Here Are The 3 Reasons I Sell A Stock
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ต.ค. 2024
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I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on TH-cam full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, timeline, and overall circumstances.
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Great episode Joseph! Thank you for sharing. Selling stocks and why is as important as buying.
thanks for giving us an idea of what you offer in the Patreon group.
Love the content! Reasons 1 and 2 made a strong argument that Howard Mark's third rule of investing "Do nothing" is wrong, because we must continuously assees the company to see 1. if we made a mistake, and 2. if the fundatmentable has permanently deteriorated. We can't sit and "Do nothing".
What about companies that are overvalued at way higher than 35 PE? For example, if NVDA goes up to $550, surely it's time to sell even though it is a great company with a long runway and the potential to dominate for the next 5 years?
I have had this with sony that I baught on a dip...it went up then went below my buy price. It never really got ba k to buy price . has been within 5% and I have thought I should sell....but dont and it is now 15% from my buy price. I dont have confidance in the stock and just wanr to sell out.but I will probably sell if it climbs closer to my buy price. It was an error and I need to correct it...but it is much harder to sell a company than buy into it.
Thanks for the insight.
There is one sure reason to sell:
Cramer recommended to buy
no value investor listens to him. lol
He was crying on TV saying sorry to his viewers for recommending Meta. He kept saying the company was a disappointment....Meta than rallied hard, I hope his viewers didn't listen to him by ditching the stock.
i just wonder how he still has a job lol
@@MadCaril He is showman, he is doing his job very well, which is to entertain people:)
fair point, but then again a lot of people look at him as a credible source and make decisions based on his "facts" so there's an issue there :(@@GoodComedian2011
Love this kind of content. When to sell is definitely not talked about enough!
Number one is what I struggled with with but pulled through - sold Coinbase at a small loss, held Palantir at a big loss since my thesis did not change. And thank goodness I did. The value you provide in your videos is much appreciated. Thank you!
This was such a great video!
You should put this public.
@@23chngeit is now, not 22h ago, when he posted that, LOL
@@23chngeIt was not see pinned comment
Amazing one in my view. Learned a ton !!
Damn love this episode.
I did a ton of selling last year. Lumn, tdoc, crsp, IBM, etc.
I've done a quick check on how well some of these stocks I sold have done now, some are a little higher, but considering I reinvested my funds back into ETFs and big tech (aapl, msft, etc), ive gained a hell of a lot more.
There are also some stocks that I sold that have gone down haaaard. This was a great video to watch, glad I sold a lot of junk companies last year (would have been better if I didn't buy them initially, but lesson learnt)
I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio dwindle away is such an eye -sore.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your coach?
Do your due diligence and opt for one that has tactics to help your portfolio continue consistent and steady growth. “Colleen Janie Towe” is accountable for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she has the qualifications and expertise to accomplish your objectives.
Colleen has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I set up a call with her so I could use her services.
Wow... great great video. Was getting ready to sell one of my great stocks to purchase something that's under valued. Will probably sink a bit more money and keep both
Yes please , keep it up with this kind of content! !!!. One of the best and unique material of the channel
Joseph? Could you do a video on your fundamental analysis and technical analysis approach to identify and eventually purchase a stock?
absolutely great
I'm thinking about selling everything and just buying SCHD
I am from India. I was trapped with Rivian for past one year . I had averaged it out till a point that avg price came to $13. All of a sudden it doubled. I have booked the gains and never going to do the same mistake again. Only value investing from now on.
Individuals are still holding crypto coin and stocks? I didn’t know that , I guess a few know about integrating into the micro economy to help substitute FIAT or usdt for a more tangible exchange Experience, it more like capitalization with about 43.307% profits/ ROI weekly though.. ps.. Jo collier got me covered thanks
That’s really interesting! I’ve been thinking about investing in digital currencies lately but wondering how to do it. Do anyone have any thought on that?
After I got upto 900k trading with expert Valerie Jo collier I bought a new House and I'm now able to send my kids to a better school in the states When someone is straight forward with what he or she is doing people will always speak up for them.
Thanks for the suggestion how do I reach out to her please?
Honestly, I’m surprised that this Expert Valerie Jo collier is mentioned here, came across the testimonies of some of her clients last week on CNBC news, she seems to be doing extremely well….
What do you think about selling ETF's to buy into single stocks? I sold 3 VOO for some cash
@josefcarlsonafterhours: What is the name of the book you read aloud?
Philip A. Fischer "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits"
I actually found a PDF online using google scholar.
Love the idea of being honest with yourself. I just did this with WM after seeing the plan for the sustainability growth projects and impacts on future free cash flow. Still think they are a good company, but couldn't justify holding the position.
