10 Day Trend 10/07/2024 - Any signs of a jet shift? - Met Office weather forecast UK
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 ก.ค. 2024
- This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 10/07/2024.
The jet stream has been stubbornly sitting to the south of the UK recently. Any signs of a shift?
Bringing you this 10 Day Trend is Aidan McGivern.
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Gone straight from spring to autumn this year. Ive already been finding species of mushroom that are meant to start coming up in september. This isnt just a bit wet, or typical british summer, this is extremely strange weather
If Autumn is like this I'll be happy 😂
Shrooms
Been autumn since October 2023, no winter, no spring, no summer, is appalling. Need that high pressure to come in, have a trip to Wales on the monday 22nd
@@meltecal 😉
@@briocheoleary5043That is astronomical summer (NOT meteorological summer). It makes no sense to have the longest day of the year as the first day of summer !!
This is so depressing so fed up with low pressure all the time
I get high blood pressure listening to it lol
it needs to stay like this until christmas
" it's not going to be quite as unsettled as it has been"
How could it be more unsettled? 😂
The one thing we haven't had yet is destructive flooding, so it is not as bad as the awful summers of 2007 and 2012 so far, but I wouldn't put it past the UK's weather to give it a go in August.
We have only two seasons, in the uk, cold rain season and warm rain season 👍
The joke was always "We have 3 months of winter and 9 months of bad weather".
And we appear to have a “windy” season for 12 months of the year.
Case in point 40 years ago throughout the 80’s I sat on a south coast beach waiting for the wind to kick in for my windsurfing. It was markedly calm for the decade.
Now I’m too old (read that as unfit) to windsurf it’s pretty much 20 knots plus of wind every day!
It’s not Global Warming - it’s Global Winding….
…and permanently grey skies!
The met office app used to be spot on over 3 or 4 days now it seems 3 or 4 hours is your max .too many models maybe
“The summer so far” , I must have missed it.
We did have summer, it was last Thursday, we even had a two hour break between showers.
climate intervention is what we're seeing, being put into practice in a bid to halt climate change😊
Well, that was (expectedly) depressing... :D
Hope we get at least a week of hot dry weather, it'll be dark, wet & cold again before we know it.
No summer for us commoners.
I don't think most people understand what the situation is for those who grow food, everything is extremely slow, farmers can't gather hay for winter feed we can't get a break to winter plant and Europe is baked to a crisp and farmers are suffering there too, we have lost most of our pollinators to climate change and this on top of everything else means food wise we are in SERIOUS trouble
Last year weather is this year weather wet wet wet and cold cold cold cold
Looks like weather manipulated to me don’t know about stuck 😂
The one thing that keeps being missed is this weather has been going on for months, its not just a summer problem. The lack of sun this year has been horrifying. We keep being told it will be better and it keeps changing, it's ridiculous now as referenced. Worst year on record for certain
Excellent comment, they keep saying the summer been poor,but what about spring, dull and wet, only reason May was above average for temperatures was the overnight min, because of the cloudy nights, Winter Dull and wet, Autumn dull and wet, there is something major gone wrong with the climate for us in the UK
@@grahamheaver9797 Glad I am not the only one! I have asked for this to be answered but they never do
@@RobMorton-cd4psI’m on a lot of weather forums, and they are all asking the same, Why are we stuck in this rut, unfortunately some of the senior forums members have said due to the rise in sea temperatures in the Atlantic it picking up more moisture causing the jet stream staying to the south, which they say will stay for the foreseeable…but the met office who I thought were the market leaders on climate change keep telling us the summers will be hotter and drier, Really don’t think they have an answer either…
@grahamheaver9797 truly shocking if that's happening, if we can't get out of this rut. Though what I would say that if the same weather models which have been so useless at telling us the weather so far are predicting the rest of the summer are like this I will hold judgement on that!
It is the worst year since ....... last year. Apart from June and the first week of September the weather was persistently awful.
