Cy young has the all time record for games started, complete games, and wins. It feels like if you are naming an award after him it’s meant to be an award for starters anyway
I disagree with saves being like wins, saves can only occur in high leverage situations so Gagne for example succeeded 55 times in a high leverage situation without fail, that’s pretty damn impressive
I personally love the closer role. Just seems cool to come out of the pen cause the team needs to you to shut down the opposing offense and secure the win for the time and time again. Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffmen, Francisco Rodriguez, Rollie Fingers, Aroldis Chapman, etc. Just straight baller to close out games time after time and then walk off the field like its the norm.
The cy-young award isn’t really for relievers tho. Hence in 2014 MLB started the Reliever of the Year award. In the NL it’s the Trevor Hoffman Award and in the AL it’s the Mariano Rivera Award. Essentially it’s the Cy-Young award but for relievers.
@@derpy.1 It was the “Delivery man of the year” from ‘05-‘13 before becoming what it is today but yes there were other variations of the same award going back. If I remember correctly it was changed to try and bring a little more attention to the award. Obviously it’s always been overshadowed by MVP, Cy-young etc.
I appreciate WAR, but I hate it when MVP or CY is considered like the Most Highest WAR Award. Having an unhittable closer like Clase means like giving the opponent only 8 innings to score, and that means so much more than the WAR tells you. Besides, Clase's 2024 numbers are not like usual closer numbers... giving up 4 runs in the the 60 most meaningful innings of the game, and ERA+ of 697 is unbelievable. He's 3 times better than usual Mariano Rivera season.
@@METALBUG999 I feel sorry for you, because you'll miss all the historical accomplishments he will likely achieve for years to come, and his beautiful pitches.
Closers are the most ice-cold human beings to ever play any sport. Starters are consistent workhorses, however closers are the showstoppers! I don't know about you, but I prefer to watch the one man come in at the 8th or the 9th and see all hopes wash away from the faces of the losing team. For whom the bell tolls!
As of August 29th, Clase is t-4th in bwar amongst AL pitchers. Fedde(2nd in bwar) has regressed in his couple of starts so far for ST(5.3+ FIP) and Anderson(3rd in bwar)’s FIP is more than a full point higher than his current era. Obviously, Skubal looks like a beast rn and is by far the favorite to win the award. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Clase finished top 3 in Al cy young voting if he can keep this up. 0.58 era is crazy no matter if you’re a closer middle reliever or starter.
I can still see a closer winning a Cy Young award. With starters throwing fewer innings and getting injured more often you can get a season with no standout pitcher and someone having a season like Clase could win it. If it wasn't for Skubal there is no other pitcher having a season that is much better than anyone else. Fedde was traded. Anderson and Crochet are on bottom tier teams. Crochet last nine starts have been four innings or less. Lugo, Ragans, Houck Blanco. I can see a black swan event where a closer gets a lot of second and third place votes, and everyone else splits up the first where it could happen.
There is an overlook on the bwar value for closer. A closer is supposed to pitch for 1 inning most of the time, and just on a few occasions, they pitch 2. Whilst starting pitchers are expected to pitch at least 6. Therefore, in a season with 162 games, a closer with 80 innings pitched, basically was active 50% of the time. And the bwar should tale that into consideration. Starting pitchers get an average of 30 starts per season. So they only influence 20% (more or less) in a 5 man rotation. That should also be considered into account. A pitcher with 20 wins is considered to have had an amazing winning season... even of that's only 20 out of 100+ wins a team can have. Now, regarding closer (and EG case), the most impressive wasn't the 55 saves, but the fact he went 55 out of 55 in saves opportunities. He basically never failed to do his job.. and in the same season, there was no starter picher with 0 loses (assuming starting in the minimum games to meet the criteria).. if you get my point. Keep in mind that 55 saves is not even the record for a season, which is held by krod from the Angels (record breaking season and he wasn't even in the discussion for cy young). So Gagne cy young is not only for the 54 saves but also how did the other pitchers in NL do
I believe the closer needs a monster season like 70 plus saves and doesn’t blown a save opportunity adding some type of crazy K rate and pray that season no pitchers and hitters having a good season then boom a closer wins a MVP.
70 saves is virtually impossible because 70 l opportunities is virtually impossible. A save situation is maybe like a 60-70% occurrence when leading, so a team would have to win like at least 120 and the closer would have to not blow any saves
Only way I see Clase really getting traction is in the playoffs. If this dude does something crazy like striking out Soto, Judge and Stanton back to back to back, I see the hype building.
