Jon, glad to see you safe. I live on the GulfCoast and understand these storms. Great show as usual. I’m agnostic on City Of Troy. Reminds me of the Mendelssohn hype in the KD. Don’t sleep on Senor Buscador and Sierra Leone.
V@@PastTheWireTVHey Jon I took Georgia Bulldogs plus 4.5 vs Texas I got a feeling ther gonna knock them off Will see .I like a few NFL games tomorrow I like Green Bay minus 2 vs Texans I like Detroit lions plus 2 vs Vikings I like 49ers minus 2 vs Chiefs N Jets minus 2 vs Pittsburgh Colts plus 3 vs Miami I usually don't like that many But my 2 best games are Jets minus 2 vs Pittsburgh n 49ers minus 2 vs KC.
Just lisen to yr whole show. Very nice Have alot to say because yr the best. But it would be long. Don't know if u had time. But there was alot u said that I'm on the same page and some stuff u might be on same page if I comment. No pity needed. Thks 4 all u do.
I think Chancer McPatrick already looks mature, like a Derby horse. But I like East Avenue and Citizen Bull. Citizen Bull's jockey sounds like he really likes that horse -- he said that horse was "loaded" after the half mile (in the 1 1\16th race that he just won). Bull stood energized, tall and solid muscle, in the winner's circle, so I just love his looks. He has that long neck and huge shoulder that is still in balance with a big rump. I love his conformation, so I am prejudiced in his favor, despite my brain saying Chancer and East Avenue are both slightly faster. I tried all week to study them. I just can't decide yet, so I will be looking hard for their workout times. I am over Ferocious -- moved him to "mid-pack" with others.
I gotta repeat this: Aiden O'Brien just gave an interview saying Troy is gonna "rock the Breeder'Cup!" The last horse I saw rock his stride was Flightline!!! Go watch it. There's a video of Flightline in his 4th race where you get a perfect look at his stride: His back hooves meet the spot where the front hooves hit the ground in the center of his barrell. (That is what Secretariat could do, because Secretariat could collect himself like a dressage horse, when he wanted do. It takes a horse with tremendous fitness, strength and balance to do collected dressage -- to step with back hooves into his front footsteps --and let alone, rock a gallop!!!! Secretarist, Flightline could do that. Are we going to see City of Troy do that?! I hope so. I THINK DO, because Aiden O'Brien is grinning like a possum. That man Never Smiles. And you, Jon, said once, all trainers believe in their own horses, so you can't always listen to them. But this time, i have to listen... He said that Ryan, the jockey, is going to turn Troy loose. He has problems stopping the horse, you know? It will be fun!!!
We hear the same thing every year: Some hotshot euro-horse who has never raced on dirt and never raced in the USA, is going to come over here and dominate the Yankee horses in the B.C. Classic. It's only happened about three times in 40 B.C. Classic races. Blah, blah, blah!
Aidan 0 Brien did not say COT is " Going to rock the breeders cup". He said in reply to a question about tactics in the race. He said " We' re going to let him rock" meaning he's going to let the horse loose from the gate. Just hate it when mis quote what was said. Get it right! O Brien is a fairly humble down to earth guy. Your misquote suggests arrogance and he's anything but that.
@@TheProfessorOfLife Aidan 0 Brien had 3 winners last year. Giants Causeway ( never raced on dirt) had the greatest classic winner in 50 yrs beat but for jockey dropping the damn reins 200 yards from line.
Wow Dylan Davis tearing it up today at Aqueduct 4 winners out of 6 races there few races left I think he's leading the meet He's such an improved Jockey way more consistent.
Chance Mcpatrick is Hampered by Delmar's Speed Biased 2YO stretching out Pastime Record's if you're not 1-2-3 turning for home it's really hard for a Closer which makes me like Tip Top Thomas at a Huge Price
Well, I think I heard J. Stettin say that Chancer McPatrick doesn't have to be a closer, but can run from other positions (I hope I am not misquoting him, but he knows a lot about this colt. I am not good at comparing track bias, speeds etc. But I did try to look at his times. He ran a mile in 136.51. Jonathan's Way ran a mile in the Iroquois in 136.08. Chancer beat Tip Top and Moplex well.
@@gretafields4706 One of the things I've learned is that final times don't mean much because there are too many factors involved. Setting aside the fact that they usually only run as fast as they need to, different tracks have different depths of cushion. The deeper the cushion, the slower the times.
I know. I really like to know their last furlong at least. I think Jon just said in this video, he looks at start and finish furlongs. He also uses Thoro-Graph numbers, which do analyze extra factors like track, weather...Everything.
@@gretafields4706 I'm not disagreeing with you. I was just opining that final times don't tell us much. One of the reasons I love horse racing and handicapping is the unpredictability of each race. Lots and lots of variables, for sure! Jon, Geo, and Jim are the best handicappers I've ever seen, bar none.
City of Troys form is rock solid, beat Bluestocking in the Juddmonte by over 8 lengths who has since won the Arc. If Calandagan wins the Champion stakes on Saturday then that'll strengten the form even more.
Next just ran a 5 furlong workout at 1.00 and cents at Florence, Ky. track!The video said Next may run in either BC Turf or BC Classic. They were undecided still. He has speed apparently, and stamina to boot.
The ONLY race that makes sense for Next is the G2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance race on the Breeder's Cup weekend undercard. He won that race in 2022, it's 13 furlongs, and it's on dirt. It makes no sense to switch Next over to the 12-furlong Breeder's Cup Turf, and it makes even less sense to run him in the 10-furlong BC Classic. He will get PUMMELED in the BC Classic and it's just not fair to Next to put him in a race against the top horses in the world that is less than 12 furlongs.
@@gretafields4706I don't agree with that guy Steven he thinks Next would get crushed in the Classic I disagree with him He might crush the entire field he's capable of that So what it's a shorter race
He just ran a 5 f. workout that looked good to me. I wish the handicappers would discuss Next. Have other marathoners dropped down in distance to win the BC?
