Rate cuts will end in disaster. Repeat of 2007 happening now.
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 ก.ย. 2024
- Jerome Powell and the Fed just cut interest rates about 0.50%, or 50 basis points. Historically, these rate cuts tending to be the sign of a weakening economy, with a recession occurring during 10 of the last 14 fed rate cut cycles.
The Fed decided to cut interest rates due to a weakening labor market, with a surging unemployment level and declining job openings giving Powell impetus to cut rates. Moreover - demand in the housing market is scraping at the lowest levels in 30 years. And thus far - has not improved due to lower mortgage rates.
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Do you want me to make the forward Housing Market demand index I'm developing at 11:23 public?
Could release it in a Google Sheet and update each week. Or do a free page on Reventure App tracking the figures.
Let me know in comments below.
Yes please!
Also, if you could review CT housing market forecast, will appreciate it!
Your polls are biased. The audience is not random.
Yes free page on reventure app please.
Follow the price of gold.. It is going up, and it has been at an historical high. That tells you when the economy is bad. U.S. dollar spot price for 1 ounce of gold is $2,587.12.
This election is going to cream us!
Low interest rates does nothing when houses and car are so expensive
Exactly together with property taxes and insurance.
And people
Have burned thru savings to live!! The gov is woefully out of touch with the people on every level
But we need to fund endless wars and support folks that enter the country illegally
Buy a Toyota Corolla and live in it.
It also does nothing to lower property and auto insurance, which is going to be the largest cost of owning in the near future.
Is the stock market getting better or this some election time manipulation to entice new investors with rate cuts? I mean, sure, they were supposed to help, but now I’m feeling the pinch everywhere. My savings account is basically giving me nothing, and the market’s all over the place
Overall, most still think this year would favor stocks, and other equity-based investments over cash-like investments. Don't put all your eggs in one basket; instead, diversify into different asset classes to mitigate risk. If you lack extensive knowledge, consult a CFA.
I've been through the 'bonds are beating stocks' periods since the 90s with no bonds and with all aggressive stock mutual funds.
At 66, my IRA and cash accounts are far more than I expected for my retirement. I can easily handle a worst-case 80% stock crash, Thanks to my CFA.
Mind if I look up your advisr please? I've worked in real estate for over 15 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio. This served me well when I was flipping and renting houses, however I need a different plan now
Sure you can! *Victoria Louisa Saylor* is the NY-based advisor I work with. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for the lead. I just searched Victoria by her full name and easily spotted her page, very professional..
People are in massive debt and have spent all savings. No amount of rate cuts is going to fix that. Prices need to drop off a cliff to get sales up.
Boomer here. No debt. No mortgage. Good pension linked to CPI. Life is good.
@@JPJYoung61 This boomer is riding the wave 0 debt. Good income stream.
No people need to get a pay jump and that’s exactly what these rate cuts are going to do as inflation rises again.
@@rdee7406 not me, and haven’t had a pay increase since 2018, I doubt I will get anything further till 2028.
@@JPJYoung61The debt I have is at Zero interest. My money works for me, so I am paying off as slowly as I possibly need to. I might pay it off early, because I can.
And today my company informed me that they’re doing layoffs tomorrow. Sad the gov is hiding the true data
Hope you get to keep your job. The government is clearly lying about the economy. My company laid of about 10% of the workforce with a net-50 profit margin! UFB.
Is it going to be bad?
The gov't may not necessarily be the reason your company is laying off. It may be how successfully your company competes, for example.
Sick of the mainstream narrative that rates lowering will get me to buy a houses. Nope. I got a down payment saved but not handing over that much cash to greedy assholes who want what was a mansion price for a starter home a couple years ago, sellers have gone insane. Rates are not the issue
Housing is a speculator Ponzi scheme
Smart man
0% fed rates WERE the issue that caused extreme borrowing and pumping up the economy with MORE DEBT. Until prices come down at least 25% nobody should buy a house.
True
And there is PLENTY of inventory! Plenty!
The 9% who said yes to buying homes are real estate agents 😂
Or completely crazy 🤪
I am a real estate investor, not an agent. I said yes
I'm an investor and also an economist I said yes. The newst and best data supports this.
We are looking now but only making aggressive offers. Not going to pay near asking.
🤣 They ONLY want a commission... People need to realize you can NEVER trust your own realtor either 💥
Honestly the most stunning statistic from this video is that 2007 was 17 years ago. I can’t believe it has been that long.
It is amazing how time flies. As you get older, you realize x years is just x consecutive one-year periods strung together. It gets easier to make sound long-term decisions, but the irony is by that point, you've already missed out on a lot of time!
It’s insane
I remember the value of my home dropped in half in 2007.
I know - it feels like yesterday and I remember it very well.
I was 17, 17 years ago
I’m waiting on home prices to drop, but nothing has changed in two years. Until home prices drop I can’t afford a home even at a 4% rate.
Same
This guy will keep you waiting. If you listened to him the last several years, you lost out.
