When to Sell a Stock Exactly for the Buy and Hold Investor - Warren Buffett Style of Investing
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ส.ค. 2024
- When to Buy a Stock Video: • When Do I Buy a Stock ...
Warren Buffett has said many times that the ideal time to hold an investment is forever, ideally, this investment will grow our money for as long as we own it. So, the question is - when is the right time to sell a stock? In this video, we look at a system for ignoring the noise of a stock and identifying the best time to sell a stock. Knowing when to sell a stock is one of the best tools we can have, especially if that process improves our entire investment strategy.
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What do you think of the process I use for identifying when to sell a stock? If you’re curious, I also published a video on when to Buy a Stock: th-cam.com/video/6Lu71eyaLoo/w-d-xo.html
Could you possibly upload this table ?
I think you have e very reasonable approach to managing positions in a portfolio.
I can get carried away with noise at times. I hope to adopt your way of looking at it.
Thanks for the great videos :)
Question. Would you say that it is a good idea to buy some more shares when it drops and Continue holding onto them as they go up with the other shares you had already had in place? For example; I buy a share at $8 and it goes up $10 then it drops to $6, then should I buy some more at $6 and then hold onto all those shares and wait for it to go up because I'll then have more shares and on top of that more gain from the $6 shares and the $8 shares because it went up $15. Or should I sell some when it goes up to $15 because it drop is coming and then it drops to $10 the next day, then should I reinvest in it and buy as it goes lower and lower, so I gain more as it goes up..? I'm curious because I'm very new to all this.
Robert Lubin I think what you need to invest in is a crystal ball. It could make you a fortune in the long run, unless of course, the price of crystal balls plummets and you decide to sell it! 🤔
I think it makes a lot of sense, and thanks for the video! Do you make a video where you explain the nitty gritty of how to actually build that spreadsheet? That is right up my alley, using math to dictate financial decisions. I don't know the formulas or where to find the numbers you are plugging in.
If this video were a stock, I would buy it! This is highly undervalued content!
I really don't know why you haven't got a bigger following, nobody is bringing this much value to the investing community. Thanks again for another great video.
The next few years for Microsoft excite me. Fundamentals are looking strong and the next generation Xbox is soon to be released. When the Xbox One came out in 2013, there wasn't anywhere near the amount of TH-cam Creators to help push the product to success. So it will be interesting to see how all of this unfolds :)
Thanks again!
Kyron Caunt Me too! Jimmy has the best channel on investing I’ve come across. However I think it’s a matter of time. How many hugely successful people have toiled away in obscurity for a long time, “suddenly” to hit the big time. It happens a lot. Anyway kudos to Jimmy, he’s got something special and I believe it’s just a matter of time before it takes off.
Because he doesn't advertise his channels or turn his channel into a tesla channel.
He should patent it. I think it's a very good trademark.
r Negoro Financial Education is so overrated, he gets paid regardless of how value or even correct the information is😂😂
I think the world of you, Jimmy. You're such a good guy, a humble guy. You don't behave cocky and talk badly about others. I love your teaching style. I learn tons from you in a way I can understand and apply. I hope you are enjoying life and have many people in your life who love you and whom you love. The best to you, my friend! :)
I think this is one of your better videos, teaching the mindset of selling an investment and knowing what information to take in and which to ignore is priceless for new investors, keep up the good work 👍
Hi Jimmy. I love your videos because of their high educational quality in an easy to understand language. You are the best I've seen on TH-cam.
This is by far the highest quality investing channel on TH-cam. I'm recommending it to all my friends. We are all learning invaluable things from you and I cannot believe it is all for free. Keep up the good work Jimmy, from a fan in Spain!
I started watching your channel today, and I am addicted to it. Just don't understand how your channel has only 38.4K subscribers! Your explanations are very straightforward with no BS at all! You are way better than most of the value investing channels on youtube. Well done!
I appreciate that 😊 I'm glad you found us. Let me know if you have any questions, I'm always looking for good video ideas 👍
Again wanted to Thank you for being Brilliant. Have invested $200 in classes and reading material and they could not explain even 20% of what you do on your channel. You are the best. Keep up the good work.
can you do a video where you go through what web sites you use to find the information to analyze each of your stocks?
That's a good idea
Good suggestion sir ...
@@LearntoInvest hey jimmy, we're still waiting for the video where you share with us the websites you use for your stock analysis :)
@@mysticado lmao plz make a vid Jimmy
@@LearntoInvest link it pls!
The only investing channel you need to follow!
😁 Thanks!!!
This is your best video so far. Love it. Can you make a part 2 that shows an example of a company with earnings that have turned lower? Would you sell after a bad quarter or a full yr of lower earnings? At what point do you actually hit the sell button after holding for years? Thanks Jimmy.
