This video is basically a fancy way of saying PERSISTENCE. Yes, persistence is one of the few keys to success in ANYTHING in life. Failure is always temporary and a win/success is inevitable as long as you keep trying and keep on going.
TennisUmpire TV you could also say success is temporary. There is no steady state of success or failure. It will always go back and forth. Same with anything in life. Nothing lasts forever.
Well, once you get through dozens of not hundreds of encounters of failure, you will start seeing & experiencing success at a MUCH higher rate, %, & frequency. You go from beginner to advanced to a "master" if you keep it whatever it is long enough, and at that point you will undoubtedly experience much less failure than in the start. That's the beauty of grinding it out initially - a short term investment for a lifetime of benefits at whatever it may be.
TennisUmpire TV true. However, you could grind it out forever and not make much progress if you are not aware of the problem/failure and use the proper strategy to overcome it. You have to learn from your mistakes, not just keep going. Btw, there is no level of beginner to advanced to master. You can leapfrog to greater results by using specific strategies depending on your goal. Look at billionaires. You can't become a billionaire by saving money. No matter how much you save, a billion dollars is unattainable. By building a business with unlimited financial potential or investing in high quality companies like Warren Buffet, you have a higher chance of making a billion. Being intelligent and working hard will help attain better results than just grinding it out.
Yes, of course, I never said that grinding it out is the only key to achieving massive success. And yes, systems help when starting out, and yes you have to learn from mistakes and work hard & smart; but if you give up when it gets hard (esp in the beginning) if things don't work out as planned - you'll never achieve anything great in life. That's the point of this video and the idea of persistence.
Not true...I've actually won back more than I've spent gambling. I had one week where I won money every single day.....Although..I don't suggest anyone depend on gambling especially if they have an addictive personality then it may become a problem.
It still applies - but in this scenario you are spending money for every hand you buy into and will *most likely* end up winning less money than the amount used to buy in.
His numbers were arbitrary because it's just for the purpose of explaining the general concept!! Averages can change dramatically, depending on the situation but it still holds true. It is important to try to at least somewhat identify the Averages in whatever you're dealing with!!
You probably should, if they understood the message correctly, this will actually help them. Since *on average* you lose money gambling, therefore if they keep gambling, they will lose money as well.
The problem is that in this example your expected value is always positive, meanwhile while you're gambling you have a negative value. So if you're gambling and you keep playing you eventually lose all your money
James Last According to the video's concept, gamblers will gradually lose money cuz those games are designed to lose ppl's money. It's only worth it for salesmen-type situation since they don't have to risk any money to knock on doors
No idea. I'm a victim of over persistence too. In some cases it worked beautifully, in other cases I got tragic outcomes. But in the end it all ends up on the experience bucket.
Isn't that why we have it in the first place? The law of average applies to all things, even if we aren't aware of it. Though, it doesn't equate to a positive outcome in all cases.
SmartTheDumb Yes I do believe it's why we have it, but living through this life with so many foolish people being brainwashed by so many things in everyday life, corrupted morals etc. I've lost that natural inclination to be smart and use my brain to learn things. I have to conciously force myself to adopt new concepts because I know they will be beneficial. But the good news is, I'm slowly but surely going back toward that healthy original mindset I had when I was little.
I've unknowingly applied this with my studies. Like when you don't understand a topic, you just read it over and over and over and each time you learn a bit of it. And maybe for the 100th time, you've covered the entire topic.
Awesome presentation! I learned that very early in my life, when doing sales. I have experienced all types. When you get to the point where u are prepared, you're not afraid of "no" and you're persistent in something worthwhile, you WILL win. The easy people make you smile and help you to keep going.
Amazing. This video talks about something I have applied my whole life without giving it a name. I can basically summarize it to my fellow viewers and explain it in a different way: think about moments you were unlucky in your life (a Poker hand that you lost, the amount of enemies you killed in a videogame without getting a good drop, poor investment returns, trying to score a penalty in a football game with friends only to realize you failed it). The bottom line is: you should be thankful for every BAD LUCK you had in your life, because by definition, since you cannot be unluckier than everybody else, you know that it is LESS LIKELY that you will be unlucky again the next time you shoot a penalty, or the next time you kill a certain NPC or the next time you play a poker hand. People have to have the same amount of luck in their life in the long run (provided you're not the unluckiest person on earth), that's Probability folks. That's why you shouldn't feel bad when you bumped into an AA (Aces) poker hand with your KK, because the next time it's gonna be you who will be holding the AA and win against the Kings (KK). After playing a substantial amount of games, all poker players in the world would have been given the same cards over their lifetime, it's just a matter of playing it long enough (there's a 1/218 chance that you will get AA). That's one way of looking at things, I didn't know this law had a name, now I do. I have been using it for my own benefit. Hope I made myself clear and I wish you all good luck ;)!
