Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS (20240610a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 มิ.ย. 2024
- Here is today's UWU NEWS giving you all the nuggets you need to add to your understanding of events.
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onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?r...
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Videos/sources:
Hits/losses
x.com/KilledInUkraine/status/...
x.com/NOELreports/status/1799...
x.com/Tendar/status/179982321...
x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/17998...
x.com/JayinKyiv/status/179981...
x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/179...
x.com/mhmck/status/1799793246...
x.com/GlasnostGone/status/179...
x.com/TWMCLtd/status/17997912...
x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/...
x.com/noclador/status/1799856...
x.com/TWMCLtd/status/17999148...
x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/...
x.com/JayinKyiv/status/180005...
x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1...
x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/18000...
x.com/TrentTelenko/status/179...
x.com/TWMCLtd/status/18000664...
Strikes
x.com/TrentTelenko/status/179...
x.com/Archer83Able/status/179...
x.com/NOELreports/status/1800...
x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/...
x.com/UkrReview/status/180004...
x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/...
x.com/JayinKyiv/status/179999...
x.com/nexta_tv/status/1800066...
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0:00 Start
0:10 Hits/losses
25:00 Strikes
32:47 Other
_____
DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSS DATA
1) These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
2) These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
3) All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
4) Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
5) Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
6) Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
7) Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
8) All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
9) Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
ERRRR, FORGOT TO PRESS GO. LIKE, AGES AGO.
Better late than never
Fine by me says the New England yank.
l was watching a programme about the American invasion of Okinawa in 1945. The Japanese were losing about 1000 men a day and suddenly they all started surrendering. It was completely unexpected. It could happen in Ukraine, especially if word continues to get back to Russia that prisoners are treated well by Ukraine.
According to Wikipedia one-third of the surrendering soldiers were native Okinawans who had been forcibly conscripted. By that time in 1945 the Japanese were already defeated in multiple South Pacific battles with huge casualties. Okinawa was the first battle in which Japanese soldiers surrendered in large numbers. Russia, unfortunately, is nowhere near the same state as Japan was then. It would be wonderful to see Russian soldiers surrendering en-masse but at this stage it is unlikely. I would be delighted to be proved wrong.
@@Dinna-beDaft Thanks. Good reply.
Drones in this war are like the Aircraft Carriers of the pacific war in WW2..... You just know every army in the world now is putting all their budget into developing counter measures.
Wonderful to see both your audience and yourself militating on behalf of mathematical standards. Not enough of it about on YT.... or in academia... or in politics! Many thanks!
That Cane Corso is a legend! 💪 A true warrior!
❤❤❤
Health officials ban bathing in the sea of Azov due to environmental issues. Rivers of untreated sewage are flowing in the streets of Mariupol and another environmental catastrophe is looming
Yay my lucky streak just got extended again as this dropped just in time for my break :) thanks for your tireless efforts Jonathan, f*** Putin & Slava Ukraini !!
I thought so, cause your last video came out over a hour ago. Thanks JP, Good Day TEAM!
Hi Jason 🇺🇦 ❤
Thanks for the bit of optimism there JP!
Good morning JP👋🙂
Good evening team 👋🙂
👍🏻🍷
@@bobrichards6696 hi Bob👍🍸 I hope everything is good with you mate
@@saberint All good mate, you too ? 👍🏻
@@bobrichards6696 pretty good thanks mate👍
Hi Matt 🤗 ❤
It's commonplace in wartime for. Enemy losses to be overstated. It's just a matter of by how much.
Hi team, thank you for supporting Ukraini 🌻🔱 Thank you JP for keeping us informed 🫡🇺🇦
Hi Auzzie. T , Great to see you here … & Thanks Johnathan for the update ..💙💛💙
@@mike4480 Hi Mike 🫡💙💛
🤗 😘
@@surpriseitsus9622 🤗😘😊
Morning JP 👍😊
Hi all!
Hi Mika and GTSY
👍🏻🍷
@@richardbennett8522 Hi Richard!
@@bobrichards6696 Hi Bob!
Hi Mika, I hope you are well today.
Good morning again Jonathan and ATP team. 😊
Hi 🤗
Good morning Jonathan and the ATP Team
🤗
Hello all, love a bumper news ❤️🌻
💙💛Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
❤😊
The Russians at home are easier to intimidate as they are a much older group then they were in past wars. Hence a greater tolerance to deaths on the battlefields.
Hi all great to see all the distant strikes being so successful
G’day all 👍🏻🇦🇺🇺🇦 thank you for all of your hard work Jonathan 👍🏻☕️🫖
🥇👏👏👏👏👍😊
Hi Bob 👋👍😊
@@paraandy3821G’day Andy 👍🏻🍷
@@paraandy3821hope ya doing well, from rifleman Roy.
