Home Prices Are Falling In More & More Markets Now | Nick Gerli
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ส.ค. 2024
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I find myself frequently repeating the advice that in today's highly bifurcated economy, it's critical to understand the difference between the mean and the median in order to get a true picture of what's going on.
And the housing market is no different.
On the mean, or average, level, US home prices are at a record high.
But in a growing number of markets, a number of them red-hot until recently, prices are down by double-digit percentages. And inventory is spiking.
To make sense of the growing divergences and find out where prices are most likely headed from here, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program housing analyst Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app.
Follow Nick at his TH-cam channel: / @reventureconsulting
And download the reventure app at reventure.app/
#housingmarket #homeprices #housingcrash
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Two of my favorite people!!!!!
REALLY GREAT VIDEO ! YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD.. MY BROKERAGE AND SCHOOL ARE IN FL NC AND TN. THE REALITY IS IT'S JUST BEGINNING. THERE WILL BE HUGE OPPRTUNITIES FOR THE PATIENT AND THE WISE. THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE, PEOPLE DO.. IF EVERYONE GOT IT THERE WOULD NEVER BE A CRASH!
😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😊 46:56 😊😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😊😊😊😊😊😊😊 46:54 😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😊😊😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊
Hi Adam a end of month wrap summary by your take on the guests you interviewed in the month and the weight of agreement and disagreement on the evolving trend in the economy and markets would be very valuable . What are your thoughts ?
Hi Adam @adam.taggart a end of month wrap summary by your take on the guests you interviewed in the month and the weight of agreement and disagreement on the evolving trend in the economy and markets would be very valuable . What are your thoughts ?
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@DonnaMikalonis
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
Donna Mikalonis Crypto knowledge is like a secret recipe for success!
The fact that I got to learn and earn from her program is everything to me think about it, it's a win-win for both ways.
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This is a really interesting take on the housing market. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
In my opinion, home prices will need to fall by at least 40% before the market normalizes. If you're unsure if to buy a house or not, it is best you seek guidance from a well-experienced advisor for proper portfolio allocation. So far, that’s how I’ve stayed afloat over 5 years now, amassing nearly $1m in ROI.
This is probably what I should do. Who is your advisor, please?
Annette Marie Holt is the coach that guides me, you probably might have come across her before I found her through a Newsweek report. She's quite known in her field, look her up.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Nick has been extremely passionate about trying to warn people of what is coming. No one can guess the top or the bottom especially with all of the market manipulation. Nick has stuck it out, continues to compile actual data so that we can make better decisions as this evolves. He has crisscrossed this country many times to see what is actually happening . He has my respect and appreciation .
His TH-cam channel makes him look like a snake oil salesman.
If you lose because of it, his passion just makes you still a loser and what exactly does it mean to you. If you have a home, did you sell it? Dis you make money or do you have none and need confirmation?
I get it. I sold real estate before the GFC. I am holding for this one. I hope I don’t regret it, but I don’t wanna get left behind either. If there are financial opportunities, I plan on taking advantage of it. I don’t always agree with Nick, but I appreciate all of his research and wouldn’t want to be without his research. You and I probably agree on more than we disagree on.
Con men are passionate that is how you trap low info and intelligence. Dude has been totally wrong for years and caused many to miss the chance they had to buy.
@@user-jk5wk7fh5n Research is done by others. What he does is cherry pick what suits his Sky is Falling headlines, which is called Click-Bait. He is just a guy with a YT channel that is not doing well since he has been saying the same thing and it did not happen, save a few markets because INTEREST RATES DOUBLED, because the economy is HOT. It is that simple.
When houses are overpriced by 30-40%, a house that's been reduced by 20% is STILL grossly overvalued.
Exactly! ❤
I’m like what are they talking about …prices have been crazy high and still is!!!!
I thought like that when I looked at a house in Bel Air for about the same money as a house I bought in Dallas 40 years ago. The one in LA grew exponentially more than the one I bought which is much higher than one I could have bought in Ohio. You do not get to wish for supply and demand. All you can do is look at reality, and try to extrapolate. Buying nothing or what you cannot afford will mean you lose since we all need to live somewhere. Nobody needs to buy stock and you cannot live in a bond.
What about inflation adjusted, is it really that far off?
In New Zealand, the market has moved from FOM0 to FOOP, Fear of Over Paying. Banks are also stress testing mortgage applications and becoming more nervous about the security of housing collateral
Realtor in CT and NY here. I’ve been doing this job for a long time and this is easily the weirdest market I’ve ever seen. Properties priced exactly right will still usually get multiple offers. But overprice it even slightly - even just by 2-3% - and the listing will be silent as a tomb, and price reductions barely help. Buyers and sellers are in a tug of war.