This video changed my life, a year ago I was a nobody dreaming to become successful in TH-cam but depressed because it seem impossible. Now I'm the proud owner of the channel Alpha Test with 65k subscribers and growing.. Thank you so much Ps: this is my secondary channel, mainly for personal use
nah elders never wanna change the cable providers. almost impossible to do that, and if elders are not in a stable mind. You wont get a commission for that as well.
This video is exactly what I needed to hear, a long time ago I had this mindset, but lately I forgot I thought like this, thus I couldn't figure out why I was so much happier a long time ago. Thank you for once again reminding me who I was, I deeply appreciate this!
As a Junior Developer I applied to about 200 jobs. I was baffled when after 190~ rejections I got two offers back to back that I easily was accepted for, immediately after having the most horrible interview where the interviewer was extremely rude and just hung up on me (turns out he was looking for a senior dev). Law of averages definitely applies to job hunting, no matter how demoralizing the experience you just have to keep playing the game.
To be honest the law of averages isn't meant to be taken as something that is 100% true and 100% literal. I personally see it as more of a motivation tool to get people to think of what may happen if they keep pushing foward. It's a way of saying that even if you keep failing again and again you may eventually succeed by pure luck. It does apply to a very small handful of scenarios but for the most part it's a way for employers to motivate their employees by getting them to think that the next door or whatever could be the one so stopping would be bad for everyone. In commisioned jobs it's definately going to be forced on you by employers to keep you going by forcing the idea that the next person could be a potential buyer, buyers mean money and that's what the employees want.
The Law of Averages makes you waste valuable time, energies and money. A good salesman, for instance, should study the Pareto's Law instead (the 80/20 rule) and try hard to understand how to apply it in his specific circumstances and how to identify the commonalities of the minority of people with higher chances of saying Yes, and stop harassing the other 80-90% who don't really care
+pianosenzanima That's an existing, structured, carefully manufactured system. You're playing with numbers that have been decided for you; not the same.
My favorite scratchcard game states that you have a 1 in 5 chance of winning, which will decrease as soon as someone else wins. This means that the law of average can not apply in the same sense as in above example. And what if the door salesman had only knocked on 100 doors? Then he would have had no sales. You have to take it into a wider context. The more opportunities involved the higher chance of the law of average to work in some way. If your parents had bought every single scratchcard in a set game say 5 million scratchcards they would have had a 1 in 5 chance of winning on each card and indeed they would have won that too, proofing that the law of average is correct. In terms of door knocking previous salesmen have done this so many times that they have averaged it out to 1 in 100. For selling other items it may be different, maybe 1 in 50 or 1 in 500.
WOW this is a Awesome video on Law of Averages, I am into sales and I can connect 100% to this video, but it also applies to other fields as well like getting a new job, finding a new girl friend, To all my dear TH-cam viewers, If you can just understand this law and apply in your field or life I guarantee you success.
You got yourself a new subscriber, I'm 21 years old and feel lost about my future. This video is really well done, I will watch more of your videos that you have. Keep up the good work Phil
This has the law of average contained within it, but the maker of this video has a lot to learn about the law of averages. The application proposed here leads to a dangerous fallacy in execution. This occurs when a player uses the law of averages to conclude that because a certain outcome has transpired for a certain amount of executions, that the likelihood of opposing outcomes in the future increases. This is simply not the case and is known as the gambler's fallacy. Study randomness, law of averages, and gambler's fallacy.
You've got this a bit wrong. If I'm planning on buying a lottery ticket the next 100 times my chance of winning is far higher than if I only plan on buying the next 10 times. However, if I bought 99 tickets and didn't win anything my chance of winning now is _exactly_ the same as if I initially decided to only buy a single ticket. That's the sunken cost fallacy. Now, the law of averages says that if I'm increasing my sample size (in this case, lottery tickets) I'm eventually going to see the expected distribution. Problem is, the expected distribution in the lottery is usually about one to several million. Assuming you live a hundred years and you buy a ticket every week, from birth on, you will have bought about 5200 tickets. That's not even a noteworthy decimal place of chance to actually win something. If you want to have an acceptable chance of the law of averages kicking in, you need to buy about 2700 tickets _every week_ for a hundred years.
are the lottery ticket numbers chosen for you where you're from? here in the UK, we select the numbers so buying 100 tickets does give you a greater chance of winning than buying 99 does.
