Hey Dave. I really enjoy your videos. I have gone back and watched your videos from the past, including the one on Jan. 13, 2022 where you explained the Hindenburg omen signal. Will you make a video if it signals a potential crash? I know you use other indicators as well, but I will be on the lookout for future videos that warn us about a severe correction or crash. We are bound to get one eventually. I hope you will give us a heads up
Don't simply retire from something; have something to retire to. Start saving, keep saving, and stick to investments. Everyone should have BTC in their portfolio
Hi Dave. Always enjoy your videos and your analysis with the charts. Thank you. I always find the Hindenburg omen indicator very intriguing. Please do a special video if the signal fires again to confirm it in the next month. Thank you very much. Happy Thanksgiving!!!
Going half cash and the other half about 85 percent stocks, 15 percent bonds that I have had for years. Expensive market, plus uncertainties with how tariffs and deportations will affect the consumer. Odds are we at least have a reset when inflation creeps back up.
Speaking of amazing indicators, I notice that Pring's Bottom Fisher has just triggered a "buy" signal, although a very shallow one (barely getting below -20). I watch this weekly but nearly always miss noticing it then I kick myself as it usually indicates more positive upward movement in the future.
Will make a note to do a video on this at some point! Pring's Bottom Fisher uses the Dow 30 members so telling us that value stocks are starting to work? Will have to dig into this more... D
Awesome video that Noone is able to do.what you do..w many negative indicators against the overinflated market the bubble has to popped soon..please let us know the second indicators coming in ..Love your channel..thank you
Super helpful Video! Part of my own daily process has been to build scripts that open up various stock charts pages so I can browse them every day. Since I live in Asia, I have ours an hours of “pre-study” time before the market opens, but I have to go to bed around two hours after market open, which presents challenges in my treating. But I’ve gotten much better at it!
More importantly, the S&P 500 Index stands at a higher valuation than in 2021 - at 30 times earnings. Also, the only other time, since 1880, that the S&P 500 Index sold at a higher valuation was in late 1999 and early 2000. There is incredible risk in owning the S&P 500 Index.
And the Buffett ratio. When the money playing the market is in excess of GDP, there are too many participants, and "everybody is becoming a brilliant stock picker". I remember this warning back in the late 1990s, it just was not referred to as the Buffett ratio at the time.
With the likely political-economic changes coming up, I'll be interested more than ever in your insights, Dave! I've learned an incredible amount from your talks, thanks!
Hi Dave, how to cope with overtrading. Do you take a fixed number of trades per week/month or do you immediately get into the next trade once a stop is hit ? Do you have any risk threshold each month ?
Like what exactly? In 2022 we had supply shocks and massive inflation and a bunch of morons incessantly yammering about a recession coming. So much so that they caused a freaking bear market, less than two years after another bear market, despite the fact that there was almost zero unwilling unemployment. You think there's going to be a 3rd bear market in 4 years? Good luck with that.
That bear market of 22 was extremely difficult to play. It would make a lower low, followed by almost making a new high over and over and by the time you felt comfortable enough to short the whole damn thing reversed into a super strong bull makrket.
I averaged down methodically in 2022. I had a really good weighted average to hold at the start of 2023. But I got out around S&P 4800. Strong uptrends start worrying me. I need to do better at believing the M2 money supply. When the Fed is expanding money supply, the excess ends up in the stock market.
@Avo7bProject same here. I always sell too soon. Money expands stock market expands. It's hard to have faith. I always feel like it's all a rugpull setup
Dunno what to think. First, I thought this is kind of crazy, why sell fear. But then as the video went on it didn’t sound too far off. NYSI and NASI haven’t been too hot. So if breadth doesn’t expand quickly, market may be in trouble. Right now it’s all about imaginary nuclear reactor companies and AI - but NVDA not acting well, forget MSFT. Enjoyed the video by the way.
Think for yourself. He gave you an indicator that is wrong about 95% of the time. But that doesn't matter. Whatever you're in, know where to get out, know when to buy back in. Know when to just add more because the market tries to scare you out at all times, and if you know your companies and aren't in it for 20 minutes, you know when things are on sale.
Hell yes to the title, we might hold up through and it might only be a run of the mill correction, and or pull back, we might even rally harder afterwards but make zero mistakes about it, we will barf hard early 2025 mark it
3:25 I suppose every chart watcher settles on some favorite averages. I tend to gravitate towards the 10 day just to get a gut sense of direction. In other words, if the price action itself doesn't look obvious enough, the 10 day more often than not, "is the current trend". Less than 10 days makes too many daily squiggles. More than 10 days becomes something to measure against, for overbought/oversold/touching/bottoming observations.
