand the question.
1 penny calculated 1.5 million dollars?! That's insane
Using a coin flip to determine the winner of a competitive sport is a HUGE L!!! It doesn’t get any worse than this. Have a shootout type end game set up in case this happens. Let the teams duel it out in game. A FRIGGIN COIN FLIP ARE YOU SERIOUS EPIC???
It is always a good day when this legend uploads🎉
To calculate the chances of a tie in percentages you'd just have to divide 100% with 100 four times so 100/(100^4)=0,000001 which is one in 100 million which is completely absurd. The number would be even more absurd if you would factor in the other tiebreakers.
You're not looking for 2 players with the same exact history, you're looking for 2 players with the same average. There are 400 choices, so at most there's a 1 in 400 chance of having a tie.
@@ancellery6430yeah that's my bad lol.
Another video!! I love you’re videos❤
Of course this man releases this just as I’m about to sleep, guess I have to watch it.
W upload 🎉
reiss i love the video man keep it up
You cant get better edited than this. Also, a coin flip is life changing
God how much I love your videos
Me too
great vid keep up the work
First gang
you didnt watch it
You didnt watch it lmfao
Yoooooo reisshub uploaded yay!!!
Yesss
This is crazy 😂❤️
I feel like people forget that there’s still a lot left to cover from early Fortnite tournaments. I feel like winter, secret, and summer skirmishes are much more forgotten than fall skirmish.
Yippee another reisshub vid
You know this is the main timeline if something that unlikely happened
Bro I love your content so much and I am not saying this for clout keep it my guy
I always smile when I see that ricehub posts
Best fn youtuber
Hi nice vid
First and W
Since there are 400 choices (100 placement choices * 4 games), the maximum bound for the odds of both players having the same average placement is 1 in 400. However, it is far more likely to get an average placement towards the center, since there are more sums which add up to central numbers. For example, there is only 1 way to get an average placement of 1, but a ton of ways to get an average placement of 50 (23,48,82,47 for example). This means the distribution of average placement is not random, but instead it will follow a normal distribution. This significantly increases the chances of placements being the same. I wrote a script that runs the simulation 10 millions times and got a probability of 1 in 208.
only correct answer in this comment section lmao
Can you do an updated version of the perfect fortnite lootpool video.
Reisshub a w fr
Good video
I remember a DH Finals where Verox and znappy tied on everything
If you see this I love all your videos and your my favourite Fortnite TH-camr
Fortnite is so high skilled
Btw the chance that 2 players have the same average placement isn't as low as you think if they are of similar skill level
500 views in less than 5 minutes, don't listen to people saying you fell off you are doing great!
Pretty cool info
I know bravo
Probably best way to get an approximation on likelihood of same avg. placement is: consider these players will place an avg. of at most 50. Then at 4 games multiply that by 4 and you get something like "likelihood of 2 numbers picked between 1 and 200 being the same which is 1/200 or 0.5%". Obviously, this is not mathematically correct, just a good way to gauge. Realistically, the probability is higher, since players are likely to have avg. placement between 20 and 50 and that "the number picked between 1 and 200 must be always even" so it's more close to 2%.
highest rank in battle royale decided who moves on is crazy 💀
nice vid
Great video reiss
Kreo is ol hight. Bugha with the HP advantage. It might be the shockwave play. Bugha smiling. Bugha shockwaving up. Bugha won the Worldcup.
Sometimes its elims before wins with tefus world cup qualifyer
I was hoping you’ll mention Kami And Setty dreamhack tiebreaker
Flipping a coin to see who wins a tournament is keeping you big as hell
W
Hi
This guy took me from bronze to diamond. Go reisshub!!!
4:29 i think it’s 1/1M
knowing my "luck" I'd be the guy who would tie on
1. Total Vic Roys
2. Eliminations
3. Avg Placements
4. Total Seconds Alive...
First😮
5 million views in 43 milliseconds????? Reisshub popping off fr
3:17 1 day after 4/20 is crazy
Imagine losing a tournament to a coinflip, they should just do a 1v1 instead
-"So team what should we do if theres a tiebreaker in points?"
"By a coin flip?"
"Take my job-
w upload
Did you watch it
Does anybody remember the experimental boxfight tournament? What if they brought that back for tie breakers and did a pg a zw or a bxf
Imagine the deciding factor between you and $1.5 milli in your bank account is just a random gamble on heads or tails 😭
In the Lachlan pickaxe cup I tied 500th place with another team, top 500 is what you needed to win. They won the skin.
Mmm mmm.
