Stephen Kotkin: China, Russia, And American Freedom | Hoover Virtual Policy Briefing
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 มิ.ย. 2024
- Recorded June 25, 2020, 11AM PST
Stephen Kotkin Discusses China, Russia, And American Freedom.
The Hoover Institution presents an online virtual briefing series on pressing policy issues, including health care, the economy, democratic governance, and national security. Briefings will include thoughtful and informed analysis from our top scholars.
ABOUT THE FELLOW
Stephen Kotkin is a Hoover senior fellow and a Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University. In addition to conducting research in the Hoover Library and Archives for three decades, he is also founder of Princeton’s Global History Initiative. Kotkin’s research and publications encompasses geopolitics and authoritarian regimes in history and in the present, and he has also participated in numerous National Intelligence Council events over the years.
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The efficiency of Stephen Kotkin’s teaching is staggering. I feel as though I’ve read several books by the end of each talk.
Excellent interview, thank you. Dr Kotkin is a national treasure.
I'm a simple man, I see a Stephen Kotkin video and I watch it.
Same
exactly, 0 room for doubt
Me too.
Kotkin is a great listen. Total command and clarity. No fluff.
Speaking of diversity of opinions, I’ve become so jaded and so conservative as a result of recent events that, that it’s refreshing to have Stephen bring up new ways of looking at things that aren’t a stereotypical party line from either the left or right.
I just want to say that between Good Fellows, Uncommon Knowledge and a whole host of other discussions with the likes of Stephen Kotkin, I have learned a lot from the Hoover Institution. Thanks a lot!
Dr. Kotkin has the gift of subtle, agreeable humor and rational clarity to a rare degree. Very refreshing to young & old, happy or grumpy. Thanks, Tom.
“John Bolton never met a war he didn’t like”... Gold ⭐️
Always good to listen to prof Kotkin. He has a unique talent of breaking intricate situations down to their primary components such that even I can follow.
Love intellectual Joe Pesci. He has such an amazing way of explaining things.
My identical thoughts ! . . . ( "Funny? you think I'm funny?")
Bruh 😂
To go has he
Condoleezza Rice and Stephen Kotkin one day after another?? My god Hoover Institution, you’re spoiling us!
Always a pleasure to hear Mr.Kotkin. I loved his work on Stalin.
Another interesting interview with Kotkin whom I listen to every chance I get. Have learnt much and I'm very grateful.
"I dont want to talk about inclusivity (or diversity). Let's talk about Excellence."
👏👏👏👏👏
Dr. Kotkin, when oh when will you be releasing the third book of your Stalin trilogy?
Stephen can verbalise the most difficult things
Stephen Kotkin on form here as always- balanced, sensible and inclusive, yet not weak, is a good way of approaching political, diplomatic and social issues. Would love to hear his thoughts on how Putin is looking to extend his power for the coming decades following the victory parade in Moscow a few days ago..
Thank you Professor Kotkin! You’re always so extremely insightful analyzing geopolitical issues. I always come away, after watching one of your videos, with a fresh and refined viewpoint on an issue!
Always enjoy listening to mr Kotkin! I wish more of his written work was recorded into audiobooks.
Kotkin is a towering intellect with the rare ability to break down very complex issues into ways a layman like me can understand. Could listen to him all day.
Kotkin bases his opinions so strongly in historical and cultural context that it is very difficult to disagree with him. We conservatives need to follow his example, I'm tired of pundits who haven't done any homework.
Almost entirely on point.
The most important takeaway in relation to China: "we (US) are the only one that can defeat us".
However I disagree with the approach regarding China. Given the rapid impending financial collapse of China, a Reagan style policy will not have the time to work and a military confrontation of some kind initiated by China, most likely towards a US ally is inevitable in my opinion.
Very good,
Look at China v. India happening right now. Plus PRC v. Hong Kong. Plus PRC v. Taiwan and the actions of the PRCLA in the international waters local to them.
Aggression is ramping up.
Excellent! Thank you for this thoughtful and provocative discussion. I hung on every word.
good interview. also need to interview.. Thomas Sowell and Walter Williams on current events
Place this under: Things that should be Trending
Mr. Kotkin is one of my favorite guests. Great talk.
Interesting interview w. Dr. Kotkin. Of particular note was his discussion of the potential approaches to Communist China now available to the US, as well as the necessity of the CCP retaining a monopoly on political power in order to avoid China having a "Gorbachev moment." One could only imagine what would happen if an Dubček
/Gorbachev type of reformer got into Xi's position. As Kotkin notes, the power of the CCP would likely collapse in a manner similar to the way Soviet power collapsed in the 1980s-1990s. Could one imagine the CCP agreeing to allow, let's say, the Kuomintang to run as a legal party in elections and then actually expect to survive, much less remain dominant politically? Hardly. Also good analysis on political motives for alternating waves of government oppression/liberalization cycles with respect to private enterprise in China.Looking forward to his 3rd volume of his biography of Stalin!