I have watched enough of your shows to know that YOU KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. You keep saying "Get a seat for the seminar." Well, I guess I am an idiot, because I haven't found any way to sign up. I do not have a smart phone, only a PC. Thanks
That's not a knock on SL..just the styles look like out of the clouds....should be interesting..hopefully heChancer has a healthy future..Thanks again for the presentation JS
Forever young won his prep recently and looked solid . If City of Troy adapts to dirt he wins strictly on ratings he does seem to have this grabbing stride style suited to dirt ? The other Coolmore runner sierra leone could fill the final place spot
Giants Causeway had the great Tiznow beat but for jockey dropping the reins few hundred yards from the line. Aidan 0 Brien has said COT may be best hes trained. City of Troy will not lack for stamina. He has Justify and Galileo mare in breeding. He's probably been running on surfaces that have not suited him all year and still winning everything in Europe. However it will be horses first time on dirt. Even though Justify was great champion on dirt. His one bad race in the guineas, he got knocked around in stalls and Ryan Moore basically pulled him up. Ignore it. City of Troy is far away best horse in Europe. If ge takes to dirt he will win imo.
Hey Carl where you been Are you k Did you get my message about me killing it 2 weeks ago Made alot I hit a straight n box Exacta pd over 660 bks for just a 2 dollar bet I had 5 on it I had 7 win bets n 2 exactas anyway I got a guy like the guy that talks to you Easy goer. This guys name is Steven qr. Do you know him he's like Telling me Sierra Leone has no chance Hey did you read today's Geo Early pick in the Classic Im shocked because he's a huge Fierceness guy He's picking my horse Sierra Leone I'm happy about that He gave a few reasons why He said putting a gun to my head this is my pick right now without any post positions yet my pick can change he said Did you see it if not check it out hope you're doing good Pal stay in touch were getting close .
@@PastTheWireTVoh god here I go. In the classic I only two logical and correct bets to make. Don't want to sound like a no it all. That's derma sotogake to win or accross board and sierra leone place. May be in 3rd n 4th spots city of troy senor buscator if weather is cold or cooler in California and newgate Remember laurel river won by 20 and horse was not even with b.baffert anymore. S.l n s.b.up against it being closers all big races n preps and over seas won up close. 3 likely winners idiomatic since randomized not in cogburn and nakatomi. But I feel nakatomi is going to set track record and is my best bet and is also last race in pk6. Ticket will be up there cause I will be adding in yr pks also. F.m.sprint ways n means with other asmusson horse zeitio not society. Cutting down my ticket don't like no Applebee's horses on sat not Fri.like obrian better. So save money or out.100percent behind yr reason about Los Angeles but since u helped me so much don't want u out of pk6.so with yr same thoughts on him please watch reply of roushan park. Looked like making move on wet grass and pouring rain in horses face and horse who won came from dead last halfway down stretch. So alot didn't take to conditions. Also same owner different trainer as shahryar a established horse in in b.c.b4. Why send this one. I hope to hit pk6 with yr help. I hope one day I see u in person at track but don't worry I won't ask to sit at yr table.lol lol. I usually have my own.
2nd time don't c it 3rd time now shorter version. Classic only c derma sotogake ist n sierra leone 2nd as my bets. 3 logical bets idiomatic cogburn and nakatomi sets track record last pk6race. For reasons u like Los Angeles please chk replay of roushan park wet grass n pouring. Not big on Applebee's on sat like obrian better. Need u to hit pk6.
Still don't think he's a fighter he just won by a nose Torpedo Anna should of won little longer of race she wins easily He was tired at the finish line Jon don't leave Sierra Leone out he is really due N pace is there I'm on him but I'll be playing a few City of Troy is dangerous I always liked Arthurs Ride also I'll tell if Tapit trice runs like he did last races he's definitely a upset horse.
Yes @@CarlCarlson-k5pyes been looking at each race only thing we don't know whose entering each race yet plus I wanna see post positions The live drawing show is going to be on National TV I heard it's on October 23 a Wednesday 1200pm Eastern time. On FanDuel n TH-cam channel Gotta watch that Hey Carl did you get my message about the day I had Wednesday Made a killing Aqueduct n Keenland Hit a few exactas 2 straight n box. I had 6 winners n the big one Straight n box trifecta paid over 660 bucks that was at Aqueduct By the way I got a follower like you it's not Easy goer. His name is Steven kr. He's just like Easy goer telling me Sierra Leone has no chance n Fierceness is the one to beat he says Tapit trice has no chance n Arthur's ride no chance all the horses I like I just told him we'll if you think that Then Fierceness has no chance He hasn't answered What is it with these no it all guys they should be rich right I can't believe now I got a Fierceness fan insulting my picks I don't care it's my opinion n my money not them I haven't made any picks yet just thinking that's all n making notes on different horses Alot of horses we don't know what race Ther entering so you can't even really do anything yet like Next Cogburn National treasure Arthur's ride.Muth Alot of Baffert horses don't know what race If you hear anything lmk The trainer for Next said it's between the Classic or the Mile n half turf for him He's really a long distance dirt horse so not sure It would be cool if he's in the classic He's a one of a kind Colt never seen a horse like him.I didn't like much today you play anything today.Ill talk to you later over the weekend Take care Pal
@@stephenmolaro2031 He bounces alright Bounces off the gate hits his head n knocks him out That's what I'm hoping for He's Big Overated inconsistent Jekyll and Hyde horse joke He's not hitting the board Save your money people.Ill predict he comes in 7th place or worse . He finally won 2 in a row just barely won by a nose and a head What's there to be excited about Could of easily lost them both Never win 3 in a row.To many better horses in their then him He's not a top 5 horse These Handicappers that no nothing just wanna push him to the top Not me he's a bust . big-time.
