Get access to global coverage at an exclusive 20% discount at economist.com/moneymacro Further reading from the Economist about the global economy in 2025: 1. www.economist.com/topics/the-world-ahead-2025 2. www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/18/tom-standages-ten-trends-to-watch-in-2025 3. www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/20/calendar-2025
Have you ever thought about making a video series about unorthodox economic policies? Like certain currency reforms, UBI, etc. Just things beside self-defeating policies like Austerity, for example. I feel there is a severe lack of interesting thought to be had in orthodox economics.
@@MoneyMacro Looking forward to it! I often wonder why states don't try bolder strategies (besides the reason that entrenched interests blocking everything). Even ones that have been tried and been successful before.
China rapid adoption of green tech is due to policies not subsidy. US and EU both has subsidy but we do not see smiliar growth. rather it is exclusion zone(can't drive or install in certain part of town) and waiting list(harder to get license plate and approval) that cause people to buy EV and green energy. just giving people carrot doesn't work, of course western government dare not use the stick. that's the real difference.
I highly recomend you do they also help build trust with your audience. Since it show your limit but how you process such inevitable hurdle and grow from it. In the other hand this is the internet where everyone love to use their proverbial red marker to point all one's failing regardless of subject or expertise. @@MoneyMacro
@@MoneyMacro being honest, if people do not like it so much, I think you should do it, your points make a lot of sense and will show that in a timeline, in the past your predictions were more right than wrong. Currently, the “market” makes numerous incorrect predictions, yet individuals continue to accept it as a universal truth.
@@TonyTrupp They're safe bets cos they're vague long term issues. Like apart from the trade war thing, which is gonna happen specifically in 2025 cos that's when he takes office, all the others could've been about any other recent year.
I understand where all your predictions are coming from (as you eloquently explained them) and they all leave me with the feeling that we need to accept the death of the modern economic system and start rebuilding before it is too late.
Great video as always, you have an interesting paradox happening if 2 of your original 5 predictions are right but 3 are wrong, because then your last prediction about "most of your predictions being wrong" is right, meaning you have 3 predictions right and 3 predictions wrong, then meaning that it's not true that most of your predictions are wrong (3 vs 3), meaning that its actually 2 vs 4, which again makes the last prediction right, etc.
It's insane to me that Trumps wants to put 25% tariffs on his neighbours, even if its to pressure through a new deal. Even though the current deal that he wants to destroy was created by his office... 🤦♂
It's the art of the deal, threatens all kinds of tariffs to bring you to the table. Then do a deal. But don't be fooled still, at the end, he will make sure it's not balanced, America always wins. He knows the US has the upper hand.
It's refreshing to hear a more rational take on AI. I know I just posted an AI related video so I'm calling the kettle black on that one... but aside from simple little tasks and the outright entertainment value (which is more or less where I'm at), there hasn't been much practical advancements in AI quite yet.
While the last prediction is good for manufacturers of EV’s, the overall economic impact is not that great. However as a Segway its possible 2025 will see us deploying green energy, including nuclear, in a far more efficient manner. That would have a major economic impact. I also suspect energy costs as a whole may drop, driving by increased oil and gas production. That would have an ever greater positive economic impact. But the debt issue is a major one and i suspect that dealing with that may well cause significant political disruption.
Inflation came back down to earth, but prices certainly didn't. And that's the one thing everyone talking about that issue seems to forget. Just because prices aren't going up at an insane pace doesn't suddenly mean things are affordable now.
You are enthusiastic about green energy but it would be quite interesting if you did a video separating out subsidies etc from the cost and looking at the real energy value/cost of various green energy solutions - that really are only partial solutions since they require an associated baseline energy source besides.
Good stuff, i see that we will see many innovations next year on the quantum level driven via AI/large computing. This will be in chips/batteries/solar panels/metallurgy and much more it is an underestimated field in the media. Just as huge as AI for sure.
No quantum computers to date are in a usable condition - none are actually even near the performance of a serious conventional workstation level performance let alone super computer levels. There are still many fundamental challenges to solve before quantum computers are better at anything non trivial than conventional - I await the day, but I don't think it will be this decade. And no current ML models aren't helping with advanced material sciences, which is what every hard engineering problem has to solve - especially when the real challenge in science is getting reasonable, diligent, ethical scientists and not the academia publish-to-survive ones.
Could you analyse -job chances for EU ingeneers in automotive and companies linked to automotive. More recently more and more colleagues of mine have lost their job in automotive. As for example at ZF. Do they need to find a job in China? What about this type of well-paid , qualified job. What to do with this workforce.
@@SnowBalling no. Exact predictions are close to impossible. But, conditional predictions can still be made. If you do this then this will likely happen
I love that he is so frank about his predictions. Most economists think they need to make educated guesses on everything and stand by their bullshit, no matter how things develop and change.
Btw as a person with design knowledge: the thumbnail looks visually cool and has an emotional impact of grasping the world, it doesn't target emotions people have for economy with storytelling. The globe isn't really associated with economy, maybe a different type of globe out with additional data like money or industry. I don't feel like people feel grasping or controlling the economy, maybe uncertainty with curiosity or with a bit of dread. I'm not a member of the community, thought to give something back when you need to stabilize your business.
