Real estate zealots were expecting real estate to go up at 10 to 20% a year in perpetuity. I’ve met these people. An entire generation of these people hasn’t seen RE go down.
I want this correction much of the country is in to continue. If people, particularly speculators/investors loose money on housing it will force a reckoning. I purchased my first home last October for 5% below the asking price of 6 weeks prior. The asking price had been lowered 2.6% after the previous potential buyers financing fell through and my offer 2.4% below that was accepted.
Yeah it makes me sick. The "lottery winners" who benefitted from this act as if they deserve it. Whenever people benefit from no work, someone else is losing.
in 2007, the average resale home price in Calgary was $414,066, compared with $377,029 in Toronto and $570,795 in Vancouver. In the early 1980s, Calgary also ranked ahead of Toronto.
Do you have any data on number of homes built in the respective cities since then? I have a strong suspicion that Calgary has created new supply much more in line with demand than either of the two larger metros.
A lot of people don't realize that alberta was in a bad recession from 2015 to 2020 with home prices down over 15%. That is why alberta has so much hatred towards the current federal government. They were bailing out companies like snc lavelin and bombardier but refused to help alberta. I live in calgary. In 2014 my property assesmnet was 460k in 2019 it was 375k.
@@mattvan5100 Because of people like you the province has now called on 1000000 people to move to Alberta to pump up property prices because theres nothing else going on. Home owners are not innocent in this mess.
@@WizardHarry69I don't get what you mean by people like me? A property owner? I'm not saying I want prices to sky rocket. In a perfect world to me, house prices would rise and fall with average wage inflation. These speculators are the ones ruining it for everyone
Things are generally not that complicated: take a pencil, a pad, and a calculator. Put down two (or max three) AVERAGE salaries as an income (if both you and your wife work). If your wife does not work, or if you do not work, then put ONE AVERAGE salary as an income (at max, you can go as high as 1.5 times the AVERAGE salary). Do NOT count on a fat-paid salary (if you're getting one at this time), since no one guaranties it will be there for another 25 freaking years! Now, calculate your income Vs. the expenses. If the house expenses / income ratio exceeds 25-30%, do not buy anything. Assumption is that we're talking about regular people (not flippers or "investors" - I truly hate this term nowadays) who have no money to cash out the house, or parents to pitch in, or already own a property. Edit: whatever they are telling you NOW about the interest rates, ignore, and assume 6%. With all these assumptions, you might be able to keep your head above the water when things get rough! Because, guess what: things WILL get rough. If you rush into a mortgage with say the current high salary, and with current relatively low interest rates, your life will turn into a constant fear where you will watch all the news relentlessly and in panic, to make sure that nothing globally threatens to stir up the pot. You can also kiss your freedom goodbye, and you will more-less be prepared to even sell your soul to avoid losing the home. And that, my friends, ain't no life, but a prison sentence! The current system is OBVIOUSLY rigged, so use the God-given brain, for heaven's sake! So, let me calculate things for you for free. 1. both husband and wife work fat-paid jobs. 2. still, assume say 3 average salaries as an income. For Ontario, we're talking some 70k x 3 = 210k a year. This will be a bit of a strain if you both lose your jobs, and are forced to work for a couple of average salaries, and I personally would never go above 2 average salaries. 3. say, we're talking detached houses here (no maintenance fees). Still, put aside $200 a month, for various repairs. 4. let's assume that the tax is $200 a month. 5. let's assume you'll take $35k each from your RRSP, for the down payment. So, we're talking $70k down payment. You have 15 years to return this, but let's say you'll be able to fully repay this from your companies' annual bonuses, so all is cool. No additional monthly payments here. 6. let's assume that you'll put down less than 20% downpayment. So, add some $10k of the government mortgage insurance. 7. personal mortgage insurance plus property insurance say $200 monthly. 8. so, all these hidden monthly costs make: 200 + 200 + 200 = $600 9. 30% of the annual income (personally, I wouldn't go higher than 25%) is: 0.3 x 210,000 = $63,000. Divided by 12 months, we're talking $5,250. 10. subtract the hidden costs, so your monthly mortgage should not exceed: 5,250 - 600 = $4,650 a month. 11. alrighty, now, for a 6% interest rate, we're roughly talking about $670 a month for every $100,000 borrowed from the bank. 12. how much can you borrow from the bank? Glad you're asking. You can borrow: (4,650 / 670) x 100,000 = $694,000. Say $700,000. 13. subtract the government insurance of $10,000, and it means you can borrow $690,000. But, it's so close, so let's say that you can borrow $700,000. 14. and now, the final answer: what is the home price that you can afford? It is $700,000 + $70,000 (down payment) - $10,000 (government insurance) = $760,000. There ye go. THIS should be our high-end average home price in Toronto, and not 1.1 million or something like that. This is still a bit risky stuff. If you're asking me, NEVER go above 2 average salaries when calculating the income (so, instead of $210k, start with $140k). And never go above 25% house cost / income ratio!
This is a good video. Thanks for your quality content. Some people may hate me for this but I hope home prices continue to correct. Unless national average sale prices get below 2019 levels I don’t think we have anything to worry about.
@@Canadian_Eh_I I heard that the price for the median Oakville, ON home has come down $375k from the peak. This is crazy to me as the selling price for the house I bought in October 2023 was $375,500. It was built in the 1950s but has been updated and well maintained. I could likely earn 40-50% more doing a comparable job in the GTA or GVR but with housing prices averaging 200% more my quality of life wouldn't be higher. Sure they are "cooler" cities but, if I can't afford to enjoy them that benefit is null.
You are not alone. In order to restore affordability in Canada and prevent Canadians from leaving, prices need to come down quite a bit more. They are ridiculously high - garbage quality homes within a 200 km radius of the GTA sell for north of $1 million - not normal. Anything below that point is a tear-down or needs complete reno. The fact that people are actually throwing this sort of money around when money is MORE EXPENSIVE than it was during the pandemic, when money was CHEAP, should be of concern to people. Money has increased in value with QT and yet prices do NOT want to come down substantially enough to restore affordability. Something is off with this picture and don't try pushing the inventory BS on me... 3 out of 5 houses sold within the past 5 months in my Toronto neighborhood are UNOCCUPIED - money laundering perhaps, or just a place to park cash in? I see the "new" owners drive over to these houses on the evening before garbage day, pull the garbage bins out onto the curb, and drive off again. No intent of living in the houses but just a very keen intent on making it "look" like they are occupied, with timers on their interior lights and the garbage bin scheme going. This seriously needs to end and our gov has created laws with so many loopholes they make Swiss cheese jealous. Too little too late and all just for show, with no substance.
To keep a ponzi scheme going you need to attract new investors like a first time home buyer loan. You also need to prevent older investors from withdrawing from they investment like adding a tax to the sale of a primary residence. Both of these things have been implemented from our governments. I think we need governments to work for its citizens again.
I would highlight the fact home prices dropped in January vs going up. We all know that is a total trend change as home prices virtually NEVER go down from December. Ever.