Multiple offers is all you need to say. The problem is usually agents that do NOT sell, because that takes work. Better to price it below market so you get easy commission.
I live in upstate ny. Our inventory is at an all time low, prices at an all time high. Predictions are for an increase into next year. This is very much a regional game.
I'm in CT also, I thought we would get more inventory and prices would go down I've been waiting to buy, I don't think I will ever be able to. I see the same thing, if you price it a little under you will get a bidding war, price it at market or top of the market and crickets. Its all psychological.
@@kerrycrandall6472
@@kerrycrandall6472 buy a fixerupper and you will get your bargain and likely make money in doing so
This was great- we should have Nick back every 6 months if not sooner! Very insightful!
In the current economic climate, a home is not the best investment. I've already sold my Boca Grande area home, but I want to invest roughly $200,000 in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?
The truth is that if you make the right picks, you could make killer riches very quickly, although such profit usually needs expertise, as in hedge funds or financial managers. I personally prefer the latter.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advlsor, I currently have $985k in a well-diversified portfollo that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in st0cks, but you also need to be knowledgeable.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Her name is “Annette Christine Conte” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since l need all the assistance l can get. I just scheduled a caII.
When housing prices go up it’s national, when prices go down it’s local 😂
Yes, because inflation, aka expansion of the money supply, comes from the government.
In my local market prices have been stagnant since 2019! In fact i think they are about to start rising now. Yes, housing is a very local thing
Nick is an excellent guest. He brings stats and facts to support his projections. He has always said that the downturn could take years to play out and we’re starting to see this finally play out.
Repeating stats that you mostly made up is meaningless. Being correct is and he never has been.
@@joesmith3590 Yep, broken clock is right twice a day. Saying a cyclical market is going to crash isn't genius, its just a matter of time.
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Home prices have gone down a little. Why is nobody buying?
This is what has went up
Taxes
Water
Sewage
Trash
Insurance
Food
Entertainment
Electricity
Services (home and car maintenance)
Gas
Interest rates
Job loss (good jobs headed to India)
Inflation
College
Lawlessness
Homeless
Drug abuse
Illegal immigration
Political division
Retail theft
Rent
Restaurants
Etc.
We voted for this. We did it to ourselves.
I didn't vote for it.
I didn't vote for it either but I have been told I am an "......ist" and a "....... phobe"......
Precisely summarized, well done!
Gas has been pretty flat in my area for about a decade. Around $3/gallon. Vehicles have inflated 3.5x in the last decade. The Federal Reserve is what causes inflation -- money printing. When more money is in circulation, the value of the money goes down. When the value of the money goes down, prices go up. The other big impact on prices is tariffs. Tariffs are regressive taxes on the poor. We pay them - not Mexico or China or whoever.
Donald Trump passed 25% tariffs on foreign goods coming into this country. The Fed under Donald Trump printed $4 trillion dollars into existence. Trump took us $8 trillion further into debt and left office with 15% unemployment primarily due to C-19 shutdowns. MASSIVELY printing money delayed the inflation.
No you did it to me.
Nick has been screaming for a crash for 4 years. It hasn’t come. You can’t just keep saying things until they’re true and then go “see I was right”
Who says he can't do that? You gonna stop him?
Every fall he comes on to say, "Look, prices are falling." He never says that's what prices do every fall. He did it again right at the opening of this interview, saying that "month over month" prices are down even if he is continuing to be WRONG WROONG WRONG about prices year over year.
Prices are falling but it is regional. Lots of areas have no inventory. For the most part across the US in major cities, prices are going up. Skyrocketing inventory only in some cities.
Inventory skyrocketed and prices went down in the two states I was looking at? He's been correct from where I am. Houses down 100k from their peak. We are waiting to buy! This guy helped my family tremendously and I'm greatful we didn't buy at the peak!
To hell with nick
'The fact that we're already seeing the skyrocketing inventory level now, means things can get MUCH WORSE in the future.'
Hit the nail on the head. As a Texan, I follow our job market every month, and from February to June 2024, the number of Texas job layoffs filed through Texas Warn notice has nearly TRIPLED each month. Layoffs are rapidly increasing across the state, which means that anyone that was hoping to buy a house, they don't have the MONEY to buy anything anymore. So if we're seeing inventory spike now, before layoffs, we're in for a really bumpy ride in Q3 and Q4.
Tell me where FOREIGN investors are going to put their TRILLIONS?
Where?
Bonds? Lol
Their own dying currencies? Lol
Their own dying real estate? Lol
The dollar is not only the most valuable fiat, but this also makes US real estate the most valuable INVESTMENT.
