Ukraine Shoots Down a Russian Hypersonic Missile and Misconceptions About the Patriot Missile.
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 พ.ค. 2023
- The long for video about the Patriot is here:
• How the Patriot Missil...
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The PAC-3 Patriot uses a kinetic kill warhead, meaning that the warhead physically strikes the incoming TBM, these weapons are closing on each other at a combined speed of ~Mach 10. So there should me more deformation than a little hole.
The common arguments about the effectiveness of the Patriot are twofold.
The first is that the Patriot performed poorly during Operation Desert Storm. There is some truth to this, but it has more to do with the nature of first-generation Patriot missiles having proximity warheads than the effectiveness of the system. The Patriots were hitting, but they just weren't killing because at Mach 10, even explosions take time to form, and the incoming SCUD missile often passed the code of Patriot shrapnel by the time it fully expanded.
The second argument is that Patriots can't shoot down Hypersonic Missiles - but the problem with that line of thinking is that TMBs (Theater Ballistic Missiles) are already hypersonic - meaning that they travel over Mach 5. So killing Hypersonic Cruise missiles may not be that difficult for the Patriot, although it is made harder if the cruise missile his hypersonic and maneuvering.
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The long for video about the Patriot is here:
th-cam.com/video/RDJgQErMSdA/w-d-xo.html
Get a Live, Laugh, Launch Patriot shirt here:
www.bunkerbranding.com/products/tel-live-laugh-launch-t-shirt?variant=42959345483907
I don't believe that the images found in tweets like this are true:
twitter.com/parrot_soldier/status/1654416758600597509
The PAC-3 Patriot uses a kinetic kill warhead, meaning that the warhead physically strikes the incoming TBM, these weapons are closing on each other at a combined speed of ~Mach 10. So there should me more deformation than a little hole.
The common arguments about the effectiveness of the Patriot are twofold.
The first is that the Patriot performed poorly during Operation Desert Storm. There is some truth to this, but it has more to do with the nature of first-generation Patriot missiles having proximity warheads than the effectiveness of the system. The Patriots were hitting, but they just weren't killing because at Mach 10, even explosions take time to form, and the incoming SCUD missile often passed the code of Patriot shrapnel by the time it fully expanded.
The second argument is that Patriots can't shoot down Hypersonic Missiles - but the problem with that line of thinking is that TMBs (Theater Ballistic Missiles) are already hypersonic - meaning that they travel over Mach 5. So killing Hypersonic Cruise missiles may not be that difficult for the Patriot, although it is made harder if the cruise missile his hypersonic and maneuvering.
For uncensored video, check out my substack at:
ryanmcbeth.substack.com
Like my shirts? Get your own at:
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@RyanMcBeth that's incredible video of the Patriot. Amazing amount of time and hard work you put into this. Definitely wish I got into the service when I was young.
I am familiar with the phalanx system since bagram had them but ive always been curious about the patriot system. Thanks for the link.
Nonetheless... That russian junk is sitting on the ground with a hole in it. 😁
感谢哟！
You need to do a colab with habitual line crosser
I thought the main problem with the patriot in the gulf war was that they were being left turned on for too long and getting drift in some of the data due to accumulating floating point errors
i dont understand what your saying is there a way you can explain it simpler?
@@rogerarmy8659 The radar was detecting things that werent really there because of it running to long and compounding errors without correction. Like how a computer will eventually fail if not shut down because of the build up of errors
That was one of the issues. The best explanations of the Patriot in the '91 Iraq war and it's subsequent improvements are Ryan's, Habitual Linecrosser's and Sandboxx. All worth your time.
@@rogerarmy8659 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot#Failure_at_Dhahran
Pretty much came down to he type of clock it was using. Can’t be super precise with octal clocks, so the time would drift if you didn’t reset the system periodically
I love that patriot gets to do stuff after I get out 🤣. Former 14H here
You would love my shirt:
www.bunkerbranding.com/products/tel-live-laugh-launch-t-shirt?variant=42959345483907
@@RyanMcBethProgramming It’s missing. “If it flies, it dies.”
Yes you would love he's shirts 😇
Oh don't worry brother it ain't even us, its batteries donated to Ukraine operated by Ukrainians.
Current 14T
Current 14H here. We still do nothing. 1 unit got cabs for shooting shrapnel or a missile that had already been taken out. Would be like an infantry battalion getting cibs for shooting an abandoned Toyota
Kinzhals are only considered hypersonic because of the brave russians, constantly fighting for their motherland in the wikipedia talk section.
I find it comical how russians are constantly bragging about their new nuclear powered scramjet missle, their new 200 megaton Poseidon torpedo, their new T14 armata tank, they once bragged about having a nuclear powered bomber airplane. The only thing this has ever accomplished is to make the U.S. spend even more money on technology that we're better at making. If I really did have hypersonic super missiles that were supposed to be nye invincible, I wouldn't be hopping up and down screaming at the top of my lungs about it. I'd overestimate my adversaries capabilities, and keep my mouth shut.
Amazing comment
Dumbest comment here, why cant you be like everybody else just discussing how patriot works.
So tell me, how is the kinzhal nkt hypersonic ??? Speed isnt determent by bots on wikipedia.
@@kuunoooo7293 It's just an Iskander strapped to a plane. It's tech that has existed since the 60s.
@@colinhobbs7265 doesnt mean its bad
Love your stuff man and yes kind of that hole punched in it looks about right for PAC3
Basically when it comes to nation vs nation, never trust any side without serious evidence
We never know which side to believe. But we DO knows the War has been going on now for over a year and is showing no signs of slowing or stopping.
We also KNOW that Putin never expected this!
Sanjosemike (no longer in CA)
@@sanjosemike3137 "We also KNOW that Putin never expected this!"
How do you KNOW what Putin expected?
Do you have a crystal ball?
@@mikek.1761 I was waiting for your objection. Russia easily annexed Crimea in 2014. Putin underestimate the hatred that Ukrainians had against Russia due to Chernobyl.