Use trailing stop losses
@@jenniferwise8515 I would like that, but problem is that there can be fake outs - they move the price to hit your stop, then bounce when you are out and now you have to buy higher if you wantto be in position
Jimmy - Your best video yet. The table showing earnings and margins was excellent and very clearly showed why MSFT was still a hold even though the share price chart was showing a 20% decline. You mentioned the word emotion and that is a killer in stock investing. I hope your friend has appreciated your great advice when buying MSFT at $51 when today's price is $136, you're a stock picking genius.
I agree with the concept, but what do you think about profit taking at higher points? Just to secure profits and possibly investing it more down the line,?
The decision making framework discussed here is pure gold. Not looking at stock price (outcome) but looking at decisions that made you buy the stock and reconsidering for any changes. Such rational thinking applies greatly to not just investing but to anything. You are amazing Jimmy.
I have seen a lot of videos about the stock market and explaining when to sell a stock, however, most of them were just mumbo jumbo. This one made complete sense. This perspective was mind-blowing and....you're 100% correct! The idea of organizing the amounts per quarter is just brilliant!
Thank YOU! Now, let's get rich! :)
I think one of the overlooked things to consider about selling a stock is taxes. That is a cost you incur only when you sell, not when you hold, and it can have BIG compounding impacts over time!
Not with a Roth IRA!
@@votivespark that's right! :)
Kevin Conway, but if the stock falls, there would be the same compounding effect against you.
Super great video Jimmy. Couple of months ago, I had zero knowledge about stocks and didnt own any. I wanted to do research of my own before jumping in. Your videos are one of my go-to places to understand and refresh my investment thinking & strategies. Please keep up the good work.
While watching this video at 3:04 today (June 30, 2020), I checked MSFT stock price and it is 198.44 USD. Thanks a lot for your valuable videos.
This dude deserves wayyyy more subscribers
I feel the basis here is FOMO. That is; we're holding on to a stock because we think it'll grow even more! In the spirit of Graham's notion of selling "overpriced" stocks, wouldn't it be a good idea to sell any stocks that have risen in price to a profitable level and then reinvest in others?
Would love your input on this. Thank you Jimmy!
It's a logical thought, and I think many times it could make sense to sell overpriced stocks. Here is my hesitation though; once we sell, we will likely pay taxes, so why invite the tax man to the party if we don't have to. And second, do we have a better investment to go into. I fear that many times we sell when a stock looks overpriced and then we just hold that cash, and cash is likely a bad investment.
So if we don't mind the taxes, or perhaps it's a tax advantaged account, and we have a "better" investment to get into, then yes selling could make a lot of sense.
@@LearntoInvest Thanks a lot for the helpful reply! Appreciated.
Trying to learn the stock market. This example was good. I have to learn more of the terminology but for the most part it was easy to understand and made sense. Remembering why you got the stock is a solid way to keep from reacting to crazy stock changes
out of curiosity, what terminology did I use that you would like to know better? If you feel this way, I'm sure others do as well. Thanks for the feedback, I really appreciate it 😃
Simple and straightforward. I would add another set of lines for the cash flow analysis. Thank you for the video.
I am glad to find out this channel now in my 22 years old. My only concern is where to find analyst projections as different source gives different projections and some are not trustworthy.
Love the content! A question: How do you get to the revenue and margin predictions? You said by analysts, can you do a (short) video where you show us how you made/found the predictions?
problem is to find good analysts
I agree with you. You only sell when your investment thesis changes. For me that is dividends. As long as they keep paying and growing their dividend, we are good. If they cut it of stop playing they are out and will be replaced.
I agree with ya. But not always sell just if they stop raising the div and just keep it flat, if it’s still good then that’s ok with me. A cut is bad and a def sign to maybe cut and run but if you like company they can bounce back if want to wait it out but that makes it a possible sell for sure.
hello jimmy and thanks a lot for share your knowledge with us.
I agree with every word you say and I want to tell you that I'm the kind of investor who ignores all the noise outside, but i have to be honest.
Exactly a year ago that Facebook reported the report that started the stock price crash, I started buying shares, and I just kept buying whenever I could.
I have a nice profit now and I am the kind of trader who looks at the long term, but from some reason i am afraid.
I'm glad to hear your opinion
thanks in advance
Great video. I've seen lot of videos that explain when to buy but few on when to sell.
Thanks for sharing the details to this. I have been bad at selling after making my 100% or more gains as the price continues to go higher.
I'm glad you liked it 😃 Thanks for all the support!!!!!
I learned a lot and enjoyed watching the videos. Thank you for your continuous effort to share more insights on shares, intrinsic value, etc.
