When Do I Buy a Stock Exactly - the Way Warren Buffet Knows When to Buy a Stock
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 เม.ย. 2019
- In this video we are going to look at when to buy a stock. The goal of the video is to present a reliable strategy for identifying when to buy a stock exactly. We walk through 3 examples based on previous videos I’ve done before and when would have been the best time to buy it.
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I also published a video on when to Sell a Stock if you're Interested: th-cam.com/video/HmK6HnYfiK4/w-d-xo.html
Learn to Invest
I am new to the market and to channel
Thank you for your info
Please create a video talk about Nokia and Erickson
Grate video about moment to buy, grate video about sell, but you didn't mention when to sell in terms of valuation + marging model, you just show how to filter a noise. So if you buy (entry price), then after some time fair value became far away from real (stock is megaovervaluated), so doesn't it mean that its time to sell? Could you clarify this point for newbie? Thank you
Nobody can become financially successful over night. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals.
I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value.
@@mariahhayes5089 Oh that sounds good but how do i reach out to PRISCILLA DIANE AIVAZIAN ?
@@mariahhayes5089 OKay i just found her website very impressive and dropped a message for her.,. i hope she reply's me.
from all the investing ppl i watch, this guy has the best approach when it comes to investing
I really appreciate the kind words!!! 😁
this guy being the Warren Buffet guy?
jk, I´m going to start watching the video haha
Ditto
I was like daaaaamn, too much effort to calculate that for 30+ companies and keep it up to date all the time. BUUUUT what a reasonable and incredibly smart approach! I can see it bringing profits in.
agree... he knows what he's talking about while many others just speculate
"I'm a big fan of JP Morgan, at the right price"
By far, one of the most underrated channels out there.
Hey Jimmy,
These videos are a gold mine for people interested in investing the right way.
I urge you to produce more of this type of content.
Subscribed, obviously.
Keep up the amazing work, and thank you.
I just found your channel, and boy am i glad i did. You explain things so good and clear. I'm from Europe but if i want to know analysis about American companies, this is the place to be. Keep up the good work!
I have spent a few hours pausing your vids, taking notes, and rewinding. I am new to investing but your channel gives people an edge if they care to put in the work. Keep it coming Jimmy. ("Hi, I'm Jimmy") I have heard countless times in my research LOL.
Bro, this guy is probably the best analyst I've seen on TH-cam wtf lol. What a legend.
Your videos are becoming my favorite for learning how to invest, Jimmy. I would be interested to see how the 3 different approaches come out for the same company and hearing your thoughts on why they might be different or why one might be better than the other. Thanks!
I cannot believe how valuable your videos are. You deserve millions s of subscribers. Great job!
Extraordinary good video! The biggest obstacle to most investors is when to buy and when to sell and you covered this exquisitely.
Now a couple of things to consider. When you buy at a fair price and safety margin your cost basis varies with time. The more dividends you get, the lower the cost and more. So before you sell, absolutely see if the quantitative reason you bought is still true but also account for the reduced cost basis due to dividends or pay outs.
As a more simple person, my fair value comes from the 200 day moving average and the P/E compared to the sector. Using Bollinger Bands indicator also helps on the momentum and volume. We use the buy and hold strategy. For continous growth, If it stops growing, the price will decline. For dividend growth, if the dividends is cut, sell.
Grate video! Not holding back any information. Way more people should be watching this channel, so I will share with my friends!
I legit learn something from you every time I watch (or re-watch) your videos. Well done, my friend!
👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
Great review and great content. Keep it up and I'll keep watching!
Yes! Thank you so much for considering doing vidoes on Fair Value. I have been looking for good videos/literature on this topic, but I have not had good luck. Also, do you have any recommendations on easy books to understand for evaluating/setting fair values on stocks?
Really looking forward to the table, great work!
I always seem to miss. I hope to learn alot. Thanks for putting out the videos
Great video Jimmy! Very helpful to see your approach on when to enter a position
I really enjoy how you present any topic. As much objective as possible!
This video is incredible!!! Less than a month after your analysis Disney went down to 104.22. As of now, if someone invested in Disney on that day they would be up close 32%.....Absolutely incredible :o With Apple someone could be up over 44% .... Just wow, honestly :o
@Corey Lambrecht ...and now look at Disney!, :o
And look at Disney now! Trading at $109 in pre-market. Factor in inflation and that's a significant loss. Mind you, what do you say about a capitalist company that peddles communist ideology cos 'the kids like it'....?
