UK update, 30th November
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 ก.ย. 2024
- REACT-1 round 7 interim report: fall in prevalence of swab-positivity in England during national lockdown
www.imperial.a...
www.bbc.co.uk/...
Second wave in England
High prevalence in the North with lower prevalence in the South
First in younger adults then school-aged children and older adults
Local tiered interventions were in place up to 5th November
REACT-1
A repeated cross-sectional survey of swab-positivity
Random samples over England
13th - 24th November 2020
Results
Swab tests, 105,123
Positives, 821
Raw prevalence = 0.78%
Weighted prevalence = 0.96%
Down from 1.23 at the start of November
Giving an R of 0.88
Halving time of 37 days
Now down to R = 0.71
Driven mainly by reductions in prevalence in northern regions
Prevalence approximately unchanged in the Midlands and London
Conclusion
Overall, ~30% reduction in prevalence
Inter-regional heterogeneity has reduced
Average absolute prevalence remains high at ~1%
Certain groups had a higher chance of testing positive
Asian ethnicity
Most deprived neighbourhoods
Largest households
It estimated that
Roughly 96 people in every 10,000 had coronavirus, down from 132 per 10,000 just before lockdown
There were about 72,000 new infections a day, compared with 100,000 at the end of October
Tracker app (King’s)
covid.joinzoe....
Cases, + 23,363
Official data
coronavirus.da...
Prof Paul Elliott (Imperial)
encouraging signs
These trends suggest that the tiered approach helped to curb infections in and that lockdown has added to this effect
As we approach a challenging time of year, it's even more vital that through our actions and behaviours we all play our part in helping to keep the virus at bay
It's really important in the run-up to Christmas that we keep the virus under control
I really hope that Dr Campbell is made a “Sir”....such a wealth of knowledge to us all and always considering other less fortunate folks around our planet, he is simply our guardian angel and he has and will save countless lives.....truly humbling watching these past ten months...thank you kind sir.
Yes!
Making your books available free of charge as pdf's confirms my opinion of you as an honest, decent person who cares deeply about your fellow human beings. As well of course as being an outstanding unbiased source of information. Much respect John.
Thank you Dr. Campbell for your fabulous work daily! You are appreciated by so many over the world. If it wasn't for you so many of us would be so confused.
True Erica the voice of reason stay safe
I fear Dr C is now adding to the confusion and hysteria. Even he is now having trouble reconciling the data because our mass testing using the PCR test is causing more problems than its solving.
@@bootburner4544 go away now
Respect to you John offering medical education to the world .
Disinformation
Exactly. Dr John has his own agenda that he continually pushes onto his obedient followers
@@Mikey374 true
@@Mikey374 care to provide your sources?
@@sophiepoyser4731 Well he clearly calls upon his medical background on these daily updates so we get the official messages here. Sometimes you’ve got to think out of the box and look beyond just positive test cases
Hi John,
The variance from the REACT study to the ONS and ZOE can mostly be explained by their estimates of daily infections from prevalance.
"The national prevalence estimate
of 0.96% translates to ~720,000 infections in England on any one day, with the assumption
that sensitivity to detect the virus when present is around 75% [8]. We can also estimate the
incidence of infection, assuming an average period of shedding of virus, which we have
taken to be ~10 days. With this assumption, estimated incidence in England is around 72,000
(58,000 to 78,000) infections per day (where the 95% confidence intervals are based on
those for the weighted national prevalence estimate). This estimate is down from around
100,000 (90,000 to 104,000) new infections per day at the end of October [1]."
What they have done is assumed that the sensitivity is 75% so 25% of infections are missing.
They have also assumed that you would only test positive for 10 days. This doesn't compare well with the ONS study who estimate ~40k infections gives a prevalence of 640k~ 16 days.
Other reasons may include biasing in sampling such as previous infected individuals unlikely to volunteer.
Very informative as usual. I love your philanthropic ideals, and hope that post-pandemic I can continue to support these in some way. You are a good, generous person...shame there aren’t more like you.
There's many better than him. Educate yourself and watch this video: Viral Impact in England The Empirical Truth Part 1 from Ivor Cummings
I just saw in a newspaper here in Spain an article linking vitamin D deficiency with severe Covid. Finally!
THE WORD IS OUT!! (maybe)
which one so i can show friends there please
I’m convinced if the UK public had been taking Vitamin D from February we would have reduced our deaths by as much as 5000.