Over 650 ERA + is INSANE. It seems video game ish actually. Regardless, barring a mega implosion it will be remembered as one of the all time great seasons for a reliever.
Clase would have a decent chance if it wasn't for Skubal. The third-best pitcher in the American League is a closer. Heck, Cleveland has the 3rd, 4th AND 5th best pitchers in the entire American League (Clase, Bybee, Bieber)! If they have a year where multiple hitters have career years at the same time, Cleveland could win 110.
I've seen a couple of your videos, you seem like a bright guy who likes to learn. Be careful citing bWAR. Baseball reference has an extremely rudimentary war model, compared to Fangraphs. ( Especially for pitchers ) A model that doesn't incorporate FIP is going to have weird outlier results like Mike Minor.
it depends on what you think is more valuable in a pitcher; bWAR uses RA/9 instead of FIP, which accounts for unearned runs that the pitcher had very little control over
relievers face a few batters every appearance and get to usually avoid the best hitters as a result. Yet your supposed to think highly of these low stamina low exposed guys. At least old relievers used to do two innings, instead of their two to three batters. They've become quite the joke.
WAR isn't the end all be all like you say in this vid, for example hunter Greene of the cincinnati Reds is leads the NL in WAR but won't win the award, Chris Sale will, Innings, ERA, ERA+, and WAR all play factors but 1 stat shouldn't determine a whole award
I never intended to push that WAR is the "end all be all." I just used it to evaluate the past winners and try to predict this years. It isn't perfect, but the top three pitchers in bWAR in the NL right now are Greene, Sale, and Wheeler, and they are also the top three in odds to win the Cy Young. WAR is not the end all be all by any means, but gives us a good general idea of how the award will pan out.
Why should a relief pitcher who knows hes unhittable for one inning, who just pitches that one inning for a save, get the award? Starting pitching is more difficult thats why. Unless your the first guy out of the bullpen, no closer or relief pitcher should ever be considered lmao They pitch little innings HOW IS THIS EVEN A QUESTION 😂😂
I think that it would only make sense if none of the starting pitchers in a given year are very impressive And as a Cleveland fan, Clase can be an absolute lock in the 9th, but it's often meaningless when our starting rotation is so terrible that he doesn't get a chance to come in. I would gladly trade Clase for like a number 2 starter in a heartbeat because that's where the most value is. A solid starter would be so much more useful to Cleveland right now.
Using WAR as a reliever assessment before going into rate stats is a bit off. One of the flaws of WAR calculations is that relievers are skewed, so an absolutely dominant reliever will generally receive less WAR per inning pitched than a hypothetical starter with the exact same rate stats. It makes some sense because relievers naturally pitch fewer innings and thus can put more strain on their body, so it adjusts to average performance, but it means absolutely dominant relief pitching is fundamentally valued less on a rate basis than good starting pitching.
Enjoyed the video, but whenever anyone makes the argument that it's not Clase's fault that he doesn't have the volume to beat someone like Skubal and that's just the reality, I also counter with the opposite. It's not Skubal's fault that his 'greater' contributions aren't contributing to more team success like Clase, but that's just the reality.
Without clase his team would not be nearly as successful as they are. You could easily argue Clase has provided more wins to his team than any other pitcher
TL;DW: Because a Supra has less than a third the range of a Prius, the extra miles the Prius goes make it more deserving of being called the best Toyota over the Supra.
if you're talking major leaguers I don't believe getting hitters out in the 9th inning is substantially more difficult than getting batters out in the first inning. Relievers are valued about where they should be. An elite one can be very important but not as good as having an elite starter. It's a correction because as you said closers used to be really over-valued especially saves
Closers are super important but are you trying to act brain dead intentionally?? 🤦♂️ CLOSERS pitch for 1-2 innings at best. That’s it. They’re literally NOT the “ACE” of the team, so obviously they can’t win CY Young. If some Closer had the capability to be a STARTER, then sure. Things would change. But Closers can’t pitch more than 2-3 innings, and that’s literally their LIMIT.
He’s taking about a topic that’s been going on in the baseball community. It’s not brain dead for him to talk about it. He said it’s not realistic to think Clase to win.