It’s like the jet stream is doing it deliberately now.. It’s just not funny anymore.
Quite fed up with hearing “this low pressure will move in over the UK bringing with it wetter weather and below average temperatures” ☹️👎🏼🌧️
It feels like a repeat of last summer to be honest, but not the record breaking heat in June this time, just something warmer and more settled. That seemed earlier in June last year, this year at the end of June. July 2023 was very disappointing last year, again a south shifted jet stream being the cause. Remember, the hottest day of 2023 wasn't until September following what seemed a cool, wet and unsettled July and August. It felt to me like we had broadly the same weather (wet) for most of the last 12 months!
Yeah we had like 9 weeks of constant low dominating pressure from June to that hot week in sept
What a miserable, horrible cold, windy & wet summer. 😢
Hey it will be claimed as the hottest year ever again.. watch this space. 🤣🤣
@@karlosiouk we just had the warmest spring on record that’s a statistical fact. It felt rubbish because it was unsettled and often cloudy and windy but that doesn’t alter the record high average temperature
Weather from the west, rain. Weather from the east, rain. Weather from the south, rain..... Oh you get it.
So why is the jet stream splitting up so much this year? I suspect that this is why forecast confidence /accuracy is so low.
Can't we just tilt the planet south a bit... 😮... Easier than waiting for summer to arrive...
If you are the master of gravitational field, you can
It’s coming to the stage, if I want to know the weather, I look out the window, cause the predictions are a bit hit and miss!
Interesting that computer models make the same mistake repeatedly. It suggests there is a deficiency in the models or the quality of the data. Any idea what it might be?
Models beyond seven days have little skill so it is unsurprising that forecasts at ten days lead do not verify very often. The example given in this video is too small to establish whether there is a bias in the models.
Both I would say.
What a fantastic summer “ said no one in the uk EVER !!
1975, 76, 83, 84, 89, 90, 94, 95, 96, 97, 2003, 06, 13, 18, 19, 22 apart from in these years
In my experience when weather gets in a rut it’s inclined to stay there. Personally I could do with some sunshine, so could my veg. 😢
Before the days of computer modelling the general rule of thumb was exactly as you say.
I've seen one butterfly in my garden and very few bees this year. That's despite the garden being set up to attract them. Roll on next summer.
Same, no insects to speak of at all, very poor form
@@nuffseed596very noticeable on the lack of insects. In the 70’s I rode my motorbike to Scotland one summer. I stepped off after 120 miles and my visor was covered in flies. That hasn’t happened for YEARS.
I rode for 1400 miles in France last month and I got rained on, but again hardly any flies on the bike’s screen
That was it! That was the butterfly that messed up all the weather patterns then.
Same here, I've seen no butterfly's and very few bees. Very worrying.
Same here, 1 bee and 2 butterflies
Has Brexit meant that the Azores high has to deal with higher levels of bureaucracy and paperwork, thus it's just decided to stay in the mid Atlantic?
On a more serious note;
There must be some bigger force at play that is resulting in the jetstream doing what it has done this year (and a large part of last summer). Is it down to the Northern Ice Cap warming and creating a lesser temperature differential? The modelling seems to repeatedly hint at a high forming to the SW, but every time it seems to be thwarted by the jetsream and a low system forcing it away again.
Has been a fantastic summer so far for outdoor pursuits temps have been nice not overly hot long may it continue
@metoffice how unprecedented has this past year of endless low pressure systems been? The last period of stable high pressure was in September 2023, since then (bar the odd few days here and there) it's been endless wind, cloud and rain and below average temperatures. And is there much evidence that climate change is actually making our climate in the UK even cooler, wetter and cloudier than it already is?
There is a theory that climate change will weaken the jet stream due to polar amplification. A weaker jet stream will meander more frequently and is more likely to get locked in place for periods of time causing blocked weather patterns. It is blocked weather patterns that result in persistent anomalous weather conditions. Over the last decade or so blocked weather patterns and persistence of one type of weather in the UK seems to have become more frequent. We almost seem to have a hybrid combination of a temperate and seasonal wet/dry climate, with the timing of the wet and dry seasons random.