But are they specifying the SEASONALLY/SOLAR CYCLIC NATURE of our popultion average levels rising in summer (so lowest Hospitalizations/DEATHS) then dramatically falling (so 2nd Wave Hospitalizations/DEATHS now dramatically rise?)
How about the fact that Covid COMORBIDITIES are all conditions that dramatically lower our Vit☀D levels into deep deficiency, high risk of DEATH!?
This is an illness that truly could be simply solved in one bottle!
Olá
Thank you Dr. Campbell for all the valuable information you've been giving since the start of this pandemic.
What a gift. Thanks for trying to get learning resources out for free.🙏 I will buy a hard copy of both those books, as I like to make notes on pages as I study. Nothing like the feel of a new book, Doc.👍
Thank you Dr. Campbell for the very interesting books that I will be reading very soon. I'm from Morocco, North Africa and I do think that sharing knowledge all over the globe is a very very noble thing to do. Again Thank you so Much 💞
Can they read in Morocco?
@A Writer WHY NOT WEAR A HASMAZT SUITE 24/7
@A Writer ???
@A Writer ese Callum has limited intelligence, don't reply to it .
See the similarities!
Spanish Flu vs Corona
th-cam.com/video/-YmOnJim5wU/w-d-xo.html
Love the masked dog on the windowsill !! Just want to thank you for all these wonderful videos. I have been following you just about every day since the beginning of the pandemic. I am a biology graduate from way back in the 70s and I used to teach nurses So I can really appreciate the wonderful clear way that you explain everything I feel really filled up with knowledge about this virus due to you which is making me feel relatively secure Fascinating to know that you are just down the road I live in Hexham and was amazed to find you are from Carlisle !
Thanks again, Dr. Campbell. My newest mask is the flag of Scotland (great-grandfather). Salute to Sir Winston and God bless all regulars here. We seem to be approaching the home stretch of this.
Dr john will love that he was born in Ayrshire Scotland but lived in England so great for England Scotland and the UK best wishes
Nvr your great grandfather must have been a great guy greetings from Glasgow scotland I'm glad you are proud of your Scottish roots
@@wboyle5899 Thank you. Though we never met, my father has told me of him and, in fact, I was named for him. He was a humble baker in and around Dundee. Brought his wife and children to the U.S. around the turn of the 20th century. God bless you sir.
Well, if Winston can correctly fit a mask without opposable thumbs, we have no excuse!
Remember it will be a problem for those with opposable logic!
It was the phrenology head last time I watched a video of John's
@Master Lawyer You're no master and you're no lawyer. You need to stop believing whatever you want to believe. Fomite transmission has been established to be very rare. Ubiquitous mask wearing has been proven to increase asymptomatic cases: th-cam.com/video/DANEqOPcDwc/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/8x6eSZA90M4/w-d-xo.html
@@flaneur5560 th-cam.com/video/8x6eSZA90M4/w-d-xo.html
Dear Dr John, My Wife and I have followed your corona virus videos nearly every day since March. You are the guiding light that has kept us safe and informed. We would have struggled both mentally and physically if it were not for your wonderfully informative presentations. We cannot thank you enough. God bless you.
Hello Dr John. Thank you for your regular Covid updates, it is so helpful to get up-to-date information in plain English. You are our number one "go to" to remain informed. I was interested in your comment that this second shut down has not been followed to the same extent as the first. My disabled wife and myself are in the vulnerable/ shielding group and live in SW London. Our experience of occasional necessary ventures out for some exercise or to grab some milk (at quieter times) has greatly unsettled us. Despite claims of places being "covid safe" we find major shops and stores exercising no control over numbers, sanitizing points often empty or now hard to find, and no challenges or enforcement of mask wearing. In shopping centers I have challenged security staff who assure us they are enforcing mask wearing, while several customers were standing beside him or walking past, without masks. only ONE shop (Superdrug) was asking customers entering to put on a face covering. This makes us very angry and feels as if people just do not care. It is a selfish, non caring, and "dont give a damn" attitude. I have been trying to excuse it as covid fatigue, but that is wearing thin with me and sadly I am now almost wishing they would get what they deserve (or seem to be courting)! not a place I want to be.
With such attitudes, surely people are playing with a growing likelihood that we will see a third lockdown. Especially as we see little or no evidence of anything that could be excused for enforcement - either by authorities or retailer. Are they just scared to challenge or enforce the rules and why aren't they restricting numbers? - they did in the first shutdown.