I wish joseph carlson had been around thirty years ago. What he offers is good general advice. My suggestion, however, for most people is not to try to do this yourself. Get someone that you can talk to when you need to. And don't do anything yourself until you do have a relationship.
Make that forty years ago...
@@neatstuff1988Actually, the book is from 1958 !
Great original content. I really enjoyed this video. Also, I just added Phil Fishes audio book to my list. Thank you.
One of your best videos so far. Thank you for the book recommendation as well 😊
Thank you for boiling down this content for me. I've been going back through your time line after watching a recent video and have learnt alot as I build a foundational understanding of investing. I like your approach as I strive to do better than simple ETF investing.
Very informative, thank you!
Wait you sold DIS??? I just bought it last week. My cost average is $86 and it’s a 2% allocation. The ship looks like it’s turning around, dude.
Joseph what are your thoughts on PLTR now, despite your video done two years ago? It seems some of the biggest cons are out of the way now… their Artificial Intelligence Platform is getting tons of attention now (organic growth) and Foundry has continued to show over the past two years that their TAM could be much larger than expected (also AIP has done this).
Best reason to sell a stock. To move the money to an etf and stop caring for life.
ETF's are awesome, no argument there. But individual stocks are awesome as well, owning them is fun and intellectually stimulating. I'd never recommend individual stocks to someone who doesn't enjoy investing.
Disagree, I'd rather pick a lot of stocks as my own etf than put money into an etf
@@fanban2926 keep track of your gains over the years. You will lose to etf more and more as the years go on.
I wish you the best of luck. Not sure why you’d pick so many stocks to create an etf when you can just buy one.
Hello @josephcarlson
In a video you mentioned the great CF of FICO. When I look at their Shareholders Equity I see negative value since 2021. What exactly doesn’t it mean? I have never seen this. Isn’t this a bad sign?
Great video Joseph I’m loving the content !!!! Keep it up
Joseph, any comments on Estée Lauder about this topic? Do you believe in the future of that company?
I always love Peter Lynch's example when people see a stock drop a lot and say "well how low can it go" and he's just says "zero, it can go to zero".
This is a perfect video for us JC! Thanks for putting in the work for us all! 🙏🏿🙏🏿
great job,
just a question: if we never want to sell then are we just gonna make money out of dividends, I mean a big money comes from selling stocks?
Loved the contents, loved your and Phils philosophies, and i definitely agree that trying to contain ego and emotions are the toughest part of investing. Ive found taking a big step back and looking at the big picture of a company is overlooked compared to the finite details of the reports. Great job!
Ill keep supporting your channel if you keep up the great work💪💪💪
Are you in favor of monthly stock savings plans, paying monthly into a stock (dollar cost averaging)? Thanks for your great work.
Amazing video! Helped a lot!
Yes, this is excellent content because as you say in the beginning of this video, most advice revolves around which stocks should be bought. We need more advice about intelligent selling.
You have no idea how much this helps! Thank you
You are a real value investor!!!
Greetings from Albania and Greece!!!
This was fantastic! Love this type of information.
As we all know, technology and the business world is ever changing. Staying in touch with the competitive situation and company news is key. That is why as non professionals, it is often better to stick with ETFs and indices.
Really enjoyed this informational video. 👍. And, I’m going to buy that book!
Canada here. It always what to do after a bad earnings report and the market over reacts?
lucid motors?? LCID ? a mistake? Or rebound in future?
Most stocks bought to replace a loser end up doing worse than the original investment.
I’ve shuffled through a few experts in the past, but settled with Camille Anne Hector. The strategy they use is recession-proof, more specifically profit-oriented, and most likely, you'd find her basic info on the net, she's a renowned advisor.
Very true, people downplay planners role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license-fiduciary advsors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience, I liquidated 200k of 325k from my 401(k) it has yielded nearly 1 m after subsequent investments so far.
It is always good to have a financial plan. I work with a professional planner and fixed-income strategist in NY. the fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income.
.Great actually. I am one of many private clients under Camille Anne Hector, with private invsting I made over 810 grand, 3O0 is ready to redeploy back into the equity and money mrkts in the ratio as rebalanced by Kayla. You are welcome
how can i reach this person? I am actually thinking of going the route of an advisor, past 18 months rallies gave way to fresh lows, just as sentiment was starting to improve. I’m cautious.
surfing the web is a easier option
SOOO glad you talked about your Peloton investment the way you did. Such a great take on it. Good for you for doubling your money on it, but it was definitely a risky bet.
Loved this content! Hope you do more like it in the future.
