This is the most comprehensive analysis of the accident that I have seen. Thank you so much. You provide the engineering drawings and specifications that support intuitive conclusion.
Excellent analysis and presentation! I think that the Bayesian may also have been handicapped by pushing the limits of design of a single masted sailing vessel too far. Technology in the future may be able to address these limitations, especially from what’s learned in this disaster. However, there’s always the human element that resists error proofing as we’ve learned from many disasters, including the Titanic. And finally, as you mentioned, there’s always the one percent freaks of nature that can deep six any vessel. The best we can hope for from this disaster is that designers and sailors alike can learn something from it.
the report is a bit boring. the authors just try to stay on the safe side, at some point you need to take a position, otherwise what's the point. My favorite here is eSysman, on yachting channels, sth like that. he also stays neutral, but he talks his own opinion. this gentleman here just seems to be a speaker.
The PSYCHOLOGY of the situation would be another interesting point besides the obvious compromises in the ship's design: when I sail with my family, friends or charter guests, waking them up at 5 AM and instructing them to put on their life vests is different from waking up a multi-billionaire super-boss, his business partners and top-notch lawyers after a late party when they have a good dose of alcohol in their blood. These types of people usually don't like being bossed around. As captain you probably even think twice about turning off the air conditioning and closing the vents to avoid risking your job. If such an alarm turns out to be exaggerated the next morning, the captain almost certainly will lose his job. I can imagine that the psychological pressure on the captain and crew of these luxury yachts is enormous: the guests want to have fun, party, relax & drink and have as much interest in learning about life-saving equipment and emergency procedures as a teenager has in learning Latin.
Most people in party mode, hung over at 5am and slumbering it out for a few hours wouldn’t appreciate safety precautions, let alone an abandon ship command. The moaning and bitching on a $3k tin can would be similar to a $30m luxury tin can…aboard one there’d likely be fisticuffs…on the other a sacking. The real psychology might be that unless you prioritise safety and be alert to safety risks then you increase the chances of harm or tragedy. And if you believe a vessel is unsinkable then you are romancing a dream. Often it takes a serious event to alter this mindset…and if you are in party mode then you are usually freewheeling on half a brain (which doesn’t compute logic entirely either)…but I bet that anyone close to those that perished will forever be more conscious of safety…and that the surviving owner and crew will forever wish they had done something differently. Life is an adventure - there’s always hazards to navigate…and sometimes there’s harsh lessons to learn for us all.
Some interesting points you make. I'm hoping this disastrous event will shake every boat going person, including Billionaires, into action and learn to take safety ALOT more seriously.
The argument sounds correct on the surface, but by hiring a professional captain, the owner is transferring the responsibility for the vessel, crew and passengers to the captain. That includes unpopular decisions. If the owner does not agree, he can get the necessary training and captain his mega-yacht himself. However, the issue runs much deeper and is not limited to captains on mega-yachts. We see the same issue in mountain guiding. On the surface, both the captain and the mountain guide are hired for their skills and to ensure safety. However, making conservative decisions is easy. If local fishermen stay in port, don't have a party but button up your yacht and drop the keel. If conditions are bad or you are not a good enough climber, just don't attempt to climb the Matterhorn. The problem is...making conservative decisions is absolutely no fun and is absolutely unlikely to impress anyone else. So people hire a professional not to make an obvious conservative decisions, let's call that a white decision. They also do not hire a professional to make an obvious decision when things are really bad (black decision). Those types of professionals are actually hired to play the gray area. Make a party on your yacht work even if the weather forecast is bad. Find a line of untracked powder, even if conservative avalanche methods would not allow you that. And so on. A captain or a guide can only lose in this game. Either they play conservative and lose the product they actually sell. Or they play the gray area to the limit until someone dies
The ships Captain was also in bed asleep . The person on watch at the time was not even the 2nd captain . So this person had to wake up the captain when wind hit 20knots , then the captain wakes up and then has to make decisions inckuding waking up the guests .
Mate, you've always made good videos but this one is a clinch. Every point spot on with the event, and very unbiased. A good lesson for this is how can we be ready-enough when the weather turns. Great video!
This accident should raise hairs on all sailors necks. I’ve experienced freak wind storms on Puget Sound, basically an enclosed canal-like waterway in western Washington state. Sudden weather changes happen often when you chose to sail in conditions that are CAVU, clear and visibility unlimited. In other words, when there is enough wind to have a great time actually sailing. You are quite apparently not completely safe when in a harbor either, if it is not protected from the wind. But a downburst has crashed commercial airliners. So, one encountered by a sailing vessel should be very concerning.
Being in the superyacht maintenance business in Mallorca for 35 years, I've worked on several Perini Navis and can testify that they are a well built vessels. I am surprised that the main rear saloon doors would open under gravity. This means whenever the yacht heeled on side would open ! That seems a little bizarre to me. I think most have powered doors and that I am almost certain that I have had occasion to repair the controls for these doors on a Perini in the past. I wonder if it had a power system for the doors that had failed and had been overridden as a temporary measure. This same storm that caused havoc on the Island of Formentera passed over Mallorca and Menorca, across northern Sicily where this sinking occurred and onto Greece, where it was still powerful enough to raise waterspouts. This storm passed over my house and the speed with which it rose was spectacular, from almost dead calm to full on storm in two minutes.
This boat and equipment was strong enough. I built a strong steel boat myself and sailed it around the world. The keel should never have been up, as its weight was augmenting the risk of capsizing. Despite the noise it is making when lowered down. These guests should have accepted this little discomfort or stay at home. I am alas disappointed that the skipper did not do its job by minimising the risks. At sea the risk is there , even if some guests think that they are in a floating palace. Ulric
@@steineru if the captain didn't do what the client wants, they get replaced with one who will. There's a reason the ultra wealthy get surrounded by yes men. Everybody else gets canned.
Great analysis. I live on an ocean beach in Mexico. I see the power of the ocean every time I walk on the beach. It never ceases to amaze me how the currents, tides, and waves rearrange the sand i.e. smooth one day the next day there is a three foot cliff. And last winter waves took down fifty yards of a steel pier.
The best video I found on the web about this disaster. As a recreational sailor myself I can not understand that a sail boat has been built with an angle of vanishing stability of less than 90° (whatever the keel configuration). Once on its side this boat would have plenty of time to get flooded. The crew could not do anything about it. Really dramatic...
Best video/article I’ve seen on this incident. I salvaged a lagoon 450 earlier this year that was dismasted by a f0/f1 tornado in Fort Lauderdale and imho they probably would have survived if they simply zipped their sailpack. Before that I’d leave my sailpack open all the time, now as soon as the sail comes down that pack gets zipped up. After watching this video I think I’m gonna start latching my cockpit lockers, even while at anchor. My Cape dory 33 can take a beating, but if I get knocked down on anchor like this, those lockers are gonna flood me real quick.
But As a long time yachtsman owner and crew of racing and cruising yachts from dingy to 73 footer anything other than a sailing dingy or human ballasted center-boarder should have at least 126 point of vanishing stability and NO Openings allowing down-flooding except 'narrow centerline access hatches. I would have designed Even a large super yacht with these features and air intake and exhaust funnels on center line only and thru raised snorkel. Several centerboard large wooden yachts ( with internal ballast only though,not in the centerboard )were lost in the late 1800 s yachting era,one at anchor near NY I think in the 1880s with the wealthy owners family on board her. A calm summer after noon interrupted by a fierce sudden thunder squall line.Tragic
It must have been a pain for the naval architect to build this boat as seaworthiness was so much compromised by luxury and comfort features. Taking water @46° as well as the AVS... This boat was not build as a seaworthy yacht, it was build as a floating party-zone with an enormous mast. An AVS of less then 90° means that it will stay down like a catamaran once inverted - absolutely incredible to me.
One of the most intelligent analysis I have seen, thank you. Super yachts, like super cars are amazing at many things but have trade offs. HVAC vents, gen set vents and exhausts can all be sealed automatically if flooding but the cockpit access interrupting the side decks is possibly significant but if she was knocked down she wouldn’t be floating on her topsides, the water would almost reach the centreline. Water would poor into the saloon area at a frightening rate and on to the stairs down to the guest quarters, the only immediate way out. Most tragedies come from a coming together of a series of small coincidences. The forecast for that night was nothing to worry about skipper of that kind of yacht, force 5 and localised thunderstorms. Microbursts out of the bottom of thunder clouds are impossible to detect without specialist radar found at some major airports but I feel sorry for the captain, maritime law is quite savage about who is ultimately responsible in cases of sinking.
I am ex crew on Superyachts. Guests are disturbed as a very last resort, sadly in this case, there would have been no hope for them once the yacht went on its side. If guests were hauled out of bed for every little bit of weather coming through, the captain would have been replaced probably with the rest of the crew. The crew who had obviously been called to muster, securing everything they could, survived, as did the 4 guests and tiny baby, and must have been thrown with force into the sea. In your video of the yacht blown over in NZ anybody on deck would have been lucky to survive being either thrown into the water, onto the dock or against the dock without serious injury. Ditto anyone inside. People actually survived in the Cat. Crews train for abandon ship, survival at sea (getting into a life raft etc). Unfortunately, when it all goes to **** it happens often, as in this case, in pitch dark, no lights once the yachts systems were destroyed by water, and no way for the poor guests to know where they really were and what to do. Their terror must have been beyond imagination. The crew cannot be blamed for them dying, it wasn't that they abandoned them, they were in the water before they themselves knew what was going on. I believe that one of the things that will happen when the inquiries are completed is that guests/owners will be mandated to attend a life safety drill and they must attend and sign that they have been shown and told what to do on every trip. How to get out of your cabin (very difficult if the floor is now the wall) How to put on a life jacket, how to hold the lifejacket if you have to jump so it doesn't break your nose, where to muster, how to listen to commands, how to get into the life raft if it is tethered to the sinking yacht. The yacht if still afloat is your best lifeboat ever rather than an emergency life raft. It is mandatory aboard aircraft and cruise ships and should be with passenger yachts. In my 15 years of seafaring this has NEVER happened. They arrive for a good time and get stuck into the champagne. The crew if it had been possible would have gone to get the guests, there is always a member of the interior crew tasked with this in emergency. By the time the Captain knew anything it was too late. All this nonsense I've read about portholes being opened is just that from people who know nothing about yachts nor have been on a big one. All windows etc are built into the superstructure and don't open. The yacht should have survived even with watertight compartments flooded. Tender garage doors would have been shut at the end of the day normally once the guests have said they are staying on board, with the tenders stowed. It is a sea faring tragedy of catastrophic proportions, loss of life and a marine disaster. The foundering of any yacht is just that. We may know eventually, given an honest court, that it was a sequence of events that led to major catastrophe in very very little time.
Look. If YOU don't wanna be "disturbed" on a sailboat (or any boat for that matter) your place is on shore. Yeah find another way to enjoy your life, the water is not for you.
@@leecowell8165 That is a ridiculous attitude. Luxury yachts sail the world over affording employment for many, and this is an exceptionally rare incident.
@@leecowell8165 Why the aggressiveness ? He spoke for the guests taht comes on these super luxury boats and he mentionned he was a crew and did all the training mandated. So what's your point attacking him ? Take your pills and go to sleep jeez.
Thank you for your insider-information! I've heard something similar somewhere else and couldn't quite believe it. And honestly, if they don't have their own aircraft they would accept wearing the safety-belt during take-off and landing wouldn't they? What makes them believe being on a yacht is something different? Yes, sure, in the meantime even production sailing boats in the smaller 60 - 80 foot class have become very popular for entertaining guests. They employ crews to deliver them to wherever they want the boat to be for their next party/business meeting/whatever. Friends of mine doing some of the deliveries sometimes pop up here for a fuelstop and a quick visit. Now, to get these boats as safely as possible from A to B they need to gaffer-tape every single sliding locker, the fridge, the last one had a sliding oven locker they had to keep in place with ropes. There is no lee-cloths of course, so the delivery crew drags the mattresses on the floor to be able to get a bit of rest when they are off watch on a passage. Now but that's only about the interior. Go up on deck and have a look! Not that the sailing-properties would be any good, but to work these ships under sail is half a nightmare. The deck isn't built for sailing, it is built for sunbathing and relaxing. The cockpit level with the saloon, and it's got the "necessary" fridge there! But try to handle the mainsheet, grab the speaker of the VHF or have access to the chatplotter and you're in trouble. Honestly, when they can get away with silly designs on superyachts, why blame the smaller siblings for doing the very same thing? And thank you for the info that actually people survived on this cat, this really looked very very bad!
As others have stated, my sincerest condolences to all the lives lost in this unnecessary tragedy. As a coastal sailor who has been forced to seek shelter on a number of occasions in makeshift bays and coves when a low pressure or gale unexpectedly shows up, I can sympathize and understand the terror those poor guests of the Bayesian experienced. I had to ride out a gale in a bay where I anchored as close to the shore as possible and that gave me the most amount of lee from the prevailing winds. Over the next 72 hours my boat would suddenly heel over dramatically whenever a gust hit it. The trees of the shoreline only provided lee for the first 40 feet of my mast. The remaining section of mast was exposed. The remaining mast was only maybe 10 feet and had a cross-sectional width of about 10 inches but that amount of exposure, coupled with the leverage of the height of that exposed mast section was all it took to tip the boat over alarmingly. I watched a clip of the mast installation on the Bayesian at a Majorraca boat yard this week. I couldn't believe how wide the mast is. That along with it's height would most certainly counteract any righting moment of the keel. Now, through this video I find that the keel was not in the lowered position. It seems this disaster will not be hard to solve how it occurred.