@@SupremeMotorsUSA It's more likely the laws of economics prevented people from borrowing/buying. No TH-camr has the power to make sales fall to 30 year lows.
homes wont drop in value. they will go up when the rate cuts take effect
@@SupremeMotorsUSA 100% accurate. He has been calling a crash for 3 years, and everyone on here would have made 20-30% if they didn't wait until now... prices are not going down. There is no inventory
The name of the game is "Keep the little guy in the market" so that the big boys can get out before the bottom falls out in stocks and housing. Listen to Nick. You've been warned.
Yeah. Recession?
More like depression.
@@firestick4991time it like they do.
There is an equal market chance associated with each crash or collapse. I have seen people accumulate up to $1 million during a crisis, and even make it work in a strong economy if they are prepared and well-informed. Without a doubt, the bubble/collapse is making someone wealthy.
I completely agree. It's not just about the dividends or profits, Diversifying a portfolio can be a smart move and i always advise one gets a professional to help out.
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, Financial Consultants are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded massively in ROI, summing up to 7-figures as of today.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
My CFA Melissa Elise Robinson a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
no bs! curiously copied and pasted her name on the web, her site came up at once, she seems highly professional and well matched for the job.. thanks for putting this out
People are not Claiming unemployement because now we have UBER, DOORDASH, WALMART SPARK, AMAZON, ETC ETC ETC
And......trying to file for unemployment is an absolute nightmare....and on purpose in my opinion.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Survey
Despite what many people believe, the unemployment rate is not measured by calculating the number of people collecting unemployment insurance. In fact, the government comes up with this much-anticipated number each month by following a process that more closely resembles the U.S. Census.
@@jackshull1963 The unemployment rate is not measured by calculating the number of people collecting unemployment insurance. It has NOTHING to do with that. N!O!T!H!I!N!G!
Car repos are up, and car sales are down. Sounds like people have a debt issue.
How about the 80.4 million people unable to pay there credit cards.
@@rdanzi51 That's got to be an exaggeration. Just 3.25% of Americans' total outstanding credit card balances are currently at least 30 days delinquent..
Builders have been offering 3.9% - 4.75% rate for almost 2 years. It didn't help any. 5.8% is normal average but will not help!!!
@@jojopapa7521 I would jump on 3.9
@@FeelingPeculiar And youd be overpaying for any house unless its a foreclosure for well under 150$/SF
@@tabbott429 exactly, they'll give you 3.9% but overpaying by $100k
Wtf do you mean? They literally cant sell their new starts fast enough! Every single national production builder!
Correct. I've been saying the same thing as well. It's not necessarily an interest rate problem. Its a problem of overpricing because of high demand, which is causes by ultra low interest rates @tabbott429
Home prices are still overwhelmingly inflated.
They are going to continue to rise.
I’m sorry but they are not. Where I live demand way outweighs supply. If you are waiting around expecting a 20% drop or something like in 08, you’re never going to see it happen. The 08 collapse was driven by mortgage defaults given to people that couldn’t afford homes, there is nothing like that going on. Is
100k in a year or two. Ridiculous.
@@financecrypto7285one of the only people here who gets it. This is how fiat currency works, people. If you’ve been waiting for decreasing prices, you made a huge mistake.
Just like I said would happen on this channel for years I've said no crash and I was right. House prices will go up after rates come down it's back to bidding wars on porches. I told people no crash for years on this channel. Everyone said it will be worse than 2008 with 75% off sales. They were totally wrong, and I was completely right and will be.
The Fed knows the job losses are mounting. This is the reason why the housing market will crash. People don't have the money to continue making those payments.
Based on what? People you talk to? You can’t make statements like this without data
@@drexelspivey872 Based on reality! What world do you live in ? Do you NOT see all the job loses? Are you buying into the BS spewed by the con man Powell? For goodness sake WTF up everybody!
I sold my home 50,000 below appraisal, so now I am sitting around trying to buy a home cash, but I will not buy a dump on a few acres for 699,000. I bought a camper and I live in that at a long term campground for 500 per month. I can live in this camper for years if I have too, I just hope I don’t have to.
Best solution, why pay tax on a home when you can save for retirement and live in a camper. That's what I'd do.
@@financecrypto7285 For one, I moved out of 4159 square foot house and I am paying $500 per month to store my stuff in a climate controlled storage facility; I will be paying cash and in TN my property tax will be less than my rent and my storage fees. Two, I want to grow my own food and raise sheep, alpaca and goats for wool, fur products and have honey bees as an added income and I can’t do that without land. I had 12.5 acres and a year round creek on the property I sold, but the house was costing me a fortune and my kids are grown and my spouse passed away; being a vagabond just isn’t my type of life. That being said, I have several campground neighbors that have been here for years, and they are happy and thriving, it just isn’t my type of life. But thanks for the response. Have a blessed evening!
You got it bud. Run down used up homes that are inflated by at least 100k to 150k the past year. DISGUSTING.
Capitalism is nowhere in the Bill Of Rights. We were to have free enterprise with a debt free currency.
"The Federal Reserve System is not Federal; it has no reserves, and is not even a system at all. But rather an international criminal syndicate."- Eustace Mullins.
Started on Xmas Eve in 1913 while most .gov officials were not present to vote.
I wonder who these mysterious bankers are.