We just had a nearly 10% pullback in the SPY in August and a 5% pullback in September. How many pullbacks do you need? You're not going to get another in 2024.
I think his explanation is that it's not a "crash ahead" yardstick, more of a "these are toppy conditions" yardstick. 2022 wasn't a crash, just a market adjusting to where deeper support was before resuming the bull run.
First of all, go Bucks. Secondly, this signal could coincide with the 10 year 3 month yield curve uninverting. Which would be more signals of a sketchy 2025.
I noticed this similarity as well, so I expect a pullback this January/February, but trump will be good for the corps and the wealthy which is usually good for capital assets
Thanks David, good info explained well. Ya I have some concern going into EOY and early next. S&P trading over 22 Forward Earnings. Peter Lynch yardstick market was very expensive & probably overbought when FPE over 20. I think we stay bullish mainly on Trump RA RA end of year and probably have the usual after Christmas rally. My other concerns are long term rates going up, maybe the Fed pauses its rate cutting cycle or slows it down. 2/10 UST yields are getting close to another inversion which does not seem bullish to me. If Trump randomly fires like a million Fed employees many of whom are veterans I don't think that spells bull market either. Hopefully in long run Govt is more efficient but in short & mid term I say very messy. Good Luck
So Hindenburg warnings don't result in any top unless something actually happens to cause that top? Got it. Not concerned. By the way, a break of the 21-week MA is so much easier. Why are you overcomplicating things?
This was a technical presentation, but he could have also overlaid charts of the Federal Funds rate and M2 money supply. It's not rocket science that rising interest rates create headwinds.
the market only goes up, because there is too much money in circulation, which is not realistic, they only pump the market up, because they do not want the market to go down, all the pension money in the world is in the market, that is why they keep the market high, the value of the market is also much too high than the actual value, buffet sees that and is out with a lot of money, for a long time, but the pumping continues, many specialists have been calling for a crash for more than a year, but the market continues to rise unrealistically, small corrections and up again, I think there will be no more crash, classic trading is a thing of the past, there are only a few who pump in an organized way, the big banks and the government, who agree on that and blackrock, 10,000 billion, so keep pumping
SPX either completed, or almost completed an A-B-C up: 2,200 in Mar 2020 + 2,600 to 4,800 in Jan 2021. 2,600 plus 3,500 in Oct 2022 to 6,100. The first stopping action was Jul 16/Aug 5. Can SPX go higher : yes !
th-cam.com/video/QHXqR8manRE/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared Interesting last time at 5k now at 6K ... Thanks Dave for keeping us on alert and I agree with next year ... we shall see.
well CPI was 9% and the fed was at the start of a rate hiking cycle. I'd say conditions a little different today. The only thing that can turn the market around in 2025 is a black swan event
Would disagree actually. 2022 was a midterm, 2025 is a start of a new administration, and one that the American people really are hopeful for. If anything, I'm more willing to believe that it's more likely the end of 2025 is more like the end of 2021, but it's too early to tell. Regardless, I think we can all agree that a market goes up until it doesn't, and as of now, it's still going up. More money is lost prepping for potential crashes and doing redundant actions than in actual crashes.
End of 2021 got ridiculous with no sensible place left to put money in so money got piled into shiba inu and NFTs. Same is happening now with some fool dropping six million dollars on a banana taped on a wall. I think we’re at the crest of the roller coaster.
@@Seegie16 You're absolutely right about the 2022 bear market.! Even though the bear markets of 2000-2003 and 2008-09 were way worse in terms of magnitude, they were much easier to trade as it was more orderly.
@@kendoman3150 Ah, memories. I made a bold move and put 100% into SPY around 88 a week before the Iraq War II began. Made about 13% in two weeks. Then got out and stayed in cash for a few years. I was unemployed at the time, and felt lucky enough to make a year's worth of gains in such a short time. Looking back on it I should have at least dollar-cost sold as the market rose. But it did show me the folly of being so nervous about protecting paper gains, and I did sell slower in later recoveries at least.
Not just results of a metric, but the history of how it is derived. Explained in a clear and concise way, that's what makes your videos so valuable.
I appreciate the very kind words! D
Hey Dave. I really enjoy your videos. I have gone back and watched your videos from the past, including the one on Jan. 13, 2022 where you explained the Hindenburg omen signal. Will you make a video if it signals a potential crash? I know you use other indicators as well, but I will be on the lookout for future videos that warn us about a severe correction or crash. We are bound to get one eventually. I hope you will give us a heads up
Thanks for the kind words! Yep will be looking for signs, to be sure D
Don't simply retire from something; have something to retire to. Start saving, keep saving, and stick to investments. Everyone should have BTC in their portfolio
"Start saving, keep saving" is great guidance for young investors!! D
I am impressed with your update on these stocks, now my question is which is best to buy at this time. I have some liquid assets to diversify.