Nobody anchors with a swing keel down. It was not required with Bayesian. Those kind of keels always make a banging noise when there is any movement of the ship and would not be acceptable for that type of yacht. I am glad for Practical Sailor's information on the keel ballast, up until now I was unaware of much or any swing keel ballast at all, but obviously it was designed that way, though I find a 45 degree downflooding angle to be worrisome is that any different with other luxury sailing yachts?
@@westwoodframessigns1723 I used to sail an Alpha cat. 10’ beam and about 23’ mast. Saved capsize several times by disconnecting lee shroud and tacking so entire rig fell. Too bad there is no such option on big boats. Oh for the days when the mate could swing an axe and let the rigging go by the biard. Maybe the big boat guys should get a few battery powered side grinders?
Yours is the best explanation that I've seen or heard regarding the angle of vanishing stability on the Bayesian especially involving the keel. Thank you.
As with most disasters at sea, there are several contributing factors.. the yacht’s design with a tall mast and a retractable keel; the time of day, when guests were asleep; some very extreme and unexpected weather; and the fact that the boat was anchored with (perhaps) some open hatches or doors. I have sailed for many years and I am trying to learn from this event. The only lesson I can take.. is when there is any unpredictable weather, quickly make the decision to secure the hatches and companionway. - this comment is respectfully submitted with prayers for the victims and their families.
Even if all the hatches and doors were closed, were starting to get info that the design of the boat had some design features that let water flood in when the boat is healing at an angle. Plus the air conditioning vents allow flooding
@@macpduff2119 For that stuff to sinsk like that, you need more than vents openings, you need a huge gash, or everything was opened. Alternatively the water density changed. Sinking so fast if the boat was dealt with reasonably well is impossible. I though the keel was responsible, but the boat didn't bulk apparently.
Thanks for this, Tim, and your comments are appreciated.. Unfortunately this whole affair seems to be attracting far too much unwarranted, ignorant and unprofessional comment. As a pilot I have experienced flying through a downburst and it is an experience very much to be remembered. As a sailor, the builder should at least have the grace to shut up until a professional inquiry submits its findings. Is she maintained to Class? Surely someone in the Class Society looked at the downflooding angle vs the angle of vanishing stability? Who did the Plan Approvals? And maybe it would have been a good idea to produce some emergency procedures to overcome what looks like a design defect? It is most unfair to start blaming the crew at this point.
It will be interesting to see how different Bayesian's downflooding angle is from other similar luxury yachts, I suspect about the same. Obviously for a typical "slapdown", it would not have been as dangerous a situation as a sustained heeling such as the downburst created, and a very unusual situation. It's hardly imaginable that such a boat could have been knocked down so far and for so long.
@JonElliott= You are the first person I see asking the question of Class. As I understand it, obtaining a Certificate from a Classification Society is not an obligation for sailboats, but the insurance companies may ask for it if the sailboat is as big as Bayesian was. I'd be grateful if someone in the know could state if Bayesian was certified. Two Societies come to mind: RINA, from the country of the Builder; Lloyd's, from the country of the Flag.
I'd bet they saw "Perini Navi" on the CAD file, her size, and gave it a Class A. Class A is only 40 knots and waves over 13 feet, snyhow. An extremely common blue water day.
Hello Captain and BZ for the amazing analysis. My take on that is that the excessive comforts, the size of modern boats and the modern technological conveniences, lead us to relax against the elements of nature witch, by te way, the last years has become very extreme and unpredictable. The last part of your video after 09:30 is a big lesson for all the future sailors!!
To give a little context: there is a lot of mention of a 75m mast as if this is somehow a reasonable thing. I'm a rigger and a mast like this is almost inconceivable. Take the largest rig ever fitted to the Cutty Sark (about 4x the displacement) and it's that tall plus ANOTHER 30m or 100 feet. When you see these boats for real they look like a distortion of reality.
As someone who worked as a survey technician on ships and experienced North Sea storms, Med. storms, Atlantic storms and sailed from UK to Madeira in a 11m yacht all I can say is "Don't".
@@reccerecce1sure. If all the hatches were closed, the vents shut down, the sliding glass doors locked with the pins. Then the 77deg angle would apply (which is still crazy low, but I guess it’s not a regular sailboat and doesn’t do regular sailboat stuff)
@muenchk 88° with the keel down which you would normally do for sailing. But I still wouldn't go offshore in it. My boat is an inshore boat but it will recover from having the top of the mast touch the water. And with her high & wide gunwales she can float on her side without shipping water in the cockpit. Her only weakness is the size of the cockpit drains. If you had a large wave or downpour fill the cockpit without the main hatch board in place you could get water in the cabin. But it'd take multiple waves or a massive downpour to sink her.
As a professional mariner for over forty five years when something looks out of place it usually is. The extreme height of the mast in a downdraft or microburst would have extreme lever forces trying to overcome her center of gravity, most vessels can survive such incidents if down flooding does not occur. The cascading of events will usually cause the demise of the vessel.
Tragic sinking. Many, many things to learn from any accident. The biggest irony is the yacht was named for Bayesian statistics, which is based on Bayes' theorem. This uses new information to update knowledge about statistical model parameters using observed data. We now have new observed data to show the previous models estimating that the design was safe have to be updated… Tragically ironic.
i also looked up the word Bayesian when i first heard that it had sunk. It was so ironic indeed something considering who the owner was, poetic justice going on there. maybe they should not have had her original name changed esp if they couldn't find a virgin to do the honors
To quote you “it all adds up to disaster.” For me, the sinking is not unlikely, though all we sailors would like to think so. With a down flooding angle of only 45°, the giant cockpit, and saloon doors that don’t stay closed, I call that a likely scenario for sinking. Not even a safe coastal cruiser in my opinion, those facts/statistics are scary.
Yeah, that seems almost like malpractice on the part of the naval architect. So in terms of stats, that would yield a capsize rating of, what, about 4.8? I would be interested to find out who it was that decided to anchor there, the captain? or the owner so they could be closer to...whatever? Still, if you're hit by a random willy-waw, good luck.
@@mcrumph it would be a high capsize ratio for sure, but with a righting moment of 88° keel down, I don’t think I’m going off shore in that boat… or one like it.
A superb investigation and conclusions. I read at the inception of the report of this tradgedy that they bragged the boat had the tallest mast of any that sailed. TY for the text. Soooo much information.
Better design rules . This boat was living on borrowed time if it sinks at 45 degrees. I don’t know how they get a certificate of seaworthiness. For a boat like this , doors hatches and vents should automatically close and seal if the boat tilts beyond a certain point.
@@richardvivian3665 But what would happen to everyone on top deck? Or are you saying if doors hatches & vents automatically closed then vessel would not tilt any further or "sink"?? Still doesn't fit with downpour (I never heard of waterspout before so glad now know what it is) - been on board ships 3 times for weeks at a time years ago & thrown around in bunk like a rag doll feeling helpless & seasick but praying for Captain & crew navigating wide open sea with only darkness around - so so scary - no wish to repeat that experience - feel very sad for everyone affected 💔!
Many ship disasters have resulted in subsequent rule changes - think of Titanic boat capacity. So in this case. These boats often seek a place to anchor in adverse weather. Perhaps most of the design requirements are focussed on sailing, and less on non-sailing (anchored, moored). Additionally also the state-of-readyness needs to be more sharp. Many passive measures, such as keel-down (weather forecast), watertight doors closed, vents closed - some of this perhaps spring-operated (not gravity). The tradeoff being passenger safety vs. perceived comfort. By the way, this boat have watertight compartements which could not be compromizes (only access from deck, not below deck).
I don't know about doors and hatches, but those air conditioning vents on the side of the hull should've had backflow preventors to keep sea water out in high seas. On the Bayesian they are surprisingly low relative to the waterline. I believe WWII diesel submarines had backflow preventers when snorkeling to charge their batteries.
That was the first time I heard about the ships stability range and ballast , to me seems as though sailing it in very much weather even with the keel down a freak gust in a squall would lay it over an sink it if you weren't really on the ball and shortening sail early , I can't think of a single boat I have owned over the last 60 years that at some point the mast didn't touch water . Great video Thx for it
THANK YOU This is the very first time i’ve seen the first footage of the boat flipping over then the Bayesians hall going down and up again. it is much more clear then the other footage you showed after. which it the only one i thought was out there. and i’ve been watching everything ..different channels etc since this happened. i wonder why people aren’t showing this footage. it’s so much better. thank you ❤️🇨🇦
Totally concur, best explanation I’ve seen. Regarding the weather forecast , media said there was a storm warning, a prominent UK oceanographer said the forecast was Beaufort Force 6 to 7 for that night ( near gale) , 33 kts of wind and of course local fishermen wouldn’t go out in those conditions, but I’m sure on a yacht that size that would not signal any huge danger to the craft. Unfortunate tragedy, may they all rest in peace.
Having lived through one of these freak storms in August 2022 in Corsica myself, I know how quickly it can happen. Our luck was that it was daylight. But we got knocked down 90 degrees twice. We finally got out of it even though the engine quit while struggling due to a line in the prop! Visibility was less than 50 meters for quite a while. Very scary.
they are not freak storms. they are very normal for the med, especially in the summer. People sometimes treat the med as a lake when it fact it can be more "dangerous" than an ocean.
You were NOT in a swing keeled boat with a 240 foot mast either! You were at worst in a fin keeled boat but perhaps even in a long keeled boat. Years ago I crewed for a coupla years with whom I thought was a crazy captain at the time in the NE Atlantic but this was on long keeled double ended 40 foot steel ketch where sometimes this guy dragged the boom in the water! I mean there were DAYS on a tight reach whereby the leeside ports were looking at the fishee's even the gimbled births (yeah gimbled) were banging on their stops at times. He didn't care! This boat I heard was around the horn it was built in NZ in the 30's I bet its still floating somewhere what a tank! it had a real small center cockpit but sported inside steering and the only water that coulda got in there were through the line holes. Lastly he absolutely hated using the engine. It only drew about 5 feet though (probably because the keel was almost as long as the boat). We careened it once in the Bay of Fundy. We were there for a week cleaning off the barnacles they had to be at least 3cm thick! that Bay of Fundy is scary! Look around for a waterfall realizing all it was is the tide coming in or going out. jeez! Capt was definitely crazy BUT he could use a sextant... even at night. yeah a smart crazy. Never forgot him always smiling and would climb the masts like monkey. This boat was hairy to dock because it wasn't very maneuverable... mostly anchored or moored.
@@LiveFromLondon2 Get the facts, or the facts get you! Headline: "Violent storm kills six on Corsica as island raises new alert" and "Hail, heavy rain and winds peaking at 224 km per hour (140 mph) swept the island early in the day. Two of the victims were killed when trees fell in campsites." You call this a ‚regular storm‘ from your armchair? 🤡
So, the knockdown in the video is at least 80 degrees and there is no reason whatsoever to believe that Bay didn't experience any less knockdown force. 80 degrees (or?) vs 45 degrees? This is not complicated. Her unique definition of stability (more like a motor yacht than a sailing vessel) vs very high wind followed by a microburst direct hit was simply beyond the design's ability to resist. Had the crew enjoyed foreknowledge AND done everything perfectly in response, perhaps the boat could have been saved - 20/20 hindsight we call that. Not unlike the tragic DC10 crash in Chicago, where a reverse engineering of the crash lead to a conclusion that the pilots could have saved the plane by specific actions, none of which were in the book.
Just to say it's not just racing yachts that have AVS of 120-130°; almost all sailing yachts have AVS of this level. Even Southerly yachts which have a ballast shoe attached to the hull with a ballasted centreboard have a board up AVS of 120°.
What I always do after such events is ask myself what would have I done? The crew had full confidence in their vessel. Undoubtedly the yacht that size would feel like a safe and secure vessel. No sailor would consider a sailing yacht with a 45 degree least angle a safe sailing vessel. I have been knocked down with my mast in the water in the Med... My 30 foot Moody had no problem righting her self .. That is what I would expect from a sailing yacht. However I don't think the crew or the Captain were aware of such a possibility. With all honesty who of us here knows the boundaries of the least of our vessel? A luxury yacht of that size at anchor? Would any other crew shut all hatches? Close A. C vents? Lock compania doors and get all gusts in to life jackets? Waiting for a freak wether phenomenon that no one could imagine? Regarding the design? We will all have to wait for the inquiry.. However any yacht should be able to suffer a knock down and right it self.
It seems to me this was an exhibition rig, rather than a proper ocean sailing yacht. Priority was given to airconditioning and engine ventilation through the hull sides, on a hull that couldnt right from a knockdown. It was bound to sink eventually in a circumstance (a knockdown) that is not unusual enough to be ignored by the designer. All the bleating about " who could have predicted this weather event" or "it was crew error" dont change the angle of vanishing stability or the downflooding angle. And before blaming the designer consider that he was being paid to deliver a showboat above all else. Where I would critiscuse the designers/builder is promoting the idea that the boat is unsinkable. Saying stuff like that gets people killed. Personally I think a proper yacht should take a knockdown in its stride without taking on water.
it ( the boat ) was nothing short of a 5-star that's for sure but in reality, it was simply a show pony bought by a big moneybag with more money than he knew what to do and in the blink of an eye all gone man and his besties the unholy trinity A BUSINESSMAN, BANKER,AND A LAWYER are all on the same boat at the same time they win their court case but in doing so they ended up dancing with the devil when the music finishes the grim reaper is summoned he comes and claims his winnings
So it sounds like the CEO who said it was unsinkable was right. If the ship was completely buttoned up and unuseable as a guest bearing yacht, it wouldn't sink. Kind of like saying a car is incapable of being in a fatal accident if the wheels are removed and the doors are welded shut.