You need to sell t-shirts and mugs with your face on saying,”you,re very welcome”.
Or it begs credulity
@@robertflanagan1364 that should be on the back!
He need to set up a Tee mill account and get some t shirts out there for sure !
Lol..or "the scallywags" or "it bemuses me.."
@@jennifermay9640
Or
The........ British........ "Government"
A wonderful cause.
Made a donation and downloaded your books, and shared the link. Thank you!
Greetings from Maine, US. Thank you for the Physiology Notes! A great refresher course for me at the age of 68. I tried downloading the Pathophysiology Notes, but received an error. You are, as always, the best.
Ohioans...golden age 83...
Dido... Alive...see. The more the 😊
Write... Exercise...
Breath...
As we get old. You listen... Probably..
Then laugh
Time is each day and
... Tomorrow is a wonderful again
Thanks so much for the free text books Dr John, I have actually purchased both earlier this year and they are excellent in the way they are written with thorough explanations. I commend you for making them freely available world wide so that people can benefit health wise from them. It is so encouraging to see the high value you place on human life and I wish more people in the world would take a leaf out of your book in this regard. God bless.
Very nice, considerate and unselfish of you to offer your books that you took time to write for free in the interest of expanding and educating others.
Thank you and also for the time you spend on making these videos.
Thankyou for your hard work and altruism John. Your regular postings are something I look forward to and act on! Please keep up your wonderful work. You are so appreciated.
Doctor Campbell, thank you for offering your amazing books free of charge.
All i can say...in my area of VA...i say it again...people are throwing partys and traveling to other states and visa versa...no one is paying attention to what they or doing or they simply flat out just dont care. 1 person in particular was throwing a birthday party for their child and purchased over 12 diff party favors...which means an est 24 to 30 pple will be brought into that persons house for an extended length of time. Do the math...and this was 1 of MANY different instances. 1 lady was traveling to FL w her 2 children and the 1 child had no shoes or socks on her feet and went thru the whole store and check out like that. THIS is the problem here...people simply don't care until it hits home. I expect the USA to hit over 200k cases per day within the next week or 2.
Why, why, why is this so difficult to grasp, for so many?
Still seeing maskless *families* in stores in VA. Very sad
@@rwedereyet i see them in masks for the most part...but i also see them buying party items and crowding others in the ck out lines. I find it extremely frustrating bc i am not allowed to say anything...only the customer in front of me can say something to the person who is encroaching on their 6ft space.
@@lisay5450 Yes. I've spoken to store managers, and they shrug and insist their hands are tied.
@@rwedereyet bc they are. They can't do anything unless corporate gives them authority to do so...and corporate is more worried about making sales then preventing the spread. That's the bottom line.
Thank you John. A kind and generous man.
Speaking from a 18 year old perspective from England unfortunately young people don’t care as much and they are meeting anyway. It’s such a let down because we literally have a vaccine coming so soon
They have a good chance of survival. It does not kill them but increasing numbers are getting long Covid. Only time will tell if those symptoms will be permanent.
I am beginning to think that the Symptom Tracker app may be a "fixed" self selecting sample of people that are more aware of Covid 19 than the general "random" population and therfore, while providing good consistent data, is not providing truly representative populace data.
that sounds highly likely
The ONS figures seem consistently to follow Zoe data but lag behind. Are you suggesting they are fixed too?
There is a simple reason lockdown has been more effective in North than Midlands and London. Activities inhibited, such as attending pubs and clubs, were more prevalent in the North than elsewhere, whereas other activities, such as family gatherings, were driving infections in Midlands and London. These are harder to police and could be ignored by many families.
If lockdown was effective, we'd all be going back into tier one. Lockdowns are not effective, they simply delay the natural process. The previous tiers were doing pretty well as all the relevant data was falling before lockdown started. Not my words, Prof Tim Spector who runs the Zoe App.
Im gonna buy your books, not only for their info, but the amount info I have gotten from these videos throughout the last months. I think I started watching in february or march, at least a few per week.
"A few per week"??
You MISSED THE BEST ONES!! (lol)
Weighted prevalence adjustment will be that they had fewer than average in some age groups where the positives were higher than in other age groups. Presumably they got fewer responses from, say 18-30 year old age group if that age group had higher positive rates, so had to weight that result up.
right, weighted by population
Thank you for keeping us updated! I will be downloading your books too!