Wow, I would call it a masterpiece motivational video because unlike other motivational videos that are no doubt moving and inspiring , this one is on a whole other level. It backs up everything with proof and evidence. kudos man!!
I am a Business Mentor who has helped start, launch, or grow over 1,000 businesses, and I have to say that this is the BEST description of the Law of Averages I have seen so far! Great job! I'll be sharing this. Would you mind if I reposted some of the content with links to your page?
Bro if You've got an idea that you think is worth advertising, you crack on with that shit and get it done. Eventually you'll make that first sale and once you hit that, hopefully you'll get the motivation to keep pushing yourself and your business further!
Justin Watson Yeah this is a weird video. Basically letting people with bad resumes and interview skills off the hook for their failures because hey, those must all be hard nose customers! But ignoring the fact that hey, maybe you just need to improve yourself first.
Ombro there's nothing wrong with staying motivated and being hopeful. it was never said in the video that people with bad resumes should get every job. he's saying that if you go to enough job interviews, one will be the job that is perfect for you because it uses the set of skills that you specifically have, and maybe the other jobs you applied for were not perfectly using your potential.
Yea... something he left out is that if you're "good" then it'd be about 1/10. So the goal is to be as "good" as possible to boost those numbers up, in addition to the actual numbers of exposure themselves. That's why "Maintaining the positive attitude" is important, so to speak. However, if you're shitty, then... I mean, a broken clock is right at least twice a day, but that's pretty much the best case scenario.
I always come back here whenever I'm feeling down and like giving up. It keeps me motivated to go on... The more times we take action, we get closer to our goal. Thank you for this video. It works everytime ❤
You know it's so ironic because I actually figured out this concept by intuition one day when I was doing minor sales over at my first job. I was selling the item of the month and as soon as I got my first two I wouldn't care at all about The hundred rejections I will get afterwards because I knew in my heart that the next sale could be the next possible prospect
This video was very cute but as an AP stat student had me cringing so unbelievably hard. The law of averages is not statistically true at all. I believe the law he was in fact trying to reference was the law of large numbers.
Everybody makes mistakes..... Anyone interested should do much more research themselves anyway. I didn't take this as a "This is how it is" video but, rather, as an intro to a basic concept!! This is actually a very complex concept and a short video is only gonna be an intro so I didn't elect perfection. I guess my expectations made this ok to me because I had NO problem with it overall
For people who mention gambling, the law of average is still true, except to possibility of wining it's like 1 in 10mil. Basically games of chance are for suckers.
Great video. Wish I had seen this five years ago when our band's first album didn't do well. We didn't really push it, but we were still pretty discouraged by that experience. I've been thinking lately of getting back into my own songwriting and recording though, so this is a nice extra push if the first few song releases don't go so well.
Been working as a door to door salesman signing people up for FREE windshields. It's been 2 weeks on my own, now on my 3rd, and I haven't made a dime. Help me. Please.
Stupid...if you don't success many times, just STOP, open your mind and change the playground. There are many others games that suites you better, don't waste your time trying wrong game.
Yes, in the sense that if you have 99 rejections in a day, success on one last knock is still going to be 1/100... but the point is statistically you would expect one success a day if you knock on 100 doors so persistence is key
Callum Dempsey EXACTLY! It is a complete misunderstanding of statistics. I would even argue it could be harmful to apply it in some cases bc it can blind you to underlying factors that are making you fail. While perseverance is a good thing in gral, this approach is wrong and horrible advice.
I don't know if this is the law of averages but from my experience, this is called Never Giving Up. Maybe I was unknowingly following the law of averages all along.
What's ironic is that apartment complex example isn't the law of averages, it's the gambler's fallacy. Once you have been rejected by 95% of the apartment, that doesn't have any impact on the last 5%. If the overall frequency of an easy customer is 1/100, then those last 5% of people are also 1/100 to be easy. You gave an example of the most common misapplication of the law of averages.
Each time you play you have the same chance of winning as the last time. It doesn't go up when you lose... This video just kind of spread misinformation whether it was intended or not.
THIS IS BOGUS! The NON-EXISTANT Law of Averages is something in every statistics textbook (I have one on my shelf and am looking at a paragraph on why this is wrong). The probability of an event does not increase if the opposite event occurs over the past few events. This is not just scientifically incorrect, it is mathematically erroneous!