Jon, thank you for the great videos! My daughter works for a builder in Calgary and as you can imagine, business is insanely brisk. Every once in a while, she wonders if she should buy a home and I keep telling her to wait and I send her your updates as soon as you post them. Of course, I will be the one to blame if the Calgary residential real estate market continues its absurd bull run, but the macro picture across Canada, not to mention the ongoing implosion of China's economy and banking system suggests we will all be in the same boat, not-so-merrily rowing down Shit Creek in the not so distant future. ;)
My dad gave me the same advice in '06. Bought at end of 2010. The time will happen. Hold on there. Regardless of immigration. People need income. Oil bust, there goes everything else.
I've seen that realtor commission is under review. I've always thought those rates are to high. Especially in BC. We paid 21000 to our realtor in BC and only 3000 to one in Alberta. He did way more work for us than the BC one.
Thanks Jon. Investors should be incentivised to build new inventory, and prevented from hoarding existing inventory. Hoarding existing inventory just pushes up prices, as there's another intermediary who wants to take a cut. With normal interest rates (5% is normal!), condo builders can't build affordable houses. That's the message. Most people demanding high density housing expect others to live in it, not themselves. We need to keep 5% interest rates, force unproductive businesses to improve, and allow more productive businesses to grow and deliver the affordable homes that people want to live in. If that means opening up new areas for building, and reducing taxes on builders, then all levels of government should tell us how that's going to work.
Investors should be incentivised to invest in other industries and not treat RE as part of their investment portfolio. Canadian business is dead, foreign investment in REAL business, industry, R&D and anything other than RE, is DEAD. Simply put - Canada needs to stop allowing RE to be an attractive investment tool.
Absolutely 100%. Interest rates are NORMAL now, and should stay exactly where they are for a long time. The era of free money is over, so much damage has been done. The speculators and vultures are complaining as if prime rate was 20 percent. Furthermore, agree 100% with your other comment. Every single politician who is pushing for relaxed zoning in residential neighbourhoods, deserves to have a brand new 4-storey multiplex building on BOTH sides of their home. See how they like densification then.
You probably won't like my reply but the solution is to simply blanket-ban any sort of for-profit "investment" in residential housing. Leave it to the not-for-profits (like co-ops and land trusts), and investors can go commercial or any other goods/services that aren't considered a human right, like housing. 'Building new inventory' is no guarantee that any of that new inventory will be any more affordable than what already exists, and there are no amount of incentives that will encourage most developers to build affordable housing. We already tried that. It doesn't work. One need only look to China's astonishing 'ghost cities' and an estimated vacancy-rate capable of housing up to 1.4 BILLION people to see that "increased supply" does not solve housing affordability problems. Greedys' are gonna greed. Rent-seeking must be abolished for this to ever get any better.
I should be able to commission a bilder to build a house for me. Right now builders ahve all the power. We need to be able to build at our pace and not at their pace.
@@jonflynn Durham, and been here long enough to tell you the data doesn't surprise me. People were ready to sell their kids just to get in a house a couple of years ago. Now I'm watching for-sale signs pop up like dandelions.
Can someone explain why 14:07 is not the drop everyone is "waiting" for? 20-30% seems like a crash to me. We are essentially hoping for 2 crashes back to back?
I’m not saying this will happen by any means, but reversion to the mean would pretty much mean a return to pre-pandemic house prices, then a 40% crash.
@@CarlosLiberatedalso need to account for change in M2 (inflation definition was conveniently changed from higher money supply to higher prices, aka the symptom of the original definition/cause).
Well, compared to the last 5 or 10 years, when most houses were being significantly underpriced, and nearly every one was then sold for 10, 20 or even 30 percent over asking, as proudly announced on the SOLD sign.@@darincarswellrealtor1471
It’s difficult to keep a level head, especially for someone who thinks/expects things to be sane in the world. Appreciate your insights and video Jon 👍
Buying and renting out SFHs is a bad business model and it's almost impossible to make money doing it. This is because a house is a non productive asset and the rent will likely not ever cover the ownership and carrying costs. Any company that does this as a business doesn't know their ass from a hole in the ground. An individual owner will just absorb the costs (the losses) but a business exists to make a profit so they will be in trouble.
The only upside of being a landlord is appreciation. It's a good retirement savings plan if your in for 20 to 30 years. But as far as rent collected against mortgage,taxes and upkeep, there is little or no profit along the way
I am of the same mind as you, to build more apartment buildings to house renters and leave the single family homes for 1st time home buyers (not investors). Practically how to go about implementing this strategy when its so difficult to either find vacant land or so expensive and time consuming to buy a few single family homes, tear them down, change the zoning and build an apartment building in its place?
When you’re talking about biggest month-over-month price changes at 13:15, it can be a bit misleading unless you also show how much these regions had appreciated in 2023. It looks like most of the big movers are simply correcting to their normal price levels.
The Soo's rental prices for their Airbnb's in town last year were double (2x!) those of the year before. Needless to say, we didn't go. I wonder if these properties being in limbo had anything to do with the sky high rental fees last year.
@@walterpen371 Virtually none in Ontario but most of it is all out west in British Columbia. Markham and Richmond Hill drive the prices in the Golden Horseshoe.
@@jonflynn The 2020s will be remembered as the decade of the scam. All the scummiest people in the world decided to wake up and take advantage of the pandemic
lol Calgary is scary.. Our average cost is still 30% less than bedroom cities in Ontario. Calgary 1.7 million people economic centre of western Canada and is on the global city list and a major head quarter city . Anyone who has lived here their whole life as I have, has been waiting for this since 2014. We have an entire decade of catching up to do with nowhere to fall. Migration extremely high with no end in site. Economics 101. Supply and demand. Canada slept on Calgary but anyone who stuck with the city when it was beat down will do every well this next decade. I may be wrong because no ones knows the future but facts speak for themselves and people want to be here.
@@alexrubin5955 New home prices are skewing the average home prices a lot higher. The same would happen in the rest of Canada if they built new homes instead of new apartments.
In Victoria, people are listing their houses at 20 to 30% above March 2022 peak prices and yet the statistics are saying that buyers are paying 16% below the March 2022 prices. The realtors out here are saying that there is a frenzy of sales, but I am not seeing it. Where can I get real data on the Victoria housing market as I feel that the data from the VRB is highly manipulated and is only backing up the narrative of realtors, higher prices forever. I really don't know where the money is coming from for people to buy 1M+ houses as it seems the Albertan's, Ontarian's and Vancouverites are not coming over as much and the local economy can't afford $1M+ houses as the average family income in Victoria is around $68,000 per year.
My data includes all residential properties and is taken from the victoria board. Most boards and regions like to only report the positive numbers though.
Nice video Jon. This Global real estate crash has just started and real estate prices across North America will plunge down to their 2012 levels in this downturn. Looking forward to a video on your channel showing this reality when it occurs within the next few years!
@@atothez418exactly lol. These bears have zero common sense and live in their fantasy world. Prices will be higher next year. And alas, John will never admit he’s wrong. Me and a few others will hold him accountable, however.