I'm beginning to think you guys also sell used cars😂😂😂
Is this to do with the lack of temperature contrast between the polar regions and the lower latitudes within the North Atlantic?
Not even a hypothesis about what is causing the jetstream to meander south is causing some frustration, if I am being honest.
It’s strange that it only goes south around mostly the uk then heads north with no contrast just long periods of bad weather
They used to talk about this, but don't anymore. The warmer the artic the less the contrast in temperatures, so the weaker the Jetstream. This causes it to meander and move further south, which is bad for our weather. Ironically the solution is to reverse the global warming, to make our summers better again 😂
It all to do with the lack of temperature.
Makes you wonder if the tonga eruption back in 2022 is also playing a part in it with how much moisture it chucked up into the atmosphere
Theres been no summer at all. Ive been frozen and had the heating on. Its mad.
Move out of Scotland. It hasn´t even been that bad down south, just a bit dull
@@jgl9050 what? Where did I say I was living in Scotland?
You mentioned you had the heating on. Well it hasn´t even been cold at all.
@@jgl9050 and from that, you got that I was in Scotland?
Fabulous deduction skills there. You should join the met police.
Please explain to me why some people like wind and rain in summer
Weather hasn't been great, but I rather have this weather than to hot.
You need to move to Norway mate
i'd suggest re-calibrating your model !!!! talk about blinding us with confusion.
Some of the trees where I live, their leaves are already stared to turn less green just like autumn
Actually have you noticed how few flies and blue bottles there are ? Result of a summer I'd say :D
And when they're all gone, so are we.
We have never had so many mosquitoes.
More good news, I don't know why I watch, its depressing
would i be right in thinking that when i was younger ( - 30 - 40 years ago) the jet stream was much more stable and often sat above the british isles ?
There was a run of terrible summers in the 80's 85-88 dreadful!!
@@mattcrispin6737 sure . what i am trying to get at is the stability of the jet stream , now and then.
@@they.call.me.abraham Yeh, I agree with you, it's getting stuck more that in the past.
My plants are not growing very fast. They don’t know it’s summer.
Mine are doing great, had more strawberries than ever before. Not too hot, mild enough to get going early in the spring and plenty of water. South West Wales has been lovely.
It isnt
1978 was a cool summer fantastic winter followed
Great 🙄
`British summers are notoriously variable from year to year, with or without global warming` - so how do we know that global warming is really happening?
Because theBBC says so
Because the globe is much bigger than the UK and on average it is clearly warming.
@@metofficeyes but the uk isn’t
Trust us to be the only place on earth where the weather isn't getting warmer
@@metoffice 👍🏻
This is just not on, get that jet stream aimed properly. Come on, we need some summery weather. Soggy! Hmph.
Fingers crossed for Fairford Airshow a week on Saturday 🤞
same here!
Given the trend so far.. it’ll rain, and feel chilly 👎🏼🌧️
I'm banking on it being as wet and miserable as 2023. I've not even booked a ticket yet, such is my low expectation of it being ok for that weekend. :/
your map says 18 degrees over North Lincolnshire at 1500hrs, its 1530hrs now and the temperature in North Lincolnshire is 12 degrees, with a heavy blanket of cloud, could the met office get it any wronger?
We dont get summers here in the uk anymore
Please 🙏 I've had enough of forever autumn!
So far this year we have had two weeks of nice weather 🌤 in the North East & then the odd half day sunshine ☀️ & the rest has been 💨⛈🌦🌧💧☔️👎🏻. Might as well shut the blinds & put up the 🎄🎅🦌☃️❄️🎁
Why don’t you just say summer is cancelled
It's all just a guessing game.