Chernobyl had an enormous impact on Ukrainians. Putin just “assumed” they we’re basically Russians and would just collapse.
I was waiting for your objection. I had very good reasons for my assumption.
Cheers
Sanjosemike (no longer in CA)
@@sanjosemike3137 fair enough, although there's quite a bit of hate left over from that invasion of Crimea. Just as the Finns still have a few supertankers of hate over real estate losses from the Winter War.
Enough Ukrainian hatred to allow the Russians a fine camping trip for an extended period all around Pripyat. Taking quite a lot of contamination along with the retreating units after.
@@sanjosemike3137 "Putin underestimate", "Putin just 'assumed'"
Once again, how do you know what Putin thinks. Are you watching too much of western politicians and media where they do the same all the time?
You should learn more about history of Crimea to understand why it was easily annexed by Russia in 2014. There's nothing why russians should presume the same with the rest of Ukraine, especially western UA. You can also watch and/or read NBC report from Crimea from Feb. this year if you are lazy to research more deeply.
Statement "the hatred that Ukrainians had against Russia due to Chernobyl" also shows your lack of knowledge of history of Ukraine, if you think that mistake, although avoidable, is in par with deliberate starvation of the nation.
The other misconception is that the Kinzhal is actually a modern hypersonic weapon. It isn’t. As you said, all theater ballistic missiles already travel at hypersonic speeds. This has been true since the German V-2 in WWII, the very first theater ballistic missile. So when we talk about hypersonic weapons today, this isn’t what we mean. And the Kinzhal is nothing more than a theater ballistic missile strapped to a plane. It is just a slightly modified version of the Iskander TBM, which itself is essentially just a 3rd generation V-2. So the Kinzhal is a NOT a hypersonic missile in the modern use of that term, it’s just an air-launched theater ballistic missile, something that the US invented back in 1962 (the GAM-87 Skybolt) and then abandoned in favor of other systems.
This. While the russians are hypeing up their missile the western nations are calling hyper sonic missiles that can fly from 10 mach up to a 20 (which they Research on at least)
You know what's interesting, in Venezuela we use the Pechora and the S-300 for the Air defese (both Anti-Aircraft and Anti-Ballistic) the Russian dealer told us (well not me, to the Venezuela DoD) that both systems could take down F-22s and B-2s and every ballistic or tactical munitions the US have, but one thing that bothers us is the System was revamped with a Chinese targeting system, which is copy of the Patriot targeting system, which is think is not an authorized one and the only reason we realize this is because our old maintenace officer worked with Raytheon a while back
I'll take those fax over truth.😎❤🇺🇸
@@rincontibio7664 Chinese software in your missiles? Yeah no thanks, sounds like the highway to ransomware on a never before seen scale to me. Hopefully your government can sort that out quickly.
@@rincontibio7664 Theoretically an S-300 can shoot down anything. The issue isn’t the shootdown. The issue is targeting. It simply cannot target an F-22 in time to shoot it down. Its radar cross-section is too small. The F-22 would be on top of it before it even catches it. That means that a HARM missile would already have taken the S-300 put or that the F-22 would exit the SAM’s range faster than the S-300 could spool up to fire. The S-400 uses far better frequency ranges to acquire small targets at farther distances.
The thing about comparisons to Gulf War patriots is that the Patriot PAC-3 is essentially a completely different missile from the older patriots. So much so that you can fit 16 PAC-3s in the same launcher as 4 older patriot missiles. Patriot is an integrated air defense system, and the missile that system uses has been completely swapped out for a new one.
But do the Ukrainians have PAC-3?
Much like comparing an aim9x to a vietnam sidewinder.
@@antonnurwald5700 yes.
Since it is defensive in nature they got the best.
In exchange Raytheon gets field test data.
Same with NASAMS and IRIS-T SLM.
@@rohesilmnelohe nice to see that UA is test bed for weapon systems from both sides.
Somehow the ukrainian people (not politicians) can not recognise that.
It's not an IADS because it doesn't have a full complement of missile types. It only has medium-long. It also has one multifunction radar, with very low elevation.
Another misconception here to point out: The TBM doesn't even HAVE to travel above mach 5. Why? Because interceptors don't Chase. They Intercept. The point isn't to Follow the target, the point is to be where the target is going. It's like leading your shots, the point isn't to follow your target's movement, it's to be where your target is GOING to be.
the missile knows where it is because it knows where it isn't
A simple enough exercise, as Issac Newton is at the helm.
Going if what you said basically all hypersonic missiles are useless since you just need get there before the missile does to shoot it down 🙄
@@SnorryHobo pretty much. You could literally drop a box of nuts with streamers made of plain ribbon to slow their fall a little right in the missile's path. Too small to easily detect, the missile's cooking along too fast to evade anyhow, the missile then blunders in at Mach 5 or so velocity and that wrecks well, anything.
@@SnorryHobo ....Yeah? That's literally the point. Seriously, this is how the ICBM went from being an international threat to being completely useless. This isn't the movies, the interceptor doesn't pull up behind you and chase you, it already knows where you're going. Through this neat thing called....
Math.
Seriously. If it knows you're going to be at X and Y coordinates in 2 minutes exactly, at Z altitude? All it has to do is be there, and either directly intercept kinetically, or explode nearby and hit it like a shotgun blast. And it doesn't even need to hit it MUCH. See, that cool thing about missiles and rockets is that they have to propel themselves, and that propellant is either a liquid fuel(Hydrogen and Oxygen in liquid form if you're Russia and using long range/exoatmospheric rockets, which are both great at exploding if you give them a pretty basic starter detonation/fire/spark) or a solid fuel(Usually aluminium and iron oxide in the middle of a runaway thermite reaction, which will continue burning in whatever direction it can, which means if you poke a hole in it, it will burn through that hole). The interceptor doesn't even have to blow the missile up, all it has to do is make the missile/rocket blow ITSELF up. And given that missiles are not armored or really structurally reinforced at all, because that would add weight and reduce range significantly, all you Really have to do is hit it with a strong enough pressure wave to crack it just enough to put that fuel someplace it's not supposed to be, whether that be cracking the LOX tank causing it to blow out and ignite off its own exhaust, or cracking the solid motor causing a new ignition line to form along that crack which, I should remind you, is a thermite reaction, so it will very, VERY quickly blast its way through whatever casing that solid motor is shoved into.