So that last sales to listings ratio, I live in Durham and I am looking at prices in Wasaga Beach area, and that graph is spot on to what I am seeing, Wasaga Beach has some great buys rignt now, comparativley speaking , to what I can sell for in Durham. So just wanna say good job this man. You really are providing a great service by laying out the data as it is. No bs.
Thanks Jon, I recall some of your videos from about a year ago where you felt we would be headed back to pre-Coivid pricing. Do you still feel this is the case? I was somewhat thinking the same. I no longer feel this will happen. Further drops will be muted by high immigration and with sky-rocketing rents investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the numbers to make sense.
Hey, I still think we're headed there, Most likely early 2020 pricing which is also 2019 prices. Once we get there we will most likely sit there for years
@@jonflynninteresting, I enjoy all the analysis, data is a powerful thing. Im amazed you feel prices would drop that much. Keep up the great work, this is excellent marketing for you.
Jon, in one video you showed charts that show house prices drop following BoC rate cuts. This happened in multiple countries. In this video, Calgary is the anomoly: it goes up while everybody else is going down. Do you think Calgary is so different that it can defy all laws of housing market? Or will it one day comply because it is the law of nature?
I just sold my home after buying in 2019. With the new interest rates my payment was about to jump $852 a month even if i reset to 30 years. I am noticing near me (Northumberland), Most of the homes for sale were purchased 3 or 5 years ago. I was able to come out with some good equity, so I'm hoping if prices fall further, I can get back into the market.
Hi Jon, it would be nice to see the state of the 5 metrics of the economy again as to when it's a good time to buy in real estate. I sense and hear many are so eager to get back into the real estate market. its comes from experts, real estate CEO's which to me seems more like a sales pitch. Multiple offers, but the house is priced way below value in order to get a bidding war. overall, I sense many are being dishonest and trying to entice people to buy and get out of their own bad decisions.
Hello Jon, I watch you all the time. I really like the honesty, as well as the data. The one thing in this video you made a comment on Calgary, you did say beware of the buying at the top of the market. I would like to say I moved here to Calgary from Fonthill Ontario 2 years ago. We bought our 2-bedroom condo with heated underground parking for 174,000. Our condo fees are 415 per month that includes all utilities and property taxes of 1000 Dollars per year. It adds up to 500 per month all in. No where in Ontario could I get what I have here. (nowhere)Today at present a 2-bedroom condo exactly the same as our in our building sold for 265,000. Real estate is up for sure in Calgary, but well below what is in Ontario. There are still lots of condos for sale here for 200K and single-family homes you can buy for 500K with a garage. I see that Calgary is starting to equalize with Canada as a whole. You say watch when you buy in Calgary? not sure why? Where can a couple in Ontario buy a 2-bedroom condo, for 200k to 250k. Young working couples can get into the housing market here even at these prices of today. 3 years ago, Real estate was well below averages everywhere. Today prices are higher but still affordable compared to most big cities. Calgary how a lot to offer in Real-estate, work and everyday living. Alberta Inter provincial numbers are up. Why? everything. In my opinion Calgary real estate is still a good time to buy. As always time will tell, but still enjoy your honesty and your data. Cheers
also, our condo built in 2008, very updated, live behind a plaza with shoppers, Sobeys, plus walk in clinic, eye care, doctors, buses services at the front everything you need. pretty hard to find that in most places in Ontario or BC for these prices plus a 5% sales tax versus 13%. NO sales tax on used cars, A great city for younger and older people to get ahead.
@@garyallan5795 Jon has absolutley no insight or knowledge of the Calgary market. He just reads the press releases and then tries to spin his fear narrative.
Thanks for the info. It seems like Calgary's market pricing is better aligned with many US cities which is classified as a bubble or run up in real estate prices. The problem is Ontario and BC are in super bubbles which make places like Calgary seem affordable. for a first time buyer to buy a place like yours with 10% down they would be paying $1900-2000/month, that's still $24,000/year just for housing. It seems cheap compared to Ontario but Ontario is so far past affordable and achievable it's hard to compare. Ontario should have Calgary pricing in reality which would make Calgary lower by comparison. Either way thanks for the detailed comment, much appreciated.
@@jonflynn I would also like to say a young couple making 22 dollars an hour would take home close to 5,300 hundred a month together. yes, there housing costs would be 1900 to 2000 per month, in a 225k condo, but that would be all bills in. The condo fees include all utilities heat and water, so, 500 fees and taxes plus 1500 per month mortgage. That would leave them approx. 3300 per month for the rest of their expense's. Sure, a condo is not for everyone, but it's a great chance for young people to own something vs rent and gets them into the market to move forward later to buy a town house or a house. Even at today prices with food, gas insurance and other things they could still save money with 3300 extra per month after the housing costs. You can't find that in too many big cities in Canada, and 22 dollars per hour jobs here in Calgary are easy to find.
Ya but luckily not to my level.Just lucky timing and bought during the middle of the local recession in early 2016. It would have to crash harder as a %, than in the early 80's, to approach my buying price. Prices are ridiculous here though. I still think 2024 will be steady and then shit will hit the fan. Of course this will come with QE on both sides of the border. The Fed speakers with the most influence (Powell of course and Goolsbee) have led the narrative now to hold steady and we'll see about cuts. Before it was all hold steady and we'll raise if we have to.
Great video - thank you. What do you think of all these mastermind networking real estate groups that charge a membership fee? Wealth genius, keyspire, cash flow tribe etc?
I think they're all businesses that are operating for profit. You may learn a thing or two but they're ultimately a waste of time and are similar to lead generating services. I've used a few over the years and regret it every time. The best experience and knowledge is organic which you acquire in your own personal day to day interactions.
in victoria, a house just listed in my hood for 1.35 million. same price other houses were selling for at the peak. i was surprised the open house was BOOMING. still seems to be on the market though... after a week. -16% seems off. that must include condos? i know there are a pile of those coming up for sale and that would make sense.
@@PicklemediaYou're right. I'm not talking peak oil and to honest, peak oil has been a term in Canada since the 1970s. "Running out of oil" is another one. Low oil prices come and go. Very cyclical.
Where do you get your stats? Some bullish realtor tiktok channel? This is from TRREB report released this morning: The MLS® Home Price Index Composite in January 2024 was down by less than one per cent year-over-year in January. The average selling price was down by one per cent year-over-year to $1,026,703. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price also trended lower.
Prices are expected to rise from BOC as well in 2024. Rates will be slowly cut, we have pent up demand that is only growing and no supply. Many people can’t afford, but with more and more people and less building and supply, prices will rebound. John will eventually have to admit he’s wrong. Probably realize it later this year or in 2025. But based on his previous videos, he will ignore and still call of a crash. His loyal watchers think we will have 2012 prices. That tells you where their mindset is.