Thanks so much for watching! D
Glad to see you back and safe at home base with charts in the background and lights and all. Great video, Thanks.
Thank you! Great to be home D
Hi Dave. Always enjoy your videos and your analysis with the charts. Thank you. I always find the Hindenburg omen indicator very intriguing. Please do a special video if the signal fires again to confirm it in the next month. Thank you very much. Happy Thanksgiving!!!
Going half cash and the other half about 85 percent stocks, 15 percent bonds that I have had for years. Expensive market, plus uncertainties with how tariffs and deportations will affect the consumer. Odds are we at least have a reset when inflation creeps back up.
Inflation data this week could provide some signal... D
Most excellent Dave, you are a master talent in explaining complex matters and making them simple.
I appreciate those very kind words! D
Speaking of amazing indicators, I notice that Pring's Bottom Fisher has just triggered a "buy" signal, although a very shallow one (barely getting below -20). I watch this weekly but nearly always miss noticing it then I kick myself as it usually indicates more positive upward movement in the future.
Will make a note to do a video on this at some point! Pring's Bottom Fisher uses the Dow 30 members so telling us that value stocks are starting to work? Will have to dig into this more... D
Awesome video that Noone is able to do.what you do..w many negative indicators against the overinflated market the bubble has to popped soon..please let us know the second indicators coming in ..Love your channel..thank you
Thanks for the very kind words! Stay tuned D
Super helpful Video! Part of my own daily process has been to build scripts that open up various stock charts pages so I can browse them every day. Since I live in Asia, I have ours an hours of “pre-study” time before the market opens, but I have to go to bed around two hours after market open, which presents challenges in my treating. But I’ve gotten much better at it!
Love that approach! Daily and weekly routines are KEY. D
More importantly, the S&P 500 Index stands at a higher valuation than in 2021 - at 30 times earnings. Also, the only other time, since 1880, that the S&P 500 Index sold at a higher valuation was in late 1999 and early 2000. There is incredible risk in owning the S&P 500 Index.
And the Buffett ratio. When the money playing the market is in excess of GDP, there are too many participants, and "everybody is becoming a brilliant stock picker". I remember this warning back in the late 1990s, it just was not referred to as the Buffett ratio at the time.
Always risk in holding stocks! Great points thanks for sharing this D
With the likely political-economic changes coming up, I'll be interested more than ever in your insights, Dave! I've learned an incredible amount from your talks, thanks!
Thanks so much for the kind words! Look forward to navigating these markets with all of you D
Hi Dave, how to cope with overtrading. Do you take a fixed number of trades per week/month or do you immediately get into the next trade once a stop is hit ? Do you have any risk threshold each month ?
Added to the mailbag and look forward to digging into this on a future episode! D
I think it all depends on monetary policy, the fed has the power to keep markets rising or at least maintaining gains AND they can create another 2022
Liquidity was a HUGE influence in 2021... and 2024?...
Dave really, really good video , were getting close to a top. Really like your show!!!!!
Thanks so much for watching! D
Been waiting for sentiment to get Super Bull. Needs about SPX 6100-6200. Personally expecting to see a short term top in Jan 25.
The Super Bull is not till February. Usually the 2nd Sunday of the month.
Jan top seems to line up very well with the evidence to date... D
I find your perspective valuable. Thanks
I appreciate that! D
There's more signs for expecting 2025 to be like 2022. Thank you for sharing the Hindenburg.
Like what exactly? In 2022 we had supply shocks and massive inflation and a bunch of morons incessantly yammering about a recession coming. So much so that they caused a freaking bear market, less than two years after another bear market, despite the fact that there was almost zero unwilling unemployment. You think there's going to be a 3rd bear market in 4 years? Good luck with that.
Absolutely! Thx for watching D
Thank you for the education!
Cheers and thanks for watching! D
What this most looks like is November 2012, 2016, and 2020. Throw a monthly chart on the SPY or Q's for those.
Well, I hope it's 2012! D
That bear market of 22 was extremely difficult to play. It would make a lower low, followed by almost making a new high over and over and by the time you felt comfortable enough to short the whole damn thing reversed into a super strong bull makrket.
I averaged down methodically in 2022. I had a really good weighted average to hold at the start of 2023. But I got out around S&P 4800. Strong uptrends start worrying me. I need to do better at believing the M2 money supply. When the Fed is expanding money supply, the excess ends up in the stock market.