There's a reason the US Navy is moving away from missile systems. Intercept systems are getting better and better, the Navy is now looking into GPS guided shells and loitering munitions, which are just Drones that can be launched by the dozen, are tiny, don't pick up on radar very easily, and are great at turning one big thing into several very very small things.
Those missiles aren't true hypersonic maneuvering missiles they are just air launched ballistic missiles
At the final mile there aren't.
Hypersonic and Maneuvering dont mean what you think it means. And shows you have no idea what you are talking about.
@@monofxide The expert debate says he's right.
@@doom9603 So does high amount of copium with this report or other russian fluid suckers.. Hypersonics can't maneuver at high speeds without breaking apart. Missiles can only maneuver at lower speeds negating the so called Hypersonics. So called Hypersonic Maneuvering missiles are a myth or russian propaganda.
@@monofxideThe hypersonic missiles everyone care about that cost billions absolutely require maneuvering. Ballistic supersonic missiles are 1940s tech. Staying low in the atmosphere requires a minimum of one high momentum maneuver and generally requires that capability to remain stable.
The reason that animation is not representative of the damage the Patriot KEI will do to Kinzhal is that the animation is based on a fairly standard soft body ballistic missile payload, whereas Kinzhal has a hardened high temperature aeroshell, and that puncture is not out of family with what happens when you strike a highly dense and brittle aeroshell material at high speed.
This was my first thought, when I saw the simulation. I couldn't find any actual data on the Kinzhal or Iskander though.
Well, I keep shaking my head in disgust over the hypersonic hyperbole, as it is simply a TBM. So, it doesn’t maneuver or evade. A large shotgun with steel shot fired in its path would destroy it once it blundered at high speed into it.
Literally.
@@spvillano Not an expert, but any hypersonic is going to have a very hard time "evading" in its terminal phase due to the plasma shroud created by the air resistance against a body travelling at those speeds in-atmosphere, which blacks-out comms and sensors. IIRC, the theoretical danger of hypersonics is their ability to maneuver in the middle phase of their flight, thus giving them the ability to approach a target from almost any angle at tremendous speed, which makes detection and interception before impact very challenging for existing defense networks, which tend to be pretty directional.
@@michaelccozens the plasma obscures view by the missile partially, not fully. Pershing missiles used a skip reentry to give greater range and make interception more difficult. That, while guided by internal ground mapping radar to their target at hypersonic velocities.
Maneuvering is uglier though, as at those speeds, any sharp turn incurs insane G forces. That greatly limits maneuvering ability alone. Detection of plasma is easy enough, it is ionized, so it’ll generate radio noise and also be phenomenally bright in IR. Precision interception is difficult, as one’s fragmentation and blast wave field could literally be passed before entering into the warhead’s flight path, but not impossible. As I said, literal steel shotgun pellets of .25 cal or so would be more than sufficient for the warhead to blunder into at high speed - effectively being stationary as the warhead slams into the shrapnel at Mach 5+.
That's not a Khinzal nose assembly.
The Russian ballistic missiles only travel hypersonic after they reach enter the atmosphere. Since they are ballistic and not cruise missiles they have a predictable flight trajectory. This makes it slightly easier for the Patriot Missiles to intercept the Russian missiles.
Hey Ryan, you helped inspire me to get serious about pursuing a career in cybersecurity. I'm still working a dead end job but I'm doing everything thing I can to get my foot in the door. Taking every opportunity to learn. Hopefully I'll be able to go back to college soon too. I'm loving everything about the field.
I sincerely hope that your new plans will work out how you imagined and that you'll be happy and successful in college!
Do some open source programming. Helps get experience. Open source projects help a lot.
@@jdo8405 i have CompTIA network+ cert. Im studying for security+, and CySA+. Trying to learn python and sql when i can. I hope to maybe specialize in offensive stuff or forensics in the future. That's what im interested in. Thank you for the advice.
@@bobfg3130 I've been trying to learn python and I'm not quite able to grasp it well as far as writing actual programs goes. Have any tips of how i can get started on understanding the big picture? If that makes sense? Should i just play around with some simple scripts or whatever?
Change your prompt as needed. For example, you could say, “I already understand basic, syntax, variables, and constants, but don’t understand while and for loops and conditionals” the more information you give it, the better your response will be.
During the final approach every missile stops being hypersonic. Because you lack control at those speeds.
It's not that the missile loses control is that has a tendency to atomize itself when it turns too much while Hypersonic cuz they're only made to go Hypersonic in One direction not while turning!
@@lorenzamccoy7512it's both. Control surfaces don't work so well at really high speeds.
@@dynamicworlds1 Control surfaces can be made to work even at really high speeds. But higher the speed, the higher the cost. The more expensive, the more narrow its use case becomes. At what point does the juice become not worth the squeeze?
@@sammiller6631 I understand this because I watched Perun last week lmao
As a missile, I can confirm what he is saying, it's definitely 100% tru...
Thank you once again young man for putting the truth out there
Thank you for your detailed and diligent analysis. Brilliant 👏
It was only ineffective after active in the gulf because some engineer didn't understand ieee-754 and how to do floating point math in binary. And even then it was after the system had been running too long without a reboot.
I like the content you post online. If you keep recording I'll keep watching it.