@@rosatipicks Not sure if Canadians can justify making home purchases at these rates and Powell is pretty firm that rates are staying higher for longer to undo all the QE and fiscal manipulation from the last 15 yrs. Also, Canadian unemployment data is out Friday and projections for March are not good, here and the US. Layoffs are happening and finding new jobs has become increasingly difficult across all industries. We are in a recession unfortunately , it is just a matter of time for sentiment to shift. @jonflynn John amazing content! I have been watching your videos for some time. Love the home buying recipe, more FTHB need to listen to realtors like you!! If they exist 😅
Nice analysis John. I moved to New Brunswick in April of 2021. There were a few Provinces that missed out on the housing boom and New Brunswick was one of them. I moved here because it was 80% wilderness. I purchased a 5000 sq. ft. Cape Cod style house planted on 5 acres of land, the property taxes are less than $900 per year, and I have well water and septic. I paid $74,000. For Canadians looking for a great alternative the East Coast is a great place to go
The vitriolic best bud trope in full effect 😂 Even Tyson and Holyfield found a way forward I believe you two can! They even went into business together🌳This could be the beginning of a beeeeautiful joint venture😅
Calgary here. Things are on fire but Calgary's average price is less than Toronto and Vancouver hence the influx of buyers. Alberta's job market can be a bit volatile depending on energy market. Something to watch.
@@zhouyou28 Ask the drivers with BC and ON license plates. A lot of people are moving here from other provinces. That is why property prices are on fire.
@@zhouyou28Considering AB is seeing record numbers of people coming to AB that are ousting 40yr records. This place will be a big wake-up call when they're not finished these promised jobs. Reddit is full of people asking why they can't get a job interview anymore.
Calgary has a shortage of listings not a shortage of housing. Listings on rentfaster have doubled in the past year and we are now approaching a renters market again. Hmmmm? Where’s the headlines about the increasing vacancy rate here?
Thanks for the info, the same thing is happening in Toronto. Looks like Calgary has had over investment and speculation just like Ontario. I wish I had access to historical data to report on this.
John may know prices will rebound and not crash. He might just want to continue talking doom and gloom to gain subscribers. And if so, kudos to him. But he’s gambling. And it looks like he is wrong as prices are tracking to be up 5% this year. Will he be accountable? Probably not. Will there be consequences? Maybe. But what those consequences will be, who knows. Fewer views maybe or just angry renters that continue to watch and pray that Jonnie is right.
Look at Richmond Hill and prices follow Richmond Hill and Markham. Richmond Hill will lead the country in price gains this year. Not Calgary Richmond Hill.
All those losses will be whipped out this year when Justin Trudeau brings in millions of South Asians to work 5-6 jobs at once. Also Toronto being a world class city when Justin Trudeau allows five families to live in one household.
House prices will be going up in 2024 from Jan to Jun some 20% rise. I.e an astonishing 200K-300K hike for a single family house in GTA! There are enough buyers ready to jump into market for FOMO. Unfortunate but likely. I wonder if BOC will consider this as inflationary and hold rates or just leave it to Canadians to live/deal with it and start rate cuts!! Interesting times.
The big rise will be in the second half of the year due to the presidential election in November in America. Big rate cuts coming due to the U.S. election.
Why don't you post your forecast vs the actual prices as a comparison to CREA? You were spot on in 2023 with prices going way down right? You even had one of your trademark charts to show where prices were going. And don't try your trademark I don't remember type comments. Maybe watching your video from December 2022 laughing at the forecast the Royal LePage made then might jog your memory.
When the tide is gone is when you will find out who was swiming naked
Real estate zealots were expecting real estate to go up at 10 to 20% a year in perpetuity. I’ve met these people. An entire generation of these people hasn’t seen RE go down.
I want this correction much of the country is in to continue. If people, particularly speculators/investors loose money on housing it will force a reckoning. I purchased my first home last October for 5% below the asking price of 6 weeks prior. The asking price had been lowered 2.6% after the previous potential buyers financing fell through and my offer 2.4% below that was accepted.
Yeah it makes me sick. The "lottery winners" who benefitted from this act as if they deserve it. Whenever people benefit from no work, someone else is losing.
in 2007, the average resale home price in Calgary was $414,066, compared with $377,029 in Toronto and $570,795 in Vancouver. In the early 1980s, Calgary also ranked ahead of Toronto.
Do you have any data on number of homes built in the respective cities since then? I have a strong suspicion that Calgary has created new supply much more in line with demand than either of the two larger metros.
The current rise in prices is insane and incomprehensible by any metric of logic.
A lot of people don't realize that alberta was in a bad recession from 2015 to 2020 with home prices down over 15%. That is why alberta has so much hatred towards the current federal government. They were bailing out companies like snc lavelin and bombardier but refused to help alberta. I live in calgary. In 2014 my property assesmnet was 460k in 2019 it was 375k.
@@mattvan5100 Because of people like you the province has now called on 1000000 people to move to Alberta to pump up property prices because theres nothing else going on. Home owners are not innocent in this mess.
@@WizardHarry69I don't get what you mean by people like me? A property owner? I'm not saying I want prices to sky rocket. In a perfect world to me, house prices would rise and fall with average wage inflation. These speculators are the ones ruining it for everyone
Wait a minute. Are you telling us that some real estate agents are scam artists? What a shocker.
lol
Things are generally not that complicated: take a pencil, a pad, and a calculator. Put down two (or max three) AVERAGE salaries as an income (if both you and your wife work). If your wife does not work, or if you do not work, then put ONE AVERAGE salary as an income (at max, you can go as high as 1.5 times the AVERAGE salary). Do NOT count on a fat-paid salary (if you're getting one at this time), since no one guaranties it will be there for another 25 freaking years! Now, calculate your income Vs. the expenses. If the house expenses / income ratio exceeds 25-30%, do not buy anything.
Assumption is that we're talking about regular people (not flippers or "investors" - I truly hate this term nowadays) who have no money to cash out the house, or parents to pitch in, or already own a property.
Edit: whatever they are telling you NOW about the interest rates, ignore, and assume 6%. With all these assumptions, you might be able to keep your head above the water when things get rough! Because, guess what: things WILL get rough. If you rush into a mortgage with say the current high salary, and with current relatively low interest rates, your life will turn into a constant fear where you will watch all the news relentlessly and in panic, to make sure that nothing globally threatens to stir up the pot. You can also kiss your freedom goodbye, and you will more-less be prepared to even sell your soul to avoid losing the home. And that, my friends, ain't no life, but a prison sentence! The current system is OBVIOUSLY rigged, so use the God-given brain, for heaven's sake!
So, let me calculate things for you for free.
1. both husband and wife work fat-paid jobs.
2. still, assume say 3 average salaries as an income. For Ontario, we're talking some 70k x 3 = 210k a year. This will be a bit of a strain if you both lose your jobs, and are forced to work for a couple of average salaries, and I personally would never go above 2 average salaries.
3. say, we're talking detached houses here (no maintenance fees). Still, put aside $200 a month, for various repairs.
4. let's assume that the tax is $200 a month.
5. let's assume you'll take $35k each from your RRSP, for the down payment. So, we're talking $70k down payment. You have 15 years to return this, but let's say you'll be able to fully repay this from your companies' annual bonuses, so all is cool. No additional monthly payments here.