Very insightful and necessary with all the volatility lately thanks!
Love how well you explain everything
Thanks 🙂
Solid video, Jimmy. Love the sound advice you give and the fact you don't give in to all the noise. As the wise John C Bogle once said, "The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing." Your philosophy would make him proud (I think).
Exactly what I need. Best stock investment channel so far.
Excellent explanation, Jimmy! Decision to sell is much harder than to buy. As always, thx for the great video. Love your channel 👍
I normally ask myself “ after reviewing the stock, do I want to buy it if I haven’t owned it yet?”. If the answer is No, then it’s time to consider to sell it.
Your channel is pretty much the only one I watch to learn analysis now..
Can't do justice with a single like button honestly ! Love your content, great insight and beginner tips for people getting their feet wet in the investing world. Great job, Jimmy !
Jimmy, keep up the great work. I stumbled upon your channel a week ago and haven't stopped watching. I'm interested in investing and I'm learning so much from your videos. You're great at explaining these concepts. It's invaluable information. You've got a new subscriber! Keep it up!
Hi Jimmy. This is a great way to look at established companies that have sufficient history to build a solid trend.
I am wondering if there is a methodology that would be useful for more "recent" companies - perhaps we would analyze the market segment and the number of players in it ..?
What do you think is a good approach to these investments?
Thanks
Great video. Honestly the more I learn the more I find out that I should probably be an index investor and maybe buy 2 or 3 companies I would like to track instead of 20+ stocks
yea, looks like this. just one problem is that index also has various crap.
Amazing information. A good check to see where our value investing is at. Don’t buy the price buy the company and it’s potential.
Thank you for the video! Please do a video about investing in individual corporate bonds and how to find ones that are at a discount from par value.
Jimmy, you are the greatest stock market teacher on TH-cam! I am addicted to your videos. I am really amaised how you could explain so clearly in a short video.
Thanks for all your knowledge. Your video are incredible. Keep it up!!!!
Where do you get analyst expectations from?
Great video! Very helpful for a newer investor like me
Your videos provide great great value. Thanks. I totally agree with this approach. The market will agree with the Fundamentals in the long run.....
isn't it a good idea to add fair value? I mean if the stock is super overvalued (even though the spreadsheet looks good) might be a time to sell?
Its a great video, thanks. How would you know when to sell a stock if you feel it is over valued?
Jimmy, this is GREAT information. A visual indicator like this helps us understand the direction of the investment. And you're correct, there's a lot of noise going on right now.
I liked your video. Momentum sometimes puts price out whack. I also look at RSI and higher highs and higher lows.
Could you do a video giving an analysis on some of the popular IPOs that have been out a few months now i.e. Pinterest, Zoom, Beyond Meat, Levi’s etc And do a similar type of set up where we look at the long-term hold potential as the earnings for these companies come out in the next weeks? 🤔
Excellent video! Love your teaching!
Great Video like always, Thanks a lot for sharing all your experience with us. Would be great to see more videos about experiences you had with individual stocks (good and bad) and all your decision-making process and feelings along the way. Either way, you are doing an amazing job teaching how to invest and your channel is great!
Good video especially for someone brand new to investing(me lol). Youve just got yourself a new sub👍
Thanks Jimmy! What if the stock price go higher than his intrínsec value? It is not time to sell?
Your videos are awesome! Thank you very much
I’m glad you like them, let me know if you have any investing questions that could make a good video 👍😀
Hey Jimmy, I was wondering where is it that one can find the future revenue, cash flow estimates and the projected net income margins. Great video, very informative 👍
Really appreciate your videos! You actually teach some useful skills and concepts rather than putting out click bait videos like other investing channels. Keep up the good work!!!
great job taking the time to explain this. I have been thinking for a long time that google is a great business to invest. since this the value of a share was about $600 Canadian. I am gonna buy in 2020 and hold retirement or so.
I like this way of thinking. one addition thought maybe is if the price of the stock become crazy high. lets say 2 or 3x my high estimate. it would make sense to sell, and maybe buy it again low if it still make sense.
Assumption is that the price of the stock represents its fundamentals.
Thank-you for another informative video. The concept of examining key statistics vertically (by year) and horizontally (by quarter) was extremely helpful by providing a way of making patterns tangible, especially in relation to the investment thesis for a particular company.
Speaking of thesis, I hope you can provide examples of corporate actions that may or may not break thesis. For example, Abbvie's planned acquisition of Allergan. I've heard several analysts say that the acquisition is accretive to earnings. What do we look for to verify such claims? And, how would it differ from non-accretive acquisitions?