Supposedly, Georgi Arbatow said something like this in 1989 to the West: "We are going to do you a horrible deed: we are going to take away your enemy." Along that logic, Xi's regime might be a good thing, for the democratic West to re-collect itself together?
If there were an election in China, most likely CCP would still stay in power, for people there have been brainwashed for so long.
"Let's call that the John Bolton position"....lol
I’m very impressed with Shelby Steele. He managed to explain complex political issues so well that even a politically naive person such as I could comprehend. Many thanks
Lol, the John Bolton method
thank you Mr.Gilligan and Professor Kotkin, great interview👍
Stephen has a way of calmly and clearly bringing his expertise forward. I am never disappointed by his perspective. It is always hopeful. It also includes all of the components of discussion into a plan of action. Thank you guys for this great discussion
Maybe I’m too pessimistic but I think Mr. Kotkin is a little too optimistic about the situation in America right now.
Great discussion. Prof Kotkin's clarity of thought is impressive.
Love this guy. Can't wait for work to finish!
A goldmine of knowledge and insights. Thanks professor Kotkin! And kudos to the host who can frame those big questions in the right context.
Mr. Kotkin is one of the clearest thinkers, one of the deepest thinkers, available to average peeps like me who are interested in saving the American Experiment. His counsel is informed by a profound understanding of critical world history. I watch dozens of TH-cam videos every week in my search for substance, and no person is more vital in this conversation - the conversation of conserving and protecting the American Experiment. His wisdom demands a bigger platform. I hope and pray this happens.
Stephen Klotkin: a brilliant and critically important voice. Thank you Hoover for this and all of your presentations.
Corretion:"Kotkin".
Whoa " Gilligan" ... Now every Hoover institute video I will think of "Gilligans island" song... ' the tiny ship was tossed... with the millionaire , Professor Kotin too...'
This was amazing.
Amazing. Thank you so much!
Wonderful. These are such important reminders on strategies and towards the way moving forward for everyone.I haven't had much time lately to watch recent uploads unfortunately ,so this was most welcome Thankyou so much.Enjoy your day. 😊
Thanks for talking about this. Good information.
Amazing as usual Kotkin.
Professor Kotkin issues a call to better articulate our thinking and tolerate and have a discussion to determine policies. Thank you for your enlightenment.
A great primer on where we stand right now! Excellent!
Always the most cogent, interesting voice in his issue area. Envy the direct interactions his students get.
if by “we” don’t mean the same thing then how can “we” live together in peace?
Kotkin! Helllllls yeah.
Whose finishing their chocolate shake at around the 3:30 mark?
Rich authoritarian regime: Roman Empire
Not even comparable to Song Dynasty of China.
what's the books Kotkin's got on the shelves ? besides Kissinger's Diplomacy and I can make out "The Storm of War", can anybody tell the others ?
Stephen Kotkin is perhaps the most astute American geopolitical strategist working today. However, I have to disagree with two of his observations in this briefing:
1. His belief in the strength of American Institutions is something I have also shared, but unfortunately, there is evidence of significant cracks. There are calls for further changes in Congressional supermajority rules, in addition to the 2013 removal of the Senate rule requiring supermajority for certain cloture motions. The attempts to grant statehood to DC is part of the same momentum, as is the growing sentiment on the Left advocating for "stacking" the Supreme Court if they win the Oval Office, to bypass the separation of powers and achieve the rapid changes they cannot achieve otherwise.
2. Mr. Floyd's death in police custody was indeed sickening, as any death is. But until a proper investigation is concluded, nobody, including Mr. Kotkin, can know if it was a "horrible wrong." Just as likely it may have been a horrible accident. The body cam transcript shows that the officers believed that Mr. Floyd was in a state of "excited delirium" (potentially extremely dangerous to himself or others) and protocol in such cases is to restrain and hold until paramedics arrive. The official coroner's report also states that Mr. Floyd died of heart failure, which is not uncommon with fentanyl use. Plus, there is no evidence whatsoever that Mr. Floyd would have been treated differently had he been white. I understand the reasons why Mr. Kotkin may have felt obliged to say this "horrible wrong" bit, but it makes it all even more reminiscent of "1984."
Find solutions? America is about to fall.
New Kotkin video!!!
Great interview and unbiased and fair for most part
This is a very smart interview.
Great talk
On recorded books, the third volume of his Stalin biography is already listed as to be released in November. I don't see this information anywhere else. Would be great if someone could confirm it.
This is a pinnacle interview that few will ever know.