Trillions of dollars are all looking for a place to stash their cash, and that place AIN'T bonds.
Fact in some homes are already price reducing. Only after being on the market after 30 days.
@@dialecticalmonist3405they are still in Detroit 😂
West Texas is doing ok.
It occored to me that many folks are leaving states like texas that have recently introduced an abortion ban..
I see more and more tragedy of the recent home buyer. The have no money to pay tax, insurance, maintanance etc and imminence family stress. I am satisfy renting to focus on career building.
Prices in some areas have come down significantly since 2022. In Austin, prices are down 20% since the peak and they are still going down. Homeowners slashing prices left and right. Saying that he’s been wrong about the housing market is incorrect. The housing market moves slower than a sloth so if you are only looking at was has happened in the last month, you won’t notice a difference.
As a potential buyer, I refuse to buy when my rent is 50% of what my mortgage would be. And on top of a 50% difference, I have to give up cash for a down payment, spend money on repairs, and take on the risk.
It’s not about this graph or that one, what one expert predicts vs another one, but can people actually afford these prices?!?!
Since I know some people will comment that I’m just mad because I can’t afford to buy, FYI, my income is $250K and have $500K in savings, it’s not that I can’t afford it, I refuse to buy at these ridiculous prices.
Same here. I earn a physician's income and have 10 years worth of annual income saved in a balanced portfolio. I also rent and refuse to double my housing costs, debt and risk exposure simply because of the psychological madness of crowds. Stay strong and make quantitative decisions. Resist the sales pitch of narratives and herd behavior. (I will admit, it does sting a little watching the gamblers double their money in a few years by speculating on residential RE.)
For sure not true and you are broke. No one who has money cares what others think to say anything lol.
I think something is amiss... something is not normal. I think something is brewing with housing for illegals. Do you recall the US becoming major shareholders for GM in 2009? Taxpayers lost over 10 Billion. Obama made a ton of money of the GM bankruptcy. I lost over 8K. I bought GM they crashed the stock and bought it back. Something isn't normal.
I agree as well. I prefer my sleep over the risk of property ownership at these prices
@@aaron159r2what prevents you from buying in cash? Genuine question
My wife didn’t believe me two years ago when I said house prices would decline in our area. “It’s an isolated market” she said. Now, before the big panic and hype has even started, home prices are down in our “isolated market” over %20 on average. She’s becoming increasingly patient about buying a house now.
Why don't you admit that you have never owned a house and you want any way to avoid it. My house grew in value despite all the click-bait geniuses like this guy. Housing is all about LOCATION, id, id, id, id.
@@aleski4090 I am a CFP and retired without grievance over a career of 4 decades. How about you? PS. If born in 92, I would now be 32. Before he called it something like Wealthion.
@@buckmaster7185 so what’s your point again?
@@buckmaster7185you seem upset. Holding the bag?
@@aleski4090 You hear nothing and appear to read even less. Your loss! I am the EXPERT and you and the guest ARE NOT. Da ya get it now?
Maybe people are starting to get fed up with the rising prices and greed from Real Estate agents? 6% commission are ridiculous for the amount of work they do. They should be paid hourly like attorneys and accountants.
Dumb comment
That is why the Class Actions are successful but housing is not about agents as much as economics
Thanks guys! I always learn so much and I'm so glad the negative comments from ppl who can't see past the nose on their face don't derail you from your mission. Keep up the great work!
It is a click-bait for people who want validation that they are paying rent for a reason that is good, not bad. Dream on.
@@buckmaster7185 There are good reasons to rent vs buy...I'm living proof
Amazing interview! Always enjoy Nick’s perspective. He has both intellectual integrity and common sense.
And what makes you think so, because you don't have a home either? That is called confirmation bias not intelllect.
@@buckmaster7185 You seem a bit salty, sounds like you didn’t enjoy the interview. Maybe you don’t like the data either.
@@ChrisGenXer Real Estate is all local, and sure, some markets are overpriced, like Palo Alto, but you can buy cheap in Clear Lake. The National numbers keep rising. This guy is not an expert. He is simply ratifying people who never saved and bought their own home and now, want to think they did well. It is sad. I am sorry for those who do not understand. That is all. I have lots of money and do not need any of this.