Great video on this Ryan
Love the 7th ID patch on the shelf. We invaded Panama in 1989 to arrest General Manuel Noriega and was the toughest best equipped light infantry division ever in army history! We set the standard for 10th Mountain and 25th Infantry Hawaii! 🇺🇸👍
Endless amounts of gratitude and appreciation for you, sir McBeth. I very much enjoy your videos and I’m consistently on the look out for more to watch🫡 Your channel is awesomesauce
from saudi to ukraine patriot missiles have been exposed for being an utter disaster. if this were russian equipment we'd never hear the end of how bad it is.
The Kinzhal is made from a ceramic composite similar to the material heat resistant tiles on space capsules are made of, making the pictures look legit (it even has the streaks similar to the streaks on heat resistant tiles)
Are you saying the pictures look legit to you or not? I'm just curious.
@@iivin4233
They look legit, the only thing that’s missing is the thin metal (not sure it’s actually metal) cover that goes from the middle of the nosecone to the back of the missile, but it’s possible the force of the impact in combination with the speed ripped it off.
@@iivin4233 The hint is where he writes 'the pictures look legit'...
Nah I have never seen a missile hit by an aa missile being in such a good condition plus it's not physically possible
@@asv_active4172 it is physically possible, the Patriot system is meant for ICBMs, I don't know if you knew this but practically all ICBMs travel at hypersonic speeds.
Also the missile recovered looks exactly like the Kinzhal missile that went down in stavropol, so you are going to have to explain how that is possible.
Yes, older ballistic missiles traveled faster than Mach 5, but the newer versions of hypersonic ballistic missiles increasingly have the capability to follow unpredictable non-parabolic flight during the glide phase. The Patriot is an excellent system, but our near peers have predictably been developing countermeasures.
Hey Ryan, the PAC-3 is hit-to-kill yes, but it still has a small explosive "lethality enhancer" which spreads tungsten shrapnel, no? And if that isn't what downed the Kinzhal, is a glancing hit that did enough to knock it out of the air but not enough to cause the kind of damage you're talking about possible? Thanks, hope to see a reply to this, love your work.
Or it could have been a PAC2 that did the job and that's just a chunk of shrapnel that hit it.
Patriot so effective that it downed 6 out of 2 rockets even after losing 5 launchers of it's system with a command center
If the calculations for the interceptions are corrected in the software, I don't see a reason why any system should miss from the front, even if it is hypersonic, unless there is a computational barrier or slow update of the actualisation or radar data
There's always things like slow updates going on. "Real" systems (really, systems that tend to work well) frequently adjust themselves to get as close to their objectives as practical (for example, all of the NASA interplanetary probes used adjustments at multiple points in their flights to adjust their motion, using information sent to them by NASA). Unfortunately, when objects are moving very quickly, the time available to make those adjustments becomes shorter as a consequence.
Sorry, you can't shoot down a Mach 13 object with a Mach 2.8 object. Part of the reason is that it's impossible for the computations to be done fast enough. It would be akin to trying to intercept a bullet with a baseball thrown after the bullet is fired.
The Ukraine Air Force stridently denied that it shot down a Khinzal with a Patriot, or any other system.
The photos in the video are very similar to the BETAB-500 ShP aerial bomb, not a Khinzal.
@@rationalbasis2172 They now say they shot it down close to its target where it slows down a bunch for target aquisition, they didn't shoot it down going mach 10
@@YouCountSheep Who is "they?" If by "they" you mean the Ukraine Ministry for Air Defense, "they" said they didn't shoot down a Khinzal hypersonic missile. "Didn't" means they did not shoot one down, at all.
Super informative, thanks
My Grand father R.I.P Helped create and develop the Patriot missile and AMRAAM Missile he was a Senior Engineer for Raytheon, He also worked for Rocketdyne and Hercules in his younger years after he left the Navy. Thank you for covering this it reminded me how Proud I am of my Grand father.
The hypersonic rocket was on approach to the target, closer to the ground, that is, the speed was lower than hypersonic, maybe that's why the Patriot managed to shoot it down?
Excellent comment, I also think that it is possible a PAC-3 could have near missed the Kinzhal but a piece of shrapnel took it out. From what I have seen, a PAC-3 cracks open before intercept and throws steel frag out in front of it. Or, it was hit by something else like a SAMP/T or hell maybe a PAC-2. If it (Kinzhal) was flying at Mach 2 or 3 as has now been mentioned, it is not such a mystery after all.
@@zipz8423 No rocket is unshottable, especially when it is russian that isfrom the soviet era rebranded as "new" by just renaming it and putting a few little changes not that far from nothing, that is why puting arrested people who was making that kinzhal rockets, they were advertising it as greatest thing ever (as they advertise it to putin about anything that way), so that one seems like hurt a lot, that's why he arrested them.
@@cry2love The Russians have some good gear but this is not one of them. The main advantage is it is air launched and against lesser AD systems quite a problem but then so are other SRBMs. I read they were arrested because they leaked some data to the Chinese which I find not plausible.
It is possible it was optimised to evade THAAD but not Patriot
The first Patriot was using a MicroVax II, technology has evolved quite a bit since then, even the MicroVax -- but at some point they had to abandon that because DEC went outta business.
DEC got bought out by Compaq, who then got bought out by Hewlett-Packard. H-P still maintains VMS {the operating system for the MicroVax), but it now runs on Intel chips. (VMS also runs the avionics for the F-22!)
@@ahseaton8353 Yep, went through all that. VMS is a great OS. I remember being at a DECUS in New Orleans when a user asked "When can I get a VAX for my desktop"... The President of DEC laughed and said, "Why would you want that"? At that point, I guess it was over for DEC. The Rainbow was too late and ran CP/M.
Glad to see you’re down with the Signess
Patriots didn't work during the gulf war because the TDD system would hit the control section if any and the scud was a terror weapon, so it didn't care about controls.
The Iraqis removed some support columns to get extra range by removing weight. This is why the scuds would sometimes break up during reentry, but these pieces are not aerodynamic and would be lagging the warhead section. This is a red-herring because the TDD (Target detection device) was designed for slower closing speeds. There is also the famous Raytheon reset because the timing drift between the launchers and the missile itself.