I learned a lot Joseph thank you. Continue doing this kind of content.
25:36 the problem in that aproach is that the dcf reflects your views, if your view is that chipotle is gonna grow tremendously and it is still 20% overvalued on your dcf that means even with the bullish percentage rev growth, there is no upside technically because the u already reflected your view in the valuation model, for the valuation to make any sense, u have to belive your own predictions
That's right but a DCF gives you a guideline against which you can later compare actual performance. Then you maybe can see which of your assumptions were wrong and maybe why.
hi Joseph. If i join your Patreon, would it be any video of you explaining how to function with it?
o you get access to qualtrim by being a patreon?
Another way of describing reason #3: Don't water the weed, and pull out the flowers. - Lynch
This was an excellent episode. Thanks Joseph
Hey Joseph! I came in to this video considering whether or not I should sell my holdings of NVDA. I don’t think buying it was a mistake, I think the management is good and I think it still has growth potential. I was considering the angle of overvaluation when I thought about selling. I felt a little called out at 26:30 😅😂 based on the video I think it might be best to hold on to it, especially since switching to a new stock would cost quite a bit of capital gains tax. I am curious what you think!
If and when it dramatically falls, you will wish you'd have paid those taxes.
It's only an 'if' though isn't it. If it was guaranteed to be a 'when', then it wouldn't be holding it's current gains so well. Now, of course, broader market changes can cause any (or all) stocks to go down, but if you assume that view then you would just take your first gains and immediately exit the markets entirely. On the other hand it could just be that AI is here to stay and Nvidia is going to become the world leading company.
Everyone keeps throwing around hyperbole like "the AI bubble is about to burst" but most companies have only started to investigate AI technology and it'll be years before they even get their first products to market, let alone this being the end of the AI boom.
Everyone said Apple had peaked in the mid 2010's...
@@nickmarshallvfx 43x sales, come on.
230pe, just buy UNH or Berkshire Hathaway lol
@@BrandonRodriguez283 you could be right, I'm not saying you're wrong, I just don't think it's inevitable. Perhaps the faith of investors keeps the share price at current levels as the business grows and revenues increase, so that even at current prices the P/E falls to a much more reasonable level. Nvidia has the start of a monopoly on the GPU manufacturing industry, it'll take years for someone else to catch up and who knows what they will do between now and then. This might be the new best entry point we ever see into Nvidia.
I do agree that the P/E right now is out of whack, but I don't think a retracement is guaranteed.
Great video. At one point you speak about doing DCF analysis, on Chipotle specifically. Could you do a video on how to do a DCF analysis please
Some of the hardest things in investing is knowing when to buy, and knowing when to sell. Proper valuations and doing your research and keeping up to date with changes in fundamentals is so important.
agree, Howard Mark's rule of "Do nothing" is false in this perspective.
If you live in Canada what are the Canadian stock you would buy?
Been a book I didn't have a chance to go through, but I loved your perspective on this. You are right for the high p/e multiple when they go up, you don't necessarily sell because they will grow into that valuation over time. Try to purchase stocks that you will never sale can be quite hard specifically knowing that your vs the S&P. Love that content and your perspective on it
I was in a situation with Microsoft recently when it hit $350. I purchased at $240 less than a year ago, and I felt that $350 was overvalued. I decided not to sell because I still think the company is terrific, but we will see going forward if I have made the right decision to hold when the company traded above what I consider the fair value.
This is an excellent discussion
Truly excellent perspective.
Its very hard for average brain to understand the criteria and be able to sell at the right time, concentrated portfolio not good for average brains, better buy ETFS, however can still buy stocks but small portion. am I right?
I think the most important thing about selling a stock is what you buy instead.
A bird in the hand is better than 3 in the bush.
When a stock has over rallied, I'll sell. I can buy again in 31 days if i want to.
I prefer long term but in this highly volatile market, i take what i can get when i can get it as there are too many good options to overpay imo.
If it's a business i think will do good long term, I'll sell most and wait for another dip to add more.
Love this content !!!
Great video I love the idea.
Great video 🙏
Wonderful video!💪
Point 3 is a great bull thesis for NVDA&PLTR😂😂
no one knows how big AI space is, certainly not the case to say growth is exhausted even when NVIDIA is told overvalued by almost everyone. the potential may not realize in the next 1-2 years, but more than likely both will do very well in the next 10 years
@@heyjianjing I hold them both, that's why I say this
Keep up the great work
👍
I thank God for Joseph Carlson, without him, I would have bought some risky stocks.