Thank you very much for such great contents, may suggest if you could also improve the titles of the videos and make them more descriptive with more keywords so more people could easily find your videos on youtube and benefit from them. Great job, keep it up.
Aloha Dr John Campbell, nice to see you and get some information!
Aloha 😻
Thanks, John. Very interesting and appreciated
Thank you Dr. Campbell, as always your efforts much appreciated, I am using that to cover you making your text books available. Nice to see the dog is protecting itself now while the phrenology bust practices social distancing. My issues with the lockdown measures in Ontario, Canada are of a political nature and not medical, so I will refrain from airing them in your comments.
😍 Grateful here in 🇺🇸 for your
*TRUSTED* Voice. 😷💞🌍
You are a great educator. Generous, clear and concise information. Thank you!
ZOE data may well be a data from self-selecting sample... People who are using this APP are likely to be those who are far more aware and consequently cautious about virus leading to lower lever of positivity
Hi John and Winston, love the mask😷thanks for the update, always so interesting! Where has this year gone🤔🤔keep safe and well 😊⚘xxx
The lockdown atmosphere feels very different this time, which I suspect is more to do with the schools being open than anything else, in my area at least. My impression is that nobody is paying the blindest bit of attention to government messaging beyond trying to work out what is and isn't likely to get you arrested - this isn't such a bad thing though because all the common sense stuff has become second nature. Official communication has been execrable, but on the whole people are perfectly capable of working out what's in their own best interests, and perhaps that bodes well for Christmas. I haven't bumped into an anti-mask type in a long time, happily. There were a few around and making their presence felt when face coverings were first mandated, but perhaps they've all been shouted down now, round here anyway. Not all that convinced by the return to tiers, since we'll be 2 but the other side of the river will be 3. The idea is only as good as the boundaries, as far as I can see. That notwithstanding, the general outlook appears more positive, so long as nothing stupid happens before the vaccination programme is well under way.
SO pleasant a channel that is informing instead of trashing. 🙏🏽
Thank you so much for a link to your books! It's very much appreciated!
Thank you Dr. C, what an honourable gentleman you are offering your books for free. 😉🙏👍☮️
Wow! Thank you Dr John. I know what I shall be reading this Christmas.
John, is there a way of donating using UK paypal site? I have been watching since June; I have learnt so much. Thank you.
Cases in my area were dropping but last 2 days symptom tracker showing increase of almost 100 cases. Parks and local streets crowded with few people following guidelines. Lockdown is a joke. Now comes Christmas with more freedom - bets on another strict national lockdown before February?
I recon we'll be looking at another lockdown in Feb for a month.It will take a month from Xmas for the cases to start to rise significantly.
@@bootburner4544 On average, 87.7 per cent of available beds were occupied across the country in week ending November 22
How bad do you want it to get then ?
@@ThePostie501 They're leaving the same comment everywhere quoting that great data source The Daily Mail..
@@rachelm1816 Figures...
Thank you dr John
I would say the reason for the much lower number of daily new cases in the symptom tracker app is that there can be up to 80% asymptomatic not 20% as you said.
Thank for yet anothother very informative and totaly unbiased video. You are doing a fantastic job
Thank you Dr , i find your talks so informative. Greetings from South Africa 🇿🇦
12 kids from the same year group tested positive over the weekend at my daughters school in Leicestershire, Traffic seems just the same on the daily grind taking my daughter to college in the morning. I'm not surprised that the mockdown hasn't worked here
Did any test positive from other year groups?
.
I am wondering if they are using a cellular kind of arrangement to limit spread within the school.
@@nmarbletoe8210 the different year groups are individual bubbles so yes they are being kept as separate as possible. But there have been other cases since August in all year groups. My daughter is returning to school today after 14 days self quarantine after someone she had been in close contact with tested positive. They recently had to close a year group because so many teaching staff were off because they had either tested positive or had been in contact with someone who had
And again. Thank you Dr
The difference between the tracker app and REACT study infections per day figure could be due to non symptomatic cases. John is using a figure of 20% but some studies suggest it's as high as 50%+. However REACT has always been higher than even ONS, so there is probably some methodological reason for their consistently higher numbers.
You are a champion for the common people. We greatly admire you!
I got a letter from the gov this morning offering free vit d for 4mnth and I would just like to say thanks, John, I wouldn't have bothered with it if I hadn't watched your videos, which are superb, factual and easy on the grey matter. Thank you for your service Dr John Cambell.