Remember as a kid Schwarzkopf was talking about how successful they were, and also Colin Powell. It wasn't until Powell work that Secretary of defense that had to disclose how he got paid is that you find out a shell company with setup to pay for a speaking tour that was funded by Raytheon.
The problem was that using him in the first Gulf war was beyond the design capabilities of the missile at the time.
They're actually designed now to take on the faster threats like hypersonics. Hyper Sonic have their own issue because they're flying almost blind in the RF domain due to atmospheric friction causing plasma fields, it's the same as the re-entry radio silence in reentry during space flights. Proponents of hypersonics like to say that this plasma makes them invisible to radar, but it's a null return in regular scattering space, and modern algorithms can see it easily. The hypersonics won't do any active maneuvers to avoid the incoming intercepter because it can't see out, except maybe in the EO domain, and probably not within reaction time. Any active maneuver would have to be programmed into the flight, and this severely cuts the kinetic energy of the hypersonic....means less speed, range and maneuverability.
Good description. Problem: Even hypersonics have slight variability in flight path due to atmopheric buffeting/layering. These slight changes will cause even the best weapon system to miss, even if it is targeted perfectly. It cannot alter flight fast enough against a Mach 13 target.
So does the dagger maneuver to avoid incoming missile threats like Russian Bots always talk about they say it moves like a cruise missile but with a ballistic Arc at Mach 10 or above I highly doubt it they only believe what they're hearing from propaganda media and exaggerated Russian weapon simulation videos
UAF air defence command have confirmed the kill and the kill system.
Occam's Razor: The UAF used a Patriot SAM, and the Khinzal was hit. Therefore, it was the Patriot.
also UAF did not want to comment the hit at all. It's just that whole Kyiv was woken up by that very loud hit. And then debris pics started curculating around in messengers. And the rumor went it was Kindjal, because it looked like one.
Yeah. They'd never lie.
@@nagantm441 Yeah, because they've got SUCH tight control over the free press.
Oh, wait - That's Moscow.
Don't be a dupe - There's no upside to them lying about this. And LOTS of downside. And they *would* be found out, if they did.
Ukraine literally denied shooting down kinzjal or any ballistic missile that day because Russia haven't used them
"A spokesman for the Air Force denied the information of Defense Express, which, citing its own sources, announced the likelihood of the downing of a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile over Kyiv during the May 4 attack.
"I have already refuted a thousand times, you should have seen it yesterday. There was a possibility of use, but no ballistic missiles were recorded. What some heads of military administrations say there, they have already received for this," Ihnat emphasized."
@@yellowtunes2756 yeah, and you saw *exactly* how long *that* lasted. Which is why I trust their retraction - they lied, and were busted on it in minutes.
Amusingly, no one in the local press has busted them on their admission/retraction.
Do try to keep up, right? It isn't hard.
I FREAKING LOVE YOUR VIDEOS
Well. Both kinjal and iskander missiles are slowing down dramatically to ensure precise hit- so more modern vshorad missiles have a decent chance to intercept them.
@@jameswest4819 no. They need to slow down to have any chance to manuver into the target. That’s what you have to do to achieve both accuracy and acceptable for Russian army price point.
@@jameswest4819 I live closer to both frontline and polish premiere manpads manufacurer than you to capital of your country wiht like 98% propablity. Polish manpad "Piorun" (in comparison to run of the mill 90's production singer is like Aim-9L to Piorun's Aim-9M if you know your air to air rockets) - it came out of workers that they where suprised that algorythm guiding missile (depending on type of target) overcompesated too much when it came to kinjal's speed before striking target. That's obviously dependent on exact warhead (as bigger payloads will not require precison and are difficult to intercept). You will propably not belive me but here it is- we poles are are bit of a blobber mouths and there's quite a commiunity to intercept thoose bits.
@@jameswest4819 excuse me. what do you mean?
@@radosaworman7628 Here is a link to a site that I have never visited before. th-cam.com/video/VecIJo3Htdc/w-d-xo.html
@@radosaworman7628 and how in this case the bunker which was 60m under the ground was reached y Kinzal (year ago or so) and recently 100m ? If it slowsdown it would not have enough kinetic energy to do so
So far reports say that was a kill. I remember arguing with my prof about the pack2 and desert storm. He was in the camp of we didnt hit anything cause some guy watched all available 90s video and conclued we didnt hit anything. Next class i dropped a piece of scud on his desk and shrugged saying looks like a hit to me.
I didn't understand any of that-
@@osheridan yeah you'd have to know some of the back story and it's just too much to write in a comment, it's there for people who know.
How the hell did you get a piece of a SCUD missile like that?
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 .....
I believe no weapon system is invincible. Hard to defeat, sure. However every weapon has weaknesses.
I'm surprised you didn't mention the Russian propaganda component to this story. The US uses "Hypersonic Missile" to describe a missile that travels and maneuvers throughout the entire flight as a "hypersonic missile" whereas Russia just started to call all their ballistic missiles "hypersonic" to sound scary and make their military seem relevant. Same reason they describe their fighters as "stealthy" or having "supercruise".
you nailed it.
Everybody knows that.... Kid
Indeed, Putin is a tiny man with big words. He turned « hypersonic » into some kind of magical word through propaganda, and the idiotic western journalists ate it up. Ridiculous. The German V2 was hypersonic, that was 79 years ago. Some terminal evasive maneuver capability was added on some more modern designs, but that’s no big deal.
Hypersonic intercontinental boost-glide maneuvering nuclear tipped vehicles are a whole different species, but these are not meant for childish local territory disputes with neighbors. They have been studied and tested since the 1960’s and the so-called ICBM-launched Avangard may be one of them. No such weapon could be air-launched.
Hypersonic air breathing cruise missiles are a whole different story. Very technologically challenging. Russia had some nice early work on it, but this was loooong ago. Today the US, China, France, India are leading.