@Avo7bProject same here. I always sell too soon. Money expands stock market expands. It's hard to have faith. I always feel like it's all a rugpull setup
Brutal 10-month period for sure D
Dunno what to think. First, I thought this is kind of crazy, why sell fear. But then as the video went on it didn’t sound too far off. NYSI and NASI haven’t been too hot. So if breadth doesn’t expand quickly, market may be in trouble. Right now it’s all about imaginary nuclear reactor companies and AI - but NVDA not acting well, forget MSFT. Enjoyed the video by the way.
Think for yourself. He gave you an indicator that is wrong about 95% of the time. But that doesn't matter. Whatever you're in, know where to get out, know when to buy back in. Know when to just add more because the market tries to scare you out at all times, and if you know your companies and aren't in it for 20 minutes, you know when things are on sale.
Mega cap growth not looking great right about now! D
Enjoyed it! Nice discussion.
Appreciate that! D
Thank you David.
Thanks so much for watching! D
Hell yes to the title, we might hold up through and it might only be a run of the mill correction, and or pull back, we might even rally harder afterwards but make zero mistakes about it, we will barf hard early 2025 mark it
hahaha will look for technical signs for a "barf hard" reversal D
3:25 I suppose every chart watcher settles on some favorite averages. I tend to gravitate towards the 10 day just to get a gut sense of direction. In other words, if the price action itself doesn't look obvious enough, the 10 day more often than not, "is the current trend". Less than 10 days makes too many daily squiggles. More than 10 days becomes something to measure against, for overbought/oversold/touching/bottoming observations.
Big fan of smoothing out price action to focus more on signal than noise! D
🎉 Will you make a video as soon as the signal is flashing? 🙏
Stay tuned for full coverage! :) D
Great stuff. Keep up the good work
Appreciate that! D
Hope you post immediately with an update if we get the second "omen"?
Stay tuned! Will keep you updated D
Great video thanks
Glad you enjoyed this one! D
I’m too hedged. Would really enjoy a decent pullback. We’ll see. Thanks for the video!
We just had a nearly 10% pullback in the SPY in August and a 5% pullback in September. How many pullbacks do you need? You're not going to get another in 2024.
@@smartplays13 January works for me.
Could be the best thing to happen if you're long-term bullish! D
EXCELLENT VIDEO!!!
So glad you enjoyed this one! D
Yes, hopefully.
We shall see..... D
markets don't go down during low volume holiday weeks....
Classic playbook for holiday week is lighter volume and generally higher D
Starts at 10::10
Early part of video is setting the stage for Hindenburg Omen discussion! D
What would cause a crash in this bull market? I think you are incorrect but no can predict the future so we will just have to wait and see
I think his explanation is that it's not a "crash ahead" yardstick, more of a "these are toppy conditions" yardstick. 2022 wasn't a crash, just a market adjusting to where deeper support was before resuming the bull run.
Higher inflation, escalation in Middle East, maybe just more sellers than buyers? So many possibilities..... D
@@DKellerCMT I see
Nov 1st was sooooo close to making a signal, but only 0.024% new lows.
SOOOOOO close. D
First of all, go Bucks. Secondly, this signal could coincide with the 10 year 3 month yield curve uninverting. Which would be more signals of a sketchy 2025.
GO BUCKS! Great point on inverted yield curve getting back to normal shape D
I noticed this similarity as well, so I expect a pullback this January/February, but trump will be good for the corps and the wealthy which is usually good for capital assets
Trump tariffs are the biggest question mark for me, could be quite inflationary... D
Don't fight the Fed as interest rates are coming down!
Don't Fight the Fed... and Don't Fight the Tape! D
I’m all in! 😅
I’m shorting hand over fist! 😂😂
The trend is your friend! D
Thanks David, good info explained well. Ya I have some concern going into EOY and early next. S&P trading over 22 Forward Earnings. Peter Lynch yardstick market was very expensive & probably overbought when FPE over 20. I think we stay bullish mainly on Trump RA RA end of year and probably have the usual after Christmas rally. My other concerns are long term rates going up, maybe the Fed pauses its rate cutting cycle or slows it down. 2/10 UST yields are getting close to another inversion which does not seem bullish to me. If Trump randomly fires like a million Fed employees many of whom are veterans I don't think that spells bull market either. Hopefully in long run Govt is more efficient but in short & mid term I say very messy. Good Luck
The question is how much Trump optimism is already priced in?......... D
So Hindenburg warnings don't result in any top unless something actually happens to cause that top? Got it. Not concerned. By the way, a break of the 21-week MA is so much easier. Why are you overcomplicating things?