What a fandabidozi idea to supply your books for free to people who perhaps are not in such fortunate circumstances. I find your videos so easy to follow. Thank you once again
I agree, there so many places open under the guise of essential services. So the coffee shops, cafes, pubs doing takeaway for an example ( there will be the supply chains to three also )
Dear doctor Campbell.....I have kept my children away from school since September,...I believe I am a responsible parent and if I don't want my child infected I believe that is my right,not to mention the children do not go out and they too don't want to get infected...
So it looks now like I have a legal case coming ....I have followed your videos for quite a while...thank you for all the info ,keep up the good work!
Transfer them to deep mineshaft
If you rely on this mans opinions you will lose your case. He is not an expert witness.
@@andrewpacker5619 Ministers dismiss health concerns as huge UK firm consults on injecting microchips into its workers as advised by Bill Gates the Microsoft billionaire.
Chip implants, which triggered lethal cancers in lab mice and rats, and which have never been tested long-term in humans, are about to be embedded into, potentially, ‘hundreds of thousands’ of UK workers.
Swedish biohacking company, Biohax, says it’s in talks with several UK legal and financial firms, which cannot be named, to have some of their staff chipped for ‘security’ reasons. One prospective client is a major financial services firm with ‘hundreds of thousands of employees’.
Jowan Österlund, founder and ceo of Biohax, told the Telegraph: ‘These companies have sensitive documents they are dealing with. [The chips] would allow them to set restrictions for whoever.’
The news caused alarm across the political spectrum. Yvette Cooper, prominent Labour MP, tweeted: ‘Is this real? If so, extremely troubling. [The] idea of employers microchipping workers raises massive ethical questions & huge potential for exploitation.’
David Kurten of Ukip tweeted: ‘Grooming propaganda for human microchipping is beginning. There must never be any obligation for a human being to be chipped, nor any disadvantage or penalty for refusing a chip.’
There was also concern from the Trade Union Congress (TUC) which is concerned staff could be coerced into being chipped. Frances O’Grady, the general secretary said: ‘Microchipping would give bosses even more power and control over their workers. There are obvious risks involved, and employers must not brush them aside, or pressure staff into being chipped.’
The CBI, which represents 190,000 UK businesses, told the Guardian: ‘While technology is changing the way we work, this makes for distinctly uncomfortable reading. Firms should be concentrating on rather more immediate priorities and focusing on engaging their employees.’
There is increasing alarm that if, as now seems inevitable, implants go mainstream, those who opt out owing to ethical, health, philosophical or religious grounds, will be gradually frozen out of jobs and even society.
Those fears proved well-founded when ceo of the World Olympians Association, Mike Miller, said Olympians should be chipped 'like dogs'. 'In order to stop doping we need to chip our athletes… Some people say it’s an invasion of privacy, well, sport is a club and people don’t have to join the club if they don’t want to, if they can’t follow the rules,' Miller was quoted as saying.
In September 2007, the Washington Post reported a series of veterinary and toxicology studies, dating to the mid-‘90s, showed chip implants had 'induced' malignant tumours in some lab mice and rats. The Post quoted Keith Johnson, a retired toxicologic pathologist, as saying: ‘The transponders were the cause of the tumours.’ Johnson had led a study in 1996 at the Dow Chemical Co in Michigan.
After reading the studies reported by the Post, Dr Robert Benezra, head of the Cancer Biology Genetics Program at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York, said: ‘There's no way in the world, having read this information, that I’d have one of those chips implanted in my skin, or in one of my family members.’
The three studies performed so far were published in veterinary and toxicology journals between 1996-2006. According to the Post, the studies found lab mice and rats injected with microchips sometimes developed subcutaneous 'sarcomas' - malignant tumours, most of them encasing the implants.
Investigations began when RFID critic Katherine Albrecht was contacted by a pet owner whose dog had reportedly died of a tumour induced by a chip implant. Albrecht's subsequent research into the scientific literature uncovered the studies in question. She brought them to the attention of The Associated Press, which embarked on a four-month investigation and found additional studies.
‘In our research we found between 1-10% of laboratory animals implanted with radio frequency microchips developed cancer adjacent to and even surrounding the microchips,’ said Albrecht.
The fad was brought to a stop but in 2016, it emerged again, this time in Sweden, where office workers enthusiastically embraced implants. Now, more than 4,000 Swedes use them as train tickets, car keys, gym cards, credit cards and ID, and there are thought to be as many as 100,000 ‘chipped’ people worldwide.