Jon I still don't like Fierceness never will Not impressed with the 2 in a row just barely won them Has way to Many bad races He's not consistent n doesn't like to get bumped or touched anything he's done with.Im sticking with Sierra Leone he's due If Next runs he's huge But Sierra Leone has hit the board every time
No Sierra Leone won't disappoint he's gonna win He's due N Overated inconsistent Jekyll and Hyde horse Fierceness Wiil not hit the board Forever young might hit the board City of Troy will be there and if Next enters he's definitely hitting the board maybe winning I would put Tapit trice n Arthur's ride ahead of Fierceness he's a average horse at best to many bad races no excuses for them N he just barely won the 2 in a row by nose and head Torpedo Anna should of won little longer of a race she wins easily He was so tired at the finish line He isnt a fighter once he gets bumped or touched anything he's done with Save your money people I can't bet or root for a horse like him Sierra Leone will surprise everyone This is his race big time pace Ahead of him n we close just in time n win I think Chad Brown will have him ready to go.N There will be good odds on him .He's the one underdog that on paper is the most consistent horse He's hit the board every race He easily could be undefeated lost by a nose Derby and head Travers.He spots every horse like 7 or more lengths because of his closing style And he still almost wins every time I have e 2 So far Sierra Leone and City of Troy waiting to see who else enters I'm choosing 4 horses so I can play trifectas n Superfectas
@@frankdeangelo6327 Sierra Leone hasn't won a race since the Spring. It's obvious he's destined to be the "best man" but never the "groom". If Fierceness runs a clean race, he'll be tough to beat. Next is NOT going to run in the BC Classic. Arthur's Ride will be a non-factor and Tapit Trice will also disappoint. The BC Classic is really wide open this year. Should be an interesting race.
@@Steven-r2w9bI disagree Fierceness won't be a factor at all Won't even Hit the board He's so overrated inconsistent Sierra Leone will be there at the end he always is can't say that about Fierceness to many bad races 7th place 8th place 15th place 9th place No answer for that n finally won 2 in a row just barely Torpedo Anna should of won little longer of a race she wins easily He won by a nose and a head I'm not impressed one bit He's a throw out Tapit trice he will probably hit the board And Arthur's ride will finish ahead of Mr Overated needs tons of rest skips the big races Fraud horse Fierceness I wouldn't bet or root for that king of horse He will finish 7th or worse guarantee Sierra Leone will win this race shock all you non believers He's dam good He spots every horse like 7 or more lengths because of his closing style and still almost wins every time Chad Brown has him ready He will either win or place definitely Pace is his advantage so is distance Fierceness won't have nothing be tired n if the Whimp horse gets bumped or touched he's finished done with Can't take any adversity like I said he is a definitely a throw out City of Troy will be there also close could win If Next should enter he will be my pick with Sierra Leone they haven't decided yet He might enter or turf mile n half will see But that's my take
@@frankdeangelo6327 We all keep hearing the same thing about Sierra Leone. "He's going to win!" "He's due!" "He's a great horse!" Sierra Leone is the DEFINITION of "shoulda-woulda-coulda". He hasn't won a race since April. If not for the fact that he's a very high-priced horse who has NOT met his lofty expectations, he would not even be mentioned right now.
Jon i think my shorter version went through Please check. U mentioned los angeles 4 yr reasons please chk replay on rousham park wet grass pouring also same connection as sharayar.
Hey Carl how you doing Buddy Did you get my comments how great I did on Saturday and Sunday especially Sunday Aqueduct n Keenland I hit straight n box trifecta at Aqueduct paid over 660 bks I hit like 7 win bets n 4 straight n box exactas made over 1600 bks after bet money was deducted I think you have given me Luck ever since I started talking to you My luck has really changed Alot I believe that Plus the winners that you gave me Stay in touch Pal I been listening to Jon his review on all the Breeders Cup races his early thoughts Did you listen it was posted today Check it out if you didn't hear it.k I'll talk to you soon Take care
Jon curios if u like anything at aqueduct 2day thrusday. Played small pk6 5 w 1 w 1 2 9 10 w 5 6 8 10 w 1 2 w 10. Only like doubles in 4th 1 w 2 9 and exaxta race seven 2 w 1.@PastTheWireTV
@@CarlCarlson-k5pHey Carl Both Geo and Jon are picking my Horse in the Classic Sierra Leone did you watch it Ther funny they said If there was a gun to their head today who would they pick both of them said Sierra Leone Geo I was surprised He s not big on Fierceness this race he didn't explain anything it's to early but as of today Sierra Leone I even think all 3 Big Race Jim took Sierra Leone also the 3 of them Kind of unusual Well will see I'm not changing my mind I gotta bet him on top like Geo and Jon said n I've been saying it all along he's never ran a bad race he's always there at the finish line He's the kind of horse I would want to bet knowing he's gonna bring it Close hard pace will be fast I think So pace horses will tire n Sierra Leone will go right by them hopefully n pay good price .
@frankdeangelo6327 yes I got it Yes they picked yr pick but they also picked their horse. In a quick recap .u need to lisen to their whole detail of possible other horses . I got to say I was waiting more to hear frm geo. And he suprized me. And I'm glad. S.l for now is my second pick as proper bet. We went over what I mean by proper bet. And I believe u know who I like but now have to wait until 1st n 2nd preference get decided. Love gets way of helping us with his 1st to last picks. 4 triple n super. No derespect to geo. We need him But to me in the long run Jon's way is the way.
The perfect companion piece to highlighting through my Breeders' Cup possibles PPs. Jon do you have a go-to source for watching replays of international horses? I have some success on TH-cam but especially the Japanese stuff can be hard to find. With Subsanador bowing out I'm really keying in on four horses in my mind as serious Classic contenders: Arthur's Ride, Fierceness, Ushba Tesoro, and I think Bob could be flying under the radar with Newgate. I feel like a lot of Baffert's horses haven't been firing off long layoffs, but he looked to take a big step forward in the Cali Crown tangling with two very fast horses. I'll see your very interesting call on Messier and raise you Post Time. He put in some serious fast races earlier in the year, ran better than expected stretching out in the Met Mile and Whitney, and it looks like they're trying to teach him to rate a bit to handle that two-turn route.