Hardly. Shutting down the engine and air conditioning for a few hours would not render the vessel "unusable as a guest bearing yacht". Your comparison of "welding doors shut and removing the wheels" is absurd.
Perini Navis operating instructions for the keel are that it should always be kept in the upright position - because of the noise it creates - unless actually sailing or navigating over 60 miles from shore. Most large yachts of this pattern have similar operating protocols for a lifting keel.
@@UguysRnuts They're in the standard operating procedures for these Perini Navi vessels to reduce noise for the guests - the keel bangs about a bit, disturbing sleep particularly at night. Most large lifting keel boat manufacturers issue the same protocols. Read the manuals .....
@@ourfarmhouseinspain Listen again. The board was up because "the crew" found it quieter. NOT because of ANYTHING in the "manual" which YOU have NOT read either despite your insinuation.. This is the only Perini Navi of this design with a lifting keel.
There is not a media outlet on this planet that would or could do a better job explaining this tragedy. Our media sucks and this guy is great. Thank you for your efforts and expertise.
if she starts taking water @ 45º, she is NOT a sail boat, she is a power vessel, any sail boat that dosent upright @ 90º should not be classed as a sail vessel.
So if water poured down from above (waterspout) onto the yacht which was unforeseen, how could anyone have stopped it from flooding irrespective of "open" hatches? Any suggestions?
One point not mentioned about the tornado that flipped the 50 foot catamaran and knocked down the superyacht... this event happened in a packed marina and other vessels just metres away were not affected at all. The freak wind gusts covered an area only about 50 metres wide, lasted a short period of time and could not be seen coming.
I've been in similar situations with a tornado 15m from my boat. The effects are not isolated. A superyacht on the hard at the time got knocked off its stands. Everyone within the bay would have felt it. You can also tell by looking at the video of the boat going down
I was in a marina tied to a dock with a line in the water at the bow. The storm was all night thus the boat keeling over all night with the gusts but when the tornado touched down at the end of the dock it was enough to push my boat over about 45 degrees but my Keel is about half the weight of the boat thus rights quickly. I was concerned with masts getting caught up in a tight marina. What I'm trying to say is a tornado doesn't just appear suddenly, the weather will warn us of a storm storm and will progressively get worse or better. The crew were warned of a storm, enough to keep fishermen from going out. Here in the med, we know any storm can be sudden and violent, but there is at a minimum a lead up to it enough to prepare.
Awesome report. Pretty horrified at the rush to blame the crew by the company than owns the manufacturers, but then they have an invested interest for it not to be the design of the boat.
25 yrs experience at sea 1. Bad weather was expected secure vessel before bad weather arrives. 2. Lower keel increasing stability by increasing GM and GZ lever. 3. Inform guests of weather to be expected raise there level of alertness with out causing panic. 4. Have engine ready to start if required 5. Check anchorage pay out more chain consider raising anchor and avoid weather entirely. 6. Close all WT doors hatches, open freeing ports, check scupper are clear. 7. Reduce free surface effect in tanks if possible. 8. Ensure bridge is manned by qualifed officers, write night orders and brief all crew of the situation. The vessel that rolled over in the video came back to the upright position very quickly she would of taken on water as she heeled way past her angle of downflood. She returned to the upright because she had reserve buoyancy, positive stability and a positive GZ lever. Bayesian did not hence she sank.
@@AORD72 These yachts are built to client specification, often those specifications are not conducive to safety. The builder can advise the client of risks associated with design decisions, if the client disregards the risks then the builder can refuse to build the yacht and lose a huge contract or build it anyway…. This yacht was compliant with the regulations - Just… The problem is with the industry not just the yacht.
@@LiveFromLondon2 There is no evidence that the captain did anything unusual or wrong at this point, it is impossible to make such a condemnation by any rational person.
i too have given that some mighty ponderings there would have been bedsheets towels all getting tangled up clothes shoes finest food just a floating hell hole.the weath it took with it down to the bottom of the deep blue sea now its worthless fit only for salvage. who knows some day they may make a movie or Netflix series if so they should give the profits to the real heroes of this disaster to the divers who did due diligence and retrieved all human remains and to those who helped in the search I SALUTE YOU.
When I boat goes down that quickly , it is not what the crew did do or did not , .........that is design flaws While the mast design was described as "robust and well controlled," the fact that it required special considerations in the yacht's overall design and operation indicates it was indeed pushing the limits of what was technically feasible for aluminum mast construction at the time.
the weather report for that night wouldn't have really alarmed anyone most likely but the captain of the boat that came to help did all the right things to avoid the sinking of his vessel. had the captain of Bayesian done the same the boat may not have sunk. why did the captain not start the engines, turn the boat into the wind, close the doors and windows and lower the keel when the weather started coming on strong? the other captain did when weather hit. also, the design of the Bayesian does not seem very forgiving and "unsinkable" if it has many openings and doesn't do well past 45 degrees. such a tragic event. very informative video, thanks!
When you are at anchors you are upwind, you don't need the motor to achieve this. It was a different circumstance for the yacht shown in the video in NZ which was at dock.
the weather report for that night was enough to keep the fishermen in harbour. Indeed, being experienced sea-farers they most likely could smell the storm.
50 years sailing and a deck officer by trade. Accidents often occur when 3 or more minor events or acts combine to produce disaster, as seems to be the case here. I'm always planning ahead and mitigating risks. A large glass of water at dawn, food eaten before seasickness sets in, life jackets and harnesses ready before the weather turns foul, all crew can call a position on channel 16 etc etc. The best part of sailing/boating is that there is always something new to learn, so any troubles are analyzed and discussed to understand and implement anything that could reduce risks. In this case, any of the things that likely contributed to sinking - keel up, doors open, vents not closed - alone would not have resulted in such a rapid sinking. Combined they did. It's always better to over prepare, which can be done without crew/passengers really noticing, than under prepare. Very good video and thanx for no sound track. I'll remember the lesson of leaving the boat in a hurricane so thanx for that.
The Westhaven clip shows that excessive windage on a large mast, with nothing else up, can flatten a yacht and Bayesian's mast was the biggest in the world when built.
Good review and summing up. The keel being up is a real problem. 10 degrees less AVS is a big deal. If the airco was working, it would be expected that doors and hatches were shut. The self opening glass doors however need to be regulated.
If a single person looking for a new boat... pocket cruiser to superyacht... pays attention to the deadly design choices made here, all the stories about this sinking are worthwhile.
esysman super yacht news has the best reporting on this sinking. bayesean also has cutaways to the the bulwarks at the aft cockpit as a design "feature" which would allow water ingress when she was not even at her point of vanishing stability.
🤔 Tim, this tragedy was well researched and explained. Your thoughts and experience on conservative seamanship and decision making are well appreciated. Practical Sailor chose very well when the brought you aboard taking advantage of your decades of both racing & cruising. Some topics which would be interesting to cover in the future are: 1) The relative merits of in-mast vs in-boom furling systems. 2) A comparison of the major wind vane configurations and manufactures. (Cape Horn, Hydro Vane, etc). 3) A comparison of the various sail plans: Marconi, Gaff Rigged, Junk Rigged, and Lateen. Since these four rig’s have withstood the test of time it would be an interesting topic because we in the west are Marconi oriented and don’t know much about other rig philosophies. Wave Rover II, a 21’, Jun Rigged SV, for example is in the midst of a Trans-Atlantic crossing as I write this and is currently in 12-15’ seas due to having the wind in opposition to the Gulf Stream (a rough ride, but handling it well). Sailing Emerald Steel has been build, maintained and sailed continuously by Jules & Suzy for the past thirty years as a steel Gaff-Rigged SV. They have both circumnavigated and sailed in both “High & Low latitudes. I’ve perhaps written too much, Tim, but I value your balanced and even approach to discuss the “pros & cons” of all things sail and location related. Thank you for your voice. 👏 👍.
Not only a floodable rear cockpit opening into the salon, but also a huge floodable cockpit at the base of the mast. That's tons of water at deck-level flooding below decks. Perini Navi CEO is whistling in the dark...and consulting lawyers.
Ultimately, one yacht sank and the other survived in the same conditions. One, a 1957 schooner with a solo crew old school captain. Who pulled anchor and made ready. The other with 10 crew who ran around at the last minute to stow deck furniture. …….
He wasn't a solo crew and he didn't pull the anchor up. The thing he did was to start the engine in forward gear as we all do to release the strain on the chain and anchor in the dear hope it will help to keep the anchor from dragging (= losing it's hold on the seabed). Most of the times this works, and we are always begging it will, but sometimes Nature is too strong and it doesn't. Concerning the other part of your post: you haven't been out there on the boat, have you? How can you possibly claim a professional crew would behave like this?
Irrelevant comment in the circumstances, including for one, that the schooner might not have got hit as badly, and if heeled right over past 45 degrees, was almost certainly more water-tight..
Another channel showed video of one of Bayesian's sister ships where 3 crew were trying to secure the sliding door in rough weather as it kept slamming open and shut. One crew member had at least one finger mashed as they struggled to secure it.
Yes, and I forgot to add, there is no way any of the crew is to blame. Instead they should be commended for saving the lives they did in such an adverse and rapid scenario. Kudos for keeping their cool and tending to the task at hand, saving who they could.
Still intriguing and nobody should make conclusions. The Captain probably was aware, but having the owner onboard with his own priorities could be a challenge.
Let me add some more insight on the design, I watched a detailed discussion with a designer who knows this boat. First off, Bayesian was not designed as a pure sailing vessel. Think of it more as a motor-sailer. It's stability characteristics are much more like a powerboat than a typical sailboat. This is done for comfort for guests/owners. To me, sticking such a tall mast on this design is a flaw. The windage from that massive mass and rig is significant at that height. Second thing. The boat is well engineered but ultimately bult for comfort as the zillionaires who can afford a 40 million sailing yacht with 10 crew expect luxury and convenience. This is why those damned awful sliding class doors are used even though they had problems on each boat that had them. Cuz it looks cool and is functional. And of course, AC is a must, the vessel has massive generators/alternators on the engines to power a luxury lifestyle. So of course ample ventilation is required. All of these decisions is how one ends up with this boat having a 60meter mast but basically an awful stability profile. The idea that the designer isn't at fault boggles my mind. Put it this way. If I had commissioned this design and the marine architect gave me those stats on stability I'd have scrapped the design and found another designer. As well, how could a boat builder ever agree to build such a flawed vessel? Be clear, this boat was built to withstand 'normal' sailing conditions but can't handle a knockdown? All sailboats will get knocked down at some point. Fyi, that's all that happened here - a knockdown. Very severe one, no doubt, but still. Watch the Westhaven clip he showed of that other sailboat getting knocked down and righting itself. Don't agree? Let me put it this way. This boat will sink like a stone every time it takes a real knock down. It's designed to sink in this way. There is no way to safely survive a knockdown in this boat. Fyi, I'm not a pro. But I do have all my USSA sailing certs for cat/mono, did a bunch of racing, and was a yacht broker for a while. I even studied a little marine architecture but be clear, I'm not an expert. Just experienced. I imagine that that Master of this yacht must have been briefed on the boats stability parameters. This would, at a minimum, call for extra vigilance in any storm. The crew/master is at fault in a serious way in that the Master and two other trained seamen on the yacht should have understood this vulnerability. The fact that pushes me in this direction is that a nearby yacht saw the weather as serious enough to get underway and prepare for a big storm - in the same anchorage. Of course they cannot foresee a downspout like that. But their boat is LESS STABLE than almost all other sailboats. Why on earth wouldn't SOP be a super cautious procedure when a known, serious storm is approaching. Let me make it even clearer. They had a less safe boat but took less safety precautions than boats that were more stable in the same exact anchorage and weather. This is a clear error by the trained crew. Also be clear, while it was a super yacht, it wasn't a motor yacht. On a sailboat, guests/owners know there are more considerations. The idea that it was such bad form to rally the passengers and get the boat headed into the wind with everything battened down is silly. Also note the boat had water tight sections, and could survive with two sections flooded. This means it's very likely that watertight hatches were open. As well, note none of the passengers stuck deep in the boat seemed to know where the emergency exits were. Was there a thorough safety briefing for the passengers? All of this is crew failure. Seems to me we can conclude the following. The designer built a boat that can't handle a knock-down, but the crew sailed it like it could...Both are at fault.
The captain and crew were up on deck at those wee hours going through their normal preparations. But the boats design was so vulnerable to a capsize in severe weather that warnings should have been posted in every passenger cabin.
Were you on board? Have you ever experienced a "waterspout" as well as bad windy weather? If not, save the explanations - lessons hopefully to learn from this type of event especially by "designers"?
Point into the wind? How on earth do we know from what direction this waterspout or downspout -- or whatever the freak thing was that sank this boat -- was coming?
The yacht fails the eyeball test-too much mast too little boat-The design was flawed.No boat should be so poorly designed that it sinks 16 minutes after being heeled over-at anchor-1 km offshore. Getting tipped like that is a completely predictable occurrence-Even amateurs can see the problem.
You got it. It is easily the most obvious issue to me too. It's going to be interesting to see what the investigators come up with. Anything else would be extremely interesting to say the least.