I guess
Whenever it’s meant to get better it gets worse I have zero tomatoes growing on my allotment this year unprecedented never had this before they are barely flowering . I feel like I have wasted months of hard work
I strongly disagree with the intro global warming is affecting the position of the jet stream
Oh! so you're the expert?
Are you a meteorologist? I'd love to see your take on why you disagree.
The British Isles extreme (average) weather
Those of us who struggle with hot weather are extraordinarily grateful for this coolerness.
💯 I'm loving it tbh
I'm not even asking for hot, just a nice, mostly dry, warm and sunny summer would be great. Think picnic weather.
100%
Thanks Aidan. Brilliant explanation and so interesting to see the model progression over time.
For anyone North of Birmingham August has never really been a summer month. We have to accept that we won't get a summer this year.
Looking forward to September. We'll be away from this bl00dy horrible weather for a fortnight.
Thanks for sharing your U.K. weather. I was surprised to receive this.
Not as much as us
I have a question, is anyone at the Met monitoring the relationship between the AMOC and the weather above it, especially our half of the AMOC at the northern end of the Atlantic. I know the AMOC itself is being monitored using buoys that measure the water flow, temp at various depths. Because some models suggest that the changing AMOC if slowed will bring cooler weather to Europe. Is this what we are seeing?
Every day, there wrong just look out the window now!
It urks me everytime after 6-7 pm, cloudy all day then bam almost no wind and clear skies 😅 I've noticed it alot this year. It's like we need to get the night time weather flipped over with the day weather
Great extended forecast! A suggestion for a future Deep Dive: What are high/low pressure and how do they interact?
Depressing forecast 😊
@@markrichards7164 Great forecast of depressing weather ;)
Sick and tired of this weather now its affecting the bee,s pollinating plants ive not seen any in my garden this year
I bloody enjoyed watching this even though we are experiencing a trapped vortex. Which sounds a bit uncomfortable and means we might get a bit damp down south on Saturday afternoon
Best explanation of the UK weather forecast this year.
Jet stream 👍
The rain is really testing my new roof... 😊
I like when a Met presenter introduces themselves by name, Aiden. I missed that. Thank you and thanks for the forecast. Go well.
Thank you, Aidan
Not the forecast I wanted to hear but a great video nonetheless. Thanks Aidan and team.
At 3:31 it was heavy rain all day in the south, by 4:14 we had "very little rain on Friday for a change, quite soggy in SE by end of Friday". I fail to see how it can be both scenarios ?
Thank you for the always anticipated 10 dayer.... any idea when we may know with more certainty if the optimistic or nonoptimistic forecast will prevail?
Looks like a repeat of last year’s awful July, only without the lovely June that preceded it. 🙄
Thanks for another great 10-day trend video, Aidan. Settled weather would be helpful for outdoor construction work but it is what it is.
Just wondering if the trend this summer is particularly intriguing or interesting to you and your colleagues? Maybe it's very mundane. Most people I speak to are pretty fed up with it.
Seems to be very similar to last year - very mild for most of the year and then - in summer - we're mostly in the relatively cooler, wetter weather to the north of the jet stream. Is this a sign of things to come? Are the extreme temperature ranges in the US driving the jet stream further south in summer than we might have previously expected?
Interesting description of upper / lower pressure and model uncertainties at the end.
Thinking that the Cold Blob in the atlantic where the AMOC is getting weaker has something to do with jet stream position.
When you talk about compared to average which 30-year dataset do you use.?
Hi Aidan
What might your prediction be for Devon on 4th August?
I know it’s way off but any ideas???
Mandy nr Exeter
Summer of 2024 in Aberdeen will be on Monday, 15 July between the hours of 13:00 and 21:00. All are invited, but please bring an umbrella.
You still haven't answered my question. I'll try again I live in Derby obviously the east midlands. When you forecast the weather it's always the north of country or the South. So is Derby classed as the north or south 🤔🤔. ??. Thank you
At some point the optimistic solution must be right though? Not because it's inevitable, but because it's offered as a legitimate solution to the evolution of the atmosphere over the next 10 days.