Take Overated inconsistent Jekyll and Hyde horse Fierceness out he's going to screw you he won't hit the board trust me he's nothing big deal he finally won 2 in a row just barely By a nose and a head Torpedo Anna should of won little longer of a race she wins easily He was so tired at the finish line once he gets bumped or touched he's done finished Don't like him one bit Not a fighter at all No adversity he cant handle Sierra Leone make sure you got him hitting the board I think hes winning this race hes over due hes Hit the board every race evrn with some bad trips now hes a fighter tufff horse Always spots every horse like 7 or more lengths because of his closing style and he still almost wins every time he easily could be undefeated lost by a nose Derby and head Travers Fierceness has way too many bad races no excuses 7th place 8th place 15th place 9th place terrific races Don't listen to all these handicappers Ther just bandwagon fanss not me I dislike the horse wouldn't bet one penny on him Too many other good better horses Don't say I didn't warn you about him he's not capable of winning 3 in a row Especially a big field like the classic I predict he will come in 10th place or worse like the Derby
@@frankdeangelo6327 I respect your take, Frank even if I don't necessarily agree with it. I have a lot of respect for Sierra Leone, if he goes on at 4 I think he may very well turn into a better horse than Fierceness, but for me, the BCC is a different beast. I'm not overly willing to take a short-ish price on a horse who needs to make a massive jump from a ThoroGraph figure POV to win the BCC. The AVG winning figure of the past 25 Classics is a TG 2.5-, those that run a new top effort in the BCC make on average about a 2 point jump. Sierra Leone has consistently thrown a TG 1 in all of his best races against 3YOs. Maybe the Classic is the race where he finally moves forward, but first time out against older horses at a track that can be difficult for closers with the short stretch, I think he's up against it in this one and I think the public is a little overly bullish on every 3YO *not* named Fierceness as they're all in the same boat needing a 3-4 pt forward move. Your criticisms re. Fierceness are pretty well pointed, I don't think on the day he'll end up as my top choice, but he *does* come in fast enough on that 2.5- TG speed par, he gets that 5 lb weight allowance as a 3YO and while neither Pletcher nor Brown have had a ton of success shipping to California Breeders' Cups, Fierceness ran through that last year. If he's the favorite, I do think it's pretty legitimate.
Fierceness is the better horse, the trainer if Thorpedo Anna said -- judging by the fact that Fierceness ran a longer distance in the Travers. Kenny was discussing the use of those gadgets that you put on a saddle to measure distance a horse covers. So I have to watch it again: Did Fierceness just have another bad trip? GeoSette picked Fierceness for the Travers, despite everybody putting Fierceness down. The horse had bad trips, Sette said. Exacta: COT, Fierceness?
@@gretafields4706 yes she did n to say she almost won what's that tell you about her n Fierceness he's not the horse that people think he is Overated inconsistent Longer race he loses She had a bad trip actually His trip was perfect He tired at the finish line Even My horse closed on him Sierra Leone You wanna really get sick watch All the bad races Fierceness had Ther awful terrible It's like Jekyll and Hyde It took him so long to finally win 2 in a row just barely By a nose and a head And yet all these so called handicappers wanna put him on top of the list I can't understand that one bit when I can name at least 5 or more horses better than him More consistent No bad races They just wanna push him to the top well hate to break Ther heart it ain't going to happen He's not winning the classic He's not even going to hit the board My opinion I think he got lucky winning the 2 in a row City of Troy SIERRA LEONE Torpedo Anna Dornach Next Forever young that's 6 right there way more consistent than him I stop there the number is even higher His true colors will show in the classic I'm willing to bet anyone.Im sick of hearing his name I just don't like the horse at all Nothing to like about how can anyone in there right mind bet or root for him Hes so up and down up n down up n down Dont know whats next up or the down .I try to tell people dont fall for his fraud style Save your money people Bet anyone but him Dont listen to all of these bandwagon people who wanna root for a Fraud horse how can they even waste their breathe n say hes a top horse Give me a break A top horse wouldn't Skip the bigg races all of them Derby Preakness Belmont Stakes Every single one he ducked Why because his connections knew he wouldn't win so they made excuses up he needs more test Ive never heard of that Why does he need more beauty rest then other horses do Another poor excuse He's a average horse at best Not a fighter Once he gets bumped or touched he's finished done with He can't take any adversity whatsoever Just watch all his races I said enough Will see but I'll tell you this he's not even on my mind as a choice I hope he comes in Dead last That would make my Day Ill celebrate Ive never ever dislike a horse like him Only other one I to didn't like n it happene to be same Owner n trainer Forte hes another Fraud Overated horse terrible n what did the media say n do try making him something hes not
Nice work as always, may not always agree with all of your picks but love your shows and teachings!
Thanks Jon for your time and wisdom !
Jon, glad to see you safe. I live on the GulfCoast and understand these storms. Great show as usual. I’m agnostic on City Of Troy. Reminds me of the Mendelssohn hype in the KD. Don’t sleep on Senor Buscador and Sierra Leone.
@@gunrunner-fq5bd hope all was well for you
Gotta leave blinkers on Sierra Leone help him to focus n not Drift Blinkers a must
Always love your analysis Jon, thanks for putting in the time to help us out.
grazie Joe
V@@PastTheWireTVHey Jon I took Georgia Bulldogs plus 4.5 vs Texas I got a feeling ther gonna knock them off Will see .I like a few NFL games tomorrow I like Green Bay minus 2 vs Texans I like Detroit lions plus 2 vs Vikings I like 49ers minus 2 vs Chiefs N Jets minus 2 vs Pittsburgh Colts plus 3 vs Miami I usually don't like that many But my 2 best games are Jets minus 2 vs Pittsburgh n 49ers minus 2 vs KC.
Georgia leading Tx 10 to 0. Getting 4.5. Early in 2nd quarter.
@@PastTheWireTVHey Jon are you doing a Thorograph patterns show on The Classic I hope so or any other Breeders Cup races
Jon, thanks for the show. Appreciate hearing your thought process and early prep process. Nothing but the best 👊🏼
Grazie
Another great show Jon. I like City of Troy and First Piece. Early thoughts
I read sizse the gray is going in the mile i read
Don't forget C.O.T. got some training in The Bedford rating behind The Headless Horseman. 😂😂
JAPANESE has an American Pharaoh, Paris Bikini by Bernadini checkout his family tree dam side WOW.
City of Troy isnt a WIMP says Aiden O'Brien LOL
Go John G0
Just lisen to yr whole show. Very nice
Have alot to say because yr the best. But it would be long. Don't know if u had time. But there was alot u said that I'm on the same page and some stuff u might be on same page if I comment. No pity needed. Thks 4 all u do.