@@DavidTangye thats because you are a clueless. Or a bot trying to change the narrative. The captain and crew were fucking useless and 7 people died because of that.
Swing keel, sloop design. HUGE cockpit. HUGE mast (due to sloop design on a huge sailboat). This thing should have 2 or even 3 masts to lower the mast height along with sporting a long keel. Most ocean going sailboats have relatively small cockpits with big scuppers along with long keels. No way you'd catch me asleep on a boat like this below deck. Another advantage of a long keel is relatively shallow draft and well protected rudders. Even in the event of a knockdown that results in a demast the boat itself will still recover. What a lousy design!
An unforeseen down burst, is an event of incalculable odds. I saw a carpenter standing inside a house being built loose his eye when a carpenter out side nailing plywood missed the stud . Hitting the carpenter inside . That is an incalculable event. My heart goes out to all .
Every ship is designed for a specific purpose. This ship represented maximum size and luxury. large sliding doors that are designed to impress. Wide companionways on the outside to quickly and easily get inside. All factors that contribute to uncertainty and instability. The old ship nearby was able (The captain has definitely assigned an anchor watch. Is mandatory) to detect the storm in the middle of the night, start the engine and keep the ship safe. They cleared a dinghi and launched a rescue operation. That's what I call seamanship. The crew on the Bayesian were passengers. There ist nothing they could do.
While starting the engine might have helped stop or slow anchor drag, I cannot see how it would have helped if that boat were also hit by the downburst. As I understand it, Bayseian also had an anchor watch but this kind of information will only come out during the inquiry.
@@RayThackeray Sir Robert Baden Powell was built as a stout ocean-going ship in 1957 with a design that had proven it's seaworthiness over decades - remember, 1957 was about the time that the area of the big sailing-ships transporting cargo around the world ended, because they couldn't compete any more with the steamships who were taking over their business. There is no such thing as a ship that cannot sink, and of course there is no guarantee that she would have survived. But, to place it very carefully, her design is less focused on luxury and appearance but instead on utility, practical use and seaworthiness. I don't have access to any detailed data of her apart from what is stated in her public AIS file (overall length 42 m, beam 6.50 m, length of the hull without bowsprit 32 m, draught 3 m and gross tonnage 111), a drawing of her lines on the website of the company who operates the vessel and a few photos on internet. While this is in itself is certainly not enough information to claim something about her abilities, my experience as a sailor, liveabord and someone who had to do an incredible amount of research concerning design, stability and boatbuilding to rebuild my own ketch with all the documentation lost, tells me: The shape of her hull is very well capable to take a knockdown, her schooner-rig is kept moderate in height to reduce windage in adverse conditions (but will not allow her to be able to sail to her full potential), her longkeel makes for relaxed behavior on long passages in bad weather, and unless someone accidentally made an error in calculating the amount of ballast in her keel she should easily pop back up from a heeling angle of at least 130 degrees. The layout of her deck is of the classical kind, built to prevent water from getting into the ship. If I had to decide which vessel I would prefer to be on, the Sir Robert Baden Powell - IMHO - did stand a better chance to resist and survive what was coming.
While I agree with you that the crew of the Bayesian didn't have the tiniest chance to prevent or avert what happened no matter what they tried, I don't think using the word "passengers" is very suitable.
@@andreasbacher2695 Which supports the notion that the freak weather condition was not simply a powerful "storm" but something acted in a way that could not have been anticipated.
A salient comment - my guess is that it probably took the force of a 200kt wind or more. I have a 97' steel ketch and have been caught by an unexpected sustained 80-knot wind under all plane sail yet still did not heel more than about 25 degrees, so I know what it feels like!
@@RayThackeray irrelevant. Baynsian had a massive mast. Your launch is not even a yacht - no mast to speak of. Look again at the video of the yacht under bare poles being struck by a decent gust here in Westhaven Marina (NZ). It was unlikely to have been much more than 70 -80 knots, IMO, perhaps even a little less. That's enough.
@@DavidTangye I very much doubt a 70-80 knot wind would knock down a vessel with such huge ballast. My "launch" is only 100 tons and yes a lot smaller than Beyesian but these things are scalable.
This has an antecedent. The yacht MOHAWK did the same thing in 1875, also killing owner and his wife and others and crew. That boat too had a centerboard in up position. Was at anchor with sails set. Maiden voyage. Squall. About same lenght but schooner rigged. Moral: keep the board down, carry only min sail if board down, secure ballast. Keep hatches closed unless righting moment is high for possible conditions. And if you have a piano in the saloon as did Mohawk, keep it bolted to the cabin floor so it doesn’t fall onto your wife.
For the money spent, I feel the owners deserved a more thought out boat. It’s a shame that a huge sum of money paid and builders did not build it smarter. No way is it practical to think doors will be locked in place throughout and every vent closed while at anchor. Shameful. People are told to shut up, don’t ask questions, cover ups, and regulators wanting to move on quickly . Look into the tall ship Pride of Baltimore. All these tall ships , too many designed by the same blow hard designer. I recently asked for stability information on the Kalmar Nyckel. I was called stupid, told to mind my own business and worse. This is the attitude and culture that is getting people killed. The Kalmar was designed by the same guy that designed the Baltimore. It’s doomed if they ever put sails up at sea. So far it looks like they sail only under motor.
I think part of the problem is the owners demanding the tallest mast, the biggest doors, etc. The builders need to say no despite losing a 300 million contract. Not easy.
beorbeorian: Do you know why the mast of bayesian needed to be designed that tall? -- 200 feet+ high mast seems absurd....It is significant that a similar yacht at anchor (with engines running) nearby, with a much less tall mast, survived the downburst blast of wind vortex....and did not heel over....
Beorbeorian , thanks for mentioning the Pride of Baltimore, I had immediately thought of them when I heard of the situation in Sicily, I just couldn't remember the Pride of Baltimore's name. If I remember correctly, I may not I as I too am no longer a young sailor.
@@LiveFromLondon2and you have proof of this I assume? Please share… Obviously only a total @$$ would accuse a professional crew of incompetence without strong evidence.
Very good analysis and explanations as to the probable cause of this tragedy. The footage from Westhaven Marina in New Zealand should be highlighted distinctly so as not to cause confusion with the actual event (but it is the closest example of extreme weather tipping a yacht). Appreciate your expertise however and succinct delivery.
The figures I saw, can't recall where, gave the ballast at 200 tons with 60 tons in the swing keel and a displacement of 485 tons. Thats not a low ballast ratio for such a large vessel. The fact that she was sailing for some 17 years without exceeding 45 degrees attests that she was well ballasted. However the 45 degree downflooding angle blows my mind. Even if you _really_ want to place vents outboard how hard can it be to engineer automatic failsafes into those (ie to admit air but not water)? As for the storm. There's no predicting that. In another clip's comments somebody very confidently wrote "boats don't sink at anchor". In that same storm you showed footage of another keelboat in that marina was lifted out of the water despite being tied to a pier, dragged across the powerboat in the next berth, dropped back on the pontoon, holed and sunk. Was that boat's crew at fault?
Great video! As the owner of an aging 45' racer, I'm just flabbergasted by all the GLASS surrounding that big open salon in Bayesian's main cabin! And that was protected by a sliding glass door??? The sliding glass door on my condo leaks whenever a tropical storm or hurricane blows rain directly into it, so how could something like that ever survive submersion? Then if it just slid open on its own when the boat heeled... well, that's pretty-much the story, isn't it? Yes, the weather was extreme, and yes, the crew should have lowered the keel since they had the depth for it, but that door design is almost as silly as screen doors on a submarine. Tragic too to hear about the furniture sliding around and (presumably) blocking the passengers' escape. They did know this was a sailboat, right? EVERYTHING should be bolted down!
Towards the end of the summer ( after mid august ) the weather in the Med is known to be potentially dangerous because of the higher temperature of the sea. This year in particular, temperatures of the Med have been reported to be 3°C above the normal average ( due to climate change ). A similar event struck the island of Formentera a couple of days before. More than a dozen boats were pushed ashore from their anchorage ( among which a Wally racing maxi belonging to Armani ).
why not just cut and paste your entire reply!!! the storm crossing the med from west to east was huge. started i thin on Tuesday. Battered Ibiza (and formentera), then Mallorca and Menorca, swirled back west for a while, picked up more power, headed east, and dropped its load as it neared the italian coast. Nothing whatsoever unusual about it. Spectacular but not unusual.
Thank you for a factual review - woking forward to more insights as the facts appear from you, looking at it at the universeal spiritual level forces of nature.
Crews just don't train for situations like this. Guest/owners don't want to hear about, much less train for, conditions or events of this magnitude. Keep the owner happy or don't work here. I have never trained for a GTFO situation (with passengers) even in school. I know every captain has passengers/crew/boat/other boat same order drilled into them, but who has ever talked to someone who has experienced this kind of event? The crew may know how to survive when the SHTF, but the passengers not so much without help. On a big yacht or cruise ship, they tend to isolate the crew from the guests which is not good for the guests when they need the crew in an emergency. Once the crew is off the boat, it is really every man for himself, because there is really no way to get back until the vessel has sunk enough that you'd be crazy to goo back. Minimal crewing on yachts is another subject that causes yachts to be unsafe when s@#t happens.
When I read the reports how fast the ship went down, I didn't believe it is possible to sink a good designed sail boat that fast. But then you get the size of the mast, the first thing coming to mind is, yeah, that is a "Mine is Bigger than Yours" design. Not sure I would dare to go blue water with a ship having a down flooding angle of 45 degrees and a freakishly tall mast... if that is correct, I wouldn't call that a sailing vessel in the first place, is Designer crap.... a batten down ship shouldn't sink that fast. I ended with my 71 schooner in a hurricane on a Atlantic crossing and had only drops of water inside the ship when we were changing gear after shift. Wasn't fun.. but also never felt in danger. Had my money on design flaws from the start, sinking a ship of that size in such a small time frame should be impossible.
This is the most comprehensive analysis of the accident that I have seen. Thank you so much. You provide the engineering drawings and specifications that support intuitive conclusion.
and you are a bot.
I agree wit you. Thank you for writing.
Excellent analysis and presentation! I think that the Bayesian may also have been handicapped by pushing the limits of design of a single masted sailing vessel too far. Technology in the future may be able to address these limitations, especially from what’s learned in this disaster. However, there’s always the human element that resists error proofing as we’ve learned from many disasters, including the Titanic. And finally, as you mentioned, there’s always the one percent freaks of nature that can deep six any vessel. The best we can hope for from this disaster is that designers and sailors alike can learn something from it.
Agreed. The most thorough and thoughtful prognosis I’ve read on this sad event.
Best report on the subject anywhere, Thank you
@@jstmv When Captains take the Yachtmaster course, they go into “center of gravity” like it was an MIT class.
the report is a bit boring.
the authors just try to stay on the safe side, at some point you need to take a position, otherwise what's the point.
My favorite here is eSysman, on yachting channels, sth like that.
he also stays neutral, but he talks his own opinion.
this gentleman here just seems to be a speaker.
The PSYCHOLOGY of the situation would be another interesting point besides the obvious compromises in the ship's design: when I sail with my family, friends or charter guests, waking them up at 5 AM and instructing them to put on their life vests is different from waking up a multi-billionaire super-boss, his business partners and top-notch lawyers after a late party when they have a good dose of alcohol in their blood. These types of people usually don't like being bossed around. As captain you probably even think twice about turning off the air conditioning and closing the vents to avoid risking your job. If such an alarm turns out to be exaggerated the next morning, the captain almost certainly will lose his job.
I can imagine that the psychological pressure on the captain and crew of these luxury yachts is enormous: the guests want to have fun, party, relax & drink and have as much interest in learning about life-saving equipment and emergency procedures as a teenager has in learning Latin.
Most people in party mode, hung over at 5am and slumbering it out for a few hours wouldn’t appreciate safety precautions, let alone an abandon ship command.
The moaning and bitching on a $3k tin can would be similar to a $30m luxury tin can…aboard one there’d likely be fisticuffs…on the other a sacking.
The real psychology might be that unless you prioritise safety and be alert to safety risks then you increase the chances of harm or tragedy. And if you believe a vessel is unsinkable then you are romancing a dream.
Often it takes a serious event to alter this mindset…and if you are in party mode then you are usually freewheeling on half a brain (which doesn’t compute logic entirely either)…but I bet that anyone close to those that perished will forever be more conscious of safety…and that the surviving owner and crew will forever wish they had done something differently.
Life is an adventure - there’s always hazards to navigate…and sometimes there’s harsh lessons to learn for us all.
@@robynmeyer7796 very rational view,
I think partying on the high seas is not a good idea
Some interesting points you make. I'm hoping this disastrous event will shake every boat going person, including Billionaires, into action and learn to take safety ALOT more seriously.
The argument sounds correct on the surface, but by hiring a professional captain, the owner is transferring the responsibility for the vessel, crew and passengers to the captain. That includes unpopular decisions. If the owner does not agree, he can get the necessary training and captain his mega-yacht himself.