Once inventory swells and it turns to a buyer's market, home prices will decline. That's deflation, as it pertains to the housing market. Deflation doesn't fuel inflation. Just like inflation, and inflation expectations, deflation is self-reinforcing. Once buyers see the change in direction, many buyers will be either waiting for prices to go even lower, or they'll be offering lowball bids and closing at lower prices, leading to average sale price decline and effectively repricing other homes currently listed or about to be listed. Even worse for sellers, if buyers see the Fed lowering rates and expect mortgage rates to also go lower yet, then some buyers will just sit around waiting for both home prices AND mortgage rates to drop lower. So, a wave of desperate sellers combined with a bit of a buyer strike. At the same time, many consumers are tapped out on credit, and unemployment is likely to be increasing while the Fed is lowering rates, so buyers flush with money will be hard to find. I agree 100% with Nick's assessment that we should be entering a significant housing market crash, or a bursting of the COVID bubble. The solution to the problem of housing affordability is simply for prices to go back down to more reasonable levels of affordability. It's not rocket science.
You have just described a classic positive feed back cycle. This is exactly how herding psychology drives behavioral trends. More begets more and so on. And it works in all directions.
Well spoken
My expectation is that 2028 will be the year with both the lowest interest rates and the lowest housing prices.
They have been predicting that for years, yet prices rose dramatically during pandemic, when people thought they should decline.
Declining prices is NOT deflation.
People have made millions in markets completely ignoring these two guys over the years. 🤣
Ain't that the truth?
Sure you have
Amd they're losing it now
That's the most 2006-7 comment I've ever seen.
@@chasethehorizonxok, let's make a bet. Come back here in December 2025 years. Unless you live in the top 5 largest cities in the US your house will be worth more. If I'm wrong I'll literally email you $10, and vice versa for you. I'm serious, let's do it.
Nick is great thank you for having him on!
I'm a real estate broker and foreclosure liquidator. I've been selling foreclosures for banks since 2011. I work in SWFL and FL. High home provide, inflation, interest rates should push prices down. What I'm seeing in MN no crash low inventory. SWFL, Prices are dropping, LOTS of inventory. I think the most important factor to watch now is inventory, if it grows drastically, then Prices will likely come down. In markets with low inventory, they seem to be holding surprisingly well. As far as foreclosures, they are lagged. It takes a long time for them to get through the process. Sometimes years. As of now, foreclosures are extremely low.
Thank you for the reality the suckers will never learn.
Thanks for having Nick on. I don't know why he gets so much hate in the comment section. He's called for a decline in overpriced markets and it's happening. Nationally, real prices have fallen since 2022. Remember that last time prices peaked in 2006 but didn't bottom until 2012! They also didn't start really falling until recession hit.
I use to be more of a fan of his. But I think the recent hate comes from over sensationalizing of his TH-cam fear based titles over the years on his channel. He keeps saying this time is it doom!!! Crash crash crash. But nothing. So not that housing won’t correct itself but I think people are starting to view him as a fear monger because of the click bait titles he leans towards for views.
Florida and TX are definitely crashing. AZ and Tennessee also huge numbers of price cuts.
@@JonSmith531people in florida cant get insurance because they live in a hurricane state. Idiots live there, have their house blown over and then rebuild. If i was in insurer i would not want to pay either. As for original poster, nick or whatever his name is gets hate because he is an idiot. He has been saying housing market is crashing for years. Guess what it hasnt crashed. One day he might be right lol but that doesnt make him smart.
Nick's copebros stay taking L's
Wait till the government stops record spending
Isn’t this as simple as M2 grew ~30% from early 2020 to its peak. With COVID came remote/telework that allowed people to reprioitize their living situations along with people locked in with low interest rates causing a lack of supply - I’m not sure we are going to see a big correction. Instead what we may find is appreciation over the next 5-10 years be subpar compared to previous years (assuming they are able to get inflation down to nominal levels). On the flip side, government has continued to show they can and will bailout during hard economic times which is a sure way to inflate away their giant debt.
I think that plays into it, but may not be the whole picture. When looking at homes on a popular 'realtor' web site, the first thing I look at is the sales history.
I find the last time it was sold date, use a web-based inflation calculator to see what that price would be today's dollars, then do a delta on the current asking price. I sometimes think the inflation calculator is a little off or under for these last few years, so I just started considered the money supply number you mentioned above, but I estimate it at 40% increase for my backcasting/current relative price evaluation. Some homes I've evaluated with this method are not out of alignment and end up with realistic pricing. However, I'd have to say that many, if not most, are way out of alignment and are asking very high premiums. There seems to be ~ $200-250K magical increase that many of these homes carry (primarily looking at TN).
So, I do wonder that as the excess money supply gets sponged up, will home pricing soften or are we sitting on a new pricing floor? I would imagine that it would boil down to ending wage stagnation being a key to jump start the RE market again (or some deflation), but there still appears to strong demand certain areas (at the zip-code level).
Now this is a smart, thoughtful comment. I wish one of the speakers would have looked at this angle.
I think that plays into it, but may not be the whole picture. When looking at homes on a popular 'realtor' web site, the first thing I look at is the sales history.
