If you say there is going to be a crash every year you are going to be right 1/10 times on average. The market cycle will have a crash every ten years.
Chillingly scary watching this in July 2021 on how accurate he has been back in 2018. Calling almost to the point a 60% rise in the next 3 years where we are currently sitting today.
Yes I just finished doing the same. Also notice in this interview he seems slightly frustrated whereas the interviews today he is supremely calm since he is so confident of what is happening
At 9:30 ish, Mr. Grantham states that the January 2018 market had six all-time highs, six days in a row, and that was a strong sign of acceleration. Then he says that the whole thing might be over six weeks from now and that the market might be down 17%, and all bets would be off. That was certainly a prescient statement, as the market, so far, has had about a 7.5% adjustment, in early February. Impressive!!
To save you time, he is basically saying when S&P 3400-3800, he will be selling most of his Equity holdings. So this market has 50% more room to run. Will he be right? Only history will tell, but he has more credibility than 95% of the investment population due his past track record.
Up 60% for s and p? Was this honestly uploaded in January 2018? He's the ONLY person saying this. He may be right though, but doubt it. 2839.25 is the S and P 500 on 26/1/18. Can you honestly see a 60% increase?
At 15 mins he seems to contradict what he's saying. He states the US equity is expensive and you won't make much over 20 years. But emerging markets are cheap. Make your mind up. Either you think the S and P is going up 50-60% or not? I hate people who cover they're self, so, whatever happens, he's right.
@@theccft Not at all. The market crashes every 10 years, he's saying to plan for a crash around 2018, since 2018 the SP 100 is up 100%, if you followed his advice and became cautions in 2018 you would have missed out.
If we have a melt up followed by a bust the ensuing bear market will be pretty bad - especially if inflation starts accelerating. Bonds won’t be safe either. At least the patient investor will hopefully have the opportunity to buy some equities cheaply. Bonds and cash face a very depressing future given the likelyhood of fiscal dominance / financial repression on the monetary policy front. Investors face a potentially hostile environment of rising inflation and higher marginal tax rates (after a left wing populist wins the presidency).
I am rotating and trying to hide in Emerging Markets (VWO,IEMG,EEM) and Commodities (DBC,WOOD,PICK,MOO). Could use more ideas for commodities but don't want to use "futures" or "ETNs"
This guy is totally seeing the future now that we reached 2020.
No he hasnt
If you say there is going to be a crash every year you are going to be right 1/10 times on average. The market cycle will have a crash every ten years.
He is still on point august 2022
Chillingly scary watching this in July 2021 on how accurate he has been back in 2018. Calling almost to the point a 60% rise in the next 3 years where we are currently sitting today.
Yes I just finished doing the same. Also notice in this interview he seems slightly frustrated whereas the interviews today he is supremely calm since he is so confident of what is happening
Guy is a genius, really sad he is on his 80's. 99.9 % are wrong.
shoeshine boys from today are vlogs on youtube.
At 9:30 ish, Mr. Grantham states that the January 2018 market had six all-time highs, six days in a row, and that was a strong sign of acceleration. Then he says that the whole thing might be over six weeks from now and that the market might be down 17%, and all bets would be off. That was certainly a prescient statement, as the market, so far, has had about a 7.5% adjustment, in early February. Impressive!!
Thank you Mr Grantham…from 1/2022. Your insight was very helpful and Prepared my family
You do a great job, Consuelo
will interest rate rises not hit most em's hard as they have loaded up on dollar debt?
crazy!!! 17:25..........its up 40% today! this guy is on the money!!
this is my favorite show...
To save you time, he is basically saying when S&P 3400-3800, he will be selling most of his Equity holdings. So this market has 50% more room to run. Will he be right? Only history will tell, but he has more credibility than 95% of the investment population due his past track record.
Correction: He will sell his small hedge of high-momentum stocks if S&P gets to 3400-3800
Impressive, so far he's right a year later.
Unlikely it going that high.
@@greigsanderson9673 we're almost there
@Mark Caffray bubble is almost over 😉
May, 2021 now...
This guy is brilliant
Thanks Consuelo! (and Jeremy!)
You're welcome!
Up 60% for s and p? Was this honestly uploaded in January 2018? He's the ONLY person saying this. He may be right though, but doubt it. 2839.25 is the S and P 500 on 26/1/18. Can you honestly see a 60% increase?
At 15 mins he seems to contradict what he's saying. He states the US equity is expensive and you won't make much over 20 years. But emerging markets are cheap. Make your mind up. Either you think the S and P is going up 50-60% or not? I hate people who cover they're self, so, whatever happens, he's right.
@@greigsanderson9673 S&P 500 as of 05/02/2021 is 3,871
He was right
@@theccft Not at all. The market crashes every 10 years, he's saying to plan for a crash around 2018, since 2018 the SP 100 is up 100%, if you followed his advice and became cautions in 2018 you would have missed out.
@@op1nd3nurm and now it's at 5,995
If we have a melt up followed by a bust the ensuing bear market will be pretty bad - especially if inflation starts accelerating. Bonds won’t be safe either. At least the patient investor will hopefully have the opportunity to buy some equities cheaply. Bonds and cash face a very depressing future given the likelyhood of fiscal dominance / financial repression on the monetary policy front. Investors face a potentially hostile environment of rising inflation and higher marginal tax rates (after a left wing populist wins the presidency).
It took a couple of years and a virus, but he was right. I like him so much as a guest. Thank you.
Now the final rally began what he talked about, a huge run up before the final crash
3 years later and all the ETF EM have not done better than the USA.
The third phase a bull market is the blow-off period. -Richard Russell
If the blow off is going to be in 2021 or 2022 then he’s going to be right again.
Bubble = Solid fundamentals extrapolated exuberantly!
Journal your investments so that you can get out ...
This video came out on 26thJan- EXACT day the market Topped.
No it didn't
Good guide for 2020
This guy has called 6 of the last 3 bear markets?
only God can call 3 of the last 3 bear markets.
First time I heard of this show ...quite good.I remember the 1990's meltup..should a sold man..
melt up ! bull run !! 60 percent increase then drops
Spooky spooky.
He is absolutely correct (2/23/2022)
I am rotating and trying to hide in Emerging Markets (VWO,IEMG,EEM) and Commodities (DBC,WOOD,PICK,MOO). Could use more ideas for commodities but don't want to use "futures" or "ETNs"
Amis Amis guess didnt go well for you in the last 7 months.
LOL 'we've been lucky enough to have seen two bubbles' ....
Jeremy Grantham
Every year this guy has his same sales pitch.
Here come the IPO's.
A lot of bad calls. He's wrong often
When has he be wrong in a big way? Give evidence, or what your saying is bs.
Greiguci Wootchie Timing is everything sir. No bs lol
2022 he is right
BUMP check. 1 year later.
Emerging markets funds have been down 20% since this video was uploaded.
Investor in the destruction of the planet.