6. let's assume that you'll put down less than 20% downpayment. So, add some $10k of the government mortgage insurance.
7. personal mortgage insurance plus property insurance say $200 monthly.
8. so, all these hidden monthly costs make: 200 + 200 + 200 = $600
9. 30% of the annual income (personally, I wouldn't go higher than 25%) is: 0.3 x 210,000 = $63,000. Divided by 12 months, we're talking $5,250.
10. subtract the hidden costs, so your monthly mortgage should not exceed: 5,250 - 600 = $4,650 a month.
11. alrighty, now, for a 6% interest rate, we're roughly talking about $670 a month for every $100,000 borrowed from the bank.
12. how much can you borrow from the bank? Glad you're asking. You can borrow: (4,650 / 670) x 100,000 = $694,000. Say $700,000.
13. subtract the government insurance of $10,000, and it means you can borrow $690,000. But, it's so close, so let's say that you can borrow $700,000.
14. and now, the final answer: what is the home price that you can afford? It is $700,000 + $70,000 (down payment) - $10,000 (government insurance) = $760,000. There ye go. THIS should be our high-end average home price in Toronto, and not 1.1 million or something like that.
This is still a bit risky stuff. If you're asking me, NEVER go above 2 average salaries when calculating the income (so, instead of $210k, start with $140k). And never go above 25% house cost / income ratio!
Great comment thanks
This is a good video. Thanks for your quality content.
Some people may hate me for this but I hope home prices continue to correct. Unless national average sale prices get below 2019 levels I don’t think we have anything to worry about.
You're not the only one. If anybody still actually cares about the next generation these prices need to come down.
@@Canadian_Eh_I I heard that the price for the median Oakville, ON home has come down $375k from the peak. This is crazy to me as the selling price for the house I bought in October 2023 was $375,500.
It was built in the 1950s but has been updated and well maintained.
I could likely earn 40-50% more doing a comparable job in the GTA or GVR but with housing prices averaging 200% more my quality of life wouldn't be higher. Sure they are "cooler" cities but, if I can't afford to enjoy them that benefit is null.
You are not alone. In order to restore affordability in Canada and prevent Canadians from leaving, prices need to come down quite a bit more. They are ridiculously high - garbage quality homes within a 200 km radius of the GTA sell for north of $1 million - not normal. Anything below that point is a tear-down or needs complete reno.
The fact that people are actually throwing this sort of money around when money is MORE EXPENSIVE than it was during the pandemic, when money was CHEAP, should be of concern to people. Money has increased in value with QT and yet prices do NOT want to come down substantially enough to restore affordability. Something is off with this picture and don't try pushing the inventory BS on me... 3 out of 5 houses sold within the past 5 months in my Toronto neighborhood are UNOCCUPIED - money laundering perhaps, or just a place to park cash in? I see the "new" owners drive over to these houses on the evening before garbage day, pull the garbage bins out onto the curb, and drive off again. No intent of living in the houses but just a very keen intent on making it "look" like they are occupied, with timers on their interior lights and the garbage bin scheme going. This seriously needs to end and our gov has created laws with so many loopholes they make Swiss cheese jealous. Too little too late and all just for show, with no substance.
To keep a ponzi scheme going you need to attract new investors like a first time home buyer loan. You also need to prevent older investors from withdrawing from they investment like adding a tax to the sale of a primary residence. Both of these things have been implemented from our governments. I think we need governments to work for its citizens again.
There are many idiots in Ontario....
Thank you for this. It’s reallly helpful. BTW, your sponsor joke was funny but u made it sound quite serious at first 😅
Glad you liked it!
Thank you john for the great information and tell him the truth😊
no problem
Thanks Jon!
Thanks for the super thanks!
I would highlight the fact home prices dropped in January vs going up. We all know that is a total trend change as home prices virtually NEVER go down from December. Ever.
Jon, thank you for the great videos! My daughter works for a builder in Calgary and as you can imagine, business is insanely brisk. Every once in a while, she wonders if she should buy a home and I keep telling her to wait and I send her your updates as soon as you post them. Of course, I will be the one to blame if the Calgary residential real estate market continues its absurd bull run, but the macro picture across Canada, not to mention the ongoing implosion of China's economy and banking system suggests we will all be in the same boat, not-so-merrily rowing down Shit Creek in the not so distant future. ;)
Calgary has been historically volatile and a boom bust real estate market. There's one thing you can count on in Calgary and it's a real estate crash.
The Alberta is calling PR campaign will come back to haunt them
@@jonflynn not this time, population way up and going to stay.
My dad gave me the same advice in '06.
Bought at end of 2010.
The time will happen. Hold on there. Regardless of immigration. People need income. Oil bust, there goes everything else.
Probable but it’s far out in future!
I've seen that realtor commission is under review. I've always thought those rates are to high. Especially in BC. We paid 21000 to our realtor in BC and only 3000 to one in Alberta. He did way more work for us than the BC one.
Thanks for the info
Because the BC one is an order taker 😅 they dont gotta work
Thanks Jon.
Investors should be incentivised to build new inventory, and prevented from hoarding existing inventory. Hoarding existing inventory just pushes up prices, as there's another intermediary who wants to take a cut.
With normal interest rates (5% is normal!), condo builders can't build affordable houses. That's the message.
Most people demanding high density housing expect others to live in it, not themselves.
We need to keep 5% interest rates, force unproductive businesses to improve, and allow more productive businesses to grow and deliver the affordable homes that people want to live in. If that means opening up new areas for building, and reducing taxes on builders, then all levels of government should tell us how that's going to work.
Investors should be incentivised to invest in other industries and not treat RE as part of their investment portfolio. Canadian business is dead, foreign investment in REAL business, industry, R&D and anything other than RE, is DEAD.
Simply put - Canada needs to stop allowing RE to be an attractive investment tool.
Absolutely 100%. Interest rates are NORMAL now, and should stay exactly where they are for a long time. The era of free money is over, so much damage has been done. The speculators and vultures are complaining as if prime rate was 20 percent. Furthermore, agree 100% with your other comment. Every single politician who is pushing for relaxed zoning in residential neighbourhoods, deserves to have a brand new 4-storey multiplex building on BOTH sides of their home. See how they like densification then.
100%
You probably won't like my reply but the solution is to simply blanket-ban any sort of for-profit "investment" in residential housing. Leave it to the not-for-profits (like co-ops and land trusts), and investors can go commercial or any other goods/services that aren't considered a human right, like housing. 'Building new inventory' is no guarantee that any of that new inventory will be any more affordable than what already exists, and there are no amount of incentives that will encourage most developers to build affordable housing. We already tried that. It doesn't work. One need only look to China's astonishing 'ghost cities' and an estimated vacancy-rate capable of housing up to 1.4 BILLION people to see that "increased supply" does not solve housing affordability problems. Greedys' are gonna greed. Rent-seeking must be abolished for this to ever get any better.