🌃 ❤
Re Kerch Bridge rail traffic. If the trains are returning to Russia they will be empty and probably not a problem for the bridge. Since the Rail ferries have been severely limited after Ukraine’s recent strikes on the ferries, it would make sense to return empty via the bridge to reduce the turnaround time for the remaining ferries. Of course I could be wrong and they are throwing caution to the wind.
Thank you
🥉👏👏👏👏👍😊
Morning and Thanks as usual for these , G’ day Bob ✌🏼
G’day Simon 👍🏻🍷
I don't imagine the dump fire is too healthy for the locals.
I woke up to a Gifted Membership, what a wonderful random act of kindness and gift for my birthday. Thank you to the person who gifted me the membership. ATP Geopolitics is my fav channel
Thanks Jon.
🥈👋👋👋👋👍😊
Ello Jack 👋👍
@@paraandy3821 Hi Andy, thank you. Have a great day. Cheers
👋
"invisible drones that no air defence system in the world can shoot down" = We did not see them, so they are invisible.
They are called "partisans" in French...
The cane Corso has a special look. He owns the space around him.
A military cemetary next to a landfill. Oh russia, I hope you never change.
Remember that this is only officers..
Good morning, everyone..........
I’m really glad that you cleared up that math problem at the start of the video… people do this with stocks all the time and end up loosing money… if you loose 50% you have to gain 100% to get back to the start and that usually takes YEARS
We were also forgetting that helicopter raid into Russia to attack and set on fire an oil depot, also a while ago. Everyone was stunned by that, Russians included.
That was a wonderful strike in the early weeks of the war. Belgorod had not been targeted before and supposedly has air defenses.
Roughly 50x loss of Russians from Afgan to Ukraine war based on that 1 city. If Russia lost 9k in Afghan overall that would be 450k in Ukraine?
I am amazed that the sea-drones are operating in the Azov sea. Seems that the Kerch bridge is not the impenetrable defence to sea drones that the Russians claim.
There is the Sivash, a shallow marsh that can be traversed from the Black Sea. That is how the Ukrainians did their first hit on the Kerch bridge.
Regardless of diminishing the gross losses by whatever percentages you envisage as realistic, the net losses remain quite large. On a continuous monthly basis, these losses are not sustainable and at some stage Putin must get the picture that he cannot win this war. Suing for peace wil cause him to lose face. We can only wait and see what the future holds for both parties. Ukraine must definitely win this war. The cost of sustaining this conflict must be tremendous.
Absolutely. Quite economy destroying costs, not that Putin cares. He wants his kingdom built at all costs.
Thanks for the commentary. Sounds like you have some doubts about the casualty and equipment numbers. Maybe you could reference some other source occasionally for a reality check. Good work.
Good morning Jonathan and team. Thanks for the math lesson! The numbers you used as an example is really close to the CAD to Euro. If I want to send 100 euro to a Ukrainian fundraiser, it costs me $148 cdn. So when you quote uneven amounts that Canada has contributed, it's b/c of the exchange. Eg. $80 million CAD is 54 million Euro.
Another thing is that drones also hit air defence. The capability of these as a durable weapon have been excessively underestimated.
And if 1 MLRS is inflated number by a third, then the real number is...🤔
🤯 no, make it stop
@@surpriseitsus9622
Lynn, you make me laugh...
FUN!
Maths: We've been here before. A while back a few of you [reporters] did a justification-calculation, where we saw that in metal lost over the past 2 years, the visually confirmed losses floated between 58% and 65% of reported numbers. Later-on you told us that Andrew Perpetua found a lot more metal with more detailed maps.
So if one wants to play it safe, I'd say 33% overrating is your upper limit.
That brings you close to visually confirmed: 75% of the reported numbers.
Which is 25% underrating
(If the numbers say 1000, then take off 25%, you get 750 and you have to add 33[.3333333]% [1/3] to get back to 1000).
15% underrating = 850 = 17,65% overrating
20% underrating = 800 = 25% overrating
25% underrating = 750 = 33,33% overrating
There’s so much equipment lost for both sides that isn’t captured by drones, which will muddy the waters. On trying to analyse the numbers. Whatever happens Ukraine will surely be the biggest scrap metal merchants on the planet.
Thanks Jonathan for your response on deflation.
Great video as always thank you for the information provided by your good self
My go to Reports - most comprehensive news round ups. Thank you
I think the "Invisible drone" comment is Russian sarcasm.
Also the 5 vs 51 losses at start - you missed this was re officers only.