Is there a forcing, a background driver or a known model bias that allows us to rate the pessimistic solution more likely than its share of the ensemble output?
There are way too many factors for a model to identify and track, and some factors change rapidly - which the model has to adapt to as a baseline for a new output. Therefore the most recent model output is looked at to be "the best" as it is the most up-to-date and accurate to current conditions.
So low pressure has no problem toppling us but the high pressure weather front is trying to avoid us! Got it!
Really sick of this weather. If only we could control the weather haha. At least I had 2 scorching hot weeks in Turkey in June, I'll wait for summer next year.
We don’t need hot temperatures in the low 20’s is just fine even felt a bit too warm in it I just don’t like the rain!!!
Lucky for you, some of us are stuck here 365.
How frequent are trapped vortices of this nature.? I guess they predominate in the summer months when the jet stream is generally weak. A winter polar vortex I guess would minimise the probability. We seem to have had variations on this theme before in 2024.
Last year was el nino, which meant warmer than normal this year. This year is La nina, the opposite of El nino, which means this weather is perfectly normal next year, which will be more settled and near to normal
what about us in the channel islands ? we never get a mention. and i do not mean Jersey either
Seems to be a regular occurrence low pressure and really don’t check the forecasts much now as they get updated and change by the hour. It changes that much I just go out and wait and see what it’s like. Everywhere else seems to get their seasons but we just get one big season all the time. I really don’t trust it anymore unfortunately.
Well Aiden, are you saying 40 days of rain after St Swithin’s Day?
What's causing the jet stream to sit south in summer? In summer the jet should be north of the UK?
Oh dear- I won’t blame forecasters but I do hope summer gets going soon. No decent summer before another round of autumn and winter is such a depressing prospect.
Yes, all 8 months of it
Dull Dull Dull.... was hoping for a dry ride to Cornwall on Friday.... your mp had the highest rainfall just where I was heading... you couldn't make it up!!
Been un somerset this week, weather was not how they said it was!
Many thanks Aidan, not a great forecast but very well given. One thing I keep in mind is the fact that you’re all affected in just the same way by the weather, even more so that you too have children. Also, if it is all down to Climate Change or Global Warming…
Someone else’s question please: Why is it that the Jet Stream is so far south??
Thanks a lot Aidan and the Met. Take care everyone 😊
5:28 Possibilities for very localised Tornadic conditions???
Cheers Aidy, hoping the settled weather comes in as off to the tippy top of Scotland for a bit smash a like folks. ✌🏾
Try and remember the summers of 2022 and 2018. People forget what a great run of hot Julys we had between 2013 and 2022, bar a couple of years. Having returned to the U.K in 2016, this is the first year that I have been depressed by the weather. Remember coming back to the U.K from Sri Lanka in July 2013 and 2014 and being amazed how hot and sunny it was. M
Don't appreciate the fact that the deviation from temperature average band they use is +3/-3 C in a single colour block. You can look at the colour map and say - ok an average summer day. That'll do. But that could encompass a day of 16C or 22C - one is very cool and chilly day out, the other a very pleasant and warm one. Useless
Its depressing to watch Europe have a fantastic hot summer while here july is a wright off
So we are due 30 days of wet weather oh bugger no summer this year
Not a "subtle shift". That is a major shift with a different outcome.
Thank you v much.
Svalbard is quite nice this time of year 😂 🥶 😱 ❄, oh no its the upper level vortex 😮
Great presentation
Thank you Aidan
So, It's a Ten Day Trend that has to be updated every 12 hours or so? Irony at it's best.
No they're not variable. We get a day or two of sun in May, then it rains or drizzles until it snows. The only thing that's variable is the forecast.
Please bring nice weather in Sept as doing lands end to John ogroats - Indian summer???
….and extreme weather. Ring any bells for this year? 👁
lovely balanced analysis ;)