It is a huge deal if a stock is 35% overpriced. Lack of growth compounds too. Yes, you could end up missing that company altogether if it never goes to your margin of safety, but that's life. You'll find another company. You would do better in a worse company over time, if you bought it at a margin of safety instead of 35% overvalued.
No
what is the name of the book? Many thanks!
1:30 Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
great video. I’ve been wanting to sell Disney for a while and this confirms that I have to. they suck
Selling is way harder then buying.. I’m guilty of all these mistakes.
Number 4 reason: A FinTuber says so.
This is something I struggle with. I do like this content but I prefer it at the macro level. Right now fees like one of those times.
This video is gold!!!!
quality content
I really liked this video
Were you basically calling yourself out by saying using DCF spreadsheet analysis is essentially guessing? Lol
Predicting the future is always guessing - how can it not be? You can vary DCF parameters though and see how sensitive the present value is to those parameters.
bill ackerman didnt make a mistake when he sold. the narrative changed. just because it eventually recovered doesnt mean he was wrong to sell.
Great !! 🇵🇹
Elite video
Hey Joseph, love the videos and watch everyone! I am a new day trader but also have a long term portfolio.
Do you do any private 1- on 1 with people too look over their portfolios and give advice? Just interested in learning more!
Thanks!
yes we like it
Such a great video. I’m thought about the investment philosophy about selling for a well, and I totally agree with these three reasons, as well as the part that talks about “overvalued stock”. Learned so much from this video, especially the first point - drop your ego and pride and be embarrassingly humble and logistic about your thoughts and decision. Thanks Joseph and I’ll read this book. Keep up the great work!
Buy palantir
I cant wait to get out of my Amazon shares. Doing covered calls and now I am profitable and willing to dump them. Seemed like a no brainer investment but wow they struggle for reasons I cannot figure out.
I'm just seeing this now but great video, Phils book is a true masterpiece, I've read it 3x and follow his methods with great success so far.
Buy good companies
Don’t overpay
Do nothing
weeee wooooo wee wooo
He’s just standing there. MENACINGLY.
You sell many of ur stocks on a quarterly basis. Dividends.
Go over Baba earnings report please
Great topic - When I started 5 years ago, it was about dividend yield, and they all said don't yield chase!. Stocks like T and Para showed me that all that glitters is not gold, dividend cuts have come and gone, the stock is in half.....but I still own them, for the reasons you discuss, but mainly pride. Also "quality" stocks that dip do not always bounce back, PayPal springs to mind. I am holding these and wasting time. For others in the same boat, might I suggest my plan and release these to cancel out any gains closer to the end of the year and try to identify a stock that you do like that has been unfairly and temporarily punished, for a place to redistribute the capital....thanks Joseph for the topic, regards C
the abililty to differentiate temporary problem from long-term problem is an edge.
I`m selling all of my portfolio. (about 4 years of savings) I started about the same time you Joseph and it has been a journey investing alongside you. I got 2 apartments as inheritance and I`m doing renovations to hopefully get some tenants soon. I feel a great loss having to say goodbye to some favorite companies, but having made the calculations this is probably the best financial decision I can make at the moment. The other option is to not destroy the portfolio, but miss on 3 years of rent until I save enough to renovate.
Fingers crossed for some nice tenants which will not destroy my efforts with the growing popular F*CK the greedy landlords mentality I see in some people.
Stop what you're doing, you're making a mistake. Renovate the apartments yourself, it's easy. Don't spend any real money. Make the apartments livable, and comfortable. Throw up some new paint and fix any problems. Add some stick on flooring if you need to. That's it. Your money is going to grow much faster in the stock market, just put it in the S&P.
@@shinyam75 will try to do what I can in terms of cost savings but Its only walls. No toilet no tiles, no furniture so everything needs to be bought and each month delay is missed rent.
@@nikolaipetrov7561 That stuff is easy to do, or just hire someone from craigslist. Anyway, best of luck!
I have real estate and stock, and just make sure you have good margins of safety between rent and capex/taxes/insurance/etc etc , lots of emergency fund in cash for when a tenant leaves or a fridge breaks, and good mental fortitude to not just sell if things go bad in the first year if you really think the numbers work in your favor. Same as buying a stock and the price goes down. Don’t be discouraged if your investment theory is sound and shit happens in the first year!
but you hold for 29 months
All i'm saying is that we're due for the lost decade. Over time yes it's a stock market we'll go up. But there are times when You could be cut in half.
I was waiting for this one. At this point I think you have too many stocks. It would make more Sent to me to have, let's say 8 or 10 stocks that you know very well and are advancing above The market.
Great video Joseph, a lot of wisdom in this one. And great timing for me personally as i just recently cancelled all my price targets... i plan to hold them forever!