Thanks JP.
Humor is always the toughest thing to translate from one language to anther.
Nobody said maths would be involved in today’s brief ……my head hurts !!
Me too, l,m confused 🤔
🤯 I hate math
Nah, that is weather related...
40:27 raid yes. Big landing no. Unfortunately Ukraine has no sealift capability for a landing and supporting more than half a battalion
My understanding is that the claim isn’t that was the first time Ukraine did airstrikes into Russia, but the first time the AFU did so with some western supplied precision aerial munitions
Brilliant info, thanks for sharing much appreciated 👍
Thank, Jonathan.
🇺🇦🎯🇷🇺🚂🚀💥🔥🇷🇺🚂🔥👍🇺🇦 !
The statistics just point out that the more equipment you have, the more you have to loose.
Just as the Germans found the anti-air '88' to be their best gun against allied tanks during WWII, maybe the Russians should just use S300/400 in ground-to-ground mode only. What air targets have either side actually shot down using these systems?
The russians have shot down a reasonable number of aircraft with their S300 systems, some were even Ukranian.
The Ukranians have used them successfully against drones, missiles and russian aircraft unfortunately a few of their own too.
Russia has shot down both their own helicopters and fighter jets with them. I would assume they have actually done some Ukrainian jets and helicopters, as well.
Most Ukrainian aircraft are shot down with manpads or short/medium range missiles near the front lines. They are flying knap of the earth and rarely rise enough for S-300/400 to target.
Sullivan claiming that the Charkiv offensive has stalled also means that he will see no need to let Ukraine use long range missiles over the border.
So you’re a Math Professor as well as a Geopolitickin one!😜
It's 12 year old maths at best, glad he has grasped a basic principle.
🇺🇦🎯🇷🇺🛢️🚀💥🔥🇷🇺🛢️🔥👍🇺🇦 !
The Ukrainian army knows the position of s300 and 400 in Crimea. So probably they know how many there are. I would like to know too. Many have been destroyed. Probably they brought some other. I wonder what the status is.
They moved Mariupol's S-300 batteries to Crimea.
Great to see Charlie Munger and Warren Buffets Margin of Safety applied outside of ifnance😂
Thanks Jonathan 👍 if putin only gave you a call before the kharkiv offensive ☎️ he could have saved himself a lot of hassle 😂😂🥰
Slava ukraini 🔱💪🇺🇦🇬🇧🇺🇸🇨🇵✌️
Tru dat
This is 'cost of good' versus 'markup'. 30% markup on 100 is 130. 30% Cost of goods of 100 is 100 divided by 1.3 or 76.923. As percentage discount, then, 30% markup, is around 23.07%.
I always assumed adding 30 percent would be 100 plus 30 when you say it not minus a 3rd 😅 Tho looking at the stats from Britain and America it is closer to 15 percent less than a third...
03:15 -
Put another way :
The GS probably operates with an error margin of 5% or 10% on calculated losses, but reports externally using the most optimistic scenario (N+5% or N+10%).
To get at the most conservative scenario (N-5% or N-10%), you would divide the reported figure by 1.105 (5%) or 1.222 (10%), rounding off.
Personnel loss of 1190 becomes either 1077 (5%) or 974 (10%)
Artillery loss of 51 becomes either 46 (5%) or 42 (10%)
Feels like F16 time.
... soon ...
Good math!
👋🏼🫶🏼🇺🇦🇬🇧
Hi JP at about 11 mins you are talking about Russian losses compared to Afgan It shows losses as Officers and not other ranks so its worse i wonder how many OR's were 200/300!!! Cheers for all your work keep safe!! Tim
Good morning Jonathan. The US version of victory is far different than the Ukraine version. Escalation management is hampering the war. Ukraine must become capable of making it's own advanced weapons, especially drones and missiles. A.I. and drones are literally the way to achieve this. This could be the technology breakthrough Ukraine needs.
Ukraine is ramping up production of their own guided bomb kits as we speak. They make their own missiles, tanks, artillery, personnel carriers, drones, and anti-tank ATGMs.
😮
Sup bois
Tank and apc losses alot less!! Less in the field? ARTY AND VEHICLE LOSSES UP , GREAT
"Woe to you, oh Earth and sea, for the Devil sends the. Beast with wrath. Because he knows the time is short. 666!
What the daily estimates tell you are the trends and conditions. They point is that the Russians have lost a lot of people and equipment. The equipment is easier to estimate because of video and satellite. Personnel, historically, are over inflated, but there is evidence from Russian sources that support the numbers of KIA.