Would love a look back video next year and still good idea tho! I love hearing the rationale and lookback easier to explain since hindsight is 20/20. Will be funny to see where market was wrong too lol
6:59 I disagree, I think you base your prediction about AI on the public use of AI. And not what is happening in research. Because there we see that, as predicted, its development is exponential. Just a few weeks ago, they were successful tests and training of a new layer that does not predict by tokens, but by whole token paths . Similar like humans don’t think about the next word but about a whole sentence
They lowered their inflation down (They passed Turkey now we are in just above zimbabwe now fuck) and they give positive in government spendings but their growth got effected a lot.
Here's a nutty idea: Coyotes [and surely many other organisms] somehow adjust their brood sizes depending on resource availability and extinction threats; is it possible humans can do the same? Coyotes surely do not understand this mechanism consciously; maybe we can't either...
It's ironic that the negative point of the slowing global economy was followed by the "positive" point of continuing solar power adoption, which is mostly fueled by government subsidies (not even close to price competitive without them), which those subsidies in turn are government spending and contribute to the previous problem... Excessive debt and slow growth. Do modern economies have any reliable way of growing beyond massive and unsustainable deficit spending? Because a lot of advanced economies are near their breaking point in debt to GDP ratios. Are there truly no other ideas?
In regard to the possibility of Canada having a debt crisis, I think we're more likely to have a crisis due to the extremely high level of consumer debt, rather than government debt. Consumer debt in Canada is now 2.5 trillion (Canadian) dollars, an astonishing amount. I'm pretty sure it's unprecedented in our history. I don't know how a consumer debt crisis would play out, but it seems pretty likely to me. When the majority of Canadians owe at least $21000 and depend on credit cards to pay for basic needs, it looks like the economy is broken somehow. Who owns that debt? Is the whole 2.5 trillion on the books of credit card companies? If consumer debt is increasing at an increasing rate, there may come a day when those companies get in trouble themselves, because it's obvious they're never going to get their money back. And if they stop loaning money to ordinary citizens, the whole economy could crumble. Consumer spending would fall dramatically, dragging everything else down with it. And who would bail is out? The government? Not when the problem is that huge. They'd have their own debt crisis if they tried.
Joeri, you forgot to talk about the massive AI infrastructure investments in 2025 (datacenters, power plants & transmission etc to power GPUs). Even if AI doesn't increase productivity in 2025, these investments alone will trigger GDP growth - just like it did at the end of the 90s when building the Internet infrastructure. Building those datacenters is already boosting many manufacturing industries and will accelerate next year.
@MoneyMacro and I think you are wrong. We're talking about a couple hundred billions of incremental investment for GPU and Datacenters alone - and there's a multiplier effect of course. Half a trillion of total impact would be 0.5% growth for the World economy - most of it in the US and a few other countries like Taiwan and Malaysia
Ironically, the main interrogation now is indeed to know if these massive investments are really rational and econimically sustainable. These delirium CAPEX are what could trigger the massive correction in US stocks and wipe out billions in valuation worldwide if the 7 magnificients are unable to convince that they can generate decent revenues from IA to justify these investments. See you on march april to have a first stress test.
@@realruppert351 I'd argue it is too soon to worry - AI labs have giant 2-3year investment plans and will pursue it regardless of near-term financial returns, the LT opportunity is just too large. Other metrics like user growth are more relevant IMO at this point of the cycle, but this is trending very well
I will say this I think your comment on productivity is partially if not mainly fueled by Rising inequality because it prevents the lower classes from participating in ever-growing consumption
Borrow money from your own central bank, not the market. Then write it off. As long as you have some unused resources. If economy is running at full physical capacity., more borrowing from central bank will just fuel,inflation.
Austerity sounds a lot better than financial repression, which sounds like a logarithmic compounding of austerity. If bad govt fiscal & monetary policy cause or exacerbate the need for austerity measures, how could forced domestic reinvestment solve the problem? The goal of raising domestic GDP is not compatible with metastasizing government.
It's hard to call the demographic prediction a prediction, especially in a single year window. At this scale, you are essentially predicting that mentioned countries will not experience a dramatic, sudden and non-reversible increase/decrease in quality of life that will immediately reflect in birth/death rates or age of retirement and immigration. Regarding innovation, the decreased rate of innovation due to demographics in developed countries could also, instead, allow less developed countries to break the historic trend and catch up to developed countries, for the same number of researchers reason.
Any type of ressource can be translated in terms of energy use, any type of innovation in term of information, but their is a fundamental limit in the amount of energy you need for bit of information, therefore with a finite of energy and ressources, growth will always have to halt at some point, this is physics.
Financial repression in India : any amount exceeding 7lakh (roughly entry level car here, whose staandard is already too low) attracts 20% tds and interest rate is taxed at 30%
Let's make sure MoneyMacro cycles back at the end of 2025 to review his predictions for the year. I've sound whatever economist predict the opposite happens.
Nothing wrong with a pen or other overpriced real products. TH-camrs have to eat too. I only have problems when they advertise fake or crooked products like crypto or land titles.
Prediction: on 2025 economists will still spend half the time predicting the future and the other half explaining why their predictions didn't materialise. Jokes aside, it was a great video.
4:05 this was immediately obvious to me. Tariff threats against bordering friendly nations with a large trade volume? Leverage by threat, Trump's signature MO for foreign policy.
So what happen to india?? The predictions aren't ever achived in india.. rbi said india have 8.2% growth in 2024 but it is just 5% so what will happen to : Gdp per capita, percapita(ppp) , hdi, ihdi , GDP ( ppp) & Nominal GDP?? Make a complete video on indias future 2040,2050,2060
Why would call "UK" as debt crisis candidate, but not the US? The US has higher debt, and makes higher deficits, even when balancing out the gdp growth. I find it very scary that so many just take it as a given, that the US will never get any debt problems. Even though their path is very much unsustainable, despite all the "wonder-growth".