@@joso5554 not quite correct. Such could be air launched - from a specialized launch pallet-cradle from a cargo plane. The US tried it with success and realized that was an idiotic waste.
@@joso5554 You fascist got beaten by goat herders and rice farmers, while brutally slaughtering hundredthousands of civilians.
We know who is little and full of lies.
God bless your good work❤
Holy shit. Watched the Patriot missile video he was talking about (link) and the complexity of it is mind blowing.
Hypersonic missiles were developed to get through missile defences like anti-ballistic missiles similar or not to the Patriot. This is an achievement regardless.
The best part is it puts an end to the narrative that carriers are entirely obsolete
Hypersonic missiles were supposedly able to evade all defences and hit the carrier from way outside the carriers range. If this is true hypersonic missiles are no less vulnerable than a standard missile meaning carriers are very much still a potent threat to the enemy
@@GrundleLongDong Not exactly, the "threat" claimed is for hyper maneuverable hypersonic missiles. The kinzal is not one of these.
@@GiantJanus Hyper maneuverable hypersonic missiles aren’t a thing, the real term is HGV - hypersonic glide vehicle. The Chinese vehicles are predicted to be fairly maneuverable.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 while HGV is the right term, it doesn't change a single thing that the Russians not having these. If the Chinese having these, is object of another discuss.
Well… yeah… if the Kinzhal was an actual “Hypersonic Weapon”
The definition that everyone else uses for “Hypersonic Weapon” is something that can maneuver at Hypersonic speeds to avoid air defense…
That thing is just a BM with no ability to avoid air defense.
Great explanation and reasoning. Keep up the good work Ryan
I grew up in Stratford, nice to see someone from home!
Thank you.
Best shorts on TH-cam without a question. Thanks Ryan!
Your video always cuts through the muck and gets to the facts great job once again
Fun fact: Another defect of the first patriot missile system is that its software sufferred from a rounding error. It was a case study in my university Numerical Methods course.
Specifically, the software was designed with decimal (base-10) numbers in mind, the ordinarybnumbers we all use in everyday life; however, computers and software are designed to work with binary (base-2) numbers. Therefore, something as simple as the decimal number 0.1 cannot be exactly represented in binary format; it has to be rounded to the nearest binary value.
Normally, such a small rounding error can be ignored; however, this rounding error occured within an recursive algorithm used to track the SCUD missile in flight. The calculated number would then be put through the same algorithm over and over again, causing the rounding error to snowball to the point that the tracking system was off by significant distances. This caused the missiles to miss their targets completely.
A temporary solution was that the system had to be rebooted every couple hours to reset the error caused by the rounding.
The lesson was the importance of knowing the limitations of your hardware. You might give it the correct, perfect mathematical formula, but something as simple as repeatedly multiplying by 0.1 can cause significantly-incorrect results.
I just want you to know I really love your show. But my problem is just like anytime somebody is talking about our military which by the way I'm a 27-year veteran and we know these things that you're talkin about or we got ideas on it but surely you're taking the stance and not giving all the secrets away I just like for you to tell the people that's listening to you that that's not happening but I do thoroughly love your show and your commentary it is spot-on and it is awesome I hope I wasn't being too negative because I really do love listening to you.
Would love to know your thoughts on Centurion CRAM and your thoughts on its use in Ukraine as a supplemental deffence weapon. My thought is that it would be a really good last layer of defene for missles and a decent anti drone system. Plus 20mm is a heck of a lot cheaper than a missile, even if it works only 10% of the time. Are there too many opportunities for collateral damage?
I think the close in weapons systems’ ammo self destructs before hitting the ground to avoid collateral damage or friendly fire incidents. They aren’t much use here as their range is so short.
@@teeanahera8949 though wouldn't it also be a really good anti drone system?
@@zahjav Those BRRT babies could really create anti drone zones. The gepard has taken out a drone at a fair distance.
The CRAM is reported to be 80% effective at downing munitions. Probably be a dream against slow moving drones though
My theory being that if it can shoot rockets and artillery shells out of the air, they can easily take care of a few drones. Even if it's by a kinetic kill. Also, wouldn't these be best suited for static defences at important infrastructure (i.e. rail hubs, power plants, hospitals, ect.) Its something that we could give them plenty of ammo for with for low cost (i.e. less political drama) that would fill a niche while also getting a lot of good data for anti-drone swarm tactics. I also imagine it wouldn't be that hard to develop, produce, and deliver flack type munitions for it if deemed necessary. It seems like a more practical, cost effective, and logistically viable solution than sending more patriot batteries to waste munitions on drones when they are better served as defending against theater ballistic missiles or aircraft too negligent to realize they are flying into a SAM net.
My dad was saved by a patriot missile once in desert storm i believe. I think its a great air defense system
Your dad is a war criminal
Others certainly were great full as well. 7
Was this 2003 or Desert Storm?
@@elguapo503 2003 i think
@elguapo503 probably desert storm considering that's the last time they were actually used by Americans
Thank you, Ryan
Cool video bro, keep up the good work👏🤙
Dont believe this guy
Facts 💯
The issue isn't that the Patriot was ineffective during the First Gulf War. The issue was that we were lied to yet again. During the war, we were told they were 90% effective. After the war was won the military reduced that number to 40% effective --> a few weeks later the French claimed their 'eyes' saw 0% effectiveness and even went on to claim it was a Patriot that hit Tel Aviv, not a scud. So what's the truth? We'll never know. Just one more example, if you think you know what's going on you're buying someone's lie.
"after the war was won" more like
"after extracting all the oil and creating a turmoil in the middle East that will last some dacade or more"
@@asv_active4172 I'm not sure you have the correct war. That's definitely not what happened during Desert Storm.
@@elguapo503 invasion of Kuwait by iraq meant global insecurity of oil
Then the invasion of Iraq
Plus after the fall of Saddam Hussein many radical groups rose to claim power.