It should be noted none of the studies cited specifically set out to investigate the cancer risk of implanted chips, so none had a control group of animals that did not get implanted. In addition, there should also be caution about assuming that because chips have caused cancer in animals they will do so in humans.
Nonetheless, there’s little doubt the case for long-term testing in humans is imperative and urgent given the fact the implants are on the verge of going mainstream and could eventually become mandatory.
Bill Gates confirmed the chips are perfectly safe and people who have nothing to fear should embrace this empowering technology.
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2X higher risk of hospitialization if
theres no need to keep your children home,heres some real science on the immune system,the immune systems main power comes from the completed forms of vit a and vit d,if they are low the coronavirus can make you sick,raise them so the immune system is strong,thats how you protect yourself and your children,kids take this mon to fri - 1 x 1000mg caps cod liver oil and 1x 750mg caps beef liver extract that combination contains all the neccessary stuff that makes the immune system strong and healthy,donot frighten your children with fake science,educate them with real science on the immune system,lockdowns,facemask are not good for your health,make the immune system strong,you wont hear this from fake science people
Thank you so much for your informative videos. It’s appreciated.
What it all boils down to is people with common sense and people without common sense, the people with the common sense have kept the numbers down through their endeavor and the people with no common sense are holding the numbers to stay elevated. So what is the answer my advice is to all those without any sense is get some, and we can all start thinking of having a normal life once more.
Yeah, southerners, tsk, no common sense.
What about those in hospital who get infected just by being there, potentially fatal to a copd sufferer
This is why infections need to end. Less infections outside hospital, less cases in hospital. As John says it’s a simple analogy.
precisely that, lucky my mum went in hospital for a double by-pass and was in two hospitals waiting for that op. she was there about three weeks. She didn’t got Covid there tested her three times and didn’t tell her if she was positive or negative.
that in itself shows they do Not give a dam.
@@sukiduke348 who does not give a dam?
@@classicraceruk1337 the ones who says you should get tested and self isolate. well how could you know if they don’t tell you.
there always talk about get tested blah blah blah, and Covid is a real thing it the scary thing Ever. they don’t even told someone that got tested three times. she could had it or haven’t but wasn’t told and left the hospital.
COPD? WHAT IS IT?
Can I just say CHRISTMAS. Dreading the next spike.
Donation sent 👍👍👍
I’ve just received my letter saying I will be getting vitamin D free from the government starting in January.
At last! What strength are they sending? Hopefully it's at least 2000 I.U.
Doesn’t say what strength but it gives a whole list of people with pre existing conditions who shouldn’t take it.
You should not use this service if you have any of these conditions:
high vitamin D levels
kidney stones (now or in the past)
too much parathyroid hormone (hyperparathyroidism)
cancer (some cancers can lead to high calcium levels)
severe kidney disease
a rare illness called sarcoidosis
I keep seeing advice online that we have to take vitamin K2 with vitamin D3 to avoid atherosclerosis and kidney stones. It channels the vit D away from the bloodstream and into the bones. You can just eat liver to get K2 or eggs from pastured hens or butter from grass fed cows (Kerrygold). Or like I do take Vit K2 supplement. I don't see John Cambell recommending this which surprises me.
@@musicloverUK not sure about vitamin K2 but the NHS advice for vitamin K is. What does the Department of Health and Social Care advise?
You should be able to get all the vitamin K you need by eating a varied and balanced diet.
If you take vitamin K supplements, do not take too much as this might be harmful.
Taking 1mg or less of vitamin K supplements a day is unlikely to cause any harm.
Page last reviewed: 3 August 2020
Thanks for the text book links! I made a donation via paypal but when completed it took me back to the channel, so I had to go back to the original link to download the free one. I so appreciate all that you've done here to keep us updated. Thank you
Awesome! Thank you!
@@Campbellteaching I wish I could give more, I know they are worth more than I could give at the moment - out of a job just now because of Covid.... later on if I can I'll give more or pay it forward. Thanks again!
In the light of the US upward case curve, will the government impose restrictions on US citizens entering the UK ?
pretty sure there have been severe restrictions on All US citizens travelling to every part of the world since April this year . boy are you out of touch !! lol
Considering the insane number of per capita cases in the US, I’d be surprised if any other country was willing to let US citizens in without a vaccine certificate from this point on. It’s like their govt is conducting a culling. It’s pathological. 🤭😔
Imperial data says 70,000 at end of October, halving every 37 days. Now the end of November, half would be about 35,000 cases.