Because they have the reserve currency status. I think they can hold out a bit longer still. But, yeah, in line with my sixth prediction... there's really no way to know for sure or exactly. All of this depends on a ton of different interactions and we don't even have complete data on most debt holders, their problems, intentions, etc etc.
@@MoneyMacro Well, you also say in 2025. I do not expect that bubble will burst in 2025. But this is really a scary thing. Soooo many economists and politicions are really hitting the "spending" drum and act like debt is no problem anymore. I really have some 2007 flashbacks, when everyone acted, like mortgage-debt can never go into default.
The UK having practically no growth and a high import to gdp ratio: currently 36.2% compared to the US's 15.6% likely makes the biggest difference. The UK is highly dependent on Currency exchange ratios for a larger amount of its economy making it difficult to inflate and grow its way into a stable debt situation.
@@Twinkie_DogeYou should take a look at the structure of US debt. About 12% of it is owed to the Federal Reserve and 27% to the US government. So there is no real problem with it. The US could simply forgive part of its own debt without any consequences.
In what way has battery technology improved? Every time I hear of a new breakthrough in battery tech 20 years pass and it seems like nothing came of it. Either because it's not viable for mass manufacturing or because it lacks reliability, or worse, it doesn't support that many cycles. If you make claims like improvements in battery tech please provide at least some reasons why it's not just a make believe statement.
Million pairs of eyes, looking hard, but they won't realize... World is changing, technology is THE key in EVERY sector, and I mean EVERY. Enough said, hopefully it will be helpful to few :)
7:07 Prediction #4: Joeri, I really wonder why you, knowing MMT and all, don't differentiate between government debt and private debt if it might come to a debt crisis again - which will not be causes by government debt. You missed to mention the a high government debt is only a problem if neoliberals make it a problem. What about problems for countries with a far to low public debt? 🤔🤷♂️
I predict Trump with continue where he left off last time with tax cuts centralized on tax relief for very wealthy individuals while most Americans continue to struggle
Powell says "We have averted a recession." TRANSLATION: There is no need to lower interest further." This means Trump to hit tight money barrier that can't be fixed without a money-and-credit system war. This also means that money saved by cutting waste cannot translate into more money in consumer hands for consumer sovereignty rather than pork sovereignty, war sovereignty, creditor sovereignty.
Good points, but do keep in mind that while Elon musk is a controversial figure but I wud never underestimate the guy, he's crazy, the 2nd point is there's a saying that economist has predicted 10 of the last 4 recession
I predict that the growth in AI capability will really slow down because most of the AI tech companies have absorbed most of the English speaking language information. And I have seen no improvement, if not regression, in capability in the past 2-3 months as the models can't turn alchemist and achieve improved capability with the same data.
Why not make pensions dependent on the tax returns of one’s children; ie 20% of a persons income tax goes to their elderly parents. This would bring back the incentive that has existed since the beginning of time; the elderly are cared for by their children. People I know are convinced they can’t afford an extra child, but if they saw it as an investment in the prosperity of their retirement, they might think differently. Of course some people would still choose their career over family, and that’s ok, a good career can set you up for retirement. It’s more about encouraging those who already have kids to have one more.
Great video as always. A few thoughts after reading comments here + in the context of Joeri’s humorous video: 1. Numbers don’t make predictions credible unless the prediction is of a numerical nature - predictions of trends and possibilities are just as credible in the context of predicting global tendencies 2. Energy costs, infrastructure and energy availability are key factors to a country’s success, stagnation or failure. Germany, Australia, the UK and Canada are examples of economic stagnation due to energy costs/lower energy supply. The US and south & south-east Asia are examples of tech/manufacturing powered growth underpinned by energy availability and affordability. 3. War/conflict is a key factor in geopolitics. The only realistic prediction here is that conflicts could easily overrun geographical boundaries that may now appear solid e.g., Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Egypt and Qatar could easily be dragged into the current war for/against Islamic terrorism - not necessarily on the same side. Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia could easily end up in a South China Sea conflict driven by China that may even accidentally pull in Taiwan, Japan, Guam or even Australia. We’ll have to wait and see - a clearer picture may emerge only by 2029-30. 4. While a global slowdown is to be expected, growth in countries that are turbo-charging their economies e.g., the US, Argentina, Venezuela, Guyana, India, Mexico, Thailand and Brazil could result in a new world balance where western Europe and the OPEC lose significance faster than expected 5. In China, it is cheaper and faster to buy and operate an EV than a petrol vehicle. It’s the exact opposite in the US although it is cheap to operate EVs in the US because unlike China the US is not dependent on government subsidies for cheap energy. EV operational costs are cheaper in most places because electricity is always cheaper than petrol although electricity availability and national charging infrastructure is another story (except in China where it is pretty decent) 6. Countries dependent on skilled migration for their fake GDP figures e.g., the UK, Canada, Australia or on illegal border crossers like Germany, Italy, Greece etc. will see overall losses in growth as skilled population inflows are halved/slashed, as inflation destroys living standards and as government corruption is brought to light and impacts social cohesion/national reputations. In short, we are looking at radically unstable times all the way into the mid-2030s. These trends go far beyond 2025 although this new year will be a sign of things to come.
1. "On top of that, Trump has so far been quite sensitive to public opinion and keeping the stock market high". Really? You gonna say Trump keep Stock market high? 2. What about medicine breakthrough in 2024? So many cancer vaccines, new researches and positive hopes.