I lived thru the 2008 09 10 Housing and World financial crisis. We almost lost everything. It was horrible and I do not wish this on anyone. I do think we may be in for this to happen in 2025....Hopefully not as severe. Prayers and good wishes to all🙂
I made my millions thanks to 2008.
Well some made good money 💴
Unfortunately I think it will be a lot worse than 2008. The government didn't have €35 Trillion in debt, people didn't have this level of massive private debt in mortgages, credit cards, and car loans. And even worse, the world is de-dollarizing, meaning dollar is losing it's value all the time.
Banks are closing as people can't pay their loans. This time there is NO money to inject and save it all. If they print more money, it will just make it all worse, resulting in a massive inflation. As always, ignorant and greedy politicians and banks/corporations are causing another disaster and we are the usual victims.
@@faster6329 Spot on- This is going to make 2008 seem tame.
they'll just weaken the dollar further and everyone and their step-brother will be giddy about being 'millionaires', until they realize cars are a million and homes are $50 million...
GDP and consumption are strong ONLY because they include .gov spending and .gov employees which produce no actual Product at all.
Um, bureaucracy and long wait times ARE products.
Exactly and that government spending appears be close to hitting a brick wall. Maybe that's why in my state Colorado Governor Polis signed an E.O. removing the limits on how many people can live in a home and the mayor of one of the solid middle-class suburbs (Arvada) recently arranged for a bankrupt college's 44K sq ft building to be bought and renovated to service homeless people and most of the residents in the community are shocked in strong opposition.
@@yolopistolo194 LOL
@@phreedomphile nimbys got us into this mess and nimbys will do their best to keep us in this mess.
You say this until planes start falling out of the sky, satellites stop working, interstates stop getting repaired….i could go on and on. The entitlement in this comment section is amazing
I really wouldn't focus on whether we are in a recession or a depression or what have you. The entire world has been in the shithouse years ago. And things ain't gonna improve in a long time. Boeing employees taking a 25% cut on their salaries, car manufacturers closing, fast-food chains disappearing. People that have 3 meals a day should feel very thankful.
💯
If the economy is doing so great why do the .50% 2 months before a huge election?
If i see another 2008 in my lifetime...
Fed is propping up the economy so there is a fair election, whoever wins though, will have a market crash right after.
Check out the unrealized losses from the banks. It is worse than in 2008.
If inflation is under control why not cutting?
As an old man, I can say the the Fed always drop rates right before the election. The stock market loves to hear Powell lowering rates. The Democrats will take credit for the rising market.
They dropped rates because unemployment was rising more than they wanted and inflation was falling. They said this over and over during the press conference. It’s not a big conspiracy - it’s a balancing act.
Panic cutting with assets and prices at all times high and jobless claims down. What could possibly go wrong?
Well said!
Panic cutting is not happening. Real estate is holding steady
@@FeelingPeculiar if by steady you mean completely flat then sure... For now
@FeelingPeculiar that was point in the comment
So what are really the best strategies to make our portfolio recession proof. my wife is already panicking, so many questions! will the rate cut next month lead to inflation? I'm very worried about my $1million stock portfolio losing value. It lost 20 % today alone
Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money during a crisis in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions.
Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
@@Stefan-d3c I could really use the expertise of this advsors
Sharon Crump Cline is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her site up and filled the form. I hope she gets back to me soon.
With housing demand at historic lows, lower mortgage rates haven't sparked recovery. A cautious approach to rate cuts is needed to avoid fueling inflation.
I'm not buying the idea that lower rates will make housing affordable. I've saved up, but sellers are asking ridiculous prices for basic homes. The issue isn't interest rates; it's outrageous pricing. Sellers are being unrealistic with their prices!
I agree with you. That's why I'm focusing on diversifying my portfolio instead. With housing prices this inflated, I'd rather invest in other assets that offer value and potential for growth beyond overpriced real estate. You may want to consider diversifying as well. Consult with a financial advisor if you lack the knowledge, to ensure informed decisions
That’s right! Working with a fiduciary, not just an advisor, is crucial for informed decisions. Personally, my diversified portfolio has yielded significant growth: $800K in stocks (tech, pharma, consumer goods) and $450K in alternatives (private equity, precious metals, cryptocurrencies).
Incredible. Could you recommend who you work with?
Monica Mary Strigle is my fiduciary and is NY-based. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Sit back and enjoy the DEFLATION 😈😈
Builder have been given 5% but sales are still dissimal
Sure deflation in SOME areas but inflation is food certainly and many other areas of essential items. Enjoy the deflation in musical instruments, boats, motorcycles, classic cars antiques, and lots of other things, that is, if you have money to buy on theswe non essential items.
A deflation recession at this point would crush 95% of people.
That's the last thing we need. I understand your thinking on that you think prices will go down and everything will go back to normal, but that's not how it will work, at all.
@@FeelingPeculiara deflationary recession is obviously better than a hyperinflationary collapse.
I know you've got a bot username - but seriously, if you were a carbon based lifeform what colour is the sky on your world?
Professor Steve Hanke is projecting deflation also. I think he is onto something. He hit inflation numbers on target
The market is echoing the 2015-16 scenario, poised to reach new heights, but may experience a sideways trend until fed signals rate cut. I recently sold 25% of my portfolio, comprising struggling stocks recommended by certain financial TH-camrs, which unfortunately took a significant hit.