Professor Kotking says that he cannot predict the future. However, he knows what needs to be done to create a better future. In order to accomplish this, one needs to know history. The professor knows the relevant history, exhibited well here!
4:56 Excuse me Mr. Kotkin, what? No Sir, Hungary and Poland are not that at all.
People in both of these countries choosen those in power democratically to counter balance internal EU politics to better serve their interest. It's well known phenomena in EU and abroad to paint political opposition as authoritarian and this is no exception. You should know this.
Andrew Raphael Lukasik but the methods of Poland are authoritarian and not constitutional. The current administrations in Poland are doing much to suspend the rights, with little regard to constitutional oversight, of those who are LGBT or those who mistake “Nazi death camps in poland” for “polish death camps,” and others.
Stephen is a careful academic, even if you can disagree with him I don’t think it’s proper to describe his characterization as being intellectually lazy on the basis of furthering any particular view.
On your point, Kotkin and Applebaum must share a lot of cocktails together.
Just because Hungary and Poland both are standing up against invasion by certain others, a lot of intellectuals are labelling them this. It's a lie, but remember, at heart, there is still a lot of globalism mentality in all of academia, left and right.
Well said. To add, Professor Kotkin makes the insightful observation that both the US and China believed they could economically integrate another country to bring about political influence or control later, with that country being China for the US and Taiwan for China, respectively. However, he does not appear to see the same exact connection for Germany regarding Hungary, Poland and the rest of the V4. Such is the proper context with which to view the MSM's unrelentingly vitriolic statements about Fidesz, PiS, Poles, Hungarians, and patriots of all stripes in those countries.
THIS IS AN EXCELLENT EXPERT.
Love all that Stephen has to say about domestic issues. As much as some may profit from saying it, we are not near revolution, we are not near destruction. We, in these certainly divisive times, remain strong in our structural integrity.
All we must do is adopt a more inclusive diversity of opinion in our conversation, and allow for others to speak their mind without assassinating their character, as we commonly do now. Then move hastily on to discussion about our foreign rivals.
I knew I liked Kotkin. Rightly throwing shade on Bolton - "he's never met a war he didn't like"
Oil prices have fallen to the lowest since 1991 level . With cost of “black gold” at 15-23 dollars per barrel, the USSR economy collapsed, and the sovok itself collapsed, and the "golden" horde ("russia") budget can only be fulfilled only with oil price at $ 42.4 and higher.
Im new to kotkin but am enamored with him already. This is the first time I've actually heard him use the term conservative and so nuch of what I hear him speak sounds more centrist but maybe thats my own centrist filter perhaps . a lovely talk anyway about it
excellence in civility!
👍👍👍
That was good
16:50 min ...
34:16 min ...
PARLER does not feature videos? That's a show stopper, isn't it? Big step down from TH-cam unfortunately.
Legitimately curious, does anyone know how fluent and literate Kotkin is in at least, Russian? Has he ever lived or worked there?
Very fluent. He lived there when writing his first book in the late 1980s, and probably many other times writing his other books after that.
Far be it from me to disagree, but the emphasis of Prof Kotkin's presentation appears to be be predicated on "peaceful protest" whereas much of what has occurred in June 2020 in the USA does not look "peaceful" from our perspective.
What are you disagreeing with? He explicitly said he doesn't support violent protest, so by implication he condemns all the violent protests (as well as violent government repression of peaceful protests).
Very intelligent man. inspiring perspectives on issues
What is amazing is to listen to Stephen Kotkin on Foreign Affairs and then think that Susan Rice could be the next VP and a heartbeat from the Presidency. Even Obama knew better than that.
he makes really broad generalizations saying Russia, Belarus, and Poland are equivalent due to their desire to keep immigration at bay. It's also interesting when he is discussing Russian decline how he fails to mention their demographic trends; gee whiz, maybe that has to do with their "anti-immigration" stance...
What he's describing in China, the oscillation of communist control and liberal private enterprise, is an unstable fascism. Rather than do what the Italians did, which was to create a tripartite bureaucracy, between property, government, and unions, they mix the union with the government and toss back and forth over periods of time, probably linked in some way to the economic cycles themselves, control to private individuals and the party.
The key to success for the Chinese isn't our own inability to "invest in human resources," it is their ability to strategically bankrupt critical industries in the US and absorb critical elements of global supply chains within the time frames that investment/consumption patterns provide, whatever they may be for various things.
I can't believe he avoids discussing economic warfare. It's either surrender, war, or some opaque 'we need to further discuss things'. It must stem from his tech and navigation focus.