I find the last time it was sold date, use a web-based inflation calculator to see what that price would be today's dollars, then do a delta on the current asking price. I sometimes think the inflation calculator is a little off or under for these last few years, so I just started considered the money supply number you mentioned above, but I estimate it at 40% increase for my backcasting/current relative price evaluation. Some homes I've evaluated with this method are not out of alignment and end up with realistic pricing. However, I'd have to say that many, if not most, are way out of alignment and are asking very high premiums. There seems to be ~ $200-250K magical increase that many of these homes carry (primarily looking at TN).
So, I do wonder that as the excess money supply gets sponged up, will home pricing soften or are we sitting on a new pricing floor? I would imagine that it would boil down to ending wage stagnation being a key to jump start the RE market again (or some deflation), but there still appears to strong demand certain areas (at the zip-code level).
shadow banning comments again... are my comments really that problematic???
No new buyers out there at current prices.
Excellent interview! It's always a pleasure to listen to Nick's astute insights on the housing market. I have watched numerous of his videos, and even more of Adam's videos. Nice to see two very sane - and well informed - voices in the same interview together.
Bring on Wolf Richter please. He’s the best economist you’ve had on by a longshot
No, Mike Green is
Wolf Richter just basically gave up and had a defeatist interview last time. I bet he would be even more depressed next time he is on.
You really need to read Wolfstreet, Wolf Richter's blog with multiple posts per week. He is one of the very few independent economists who knows what he is writing about.
@@fabuloushostess6171 Right he threw in the bear towel months ago, a great topping indicator.
@@joshlahoud6072 he’d say all is good with the economy at least that is my take from his blog posts as of last week. I really don’t think much has changed in his analysis since January. But agree wolf is great but doesn’t do many interviews it seems.
That housing inventory app is fantastic.
Best economics interviewer on TH-cam !!!!!
There’s never was a housing shortage, there was a shortage of homes for sale. There is a difference.
Truly said. Rich people sitting on multiple homes thinking that it'd only appreciate in price over time. So far, they have been proven right.
Uh... it is a shortage of houses for sale and being built.
@@user-oy5wk6sg5f Uh...no...there is a 9-month supply of new homes...plenty of supply. The housing shortage was always a myth.
He's right about property values going up are just a pain if you just want to live in your house. I need to consider 'property value decreasing' changes to the house. Maybe above ground pools, get some rusty cars to park in the yard.
In CA, Insurance companies want out . Dropping and not re- newing home owner policies : How do you sell your house if this is the case and the State fund is a very poor alternative . Will add to inventory for non salable homes .
My home insurance increased by 3 times in last 3 years in CA
Fantastic interview.
The market here N. Of DFW is just sitting!
Funny, a half acre in Highland Park is worth $15 Million. How'd that happen????
Excellent discussion - thanks Adam & Nick!
I don't think that I want to buy a house from one of these big corporations. I don't like what they do to them. The very first thing they do is they remove all of the screen doors. Then they paint absolutely everything in the house one color. Even the light fixtures will get painted white. Maybe two colors, white and gray. They will put in luxury plastic flooring, gray of course.
Thank you gentlemen for this informative interview
Thank you for an interesting and thoughtful video.
Thank you for this very comprehensive view of the housing market.
Ignore the negative comments about Nick. I’ve been watching him for years and he is always honest about when inventory is low, etc. I’ve never seen him be sensationalist. What people don’t understand is that the housing market is not the stock market. You can theoretically pick up the nickels in front of the steamroller with stocks, but the housing market is less liquid, so you have to be patient and wait often time a couple of years to not get burned at the top.
I’m super grateful for Nick. In 2021 I was looking, and everyone was saying it was so great and a wonderful time to buy, and I knew something was wrong but felt gaslit by the media. I found Nick-then found Wealthion through him, in fact- and it has kept me patient, which was hard the last few years. Now that I can feel the change in the air, I am so happy I stuck to liquid assets and kept to the sidelines so now I can have more choices in my home purchase.
Long-winded, but Nick is fantastic.
Agreed
One of the best real estate-oriented interviewer/interviewee I've seen to date. Spot on!
Excellent data as always
Oh I love Nick, I follow his channel
Great interview!
Thank you both
Excellent guest. Yes I follow his channel too. Very useful. Thank you both.
Same. Thank you Adam.
Absolutely, great market analysis very educational
I've been told that in Mexico property taxes go down the longer you own the property. This makes sense as it's kind of like depreciation on a car. Why should property taxes and insurance keep going up on a home you own forever?