Not their fault, the stock market seems to be more of a casino for gamblers now than a place for investors. even if you were averaging down on ailing companies, its your duty to properly research, buying the dip does not guarantee a rebound
I don't make invstmnt decisions based on rumors.I have my day-to-day investing decisions being guided by an invt-advsor, seeing that their skillset is built around long and short term, both employing profit-oriented strategies and providing hedge against inevitable downtrends, coupled with exclusive analysis, it's near-impossible to not outperform. I've realized ovr $750k from $235k capital, since late 2019 just before the pandemic to date.
Awesome.. Please I would love to know or get in touch with your invstmnt advsor. I could really use such expertise in growing my prtfolio now that the entire markets is uncertain
There are many advisors to choose from. But I work with Monica Mary Strigle and we've been working together for years and she's fantastic. You could check her if she meets your requirements. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with
i appreciate this share .I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her; hopefully, she gets back to me. her certifications and credentials are impressive
Rates go up you say DISASTER rates go down, DISASTER everything is a disaster🙄.
He is a permabear. Never happy and the sky is falling.
Yep. And he’s right both ways.
Interest rate is useless in Las Vegas. Prices are so high, even if the 30-year rate was 4% it wouldn't make a significant difference. The monthly payment is more influenced by the price when houses are 600k-800k for a nice home.
I agree with that. We don’t any inventory here (Vegas) so I’m waiting until this winter or next to buy a home.
Serious question: why does anyone buy a house in / near Las Vegas? Nevada is out of water. There’s only so many call girls that can work the hotels. There are no industries besides entertainment in Vegas - that I know of. What am I missing?
@@RetiKingKnightthe only thing making it desirable was no income tax and cheap houses. The cheap houses thing is over … so, no need for California’s to go there other than no income tax.
I'll sell you a house at 0%. The house is 3 Trillion dollars.
You read my mind! exactly what I was thinking!, prices aren’t going down 😞 I’m already thinking about starting business as a second job 🙏🏼 to be able to afford it!
Why can’t government limit how many existing houses the big investors can buy? That one thing will make homes affordable again.
These countries have limits in place to limit investors:
New Zealand
Canada-not doing so great though
Denmark
Switzerland
Australia
UK
Singapore
Hong Kong
Surely the USA can do better for affordability of a basic necessity.
Because the government doesn’t want you to own a home.
The best solution is to incentivize investors to move from housing speculation to producing company investment.
For that we need an economy that manufactures goods. To spur manufacturing growth we need lower energy costs and less govt Overregulation.
Because we're a country that values free markets, including price discovery?
Because government policies are what caused this hot mess?
Because artificial manipulation such as price controls end in disaster?
Blackrock and their ilk are exploiting stupid public policy decisions. I don't admire them but it's the government that creates these massive dislocations.
Don't hate the player, hate the game.
@Redfires10 Canada's limit is only on foreign investors. On the Friday afternoon immediately following tabling the legislation an amendment was quietly released in the hope no one would notice which punches so many loopholes, the limit is essentially null. Opposition MPs, many of whom are real estate speculators said nothing.
Hence, why it doesn't work. As you pointed out.
And the rise in property tax will gobble up any interest savings....
Exactly!
property taxes and rising home owner insurance (if you can get it) will take any/all interest savings.
@@brucebarr6542 Great point on the insurance.
this is bad, something is coming, this will be worse than 2008
Prepare for a crash up, rather than a 2008 scenario.
@@FeelingPeculiarI’ll take that bet
Ok doomer
@@FeelingPeculiarwhat’s a crash up?
Hope so
My take home pay has gone down. My son graduated with coding degree and can’t get a job every few weeks I dip into savings. When I stress my lips go numb . Recently that started up again.
IT is in a terrible state right now with all the massive layoffs that have been happening. 8-12 month job searches are extremely common now to find work in IT
My son did a tech vocational program to get his certifications, took two years to get a job in his field. I can relate to dipping into savings. It is stressful; hope your son finds something soon.
I'd suggest having those lips checked out.
I've been selling off unwanted stuff and stockpiling cash the last 2 years for this. I can't wait to buy cheap real estate like I did 08-14.
That's when I bought my property as well
I wish it would but I highly doubt anything is going to crash. The market is manipulated with precision and a housing crash is not going to benefit the elite.
good luck waiting lol
@druzhinacoccoc853 nah, by this time next year, the foreclosures will have been piling up for some time. I plan on buying another 8 like I did sixteen years ago.
I bought later in 2014. Got a house at 3.25%.
What a disaster. Rates are too low. They don't take in inflation. Their true, adjusted, rate is below inflation.
The inflation rate in real estate is NOT the same as the inflation rate in food, etc.
Wrong. Inflation is done. Unfortunately it destroyed the middle classclass.
Now the worry is a deflationary recession.
@@FeelingPeculiarthis is very true. It’s time for the people to band together or we’re all done for
@@FeelingPeculiar Nope, I wish it were so. The 'IRA' has TRILLIONS of corporate (Green) subsidies ALREADY in the pipeline. The required funds will be PRINTED into being. Taxes don't exist to cover that tab. Kamala Harris cast THE deciding vote to pass that act. She owns it.