6:28 oh if there would just be something that would balance out the system, something like a value that can inflate and deflate, and a gradual difficulty adjustment of the difficulty of work, something that is not based on infinite growth and inflation.. I don’t know if something like this exists, but if not, I want to claim the name Bitmoney or something.. yes that sounds good for such a system that is totally not invented already and laughed about because the slaves like to get their value stolen
1) At demographic decline in the EU: Labor force is still increasing from 199m to 202m from 2023 to 2024. Even in Germany the labor force still increased versus 2023. I see the potential to increase participation in a newly formed Merz government (My prediction). Yes it will bite some time, but not that much in 2025 2) It's incredibly hard to predict what the new Trump government will do. Hard to predict how long certain cabinet members may survive given the contradictory views these guys have. 3) Slowing productivity: This is not a prediction, just a development that's in place since decades (maybe even centennials, milleniums). Yes, productivity is slowing. Wasn't that the case already 100 years ago. So, what's the case making such prediction 😆 4) Basically I agree. I think this will be less of a problem in the EU since interest rates are likely to stay low. But I see problems in emerging markets due to the high dollar combined with high US rates 5) Partly right . I don't see that much technological progress in the energy transition, just a decline in costs. Have you wondered why EV ranges haven't improved significantly in the last years. It's just the costs that came down for batteries for a variety of reasons: - China invested heavily esp. in batteries even though demand for EVs slowed significantly due to lower incentives in the West - China still overinvests and obviously accepts high losses in the clean tech, EV industries because of the CCP goal of becoming a market leader. So yes , prices will stay low even if CN corrects because capacity is already there - Raw material prices esp. for Cobalt and Lithium collapsed. And Cobalt is now a bigger share of a batteries BOM than Lithium. At the beginning of the EV boom before cutting subsidies, these prices had skyrocketed. - When the domestic market in CN is saturated, the EV industry will suffer a crash there. I don't believe in the CN e-car hype. 6) The only one I fully agree. Our predictions may be all crap, but it's fun.
Get access to global coverage at an exclusive 20% discount at economist.com/moneymacro
Further reading from the Economist about the global economy in 2025:
1. www.economist.com/topics/the-world-ahead-2025
2. www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/18/tom-standages-ten-trends-to-watch-in-2025
3. www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/20/calendar-2025
How many people does it live in china?
Have you ever thought about making a video series about unorthodox economic policies? Like certain currency reforms, UBI, etc. Just things beside self-defeating policies like Austerity, for example.
I feel there is a severe lack of interesting thought to be had in orthodox economics.
@@HannesRadke ubi (close at least) video coming up
@@MoneyMacro Looking forward to it! I often wonder why states don't try bolder strategies (besides the reason that entrenched interests blocking everything). Even ones that have been tried and been successful before.
China rapid adoption of green tech is due to policies not subsidy. US and EU both has subsidy but we do not see smiliar growth. rather it is exclusion zone(can't drive or install in certain part of town) and waiting list(harder to get license plate and approval) that cause people to buy EV and green energy. just giving people carrot doesn't work, of course western government dare not use the stick. that's the real difference.
next year you should make a follow up, where you reflect on your predictions
If people like this video. I will do this for sure. It was certainly a lot of fun to make.
@@MoneyMacro Please do so:)
I highly recomend you do they also help build trust with your audience. Since it show your limit but how you process such inevitable hurdle and grow from it. In the other hand this is the internet where everyone love to use their proverbial red marker to point all one's failing regardless of subject or expertise. @@MoneyMacro
@@MoneyMacro being honest, if people do not like it so much, I think you should do it, your points make a lot of sense and will show that in a timeline, in the past your predictions were more right than wrong. Currently, the “market” makes numerous incorrect predictions, yet individuals continue to accept it as a universal truth.
@@MoneyMacro Just Do It !
Noone can predict the future, least of all economists. 😂
Jokes aside, great video.
😂 u watch him too...awesome
Some of these do seem like pretty safe bets though, like the “tough choices over government debt.”
@@TonyTrupp They're safe bets cos they're vague long term issues. Like apart from the trade war thing, which is gonna happen specifically in 2025 cos that's when he takes office, all the others could've been about any other recent year.
@@edwardmooka4092 EE is mostly entertainment. Money & Macro is much more evidence-based.
@@edwardmooka4092 every idiot watches economics explained to feel smart because they understand his brabbling
There should be a cup: ten economists and ten astrologers. Whichever team makes the most correct predictions will win the cup for a year.
Probably astrologists they are better at seeing patterns and just do a simpson predictions. Scammers tend to ne successful about these subjects
The team of philosophers may be banned for being too boring. Their predictions are like meteorology - being right about bad weather isn’t popular…
Astrology is literally fake. Economists are using real raw data.
Economists aren't great at predicting the future, but even they will easily beat out astrologers lol.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn Come on they are terrible at that. You give them too much credit
Respect for including #6
Everybody would dunked on him if he didn't say that.
Prediction: Developed countries that have the lowest cost electricity production will be by far the most successful over the next 25 years.
Yepp, that's why the US is predicted to have a GDP per capita of 100,000 in 2030
That would be Australia and to some extent USA. Also the sunny developing countries like India, pakistan etc.
@@philoslother4602 Right before shooting down precipitously
@@kushalvora7682Saudi Arabia?
Dont forget the UK!
Thank you for the video!
"Nobody can predict the future, least of all economists" 🤔 Feels like I've heard that before 😏
Thanks, well thought out predictions.
i used to watch peter zeihan for this type of stuff, i think ill turn to your channel from now for this.