His name is Scottish, pronounced Mac ah ee
24:20 For young people WHO DO NOT KNOW OR DO NOT REMEMBER THE EUROPEAN FIRE-FIGHTING CANADAIRS IN THE LAST 15 YEARS Who SAVED THE RUSSIANS THE ASS THERE THEY SEE THEM WITH BINOCULARS OR WITH AIR-GROUND MISSILE
Starlink losses means loss of control over drones.
Wee help with the take-off equivalent of adding a third; its reducing the number given by 25%.
Working eg-start with 3 add a third is 4, to get back to 3 take off a quarter from the imaginary inflated result of 4=3
I think!
Every vehicle is manned and most carrying personal? The numbers are correct . 10% possibly?👍
Hi Jonathan, it would be interesting to hear what the effects of the destruction of the Kahovka dam has made to Crimea
If i remember correctly there was a water take off into a canal just upstream of the dam that fed water to Crimea. Surely that now has gone
I have seen some reports that rivers in Crimea have been running very low
That has been dry for a year now.
Johnnie - you could shorten your videos by making a series of detailed explanations/analogy recordings and referring to links in your notes. You could keep the daily analogies for newbie’s short and pithy and refer new listeners to the detailed explanations.
But Jonathan loves giving those. It is his relief valve.
JP on the command truck you can see the 4 kill is a plane
Jonathan says, ruzzian "air defenses are getting rinsed", leaving us with a positive thought.
Many thanks for that Jonathan 😊
Damn shame the West is leaving many opportunities to set the record straight with ruzzia starting from various tactical level to the geopolitical level 🥸
For what purpose should Ukrainians send a drone worth 10,000s of dollars to strike a furniture shop far away in Samara? I would rather take a chance on an insurance job.
🇺🇦🎯🇷🇺🏭🚀💥🔥🇷🇺🏭🔥👍🇺🇦 !
Jonathan,.... there is technology that can evade radar detection which could be utilized in conjunction with drone technology in facilitating stealth attacks on enemy targets. Whether that is in fact being used or not is another question. The Russians may simply have been sleeping at the controls, drunk on vodka or having taken to using drugs as they sometimes are known to do. Ivan is not so very reliable that the Russians can exclude human error as a primary cause.
Less by 1/3
multiply x by 2/3 to get Y To return to x multiple Y by 3/2
How many are "missing"/captive/wounded there are from that same place? It would be more revealing information
I was thinking instead of planning a landing in Crimea they might be preparing for taking aerial control of that part of the Black Sea.
If russia puts naval assets in the area for air defence they will be in Neptune missile range. I imagine they have some form of suitable surprise for russian aircraft too.
If I was a betting man J, I'd say a landing is on the way which would cause absolute chaos in the Russian rear.
Kevin, I'll take that bet. I would love to see it, but Ukraine can not do the logistical support such a landing requires. My proxy "coin" vs yours...
@@sirsmeal3192 dont get me wrong nothing large scale but something on the same scale as the Krishon bridgehead.
Paras and marines in crimea would be suicide, how do you reinforce and supply!
Math!
Correct on the thirds. But I doubt it can be a mathematical thing anyways. Just often don't know if you got the varmint or not. The only existing clue I see to think Ukraine would intentionally fudge the numbers is called projection.
According to Starsky, the Ukrainian MoD has a pretty well-defined set of parameters + evidence you have to meet to register a ruzzian loss. We don't know what those are, but if they are used then you would expect the same kind of error over any large sample of losses. e.g. a consistent over-estimation by a certain percentage in any given category. So not a mathematical addition, but a statistically verifiable one.
ruzzia rinsed indeed - again I wonder do they have busier troops working in recruiting offices or in the graves and registration department?
Aren't they the same in Russia?
Russia would go broke trying to have enough air defense to cover their country.
They are anyway...
I wonder if the vids Andrew list Starlinks from are recent, if Musk is still allowing Rusia access.
Slava Ukraini and Russia has the best laws on the environment.....they just don't enforce them.
What is a "bobik"? On perpetua's list for Ukr losses?
I'm going to try to convince you again that hitting Starlinks, especially russian, IS SIGNIFICANT. One of the common russian front line complaints since the start of the war has been poor or none communications. Degrading russian communications, especially starlink, is a huge hit on their ability to fight in a co-ordinated fashion. It makes meat waves more likely.
I suspect that in this war less war information, particularly fatalities, is getting to the general public than during rus Afghanistan war. People know what fatalities are local, but they have no idea of fatalities farther away and overall.
400k + 30% is like 520k
There ae russian lose that we are not seen but the Ukraine can see and think tanks are very close to this number.
X100 ÷130=!