@Asv_ Active Yes, of course . . . When the League of Nations created the map of the Middle East, motivated by colonial interest, it became the belief of The West that this poorly structured map was the definition of stability. For 100 years Britain and France tried to maintain that "stability" through military force. After World War II the British and French gave up on the region and handed us (The USA) the bag of crap they created and we, because of the oil had no choice but to take up the responsibility for what they created.
The failure you point out regarding Bush the Elder's decision not to take out Hussain in 1990 was based on this foolish belief that the "map" needed to be maintained. We made this "map" our definition of stability as well.
After 911, Bush the Younger decided to ignore this "stability" (for better or worse). and took out Hussain. (The Bush Doctrine)
P.S. The tribal based Arabs never bought into this map ftom it's conception.
@@anthonyperno1348 yep, true:
Cell phones from the 80s. lol great analogy! You needed a suitcase to carry them.
one thing about hypersonic missiles when they begin their descent they actually have to slow down to acquire and stay on target so they don't over shoot the intended target, so once a hyper sonic missile slows down it can be intercepted like any other missile
My life was saved by a Patriot missile. It didn’t destroy the scud but knocked it off curse enough to miss us.
TY for your service.
Nice! When was that?
@@elguapo503 Desert Storm. I was on the USS Tarawa at the time. I realized I didn’t want to go out like that and became a Seabee later.
which invasion you are in?
@@yuluoxianjun First Gulf War 1990-1991
Hey ryan, just wanted to thank you for your service to combating disinformation. I love how you accepted the role as "The Official Debunker of the War", and I think it's helped fight back against pro-russian accounts and those who want to portray ukraine as a bad country. Thank you
what? he is the source of misinformation.
@@legendaryhero93 russian bot account posts: most obvious bait ever
asked to leave the bot farm
@@legendaryhero93 Are we talking about you? LOL
@@sensei4042 classic pro-U bot's desparate argument - labeling everyone who speaks out against lies as bot. Can you do it better? That bull is getting old my friend.
@@doom9603 no, we were actually talking about you :)))
I like how you do this and inform people because a lot of people are definitely misinformed and knowledge is key thanks bro keep doing what you’re doing
Here to let you all know the long form video he speaks of is absolutely incredible and you should watch it, thanks 🙏
If Ukraine was smart they would ask Russia "Which buildings were you planning to hit this week? We will voluntarily demolish them, with the guarantee you will not hit anything further until next week."
I'm extremely skeptical about how maneuverable a "hypersonic missile" could possibly be without ripping itself apart mid flight.
Why would you call Gadafi a "tin pot little dictator?" He was one of the best leaders that the region has ever had.
At what point in the video did he even talk about Gadafi? By the way he raped little girls
He's an US fascist, everyone who isn't bowing down before US fascism is "tin pot little dictator" for them and aiike.
You have a better understanding of the interceptors than a few of my instructors at the school house at Sill even did! Im pretty sure I can make out my old 69th BDE unit patch on the Air Defense patch thing you have on your desk, which is cool because Air Defense is a small community and you don’t see our patches around often. I miss Patriot and being a Tactical Control Officer as a 14A, it’s a unique job.
Thanks!
It's actually confirmed that it was Kinzhal missile.
By who bro? Those downed "Kinzhals" are BETAB-500 concrete piercing bombs, no doubt about it. Now please search up what a BETAB-500 bomb is before replying to me. Don't make a fool of yourself.
Hypersonic missile doesn't just mean above mach 5.
It means it is able to change course at that speed.
The reason people say the patriot can't intercept, isn't because of the speed.
It's because hypersonic missiles don't follow a ballistic trajectory.
And the patriot was designed to target missiles following a ballistic arc.
This is the reason that hypersonic glide vehicles and missiles are a thing. They make the abm problem a couple orders of magnitude harder.
Hypersonic is a speed threshold, it has nothing to do with maneuvering.
"Do want to learn more about the Patriot Missile system?" Why yes, yes, I do.
Thank you Ryan my buddy's a 14t deployed in Poland right now.
The airfield where they station MiG-31K's to launch it is about 250 km. from Kiev in Belarus. So as soon as one of their jets takes off, Ukraine is going to know about it and track it. I believe in that particular attack, Ukraine shot down 15 of 18 missiles. Russia has gone from launching 60-80 missiles to now less than 20. Doesn't matter what kinds of missiles when it's only a small amount -- not going to be effective.
Interestingly, after they deployed IRIS-T about 99% of the incoming missiles were shot down. However, the Russian Air Force seemingly found a blind spot where the air defense is lacking. So the numbers decreased from 28 out of 29 to 15 out of 18.
Ukraine claimed those numbers, and provided zero evidence as usual.
considering that Ukraine barely has air defences left - Russia doesn't need to send more rockets in general
And sometimes they were shooting down 18 out of 15v:))))
@@denissartisskis1625 according to Ukranian propaganda - yes. I remember how they "shot down" meteor when population of Kiev heard a big bang and saw light in the sky
About 6 years ago I used to move install And uninstall those machines that use the guidance chips for those missiles at raytheon
“Hypersonic” generally refers to ‘hypersonic maneuvering capable’
It works, and Russian stuff doesn't. I'm happy!
........ wich russian stuff doesnt work ?
@@kuunoooo7293 ????? Your blind buddy!!
@@erikbalder no ??? Tell me again, what russian stuff doesnt work
@@kuunoooo7293 your funny and a waist of time! 🤌🏻🤌🏻🤌🏻
Wonder how they're capable of destroying civilian housing and a bit of Ukrainian equipment here and there.
So this is where the Cool-aid drinkers hang out
KH-47M2 reaches 10-12 Ma. (10 Ma at sea level)
Regular ICBM launched from ground has 3x the range of KH-47M2 and reaches 20 Ma. KH-47M2 is just shorter range, slower ICBM, with flat trajectory.
Flat trajectory uh 😂
Yeah that has not really happened dude. People also think a standard Trident missile has a flattened trajectory which is baloney too.