@@FeelingPeculiar Depends on whether the plan outlined by BIS and the IMF to transition away from the USD reserve and towards the IMF's SDR basket instead manifests as the US deficit signals a long-term untenable system. Interest alone being a trillion per year and climbing.
Just for perspective, In the early 80s, 1981 - 1985 ., There was horrible inflation. I was quite young at the time , but I was studying Finance and we had 18 % interest rates. That was the Interest rate to bring down inflation. This is not going work out well. Soft Landing is a new term that has rarely happened.
80 - 81 - 82 All over again.
1930s all over again I think.
Soft Landing is the new normal. brace yourself.,
350k to 500k for home over 50 years old is like marrying a woman with 3 kids that aren't yours and being financially and emotionally responsible for baggage, willingly.
hahahaha i thought i was the only one who thought like that
Terrible. Yet, a man could be in the same position and he's still a "catch", right?
Did they print 40% or all money ever created in 2 years back in 2007? Incomparable
I came across your channel through this video-
case studies are incredibly valuable, and I'm eager
to see more in the future! Building wealth involves
establishing routines, like consistently setting aside
funds at regular intervals for smart investments.
You're correct. I think the smartest way to go is
to spread out your investments. By putting
your money into different asset classes like
bonds, real estate, and stocks from other
countries, you can lower the risk if one part of
the market goes bad.
That sounds like a good plan. In the past two
years, working closely with a financial market
specialist, I've builta six-figure diversified
stock portfolio. Now, I aim to diversify even
more this year.
Talking about a financial market specialist, do
you consider anyone worthy of
recommendations? I have about 10Ok to test
the waters now that large cap stocks are at a
discount
I operate a wide- range of Investments
with help from My Financial Adviser. My advice
is to get a professional who will help you, plan
and enhance your management skills. For the
record, working with Martha Ann Hammerton,
has been an amazing experience.
Funny enough! I started my investment
with $7,500, a week later, we had
grown to $38,645.
This woman! absolute genius
I'm 54 and my wife and I are VERY worried about our future, gas and food prices rising daily. We have had our savings dwindle with the cost of living into the stratosphere, and we are finding it impossible to replace them. We can get by, but can't seem to get ahead. My condolences to anyone retiring in this crisis, 30 years nonstop just for a crooked system to take all you worked for.
I feel your pain mate, as a fellow retiree, I'd suggest you look into passive index fund investing and learn some more. For me, I had my share of ups and downs when I first started looking for a consistent passive income so I hired an expert advisor for aid, and following her advice, I poured $30k in value stocks and digital assets, Up to 200k so far and pretty sure I'm ready for whatever comes.
If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you...prevent inflation
In the 80's my Dad worked a modest job, Mom stayed at home and raised the kids, and they lived a nice middle class lifestyle including owning a home. Nowadays both I and my partner works and can barely afford to make ends meet. Soon the kids and family dog will need to work to keep this household going. It's the destruction of the American dream right before our eyes.
Tracy Britt Cool Consulting was my hope during the 'bear summer' last year. I made so many mistakes but also learned so much from it, and of course from Tracy.
How can I reach her?
It is home prices, not the rate, that is the problem. You nailed it. But new home prices are (in part) based on building materials costs, which are crazy high as well.
At the beginning of a credit cycle, low rates are rocket fuel. Here, at the end of the cycle, they are pushing a boulder uphill with a wet noodle.
All they do now is give the ultra-rich billions that they just gamble on the stock market.
We need broad-based, massive asset price write-downs to reset the cycle.
So Harris might tax unrealized capital gains? But she says that will only apply for rich people. I've never seen any politician actually go after rich people.
This is because if they do, the economy will tank. Democrats love using that to rally voters behind them and they don’t see that democrats are the rich. Look at Biden, Obama, Pelosi, and check their net worth before and after they get into office. People will buy anything you sell them.
And soon, all of will be paying unrealized cap gains.
Yup. They lie lie lie. It always bleeds down to us
Define the word rich.
Taxing unrealized gains will 100% crash the market
Mark my words. Housing prices will come down only when unemployment rates go up significantly.
Yes, the talking heads in Real Estate were saying the same stuff, word-for-word, that was said in 2008.
Nick you are absolutely wrong. It's nothing like 2007. Our debt levels in 2007 were not nearly as bad as they are now.
It's a house of cards..
So in 2007, we had 4 million homes for sale. With 50 million more residents and 1.4 million homes for sale today, your predictions are suspect.
Prices would drop for autos in a recession, but banks will not loan most consumers money to purchase.
Its wild that we constantly have to force businesses to do the right thing when the government is the one that allows them to operate in the first place. Unfortunately, not all of us were financially literate early. I was 35 when I finally educated myself and started taking steps. I went from $176,000 in debt with zero savings or retirement to now, 2 years later, fully debt-free and over $1000,000 net worth. I know that doesn't SOUND like a lot, but I'm incredibly proud of it. Now I'm fast-tracking my wealth building (investing $400,000 annually) and don't owe a dime to anyone. It's a good feeling!