Dude I never thought about it like that
Insurance goes up because everything gets more expensive so it cost more to rebuild a house as time goes. Real estate tax goes up because the assessed value is higher. The assessed value is related to the market price even though it’s not exactly the same.
The part that really bothers me about taxes going up is that we keep getting less and less in return. We should have the best roads, the best schools, etc. Instead we get toll roads, increases in taxes, public service job payrolls that increase to pay people to rob us.
Umm, control lol
Love the video! Thank you for covering the carrying costs! have been asking about it for a long time!
Great show Adam!
Thanks for the information both of you Nick & Adam
This was amazing!
Great info , thanks
Adam, bravo - Nick is a superb housing analyst providing real world boots on ground results. Keep it coming
Miami is going to get rocked
Insurance is the cost to rebuild, not the property value. Insurance doesn't insure land.
However, while the government was still juicing sales with HERO loans, the cost to rebuild, which went up due to inflation, it hasn't come down. The FHA needs the RC to make sense to finance these properties.
I'm glad Adam keeps bringing Nick, back.
The things he said in late 21 into 22 were correct. His projected outcomes were staved off because the government threw out the fundamentals and staved off the free market outcomes.
As soon as a month ago, Cape Coral was offering 10K to assist homeowners who were behind on payments. Pile this onto foreclosure moratoriums, Hero down payments etc
Lol, and don't you think that the government will continue to do so in the future?
We may see prices drop over the next 3 months, but as soon as Trump is re elected the Fed money printer is going brrrr and rate cuts are coming.
@@FeelingPeculiarno doubt more money will be printed, but that’s just going to overwhelmingly go to the wealthy like it always does. Then that money will be used to “invest” in more risky avenues, and eventually end up buying more SFHs to rent out instead of first time buyers being able to purchase. To be fair, it’s both the Ds and Rs that have contributed to this because that’s who funds their reelection efforts.
Or on current depreciated value. (depends on policy) You may find that you receive the depreciated value of your old roof that blew away in a storm, than the cost to build a new one.
@darwinjina you have to agree to an ACV roof policy. In FL, most will still pay RC in a hurricane or total loss. The roof schedule or ACV is for older roofs and all other claims related to the roof.
@@FeelingPeculiar I don't disagree. Wash.Rinse.Repeat
It's BS.
This was a superb interview from both the interviewer and interviewee ends. 👏👏👏 What I really like about Nick is that the spin is no where to be seen in his commentary. He is observation and data driven and backs up what he says with that data and on the ground observation. 😻 It's so refreshing to hear and see honest, useful advice. Nick has a great future ahead of him, and I very much look forward to you having him on again, Adam. 👍👍👍👍👍
You have listened to DSOTM blazed one too many times. Reventure is a clown that has been wrong for four years. Ignore the content creators here. They will keep you entertained and poor.
Well done.
Thanks Adam and Nick for another great interview!
Excellent interview. Thanks for the insight.
Random thought. If prices in these sunbelt states drop 20-40% while prices remain stable in the NE and Midwest. I think we will see inventories loosen in those markets.
There are a lot of boomers n others near retirement that continue to live in these northern states. They can’t sell n move to the sunbelt with these prices. Also a mortgage locked in at 3% keeps these people in the north. We have a few in my neighborhood like that.
Lower prices in the sunbelt will allow them to move n release those homes. Not sure how much pressure that puts on prices in the NE n Midwest but I can see this playing out in a few years.
I live in Braski & what theyr asking for theyre traah, is 3 times what its worth... in 2006 I bought a 2200 sq ft house. 3 bed, 2 bath on 5 acres for $110,000 at 6% intereat over 30 years. Final payment in hardwriting every payment on time $240,000... after divorce she got the house.Only owed $60,000 to pay off . She sold for $325,000. Make this make sence? Low rates cause badloans. Some sucker has to hold the bag!
Great and highly informative interview - thank you!
It's happeningggggg.
It definitely is. Even in California where inventory is still ridiculously low, I see some sellers buckling to lack of buyer demand and accepting lower offers (but not much lower). I suspect many deals are being done off- MLS.
Excellent analysis.
I absolutely love Nick. Fantastic guest
Great guest Adam! Appreciate the pure RE perspective.
Nick is the man when it comes to this stuff
Snake oil salesman
Nick is great if you bet against him.
excellent data. as usual. thanks
Amazing how many people here think their anecdotal personal experience applies to the whole country.
Not only that but many sellers are very delusional. I sold real estate for several years and almost every buyer thought their home was worth more than it really was. Many sellers wanted to list their homes not based on comps but on the amount they needed either to buy another home they wanted or to get even if the market had gone down and they were under water (which was the case in a few years I sold real estate) - a lot of these sellers would say "I know there is a buyer out there that will fall in love with my exact house and will pay what I am asking even if it is over the market values" - eventually I learned to walk away from these listings unless they would be realistic.