Yeah this guy is way more professional with way less baggage.
Zeihan tells his primarily American audience what they like hearing. And he's been famously wrong, but never admits it.
I understand where all your predictions are coming from (as you eloquently explained them) and they all leave me with the feeling that we need to accept the death of the modern economic system and start rebuilding before it is too late.
I really liked the last prediction :')
You're seem to be honest and self-awere. Thanks for your videos!
Your predictions match exactly what I have been published about for some time. I don't believe you are wrong. 😊
Great video as always, you have an interesting paradox happening if 2 of your original 5 predictions are right but 3 are wrong, because then your last prediction about "most of your predictions being wrong" is right, meaning you have 3 predictions right and 3 predictions wrong, then meaning that it's not true that most of your predictions are wrong (3 vs 3), meaning that its actually 2 vs 4, which again makes the last prediction right, etc.
Id love to see a reflection at the end of 2025 to see how and why your predictions panned out. I wish more forecasters did that. Its super intresting.
Dr. Schasfoort, thank you for your enlightenment effort & for how weighted and articulated your assessments are. Merry coming Christmas and Hanukkah ❤
You forgot the most important prediction: stonks always go up.
I think you do quite well....and even if in the end wrong you are inspiring and make people reflect and that is an important achievement 😊
Your read my mind with your last prediction!
Great video and kudos for prediction number 6 !
Awesome video as usual. Nice reality check at the end, well done. Happy holidays to you and the family.
Thanks Joeri.
Great video
I thought the last thing economists should do is predict the future?
Yes.... but.... see last part of the video :)
I could have predicted some people would comment without watching the video in its entirety...
How much of the video did you watch before you were seized by the uncontrollable impulse to comment?
If you're doing science you should make predictions. If you don't have falsifiable predictions, you're just a quack.
It was really interesting. Please make more prediction videos even if this one os not popular 😊
It's insane to me that Trumps wants to put 25% tariffs on his neighbours, even if its to pressure through a new deal. Even though the current deal that he wants to destroy was created by his office... 🤦♂
It's the art of the deal, threatens all kinds of tariffs to bring you to the table. Then do a deal. But don't be fooled still, at the end, he will make sure it's not balanced, America always wins. He knows the US has the upper hand.
It's refreshing to hear a more rational take on AI. I know I just posted an AI related video so I'm calling the kettle black on that one... but aside from simple little tasks and the outright entertainment value (which is more or less where I'm at), there hasn't been much practical advancements in AI quite yet.
If it goes without violence I'll be very surprised.
While the last prediction is good for manufacturers of EV’s, the overall economic impact is not that great. However as a Segway its possible 2025 will see us deploying green energy, including nuclear, in a far more efficient manner. That would have a major economic impact. I also suspect energy costs as a whole may drop, driving by increased oil and gas production. That would have an ever greater positive economic impact. But the debt issue is a major one and i suspect that dealing with that may well cause significant political disruption.
Inflation came back down to earth, but prices certainly didn't. And that's the one thing everyone talking about that issue seems to forget. Just because prices aren't going up at an insane pace doesn't suddenly mean things are affordable now.
You are enthusiastic about green energy but it would be quite interesting if you did a video separating out subsidies etc from the cost and looking at the real energy value/cost of various green energy solutions - that really are only partial solutions since they require an associated baseline energy source besides.
Enjoyed the vid, you should do tier-lists and react vids next xD
Awesome thumbnail
Money and Macro Needs a discord server
you should make a follow up based on how your predictions turn out
Good stuff, i see that we will see many innovations next year on the quantum level driven via AI/large computing. This will be in chips/batteries/solar panels/metallurgy and much more it is an underestimated field in the media. Just as huge as AI for sure.
No quantum computers to date are in a usable condition - none are actually even near the performance of a serious conventional workstation level performance let alone super computer levels.
There are still many fundamental challenges to solve before quantum computers are better at anything non trivial than conventional - I await the day, but I don't think it will be this decade.
And no current ML models aren't helping with advanced material sciences, which is what every hard engineering problem has to solve - especially when the real challenge in science is getting reasonable, diligent, ethical scientists and not the academia publish-to-survive ones.
Could you analyse -job chances for EU ingeneers in automotive and companies linked to automotive. More recently more and more colleagues of mine have lost their job in automotive. As for example at ZF. Do they need to find a job in China? What about this type of well-paid , qualified job. What to do with this workforce.
So is there no point to macroeconomics if predictions can't be made?
Or is it just a descriptive field that only explains what's currently happening?
@@SnowBalling no. Exact predictions are close to impossible. But, conditional predictions can still be made. If you do this then this will likely happen
when will you do a video on complex economics?
9:40 im guessing this is USD and kW/h but it'd be nice if i didn't have go guess
Now that you have the easier predictions out of the way, tell me how and when the stock market will react to each of the crises.
I love that he is so frank about his predictions. Most economists think they need to make educated guesses on everything and stand by their bullshit, no matter how things develop and change.
Ty senpai
Make a video on Brazil.
5:24 bit weird to show slowing growth on a logaritmic scale.
Do you want to measure growth in % or absolute numbers? If the former, log scale is correct
Btw as a person with design knowledge: the thumbnail looks visually cool and has an emotional impact of grasping the world, it doesn't target emotions people have for economy with storytelling. The globe isn't really associated with economy, maybe a different type of globe out with additional data like money or industry. I don't feel like people feel grasping or controlling the economy, maybe uncertainty with curiosity or with a bit of dread.