Grazie Carl lots more to come
Jon dont c my long comment about b.c
Sat. Did it come through cant rewrite that all over again.@@PastTheWireTV
I think Chancer McPatrick already looks mature, like a Derby horse. But I like East Avenue and Citizen Bull. Citizen Bull's jockey sounds like he really likes that horse -- he said that horse was "loaded" after the half mile (in the 1 1\16th race that he just won). Bull stood energized, tall and solid muscle, in the winner's circle, so I just love his looks. He has that long neck and huge shoulder that is still in balance with a big rump. I love his conformation, so I am prejudiced in his favor, despite my brain saying Chancer and East Avenue are both slightly faster. I tried all week to study them. I just can't decide yet, so I will be looking hard for their workout times. I am over Ferocious -- moved him to "mid-pack" with others.
East Avenue is a freak! I have a hard time betting against, single and move on
Jon I like Sweet Azteca. In the mile have to stick to her
I gotta repeat this: Aiden O'Brien just gave an interview saying Troy is gonna "rock the Breeder'Cup!" The last horse I saw rock his stride was Flightline!!! Go watch it. There's a video of Flightline in his 4th race where you get a perfect look at his stride: His back hooves meet the spot where the front hooves hit the ground in the center of his barrell. (That is what Secretariat could do, because Secretariat could collect himself like a dressage horse, when he wanted do. It takes a horse with tremendous fitness, strength and balance to do collected dressage -- to step with back hooves into his front footsteps --and let alone, rock a gallop!!!! Secretarist, Flightline could do that. Are we going to see City of Troy do that?! I hope so. I THINK DO, because Aiden O'Brien is grinning like a possum. That man Never Smiles. And you, Jon, said once, all trainers believe in their own horses, so you can't always listen to them. But this time, i have to listen... He said that Ryan, the jockey, is going to turn Troy loose. He has problems stopping the horse, you know? It will be fun!!!
Aiden says COT best quality is that "CITY OF TROY IS NOT A WIMP" 😂😮
😄😄😄
We hear the same thing every year: Some hotshot euro-horse who has never raced on dirt and never raced in the USA, is going to come over here and dominate the Yankee horses in the B.C. Classic. It's only happened about three times in 40 B.C. Classic races. Blah, blah, blah!
Aidan 0 Brien did not say COT is " Going to rock the breeders cup". He said in reply to a question about tactics in the race. He said " We' re going to let him rock" meaning he's going to let the horse loose from the gate. Just hate it when mis quote what was said. Get it right! O Brien is a fairly humble down to earth guy. Your misquote suggests arrogance and he's anything but that.
@@TheProfessorOfLife Aidan 0 Brien had 3 winners last year. Giants Causeway ( never raced on dirt) had the greatest classic winner in 50 yrs beat but for jockey dropping the damn reins 200 yards from line.
💪💪
Wow Dylan Davis tearing it up today at Aqueduct 4 winners out of 6 races there few races left I think he's leading the meet He's such an improved Jockey way more consistent.
Chance Mcpatrick is Hampered by Delmar's Speed Biased 2YO stretching out Pastime Record's if you're not 1-2-3 turning for home it's really hard for a Closer which makes me like Tip Top Thomas at a Huge Price
Well, I think I heard J. Stettin say that Chancer McPatrick doesn't have to be a closer, but can run from other positions (I hope I am not misquoting him, but he knows a lot about this colt. I am not good at comparing track bias, speeds etc. But I did try to look at his times. He ran a mile in 136.51. Jonathan's Way ran a mile in the Iroquois in 136.08. Chancer beat Tip Top and Moplex well.
@@gretafields4706 One of the things I've learned is that final times don't mean much because there are too many factors involved. Setting aside the fact that they usually only run as fast as they need to, different tracks have different depths of cushion. The deeper the cushion, the slower the times.
I know. I really like to know their last furlong at least. I think Jon just said in this video, he looks at start and finish furlongs. He also uses Thoro-Graph numbers, which do analyze extra factors like track, weather...Everything.
@@gretafields4706 I'm not disagreeing with you. I was just opining that final times don't tell us much. One of the reasons I love horse racing and handicapping is the unpredictability of each race. Lots and lots of variables, for sure! Jon, Geo, and Jim are the best handicappers I've ever seen, bar none.
City of Troys form is rock solid, beat Bluestocking in the Juddmonte by over 8 lengths who has since won the Arc. If Calandagan wins the Champion stakes on Saturday then that'll strengten the form even more.
Jon where is Next going to be What race You think he will be in the classic
not sure
Next just ran a 5 furlong workout at 1.00 and cents at Florence, Ky. track!The video said Next may run in either BC Turf or BC Classic. They were undecided still. He has speed apparently, and stamina to boot.
The ONLY race that makes sense for Next is the G2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance race on the Breeder's Cup weekend undercard. He won that race in 2022, it's 13 furlongs, and it's on dirt. It makes no sense to switch Next over to the 12-furlong Breeder's Cup Turf, and it makes even less sense to run him in the 10-furlong BC Classic. He will get PUMMELED in the BC Classic and it's just not fair to Next to put him in a race against the top horses in the world that is less than 12 furlongs.
@@gretafields4706I don't agree with that guy Steven he thinks Next would get crushed in the Classic I disagree with him He might crush the entire field he's capable of that So what it's a shorter race
He just ran a 5 f. workout that looked good to me. I wish the handicappers would discuss Next. Have other marathoners dropped down in distance to win the BC?
Jon will there be anymore discounted spots at the table? I thought the pre sale ran through Columbus Day I went to sign up yesterday
sorry that ended and I can't control the way it is set up. I can try and make it more than worth it and plan to....
Thx Jon! always value your eye! what brand shades are those? how do you get the advanced pps?
Those are Persol's and the advance PP's are available through DRF.com, thanks Ryan
I have watched enough of your shows to know that YOU KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
You keep saying "Get a seat for the seminar." Well, I guess I am an idiot, because I haven't found any way to sign up. I do not have a smart phone, only a PC.