However, the issue runs much deeper and is not limited to captains on mega-yachts. We see the same issue in mountain guiding. On the surface, both the captain and the mountain guide are hired for their skills and to ensure safety. However, making conservative decisions is easy. If local fishermen stay in port, don't have a party but button up your yacht and drop the keel. If conditions are bad or you are not a good enough climber, just don't attempt to climb the Matterhorn. The problem is...making conservative decisions is absolutely no fun and is absolutely unlikely to impress anyone else. So people hire a professional not to make an obvious conservative decisions, let's call that a white decision. They also do not hire a professional to make an obvious decision when things are really bad (black decision). Those types of professionals are actually hired to play the gray area. Make a party on your yacht work even if the weather forecast is bad. Find a line of untracked powder, even if conservative avalanche methods would not allow you that. And so on. A captain or a guide can only lose in this game. Either they play conservative and lose the product they actually sell. Or they play the gray area to the limit until someone dies
The ships Captain was also in bed asleep . The person on watch at the time was not even the 2nd captain . So this person had to wake up the captain when wind hit 20knots , then the captain wakes up and then has to make decisions inckuding waking up the guests .
Mate, you've always made good videos but this one is a clinch. Every point spot on with the event, and very unbiased. A good lesson for this is how can we be ready-enough when the weather turns. Great video!
This accident should raise hairs on all sailors necks. I’ve experienced freak wind storms on Puget Sound, basically an enclosed canal-like waterway in western Washington state. Sudden weather changes happen often when you chose to sail in conditions that are CAVU, clear and visibility unlimited. In other words, when there is enough wind to have a great time actually sailing. You are quite apparently not completely safe when in a harbor either, if it is not protected from the wind. But a downburst has crashed commercial airliners. So, one encountered by a sailing vessel should be very concerning.
@@kenwhitfield219 it didnt. It encountered being crewed by useless cunts.
The captain had at least 4 hours to get organised = for goodness sake!
@@dianamincher6479 !!!!!!!!!!
Being in the superyacht maintenance business in Mallorca for 35 years, I've worked on several Perini Navis and can testify that they are a well built vessels. I am surprised that the main rear saloon doors would open under gravity. This means whenever the yacht heeled on side would open ! That seems a little bizarre to me. I think most have powered doors and that I am almost certain that I have had occasion to repair the controls for these doors on a Perini in the past. I wonder if it had a power system for the doors that had failed and had been overridden as a temporary measure.
This same storm that caused havoc on the Island of Formentera passed over Mallorca and Menorca, across northern Sicily where this sinking occurred and onto Greece, where it was still powerful enough to raise waterspouts.
This storm passed over my house and the speed with which it rose was spectacular, from almost dead calm to full on storm in two minutes.
i've seen in other videos that 'somebody' had claimed that the tracks and motors for those doors weren't strong enough for that much weight.
This boat and equipment was strong enough. I built a strong steel boat myself and sailed it around the world. The keel should never have been up, as its weight was augmenting the risk of capsizing. Despite the noise it is making when lowered down. These guests should have accepted this little discomfort or stay at home.
I am alas disappointed that the skipper did not do its job by minimising the risks. At sea the risk is there , even if some guests think that they are in a floating palace. Ulric
@@steineru if the captain didn't do what the client wants, they get replaced with one who will. There's a reason the ultra wealthy get surrounded by yes men. Everybody else gets canned.
Great analysis. I live on an ocean beach in Mexico. I see the power of the ocean every time I walk on the beach. It never ceases to amaze me how the currents, tides, and waves rearrange the sand i.e. smooth one day the next day there is a three foot cliff. And last winter waves took down fifty yards of a steel pier.
The best video I found on the web about this disaster. As a recreational sailor myself I can not understand that a sail boat has been built with an angle of vanishing stability of less than 90° (whatever the keel configuration). Once on its side this boat would have plenty of time to get flooded. The crew could not do anything about it. Really dramatic...
Best video/article I’ve seen on this incident. I salvaged a lagoon 450 earlier this year that was dismasted by a f0/f1 tornado in Fort Lauderdale and imho they probably would have survived if they simply zipped their sailpack. Before that I’d leave my sailpack open all the time, now as soon as the sail comes down that pack gets zipped up.
After watching this video I think I’m gonna start latching my cockpit lockers, even while at anchor. My Cape dory 33 can take a beating, but if I get knocked down on anchor like this, those lockers are gonna flood me real quick.
Mother Nature is something to behold and revere. May the souls who passed away on Bayesian rest in peace.
But As a long time yachtsman owner and crew of racing and cruising yachts from dingy to 73 footer anything other than a sailing dingy or human ballasted center-boarder should have at least 126 point of vanishing stability and NO Openings allowing down-flooding except 'narrow centerline access hatches. I would have designed Even a large super yacht with these features and air intake and exhaust funnels on center line only and thru raised snorkel. Several centerboard large wooden yachts ( with internal ballast only though,not in the centerboard )were lost in the late 1800 s yachting era,one at anchor near NY I think in the 1880s with the wealthy owners family on board her. A calm summer after noon interrupted by a fierce sudden thunder squall line.Tragic
Mother Nature the boss.. in this case it’s obviously haarp
It must have been a pain for the naval architect to build this boat as seaworthiness was so much compromised by luxury and comfort features. Taking water @46° as well as the AVS...
This boat was not build as a seaworthy yacht, it was build as a floating party-zone with an enormous mast. An AVS of less then 90° means that it will stay down like a catamaran once inverted - absolutely incredible to me.
Yeah and they were floating not far from the shore. They didnt take it out scallop dredging in the middle of a gale force wind did they?
One of the most intelligent analysis I have seen, thank you. Super yachts, like super cars are amazing at many things but have trade offs. HVAC vents, gen set vents and exhausts can all be sealed automatically if flooding but the cockpit access interrupting the side decks is possibly significant but if she was knocked down she wouldn’t be floating on her topsides, the water would almost reach the centreline. Water would poor into the saloon area at a frightening rate and on to the stairs down to the guest quarters, the only immediate way out. Most tragedies come from a coming together of a series of small coincidences. The forecast for that night was nothing to worry about skipper of that kind of yacht, force 5 and localised thunderstorms. Microbursts out of the bottom of thunder clouds are impossible to detect without specialist radar found at some major airports but I feel sorry for the captain, maritime law is quite savage about who is ultimately responsible in cases of sinking.
I am ex crew on Superyachts. Guests are disturbed as a very last resort, sadly in this case, there would have been no hope for them once the yacht went on its side. If guests were hauled out of bed for every little bit of weather coming through, the captain would have been replaced probably with the rest of the crew. The crew who had obviously been called to muster, securing everything they could, survived, as did the 4 guests and tiny baby, and must have been thrown with force into the sea. In your video of the yacht blown over in NZ anybody on deck would have been lucky to survive being either thrown into the water, onto the dock or against the dock without serious injury. Ditto anyone inside. People actually survived in the Cat. Crews train for abandon ship, survival at sea (getting into a life raft etc). Unfortunately, when it all goes to **** it happens often, as in this case, in pitch dark, no lights once the yachts systems were destroyed by water, and no way for the poor guests to know where they really were and what to do. Their terror must have been beyond imagination. The crew cannot be blamed for them dying, it wasn't that they abandoned them, they were in the water before they themselves knew what was going on.
I believe that one of the things that will happen when the inquiries are completed is that guests/owners will be mandated to attend a life safety drill and they must attend and sign that they have been shown and told what to do on every trip. How to get out of your cabin (very difficult if the floor is now the wall) How to put on a life jacket, how to hold the lifejacket if you have to jump so it doesn't break your nose, where to muster, how to listen to commands, how to get into the life raft if it is tethered to the sinking yacht. The yacht if still afloat is your best lifeboat ever rather than an emergency life raft. It is mandatory aboard aircraft and cruise ships and should be with passenger yachts. In my 15 years of seafaring this has NEVER happened. They arrive for a good time and get stuck into the champagne. The crew if it had been possible would have gone to get the guests, there is always a member of the interior crew tasked with this in emergency. By the time the Captain knew anything it was too late. All this nonsense I've read about portholes being opened is just that from people who know nothing about yachts nor have been on a big one. All windows etc are built into the superstructure and don't open. The yacht should have survived even with watertight compartments flooded. Tender garage doors would have been shut at the end of the day normally once the guests have said they are staying on board, with the tenders stowed. It is a sea faring tragedy of catastrophic proportions, loss of life and a marine disaster. The foundering of any yacht is just that. We may know eventually, given an honest court, that it was a sequence of events that led to major catastrophe in very very little time.
Look. If YOU don't wanna be "disturbed" on a sailboat (or any boat for that matter) your place is on shore. Yeah find another way to enjoy your life, the water is not for you.
@@leecowell8165 That is a ridiculous attitude. Luxury yachts sail the world over affording employment for many, and this is an exceptionally rare incident.
@@leecowell8165 Why the aggressiveness ? He spoke for the guests taht comes on these super luxury boats and he mentionned he was a crew and did all the training mandated. So what's your point attacking him ? Take your pills and go to sleep jeez.
Thank you for your insider-information! I've heard something similar somewhere else and couldn't quite believe it. And honestly, if they don't have their own aircraft they would accept wearing the safety-belt during take-off and landing wouldn't they? What makes them believe being on a yacht is something different?
Yes, sure, in the meantime even production sailing boats in the smaller 60 - 80 foot class have become very popular for entertaining guests. They employ crews to deliver them to wherever they want the boat to be for their next party/business meeting/whatever. Friends of mine doing some of the deliveries sometimes pop up here for a fuelstop and a quick visit. Now, to get these boats as safely as possible from A to B they need to gaffer-tape every single sliding locker, the fridge, the last one had a sliding oven locker they had to keep in place with ropes. There is no lee-cloths of course, so the delivery crew drags the mattresses on the floor to be able to get a bit of rest when they are off watch on a passage. Now but that's only about the interior. Go up on deck and have a look! Not that the sailing-properties would be any good, but to work these ships under sail is half a nightmare. The deck isn't built for sailing, it is built for sunbathing and relaxing. The cockpit level with the saloon, and it's got the "necessary" fridge there! But try to handle the mainsheet, grab the speaker of the VHF or have access to the chatplotter and you're in trouble.
Honestly, when they can get away with silly designs on superyachts, why blame the smaller siblings for doing the very same thing?
And thank you for the info that actually people survived on this cat, this really looked very very bad!
@@12345fowler Hi Dody i know why he's got aggro somebody took the jam out of his doughnut,
As others have stated, my sincerest condolences to all the lives lost in this unnecessary tragedy. As a coastal sailor who has been forced to seek shelter on a number of occasions in makeshift bays and coves when a low pressure or gale unexpectedly shows up, I can sympathize and understand the terror those poor guests of the Bayesian experienced.
I had to ride out a gale in a bay where I anchored as close to the shore as possible and that gave me the most amount of lee from the prevailing winds. Over the next 72 hours my boat would suddenly heel over dramatically whenever a gust hit it. The trees of the shoreline only provided lee for the first 40 feet of my mast. The remaining section of mast was exposed. The remaining mast was only maybe 10 feet and had a cross-sectional width of about 10 inches but that amount of exposure, coupled with the leverage of the height of that exposed mast section was all it took to tip the boat over alarmingly.
I watched a clip of the mast installation on the Bayesian at a Majorraca boat yard this week. I couldn't believe how wide the mast is. That along with it's height would most certainly counteract any righting moment of the keel. Now, through this video I find that the keel was not in the lowered position. It seems this disaster will not be hard to solve how it occurred.
Nobody anchors with a swing keel down. It was not required with Bayesian. Those kind of keels always make a banging noise when there is any movement of the ship and would not be acceptable for that type of yacht. I am glad for Practical Sailor's information on the keel ballast, up until now I was unaware of much or any swing keel ballast at all, but obviously it was designed that way, though I find a 45 degree downflooding angle to be worrisome is that any different with other luxury sailing yachts?
@@westwoodframessigns1723 I used to sail an Alpha cat. 10’ beam and about 23’ mast. Saved capsize several times by disconnecting lee shroud and tacking so entire rig fell. Too bad there is no such option on big boats. Oh for the days when the mate could swing an axe and let the rigging go by the biard. Maybe the big boat guys should get a few battery powered side grinders?
Yours is the best explanation that I've seen or heard regarding the angle of vanishing stability on the Bayesian especially involving the keel. Thank you.
As with most disasters at sea, there are several contributing factors.. the yacht’s design with a tall mast and a retractable keel; the time of day, when guests were asleep; some very extreme and unexpected weather; and the fact that the boat was anchored with (perhaps) some open hatches or doors.
I have sailed for many years and I am trying to learn from this event.
The only lesson I can take.. is when there is any unpredictable weather, quickly make the decision to secure the hatches and companionway.
- this comment is respectfully submitted with prayers for the victims and their families.
Even if all the hatches and doors were closed, were starting to get info that the design of the boat had some design features that let water flood in when the boat is healing at an angle. Plus the air conditioning vents allow flooding
@@macpduff2119 For that stuff to sinsk like that, you need more than vents openings, you need a huge gash, or everything was opened. Alternatively the water density changed. Sinking so fast if the boat was dealt with reasonably well is impossible. I though the keel was responsible, but the boat didn't bulk apparently.
So were the people below deck sleeping with "open" hatches?
@@macpduff2119 Titanic syndrome?
There is only one reason in this case - a useless captain, useless watch and useless crew.
Far and away the best analysis I’ve heard to date. Succinct and informed. Many thanks from a grateful Canuck!
Thanks for this, Tim, and your comments are appreciated.. Unfortunately this whole affair seems to be attracting far too much unwarranted, ignorant and unprofessional comment.
As a pilot I have experienced flying through a downburst and it is an experience very much to be remembered.
As a sailor, the builder should at least have the grace to shut up until a professional inquiry submits its findings.