A series on different valuation methods and how to calculate fair value would be very useful. Also, what are the criteria for selecting a particular method for a specific company? Currently, I rely primarily on price ratios (P/E, P/AFFO, P/FCF), but set the target values low to get some margin of safety. Gaining additional tools always helps.
When I create each video on different valuation technique, I'll be sure to stress where they are best applied. Thanks for the support!
@@LearntoInvest one of the problems with the PE ratio is that it doesn't take into account company debt. That's why I personally have higher confidence in the EV/EBIT ratio. It works the same way as PE, but a company with higher debt will also show up more expensive compared to if you only used the PE value.
Jimmy, I’ve learnt a lot from you. Thank you for taking the time to share.
Thank you for the best youtube investment channel in history!
A question, how did you use the forward P/E ratio to determine the fair value?
Hi Jimmy! Greetings from Brazil. Keep the good work.
You Americans are really fortunate that you have all the opportunities to directly invest in those high quality stocks of global companies. I try to follow some of your advice, however, it's not easy to implement those great concepts into emerging markets (greetings from Poland!). Keep up the good work, Jimmy!
Hello I also live in Poland, I never invested in Poland (Warsaw stock exchange) have you ever tried, is it trustworthy?
@@ismailgultekin9768 Hi, I think the Polish market might be tricky for foreigners as there are many info to be taken into account that are available only in Polish language. Some stocks are strongly correleted with polotics which isnt easy to follow. It is an emerging market so you get more volatility, price changes tend to be more rapid and sharp than in the US, I think. In general there are a couple of high quality stocks- see for instance KGHM, banks, gamedev and others. I got a very good returns last year but ot was mostly due to covid so we'll seehow it goes this year. Hope you enjoy Poland. Cheers!
Thank you for another great video Jimmy. I use a formula that first calculates the future price, then one for the fair value and then take off a margin of safety.
For margin of safety I'm using similar numbers as you do somewhere between 10-30 depending on how long the company exists and how stable they have been performing. Ok I'm off to looking at your DCF video :) Thanks again !
Excellents videos !!! They are between my favorites. It's a very good explanation!
Great video. I love your content so definitely keep it going. Question: what discount rate do you use for your DCF? Is it always WCC or do you use a rate that's based on what you hope to achieve?
Just stumbled across this and subscribed after one video. Really appreciate the no fluff explanation of valuation that other "experts" dance all around and hint at. Specifically, that there are multiple methods to approach valuation and Due Diligence - and margin of safety should be self determined based on risk tolerance. You make this all more simple than sitting in a business course or listening to a "guru".
Thanks for the kind words 😊
Thank you Jimmy!!
Perfect video also for whom are not 100% english fluent.
Thanks!! 😁
Awesome video sir! It answered so many questions I've been asking myself!
I'm so greatful channel like yours exist. Thanks for the massive value!
Hey Jimmy, Thanks for the easy to understand video.
Wow dude you are a great teacher.... thanks for the hard work mate
Oh thank you so much! This channel is literally gold.
No bs, just straight up facts and calculation, instant subscribe :)
I've been watching your videos and they are very helpful. I was wondering what sources you use to gather your data for your analysis and develop your spreadsheet?
I find myself at a crossroads, uncertain whether to liquidate my $150,000 stock portfolio. I'm seeking advice on the best strategy to capitalize on this current market.
Yes true, I have been in touch with a financial advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Nicole Desiree Simon and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her
Hi there Jimmy, I am just getting started at learning how to invest in the Stock Market for Long Term Value Investing. I am enjoying the learning process at this point, but there is the silly slow learning curve when you are trying to learn on your own. I am a subscriber to your channel and really like your videos and the time you take to break down the basics and give examples for the how and why's of it. Maybe you can help me understand when to use a diff method for valuing a company. I keep hearing that there are diff methods, but would like to understand, more specifically, in which situations to use a certain 'method' to help evaluate the company. i.e. regular stock vs financial stock vs healthcare etc. Thanks in advance and keep up the good work.
Jimmy! I love your videos! I really do! I watch every single video you upload because you give us some really valuable information! just one thing! it would be awesome if you could improve your sound quality! I know is not the most important thing, but I would personally appreciate it! Greetings and thank you for this great content!