Thanks
piece of cake and thank you pastthewire.com/the-past-the-wire-2024-breeders-cup-seminar-simply-the-best/
Chaner McPatrick looksike Sierra Leone part two
I don't agree
Me either @@PastTheWireTV
@@PastTheWireTV do you think he will be better than SL
@@Alex-zj4vj I tend to think so but it is very early in his career.
That's not a knock on SL..just the styles look like out of the clouds....should be interesting..hopefully heChancer has a healthy future..Thanks again for the presentation JS
Bradsell looks great against COGBURN 😂
Forever young won his prep recently and looked solid . If City of Troy adapts to dirt he wins strictly on ratings he does seem to have this grabbing stride style suited to dirt ? The other Coolmore runner sierra leone could fill the final place spot
Jon. I think we need to make some Tshirts with. Knowledge is not free. You have to pay attention. Let me know
I agree. I have learned So Much here. He is an encyclopedia on racing.
Giants Causeway had the great Tiznow beat but for jockey dropping the reins few hundred yards from the line. Aidan 0 Brien has said COT may be best hes trained.
City of Troy will not lack for stamina. He has Justify and Galileo mare in breeding. He's probably been running on surfaces that have not suited him all year and still winning everything in Europe. However it will be horses first time on dirt. Even though Justify was great champion on dirt. His one bad race in the guineas, he got knocked around in stalls and Ryan Moore basically pulled him up. Ignore it. City of Troy is far away best horse in Europe. If ge takes to dirt he will win imo.
I agree. I read all about the Guineas race and just disregard it.
Please only talking to jon. Good to hear yr voice.
Grazie
Hey Carl where you been Are you k Did you get my message about me killing it 2 weeks ago Made alot I hit a straight n box Exacta pd over 660 bks for just a 2 dollar bet I had 5 on it I had 7 win bets n 2 exactas anyway I got a guy like the guy that talks to you Easy goer. This guys name is Steven qr. Do you know him he's like Telling me Sierra Leone has no chance Hey did you read today's Geo Early pick in the Classic Im shocked because he's a huge Fierceness guy He's picking my horse Sierra Leone I'm happy about that He gave a few reasons why He said putting a gun to my head this is my pick right now without any post positions yet my pick can change he said Did you see it if not check it out hope you're doing good Pal stay in touch were getting close .
How do you enroll in the seminar?
all the info is right here:
pastthewire.com/the-past-the-wire-2024-breeders-cup-seminar-simply-the-best/
Bend over...
Jon jon did my long comment about many horses on b.c.sat. go through cause i dont c it and cant rewrite that all over again.
I saw the other comment but not that one.....eeeek sorry.
I will try again so please let me know if u get it. Give me a minute
I only send again cause u r worth it.@PastTheWireTV
@@PastTheWireTVoh god here I go. In the classic I only two logical and correct bets to make. Don't want to sound like a no it all. That's derma sotogake to win or accross board and sierra leone place. May be in 3rd n 4th spots city of troy senor buscator if weather is cold or cooler in California and newgate
Remember laurel river won by 20 and horse was not even with b.baffert anymore. S.l n s.b.up against it being closers all big races n preps and over seas won up close. 3 likely winners idiomatic since randomized not in cogburn and nakatomi. But I feel nakatomi is going to set track record and is my best bet and is also last race in pk6. Ticket will be up there cause I will be adding in yr pks also. F.m.sprint ways n means with other asmusson horse zeitio not society. Cutting down my ticket don't like no Applebee's horses on sat not Fri.like obrian better. So save money or out.100percent behind yr reason about Los Angeles but since u helped me so much don't want u out of pk6.so with yr same thoughts on him please watch reply of roushan park. Looked like making move on wet grass and pouring rain in horses face and horse who won came from dead last halfway down stretch. So alot didn't take to conditions. Also same owner different trainer as shahryar a established horse in in b.c.b4. Why send this one. I hope to hit pk6 with yr help. I hope one day I see u in person at track but don't worry I won't ask to sit at yr table.lol lol. I usually have my own.
@@PastTheWireTVget it.
2nd time don't c it 3rd time now shorter version. Classic only c derma sotogake ist n sierra leone 2nd as my bets. 3 logical bets idiomatic cogburn and nakatomi sets track record last pk6race. For reasons u like Los Angeles please chk replay of roushan park wet grass n pouring. Not big on Applebee's on sat like obrian better. Need u to hit pk6.
Chance mcpatrick remends me to sierra lion same trainer !!!!!!
Not me
We goin to California speed speed speed
Maybe Chad brown will listen take the blinkers off on Sierra Leone
If John or Sue Magnier are at Del mar on the Saturday, city of Troy wins
Still don't think he's a fighter he just won by a nose Torpedo Anna should of won little longer of race she wins easily He was tired at the finish line Jon don't leave Sierra Leone out he is really due N pace is there I'm on him but I'll be playing a few City of Troy is dangerous I always liked Arthurs Ride also I'll tell if Tapit trice runs like he did last races he's definitely a upset horse.
U getting ready 4 b.cup.
Getting ready 4 b.c.
Yes @@CarlCarlson-k5pyes been looking at each race only thing we don't know whose entering each race yet plus I wanna see post positions The live drawing show is going to be on National TV I heard it's on October 23 a Wednesday 1200pm Eastern time. On FanDuel n TH-cam channel Gotta watch that Hey Carl did you get my message about the day I had Wednesday Made a killing Aqueduct n Keenland Hit a few exactas 2 straight n box. I had 6 winners n the big one Straight n box trifecta paid over 660 bucks that was at Aqueduct By the way I got a follower like you it's not Easy goer. His name is Steven kr. He's just like Easy goer telling me Sierra Leone has no chance n Fierceness is the one to beat he says Tapit trice has no chance n Arthur's ride no chance all the horses I like I just told him we'll if you think that Then Fierceness has no chance He hasn't answered What is it with these no it all guys they should be rich right I can't believe now I got a Fierceness fan insulting my picks I don't care it's my opinion n my money not them I haven't made any picks yet just thinking that's all n making notes on different horses Alot of horses we don't know what race Ther entering so you can't even really do anything yet like Next Cogburn National treasure Arthur's ride.Muth Alot of Baffert horses don't know what race If you hear anything lmk The trainer for Next said it's between the Classic or the Mile n half turf for him He's really a long distance dirt horse so not sure It would be cool if he's in the classic He's a one of a kind Colt never seen a horse like him.I didn't like much today you play anything today.Ill talk to you later over the weekend Take care Pal
Fierceness bounces!
