Pac-12 EXPANSION is looming, will UNLV be top realignment target? Alabama trending to Playoff?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.พ. 2025
- John Canzano has reported that the Pac-12 is actively working towards settling their plans on expansion. Will UNLV be their top target, or will the Rebels stick with the Mountain West?
On today's episode of Locked On College Football, Spencer McLaughlin and 'Locked On Alabama' host Luke Robinson discuss the Crimson Tide's 2025 Playoff prospects. Should their win total on FanDuel really be lower than last season in Kalen DeBoer's second year? 10:47
Boise State WR Cameron Camper will NOT be entering the NFL Draft, but will find a new home next year not with the Broncos. He along with Notre Dame center Pat Coogan represent 2 of the highest level transfer targets available for power 4 schools. 19:28
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Pac-12 EXPANSION is looming, will UNLV be top realignment target? Alabama trending to Playoff?
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UNLV "Show me the money!"
Texas State
UTSA
North Texas
UNLV is The Longshot. Unless the Pac-12 wins their court case and doesn't have to pay any poaching penalties, UNLV is a non-starter.
I think it all comes down to Media value on why UNLV makes the switch. A 1 time lump sum payment of say $20mil for staying in the MW and getting a media deal of $4mil a season, would be considered worse if the PAC12 can get $8-10 MIL without UNLV in it (and more if they join). $8mil a season is a break even for UNLV IF the money in the PAC is double the MW. It won't make sense if the MW is at $6mil and PAC at $8mil.
HOWEVER, if UNLV wants an invite say to the BIG12 or B10 and the PAC12 just offered you a spot in a better league and you turned them down, why would they want you? Being a member of the PAC12 for UNLV is far more beneficial for them long term because they just proved that for 5 years they played against the best of the west and deserve an upgrade to the P4.
Adding UNLV seems very unlikely, since they have agreed to accept a big check from the MWC. If the Pac has the cash to buy out that deal, the money would be better used to add Memphis (football and basketball value, and another time zone for TV).
If they have the cash, add both UNLV and Memphis. And if they win the court case, they'll have the cash. Otherwise, UTSA and Texas State
Spencer you forgot to mention Texas St as a PAC-12 expansion option. Adding TXST and getting into Texas could lead to AAC schools such as UNT and UTSA to jump. Adding 3 Texas schools could help the PAC-12 get a better media deal.
Yeah, the Pac-12 is negothiating with Texas State right now for them to join the conference. And maybe when the add Texas State, the Pac could add UTSA. Both schools have a good rivalry between each other (I-35 Showdown).
You pac fans so delusional 😂
@@Burciaga96what's delusional cuz I'm pretty sure the pac-12 could be the best group of six conference in America.
@@user-qz8gs8wk1o delusional because every pac fan thinks that adding bottom feeder tx state will save the conference and nudge better schools to join. All because "we expanded into Texas"
UNLV is vital because of location & their recent football success. Only the Big Mountain show has stated Texas St to the PAC 12.
It may be worth a call to Stanford and Cal... would make them powerhouses most years, less travel expense and a very solid base on the West Coast.
If they can get out of the ACC. They both signed the Grant of Rights....
As to the Poaching Fees, mark March 25 on your calendar. That is the day the Cali Judge decides whether or not to dismiss the case. Rumblings are, the case will go forward. Which pushes the MW into a settle now at reduced fees or risk getting pennies on the dollar.
it's california, of course the case will not be dismissed. doesnt mean they have a case (they dont) the pac will be on the hook for all the penalties and fees.
and UNLV will never join the pac. their desperation is showing and everyone can see it. it is fun to watch though
@@liljoe31you talk in way too confident of absolutes. The reality is, we have no idea. It totally depends on how things work out, and it is possible there will be some sort of settlement. It is possible UNLV could be left with receiving a much reduced payout.
Thanks for the date👍
@@liljoe31no conference ever pays the full fees, so they're not on the hook. Do your research. You're desperate to believe a false narrative for some reason.
@david but if the case goes forward, then the Pac12 will be forced to choose an 8th member from outside the Mt West, which is the desired outcome for the Mt West and likely what they will pursue, right?
Memphis would be a great fit, but it has to make economic sense for them. They aren't gonna join another group of five conference. To make less money
According to espn rumors Memphis Tulane USF are potential acc targets
PAC 12 has a legit basketball conference with Zags, SDSU, UNLV, OSU, and WSU. If they add st Mary’s, they will be by far the best mid major conference.
Always appreciate your pac coverage Spencer, but wish you would’ve done a bit more research BEYOND just mountain west options. Texas State is virtually a lock according to some sources + rumors about other schools.
No they are not. I get the logic but the interest isn't there
@@LockedOnCollegeFootballif I may ask, which party doesn't have interest?