Is she maintained to Class? Surely someone in the Class Society looked at the downflooding angle vs the angle of vanishing stability? Who did the Plan Approvals? And maybe it would have been a good idea to produce some emergency procedures to overcome what looks like a design defect?
It is most unfair to start blaming the crew at this point.
It will be interesting to see how different Bayesian's downflooding angle is from other similar luxury yachts, I suspect about the same. Obviously for a typical "slapdown", it would not have been as dangerous a situation as a sustained heeling such as the downburst created, and a very unusual situation. It's hardly imaginable that such a boat could have been knocked down so far and for so long.
@JonElliott= You are the first person I see asking the question of Class.
As I understand it, obtaining a Certificate from a Classification Society is not an obligation for sailboats, but the insurance companies may ask for it if the sailboat is as big as Bayesian was.
I'd be grateful if someone in the know could state if Bayesian was certified. Two Societies come to mind: RINA, from the country of the Builder; Lloyd's, from the country of the Flag.
I'd bet they saw "Perini Navi" on the CAD file, her size, and gave it a Class A.
Class A is only 40 knots and waves over 13 feet, snyhow. An extremely common blue water day.
Hello Captain and BZ for the amazing analysis. My take on that is that the excessive comforts, the size of modern boats and the modern technological conveniences, lead us to relax against the elements of nature witch, by te way, the last years has become very extreme and unpredictable. The last part of your video after 09:30 is a big lesson for all the future sailors!!
To give a little context: there is a lot of mention of a 75m mast as if this is somehow a reasonable thing. I'm a rigger and a mast like this is almost inconceivable. Take the largest rig ever fitted to the Cutty Sark (about 4x the displacement) and it's that tall plus ANOTHER 30m or 100 feet. When you see these boats for real they look like a distortion of reality.
As someone who worked as a survey technician on ships and experienced North Sea storms, Med. storms, Atlantic storms and sailed from UK to Madeira in a 11m yacht all I can say is "Don't".
Hands up any hand that wants to crew a ‘yacht’ that downfloods at 44 degrees. I am astounded that this vessel was deemed seaworthy.
No kidding. Heeling to 45+ is a regular occurrence on my boat (during races, upwind)
@@muenchk If all was in control, would it not come back up?
@@reccerecce1sure. If all the hatches were closed, the vents shut down, the sliding glass doors locked with the pins. Then the 77deg angle would apply (which is still crazy low, but I guess it’s not a regular sailboat and doesn’t do regular sailboat stuff)
but...was it?
@muenchk 88° with the keel down which you would normally do for sailing. But I still wouldn't go offshore in it. My boat is an inshore boat but it will recover from having the top of the mast touch the water. And with her high & wide gunwales she can float on her side without shipping water in the cockpit. Her only weakness is the size of the cockpit drains. If you had a large wave or downpour fill the cockpit without the main hatch board in place you could get water in the cabin. But it'd take multiple waves or a massive downpour to sink her.
As a professional mariner for over forty five years when something looks out of place it usually is. The extreme height of the mast in a downdraft or microburst would have extreme lever forces trying to overcome her center of gravity, most vessels can survive such incidents if down flooding does not occur. The cascading of events will usually cause the demise of the vessel.
Thank you for explaining "if downflooding does not occur" - is this not the "crux" of the matter?
clearly you are not a mariner of 45 years let alone a professional one.
@@LiveFromLondon2 clearly you are a fool.
Tragic sinking. Many, many things to learn from any accident.
The biggest irony is the yacht was named for Bayesian statistics, which is based on Bayes' theorem. This uses new information to update knowledge about statistical model parameters using observed data.
We now have new observed data to show the previous models estimating that the design was safe have to be updated…
Tragically ironic.
i also looked up the word Bayesian when i first heard that it had sunk. It was so ironic indeed something considering who the owner was, poetic justice going on there. maybe they should not have had her original name changed esp if they couldn't find a virgin to do the honors
What is the probability of this sail boat sinking, given that the heel is in the up position?
I mentioned the same thing to my wife who is a statistician and got castigated by her for being so cold. I still think the irony is notable!
To quote you “it all adds up to disaster.” For me, the sinking is not unlikely, though all we sailors would like to think so. With a down flooding angle of only 45°, the giant cockpit, and saloon doors that don’t stay closed, I call that a likely scenario for sinking. Not even a safe coastal cruiser in my opinion, those facts/statistics are scary.
@@sunlovesailing Thanks for input - really helps!
@@PauletteCheyne helps what? helps you spread misinformation?
Yeah, that seems almost like malpractice on the part of the naval architect. So in terms of stats, that would yield a capsize rating of, what, about 4.8? I would be interested to find out who it was that decided to anchor there, the captain? or the owner so they could be closer to...whatever? Still, if you're hit by a random willy-waw, good luck.
@@mcrumph it would be a high capsize ratio for sure, but with a righting moment of 88° keel down, I don’t think I’m going off shore in that boat… or one like it.
@alexlindsey6446 its clear what happened. and its cler how many bots have infested these comments.
A superb investigation and conclusions. I read at the inception of the report of this tradgedy that they bragged the boat had the tallest mast of any that sailed. TY for the text. Soooo much information.
Better design rules . This boat was living on borrowed time if it sinks at 45 degrees. I don’t know how they get a certificate of seaworthiness.
For a boat like this , doors hatches and vents should automatically close and seal if the boat tilts beyond a certain point.
@@richardvivian3665 But what would happen to everyone on top deck? Or are you saying if doors hatches & vents automatically closed then vessel would not tilt any further or "sink"?? Still doesn't fit with downpour (I never heard of waterspout before so glad now know what it is) - been on board ships 3 times for weeks at a time years ago & thrown around in bunk like a rag doll feeling helpless & seasick but praying for Captain & crew navigating wide open sea with only darkness around - so so scary - no wish to repeat that experience - feel very sad for everyone affected 💔!
Many ship disasters have resulted in subsequent rule changes - think of Titanic boat capacity.
So in this case. These boats often seek a place to anchor in adverse weather. Perhaps most of the design requirements are focussed on sailing, and less on non-sailing (anchored, moored). Additionally also the state-of-readyness needs to be more sharp.
Many passive measures, such as keel-down (weather forecast), watertight doors closed, vents closed - some of this perhaps spring-operated (not gravity). The tradeoff being passenger safety vs. perceived comfort.
By the way, this boat have watertight compartements which could not be compromizes (only access from deck, not below deck).
So you will lock people up with no escape ?
I don't know about doors and hatches, but those air conditioning vents on the side of the hull should've had backflow preventors to keep sea water out in high seas. On the Bayesian they are surprisingly low relative to the waterline. I believe WWII diesel submarines had backflow preventers when snorkeling to charge their batteries.
That was the first time I heard about the ships stability range and ballast , to me seems as though sailing it in very much weather even with the keel down a freak gust in a squall would lay it over an sink it if you weren't really on the ball and shortening sail early , I can't think of a single boat I have owned over the last 60 years that at some point the mast didn't touch water . Great video Thx for it
I listened to a few videos regarding the accident and this is the best I have listened. Thank you for providing engineering specifications.
THANK YOU
This is the very first time i’ve seen the first footage of the boat flipping over then the Bayesians hall going down and up again. it is much more clear then the other footage you showed after. which it the only one i thought was out there. and i’ve been watching everything ..different channels etc since this happened. i wonder why people aren’t showing this footage. it’s so much better.
thank you ❤️🇨🇦
Totally concur, best explanation I’ve seen.
Regarding the weather forecast , media said there was a storm warning, a prominent UK oceanographer said the forecast was Beaufort Force 6 to 7 for that night ( near gale) , 33 kts of wind and of course local fishermen wouldn’t go out in those conditions, but I’m sure on a yacht that size that would not signal any huge danger to the craft.
Unfortunate tragedy, may they all rest in peace.
Having lived through one of these freak storms in August 2022 in Corsica myself, I know how quickly it can happen. Our luck was that it was daylight. But we got knocked down 90 degrees twice. We finally got out of it even though the engine quit while struggling due to a line in the prop! Visibility was less than 50 meters for quite a while. Very scary.
they are not freak storms. they are very normal for the med, especially in the summer. People sometimes treat the med as a lake when it fact it can be more "dangerous" than an ocean.
You were NOT in a swing keeled boat with a 240 foot mast either! You were at worst in a fin keeled boat but perhaps even in a long keeled boat. Years ago I crewed for a coupla years with whom I thought was a crazy captain at the time in the NE Atlantic but this was on long keeled double ended 40 foot steel ketch where sometimes this guy dragged the boom in the water! I mean there were DAYS on a tight reach whereby the leeside ports were looking at the fishee's even the gimbled births (yeah gimbled) were banging on their stops at times. He didn't care! This boat I heard was around the horn it was built in NZ in the 30's I bet its still floating somewhere what a tank! it had a real small center cockpit but sported inside steering and the only water that coulda got in there were through the line holes. Lastly he absolutely hated using the engine. It only drew about 5 feet though (probably because the keel was almost as long as the boat). We careened it once in the Bay of Fundy. We were there for a week cleaning off the barnacles they had to be at least 3cm thick! that Bay of Fundy is scary! Look around for a waterfall realizing all it was is the tide coming in or going out. jeez! Capt was definitely crazy BUT he could use a sextant... even at night. yeah a smart crazy. Never forgot him always smiling and would climb the masts like monkey. This boat was hairy to dock because it wasn't very maneuverable... mostly anchored or moored.
@@LiveFromLondon2 Get the facts, or the facts get you! Headline: "Violent storm kills six on Corsica as island raises new alert" and "Hail, heavy rain and winds peaking at 224 km per hour (140 mph) swept the island early in the day. Two of the victims were killed when trees fell in campsites." You call this a ‚regular storm‘ from your armchair? 🤡
@@maxx9384 you havent got a clue.
@@leecowell8165 sounds similar to Moitessier's Joshua.
So, the knockdown in the video is at least 80 degrees and there is no reason whatsoever to believe that Bay didn't experience any less knockdown force. 80 degrees (or?) vs 45 degrees? This is not complicated. Her unique definition of stability (more like a motor yacht than a sailing vessel) vs very high wind followed by a microburst direct hit was simply beyond the design's ability to resist. Had the crew enjoyed foreknowledge AND done everything perfectly in response, perhaps the boat could have been saved - 20/20 hindsight we call that. Not unlike the tragic DC10 crash in Chicago, where a reverse engineering of the crash lead to a conclusion that the pilots could have saved the plane by specific actions, none of which were in the book.
Just to say it's not just racing yachts that have AVS of 120-130°; almost all sailing yachts have AVS of this level. Even Southerly yachts which have a ballast shoe attached to the hull with a ballasted centreboard have a board up AVS of 120°.
The ocean is not a play thing. It demands respect.
Ahahaahahaa the ocean ahahaj ahababa
What I always do after such events is ask myself what would have I done?
The crew had full confidence in their vessel.
Undoubtedly the yacht that size would feel like a safe and secure vessel.
No sailor would consider a sailing yacht with a 45 degree least angle a safe sailing vessel.
I have been knocked down with my mast in the water in the Med... My 30 foot Moody had no problem righting her self ..
That is what I would expect from a sailing yacht.
However I don't think the crew or the Captain were aware of such a possibility.
With all honesty who of us here knows the boundaries of the least of our vessel?
A luxury yacht of that size at anchor?
Would any other crew shut all hatches?
Close A. C vents?
Lock compania doors and get all gusts in to life jackets?
Waiting for a freak wether phenomenon that no one could imagine?
Regarding the design?
We will all have to wait for the inquiry..
However any yacht should be able to suffer a knock down and right it self.
It seems to me this was an exhibition rig, rather than a proper ocean sailing yacht. Priority was given to airconditioning and engine ventilation through the hull sides, on a hull that couldnt right from a knockdown. It was bound to sink eventually in a circumstance (a knockdown) that is not unusual enough to be ignored by the designer. All the bleating about " who could have predicted this weather event" or "it was crew error" dont change the angle of vanishing stability or the downflooding angle. And before blaming the designer consider that he was being paid to deliver a showboat above all else. Where I would critiscuse the designers/builder is promoting the idea that the boat is unsinkable. Saying stuff like that gets people killed. Personally I think a proper yacht should take a knockdown in its stride without taking on water.
it ( the boat ) was nothing short of a 5-star that's for sure but in reality, it was simply a show pony bought by a big moneybag with more money than he knew what to do and in the blink of an eye all gone man and his besties the unholy trinity
A BUSINESSMAN, BANKER,AND A LAWYER are all on the same boat at the same time they win their court case but in doing so they ended up dancing with the devil when the music finishes the grim reaper is summoned he comes and claims his winnings
@@juliagregory5696 ironic!
Great synopsis of what we know to date on the yacht sinking. Very educational and informative for a budding sailor.
So it sounds like the CEO who said it was unsinkable was right. If the ship was completely buttoned up and unuseable as a guest bearing yacht, it wouldn't sink. Kind of like saying a car is incapable of being in a fatal accident if the wheels are removed and the doors are welded shut.
Hardly. Shutting down the engine and air conditioning for a few hours would not render the vessel "unusable as a guest bearing yacht". Your comparison of "welding doors shut and removing the wheels" is absurd.
@@UguysRnuts You really think a billionaire owner is going suffer through hours of baking below decks in 90 degree weather?
@@KomarBrolan Have you ever been on a sailboat?
@@UguysRnutsyou can’t just black out and shut down the AC whenever the wind picks up.
@@JT_2024-c8j Black out?