Except this is total BS and represents a complete misunderstanding of statistics. The probability of a result does not change no matter how many times you observe it.
I know, right? I was thinking the excact same thing. I guess people just want some motivation to keep on going, and it is if you remove the mathematically incorrect part.
Nathan Dehnel not sure what you mean but your probability does increase as the more you attempt the better you get thus increasing your probability. Your mind set is obsolete hence you will never taste substantial success. No matter what you reply it won't justify any of your insecurities to this notion; that the more you practise the better you get and the better you get the better the odds. There's two kinds of people in this world I'll let you decipher which one you are :) if I have changed your mind then I wish you the best of luck on your endeavours!
bruh plz read all of this you two are both ignorant. Ken, Of course if you're a salesman over time your odds of getting a sale increases by simply becoming a better salesman but the averages of "easy consumers" (1/100) doesn't change what he meant was mathematically speaking, the probability of an outcome doesn't change. so if you flip a coin and get heads 9 times in a row out of 10 attempts the probability of landing a tails is still 50% it does not increase at all. But eventually with more trials it will even out to 50/50. In the case of the video the probability of an "easy consumer" is 1/100 people. His story was he got 3 "easy consumers" after 300 attempts, that's 1/100 just like he said the percent of "easy consumers" were. It doesn't matter when he got the 3 sales,, it could've been the first 3 houses or any in between the average for "easy consumer" is 1/100 and through the law of averages he got 1/100. And that's only in a perfect scenario... he could have tried 500 houses and got only one sale. But the law of averages is that eventually though more trials the average percent will even out. it might take 100 houses or 1,000 but in the end the average "easy consumer" will still no matter what be average out to around 1/100 or 1%. SO YOUR STATEMENT OF " your probability does increase as the more you attempt" is completely false. SO both you and Nathan Dehnel are wrong. You're wrong for just not understanding statistics and Nathan is wrong because he didn't listen to the video close enough because nowhere in the video did he even say the probability changes...
ELITEshooterR actually I wasn't referring to the statistics, I was actually refuting Nathan's claim on which he believes a result doesn't change no matter how much you observe it. There's this problem with people on the Internet - they always want to be right whereas I was simply explaining a very basic principal and you took it completely out of context. You're neither wrong or right, just simply a wasted effort. At Least my comment provided a positive outlook whereas yours dwells on the obvious and concluded with nothing. I pity such ways of thinking I really do, I feel somewhat sad for you that you had to sit there and explain that to me. Has anyone ever explained 2 - 1 in apples for you? That's what it felt like for me reading your response.
Robert Zuniga This video actually presents multiple fallacies: gambler's fallacy (belief that the more you fail to obtain the desired result, the closer you are to the desired result), sunken cost fallacy (belief that you must continue your task because of all the failures in the past), inductive fallacy (just because those last three out of ~100 were easy, doesn't mean the overall population will have the same structure, because the sample size is too small). It is not "my" reasoning. It is just logic based on statistics and probability.
Chad Aoun I think the idea is just to be persistent. Maybe he's trying to say not to be fearful of failure because it is inevitable. I believe personally that failure inspires winners and defeats losers. If you keep trying you're bound to hit something right ?
Robert Zuniga The idea is fine. Doesn't trump the fact that the video includes all these fallacies. In fact, it kind of undermines his overall message, because committing these fallacies is quite dangerous and risky in real life situations and might cause serious damage.
Saumitra Chakravarty that's what I was thinking. the law of averages is a huge misconception in statistics. getting a streak of bad does not increase the likely hood of getting a good. or vice versa. (in a group of independent events such as the example in the video)
Quand9 This particular example relies on the events being strongly dependant though. Keep in mind that there is a given number of customers in given proportions, every time you knock a red or yellow customer, you indeed increase you conditional probability of knocking a green door
thersten It really does suck, I remember getting rejected about 5 time last year by girls that I dated but who didn't want to be my girlfriend, but now I have one. Now I want to get people to hire me for graphic design jobs.
This video perpetuates a common myth about probability. Independent events do not effect one another. The three people at the end did not have any greater of a chance of being the easy sells than the people at the beginning. If he had just started at the opposite side of the building he could've made the same amount of money in 10 minutes.
magnetik you sound like you're on the right track. somewhere deep down some of us still need validation from the outside though. I thought my self esteem was stronger than it really is.
moral of the story is to never give up in whatever you do in life
Just got tricked it to watching a motivation video. •_•
Improvement Pill You're Awesome!!!! hahaha
what if you will start to hurt other people by being too persistent? sometimes you have to give up, in order to stop people feeling bad, I think.