@@dariusswanson9898but its braindead to even CONSIDER thinking closers should win the cy young when they pitch a fraction of the innings starters do 😂 they are electric for one inning and thats it, thats the objective of having a closer How does the “baseball community” even consider having a low IQ thought as that
Cy young has the all time record for games started, complete games, and wins. It feels like if you are naming an award after him it’s meant to be an award for starters anyway
Cy young has the all time record for games started, complete games, and wins. It feels like if you are naming an award after him it’s meant to be an award for starters anyway
The biggest takeaway from this video is that Roger Clemens should have 8 Cy Young awards
Tbf, he shouldnt have won in 2001. It should have been Mussina but Clemens had a nicer w/l record.
@@wavedash101 Back to 7
Clemens = PEDs....WTFU
No he should have none after 1995
His PED supplier should have at least 2 Cy Youngs.
I disagree with saves being like wins, saves can only occur in high leverage situations so Gagne for example succeeded 55 times in a high leverage situation without fail, that’s pretty damn impressive
I personally love the closer role. Just seems cool to come out of the pen cause the team needs to you to shut down the opposing offense and secure the win for the time and time again. Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffmen, Francisco Rodriguez, Rollie Fingers, Aroldis Chapman, etc. Just straight baller to close out games time after time and then walk off the field like its the norm.
The cy-young award isn’t really for relievers tho. Hence in 2014 MLB started the Reliever of the Year award.
In the NL it’s the Trevor Hoffman Award and in the AL it’s the Mariano Rivera Award. Essentially it’s the Cy-Young award but for relievers.
it was originally called Rolaid's Fireman of the year
@@tubemoozful interesting I didn’t know that!
He said that in the video
The Relief Man of The Year has been given out every year since 1976
@@derpy.1 It was the “Delivery man of the year” from ‘05-‘13 before becoming what it is today but yes there were other variations of the same award going back.
If I remember correctly it was changed to try and bring a little more attention to the award. Obviously it’s always been overshadowed by MVP, Cy-young etc.
You always make videos on questions I never knew I had 😂
I appreciate WAR, but I hate it when MVP or CY is considered like the Most Highest WAR Award. Having an unhittable closer like Clase means like giving the opponent only 8 innings to score, and that means so much more than the WAR tells you. Besides, Clase's 2024 numbers are not like usual closer numbers... giving up 4 runs in the the 60 most meaningful innings of the game, and ERA+ of 697 is unbelievable. He's 3 times better than usual Mariano Rivera season.
he was suspended for using ped's before. zero respect for cheaters.
@@METALBUG999 I feel sorry for you, because you'll miss all the historical accomplishments he will likely achieve for years to come, and his beautiful pitches.
Closers are the most ice-cold human beings to ever play any sport. Starters are consistent workhorses, however closers are the showstoppers! I don't know about you, but I prefer to watch the one man come in at the 8th or the 9th and see all hopes wash away from the faces of the losing team. For whom the bell tolls!
As of August 29th, Clase is t-4th in bwar amongst AL pitchers.
Fedde(2nd in bwar) has regressed in his couple of starts so far for ST(5.3+ FIP) and Anderson(3rd in bwar)’s FIP is more than a full point higher than his current era.
Obviously, Skubal looks like a beast rn and is by far the favorite to win the award. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Clase finished top 3 in Al cy young voting if he can keep this up. 0.58 era is crazy no matter if you’re a closer middle reliever or starter.
U deserve way more subscribers than you have given the content u give & the length & views of each video💯
Love from Taipei. Cool summary. I love your sound of "funnel phenomenon", hope the saber metric community picks this up!
I can still see a closer winning a Cy Young award. With starters throwing fewer innings and getting injured more often you can get a season with no standout pitcher and someone having a season like Clase could win it. If it wasn't for Skubal there is no other pitcher having a season that is much better than anyone else. Fedde was traded. Anderson and Crochet are on bottom tier teams. Crochet last nine starts have been four innings or less. Lugo, Ragans, Houck Blanco. I can see a black swan event where a closer gets a lot of second and third place votes, and everyone else splits up the first where it could happen.
Not happening idgaf how many less innings the starters pitch they will always pitch more innings than closers
Because baseball needs a reliever exclusive award
Great breakdown! I liked the charts
Thank you! Really appreciate it
There is an overlook on the bwar value for closer. A closer is supposed to pitch for 1 inning most of the time, and just on a few occasions, they pitch 2. Whilst starting pitchers are expected to pitch at least 6.