Excellent additional information over and above what is available in public media. Thank you for sharing.
Man what an excellent video!!
Great commentary!!
I'm really impressed!!
Perini Navis operating instructions for the keel are that it should always be kept in the upright position - because of the noise it creates - unless actually sailing or navigating over 60 miles from shore. Most large yachts of this pattern have similar operating protocols for a lifting keel.
Those were not the instructions.
@@UguysRnuts They're in the standard operating procedures for these Perini Navi vessels to reduce noise for the guests - the keel bangs about a bit, disturbing sleep particularly at night. Most large lifting keel boat manufacturers issue the same protocols. Read the manuals .....
@@ourfarmhouseinspain Listen again. The board was up because "the crew" found it quieter. NOT because of ANYTHING in the "manual" which YOU have NOT read either despite your insinuation.. This is the only Perini Navi of this design with a lifting keel.
Your being misleading. It says if the winds picks up to 60. You seek to be saying this on many forums.
@@matjam8305"wind picks up to 60". What?
Very concise and factual reporting, one of the best. Thank you ☺️
There is not a media outlet on this planet that would or could do a better job explaining this tragedy.
Our media sucks and this guy is great.
Thank you for your efforts and expertise.
Most helpful vid I've seen on this, Thank You!
if she starts taking water @ 45º, she is NOT a sail boat, she is a power vessel, any sail boat that dosent upright @ 90º should not be classed as a sail vessel.
The other boat Sir Robert Baden Powell will most likely not upright from 90º.
Taking on water @ 45? It’s not any kind of boat.
Fully agree and am surprised 😮 !
@@mkunes2502 its more like a canoe except some canoes are actually better !
So if water poured down from above (waterspout) onto the yacht which was unforeseen, how could anyone have stopped it from flooding irrespective of "open" hatches? Any suggestions?
One point not mentioned about the tornado that flipped the 50 foot catamaran and knocked down the superyacht... this event happened in a packed marina and other vessels just metres away were not affected at all. The freak wind gusts covered an area only about 50 metres wide, lasted a short period of time and could not be seen coming.
I've been in similar situations with a tornado 15m from my boat. The effects are not isolated. A superyacht on the hard at the time got knocked off its stands. Everyone within the bay would have felt it. You can also tell by looking at the video of the boat going down
@@matjam8305 So, you were just 15m away from a tornado yet you weren't affected? Doesnt that prove that the effects can indeed be isolated.
I was in a marina tied to a dock with a line in the water at the bow. The storm was all night thus the boat keeling over all night with the gusts but when the tornado touched down at the end of the dock it was enough to push my boat over about 45 degrees but my Keel is about half the weight of the boat thus rights quickly. I was concerned with masts getting caught up in a tight marina.
What I'm trying to say is a tornado doesn't just appear suddenly, the weather will warn us of a storm storm and will progressively get worse or better. The crew were warned of a storm, enough to keep fishermen from going out. Here in the med, we know any storm can be sudden and violent, but there is at a minimum a lead up to it enough to prepare.
Thanks for a balanced and sensible insight. I read an assessment from the previous skipper and this concurs.
you bots have a very unnatural way of saying things.
@@LiveFromLondon2And you have a very nasty and aggressive way of saying things
Awesome report. Pretty horrified at the rush to blame the crew by the company than owns the manufacturers, but then they have an invested interest for it not to be the design of the boat.
They are absolutely to blame. The yacht builder is a narcissist and so is the captain.
Rich people always blame "the help"
25 yrs experience at sea
1. Bad weather was expected secure vessel before bad weather arrives.
2. Lower keel increasing stability by increasing GM and GZ lever.
3. Inform guests of weather to be expected raise there level of alertness with out causing panic.
4. Have engine ready to start if required
5. Check anchorage pay out more chain consider raising anchor and avoid weather entirely.
6. Close all WT doors hatches, open freeing ports, check scupper are clear.
7. Reduce free surface effect in tanks if possible.
8. Ensure bridge is manned by qualifed officers, write night orders and brief all crew of the situation.
The vessel that rolled over in the video came back to the upright position very quickly she would of taken on water as she heeled way past her angle of downflood. She returned to the upright because she had reserve buoyancy, positive stability and a positive GZ lever. Bayesian did not hence she sank.
dont even need 25 years to see the obvious! That captain is going to jail without a doubt.
Design a yacht properly and you can eliminate your 1-8 requirements.
@@AORD72 These yachts are built to client specification, often those specifications are not conducive to safety.
The builder can advise the client of risks associated with design decisions, if the client disregards the risks then the builder can refuse to build the yacht and lose a huge contract or build it anyway….
This yacht was compliant with the regulations - Just…
The problem is with the industry not just the yacht.
bs
@@LiveFromLondon2 There is no evidence that the captain did anything unusual or wrong at this point, it is impossible to make such a condemnation by any rational person.
Thank you, for confirming my theory in the beginning. Think about all the furniture that went with it. At 90 degrees a lot of things also came loose.
There was so much floating debris inside said the divers, even a guest who might have tried swimming up and out wouldn't have been able to (said me)
@@peteminers236 At a 45 degree heel, the rails are under water and the sunken deck is taking on water.
i too have given that some mighty ponderings there would have been bedsheets towels all getting tangled up clothes shoes finest food just a floating hell hole.the weath it took with it down to the bottom of the deep blue sea now its worthless fit only for salvage. who knows some day they may make a movie or Netflix series if so they should give the profits to the real heroes of this disaster to the divers who did due diligence and retrieved all human remains and to those who helped in the search I SALUTE YOU.
When I boat goes down that quickly , it is not what the crew did do or did not , .........that is design flaws
While the mast design was described as "robust and well controlled," the fact that it required special considerations in the yacht's overall design and operation indicates it was indeed pushing the limits of what was technically feasible for aluminum mast construction at the time.
16min from 3.50 /4.06
@@pacoxxi3302 very short time for any actions
the weather report for that night wouldn't have really alarmed anyone most likely but the captain of the boat that came to help did all the right things to avoid the sinking of his vessel. had the captain of Bayesian done the same the boat may not have sunk. why did the captain not start the engines, turn the boat into the wind, close the doors and windows and lower the keel when the weather started coming on strong? the other captain did when weather hit. also, the design of the Bayesian does not seem very forgiving and "unsinkable" if it has many openings and doesn't do well past 45 degrees. such a tragic event. very informative video, thanks!
When you are at anchors you are upwind, you don't need the motor to achieve this. It was a different circumstance for the yacht shown in the video in NZ which was at dock.
the weather report for that night was enough to keep the fishermen in harbour. Indeed, being experienced sea-farers they most likely could smell the storm.
50 years sailing and a deck officer by trade. Accidents often occur when 3 or more minor events or acts combine to produce disaster, as seems to be the case here. I'm always planning ahead and mitigating risks. A large glass of water at dawn, food eaten before seasickness sets in, life jackets and harnesses ready before the weather turns foul, all crew can call a position on channel 16 etc etc. The best part of sailing/boating is that there is always something new to learn, so any troubles are analyzed and discussed to understand and implement anything that could reduce risks. In this case, any of the things that likely contributed to sinking - keel up, doors open, vents not closed - alone would not have resulted in such a rapid sinking. Combined they did. It's always better to over prepare, which can be done without crew/passengers really noticing, than under prepare. Very good video and thanx for no sound track. I'll remember the lesson of leaving the boat in a hurricane so thanx for that.
Very objective, thorough and professional analysis. Thank you for this valuable information.
Excellent explanation, learned a lot
Excellent and clear reporting, thank you!
You are such a great narrator. Such a great channel
Detailed and accurate information, well thought out and well presented. Thank you.
great report, no bias, factual and very interesting.
The Westhaven clip shows that excessive windage on a large mast, with nothing else up, can flatten a yacht and Bayesian's mast was the biggest in the world when built.
Good review and summing up. The keel being up is a real problem. 10 degrees less AVS is a big deal. If the airco was working, it would be expected that doors and hatches were shut. The self opening glass doors however need to be regulated.
Just to clarify...the example footage "westhaven" is from another storm event in Auckland NZ.
If a single person looking for a new boat... pocket cruiser to superyacht... pays attention to the deadly design choices made here, all the stories about this sinking are worthwhile.
A very clear presentation.
esysman super yacht news has the best reporting on this sinking.
bayesean also has cutaways to the the bulwarks at the aft cockpit as a design "feature" which would allow water ingress when she was not even at her point of vanishing stability.
thank you...the most informative footage i have seen about the subject....
🤔 Tim, this tragedy was well researched and explained. Your thoughts and experience on conservative seamanship and decision making are well appreciated.
Practical Sailor chose very well when the brought you aboard taking advantage of your decades of both racing & cruising.
Some topics which would be interesting to cover in the future are:
1) The relative merits of in-mast vs in-boom furling systems.
2) A comparison of the major wind vane configurations and manufactures. (Cape Horn, Hydro
Vane, etc).
3) A comparison of the various sail plans: Marconi, Gaff Rigged, Junk Rigged, and Lateen.
Since these four rig’s have withstood the test of time it would be an interesting topic
because we in the west are Marconi oriented and don’t know much about other rig
philosophies.
Wave Rover II, a 21’, Jun Rigged SV, for example is in the midst of a Trans-Atlantic crossing
as I write this and is currently in 12-15’ seas due to having the wind in opposition to the Gulf
Stream (a rough ride, but handling it well).
Sailing Emerald Steel has been build, maintained and sailed continuously by Jules & Suzy
for the past thirty years as a steel Gaff-Rigged SV. They have both circumnavigated and
sailed in both “High & Low latitudes.
I’ve perhaps written too much, Tim, but I value your balanced and even approach to discuss the “pros & cons” of all things sail and location related. Thank you for your voice. 👏 👍.
Best explanation so far!😘
Not only a floodable rear cockpit opening into the salon, but also a huge floodable cockpit at the base of the mast. That's tons of water at deck-level flooding below decks. Perini Navi CEO is whistling in the dark...and consulting lawyers.
Excellent explanation 👌
An excellent explanation. Thank you!
Small correction is that the Bayesian didn't have a swing keel, it was a straight retractable keel.
Are you sure about that?
Where did you get that info?
It wasn't a swing keel, it was a retractable keel, straight up and down😮
Ultimately, one yacht sank and the other survived in the same conditions. One, a 1957 schooner with a solo crew old school captain. Who pulled anchor and made ready. The other with 10 crew who ran around at the last minute to stow deck furniture. …….
He wasn't a solo crew and he didn't pull the anchor up. The thing he did was to start the engine in forward gear as we all do to release the strain on the chain and anchor in the dear hope it will help to keep the anchor from dragging (= losing it's hold on the seabed). Most of the times this works, and we are always begging it will, but sometimes Nature is too strong and it doesn't.
Concerning the other part of your post: you haven't been out there on the boat, have you? How can you possibly claim a professional crew would behave like this?
Irrelevant comment in the circumstances, including for one, that the schooner might not have got hit as badly, and if heeled right over past 45 degrees, was almost certainly more water-tight..
@@DavidTangye irrelevant comment in any circumstance. Like you.
Another channel showed video of one of Bayesian's sister ships where 3 crew were trying to secure the sliding door in rough weather as it kept slamming open and shut. One crew member had at least one finger mashed as they struggled to secure it.
Yes, and I forgot to add, there is no way any of the crew is to blame. Instead they should be commended for saving the lives they did in such an adverse and rapid scenario. Kudos for keeping their cool and tending to the task at hand, saving who they could.
Apart from themselves, who did they save? The captain and watch officer are 100% to blame for this catastrophe.
@@LiveFromLondon2WOW are you smart.. You know more than the investigators and the generals.
Still intriguing and nobody should make conclusions.
The Captain probably was aware, but having the owner onboard with his own priorities could be a challenge.
@@robertgarbe6348 they know as well, they just arent saying it out loud, yet.
@@Badum2008 then that would him a useless, worthless captain.
Let me add some more insight on the design, I watched a detailed discussion with a designer who knows this boat. First off, Bayesian was not designed as a pure sailing vessel. Think of it more as a motor-sailer. It's stability characteristics are much more like a powerboat than a typical sailboat. This is done for comfort for guests/owners. To me, sticking such a tall mast on this design is a flaw. The windage from that massive mass and rig is significant at that height. Second thing. The boat is well engineered but ultimately bult for comfort as the zillionaires who can afford a 40 million sailing yacht with 10 crew expect luxury and convenience. This is why those damned awful sliding class doors are used even though they had problems on each boat that had them. Cuz it looks cool and is functional. And of course, AC is a must, the vessel has massive generators/alternators on the engines to power a luxury lifestyle. So of course ample ventilation is required. All of these decisions is how one ends up with this boat having a 60meter mast but basically an awful stability profile. The idea that the designer isn't at fault boggles my mind.
Put it this way. If I had commissioned this design and the marine architect gave me those stats on stability I'd have scrapped the design and found another designer. As well, how could a boat builder ever agree to build such a flawed vessel? Be clear, this boat was built to withstand 'normal' sailing conditions but can't handle a knockdown? All sailboats will get knocked down at some point. Fyi, that's all that happened here - a knockdown. Very severe one, no doubt, but still. Watch the Westhaven clip he showed of that other sailboat getting knocked down and righting itself. Don't agree? Let me put it this way. This boat will sink like a stone every time it takes a real knock down. It's designed to sink in this way. There is no way to safely survive a knockdown in this boat.