@@forsetti84 who cares what others think
@@juankroosfrausto7411 well if you have a heart you will care
This video is basically a fancy way of saying PERSISTENCE. Yes, persistence is one of the few keys to success in ANYTHING in life. Failure is always temporary and a win/success is inevitable as long as you keep trying and keep on going.
TennisUmpire TV you could also say success is temporary. There is no steady state of success or failure. It will always go back and forth. Same with anything in life. Nothing lasts forever.
Well, once you get through dozens of not hundreds of encounters of failure, you will start seeing & experiencing success at a MUCH higher rate, %, & frequency. You go from beginner to advanced to a "master" if you keep it whatever it is long enough, and at that point you will undoubtedly experience much less failure than in the start.
That's the beauty of grinding it out initially - a short term investment for a lifetime of benefits at whatever it may be.
TennisUmpire TV true. However, you could grind it out forever and not make much progress if you are not aware of the problem/failure and use the proper strategy to overcome it. You have to learn from your mistakes, not just keep going. Btw, there is no level of beginner to advanced to master. You can leapfrog to greater results by using specific strategies depending on your goal. Look at billionaires. You can't become a billionaire by saving money. No matter how much you save, a billion dollars is unattainable. By building a business with unlimited financial potential or investing in high quality companies like Warren Buffet, you have a higher chance of making a billion. Being intelligent and working hard will help attain better results than just grinding it out.
Yes, of course, I never said that grinding it out is the only key to achieving massive success. And yes, systems help when starting out, and yes you have to learn from mistakes and work hard & smart; but if you give up when it gets hard (esp in the beginning) if things don't work out as planned - you'll never achieve anything great in life. That's the point of this video and the idea of persistence.
You should probably put a disclaimer in the video about how you shouldn't use the law of averages in gambling...
Not true...I've actually won back more than I've spent gambling. I had one week where I won money every single day.....Although..I don't suggest anyone depend on gambling especially if they have an addictive personality then it may become a problem.
Ginsuma sports? racing?
Seki Uce
sports, racing, card games, and the occasional scratch ticket
It still applies - but in this scenario you are spending money for every hand you buy into and will *most likely* end up winning less money than the amount used to buy in.
Seki Uce it only applies to life lol
80% hard,
10% medium,
1% easy,
Now please tell me where the other 9% went? They weren't home?
Watzegik Datzegik i guess that 9% is the most random people's. if you're lucky that 9% will be another easy/medium if not that 9% will be the hard one
hahahaha
I guess someone lost their patience on those.
Watzegik Datzegik It went to the law of averages. lol
His numbers were arbitrary because it's just for the purpose of explaining the general concept!! Averages can change dramatically, depending on the situation but it still holds true. It is important to try to at least somewhat identify the Averages in whatever you're dealing with!!
Just don't tell that to someone with a gambling problem XD
James Last if you keep playing...you are going to win
James Last
too late I lost my house already.
You probably should, if they understood the message correctly, this will actually help them.
Since *on average* you lose money gambling, therefore if they keep gambling, they will lose money as well.
The problem is that in this example your expected value is always positive, meanwhile while you're gambling you have a negative value. So if you're gambling and you keep playing you eventually lose all your money
James Last According to the video's concept, gamblers will gradually lose money cuz those games are designed to lose ppl's money. It's only worth it for salesmen-type situation since they don't have to risk any money to knock on doors
Dangerous message to take in. Some might understand it as : "-Keep hitting your head on the wall, and eventually the wall breaks."
SmartTheDumb That's a good point. How would you suggest I take it?
No idea. I'm a victim of over persistence too. In some cases it worked beautifully, in other cases I got tragic outcomes. But in the end it all ends up on the experience bucket.
SmartTheDumb So basically, just use my intelligence as well as I can to know if it's a proper situation to apply the concept in.
Isn't that why we have it in the first place? The law of average applies to all things, even if we aren't aware of it. Though, it doesn't equate to a positive outcome in all cases.
SmartTheDumb Yes I do believe it's why we have it, but living through this life with so many foolish people being brainwashed by so many things in everyday life, corrupted morals etc. I've lost that natural inclination to be smart and use my brain to learn things. I have to conciously force myself to adopt new concepts because I know they will be beneficial. But the good news is, I'm slowly but surely going back toward that healthy original mindset I had when I was little.