@@stephenmolaro2031 He bounces alright Bounces off the gate hits his head n knocks him out That's what I'm hoping for He's Big Overated inconsistent Jekyll and Hyde horse joke He's not hitting the board Save your money people.Ill predict he comes in 7th place or worse . He finally won 2 in a row just barely won by a nose and a head What's there to be excited about Could of easily lost them both Never win 3 in a row.To many better horses in their then him He's not a top 5 horse These Handicappers that no nothing just wanna push him to the top Not me he's a bust . big-time.
Anshoda looks awful SALTY in BCJF watch her Replays WOW
Sorry the likes of Dornoch and Thorpedo Anna are absent from the Breeders Cup Classic for City of Troy would have trounce them also end of story
Jon I still don't like Fierceness never will Not impressed with the 2 in a row just barely won them Has way to Many bad races He's not consistent n doesn't like to get bumped or touched anything he's done with.Im sticking with Sierra Leone he's due If Next runs he's huge But Sierra Leone has hit the board every time
No argument from me
Totally Agree Ship ins European Japanese look really salty
Forever Young is my pick. Fierceness place. City of Troy show. As usual, Sierra Leone will disappoint.
No Sierra Leone won't disappoint he's gonna win He's due N Overated inconsistent Jekyll and Hyde horse Fierceness Wiil not hit the board Forever young might hit the board City of Troy will be there and if Next enters he's definitely hitting the board maybe winning I would put Tapit trice n Arthur's ride ahead of Fierceness he's a average horse at best to many bad races no excuses for them N he just barely won the 2 in a row by nose and head Torpedo Anna should of won little longer of a race she wins easily He was so tired at the finish line He isnt a fighter once he gets bumped or touched anything he's done with Save your money people I can't bet or root for a horse like him Sierra Leone will surprise everyone This is his race big time pace Ahead of him n we close just in time n win I think Chad Brown will have him ready to go.N There will be good odds on him .He's the one underdog that on paper is the most consistent horse He's hit the board every race He easily could be undefeated lost by a nose Derby and head Travers.He spots every horse like 7 or more lengths because of his closing style And he still almost wins every time I have e
2 So far Sierra Leone and City of Troy waiting to see who else enters I'm choosing 4 horses so I can play trifectas n Superfectas
@@frankdeangelo6327 Sierra Leone hasn't won a race since the Spring. It's obvious he's destined to be the "best man" but never the "groom". If Fierceness runs a clean race, he'll be tough to beat. Next is NOT going to run in the BC Classic. Arthur's Ride will be a non-factor and Tapit Trice will also disappoint. The BC Classic is really wide open this year. Should be an interesting race.
I@@Steven-r2w9b
@@Steven-r2w9bI disagree Fierceness won't be a factor at all Won't even Hit the board He's so overrated inconsistent Sierra Leone will be there at the end he always is can't say that about Fierceness to many bad races 7th place 8th place 15th place 9th place No answer for that n finally won 2 in a row just barely Torpedo Anna should of won little longer of a race she wins easily He won by a nose and a head I'm not impressed one bit He's a throw out Tapit trice he will probably hit the board And Arthur's ride will finish ahead of Mr Overated needs tons of rest skips the big races Fraud horse Fierceness I wouldn't bet or root for that king of horse He will finish 7th or worse guarantee Sierra Leone will win this race shock all you non believers He's dam good He spots every horse like 7 or more lengths because of his closing style and still almost wins every time Chad Brown has him ready He will either win or place definitely Pace is his advantage so is distance Fierceness won't have nothing be tired n if the Whimp horse gets bumped or touched he's finished done with Can't take any adversity like I said he is a definitely a throw out City of Troy will be there also close could win If Next should enter he will be my pick with Sierra Leone they haven't decided yet He might enter or turf mile n half will see But that's my take
@@frankdeangelo6327 We all keep hearing the same thing about Sierra Leone. "He's going to win!" "He's due!" "He's a great horse!" Sierra Leone is the DEFINITION of "shoulda-woulda-coulda". He hasn't won a race since April. If not for the fact that he's a very high-priced horse who has NOT met his lofty expectations, he would not even be mentioned right now.
Jon i think my shorter version went through
Please check. U mentioned los angeles 4 yr reasons please chk replay on rousham park wet grass pouring also same connection as sharayar.
will do
Hey Carl how you doing Buddy Did you get my comments how great I did on Saturday and Sunday especially Sunday Aqueduct n Keenland I hit straight n box trifecta at Aqueduct paid over 660 bks I hit like 7 win bets n 4 straight n box exactas made over 1600 bks after bet money was deducted I think you have given me Luck ever since I started talking to you My luck has really changed Alot I believe that Plus the winners that you gave me Stay in touch Pal I been listening to Jon his review on all the Breeders Cup races his early thoughts Did you listen it was posted today Check it out if you didn't hear it.k I'll talk to you soon Take care
Jon curios if u like anything at aqueduct 2day thrusday. Played small pk6 5 w 1 w 1 2 9 10 w 5 6 8 10 w 1 2 w 10. Only like doubles in 4th 1 w 2 9 and exaxta race seven 2 w 1.@PastTheWireTV
@@CarlCarlson-k5pHey Carl Both Geo and Jon are picking my Horse in the Classic Sierra Leone did you watch it Ther funny they said If there was a gun to their head today who would they pick both of them said Sierra Leone Geo I was surprised He s not big on Fierceness this race he didn't explain anything it's to early but as of today Sierra Leone I even think all 3 Big Race Jim took Sierra Leone also the 3 of them Kind of unusual Well will see I'm not changing my mind I gotta bet him on top like Geo and Jon said n I've been saying it all along he's never ran a bad race he's always there at the finish line He's the kind of horse I would want to bet knowing he's gonna bring it Close hard pace will be fast I think So pace horses will tire n Sierra Leone will go right by them hopefully n pay good price .