Symptom tracker app is current with 23,000 cases, +20% for asympomatics = 27,600 today.
Closer than at first inspection. We have seen more divergent data than this before on this channel.
Love your videos Dr Campbell. I'm sure I'm not alone appreciating your hard work researching, translating and presenting the scientific studies and data being produced.
Protecting the elderly and the vulnerable is the sole measure that should ever have been taken.
@Bob Lawblawblaw We can all make glib remarks I guess that happens when you have nothing else to say. Dr C doesis not an epidemiologist either. If inclined we can all educate ourselves and that means researching on a broad scale not just using main media, following the government narrative or listenig to SAGE all of whom should be sacked for their fear mongering. Load of self opinionated pyschopaths.
Yeah but not their type of protecting....completely isolating them and not giving them a choice to see relatives or not. Cruel
@@bootburner4544 I have been at our local hospital (we only have the one) recently. Staff stated less busy (inpatients). Had cause to walk through the outpatients which was deserted and we are currently in tier 1
@@decbony Agree
@@bootburner4544 Is that the one Cardiff Uni were working on?
Hi Dr John, the lockdown began on 5th November in England. Surely the effect of this wouldn’t have been seen in the figures until a few weeks later and not in the figures of this study! The figures on the ZOE app show the impact of the lockdown is only now being seen and so those in this study were as a result of the previous tier measures, prior to lockdown! Sorry if I’ve misunderstood this 😀
COVID Symptom Study map only shows prevalence in 20-69 year olds. Might this accounts for some of the discrepancy with the Imperial College figures?
Where did u get that plush dog from? So cute!
Of course lockdown works.....the question is whether it's socially and economically justifiable.....but if we had a test and trace system and everybody wore masks etc like they do in countries like Taiwan.....we wouldn't be having this discussion....let's hope the vaccine will be better organised.....
Not many following the rules where I live 🤦♂️
nor here in nottingham, sadly.
Nor here and that’s a good thing. Better that people are living as normal as they can instead of being holed up at home
@@Mikey374 id hate to think i was responsible for the untimely death of my great great grandparents with my selfish behaviour though.
Stay safe Nottingham greetings and best from glasgow
Good for them
Great work as always but I'd argue that because of the discrepency between the north and south, you can't rule out the reduction in cases could being caused by some other factor; for example an increased degree of immunity, as opposed to the lockdown specifically. Especially as it seems like there are many fewer people not following lockdown so stringently this time around.
I'd recommend people look at some of the analysis done by others such as Ivor Cummins as it seems to provide quite an interesting insight into potential other causes for the reductions in cases and other general data about the pandemic.
This is a request - asking that a layperson gets some help to understand the very different view points that exist. Please reference the comments being made by prof. Eucharist Bhakdi and Mike Yeadon. To name two. What are we to make of this?
I worked in infection control in hospital environments for many years. I disagree with some of the conclusions of Dr Campbell. However listening to Mike Yeadon et al I find some of their ideas simplistic and from a practical level in regards to care unrealistic. Even the independent SAGE disagree with his views. Yes He as qualifications but he is not an epidemiologist. His qualifications cover a very narrow area of the disease process.
I love your videos! Winston is so cute with his lil mask 😷 what a good boy !
You are a good teacher for me, I hope I can learn a lot from you
I keep asking this question but no one seems to have the answer. The PCR test process entails a sample being "amplified" a number of times to "hunt" for RNAs, the number of amplifications before "cut-off" is called a Ct (Cycle threshold), now when Mullis created this test in the 80s the stated 25Ct was 25X amplifications, the US are using between 40 to 45 Ct, the UK anywhere between 37 and 45X amplifications, top scientists since the 80s have stated the maximum of 33Ct (amplified 33 times), anything over this Ct figure will be picking up dead RNAs and so will be a false positive.
IMO all PCR results should state the Ct value used, this does 2 things, it would prevent over-whelming the NHS and also save the economy from collapsing any further than it already has.
The PCR test is simple "yes/no" diagnostic tool, it cannot accurately measure the viral load and cannot tell the difference between "active" RNAs and "redundant" RNAs, it was never designed for "screening".
I believe that their should be a globally accepted Ct rate used and stated on all results, surely then we can see the true level of "cases".
@Burt Burlingham lol I fecking forgot, why are we not using a globally set CT value?