To me, the PAC's number 1 target absolutely should be UNLV, after that they should be looking at New Mexico. New Mexico provides a geographic bridge into further expansion east into Texas and beyond. While I think it is likely that the service academies will be just fine going forward, there is some risk that they are not going to be able to keep pace in the new NIL environment. Which provides an argument against Air Force.
If the PAC plays this right, I can see having UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, New Mexico, and UNT in the conference. There will likely be another Texas team in there too, but I don't know if that is UTSA or Texas State. I think my preference would be Texas State just because it is more of a college town school where UTSA is clearly a commuter school. I am not moved much either way between those two though.
Add in St. Mary's and maybe another strong non-Football like Wichita State and we have one hell of a strong Basketball conference! Only weak basketball team would be Fresno, everyone else would be a knock down drag out fight to get a win.
If they had the resources I’d suggest adding east coast and Florida schools and pulling the big 10 coast to coast move.
Army, Navy, UConn, USF, maybe one other Florida team. 2 Texas schools. Memphis. Tulane. Marshall. Fresno state or San Jose state New Mexico Boise unlv.
That puts them at 17 teams. Which is the new standard. 16-18 teams.
Speaking from experience as a grad student at Texas State history department its true that the reasons people move down to San Marcos are to get out of Austin and to come to the university. The football program is the best it has been since Jim Wacker himself. Kinney has the program in the right direction and the university at large is growing like a weed hitting almost 40k total enrollment this year 7k freshmen.
Rumors are Memphis Tulane and USF are holding out for the acc
@drag0.. makes sense geographically.
Spencer, I have re-subscribed to you channel. Glad to see your opinions again.
I disagree with UNLV, I think it will be two Texas teams but I could be wrong. The timing is not right for UNLV, as the court case is not until March 25 and when the case is not dismissed, eventually the MWC will lose OR settlement will be reached at much lessor amounts. But that may not happen for awhile.
But who know, I am excited to see what the Pac12 a. Ounces in the next 6-8 weeks regarding more schools and the media deal!
Backups are Texas State and UTSA
Whom else will PacX land besides or in addition to:
Texas State ???
Best Case Scenario:
Also:
Tulane
Memphis
UT-SA
UNT
SJSU
SacState
Own Texas and California
Breaking News!! Oregon to the Pac 12.
Txst is trending way up
Anything to not have UTEP, San Jose, and NIU in my life
Why would they not join the pac 12? The next Media contract is going to be horrible for the MWC.
The law suit is about the poaching fee not the exit fee but doesn't the Mountain West have to get a new media deal by 2026 which means teams would be free to go?
If they add Texas State and UNLV this could be the top group of six conference
Honestly I feel it's the power 4 the American and PAC as mid major and then 4 small conferences
It's still the AAC in the East with the Pac in the West. Even without UNLV, the Pac is still far better and more valuable than the MW.
Having two co-equal Conferences will be healthy for the G Leagues. If all the power is in one League, you will end up with two and three loss Conference Champs, who will get leap-frogged by an undefeated squad for the CFP berth. See Western Michigan and Liberty.
@@davidethompson1271 the ACC is a power four conference. And in my opinion I think that's a far more Superior than whatever the PAC is even offering. That being said the acc's probably going to lose three teams to the SEC in the near future so the chance that Cal and Stanford and maybe if they play their cards right SMU. Might just come back to the PAC
@@user-qz8gs8wk1o 0% chance smu relegates themselves by going to the pac. But Memphis Tulane and USF might go to the acc
AF can’t compete in NIL.
hold on, i thought unlv wasnt "good enough" for pac2??
No one ever said that. UNLV was invited after the first round, but the MWC ponied up a pile of cash to pay them to stay.
Primary target should be unlv or texas state, secondary target should be memphis, Tulane, utsa, usf, utsa and acc teams if the big ten and sec raid the acc the pac and big 12 could help with dissolving the acc
How is the PAC an upgrade? Viewership is all that matters to TV execs and the PAC footprint is not that desirable. It's nothing against the current PAC teams; it's just about eyeballs as relates to advertisement. Same with the MW teams, small markets.
The viewership for the new PAC will be much greater then Mountain West viewership. That’s all that matters the PAC will be the best of the rest. The rest being any conference other then the SEC, BIG10, BIG12, ACC
@ then their media deal should reflect that. Their media package will be for more than the MW. Just remember you have to account for the potential 150 million dollar hit to the PAC 7s coffers. I’m not that confident that media executives think the PAC 7 is really worth that much more. It certainly wasn’t worth what the former PAC 12 demanded. And how come there is no media right deal yet for the PAC? A merger always made the most sense and the PAC did the end around on the MW. Gloria is a smart lawyer and commissioner..currently running circles around the PACs current leadership.