I'm not a member of the community, thought to give something back when you need to stabilize your business.
While Bessent is less hawkish on tarrifs, the commerce secretary can also create tariffs and his pick there is far more hawkish.
I think you should do a video looking back at 2024 and review your predictions from last year.
I didn't make any predictions last year. This is me trying it for the first time to see if people like this sort of video.
Would love a look back video next year and still good idea tho! I love hearing the rationale and lookback easier to explain since hindsight is 20/20. Will be funny to see where market was wrong too lol
6:59 I disagree, I think you base your prediction about AI on the public use of AI. And not what is happening in research.
Because there we see that, as predicted, its development is exponential.
Just a few weeks ago, they were successful tests and training of a new layer that does not predict by tokens, but by whole token paths .
Similar like humans don’t think about the next word but about a whole sentence
how Argentina is doing?
They lowered their inflation down (They passed Turkey now we are in just above zimbabwe now fuck) and they give positive in government spendings but their growth got effected a lot.
At 6:00 is this not Marx's 'tendency of rate of profit to fall' theory?
You should have a talk with Peter Zeihan and tell him to stop predicting the future.
He said Joe Biden would win the election. And he also said Russia would win against Ukraine. I'm hoping the latter is as wrong as the former.
I really wish politicians and political pundits in Canada watched this
How can you say that the green technology adoption will increase when it has already destroyed the power market in Europe with 500 euro per MWh
Can you talk about ai automation and jobs?
Here's a nutty idea: Coyotes [and surely many other organisms] somehow adjust their brood sizes depending on resource availability and extinction threats; is it possible humans can do the same? Coyotes surely do not understand this mechanism consciously; maybe we can't either...
Generally people who aren't poor already have fewer children.
It's ironic that the negative point of the slowing global economy was followed by the "positive" point of continuing solar power adoption, which is mostly fueled by government subsidies (not even close to price competitive without them), which those subsidies in turn are government spending and contribute to the previous problem... Excessive debt and slow growth.
Do modern economies have any reliable way of growing beyond massive and unsustainable deficit spending? Because a lot of advanced economies are near their breaking point in debt to GDP ratios. Are there truly no other ideas?
In regard to the possibility of Canada having a debt crisis, I think we're more likely to have a crisis due to the extremely high level of consumer debt, rather than government debt. Consumer debt in Canada is now 2.5 trillion (Canadian) dollars, an astonishing amount. I'm pretty sure it's unprecedented in our history.
I don't know how a consumer debt crisis would play out, but it seems pretty likely to me. When the majority of Canadians owe at least $21000 and depend on credit cards to pay for basic needs, it looks like the economy is broken somehow. Who owns that debt? Is the whole 2.5 trillion on the books of credit card companies? If consumer debt is increasing at an increasing rate, there may come a day when those companies get in trouble themselves, because it's obvious they're never going to get their money back. And if they stop loaning money to ordinary citizens, the whole economy could crumble. Consumer spending would fall dramatically, dragging everything else down with it. And who would bail is out? The government? Not when the problem is that huge. They'd have their own debt crisis if they tried.
I'm just here, a student of history, going "Oh. . . oh no."
By Europe you mean EU or the Europe with Russia included?
Joeri, you forgot to talk about the massive AI infrastructure investments in 2025 (datacenters, power plants & transmission etc to power GPUs). Even if AI doesn't increase productivity in 2025, these investments alone will trigger GDP growth - just like it did at the end of the 90s when building the Internet infrastructure.
Building those datacenters is already boosting many manufacturing industries and will accelerate next year.
yeah. But, I don't think these investment numbers are big enough to significantly alter the GDP growth trend.
@MoneyMacro and I think you are wrong. We're talking about a couple hundred billions of incremental investment for GPU and Datacenters alone - and there's a multiplier effect of course. Half a trillion of total impact would be 0.5% growth for the World economy - most of it in the US and a few other countries like Taiwan and Malaysia
@@MoneyMacrofor countries like thailand with 500billion gdp, 1-2 billion usd here and there for data center and IT infrastructure are god sent.
Ironically, the main interrogation now is indeed to know if these massive investments are really rational and econimically sustainable. These delirium CAPEX are what could trigger the massive correction in US stocks and wipe out billions in valuation worldwide if the 7 magnificients are unable to convince that they can generate decent revenues from IA to justify these investments. See you on march april to have a first stress test.
@@realruppert351 I'd argue it is too soon to worry - AI labs have giant 2-3year investment plans and will pursue it regardless of near-term financial returns, the LT opportunity is just too large.
Other metrics like user growth are more relevant IMO at this point of the cycle, but this is trending very well
Ok, but what shitcoin should I pour my life savings into?
I have heard vomitcoin is about to explode
I will say this I think your comment on productivity is partially if not mainly fueled by Rising inequality because it prevents the lower classes from participating in ever-growing consumption
Borrow money from your own central bank, not the market. Then write it off. As long as you have some unused resources. If economy is running at full physical capacity., more borrowing from central bank will just fuel,inflation.
You should make a video "Why my predictions seldom become true"
Austerity sounds a lot better than financial repression, which sounds like a logarithmic compounding of austerity. If bad govt fiscal & monetary policy cause or exacerbate the need for austerity measures, how could forced domestic reinvestment solve the problem? The goal of raising domestic GDP is not compatible with metastasizing government.
Here is an idea for your next video: Have we reached peak humanity?