Amazing video
Thank you
Dude I watched the video you broke that down wonderfully keep it up. I have been exploring different nike missle sight all around wa I am checking out a atlas missle sight soon. Would love a video on them
Ahhh, those holes look familiar. Like the ones Dennis the Menace made when he threw that rock through a window.
Perun also judt recently did a good story on "hypersonic" hype.
Going off of what I've heard, hypersonic weapons as they are being developed today refer to weapons that can maneuver at hypersonic speeds.
There also seems to be an element of these weapons using different trajectories from the hypersonic-flying ballistic missiles that we have had for a long time.
Either way, it seems like a really hard task to shoot down anything flying that small flying that fast falling out of altitudes close to space in large numbers.
Specifically, hypersonic missiles are capable of maneuvering above mach 5, not just traveling that speed. Ballistic missiles do not maneuver at those speeds.
Love the S2 underground patch
During WW2 the German Rhinebote (the first operational multi-stage missile = 200 fired at Antwerp in Nov 1944)) achieved hypersonic speed (Mach 5.56 = 4224 mph, 6800 km/hr) at burnout - speeds not exceeded until the ICBM era.
Additionally, as was pointed out by noted aviation author Bill Gunston as long ago as the 1070''s , vehicles traveling at high mach numbers travel in a straight line because 1) the force needed to turn them is so large 2) turning abruptly within the atmosphere causes such aerodynamic stress, it breaks up
Possibly, the Kinzhal does some shallow turns post boost then back on course unpowered in the dive. The real advantage of Kinzhal is it is air launched.
The magnetic pulse gun has a projectile reaching a speed of Mach 7.1 (There is one installed on a military helicopter. Another, On one of our military ships.). I don’t recall it having any explosive device built into the projectile, But, The good thing is the projectile only cost $25,000 per round. Unlike their target(s).
Got his Raytheon sticker up .he's just so informed.
Hmmm
I loved the saved by the bell reference in the background
I 100% fully agree.
1/ the original Patriot was already an old missile in the Gulf war and was never designed to shoot down TBMs in the 1st place. It did rather well against Saddam’s crappy boosted Scuds.
2/ The currently deployed PAC-3 and beyond are a whole different story. They are perfectly suited to shoot down TBMs, I believe up to 600km class range at least, even those with some aerodynamic terminal evasive maneuvering.
3/ Kinzhal is indeed the air launched variant of the Iskander missile, which fits perfectly in that category of TBMs. It’s just as « hypersonic » as any other TBM, since the German V2… 79 years ago !!!!
Everything is timed!
What's a big deal? If supersonic missile cruising 6 times the speed & patriot is cruising 3 times the speed -- then lunch the anti-missile 3 times ahead of the target which will equal the speed.
The whole thing depends on how good is your radar and tracking system.
Subscribed!
The best explanations of the Patriot in the '91 Iraq war and its subsequent improvements are Ryan's, Habitual Linecrosser's and Sandboxx. All worth your time.
I’ve heard somewhere that those derbies dont look like they were from kinzhak cuz they are internal components of the kinzhal.
Nah, they're BETAB-500 concrete piercing bombs. Please look up what a BETAB-500 bomb looks like before replying to me.
I also think the damage in the front was rather an impact damage on the ground after being hit by the patriot missile.
If the velocity of the Kinzhal is as slow as is suggested in the terminal phase Ukraine reported mach 3.4, that means other weapons could take a shot at it.
Hypersonic means not only speed but also maneuverability in the final trajectory. And there is no difference whether it is ballistic or otherwise.Even basic Iskander have this option
and as you know these were older systems lol just think what the newer once can do
A hypersonic weapon cruises at hypersonic speed. If ballistic missiles are considered hypersonic weapon then the V2 rocket would have been called one. Ballistic missiles are not considered hypersonic weapons because they are only hypersonic in the terminal phase of the flight.
Kinzhals are hypersonic, but before the target they have to slow down to the speed of "regular" missiles because they want to hit the target. That makes them vulnerable to antimissile systems like Patriot.
the thing is, the difference between a hypersonic missile and a supersonic missile is just how long it hangs out in the intercept window, its all about being in the right spot at the right time, and however fast the incoming missile is that really doesnt matter a whole lot if the interceptor is accurate, if the incoming missile is really fast then the time at the interception point is pretty much only depending on the interceptor not the incoming missile, which means its all about finding the right interception point, not about how fast the incoming missile is, at least in terms of interception given you know where to meet the incoming missile, its about being able to find an intercept location in real time and then begin able to reach it consistently, if you can do the first part consistently against a certain missile then the second part is similar to any incoming missile. in that case, detection and tracking is the hard part, not really the shooting , speed within reason is only going to shrink the time you have to launch, and act just like poor stealth capabilities would, if you can shrink the detection and tracking ability until the kill probability goes down significantly then fine, but that isnt a give from just having a fast missile, fast missiles have high momentum and struggle not to go in a straight line, find two points with reasonable accuracy in its trajectory and its a matter of putting something it its way more or less, with hypersonic missiles you also have the advantage that speed makes it easier to kill with a smaller impactor, so you have more room to design interceptors which are more maneuverable and have longer reach, faster response times and so on, at these speeds its essentially impossible to survive a direct hit. speed seems scary but its not that straight forward.
Your patriot video is excellent, actually it was my first video on your channel. But what are you suggesting happened here? Birdstrike?
That left top image is true. This hole is in the stadium is near my friend's office. He said that there was some technic digging something in the morning, and he send me a photo of that hole without missile later that day. Totally the same place.
And that day l totally heated some new sounds. Gepard usually make few series with 3 rounds. And between gepard shots i heared some serious shit double explosion xD like boom and next boom in second or two. Second one was louder and more deep. Same shit i heared today morning (9th of may). Who knows, maybe it was Iris. But it's definitely not a c300.
This makes me feel..... Patriotic! Merica! 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