Fyi, I'm not a pro. But I do have all my USSA sailing certs for cat/mono, did a bunch of racing, and was a yacht broker for a while. I even studied a little marine architecture but be clear, I'm not an expert. Just experienced. I imagine that that Master of this yacht must have been briefed on the boats stability parameters. This would, at a minimum, call for extra vigilance in any storm. The crew/master is at fault in a serious way in that the Master and two other trained seamen on the yacht should have understood this vulnerability. The fact that pushes me in this direction is that a nearby yacht saw the weather as serious enough to get underway and prepare for a big storm - in the same anchorage. Of course they cannot foresee a downspout like that. But their boat is LESS STABLE than almost all other sailboats. Why on earth wouldn't SOP be a super cautious procedure when a known, serious storm is approaching.
Let me make it even clearer. They had a less safe boat but took less safety precautions than boats that were more stable in the same exact anchorage and weather. This is a clear error by the trained crew. Also be clear, while it was a super yacht, it wasn't a motor yacht. On a sailboat, guests/owners know there are more considerations. The idea that it was such bad form to rally the passengers and get the boat headed into the wind with everything battened down is silly. Also note the boat had water tight sections, and could survive with two sections flooded. This means it's very likely that watertight hatches were open. As well, note none of the passengers stuck deep in the boat seemed to know where the emergency exits were. Was there a thorough safety briefing for the passengers? All of this is crew failure.
Seems to me we can conclude the following. The designer built a boat that can't handle a knock-down, but the crew sailed it like it could...Both are at fault.
The captain and crew were up on deck at those wee hours going through their normal preparations. But the boats design was so vulnerable to a capsize in severe weather that warnings should have been posted in every passenger cabin.
Excellent comment
Were you on board? Have you ever experienced a "waterspout" as well as bad windy weather? If not, save the explanations - lessons hopefully to learn from this type of event especially by "designers"?
Point into the wind? How on earth do we know from what direction this waterspout or downspout -- or whatever the freak thing was that sank this boat -- was coming?
@@GeraldBrecher It's clear you didn't read my comment. I didn't suggest they could know about the downspout. Move along.
Keels are what make sailboats incredibly stable, without the keel at least partially down it's top heavy, simple physics
The yacht fails the eyeball test-too much mast too little boat-The design was flawed.No boat should be so poorly designed that it sinks 16 minutes after being heeled over-at anchor-1 km offshore. Getting tipped like that is a completely predictable occurrence-Even amateurs can see the problem.
You got it. It is easily the most obvious issue to me too. It's going to be interesting to see what the investigators come up with. Anything else would be extremely interesting to say the least.
@@DavidTangye thats because you are a clueless. Or a bot trying to change the narrative. The captain and crew were fucking useless and 7 people died because of that.
600 metrow
Swing keel, sloop design. HUGE cockpit. HUGE mast (due to sloop design on a huge sailboat). This thing should have 2 or even 3 masts to lower the mast height along with sporting a long keel. Most ocean going sailboats have relatively small cockpits with big scuppers along with long keels. No way you'd catch me asleep on a boat like this below deck. Another advantage of a long keel is relatively shallow draft and well protected rudders. Even in the event of a knockdown that results in a demast the boat itself will still recover. What a lousy design!
It's pretty amazing. Almost every design choice on that boat is the opposite of what I would look for in a coastal cruiser or passage maker.
An unforeseen down burst, is an event of incalculable odds. I saw a carpenter standing inside a house being built loose his eye when a carpenter out side nailing plywood missed the stud . Hitting the carpenter inside . That is an incalculable event. My heart goes out to all .
Excellent video ~ thank you for such a comprehensive analysis.
Every ship is designed for a specific purpose. This ship represented maximum size and luxury. large sliding doors that are designed to impress. Wide companionways on the outside to quickly and easily get inside. All factors that contribute to uncertainty and instability. The old ship nearby was able (The captain has definitely assigned an anchor watch. Is mandatory) to detect the storm in the middle of the night, start the engine and keep the ship safe. They cleared a dinghi and launched a rescue operation. That's what I call seamanship. The crew on the Bayesian were passengers. There ist nothing they could do.
While starting the engine might have helped stop or slow anchor drag, I cannot see how it would have helped if that boat were also hit by the downburst. As I understand it, Bayseian also had an anchor watch but this kind of information will only come out during the inquiry.
Right on, these luxury yachts are usually the least "sea" worthy among boats. You can't have it all.
@@RayThackeray Sir Robert Baden Powell was built as a stout ocean-going ship in 1957 with a design that had proven it's seaworthiness over decades - remember, 1957 was about the time that the area of the big sailing-ships transporting cargo around the world ended, because they couldn't compete any more with the steamships who were taking over their business.
There is no such thing as a ship that cannot sink, and of course there is no guarantee that she would have survived.
But, to place it very carefully, her design is less focused on luxury and appearance but instead on utility, practical use and seaworthiness.
I don't have access to any detailed data of her apart from what is stated in her public AIS file (overall length 42 m, beam 6.50 m, length of the hull without bowsprit 32 m, draught 3 m and gross tonnage 111), a drawing of her lines on the website of the company who operates the vessel and a few photos on internet.
While this is in itself is certainly not enough information to claim something about her abilities, my experience as a sailor, liveabord and someone who had to do an incredible amount of research concerning design, stability and boatbuilding to rebuild my own ketch with all the documentation lost, tells me:
The shape of her hull is very well capable to take a knockdown, her schooner-rig is kept moderate in height to reduce windage in adverse conditions (but will not allow her to be able to sail to her full potential), her longkeel makes for relaxed behavior on long passages in bad weather, and unless someone accidentally made an error in calculating the amount of ballast in her keel she should easily pop back up from a heeling angle of at least 130 degrees. The layout of her deck is of the classical kind, built to prevent water from getting into the ship.
If I had to decide which vessel I would prefer to be on, the Sir Robert Baden Powell - IMHO - did stand a better chance to resist and survive what was coming.
While I agree with you that the crew of the Bayesian didn't have the tiniest chance to prevent or avert what happened no matter what they tried, I don't think using the word "passengers" is very suitable.
@@dodystiller3718
Yes I would certainly agree, a very poor and unfortunate choice of words.
One must also consider the wind speed required to heel the vessel over to 45 degrees before concluding it sank from a design fault.
The beam windspeed with not a single sail on its mast!
@@andreasbacher2695 Which supports the notion that the freak weather condition was not simply a powerful "storm" but something acted in a way that could not have been anticipated.
A salient comment - my guess is that it probably took the force of a 200kt wind or more. I have a 97' steel ketch and have been caught by an unexpected sustained 80-knot wind under all plane sail yet still did not heel more than about 25 degrees, so I know what it feels like!
@@RayThackeray irrelevant. Baynsian had a massive mast. Your launch is not even a yacht - no mast to speak of. Look again at the video of the yacht under bare poles being struck by a decent gust here in Westhaven Marina (NZ). It was unlikely to have been much more than 70 -80 knots, IMO, perhaps even a little less. That's enough.
@@DavidTangye I very much doubt a 70-80 knot wind would knock down a vessel with such huge ballast. My "launch" is only 100 tons and yes a lot smaller than Beyesian but these things are scalable.
This has an antecedent. The yacht MOHAWK did the same thing in 1875, also killing owner and his wife and others and crew. That boat too had a centerboard in up position. Was at anchor with sails set. Maiden voyage. Squall. About same lenght but schooner rigged.
Moral: keep the board down, carry only min sail if board down, secure ballast. Keep hatches closed unless righting moment is high for possible conditions. And if you have a piano in the saloon as did Mohawk, keep it bolted to the cabin floor so it doesn’t fall onto your wife.
Wow…that’s as good an overview I have heard, or read. Thanks mate.
Those sliding glass doors are surely a factor in the speed that she sank.
For the money spent, I feel the owners deserved a more thought out boat. It’s a shame that a huge sum of money paid and builders did not build it smarter. No way is it practical to think doors will be locked in place throughout and every vent closed while at anchor. Shameful. People are told to shut up, don’t ask questions, cover ups, and regulators wanting to move on quickly . Look into the tall ship Pride of Baltimore. All these tall ships , too many designed by the same blow hard designer. I recently asked for stability information on the Kalmar Nyckel. I was called stupid, told to mind my own business and worse. This is the attitude and culture that is getting people killed. The Kalmar was designed by the same guy that designed the Baltimore. It’s doomed if they ever put sails up at sea. So far it looks like they sail only under motor.
I think part of the problem is the owners demanding the tallest mast, the biggest doors, etc. The builders need to say no despite losing a 300 million contract. Not easy.
@@rustyheyman214 the problem is an incompetent captain and/or watch officer.
beorbeorian: Do you know why the mast of bayesian needed to be designed that tall? -- 200 feet+ high mast seems absurd....It is significant that a similar yacht at anchor (with engines running) nearby, with a much less tall mast, survived the downburst blast of wind vortex....and did not heel over....
Beorbeorian , thanks for mentioning the Pride of Baltimore, I had immediately thought of them when I heard of the situation in Sicily, I just couldn't remember the Pride of Baltimore's name. If I remember correctly, I may not I as I too am no longer a young sailor.
@@LiveFromLondon2and you have proof of this I assume?
Please share…
Obviously only a total @$$ would accuse a professional crew of incompetence without strong evidence.
Very good analysis and explanations as to the probable cause of this tragedy. The footage from Westhaven Marina in New Zealand should be highlighted distinctly so as not to cause confusion with the actual event (but it is the closest example of extreme weather tipping a yacht). Appreciate your expertise however and succinct delivery.
Very well said and interesting information! Thanks
The figures I saw, can't recall where, gave the ballast at 200 tons with 60 tons in the swing keel and a displacement of 485 tons. Thats not a low ballast ratio for such a large vessel. The fact that she was sailing for some 17 years without exceeding 45 degrees attests that she was well ballasted.
However the 45 degree downflooding angle blows my mind. Even if you _really_ want to place vents outboard how hard can it be to engineer automatic failsafes into those (ie to admit air but not water)?
As for the storm. There's no predicting that. In another clip's comments somebody very confidently wrote "boats don't sink at anchor". In that same storm you showed footage of another keelboat in that marina was lifted out of the water despite being tied to a pier, dragged across the powerboat in the next berth, dropped back on the pontoon, holed and sunk. Was that boat's crew at fault?
Best comments I’ve heard on this so far.
Great video! As the owner of an aging 45' racer, I'm just flabbergasted by all the GLASS surrounding that big open salon in Bayesian's main cabin! And that was protected by a sliding glass door??? The sliding glass door on my condo leaks whenever a tropical storm or hurricane blows rain directly into it, so how could something like that ever survive submersion? Then if it just slid open on its own when the boat heeled... well, that's pretty-much the story, isn't it? Yes, the weather was extreme, and yes, the crew should have lowered the keel since they had the depth for it, but that door design is almost as silly as screen doors on a submarine. Tragic too to hear about the furniture sliding around and (presumably) blocking the passengers' escape. They did know this was a sailboat, right? EVERYTHING should be bolted down!
Towards the end of the summer ( after mid august ) the weather in the Med is known to be potentially dangerous because of the higher temperature of the sea. This year in particular, temperatures of the Med have been reported to be 3°C above the normal average ( due to climate change ). A similar event struck the island of Formentera a couple of days before. More than a dozen boats were pushed ashore from their anchorage ( among which a Wally racing maxi belonging to Armani ).
why not just cut and paste your entire reply!!! the storm crossing the med from west to east was huge. started i thin on Tuesday. Battered Ibiza (and formentera), then Mallorca and Menorca, swirled back west for a while, picked up more power, headed east, and dropped its load as it neared the italian coast. Nothing whatsoever unusual about it. Spectacular but not unusual.
@@LiveFromLondon2 I agree: spectacular but not unusual in this part of the world at the end of august.
Thank you for a factual review - woking forward to more insights as the facts appear from you, looking at it at the universeal spiritual level forces of nature.
Crews just don't train for situations like this. Guest/owners don't want to hear about, much less train for, conditions or events of this magnitude. Keep the owner happy or don't work here. I have never trained for a GTFO situation (with passengers) even in school. I know every captain has passengers/crew/boat/other boat same order drilled into them, but who has ever talked to someone who has experienced this kind of event? The crew may know how to survive when the SHTF, but the passengers not so much without help. On a big yacht or cruise ship, they tend to isolate the crew from the guests which is not good for the guests when they need the crew in an emergency. Once the crew is off the boat, it is really every man for himself, because there is really no way to get back until the vessel has sunk enough that you'd be crazy to goo back. Minimal crewing on yachts is another subject that causes yachts to be unsafe when s@#t happens.
With 10 crew that yacht was severely undermanned
Great explanations and conclusions
Excellent analysis! Thank you
When I read the reports how fast the ship went down, I didn't believe it is possible to sink a good designed sail boat that fast. But then you get the size of the mast, the first thing coming to mind is, yeah, that is a "Mine is Bigger than Yours" design. Not sure I would dare to go blue water with a ship having a down flooding angle of 45 degrees and a freakishly tall mast... if that is correct, I wouldn't call that a sailing vessel in the first place, is Designer crap.... a batten down ship shouldn't sink that fast.
I ended with my 71 schooner in a hurricane on a Atlantic crossing and had only drops of water inside the ship when we were changing gear after shift. Wasn't fun.. but also never felt in danger.
Had my money on design flaws from the start, sinking a ship of that size in such a small time frame should be impossible.
Thanks for a well-organized and coherent report. It seems likely that the explanation is the 1% event.