Nz govt is talking about greater allocation of kiwisaver into local infrastructure projects already
I believe Egypt and mentioned countries dealing IMF cannot do the repression choice
It's hard to call the demographic prediction a prediction, especially in a single year window. At this scale, you are essentially predicting that mentioned countries will not experience a dramatic, sudden and non-reversible increase/decrease in quality of life that will immediately reflect in birth/death rates or age of retirement and immigration.
Regarding innovation, the decreased rate of innovation due to demographics in developed countries could also, instead, allow less developed countries to break the historic trend and catch up to developed countries, for the same number of researchers reason.
Any type of ressource can be translated in terms of energy use, any type of innovation in term of information, but their is a fundamental limit in the amount of energy you need for bit of information, therefore with a finite of energy and ressources, growth will always have to halt at some point, this is physics.
Financial repression in India : any amount exceeding 7lakh (roughly entry level car here, whose staandard is already too low) attracts 20% tds and interest rate is taxed at 30%
Let's make sure MoneyMacro cycles back at the end of 2025 to review his predictions for the year. I've sound whatever economist predict the opposite happens.
At least he is not advertising a magnetic pen, like other TH-camrs
@@venil82 a what?
Nothing wrong with a pen or other overpriced real products. TH-camrs have to eat too. I only have problems when they advertise fake or crooked products like crypto or land titles.
I mean they work but they are overpriced and shitty thats all
@@notfunny3397 go watch "Sabine Hossenfelder", or "mentour now!" You will see
Magnet pens are cool
Prediction: on 2025 economists will still spend half the time predicting the future and the other half explaining why their predictions didn't materialise.
Jokes aside, it was a great video.
4:05 this was immediately obvious to me. Tariff threats against bordering friendly nations with a large trade volume? Leverage by threat, Trump's signature MO for foreign policy.
Does your analysis include China? Or do you look at China as Emerging economy and therefore your analysis is not valid for PRC.
Hey, you didn’t have anything to say about humanoid robots, they just might be the mega trend in the coming decade.
So what happen to india??
The predictions aren't ever achived in india.. rbi said india have 8.2% growth in 2024 but it is just 5% so what will happen to :
Gdp per capita, percapita(ppp) , hdi, ihdi , GDP ( ppp) & Nominal GDP??
Make a complete video on indias future
2040,2050,2060
Population also
Prediction: Everyone gets dumber.
Thats a very pretentious statement
Yeah, social media is the worst. Only a few people watch intelligent channels like this, but vast majority watch things that actively rot beains.
People have been saying this for thusands of years, and it has always been false.
This is true for the audience of this channel
@xiphoid2011 after a busy day people need relaxing entertainment
Why would call "UK" as debt crisis candidate, but not the US?
The US has higher debt, and makes higher deficits, even when balancing out the gdp growth.
I find it very scary that so many just take it as a given, that the US will never get any debt problems. Even though their path is very much unsustainable, despite all the "wonder-growth".
Because they have the reserve currency status. I think they can hold out a bit longer still.
But, yeah, in line with my sixth prediction... there's really no way to know for sure or exactly. All of this depends on a ton of different interactions and we don't even have complete data on most debt holders, their problems, intentions, etc etc.
@@MoneyMacro Well, you also say in 2025.
I do not expect that bubble will burst in 2025.
But this is really a scary thing. Soooo many economists and politicions are really hitting the "spending" drum and act like debt is no problem anymore.
I really have some 2007 flashbacks, when everyone acted, like mortgage-debt can never go into default.
The UK having practically no growth and a high import to gdp ratio: currently 36.2% compared to the US's 15.6% likely makes the biggest difference. The UK is highly dependent on Currency exchange ratios for a larger amount of its economy making it difficult to inflate and grow its way into a stable debt situation.
@@Twinkie_DogeYou should take a look at the structure of US debt. About 12% of it is owed to the Federal Reserve and 27% to the US government. So there is no real problem with it. The US could simply forgive part of its own debt without any consequences.
@@MoneyMacro Britain is dealing with it's so-called 'debt-crisis' now we heavier taxes (mostly on the rich) and cutting more fat.
What about robots.???
In what way has battery technology improved?
Every time I hear of a new breakthrough in battery tech 20 years pass and it seems like nothing came of it. Either because it's not viable for mass manufacturing or because it lacks reliability, or worse, it doesn't support that many cycles.
If you make claims like improvements in battery tech please provide at least some reasons why it's not just a make believe statement.
Watch out for thorium reactors breakthrough, it's for next decade
Million pairs of eyes, looking hard, but they won't realize...
World is changing, technology is THE key in EVERY sector, and I mean EVERY.
Enough said, hopefully it will be helpful to few :)
7:07 Prediction #4: Joeri, I really wonder why you, knowing MMT and all, don't differentiate between government debt and private debt if it might come to a debt crisis again - which will not be causes by government debt.
You missed to mention the a high government debt is only a problem if neoliberals make it a problem.
What about problems for countries with a far to low public debt? 🤔🤷♂️
When it comes to the U.S, I'll be genuinely surprised if there's no violence or any retaliation from it's citizens towards their government.
I fear that most governments aren't stable enough to actually reduce risk/debt.
I predict Trump with continue where he left off last time with tax cuts centralized on tax relief for very wealthy individuals while most Americans continue to struggle
Powell says "We have averted a recession." TRANSLATION: There is no need to lower interest further." This means Trump to hit tight money barrier that can't be fixed without a money-and-credit system war. This also means that money saved by cutting waste cannot translate into more money in consumer hands for consumer sovereignty rather than pork sovereignty, war sovereignty, creditor sovereignty.