Wow you give me hope
Am 49..am From Las Vegas…
Please how's that possible, I'm curious
Please how do i go about it, am still a newbie on investment trading and how can I make profit?
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Sonia
its not the rate, its the price
🎯🎯
Regardless of the price, the rate is still important.
Phenomenal video, Nick. Thank you. Was saying all these points with a few like-minded investors today at the barber shop. Got all of them to follow you. Cheers from Lauderdale.
Even if I could get a 0 percent loan I wouldn't buy at these prices!
Well that would be silly wouldn't it
@@eoinob They do not know how much intrest you will pay on your home in a 30 year span lol.
@@jakeschneider2113 All you need to figure that out is an on-line calculator.
I personally don't think these rate cuts are gonna help anything but that's just my opinion....
Most people are broke! No savings, high debt, this won’t end well
with Housing prices being so high and out of reach for so long, many have adapted and learned owning an overpriced house is not needed, you can take your money retire much earlier overseas instead of working till your elderly years
Anyone else remember 2011-2013 when they couldn't give away homes because they were all overpriced and people were freaked out? Yes, we have different demographics now that support real estate more, but I think people discount the mental and emotional impacts of recessions. Who wants to buy a house, especially at these price levels, when they think they may lose their job?
Don’t worry the Dems will keep flying in immigrants and giving them phones and grocery money and houses. That will keep prices propped up - at your expense due to your devalued currency.
TITLE: Rate cuts will end in disaster. Repeat of 2007 happening now.
"im not saying this ill be a repeat of 2008"
"i dont want to be overly bearish on the economy"
House prices need to drop significantly before I will buy.
The money supply is the biggest bubble this time. Look at the explosion of M1 from 2020 and 2021. This is correcting now but will take time. This is what is slowing the economy.
When people get laid off and are paid severance they are not considered unemployed
You can claim unemployment the day you get severance in Texas. So as soon as they make a claim they will be counted. The jobless numbers are a lagging indicator anyway. Its the hiring rate we should watch, and according to challenger and Christmas that is the lowest its been in 20 years.
The unemployment rate is not determined based on how many people receive unemployment benefits.
It all comes down to the bottom dollar. If they want to sell they need to look at median income. Drop those prices. End the gluttony of greed. End cash out refinance loans. Treat others the way you would want to be treated.
I completely agree home prices have skyrocketed. I'm Cambridge MA (an area I know you are familiar with) I commented a few years ago on one of your video on how I wanted to transition from my condo to a single family. I had gotten priced out with the average SFH being about $950k. I told myself I will grit it out and then the goal post moved to 1.75M. I was completely discourage, looked into careers that would sustain that amount of house. Today the same home is btwn $3M - $5M. I have absolutely given up at this point.
Unfortunately, in Massachusetts property holds its value. It may go down a little, but I don’t know how Massachusetts does it. Maybe this time will be different because wages have been stagnant for everyone for so long, but I have a feeling Massachusetts will always be the exception??? Good luck.
I live in Wakefield Massachusetts and every house around mine increased in price 30-50% in the last 4 years!
@@shirleysaidsew1969 in the Phoenix area, houses have more than tripled from the 2011 prices. It’s complete insanity.
I left Massachusetts after 50+ years & moved to rural NH. Single family house w/ land for $185K. Saving a bundle over renting in Brookline.
Reventure is the biggest troll on youtube. Bro has been telling you the sky is falling for the past 4 years and prices haven't crashed. Nobody wants a condo in Florida they want single family homes
Your clueless😂
@@bdek68 Yup im clueless, Reventure has been spiting the same "data" since people were wearing face diapers and prices still havent crashed like he said. But he still bought properties to rent out and add to his portfolio, clickbait made him rich
I don't think he realizes what has been happening the last 4 years...sure ppl bought houses.but they would of been better off renting these last 4 years cuz they will be holding the bag. Me I sold my house and did fine @@bdek68
I think we have a very large percentage of likely home buyers who are really pissed off about the housing inflation AND really pissed off that people were able to buy homes at record low mortgage rates at pre pandemic prices. I'm really pissed off that I was unable to buy at that moment. Personally Im not planning on buying till I can either buy in cash or until list prices drop dramatically. I cant justify buying a home that was 800 4 years ago and is now 1.2m just because the rates come down from 7 to 5%.
*This administration has no idea how people are suffering, things are getting so much harder we can't take it no more. A lot of people are financially struggling to put food on the table and a roof over their head, I appreciate your advice Elinda McKee. Imagine I invested $2,000 and got $10,600.*
I just withdrew my prof|ts a week ago, it was so shocking when I withdrew 22,OOO knowing | started with 7OOO, I wish I could re-|nvest with Ms Elinda McKee forever.😇
It's truly heart- warming reading a lot of testimonials on Ms Elinda McKee. Her personality, ethics, principles and prowess as a Financial Adviser has gained her fame and recognition around the globe.
Biggest lesson of 2023 in the stock market Nobody knows what is going to happen next, all we need is the right advice on how to invest in crypt0 and we will be set for life.