I should be able to commission a bilder to build a house for me. Right now builders ahve all the power. We need to be able to build at our pace and not at their pace.
Sweet sweet data, I just love seeing my area be slowly dragged back to reality.
Yep me too, which area are you in?
@@jonflynn Durham, and been here long enough to tell you the data doesn't surprise me. People were ready to sell their kids just to get in a house a couple of years ago.
Now I'm watching for-sale signs pop up like dandelions.
PLEASE include data from Montreal as well. It would be very valuable to see it in the context of the rest of Canada. Thank you.
This weeks video
Thanks for the video
No problem!
Can someone explain why 14:07 is not the drop everyone is "waiting" for? 20-30% seems like a crash to me. We are essentially hoping for 2 crashes back to back?
All that happened during covid should be null and void.
I’m not saying this will happen by any means, but reversion to the mean would pretty much mean a return to pre-pandemic house prices, then a 40% crash.
@@CarlosLiberatedalso need to account for change in M2 (inflation definition was conveniently changed from higher money supply to higher prices, aka the symptom of the original definition/cause).
ha ha ... you don't see "Sold Over Asking" signs anymore .... lol
good point
I'm seeing them here in Durham Region.
@@chadpescod-realtor3308 Yea if you price it 300k under and then get the market value or less its gonna be sold over "asking"
I just saw one today.
Well, compared to the last 5 or 10 years, when most houses were being significantly underpriced, and nearly every one was then sold for 10, 20 or even 30 percent over asking, as proudly announced on the SOLD sign.@@darincarswellrealtor1471
Hi Jon, thank you very much for sharing the data.
no problem, thanks for watching
It’s difficult to keep a level head, especially for someone who thinks/expects things to be sane in the world. Appreciate your insights and video Jon 👍
no problem thanks for watching
So much trust in real estate! I’m sure these people are the exception to an industry full of absolute ethical professionals.
TRESA
Buying and renting out SFHs is a bad business model and it's almost impossible to make money doing it. This is because a house is a non productive asset and the rent will likely not ever cover the ownership and carrying costs. Any company that does this as a business doesn't know their ass from a hole in the ground. An individual owner will just absorb the costs (the losses) but a business exists to make a profit so they will be in trouble.
They are betting on appreciation which has worked for the past 20 years. Hopefully it won't work anymore
@@m.b5777 That is gambling/speculating and it's no way to run a business.
The only upside of being a landlord is appreciation.
It's a good retirement savings plan if your in for 20 to 30 years.
But as far as rent collected against mortgage,taxes and upkeep, there is little or no profit along the way
Good point, and this Toronto company thinks they will buy these at a discount too. I doubt that will happen.
@@Stormshfter You're also assuming many of these landlords aren't doing cash business in illegal suites. That helps get to profit a lot faster.
More decline in prices coming up in Ontario and BC....
Thx John.
no problem thanks for watching
I am of the same mind as you, to build more apartment buildings to house renters and leave the single family homes for 1st time home buyers (not investors). Practically how to go about implementing this strategy when its so difficult to either find vacant land or so expensive and time consuming to buy a few single family homes, tear them down, change the zoning and build an apartment building in its place?
Well said
All the Brampton Indians and Punjabs targeted Calgary.
150k "immigrants/landlords" landed in under a year
I blame the liberal govt and all the greed that has
grown in canada!
Me too, they've failed us miserably
Thanks Jon
When you’re talking about biggest month-over-month price changes at 13:15, it can be a bit misleading unless you also show how much these regions had appreciated in 2023. It looks like most of the big movers are simply correcting to their normal price levels.
Jon the investigative journalist. Love it! Please consider politics one day.
I’m the first viewer today ! Always love to watch your content.
awesome thanks
The Soo's rental prices for their Airbnb's in town last year were double (2x!) those of the year before. Needless to say, we didn't go. I wonder if these properties being in limbo had anything to do with the sky high rental fees last year.
I remember driving through there 18 months ago and hotels were half the price of a basic AirBnB
I didn't hear about bidding wars from social media, I saw it on Bloomberg, lol
Haha, yep
Money Laundering?????
@@walterpen371 in Canada, money laundering, sir please!
Is there a casino around here?
@@walterpen371 Virtually none in Ontario but most of it is all out west in British Columbia. Markham and Richmond Hill drive the prices in the Golden Horseshoe.
I wonder many of these promissory notes have been funded by HELOC loans? Canada is going to learn leverage works both ways soon.
More like law abiding Canadians will learn what hyperinflation is when we print our way out of this mess
Many I bet
Sounds exactly like the real estate investment pitch that “Keyspire” was peddling and I think still is.
They're all a scam IMO
@@jonflynn The 2020s will be remembered as the decade of the scam. All the scummiest people in the world decided to wake up and take advantage of the pandemic
Calgary is scary
yep
It's bonkers here right now
lol Calgary is scary.. Our average cost is still 30% less than bedroom cities in Ontario. Calgary 1.7 million people economic centre of western Canada and is on the global city list and a major head quarter city . Anyone who has lived here their whole life as I have, has been waiting for this since 2014. We have an entire decade of catching up to do with nowhere to fall. Migration extremely high with no end in site. Economics 101. Supply and demand. Canada slept on Calgary but anyone who stuck with the city when it was beat down will do every well this next decade. I may be wrong because no ones knows the future but facts speak for themselves and people want to be here.
@@alexrubin5955 New home prices are skewing the average home prices a lot higher. The same would happen in the rest of Canada if they built new homes instead of new apartments.
Heck no. Vancouver is the economic centre of Western Canada. Easily more jobs in every field in Vancouver compared to Calgary. @@403mt
In Victoria, people are listing their houses at 20 to 30% above March 2022 peak prices and yet the statistics are saying that buyers are paying 16% below the March 2022 prices. The realtors out here are saying that there is a frenzy of sales, but I am not seeing it. Where can I get real data on the Victoria housing market as I feel that the data from the VRB is highly manipulated and is only backing up the narrative of realtors, higher prices forever. I really don't know where the money is coming from for people to buy 1M+ houses as it seems the Albertan's, Ontarian's and Vancouverites are not coming over as much and the local economy can't afford $1M+ houses as the average family income in Victoria is around $68,000 per year.
pretty sure it's mostly condos. houses are not down that much.
My data includes all residential properties and is taken from the victoria board. Most boards and regions like to only report the positive numbers though.
Money laundering from Chinese fentanyl.
Nice video Jon. This Global real estate crash has just started and real estate prices across North America will plunge down to their 2012 levels in this downturn. Looking forward to a video on your channel showing this reality when it occurs within the next few years!
Ummm lmao. Delusional.
Impossible. Whole economy would crash.
@@atothez418exactly lol. These bears have zero common sense and live in their fantasy world. Prices will be higher next year. And alas, John will never admit he’s wrong. Me and a few others will hold him accountable, however.
Everyone’s tapped. No extra cash. Liquidity low. But yeah prices will soar… and not sell. Keep up the smoke show. You guys must be realtors.
@@scottterry8406 to the moon!