Thank you Jimmy so much! I am a new investor and have been following all of your videos, you have taught me so much, your method of explanation is so right on target! Thank you again Jimmy, I will let all of my friends and family know about you also! Keep the videos coming!!
New to the market, How can the Market not reflect what is currently happening with unemployment, foreclosures, auto loans defaulting... ? I do not get it? Is it because the Fed is dumping trillions into an eventual abyss? Please help me understand!
Thank you everyone, be safe and protect you and your families.
Smart Jimmy, This last dip in the market has spooked people and they have sold out with ridiculous losses. Regardless of your level of confidence or how bad things look, don't sell at a loss. Wait a year or 3 and see how your company does. I'd almost advise someone to look at stocks as a 5 year CD. If you sell it and lose all the interest what is the point? Why invest if you can't afford to stay in medium term of 5 to 10 years.
If you are a long term investor does it really matter. They say most of the big spikes and dips come from just a handfull of days. Be very hard to wait on the side lines for potentially years if you are waiting for the "right time". I choose slight dips.
Yep - *_exactly_* right. I do the same - and trying to learn to do it better. I have a list - including existing stocks - of ones that are possible buys and possible sells. Sell the slight over-exuberance and buy the slight dip (Btw: the one I sold stays on the list if it's 'sound' - I might buy its next slight dip. Etc). It doesn't make me lots of capital growth. But I'd say that my new strategy is making me 1-2% more than my previous strategy (after costs, spread, tax etc). I just bought ASML at €820 in a dip off the trendline when it's been €930 fairly recently (of course, you had to do some proper research and be convinced it's market overreaction rather than fundamentals...)
Why did I just find out about this guy? I will be adding some of your valuation methods to my toolbox also! You're awesome and great at explaining! I think a 15-20% margin is more then enough safety cushion after calculations. And with that being said, I just bought a nice position in Intel stock @$59.33 with your valuation methods and feel confident about it and the safety margin! *opinion from a noob investor*
Thank you!
I'm so glad you recommend you channel
Wow Jimmy. Thank you so much for your channel. Learning a lot from you. Can't wait for the series. Still haven't jumped into the stock market because I'm still learning. Appreciate everything you do. Have a good day.
Thanks for the support and I'm glad you like the channel!!!! 😁
I think a key point in this video is when you mentioned the more stocks you research and provide fair value price entries the more chance you have to monitor and take advantage of opportunities. I’m creating a list right now of the dividend aristocrat companies and their intrinsic values and putting a tracker in to alert me when any stock reaches within 5% of my price point.
Thank you for making these awesome videos! Very comprehensive!
Love these videos. Wish I could give them a thumbs up more than once!
Starting my list now!
Another great video, thank you for your hard work. Keep 'em com'n😊
Thanks for the support!!!
Love your videos. Great job Jimmy!
Great content. Keep it up. You should have more subs.
Jimmy, you are doing a great job. Thank you so much! I just watched the movie 'The Big Short' and was keen to see what stocks Dr. Michael Burry has in his portfolio now... So, quick look at the most recent filing:These are the top five holdings: Core Point Lodging, Alexander and Baldwin, Five Point, Tailored Brands and Disney. Apart from Disney, what are your thoughts on the other 4? Thanks!
Great video Jimmy love your way of teaching!
you sound like an italian maffia on netflix. Thanks for the vids btw, I've learned a lot from your vids
I like your style.
Keep doing this, your videos are really good.
Be detailed with your DCF analysis and maybe in future you can do dividend discount model.
Thanks! And for sure the dividend discount model is on my list. Thanks for the support!!!!
Another great video. Adobe, Comcast. Qualcomm, Honeywell International, Vmware inc and update on AMD after Q1 2019 earnings? 30.4.2019 after market close. Thanks :)
Exactly the question in my mind!
It's a great video. It makes sense and cents. Takes work, takes patience and discipline. So it explains when to enter. How ab when to eventually exit? Like if there are better investments elsewhere or if growth begins to slow or the company starts paying too much in stock based compensation. How often do u want to be determining fair value? Is a great company always going to be great forever?
Thank you once again for an amazing video Jimmy
Thanks for sharing your knowledge, love your energy!
The literally only person that I could understand what they’re talking about!!!
I've had good luck with 180 day buy limit orders. This will wait for you for the right price. I also use stop loss sell orders that are going to nosebleed levels. Let it rise. Move the goal post, let it rise, move the goalpost. let it fall, sold locking in capitol gains.