I've unknowingly applied this with my studies. Like when you don't understand a topic, you just read it over and over and over and each time you learn a bit of it. And maybe for the 100th time, you've covered the entire topic.
"The likelihood of certain events evens out if the frequency is increased." Key word: frequency.
Awesome presentation! I learned that very early in my life, when doing sales. I have experienced all types. When you get to the point where u are prepared, you're not afraid of "no" and you're persistent in something worthwhile, you WILL win. The easy people make you smile and help you to keep going.
wow this video once a day will be enough to change my life or anyone's for that matter
Now you have 106k subs. Great
@@ranjitn159 to this day I keep in mind the law of averages!
Amazing. This video talks about something I have applied my whole life without giving it a name. I can basically summarize it to my fellow viewers and explain it in a different way: think about moments you were unlucky in your life (a Poker hand that you lost, the amount of enemies you killed in a videogame without getting a good drop, poor investment returns, trying to score a penalty in a football game with friends only to realize you failed it). The bottom line is: you should be thankful for every BAD LUCK you had in your life, because by definition, since you cannot be unluckier than everybody else, you know that it is LESS LIKELY that you will be unlucky again the next time you shoot a penalty, or the next time you kill a certain NPC or the next time you play a poker hand. People have to have the same amount of luck in their life in the long run (provided you're not the unluckiest person on earth), that's Probability folks. That's why you shouldn't feel bad when you bumped into an AA (Aces) poker hand with your KK, because the next time it's gonna be you who will be holding the AA and win against the Kings (KK). After playing a substantial amount of games, all poker players in the world would have been given the same cards over their lifetime, it's just a matter of playing it long enough (there's a 1/218 chance that you will get AA). That's one way of looking at things, I didn't know this law had a name, now I do. I have been using it for my own benefit. Hope I made myself clear and I wish you all good luck ;)!
It's less law of Averages , It's more law of Probability.
Basically you need to have that never giving up mentality. As always a great video, thank you for sharing :)
With Eddie Howe as coach and an injury free Wilshire XD
This is the exact kind of video I needed today after having a rough streak with dating rejection. Thanks for making it!
This video changed my life, a year ago I was a nobody dreaming to become successful in TH-cam but depressed because it seem impossible. Now I'm the proud owner of the channel Alpha Test with 65k subscribers and growing.. Thank you so much
Ps: this is my secondary channel, mainly for personal use
Why you not upload anymore?
in 3 words : Never give up
After this vid had appeared in my recommendation 5 times, I finally watched it. Then I watched all of your videos. What a nice video 😀
The "easy consumer" normally being an elderly women with Alzheimer's
Joseff Dunn Is this supposed to be joke ?
goal- oriented no just true
nah elders never wanna change the cable providers. almost impossible to do that, and if elders are not in a stable mind. You wont get a commission for that as well.
elders never sign anything. When i did door to door marketing to pay for my youtube equipment, elders wouldnt sign the thing for a free phonecall
+goal- oriented be quiet
This video is exactly what I needed to hear, a long time ago I had this mindset, but lately I forgot I thought like this, thus I couldn't figure out why I was so much happier a long time ago. Thank you for once again reminding me who I was, I deeply appreciate this!
This is not working smarter. This is working harder.
As a Junior Developer I applied to about 200 jobs. I was baffled when after 190~ rejections I got two offers back to back that I easily was accepted for, immediately after having the most horrible interview where the interviewer was extremely rude and just hung up on me (turns out he was looking for a senior dev). Law of averages definitely applies to job hunting, no matter how demoralizing the experience you just have to keep playing the game.
To be honest the law of averages isn't meant to be taken as something that is 100% true and 100% literal. I personally see it as more of a motivation tool to get people to think of what may happen if they keep pushing foward. It's a way of saying that even if you keep failing again and again you may eventually succeed by pure luck. It does apply to a very small handful of scenarios but for the most part it's a way for employers to motivate their employees by getting them to think that the next door or whatever could be the one so stopping would be bad for everyone. In commisioned jobs it's definately going to be forced on you by employers to keep you going by forcing the idea that the next person could be a potential buyer, buyers mean money and that's what the employees want.
sir u amazing 14k to 1.4 Million happy to see you on 14 million soon keep going
The Law of Averages makes you waste valuable time, energies and money. A good salesman, for instance, should study the Pareto's Law instead (the 80/20 rule) and try hard to understand how to apply it in his specific circumstances and how to identify the commonalities of the minority of people with higher chances of saying Yes, and stop harassing the other 80-90% who don't really care
Wow! you are amazing!!