Therefore, in a season with 162 games, a closer with 80 innings pitched, basically was active 50% of the time. And the bwar should tale that into consideration.
Starting pitchers get an average of 30 starts per season. So they only influence 20% (more or less) in a 5 man rotation. That should also be considered into account. A pitcher with 20 wins is considered to have had an amazing winning season... even of that's only 20 out of 100+ wins a team can have.
Now, regarding closer (and EG case), the most impressive wasn't the 55 saves, but the fact he went 55 out of 55 in saves opportunities. He basically never failed to do his job.. and in the same season, there was no starter picher with 0 loses (assuming starting in the minimum games to meet the criteria).. if you get my point. Keep in mind that 55 saves is not even the record for a season, which is held by krod from the Angels (record breaking season and he wasn't even in the discussion for cy young). So Gagne cy young is not only for the 54 saves but also how did the other pitchers in NL do
Yes, Starters deserve more respect. A SP with 3.00 era having 162+ IP is better than a RP with 1.00 era having 50- IP .
I believe the closer needs a monster season like 70 plus saves and doesn’t blown a save opportunity adding some type of crazy K rate and pray that season no pitchers and hitters having a good season then boom a closer wins a MVP.
70 saves is virtually impossible because 70 l opportunities is virtually impossible. A save situation is maybe like a 60-70% occurrence when leading, so a team would have to win like at least 120 and the closer would have to not blow any saves
@@zachflakerton The odds are not good in general for closer to win it anyway that’s why something rare would help.
Clase is having one.. 0.61 ERA... Saves is a stat of opportunity.
Clase has given up fewer earned runs all year than Skubal did in his last start against the Royals
Great vid dude
Subbed.
A closer winning the CY would be like the best hitter by a mile getting a season ending injury 40% through and still winning MVP
it’s like when a minority of people were arguing for acuna mvp in 21 even as a braves fan i thought that was dumb
“Why closers can’t win the Cy Young Award.”
I think 1979 Bruce Sutter would like a word with you.
shouldn't* win the cy young award
err Eric Gagne?
Willie Hernandez 1984 Cy Young and MVP,but the guy was 9-4 with 34 saves with over 100 innings.
Several closers have won the Cy Young. Bruce Sutter, Willie Hernandez, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, and Eric Gagne come to mind.
I always believed this, but a few during my younger days have won it, including Sutter, Eckersley, and later on, Gagne.
Only way I see Clase really getting traction is in the playoffs. If this dude does something crazy like striking out Soto, Judge and Stanton back to back to back, I see the hype building.
Idk man, you said the gap between the top and replacement level is smaller, then you told me this guys ERA+ is over 650
Over 650 ERA + is INSANE. It seems video game ish actually. Regardless, barring a mega implosion it will be remembered as one of the all time great seasons for a reliever.
I think gagne did deserve to win the cy young in 2003. 55/55 save opportunities with a 1.20 era is crazy
Clase would have a decent chance if it wasn't for Skubal.
The third-best pitcher in the American League is a closer.
Heck, Cleveland has the 3rd, 4th AND 5th best pitchers in the entire American League (Clase, Bybee, Bieber)!
If they have a year where multiple hitters have career years at the same time, Cleveland could win 110.
WAR, huh, good god y'all. What is it good for?
I've seen a couple of your videos, you seem like a bright guy who likes to learn.
Be careful citing bWAR. Baseball reference has an extremely rudimentary war model, compared to Fangraphs. ( Especially for pitchers ) A model that doesn't incorporate FIP is going to have weird outlier results like Mike Minor.
I think the only reliever that should have won the cy young was Zack Britton in 2016
K Rod for 2008?
I think his era is to high
In my opinion fwar is the worst way to look at a pitcher. Bwar is fine
it depends on what you think is more valuable in a pitcher; bWAR uses RA/9 instead of FIP, which accounts for unearned runs that the pitcher had very little control over
@@fiercedeitylink2019 FIP is not actually a stat to see how well a pitcher pitched though.
well, to be honest EMMANUEL CLASE JUST GOT CY YOUNG AWARD
11:00 This is not a new award or a "recent effort".
relievers face a few batters every appearance and get to usually avoid the best hitters as a result. Yet your supposed to think highly of these low stamina low exposed guys. At least old relievers used to do two innings, instead of their two to three batters. They've become quite the joke.