The Trump administration appears to me to be attempting to force capital outflows from Hong Kong into Singapore as a means of preventing China from benefiting to greatly from taking Hong Kong, which they will get. Taiwan I expect them to take in the near future. The elimination of the capital focus of Hong Kong will force them into a Japanese-style Pacific strategy. I think the Trump people think this is an easier challenge than a protracted economic warfare. What SK misses here is the purpose of eliminating the special status. Now, this is making a pawn of Hong Kong, but if the capital inflows are reduced significantly, then the prize Beijing wants becomes less valuable to them. So they can take it, sure, but it will get them less. I agree, however, that we should be "punishing" China not Hong Kong. Again, I think they want to move capital to Singapore, where it is much harder for China to subsume.
Trump at least has instincts. The Democrats have nothing. They are completely taken over by Trump hatred and the cry baby social justice "cause."
Thank God this guy isn't a SJW.
We should be importing as many of the Hong Kong democracy supporters into California as possible.
There are differences in values between the US and Russia. Russia has restored its Orthodox Christian values, it values the family and the Church, whereas the US has embraced Postmodernism and rejected traditional values, and it doesn't help when Russia feels they are being targeted with cultural destruction, and a western propaganda industry which is greater than anything the Soviets ever created.
no country will be as militarily aggressive as america... every country has country & people to PROTECT...
Joe Pesci is always so eloquent !
Make topic, sime about my countty Bosnia and Herzegovina, southeast Europe, the most geostrategic country in the world
Stephen please................. we are quite scared for the United States now !!!!!
If adversity isn’t diverse ideas regardless of gender , race , age , religion etc.... diverse ideas is true diversity!! It’s the only true diversity
Please, please, please stop finding people guilty and sentencing them based on a video you saw or "the prevailing opinion". There is an extensive legal procedure to determine guilt - use that, it's better and fairer if done right.
Some good some bad. Pitty you can't both 'like' and 'dislike!'
Its about damn time people saw China (and the CCP) for what it was.
I have sent you the things that
that..............that.................that what?
thank you hoover institution... thank you sk... you are becoming true scholars in the definition in the asean lands... a true scholar points out all positive & negative of all sides... and see how & what compromises be done... a true scholar does not favor anything... it only favors to advocate peaceful co-existence of black & white(buddhism logo)... black is not to make white into black like itself... likewise to white is not to make black into white... if black wants white, black make itself white... if white wants black, it makes itself black... to make a black into white or white into black is not possible... this is reality... america can make itself democracy... show the positive things of democracy in america... if asean people see & like it, they will adapt it... look at south korea & philippines... bcoz democracy is spoon fed, up to this time, they are in the middle of their traditional values/practices and the spoon fed democracy... in truth, they dont know if they truly can see or touch democracy... are they truly enjoying democracy... are they truly enjoying all out freedom...?
thanks very insightful
i like to watch s Kotkin lectures, but i know that he is gonna say that we west have to give to putin with his 1% of world GDP everything what he wants )) NO we are not gonna do it )
Why does China not have democracy? It is as if it were a natural law that she is communist. She would prosper much more as a country with democracy. Who benefits from this opressive regime, because it must be very expensive and complicating to uphold? I mean how rich have the CCP mad theselves? I never hear this aspect discussed. Am just trying to think outside the box.
You're talking checkers. Trump is playing 3D chess.
4D* which means he's playing in 5+D because he wouldn't tell us because that would compromise our security
Lol
What a brilliant common sense interview.
The unspeakable truths are the reason why I can not get behind the sentiment of the protests. Until we can openly discuss the reason why certain minority groups also commit crime at a radically disparate level, we can't meaningfully move to solve instances of police abuse. Another unspeakable truth is that the Floyd incident is by far an outlier. Those protesting characterize it as the rule rather than the exception. We can not have meaningful discussions without dispelling this notion. Public policy is not a matter of finding a perfect solution. They exist only in our imaginations like unicorns. Public policy is about trade-offs. There are no changes without knock-on effects.
there were TRIBAL TRUCES after wars... kubhlai khan occupied china forcefully for 100 years... inner mongolia is the settlement after the ming dynasty got back china from yuan dynasty, mongolia... china nd mongolia amicably settled that way... mongolians know themselves about after war settlements... TIBET, the serfs/ enslaved tibetans who could be descendants of the ethnic hans, are very grateful in the coming of mao... there was a decisive battle with nehru... a truce settlement of tibet to china was then done...
Where is Peter Robinson, Host more or less looks bored an uninterested. Am I the only one that see's it?
Where the hell are these locations where blacks are prohibited from registering to vote?!?!
👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
some scholars during the kubhlai khan CHAOS said, russia, is a special child of the vast universe... russia is a european people that habitate beside asean lands & amicably co-exist with the asean people... so to add, russia developed its own culture wisdom & principles... EURASIA is most appropriate to call russia...
What?