@Burt Burlingham I didn't take it that way mate. I just can't get my head around that fact, surely the CT value should be set in stone,, who knows my friend. Take care fella and stay positive.
Your question was implied in your post. I have been perplexed by this issue too. Why has the WHO not commissioned such a study in order to standardise a testing procedure, including CT? I assume it is possible to titrate CT number against viral load of swab sample. Truth and clarity are among the casualties of this pandemic.
@@wiccalite Blessings Be, wiccan? I can only agree with you, it seems that there are more questions than answers and to me that is pretty concerning. I think all PCR results should state the CT value, it makes more sense in every way, but we're just mere "peasants" it seems and must question the science being used.
Stay well wiccalite.
FDA have just authorised a home testing kit. It is available on prescription only. Check out the press release www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-first-covid-19-test-self-testing-home. I don’t know how it compares with PCR which is held as gold standard so a bit of a digression from your post but interesting nevertheless
Love Winstons expression
Thank you for the upload! I have been regretting that my anatomy and physiology etc books were left in Cambodia because I have wanted to refer to them for a while now. If I understand correctly, I can refer this link to (medical) students in there.
what are you ding in the uk. go back to combodia
@@esecallum Did you steal someone's account?
I love that Winston is wearing his mask!!
He’s a good little compliant proletariat
Thank You for these,did you know 1311 cases were misdiagnosed as positive in the UK last week (that we know about) how many other times do you think this has happened and not gone rectified?
No bum sniffing for Winston!
😆
Lol
Well considering I'm now 1 week in of symptoms ( cough, lightheadedness, aches in muscles, difficulty sleeping,) I'm happy to take lockdown tiers to get this uncer control.
Focuses the mind, doesn't it?
Be well. X
Hopefully you will make a swift full recovery!
Get better soon 😊🌷xx
WHY NOT GO TO THE BEACH AND WASH THE VIRUS IN THE OCEAN?
Dr Campbell the voice of reason ☺️
Winston is wearing a supernice mask!
Thank you for another excellent video 🙏 Success with lockdowns and other mitigations and with no vaccines yet! UK doesn't seem to have politicized masks.
@Charlie Hunt Absolutely 👍
The R rate not going down at same rate in some areas may be due to less people following lockdown instructions in those places. The North had more incentive in terms of higher tiers pre lockdown.
Its to do with the shambolic testing. Its a mess. The mass PCR tests are causing more problems than they solve. They distort what's going on. Even Dr C is now bemused by what's going on.
Good to see that Winston has his mask on! 😷
Zoe records those voluntarily join in this study. Possibly lots of people with COVID might not register this study & therefore the number is much lower.
Or higher
Both Zoe and the Government figures (ONS) extrapolate upwards from cases they know about into estimated cases in the population as a whole. So it's not just a factor of who is being tested or reporting.
My gut feeling is come the Christmas easing of the household rules and a few pints later we could see a spike in January the government might have given us a clue with the so - called ' sun set date' .
peter cole
I'd say your "gut feeling" is spot on. I would add that there's the possibility of a "Christmas shopping spike" in a few weeks.
No worries, by spring herd immunity will be obvious
lockdowns dont work, they just delay natural herd immunity. The whole thing is farcical.
Theyd have you believe
@@rogerstarkey5390 fabricated yes
Thank you for the pdfs and all the work you do!
We are all in this together. We need to support each other and think about the people who will die and those who will suffer from long Covid. We live in a democracy, if you don't like the way the country is being run the power is in your hands, don't forget when the time comes.
Good to see Winston wearing his mask.
I think the asymptomatic rate of 0.20 is probably low and that it is closer to 0.35.
ToP MaN
Dr John
Highly AppreciateD
From InveRcLydE....
True top guy from Glasgow 👍
CORRELATION OR CAUSATION?
Dr. John, I’m sure your analysis is correct, but scientifically, correlation does not imply causation! Would it be possible that the correlation is the other way around ... COVID causes lockdowns, which is of course true. But, since there are no double blind studies, there doesn’t seem to be any way to know for sure.
yeah that could be a major issue.
.
one could look at timing, perhaps, for a clue on causation?
Like the way you explain with details.👍🇺🇲
Spot the dog with the mask on 😂
I must be the only one who thought Winston was a black panther!
That’s Winston the depression dog 🐩
Cheeky sod, that's my mother
I noticed Winston's mask late into the video 😂 so cute!
Thank you Dr C 😉☮️👍