Well that will cause Inaction for sure. Because you're strategically planning everything
Pareto principle assumes binomial distribution wherein each trial is independent of each other
New orleans x. Rio de Janeiro
Ok, but while doing and going foward with the Law of Averages we get learning at the same time about what 20% does the 80% of results.
My parents keep playing the lottery, and never win.
yeah, thats why the law of averages is bullshit
+pianosenzanima That's an existing, structured, carefully manufactured system. You're playing with numbers that have been decided for you; not the same.
I like both answers
My favorite scratchcard game states that you have a 1 in 5 chance of winning, which will decrease as soon as someone else wins. This means that the law of average can not apply in the same sense as in above example. And what if the door salesman had only knocked on 100 doors? Then he would have had no sales. You have to take it into a wider context. The more opportunities involved the higher chance of the law of average to work in some way. If your parents had bought every single scratchcard in a set game say 5 million scratchcards they would have had a 1 in 5 chance of winning on each card and indeed they would have won that too, proofing that the law of average is correct. In terms of door knocking previous salesmen have done this so many times that they have averaged it out to 1 in 100. For selling other items it may be different, maybe 1 in 50 or 1 in 500.
Most state lottery sites tell you exactly how many prizes are left for a particular scratch game....just play the games with the most prizes left.
I aint gonna lie this really hit home for me i cant believe it this whole time i have been letting rejection push me away
Who else watching this because of the Vince staples song?
I feel targeted😹
Bro😂😂😂😂this is me rn
Worked in sales for 4 years. I feel you bro. And yeah, the law of averages applies !
This is not the law of averages. This is the law of large numbers. They are very different. Great motivational video regardless!
Douglas Hsieh, ay, finally someone mentioned it, I was looking for this comment
WOW this is a Awesome video on Law of Averages, I am into sales and I can connect 100% to this video, but it also applies to other fields as well like getting a new job, finding a new girl friend, To all my dear TH-cam viewers, If you can just understand this law and apply in your
field or life I guarantee you success.
You got yourself a new subscriber, I'm 21 years old and feel lost about my future. This video is really well done, I will watch more of your videos that you have. Keep up the good work Phil
I suggest to look at corey wayne channel he will help to find your purpose
Irving Flores same 21 and well most 20's are like this lolz
So true and once you learn how to be more efficient and learn what increases your success you will gain more results.
This has the law of average contained within it, but the maker of this video has a lot to learn about the law of averages. The application proposed here leads to a dangerous fallacy in execution. This occurs when a player uses the law of averages to conclude that because a certain outcome has transpired for a certain amount of executions, that the likelihood of opposing outcomes in the future increases. This is simply not the case and is known as the gambler's fallacy.
Study randomness, law of averages, and gambler's fallacy.
💭💭💭
It's not a gambler's fallacy in my und er standing since you don't approach the same wo man/knock at the same door twice.
You've got this a bit wrong. If I'm planning on buying a lottery ticket the next 100 times my chance of winning is far higher than if I only plan on buying the next 10 times.
However, if I bought 99 tickets and didn't win anything my chance of winning now is _exactly_ the same as if I initially decided to only buy a single ticket. That's the sunken cost fallacy.
Now, the law of averages says that if I'm increasing my sample size (in this case, lottery tickets) I'm eventually going to see the expected distribution. Problem is, the expected distribution in the lottery is usually about one to several million. Assuming you live a hundred years and you buy a ticket every week, from birth on, you will have bought about 5200 tickets. That's not even a noteworthy decimal place of chance to actually win something. If you want to have an acceptable chance of the law of averages kicking in, you need to buy about 2700 tickets _every week_ for a hundred years.
@ThoObe But you have to assume the events of approaching different customers are independent.
are the lottery ticket numbers chosen for you where you're from? here in the UK, we select the numbers so buying 100 tickets does give you a greater chance of winning than buying 99 does.
Video starts at 3:23. You're welcome.
David Razberry thanks, saved me 3 minutes. Now I can get back to studying👌
This comment should be always on top of the rest. Thank you.
David Razberry thanks
David Razberry thanks. 90 percent of video is bullshit
Wow, I would call it a masterpiece motivational video because unlike other motivational videos that are no doubt moving and inspiring , this one is on a whole other level. It backs up everything with proof and evidence. kudos man!!
