The S&P 500 and the 200-Day Moving Average
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.พ. 2025
- The S&P 500 index is once again testing its 200-day moving average. In this technical analysis exercise, we'll discuss three ways to use the 200-day moving average and review historical signals of when these indicators have turned bearish or bullish. What's next for the S&P 500?
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Dave helps active investors and financial advisors make more informed investment decisions, inject more discipline into their investment process, and enrich relationships with their clients. Feel better about making better decisions!
Dave is the Chief Market Strategist at StockCharts.com, where he helps investors minimize behavioral biases through technical analysis. He is a frequent host on StockCharts TV, and he relates mindfulness techniques to investor decision making in his blog, The Mindful Investor.
He's also President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC, a boutique investment research and consulting firm focused on managing risk through market awareness. He combines the strengths of technical analysis, behavioral finance, and data visualization to identify investment opportunities and enrich relationships between advisors and clients.
Dave was previously a Managing Director of Research for Fidelity Investments in Boston, a Past President of the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Association, and started in the financial industry just after the March 2000 market top at Bloomberg in New York.
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Thanks for this. I’m a big fan of old, simple techniques like this to avoid large losses.
We are on the same page!! D
Dave, thanks for the recap of the slope of the 200, I had watched, but the value had no sunk in. The question I have is whether the 50 over 200 cross and at that point the 200 must have a positive slope, provides enough to get through the resistance at 4100 area. I look at the vix and think yes, I look at the SP yield spread against 2 year treasuries and turn no. 2 year treasuries is a bigger Gorilla than the VIX. I am 3600 before 4400. Thanks for making me think.
Mmm, got that wrong had a look and it is possible for the 50 to cross above a down sloping 200
Saw your second comment and that's correct. We usually think of an idealized crossover pattern but strange things can happen during countertrend moves! D
thx for the content. to me, weekly RSI looks good, weekly MACD looks good, price action looks good (higher low, sort of a reverse H&S formation, breadth improved), I would tend to think we continue our up move, my first target is 4300 then we will see from there (4300 is also the 618 retracement target of the entire bear market decline so far, so it will be interesting). whether this is a bear market rally or the bottom has been complete and we can test previous all time high is too early to call.
So far SPX on track for 4300- thanks for sharing this! D
@@DKellerCMT yes...but it has been quite choppy... anyway i have learnt to focus on price instead of the news and macro (have a background in the macro stuff when i worked)...but as individual trader i realize how the news, earnings and macro data be interpreted is not up to me, so why bother? just focus on the price instead...thx for all your videos again, very useful ✌✌
Excellent again, thank you very much, Dave.
Up or down 10% from here?
(a) The 50DMA has crossed above the 150DMA and both are sloping up, and
(b) There is an emerging pattern of higher highs and higher lows since October, but...
It needs to hit 4200 (20% above the October low) and close above an upward sloping 200DMA.
It looks promising, but Jerome Powell holds most of the cards.
Still waiting for the 200-day to slope higher......... D
Great stuff. Cheers!
Thanks so much for watching D
Thank you, Dave. I think down 10%.
What's interesting is 10% below current levels means ~3800 right at the Dec low... D
Superb Knowledge And Teaching Skills.Thank You Dave Sirr!!!
Appreciate the very kind words! D
Super stuff, thanks!
Thanks so much for watching! D
Check out this same technique on 2000-2003.
Simply using the SPX and 200-day moving average was a fantastic strategy from 1998-2008!
looks amazing but why do you use th 200 MA and not the 150 ?
Great question. 200-day MA by far the most widely used in the markets! D
Interesting. How does the 200 day moving average relate to market/ world instability? I guess the market likes stability, but with uncertainties about the upcoming election and all the current world insanity I'd have to guess the market isn't going up for a while.. just my uneducated wondering. Ty for the info!
Interesting question! High level thinking is "as long as we remain above an ascending 200-day moving average, things aren't getting that bad". And beyond that, it's about assessing the particular situation when the 200-day MA is tested! D
It's likely to go up from now.
Holding 4100 so far! D
very appropriate in Septembet2024.
Agreed and thanks for the comment! D