So that last sales to listings ratio, I live in Durham and I am looking at prices in Wasaga Beach area, and that graph is spot on to what I am seeing, Wasaga Beach has some great buys rignt now, comparativley speaking , to what I can sell for in Durham. So just wanna say good job this man. You really are providing a great service by laying out the data as it is. No bs.
Thanks for the feedback
Thanks Jon, I recall some of your videos from about a year ago where you felt we would be headed back to pre-Coivid pricing. Do you still feel this is the case? I was somewhat thinking the same. I no longer feel this will happen. Further drops will be muted by high immigration and with sky-rocketing rents investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the numbers to make sense.
Hey, I still think we're headed there, Most likely early 2020 pricing which is also 2019 prices. Once we get there we will most likely sit there for years
@@jonflynninteresting, I enjoy all the analysis, data is a powerful thing. Im amazed you feel prices would drop that much. Keep up the great work, this is excellent marketing for you.
Jon, in one video you showed charts that show house prices drop following BoC rate cuts. This happened in multiple countries. In this video, Calgary is the anomoly: it goes up while everybody else is going down. Do you think Calgary is so different that it can defy all laws of housing market? Or will it one day comply because it is the law of nature?
I would ban SFH as an investment, you want to play landlord you need to purchase a multiplex.
Hi John, why wasn't the Ottawa data included this time?
Data wasn't released when I made the charts.
What about Halifax??
Wrong city no one will retire there. Sucker money.
haha, you're right, I'm moving to Cochrane Alberta soon. @@parkerbohnn
Excellent analysis, as always. Will you be covering Quebec and the Atlantic region in future videos?
Yes will have them in next weeks video
I just sold my home after buying in 2019. With the new interest rates my payment was about to jump $852 a month even if i reset to 30 years.
I am noticing near me (Northumberland), Most of the homes for sale were purchased 3 or 5 years ago.
I was able to come out with some good equity, so I'm hoping if prices fall further, I can get back into the market.
My data shows they will fall further
@@jonflynn I hope you are right!
Hi Jon, it would be nice to see the state of the 5 metrics of the economy again as to when it's a good time to buy in real estate. I sense and hear many are so eager to get back into the real estate market. its comes from experts, real estate CEO's which to me seems more like a sales pitch. Multiple offers, but the house is priced way below value in order to get a bidding war. overall, I sense many are being dishonest and trying to entice people to buy and get out of their own bad decisions.
I"ll have to watch the full video but shit are things selling around Barrie the last few weeks. Interesting.
Hello Jon, I watch you all the time. I really like the honesty, as well as the data. The one thing in this video you made a comment on Calgary, you did say beware of the buying at the top of the market. I would like to say I moved here to Calgary from Fonthill Ontario 2 years ago. We bought our 2-bedroom condo with heated underground parking for 174,000. Our condo fees are 415 per month that includes all utilities and property taxes of 1000 Dollars per year. It adds up to 500 per month all in. No where in Ontario could I get what I have here. (nowhere)Today at present a 2-bedroom condo exactly the same as our in our building sold for 265,000. Real estate is up for sure in Calgary, but well below what is in Ontario. There are still lots of condos for sale here for 200K and single-family homes you can buy for 500K with a garage. I see that Calgary is starting to equalize with Canada as a whole. You say watch when you buy in Calgary? not sure why? Where can a couple in Ontario buy a 2-bedroom condo, for 200k to 250k. Young working couples can get into the housing market here even at these prices of today. 3 years ago, Real estate was well below averages everywhere. Today prices are higher but still affordable compared to most big cities. Calgary how a lot to offer in Real-estate, work and everyday living. Alberta Inter provincial numbers are up. Why? everything. In my opinion Calgary real estate is still a good time to buy. As always time will tell, but still enjoy your honesty and your data. Cheers
I think the fear is if a whole bunch of people all of a sudden move to any city is where are the jobs for these people coming from.
also, our condo built in 2008, very updated, live behind a plaza with shoppers, Sobeys, plus walk in clinic, eye care, doctors, buses services at the front everything you need.
pretty hard to find that in most places in Ontario or BC for these prices plus a 5% sales tax versus 13%. NO sales tax on used cars, A great city for younger and older people to get ahead.
@@garyallan5795 Jon has absolutley no insight or knowledge of the Calgary market. He just reads the press releases and then tries to spin his fear narrative.
Thanks for the info. It seems like Calgary's market pricing is better aligned with many US cities which is classified as a bubble or run up in real estate prices. The problem is Ontario and BC are in super bubbles which make places like Calgary seem affordable. for a first time buyer to buy a place like yours with 10% down they would be paying $1900-2000/month, that's still $24,000/year just for housing. It seems cheap compared to Ontario but Ontario is so far past affordable and achievable it's hard to compare. Ontario should have Calgary pricing in reality which would make Calgary lower by comparison. Either way thanks for the detailed comment, much appreciated.
@@jonflynn I would also like to say a young couple making 22 dollars an hour would take home close to 5,300 hundred a month together. yes, there housing costs would be 1900 to 2000 per month, in a 225k condo, but that would be all bills in. The condo fees include all utilities heat and water, so, 500 fees and taxes plus 1500 per month mortgage. That would leave them approx. 3300 per month for the rest of their expense's. Sure, a condo is not for everyone, but it's a great chance for young people to own something vs rent and gets them into the market to move forward later to buy a town house or a house. Even at today prices with food, gas insurance and other things they could still save money with 3300 extra per month after the housing costs. You can't find that in too many big cities in Canada, and 22 dollars per hour jobs here in Calgary are easy to find.
Calgary is going to go down hard. As it has in the past.
Yep, very volatile market historically.
The West has always been about boom and bust. Nothing new here.
Ya but luckily not to my level.Just lucky timing and bought during the middle of the local recession in early 2016. It would have to crash harder as a %, than in the early 80's, to approach my buying price. Prices are ridiculous here though. I still think 2024 will be steady and then shit will hit the fan. Of course this will come with QE on both sides of the border. The Fed speakers with the most influence (Powell of course and Goolsbee) have led the narrative now to hold steady and we'll see about cuts. Before it was all hold steady and we'll raise if we have to.
Well believe it or not, there are deals with 100k below original prices downtown Toronto
Good stuff.
Great video - thank you. What do you think of all these mastermind networking real estate groups that charge a membership fee? Wealth genius, keyspire, cash flow tribe etc?
I think they're all businesses that are operating for profit. You may learn a thing or two but they're ultimately a waste of time and are similar to lead generating services. I've used a few over the years and regret it every time. The best experience and knowledge is organic which you acquire in your own personal day to day interactions.
in victoria, a house just listed in my hood for 1.35 million. same price other houses were selling for at the peak. i was surprised the open house was BOOMING. still seems to be on the market though... after a week. -16% seems off. that must include condos? i know there are a pile of those coming up for sale and that would make sense.
yes includes all residential sales.
We're about to hit Peak Oil and they're buying in Calgary. Wow!
Energy prices are teetering. Nat gas is cheap. If oil falls off, job losses happen and this will be very bad in Alberta.