Same here though l started with as Low as $1,000 actually because it was my first time and it was successful she's a great personality in the state
Please, how do I connect with Elinda McKee? I would appreciate it if you show me how to go about it.
Hit 250k today. Appreciate you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 24k in April 2024..
I would really love to know how much work you did put in to get to this stage
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear that you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small Investment, thank you Alesia Haas you're such a life saver
As a beginner in this, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
Alesia Haas is also my trade analyst, shehas guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
Same, I operate a wide- range of Investments with help from My Financial Adviser. My advice is to get a professional who will help you, plan and enhance your management skills. For the record, working with Alesia Haas, has been an amazing experience.
I'm favoured, $30K every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America,, all thanks to the same Alesia Haas.
That should drive the prices of those $1/4M trailers to $1/2M.
Can’t see this rally lasting beyond this week.. all of this was expected and priced in. A bunch of stuff that hasn’t and won’t happen has already been priced in…it’s getting ridiculous
most of the Gurus were absolutely wrong, including this guy who projected that during the pendamic, the housing will crash. Instead, the price increased 40%. Shameless people deceiving the public.
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in last month 2024
Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
Sincerely speaking. I will continue to trade and stick to expert K aren daily signals and guides as long as it works well for me.
Woah for real? I'm so excited. Karen elliot strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
She is my family' personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.
This guy gets it, I am not going to buy a home that is sky-high in price only to lose money when I try to sell it at the same crazy price.
In the market I am watching I am still seeing houses bought for 875,000 in 2023 asking 1075000!
Devil's advocate for your survey: people that you asked are much more educated on this subject then the general public.
Mortgage rates will be 10% before they are 4%. Its the 10 year treasury that matters
The FED follows the 2 year treasury yield. And everyone thinks they are so smart!
💯
Worse than 2008. Foreclosures happened then because of affordability when interest rates recast. End of the day people couldn't afford loans. Compare that to the prices today and the affordability today. Way more people going to be foreclosing with the layoffs already starting.
Good news, my home will be worth more but I won’t be able to sell it. That’s, winning 🥇
Mine is worth more too… only in my mind. Nobody else seems to agree.
😂 nailed it
@@cranberryeater7459 it's worth more to the government assessor too, just not to any potential buyer
Drop the price
@@the_derpler I’d end up paying more with the interest rates for less house. Doesn’t math with me.
You mean to tell me that the rate at which banks borrow reserves overnight from each other was lowered by 0.50% and rates for borowing to buy an overpriced lumber liability in 30 years didnt move at all? Outrage!!!
Home buyer don't know anything they are the average joe who drink a beer or more every after noon and watch sport. They never talk economy. The only thing they know is the banker won't let them the cash to buy a home.
There was excessive greed back in the early 2,000's but it doesn't come close to the enormously excessive greed that currently exists. Mortgage applications down...blame taxes not being adjusted to reflect overvalued properties, blame the insurance rates in Florida for homeowners, condo owners and auto insurance along with a terrible government in general in Florida starting from the top down. There is a myriad of reasons why Florida in particular, is in big trouble. Put it altogether there and you have a recipe for disaster. I do not feel sorry for the corporate investors at this point. They are pretty much getting what they deserve. It's the average homeowner who I feel sorry for.
The party is coming to an end! Buckle up people!
This past weekend I was in St. Petersburg Fl for a family wedding. My 26 year old niece has been selling real estate , primarily in South Tampa , for the past 2 years. She said last year she and her realtor partner sold $20 million and this year they are at just $10 million. She has a number of listings right now but low interest from buyers-she thinks the mortgage rates are the biggest problem so she was hoping rates would drop soon. I said, what about the inflation the past 3 years in terms of making housing prices so unaffordable? She shook her head and said, it’s not the prices so much as the mortgage rates. I didn’t bother trying to convincer her that incomes have not kept up with the high prices of houses so it IS a factor causing low historical sales data.
I really learn a lot from your channel Nick, keep up the great data-centered content!
My friend just bought a house this week here in AZ. Brand new construction. And they got a 4.8% rate.
Hell yeah!
Why own a home?
Giving section 8 next door
High prices
High taxes
Changed zoning
High insurance
Maintenance
People have spent all their money, but they have credit! 🎉
Credit has a painful association to people's monthly card bills. So it's been rebranded as "financial innovation" said with jazzy-hands and some tap dance.
@@petertayler1712 😂
Bought my home for 630k @ 6.3% interest rate.l last year. Rates do not matter to me, once rate hits 4% I will refinance. As a re broker, prices are just too high for most people. I don’t see the rate cut does anything for majority of the people out there.
You have got to have the most gulliable, hopeless group of subscribers in history. For 4 years you have predicted a housing crash, and it hasn't happened. All the while your fans keep imagining everyone will lose their jobs and they can pick up a home at short sale for 50% off. Homeowners have gained equity, along with you, who has bought several properties to rent out.
Most commenters want “price cuts!” and state they “won’t buy!” until “greedy” homeowners cut their prices.
Imagine you somehow got your finances together and were able to buy a home. If you had to sell the home would you capitulate to some poor slob to cut! your price because allegedly “you’re greedy!”? No , you wouldn’t.