Amazing!
This Is such a great video.
When talking about margin of safety I think a big factor (for me at least) is what is my projected duration of holding said stock and what percentage of my portfolio and/or individual sector it covers. So if i'm looking at a company that has had contentious growth and maybe a decent dividend or historical low volatility during a recession and plan on keeping it for 10 or 20 years then a 5-10% margin of safety is well justified IMO. Personally if I love a stock and its a good buy then im comfortable with 10-15%.
Sounds like a logical plan!
It will be great to us the DCF method. Also your Fair Value of WBA might be a good point to look at as the stock got hammered lately.
I don't use a margin of safety just yet. As I need the entire story to click for me. Valueing a company is one thing, but their story needs to be strong too. Explains my love for RDSA mostly. A company I feel is firing on all cilinders.
I'd love to see the table you have created after you completed the Dow 30 analysis. Do you have a link to that somewhere or is it still in the works?
Excellent analysis Jimmy, would you mind analyzing Tesla?
Jimmy, I've watched two of your videos so far and that was enough to tell me I need to subscribe; so I did. Great content! A question: What do you recommend one does with their cash while waiting on their identified stocks to hit the proper price target?
Jimmy, do you still reply to older videos?
Hey, I try to if I see them 👍🙂.the cash question is a good one, I'm actually working on a video on that.hopefully I can get it out soon. 👍🙂
Hi Jimmy, could you tell us when to apply the abovementioned three methods? Are they similar and universally applicable? Thank you so much!
Great content Jimmy, keep doing your great work.
i would like to know how a foreigner, like me, can start invest on USA or Canada Market. Where do i start? Im from brazil, by the way.
I liked this retrospective review
Had to watch it again, thanks...
Thank you so much for this! Best investment channel out there!
hi jimmy, u do grt work. i am keen to learn so much with you
Thank you! I'm glad you like it!!! 😀
Great Video Jimmy! Can you guide me how to set the fair value for a share..
Appreciate the content. Great value for time spent. Look forward to the other videos to learn the actual valuation methods
I appreciate the Kind Words!!!!
How often would you update the list? Is it like an every day kind of thing?
Thanks man!
Impressive! after reading The intelligent investor and security analysis by Graham and still not fully understand the strategy they used, you could clarify and illustrate so easily the method of the margin of safety and even demonstrate value analysis! Great job!
Thank you Jimmy
I've been looking around TH-cam for people to learn investment from, and you're coming out on top!
Just solid, prudent knowledge and analysis tools, excellent stuff. Will keep recommending.
Now, my question would be, once the stock hits that low, would you trigger a Trailing Stop Order? Just so you don't buy at the Fair value, but at pretty much the lowest value that stock goes within that dip?
Was thinking about gap ticker symbol GPS it is way down hasn't been up in awhile but I think they will bounce back in the next couple years
Yes this way. But honestly just read news articles about the stock your looking into and check the history at least as far as back to a year of when your watching it. Also get a good app like Wall Street journal or something where you can check the chart analytics there you can see with your eyes the future growth on earnings and revenue. And check their debts and assets and liabilities. If you like what you see and feel it in your gut then it’s time! But do your research because it’s easy to buy into companies that will underperform in the future that’s why most people say new investors lose money. But if you take the time to read lots or articles and check the cart analysis you’ll be good.
I really appreciate this man
Love your work
Great video. Do you have a spreadsheet for DCF method?
Very informative. Thank you.
Dude, you're an angel.
Great video Jimmy, thanks
I like Jimmy, he doesn't wear ties, thinks before he speaks, doesn't make money for his contents (except views), and is real!
You're amazing! excellent content!
Kinda similar I guess. I first look at oligopolies or monopolies. If there are more than 10 competitors then I look at P/E and Book value. Even if they are duopolies I still look at the P/E ratio and other fundamentals such equity growth per year. I also look at the economic trends. The interesting thing to watch right now is the stocks that are dying because of covid. Boeing for instance looks like a great deal if we know that they will get bailed out. The cruise industry appears to be a deal if we know that people will immediately start going to cruises after the lockdown.
Jimmy’s the best TH-camr for sure, when it comes to investing anyway 👍
How do you decide with valuation method for which stock works best?
Love your videos Jimmy. 💕
Thanks
You are amazing ..Thanks a lot
Great video. Thanks...