Theres a lot of relievers who won cy young awards
WAR isn't the end all be all like you say in this vid, for example hunter Greene of the cincinnati Reds is leads the NL in WAR but won't win the award, Chris Sale will, Innings, ERA, ERA+, and WAR all play factors but 1 stat shouldn't determine a whole award
I never intended to push that WAR is the "end all be all." I just used it to evaluate the past winners and try to predict this years. It isn't perfect, but the top three pitchers in bWAR in the NL right now are Greene, Sale, and Wheeler, and they are also the top three in odds to win the Cy Young.
WAR is not the end all be all by any means, but gives us a good general idea of how the award will pan out.
they don't pitch that much innings
Why should a relief pitcher who knows hes unhittable for one inning, who just pitches that one inning for a save, get the award? Starting pitching is more difficult thats why. Unless your the first guy out of the bullpen, no closer or relief pitcher should ever be considered lmao
They pitch little innings HOW IS THIS EVEN A QUESTION 😂😂
Good vid
Put simply you need to of had pitched 162 innings during a season relievers and closers never get that many innings pitched
A closers CY Then?
You shouldn’t include 2020 in your graph
I think that it would only make sense if none of the starting pitchers in a given year are very impressive
And as a Cleveland fan, Clase can be an absolute lock in the 9th, but it's often meaningless when our starting rotation is so terrible that he doesn't get a chance to come in. I would gladly trade Clase for like a number 2 starter in a heartbeat because that's where the most value is. A solid starter would be so much more useful to Cleveland right now.
Using WAR as a reliever assessment before going into rate stats is a bit off. One of the flaws of WAR calculations is that relievers are skewed, so an absolutely dominant reliever will generally receive less WAR per inning pitched than a hypothetical starter with the exact same rate stats. It makes some sense because relievers naturally pitch fewer innings and thus can put more strain on their body, so it adjusts to average performance, but it means absolutely dominant relief pitching is fundamentally valued less on a rate basis than good starting pitching.
Enjoyed the video, but whenever anyone makes the argument that it's not Clase's fault that he doesn't have the volume to beat someone like Skubal and that's just the reality, I also counter with the opposite. It's not Skubal's fault that his 'greater' contributions aren't contributing to more team success like Clase, but that's just the reality.
In addition Clase couldn’t throw 100 plus for more than an inning or so….let alone 6 or 7 innings like an ace starting pitcher needs to do.
Without clase his team would not be nearly as successful as they are. You could easily argue Clase has provided more wins to his team than any other pitcher
@@clarkmetz1763As a Guardians fan, I couldn't agree more
Asked to pitch 2 innings their arms would fall off. Max effort all the time. Somebody has to pitch the other 8 innings. That ain’t all that valuable.
This is a brain dead take
and shouldn't
TL;DW: Because a Supra has less than a third the range of a Prius, the extra miles the Prius goes make it more deserving of being called the best Toyota over the Supra.
if you're talking major leaguers I don't believe getting hitters out in the 9th inning is substantially more difficult than getting batters out in the first inning. Relievers are valued about where they should be. An elite one can be very important but not as good as having an elite starter. It's a correction because as you said closers used to be really over-valued especially saves
clase should be tested again before playoffs. i would never vote for a cheater. closers don't pitch enough to win the cy young.
Closers are super important but are you trying to act brain dead intentionally?? 🤦♂️ CLOSERS pitch for 1-2 innings at best. That’s it. They’re literally NOT the “ACE” of the team, so obviously they can’t win CY Young. If some Closer had the capability to be a STARTER, then sure. Things would change. But Closers can’t pitch more than 2-3 innings, and that’s literally their LIMIT.
The difference between a starter and closer is a closer is a pussy and can’t throw for more then 30 pitches
There isn’t a limit
He’s taking about a topic that’s been going on in the baseball community. It’s not brain dead for him to talk about it. He said it’s not realistic to think Clase to win.
@@dariusswanson9898but its braindead to even CONSIDER thinking closers should win the cy young when they pitch a fraction of the innings starters do 😂 they are electric for one inning and thats it, thats the objective of having a closer
How does the “baseball community” even consider having a low IQ thought as that
Relief pitcher in MLB are a lot like backup goalies in the NHL or punters in the NFL. You don't need a good one until you don't have a good one.
Cy young has the all time record for games started, complete games, and wins. It feels like if you are naming an award after him it’s meant to be an award for starters anyway