I dunno, Spence - San Jose State beat Oregon State this year, and they finished with a winning record in each of the last three seasons. They are doing much better than Colorado State, and CSU is already a member. It would be another team in the lucrative California market, too. I think that UNLV is their top priority at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to make a play for San Jose State.
God no for multiple reasons.
San Jose State has quite literally the worst fan base in the FBS.
And their facilities aren’t much better.
LMAO!!! Yeah, I agree with both of you. It would seem like a desperation move if they added San Jose State, even with their recent success on the field. Fun little thought experiment, lol! I'm leaning toward UNLV and Texas State.
@@tornadot2025 would love adding those! I’d even take UNR if it was necessary to get UNLV, but I know that’s not a popular opinion lol
How is SJSU doing better than Colorado State? Facilities? Olympic sports? No!Attendance? No! Basketball? No! Football lost head to head this year and CSU finished higher in conference standings. no one watches them it is embarrassing. Any Success will be short, coaches and players will be plundered.
It's texas st. Then north texas, and utsa
I think that this is a good fit for all sides.
It’s Texas St
No one gives a Shit about Texas State. Bad move if true.
I believe that ESPN and Fox have skin in the game also, perhaps even Apple or TNT to boot. These outlets might want this school or that school to solidify the deal. Oxygon most definitely is in the room also.I just think there is a lot of backroom bartering going on.
Roomers are, it's the CW for Football ota . ESPN FB and BB. They really want Gonzaga, Boise, and the late time slot. WBD for streaming.
There is an all streaming offer that's higher, but the PAC is leaning towards linear exposure.
Why don’t you mention Txst? They are a great option
Because the interest is not real from the PAC angle--I get the appeal but it isn't there
Boise should have been in a power conference long ago...
They’re not big enough of a school. They don’t have the tv market or the money, but just competition wise yeah it would’ve been cool to see how well they would’ve done.
@@drag0.. You’re both right and both wrong.
@drag0.. it came down to academics. The size of school means nothing they don't have a level 1 research facility so no one wanted them. Most schools just attached themselves to the local hospital
Boise State ranks 23rd in total AP poll points from 2000 to 2024. They are basically a top 25 program on the field.
Wyoming's Cowboys
Oregon should have just stayed in the PAC 12 along with Washington
Texas state eat em up
New Mexico State + PAC = PERFECTION!!!
A perfect reduction of TV payouts.
The new PC 12 is just another run of the mill conference The only thing they have is Boise State in football. This more a basketball conference now Boise State will soon leave for The Big something . I know of 1 conference saying they need more excitement because every one loves an underdog Boise st is being talked about in the back rooms of a he conference .
The only chance they have is going to the big 12 but they don’t have the tv market or the money to get invited to a bigger conference
@ You don’t know the going on in the back rooms of of money grabbers. The theory is put Boise State in a major conference. Keep them in the middle of the pac so they don’t win enough games to to crash the big boys big boys party like this and others years ago , the big 12 is nothing but and enhanced g 5 conference now . Broncos should has stayed in the MWC. The SEC and Big 10. Will not stop until. They are the only power conferences
Convince UNLV they have no shot at a P4 and maybe they'll consider it. They seem to be convinced it's a long-term possibility. Staying in the MW was a short term financial decision and they are investing heavily in hopes of getting to a P4. Going to the Pac would have been a major set back financially for UNLV in the short term (not to mention the bilaws in the MW are better than the Pac for going P4). It would mean they think it's their best option long term.
Based on how the new seasons went the P4s aren’t going to pick up any new schools.
They all have 16-18 schools already and the schedules are interfering with long term rivalries and leaving teams unprepared for the playoffs because they end up with random soft schedules.
Top Teams are already mad about that. You can be IU, Missouri, SMU and your path is open or then Georgia playing 5 top 10 games and 4 on the road and it’s a murderers row.
The only thing the G5+1 schools can do now is form their own power conference with the best teams they can get into it.
Washington State and Oregon State are a good start. Pick up Boise and UNLV.
They could pull the big 10 move and go coast to coast. Not sure they have the resources.
But I’d pick up Tulane. Navy. Army. Louisiana. Marshall. Memphis. South Florida. UConn.
Maybe some Texas teams but ehhhhhh. Utsa and Texas state and north Texas aren’t that good. Sam Houston has the most upside in terms of prestige.
@@jbaker7439 look at where Texas State is now and theirs not that big of a difference between Texas State, UNT and Sam Houston State and that may change but the programs are all in similar situations.
not. gonna. happen. however it is entertaining watching the pac negotiate a media deal without full membership and coming back to lowly UNLV, hat in hand
If UNLV moves to the pac it’ll be really risky for only another couple million. Whereas they could stay in the MW keep growing the UNLV brand with more success + their state of the art facilities + NFL stadium + a growing TV market and entice a p4 to invite them
Hilarious 😂.