Well that applies to the guest as well. Texas and Florida are the main examples presented. Is that representative of the other 48 states?
Hey, I'll have you know that a ground hog seen my shadow and I get to experience the same day multiple times, in different towns and cities, all across America, and I haven't aged a day. So my anecdotal personal experience applies to the whole country
💯
I am in the midwest and we are deciding to wait it out as well.
Great interview Adam and thank you Nick for sharing!🌞
Great video!
Harry Dent of housing.
It'll be this year!
Maybe.
Things are definitely dropping in my area. I’m waiting a While before I buy. I’ve waited this long I can keep waiting as long as it takes. See that’s the thing, buyers had to figure out how to survive without proper housing. It’s been so long now until we are happy to wait until we get the proper value. I’m fine to just keep saving money and keep putting it in treasury bonds at a great percentage rate. Buy some stocks, a little gold. It’s all good.
Thank you so much for this data point .
Very helpful
Excellent episode!
We keep repeating this cycle.
I work from home. Im moving from Florida to a rural area thats very affordable. I plan to put a small trailer or RV on my sisters property. No tax, no insurance, no mortgate. Its cheaply replaced if needed. That gives me oncome to travel and enjoy life.
So you are going to have your sister pay for it instead 😂😢😮😅
@@russelbrown6275 No. I'm going to pay for my utilities and pay her rent. It's going to be much less than I'm paying now.
Thanks for the great video Adam ❤
NAR reported, “Foreign buyers purchased $53.3 billion worth of US residential properties between April 2022 and March 2023.” National Association of Realtors
It is because they know more than the people here, who just do not want to take on ANY responsibility. Doing nothing is a default for failure to earn any equity. My equity in my house is over 1 Million, plus I got to live in a big home with a pool for all those years.
@@buckmaster7185 What is keeping you from buying a second home then? Or 5 more? If RE such a fool-proof, brilliant plan, why not double down ad infinitum?
@@aaron159r2 Your absurd hyperbole shows you unworthy of a response. I do not need you for anything. Being a doom gloom naysayer is warranted for tech stocks but not a single family home that people need to live in. Stay a renter and see what it gets you.
@@buckmaster7185yes you must have bought when prices were low
Ofcourse you are laughing now
Most likely the same reason for the Bitcoin boom. Criminals are moving money out of China as fast as they can and parking it in USD before the Chinese government repatriates their assets. Their time is limited.
Adam and Nick, where do you see the housing market headed in Massachusetts?
please stop looking at data on the state level, there is no "Florida" market. There are multiple markets within the state of Florida with different supply and demand drivers....
Florida at least needs a coastal and inland clarification. Huge difference in markets.
The state market is the average of all of the markets within the state. It’s a good high level indicator, you silly goose.
Watch Nick’s channel he goes into individual cities and areas around Florida. This was a broad general video
Excellent video, I like how he is boots on the ground. 👏🏾👏🏾
Buy Bitcoin and crypto. Don't "invest" in real estate, very stupid idea.
Great interview. I am in small business in Oz (though in a different field), and we see the same chaotic phenomenon as the Houston inventory. It's like two cars driving on the highway in opposite directions, and the driver of each looking at the other saying 'hey, you're going the wrong way'.
One does need to consider household incomes and house prices and cost of ownership like property taxes insurance etc
Nick uses a rational approach
Unfortunately housing does experience manias and international capital flows
And reset can take a decade
if you look at last 15 years of ZIRP and QE. each recession the feds have been deployed more and more liquidity into the system. there is a disconnect with asset values vs market fundementals. just because main street is struggling doesnt mean wall street will struggle as you can tell....i live in florida, Nick is cherry picking areas. weve never had a recessionary period where inflation is sticky and the higher the rates, the more inflation and vice versa.
the strong dollar is negating international buyers. the buyers are institutional and hedge funds
if this japan with lost decade then feds would not have done what they did in march 2023 with SVB regionals. it literally took only 48 hours to deploy new liquidity and lending program.
@@bitcoindaddy1 yes and my rent up 40 percent in 4 years
My pay not
Nic doesn't believe California homes prices will go down, but I'm confused because they did during the 2008 crash, any thoughts on this?
I think it'd go down. Matter of time. Totally un affordable market. Insurance companies are fleeing state and insurance cost have gone up the roof. Something has to give in, dont know what.
@drajdew1664 Thank you for taking the time to answer!
You guys are confusing the cart for the horse. Rates will only come down when the economy stalls and/or recession. Rates will come down when unemployment starts to peak. Yes, lower rates, but less buyers because they are now unemployed. Will be a glut of homes, scarce jobs. Everything will deflate and home buyers will be worrying about where to buy eggs, not which house to choose.