Very great work I would also add a earning/debt ratio
Great video! I agree with you. However, I also look at how aggressive the market's assumptions are. Particularly if past growth rates are extrapolated without good reason and if valuation ratios are high compared to the company's history or peers.
Watching this in 2021.... amazing...
I would accumulate shares based on my conviction in the earning, and margins.. great video!!!
Thank you for this video. It helped me to consider new perspectives before making a buying/selling decisions.
Really like your model and calculations
Only other time to sell is if PE ratio becomes so high the growth of the company can't possibly justify it. This happened with several tech stocks in the 2000 bubble.
I enjoyed this video, concepts put across so even a beginner like myself understood quite easily. But I would also like to see a comparison between the revenue and the expenses for each quarter or year. Because there are times when the revenue increases but the expenses exceed the growth of the revenue, thus nullifying the increased earnings.
Thanks Jimmy! Love your video and teaching, especially Valuation Series.
Thank you for such an insightful video, Jimmy! I appreciate your thorough approach.
I am curious how often do you update your expectations/predictions? Is the timeframe always 5 years in the future?
And how long after observing a quarterly decline in revenue would you decide to sell the stock assuming, like in this video, that that is deciding factor?
Hi,
1. When something change to the worst.
2. When we have a better opportunity elsewhere.
What about when it gets too expensive? I usually see this third one.
Another brilliant video! Many thanks Jimmy. I learn a heck of a lot from them.
Solid content once again Jimmy!
Hi, really nice Video for getting some structure in your way of thinking, especially for beginner investors (like me).
I have a short Question if you look at the Income from US-GAAP or Non-GAAP. For Microsoft it doesn't make a too strong difference, but for Paypal (PYPL) for example the difference is significant. They differ for >5 % for Non-GAAP to US-GAAP.
Hi Jimmy, thank you very much for sharing this, super interesting! I have a question for you: do you every update the revenue projections as the time is passing? I'm assuming the analysts are updating their estimates every now and then. Do you account for this in your spreadsheet, and hence you adjust your expectations? Thanks!
I love your channel. Thank you for sharing knowledge.
You are one savvy investor. I love your channel! Can you recommend a website or a book so that one day I can see investing the way you see it?
Great video!!!. On another video you could do. Most of the stocks I bought during the last 2 months have been dividends etf. At this point I want individual tech stocks but at this point they are all so high. I feel stuck.
As usual, another informative video put together well. Thanks, Jimmy!
Hi jimmy can you make a video to show us how you get those historical data? I tried but didnt succeed
Thanks for the content. My position in GE is at a cost basis of 8.90. I’m up 27% after Thursday’s close at 11.29 / share. I’m tempted to sell and lock in some profits but I also think holding another 2ish years could see the share price in the mid-teens. I’d appreciate your thoughts!
Just like margin of safety in buying, is there also a point where you have to sell.
Would you please do a video explaining how and when mutual funds sell-off to lock in returns.....the effect on stock price.....and of course fund holders end up holding the bag to pay taxes
Man! another great strategy to analyze value! amazing!
Solid Info! Your method can be made into a google sheets extensions to automate all this work which is awesome.
Thanks for the wisdom! Greetings from Portugal :)
Good video subject. You did a brilliant job. Can you point me in the right direction as to where I can download/establish a spreadsheet (s) like the one use in your video (s)? I'm a recent subscriber to your TH-cam channel, so I glad I found your channel.
Really informative videos. I have a question though.
Could you explain how you got future revenue projections and margin figure of 26% for future years say till 2020-2021 in 2016 ?
So if I want to make such projections and if I go to some wrong projection source in that case my whole basis of holding might turn out to be wrong. So how do determine the future projections in authentic manner ?
Thank you Jimmy! Very well done!
Jimmy - fantastic template, I have replicated for our investments in INTC. I am wondering though where did you get the Margin value from on the extreme right side? I am just assuming this is an average of the previous few years net income/revenue?
Thats what I am taking it at least.
Wish I could "thumbs this up" twice. I'm a little late to the party, but given how this advice is intended to be timeless, I do have a question. Why wouldn't you run your DCF analysis (or whatever analysis you did to value the stock) on a regular basis (quarterly or annually) and/or set an alert if the stock goes way above this value, considering it time to think about selling then? Is it to avoid churn and hence larger tax bills (assuming it's a taxable account)? I seem to be missing something in the buy and hold overall strategy.
Great video! Makes sense. Thank you 👍
Could you do a video on how/where to do financial research on companies? Mining the data is takes longer than I expect every time.
Thats just a perfect explanation, thanks again!
Hello thanks for the great video. Is there a spreadsheet link for this as well
Great video, Jimmy!
Yes, I agree.