Price is a result of supply and demand (or willingness to pay). If there’s low supply of a product or service along with people willing or to pay, price normally rises.
One main reason home prices skyrocketed is because the US Government printing trillion$ of dollars out of thin air (money not based on productivity). This makes the dollar worth less, so it takes more. dollars to buy everything. That’s Econ 101.
Very well said. 👍
That's all fine and dandy but for supply/demand to work you have to have a means of exchange so if the consumer has no money then they will not be able to buy...
Very informative..
Thanks for all your hard work.
A lot of people are being called back to the office "RTO" is huge and its affecting all sectors, and its to shed personnel without firing them, oh and lots of companies are on hiring freezes
Unemployment rising consistently without initial claims growth is already recession material: companies have stopped hiring. You don’t need layoffs for a recession, just an inability to find a job when you’re inevitably out of one.
But everything is still sooooo expensive....houses, cars, etc....
Poland mortgage rate 8.9 - 10% and you're talking about bad economy. You don't know how bad economy looks like yet. USA is the richest country in the world. Sum this up.
The momentum to run and buy a home is lost. People had a chance to stop and think for themselves. Hopefully saner minds prevail and we don’t borrow to the hilt just because fed/market made a move.
Rate cuts won't increase real estate sales because the massive increase in the cost of property insurance and taxes will keep monthly payments out of reach.
We need the PRICES to drop 20-30%
Sellers are stubbornly holding out for high prices.
We bought our house in 1997 with cash. Why would I now sell to buy another house that would cost more?
Home prices have raced so high that no amount of rate cuts will make home purchases within the budgets of most consumers especially with insurance and real estate taxes being high as well. Rates have been held artificially low for the purpose of keeping the banks afloat. Banks lend money from the fed and then charge you some outrageous rate on your credit card. Big win for them and you are screwed.
The privately owned Federal Reserve works for the Banks - not the consumer.
all it change so far for me is robinhood paying 4.5 instead of 5% so not good
Our family is fortunate... we have NO DEBT. But, because we live within our means & are SAVERS, we will be punished again by the privately owned so-called Federal Reserve dropping interest rates. They want you to invest in the risky, way over priced, stock market. Everything now costs more because the fiat Dollar has lost so much value. What a crooked system we live in.
If you are a saver more then a spender you get screwed. My bank already cut interest earned on my HYSA. Regarding home purchases/rental cost; the government needs to limit investment firms ability to buy up all the affordable housing.
Yep happened to me too, didn't even take them 24 hours to lower mine
In Canada specifically, rate cuts during recession times typically resulted in further housing slumps. The difference between now and ~5 years ago is that people are generally poorer, more leveraged and more uncertain as to the future. They either experienced or saw indirectly the effects of borrowing too much when rates are low. I bet we see stagnation and further slumping in the real estate market. Will we see a major crash? I doubt it.
I know you know this, you’re an intelligent guy, but there will not be a steep reduction in prices unless unemployment gets out of control, which currently there is no indication of that happening. Yes unemployment has risen, and the sahm rule was triggered, but Claudia sahm herself said this time is different. Also there is far too much equity for current homeowners to go into foreclosure in the event the labor market does deteriorate and unemployment increases dramatically. Unfortunately what I see for the housing market is a decade of stagnation. A decade of home prices rising very minimally, keeping would be homebuyers on the sideline until wages catch up to prices. Then finally after a decade of a horrendous housing market, prices, wages, and interest rates will finally align again. Current homeowners will have so much equity, causing “move up” buyers to finally come out of the woodwork, forfeit their 2% interest rate for a 4.5% rate for a bigger better house without having to increase their payments. Also in 10 years the youngest baby boomers will have reached their 70’s, current life expectancy is 79 in the USA. Baby boomers currently own 38% of all homes nationwide. So in my opinion, if there will be a housing market crash, this will be when it takes place. Once the boomers are, (sadly) passing away or moving to retirement homes. During the following decade call it 2035-2045 there will be a dramatic increase in inventory due to boomers leaving the home market, which will in turn cause over supply and inevitably price reductions. But what the hell do I know, I’m just a random guy in the TH-cam comment section 🤷🏻♂️
Well Mr. Random Guy in the comment section. Your analogy actually makes more sense realistically than many of the “experts” that make videos like this.
The people that aren’t able to afford a house now or have a minimum amount of money for a down payment. Who are saying they’re waiting for home prices to drop to a level they can afford or are willing to pay. Will be waiting many years to own a home as you have suggested, or they will never own a home at all.
@@kevinc8811 I agree Kevin, and I think the developers do as well, that is why the build to rent communities are popping up all over the place in the sunbelt
Hmm well assuming your analysis is correct... and assuming that banks have turned homes into financial instruments and any drop in value will explode our over leveraged world economy... then the best proof for your theory would be that the US government will need to source tens of millions of new citizens and then dump low interest loans on them via special programs to help them snap up those homes from the boomers bypassing the robbed millenial generation.
I will be watching for the signs, wake me up when shadowy "aid" organizations start marching armies of new americans across our borders to prop up our failed economic system.
Learn to EDIT!
Rate cut won’t matter if you’re unemployed.
I’m a factory worker and we’re running out of work.