@@MAXSUIIRL mmmm mmmm
womp womp
can you make a short on fazing into someones box every time - edit the cone to one tile and crouch walk into the corner of the cone while spraying the floor below you and you will get in every time - asking for the 16th time
First To see how smart reiss is
4:17 bro couldn’t do the math himself 😭
IM pretty early
I thought this was about Copenhagen LAN lmfaoo
Here before 2minutes
I can't be the only one that thought this was the mero, cooper coin flip😭
I thought this was another Cooper Mero video
i thought this video would be about the coin mero flipped that made him duo with cooper and win globals based on the title
Here in 30 minutes
Intersting fact they actually used to have coin flips in the game for a long time even in online tournaments where they basically just gave you a random number between 0 and 7 and the higher the better. At some point they even had coin flips and time alive at the same time but i think they removed coin flips so higher points still work
No idea how I missed the coin flip back than and only now I found out, but that's crazy...
0.05% chance of having same placement happening
Hope this helps 😀
i believe its alot more rare than this as they are both independent of eachother
0.05 is every 2000 tournaments
There's a tournament roughly every day, for, I think, 7 regions. 2000/7≈300. So 0.05% implies that for, say, EU, every 300 tournaments this happens, which roughly once every 10 months, which is incorrect. The answer is either 1/1.6 billion or /1/100 quadrillion
@@HypaOT modern tournaments rarely have point systems that encourage ties, as reiss explains.
however, this probably does happen daily among players scoring really low points. the issue is, nobody cares about lower brackets in those tournaments, so it goes unnoticed.
Who else thought this was about the metro and cooper duping coin flip?
But what when "time alive" is the same? It could be possible if the players are in the same match and die from an explosion or because of falldamage(when they fall on even ground at the same time from the same layer) and a better question is what placement they gonna get when they die the exact same time?
as stated in the video, their BR rank
@@Paec no this is for fncs series points
COINFLIP Who wins xxx $! Better Title
A 1v1 would have been more fun to watch
How do u get the replay mode footage
Mero x Cooper was also a coin flip 🐐
same avg placement in 4 rounds is 1/800 but onnly in theorie because nobody is gonna get an average placement off 100 etc
It's either 1/200^4=1/1.6 billion or 1/100 quadrillion btw
@@HypaOT but If you Play two Games for examples there are 200 possible average Placements and that you geht one of them ist 100% and that the other one gets the Same ist 1 in 200 so when Theres 3 Games IT Just Doubles the possibilities of an average placemnt you can have and With 4 Games again so IT is 1 in 800 then
@@vinggee9423 keep in mind your 200 possible placements are not equally likely. the only way you get 200 as your sum (or 100 as your average) is getting 100 twice, while getting a sum of 100 can happen in 99 different ways. so, this is wrong.
Imagine that the coin fell on its middle
crazy early
Biggest takeaway:
LAN event
Teams couldnt dominate like normal
🤔🤔🤔
The coin then lands vertically 💀
Some players now actually compete to pay of debts and mortgages for house and bills but like imagine back then losing your house because of a coin flip smh
first
No me
kreo still mad at courage
4:28 I ran a simulation, the estimated probability that two different people both pick a random number between 1 and 100 four different times each, and the averages of both people's numbers are the same, is approximately 0.4879%, or about 1 in 205.
That's very wrong. The maths says it's 1/100,000,000. Even if the maths is wrong, this would mean this happens every 205 tournaments which is just untrue
@@HypaOT no, you don't understand probability, nor the question. What was calculated was the chance that 2 players had the same average placements across 4 games given they placed randomly (which due to the similar skill level, it would be more likely for the same average, but this is truly impossible to calculate as skill level isn't really quantifiable).
This only shows that once in every 205 times you compare 2 random placement averages across 4 games, the averages would be the same. Of course, in actual tournaments, this is only for the step calculating placement probabilities. The probability that they all had the same stats in the other categories is what made a coin flip very improbable.
However, the probability for this happening in a real tournament isn't near 1/100,000,000. If the tournament was done with different players with the same format, this wouldn't be as unlikely to repeat itself as you would expect. As the total points and victory royales between the players would almost certainly be repeated (with a large amount of players scoring 1 point and getting no victory royales), the probability relies on the total number of eliminations and average placements. With the players being very similar skill level, I would estimate the probability that a coin flip would be needed to decide which team would move on would greater than one in a thousand. Still very improbable to happen in a big tournament but not as improbable as it would be on a glance.
@@radicalaim would be fair to nromally distribute the numbers ngl since they both aren't the best but also not the worst players so a RNG would not be the best way to calculate this
@@idontmine7215 and in addition, they didn't place in the top 10 either because they didn't get any victory points, but it is still a similar odds of them getting the same random number (0.504%).
But even using random numbers, it still shows that it isn't that improbable for this to happen in a tournament.
@@radicalaim I think you can use a combinmatrics approach for this, since you're getting all the possible ways for a sum to be 4-400 and still be the same? Which then you want to square the probability since it's both people getting that number
People be sayin great vid after its been out only for 1 minute and the video is 8😂
Best vid
What if they tied on rank as well
?
I would take the chances
Here after the video's name changed
👇
The chances to get 2 people to pick the same average placement is 0.00000625%
can you show how you got this?
yooo
How can a coin do that
the chance of the placement i exactly 1 in one million
should have done a 2v2 or something
courage was commentating and probably eat the points for 11th place and higher