@frankdeangelo6327 yes I got it
Yes they picked yr pick but they also picked their horse. In a quick recap .u need to lisen to their whole detail of possible other horses . I got to say I was waiting more to hear frm geo. And he suprized me. And I'm glad. S.l for now is my second pick as proper bet. We went over what I mean by proper bet. And I believe u know who I like but now have to wait until 1st n 2nd preference get decided. Love gets way of helping us with his 1st to last picks. 4 triple n super. No derespect to geo. We need him
But to me in the long run Jon's way is the way.
Opera singer win the fillies and mares
If Fierceness runs his best, he will win
The perfect companion piece to highlighting through my Breeders' Cup possibles PPs. Jon do you have a go-to source for watching replays of international horses? I have some success on TH-cam but especially the Japanese stuff can be hard to find.
With Subsanador bowing out I'm really keying in on four horses in my mind as serious Classic contenders: Arthur's Ride, Fierceness, Ushba Tesoro, and I think Bob could be flying under the radar with Newgate. I feel like a lot of Baffert's horses haven't been firing off long layoffs, but he looked to take a big step forward in the Cali Crown tangling with two very fast horses. I'll see your very interesting call on Messier and raise you Post Time. He put in some serious fast races earlier in the year, ran better than expected stretching out in the Met Mile and Whitney, and it looks like they're trying to teach him to rate a bit to handle that two-turn route.
Take Overated inconsistent Jekyll and Hyde horse Fierceness out he's going to screw you he won't hit the board trust me he's nothing big deal he finally won 2 in a row just barely By a nose and a head Torpedo Anna should of won little longer of a race she wins easily He was so tired at the finish line once he gets bumped or touched he's done finished Don't like him one bit Not a fighter at all No adversity he cant handle Sierra Leone make sure you got him hitting the board I think hes winning this race hes over due hes Hit the board every race evrn with some bad trips now hes a fighter tufff horse Always spots every horse like 7 or more lengths because of his closing style and he still almost wins every time he easily could be undefeated lost by a nose Derby and head Travers Fierceness has way too many bad races no excuses 7th place 8th place 15th place 9th place terrific races Don't listen to all these handicappers Ther just bandwagon fanss not me I dislike the horse wouldn't bet one penny on him Too many other good better horses Don't say I didn't warn you about him he's not capable of winning 3 in a row Especially a big field like the classic I predict he will come in 10th place or worse like the Derby
@@frankdeangelo6327 I respect your take, Frank even if I don't necessarily agree with it. I have a lot of respect for Sierra Leone, if he goes on at 4 I think he may very well turn into a better horse than Fierceness, but for me, the BCC is a different beast. I'm not overly willing to take a short-ish price on a horse who needs to make a massive jump from a ThoroGraph figure POV to win the BCC. The AVG winning figure of the past 25 Classics is a TG 2.5-, those that run a new top effort in the BCC make on average about a 2 point jump. Sierra Leone has consistently thrown a TG 1 in all of his best races against 3YOs. Maybe the Classic is the race where he finally moves forward, but first time out against older horses at a track that can be difficult for closers with the short stretch, I think he's up against it in this one and I think the public is a little overly bullish on every 3YO *not* named Fierceness as they're all in the same boat needing a 3-4 pt forward move. Your criticisms re. Fierceness are pretty well pointed, I don't think on the day he'll end up as my top choice, but he *does* come in fast enough on that 2.5- TG speed par, he gets that 5 lb weight allowance as a 3YO and while neither Pletcher nor Brown have had a ton of success shipping to California Breeders' Cups, Fierceness ran through that last year. If he's the favorite, I do think it's pretty legitimate.
Fierceness is the better horse, the trainer if Thorpedo Anna said -- judging by the fact that Fierceness ran a longer distance in the Travers. Kenny was discussing the use of those gadgets that you put on a saddle to measure distance a horse covers. So I have to watch it again: Did Fierceness just have another bad trip? GeoSette picked Fierceness for the Travers, despite everybody putting Fierceness down. The horse had bad trips, Sette said. Exacta: COT, Fierceness?
Well! I watched the Travers again and it looks to me like Thorpedo Anna had a worse trip than Fierceness. She had to go around horses.
@@gretafields4706 yes she did n to say she almost won what's that tell you about her n Fierceness he's not the horse that people think he is Overated inconsistent Longer race he loses She had a bad trip actually His trip was perfect He tired at the finish line Even My horse closed on him Sierra Leone You wanna really get sick watch All the bad races Fierceness had Ther awful terrible It's like Jekyll and Hyde It took him so long to finally win 2 in a row just barely By a nose and a head And yet all these so called handicappers wanna put him on top of the list I can't understand that one bit when I can name at least 5 or more horses better than him More consistent No bad races They just wanna push him to the top well hate to break Ther heart it ain't going to happen He's not winning the classic He's not even going to hit the board My opinion I think he got lucky winning the 2 in a row City of Troy SIERRA LEONE Torpedo Anna Dornach Next Forever young that's 6 right there way more consistent than him I stop there the number is even higher His true colors will show in the classic I'm willing to bet anyone.Im sick of hearing his name I just don't like the horse at all Nothing to like about how can anyone in there right mind bet or root for him Hes so up and down up n down up n down Dont know whats next up or the down .I try to tell people dont fall for his fraud style Save your money people Bet anyone but him Dont listen to all of these bandwagon people who wanna root for a Fraud horse how can they even waste their breathe n say hes a top horse Give me a break A top horse wouldn't Skip the bigg races all of them Derby Preakness Belmont Stakes Every single one he ducked Why because his connections knew he wouldn't win so they made excuses up he needs more test Ive never heard of that Why does he need more beauty rest then other horses do Another poor excuse He's a average horse at best Not a fighter Once he gets bumped or touched he's finished done with He can't take any adversity whatsoever Just watch all his races I said enough Will see but I'll tell you this he's not even on my mind as a choice I hope he comes in Dead last That would make my Day Ill celebrate Ive never ever dislike a horse like him Only other one I to didn't like n it happene to be same Owner n trainer Forte hes another Fraud Overated horse terrible n what did the media say n do try making him something hes not