It’s sad to
See you getting away from MMT
The MMT economists I talked to all recognized that government debt can be too high, causing inflation.
@ that’s not really debt causing inflation but spending.
Good points, but do keep in mind that while Elon musk is a controversial figure but I wud never underestimate the guy, he's crazy, the 2nd point is there's a saying that economist has predicted 10 of the last 4 recession
I predict that the growth in AI capability will really slow down because most of the AI tech companies have absorbed most of the English speaking language information. And I have seen no improvement, if not regression, in capability in the past 2-3 months as the models can't turn alchemist and achieve improved capability with the same data.
Hard for the economy to grow fast, when the population loses money
Housing bubble did that before 2008
Why not make pensions dependent on the tax returns of one’s children; ie 20% of a persons income tax goes to their elderly parents. This would bring back the incentive that has existed since the beginning of time; the elderly are cared for by their children. People I know are convinced they can’t afford an extra child, but if they saw it as an investment in the prosperity of their retirement, they might think differently.
Of course some people would still choose their career over family, and that’s ok, a good career can set you up for retirement. It’s more about encouraging those who already have kids to have one more.
Great video as always. A few thoughts after reading comments here + in the context of Joeri’s humorous video:
1. Numbers don’t make predictions credible unless the prediction is of a numerical nature - predictions of trends and possibilities are just as credible in the context of predicting global tendencies
2. Energy costs, infrastructure and energy availability are key factors to a country’s success, stagnation or failure. Germany, Australia, the UK and Canada are examples of economic stagnation due to energy costs/lower energy supply. The US and south & south-east Asia are examples of tech/manufacturing powered growth underpinned by energy availability and affordability.
3. War/conflict is a key factor in geopolitics. The only realistic prediction here is that conflicts could easily overrun geographical boundaries that may now appear solid e.g., Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Egypt and Qatar could easily be dragged into the current war for/against Islamic terrorism - not necessarily on the same side. Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia could easily end up in a South China Sea conflict driven by China that may even accidentally pull in Taiwan, Japan, Guam or even Australia. We’ll have to wait and see - a clearer picture may emerge only by 2029-30.
4. While a global slowdown is to be expected, growth in countries that are turbo-charging their economies e.g., the US, Argentina, Venezuela, Guyana, India, Mexico, Thailand and Brazil could result in a new world balance where western Europe and the OPEC lose significance faster than expected
5. In China, it is cheaper and faster to buy and operate an EV than a petrol vehicle. It’s the exact opposite in the US although it is cheap to operate EVs in the US because unlike China the US is not dependent on government subsidies for cheap energy. EV operational costs are cheaper in most places because electricity is always cheaper than petrol although electricity availability and national charging infrastructure is another story (except in China where it is pretty decent)
6. Countries dependent on skilled migration for their fake GDP figures e.g., the UK, Canada, Australia or on illegal border crossers like Germany, Italy, Greece etc. will see overall losses in growth as skilled population inflows are halved/slashed, as inflation destroys living standards and as government corruption is brought to light and impacts social cohesion/national reputations.
In short, we are looking at radically unstable times all the way into the mid-2030s. These trends go far beyond 2025 although this new year will be a sign of things to come.
You haven't said anything about wars...
He is a economic not geopolitical channel
1. "On top of that, Trump has so far been quite sensitive to public opinion and keeping the stock market high". Really? You gonna say Trump keep Stock market high?
2. What about medicine breakthrough in 2024? So many cancer vaccines, new researches and positive hopes.
Ai impact?
6:28 oh if there would just be something that would balance out the system, something like a value that can inflate and deflate, and a gradual difficulty adjustment of the difficulty of work, something that is not based on infinite growth and inflation.. I don’t know if something like this exists, but if not, I want to claim the name Bitmoney or something.. yes that sounds good for such a system that is totally not invented already and laughed about because the slaves like to get their value stolen
1) At demographic decline in the EU: Labor force is still increasing from 199m to 202m from 2023 to 2024. Even in Germany the labor force still increased versus 2023. I see the potential to increase participation in a newly formed Merz government (My prediction). Yes it will bite some time, but not that much in 2025
2) It's incredibly hard to predict what the new Trump government will do. Hard to predict how long certain cabinet members may survive given the contradictory views these guys have.
3) Slowing productivity: This is not a prediction, just a development that's in place since decades (maybe even centennials, milleniums). Yes, productivity is slowing. Wasn't that the case already 100 years ago. So, what's the case making such prediction 😆
4) Basically I agree. I think this will be less of a problem in the EU since interest rates are likely to stay low. But I see problems in emerging markets due to the high dollar combined with high US rates
5) Partly right . I don't see that much technological progress in the energy transition, just a decline in costs. Have you wondered why EV ranges haven't improved significantly in the last years. It's just the costs that came down for batteries for a variety of reasons:
- China invested heavily esp. in batteries even though demand for EVs slowed significantly due to lower incentives in the West
- China still overinvests and obviously accepts high losses in the clean tech, EV industries because of the CCP goal of becoming a market leader. So yes , prices will stay low even if CN corrects because capacity is already there
- Raw material prices esp. for Cobalt and Lithium collapsed. And Cobalt is now a bigger share of a batteries BOM than Lithium. At the beginning of the EV boom before cutting subsidies, these prices had skyrocketed.
- When the domestic market in CN is saturated, the EV industry will suffer a crash there. I don't believe in the CN e-car hype.
6) The only one I fully agree. Our predictions may be all crap, but it's fun.