@@mr2_miketrue, but peak oil is not synonymous with low prices. At $100 per barrel the oil sands become viable
@@PicklemediaYou're right. I'm not talking peak oil and to honest, peak oil has been a term in Canada since the 1970s.
"Running out of oil" is another one.
Low oil prices come and go. Very cyclical.
@@mr2_mike please check out Chris Martenson addressing Doomberg on Peak prosperity Re: peak oil
Prices are not coming down in the GTA John, who is crunching these numbers? Up at least 5% since lows in November/December
This is the raw data from the Toronto Real Estate Board.
Where do you get your stats? Some bullish realtor tiktok channel? This is from TRREB report released this morning: The MLS® Home Price Index Composite in January 2024 was down by less than one per cent year-over-year in
January. The average selling price was down by one per cent year-over-year to $1,026,703. On a month-over-month
seasonally adjusted basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price also trended lower.
@@jonflynn It just doesn't seem to be what's really happening on the ground, at least in C015
Prices are expected to rise from BOC as well in 2024. Rates will be slowly cut, we have pent up demand that is only growing and no supply. Many people can’t afford, but with more and more people and less building and supply, prices will rebound. John will eventually have to admit he’s wrong. Probably realize it later this year or in 2025. But based on his previous videos, he will ignore and still call of a crash. His loyal watchers think we will have 2012 prices. That tells you where their mindset is.
@@rosatipicks Not sure if Canadians can justify making home purchases at these rates and Powell is pretty firm that rates are staying higher for longer to undo all the QE and fiscal manipulation from the last 15 yrs. Also, Canadian unemployment data is out Friday and projections for March are not good, here and the US. Layoffs are happening and finding new jobs has become increasingly difficult across all industries. We are in a recession unfortunately , it is just a matter of time for sentiment to shift.
@jonflynn John amazing content! I have been watching your videos for some time. Love the home buying recipe, more FTHB need to listen to realtors like you!! If they exist 😅
Why not talk about fake mortgage documents?
Nice analysis John. I moved to New Brunswick in April of 2021. There were a few Provinces that missed out on the housing boom and New Brunswick was one of them. I moved here because it was 80% wilderness. I purchased a 5000 sq. ft. Cape Cod style house planted on 5 acres of land, the property taxes are less than $900 per year, and I have well water and septic. I paid $74,000. For Canadians looking for a great alternative the East Coast is a great place to go
Could you Ontarians just fuck right off?
Signed.
Atlantic Canada now a Colony of Ontario.
8% interest ! That should raise a red flag right there whenthe maximum offered by the banks are zround 5%.
JOHNNY LONG YAPPING LOVES JON FLYNN❤❤❤
Hey look it's Jon's burner acount. How cute and pathetic.
My number one viewer.
The vitriolic best bud trope in full effect 😂 Even Tyson and Holyfield found a way forward I believe you two can! They even went into business together🌳This could be the beginning of a beeeeautiful joint venture😅
I'm definitely out of the loop😂
You're lucky, as long as you own a home or have cheap rent
14:19 14:50 mark
Calgary here. Things are on fire but Calgary's average price is less than Toronto and Vancouver hence the influx of buyers. Alberta's job market can be a bit volatile depending on energy market. Something to watch.
Ontario should have Calgary prices and Calgary should be lower than Ontario. It will all crash and burn soon.
Long term Calgarians know where this is headed.
Sight unseen Ontario buyers is what I've been hearing. Solely based on #s and price.
But who wants to live in Calgary?
@@zhouyou28 Ask the drivers with BC and ON license plates. A lot of people are moving here from other provinces. That is why property prices are on fire.
@@zhouyou28Considering AB is seeing record numbers of people coming to AB that are ousting 40yr records.
This place will be a big wake-up call when they're not finished these promised jobs.
Reddit is full of people asking why they can't get a job interview anymore.
Calgary has a shortage of listings not a shortage of housing. Listings on rentfaster have doubled in the past year and we are now approaching a renters market again. Hmmmm? Where’s the headlines about the increasing vacancy rate here?
Guess they will have to sell
Thanks for the info, the same thing is happening in Toronto. Looks like Calgary has had over investment and speculation just like Ontario. I wish I had access to historical data to report on this.
oups Montréal or Québec is not there....
Google 🇫🇷
Who did that. Name names!
Their names are in the articles and I read them in the video
This is how people get exposed. Hopefully meaningful policies and awareness comes from this
I hope so too
Stay away from realtors they created this mess
Those loses are steep, wow, almost affordable again, almost…🏦
soon
Calgary? Isnt that where santa claus lives? 😂 You might as well buy in billings Montana 😅
Haha, all I know is it's below freezing by a lot
As my 19 year old son would say, that’s ass.
John may know prices will rebound and not crash. He might just want to continue talking doom and gloom to gain subscribers. And if so, kudos to him. But he’s gambling. And it looks like he is wrong as prices are tracking to be up 5% this year. Will he be accountable? Probably not. Will there be consequences? Maybe. But what those consequences will be, who knows. Fewer views maybe or just angry renters that continue to watch and pray that Jonnie is right.
I feel house prices are turned more affordable in Greater Toronto Area now !!
Look at Richmond Hill and prices follow Richmond Hill and Markham. Richmond Hill will lead the country in price gains this year. Not Calgary Richmond Hill.
not yet but have come down a bit
Again ... no Chatham Kent.
Next week
All those losses will be whipped out this year when Justin Trudeau brings in millions of South Asians to work 5-6 jobs at once. Also Toronto being a world class city when Justin Trudeau allows five families to live in one household.
I just heard in my office that Cambridge is experiencing multi offers, and sellers holding back on pre emotive offers.
Yep, they have a big supply issue, still not enough to bring them anywhere near peak and still down hundreds of thousands.
House prices will be going up in 2024 from Jan to Jun some 20% rise. I.e an astonishing 200K-300K hike for a single family house in GTA! There are enough buyers ready to jump into market for FOMO. Unfortunate but likely. I wonder if BOC will consider this as inflationary and hold rates or just leave it to Canadians to live/deal with it and start rate cuts!! Interesting times.
Bonds are already deciding for them. Check out the Canada 5 year bond rate.
The big rise will be in the second half of the year due to the presidential election in November in America. Big rate cuts coming due to the U.S. election.
Sounds like cryptocurrency lol
not far from the crypto king mess
Why don't you post your forecast vs the actual prices as a comparison to CREA? You were spot on in 2023 with prices going way down right? You even had one of your trademark charts to show where prices were going. And don't try your trademark I don't remember type comments. Maybe watching your video from December 2022 laughing at the forecast the Royal LePage made then might jog your memory.
I don't understand yapanese.
JOHNNY LONG YAPPING LOVES JON FLYNN ❤❤❤
fight. fight. fight!
@@jonflynn typical. Unwilling to answer simple and direct questions.
@@lcg3737 hey looks it's Jon's burner account. How pathetic @jonflynn that you need to have a burner account.
*promosm*