Not sure I would summarize exactly that way... but thanks for watching! :) D
A pullback is coming into January...or even into Apr-March
Thanks for sharing this! D
Just have your stops set
ALWAYS! D
“The market goes up until it doesn’t” Just makes it seem so simple. 😂
This was a technical presentation, but he could have also overlaid charts of the Federal Funds rate and M2 money supply. It's not rocket science that rising interest rates create headwinds.
hahahaha you can quote me on that D
the market only goes up, because there is too much money in circulation, which is not realistic, they only pump the market up, because they do not want the market to go down, all the pension money in the world is in the market, that is why they keep the market high, the value of the market is also much too high than the actual value, buffet sees that and is out with a lot of money, for a long time, but the pumping continues, many specialists have been calling for a crash for more than a year, but the market continues to rise unrealistically, small corrections and up again, I think there will be no more crash, classic trading is a thing of the past, there are only a few who pump in an organized way, the big banks and the government, who agree on that and blackrock, 10,000 billion, so keep pumping
Good luck with that! Simply insanity to think that the market can’t crash!
The market can and will go down! D
"Oh , The humanity"......
An ominous name to be sure! D
Interesting video, but I feel like you could’ve done this in less than five minutes.
Thanks for the feedback and thanks for watching! D
Seems like 1999
Party!! D
what is happen in this world , you say one year ago teh crash coming , see the hindenburg , that is classic trading that is the past
As we discussed in the video, never got the confirmation signal! D
2020📈
2021📈
2022📉
2023📈
2024📈
2025 🤷♂️
Excellent use of emojis. D
SPX either completed, or almost completed an A-B-C up: 2,200 in Mar 2020 + 2,600 to 4,800 in Jan 2021. 2,600
plus 3,500 in Oct 2022 to 6,100. The first stopping action was Jul 16/Aug 5. Can SPX go higher : yes !
It’s over my friend! Your greed is palpable
Not a big Elliott Wave aficionado, but I appreciate you sharing this! D
Looking for opportunities
To be sure! D
Anticipation: will Europe monetary be blown? If so, then watch dollars flow to U.S.
Definitely a possibility! D
Watch ~7% drop to end the year. 😂
Certainly a possibility! D
th-cam.com/video/QHXqR8manRE/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared
Interesting last time at 5k now at 6K ... Thanks Dave for keeping us on alert and I agree with next year ... we shall see.
We've had a number of initial signals without a confirmation. Has been a crazy bullish year!! D
well CPI was 9% and the fed was at the start of a rate hiking cycle. I'd say conditions a little different today. The only thing that can turn the market around in 2025 is a black swan event
Very different environment, no doubt! D
Always periodically come out and scare people. Come on man, just relax and enjoy the bull market, until price breaks key levels.
Not my goal to scare, definitely my goal to inform! D
Would disagree actually. 2022 was a midterm, 2025 is a start of a new administration, and one that the American people really are hopeful for.
If anything, I'm more willing to believe that it's more likely the end of 2025 is more like the end of 2021, but it's too early to tell.
Regardless, I think we can all agree that a market goes up until it doesn't, and as of now, it's still going up. More money is lost prepping for potential crashes and doing redundant actions than in actual crashes.
Very different place in the election cycle, totally fair! D
i think we finally top in the next 30 days. What a ride. History repeats and we get a second trigger signal from Hindenburg. Go OSU. GL
HUGE win for the Buckeyes this weekend! Now it's M*ch*g*n week. Thanks for watching D
End of 2021 got ridiculous with no sensible place left to put money in so money got piled into shiba inu and NFTs. Same is happening now with some fool dropping six million dollars on a banana taped on a wall. I think we’re at the crest of the roller coaster.
2022 was a tough bear market. It was a whipsaw crushing bears and bulls and at the very bottom the bears got smoked. Id much rather a crash like 2020
@@Seegie16 You're absolutely right about the 2022 bear market.! Even though the bear markets of 2000-2003 and 2008-09 were way worse in terms of magnitude, they were much easier to trade as it was more orderly.
@@kendoman3150 Ah, memories. I made a bold move and put 100% into SPY around 88 a week before the Iraq War II began. Made about 13% in two weeks. Then got out and stayed in cash for a few years. I was unemployed at the time, and felt lucky enough to make a year's worth of gains in such a short time. Looking back on it I should have at least dollar-cost sold as the market rose. But it did show me the folly of being so nervous about protecting paper gains, and I did sell slower in later recoveries at least.
That may be the most frothy news headline I've seen yet... D