I'm not confused about that at all. Have said the same thing many times.
@@adam.taggart yes and thank you for the thorough videos you provide us.
Great interview ! Thankss
14:16 - Adam explains the Fed/Keynesians apoplithorismosphobia. The idea that consumers will never buy because they always expect lower prices is utter 🐂💩.
Buyers will come back just as soon as the value of the home they are purchasing is worth more to them than the value of their labor/currency necessary to purchase it. In simpler terms, when the price of the home (or the payment on the home) relative to income comes down from stratospheric levels to something more reasonable, buyers will emerge.
The problem is that Fed heads and Keynesian types want to keep prices at stratospheric levels because they own assets. It's entirely self-preservation/greed.
"The idea that consumers will never buy because they always expect lower prices is utter..." Who has the idea that consumers NEVER buy? They don't buy in falling markets in sufficient numbers to hold prices up. Naturally, if anyone did think as you claim a decline in house prices would be chronic and self-reinforcing. By this logic all house prices would be zero. I don't think I've heard anyone, ever say that.
@@davisutton1 Then you haven't been paying attention, because that's the fundamental basis for all Fed/central bank inflationary policy, such as a 2% inflation ceiling/target/floor and as I said... apoplithorismosphobia. Maybe you should look it up and learn something.
The average consumer buys the top (fomo) and is forced to sell the bottom. Yes, the Keynesians want to keep prices inflated, but normal market forces include price corrections and discoveries. We haven't had true discovery since 2009.
@@achillesegaruoc1807 I would argue that we never really got it in 2009 either. Instead of letting housing drop as far as it should have, they printed 4 trillion dollars to inflate everything else up to catch up with housing.
@@FreeSpeech4All I could certainly agree with that. It's the double-bubble. Which should cause extreme price reductions (if normal market forces are allowed to take over).
Prices are coming down in Houston area and days listed is longer.
The housing market is always about to crash, but it doesn’t. First, the housing market is local. Second, house prices are much stickier than stock prices, which really can crash. Think 1987. Third, the federal government always does everything within its power to keep house prices from falling. Every government policy that I can think of puts upward pressure on house prices either by increasing demand or reducing supply. In any event, the housing market will not “crash” until the stock market crashes, which will discourage the wealthy from spending money on houses and other things. Don’t expect a stock market crash before 2025.
Bingo. You beat me to it.
Waiting for housing prices to crash is like waiting for the US Government to default from excessive budget deficits. There might be good arguments for this and some logic why this should happen -- but it hasn't gone this way for a long time.
@@cathrynmgo ahead and buy
Here is south Florida there are plenty of homes for sale that are now $2MM. They have been flipped 2-3 times and the price was $500K in 2021.
Every time they are sold, no one ever seems to move in.
The inventory is now at pre pandemic levels.
How many of these empty home do you want at 2MM?
You should hurry before it gets flipped again and the new price will be $3MM!
@@shanerogers9386 sounds like the ponzi scheme in full swing while there is still the “greater fool” until the music stops and the last fool is holding the bag
Excellent interview again with Adam and Nick. The data speaks for it's self, the day of reckoning will be upon us soon enough!
Spot on Nick 👍
Great show! Very eye opening.
Fed says no rate cuts coming soon.
Does that mean home prices hold steady? Guess we'll find out
Thank you very much...
Great discussion
That is excellent news!
Right before the 08 housing crash realtors and "experts" said ..."the market is great, buy now 🤪" just like the realtors and "experts' are saying now. I'll wait for the crash, even if that's 5 years from now.
You mean when prices “crash” back to more than what they are today? What’s the sense in that? People who held off in 2021 will still be paying more with higher rates even if the market fell 20%.
@@hood6854 No.. because prices are not going to rise from today, they will flatline or slowly go down until the(a) big crash. Thus is because average Americans can't afford a house today, prices going up won't solve that problem so something has to give.
@@nKm-2023 does something have to give? Or do you just want something to give? Unfortunately, the market doesn’t care much what you think or want.
@@hood6854 ..yes, the market doesn't care about what 90pcnt of Americans want 🤪
@@nKm-2023 Yes, that’s exactly how the market works.
great video!
One thing I disagree with is that the neighborhoods where prices have remained stable will continue to remain stable. If prices in other areas are falling, it will hit all areas eventually.
Don't buy until there are many homes being sold in distress.
You will never own or have anything with that attitude. This is not 2008 but if you are only 29, and never read a text book you can hope it is, all you want. Landlords love it.
Great information; particularly with regard to Florida.