I am a Business Mentor who has helped start, launch, or grow over 1,000 businesses, and I have to say that this is the BEST description of the Law of Averages I have seen so far! Great job! I'll be sharing this. Would you mind if I reposted some of the content with links to your page?
this just motivated me to keep advertising my Business to get customers,haven't had any so far and its discouraging
Bro if You've got an idea that you think is worth advertising, you crack on with that shit and get it done. Eventually you'll make that first sale and once you hit that, hopefully you'll get the motivation to keep pushing yourself and your business further!
I started my sale job this week and was reminded of this video. Today is my 1st out on the field to try to make a sale
Thanks Vince Staples!
In short: "JUST KEEP TRYING and NEVER QUIT Time will Come"
keep trying and you succeed to some degree, soooo the law of obvious...
Justin Watson Yeah this is a weird video.
Basically letting people with bad resumes and interview skills off the hook for their failures because hey, those must all be hard nose customers!
But ignoring the fact that hey, maybe you just need to improve yourself first.
Ombro there's nothing wrong with staying motivated and being hopeful. it was never said in the video that people with bad resumes should get every job. he's saying that if you go to enough job interviews, one will be the job that is perfect for you because it uses the set of skills that you specifically have, and maybe the other jobs you applied for were not perfectly using your potential.
Yea... something he left out is that if you're "good" then it'd be about 1/10. So the goal is to be as "good" as possible to boost those numbers up, in addition to the actual numbers of exposure themselves. That's why "Maintaining the positive attitude" is important, so to speak. However, if you're shitty, then... I mean, a broken clock is right at least twice a day, but that's pretty much the best case scenario.
I always come back here whenever I'm feeling down and like giving up. It keeps me motivated to go on... The more times we take action, we get closer to our goal. Thank you for this video. It works everytime ❤
Great video! I've never looked at it from that perspective!
Was machst du denn hier lel
Das Video schauen? ^^
D4rky осропрршмнргозог8рпшк5опщр8пг45ппкцййцукехячсмитбю бяФвапрородлжэждхзщшгенеууккыццккуцц1234556780099878764532з1щоеопаопроппроооримпммммрррроллоэ
D4rky How do you get a checkmark on your name?
D4rky it’s so interesting. You’re supposed to get rejected
Absolutely priceless
Publishing my novels soon.
congratz my indian bro
the complex way to explain "never give up"
awesome
I love how you explain things. So straight forward and anecdotal. Really easy to follow
Wheel of fortune bell
Last call 4 alcohol and
Hindquarters call
Love this too
great video
this video made me feel better about life
You know it's so ironic because I actually figured out this concept by intuition one day when I was doing minor sales over at my first job. I was selling the item of the month and as soon as I got my first two I wouldn't care at all about The hundred rejections I will get afterwards because I knew in my heart that the next sale could be the next possible prospect
I seriously needed this.
😳 Wow...mind blowing 🤯
This video was very cute but as an AP stat student had me cringing so unbelievably hard. The law of averages is not statistically true at all. I believe the law he was in fact trying to reference was the law of large numbers.
Improvement Pill Well that's an issue, since you made an entire video about it.
Improvement Pill are u kidding me??? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Everybody makes mistakes..... Anyone interested should do much more research themselves anyway. I didn't take this as a "This is how it is" video but, rather, as an intro to a basic concept!! This is actually a very complex concept and a short video is only gonna be an intro so I didn't elect perfection. I guess my expectations made this ok to me because I had NO problem with it overall
hahahahaha wtf
the moron might want to take this video down and IMPROVE on his idiocy, oh the irony
For people who mention gambling, the law of average is still true, except to possibility of wining it's like 1 in 10mil. Basically games of chance are for suckers.
How about being so good that you don't even need the law of averages, inovating your product, improving yourself as a potential partner, etc..
You mean the law of above-averages?
Sorta like what the big tech companies did.
Seems to me to arrive to that position you had to do a lot of the law of averages!
What an excellent work!
This isn't the law of averages, this is the gambler's fallacy.
Doesn't work with roulette tho
DOES NOT WORK WITH GAMBLING. IF YOU DON'T LIKE BEING BROKE, DON'T TRY IT.
You're telling me to work harder but in reality what Makes you successful is working smarter.
"- Switch me ! Switch me ! Switch me !
- No ! Switch me first !"
😂😂 had me dying
Great video by the way !
It's a book. Why are you portraying yourself as the character in the 10x rule.
I heard about this law in "Think and Grow Rich" book and I was always curious about but you answered all my qs today tysm
How's Canada?
Lavish Krish it’s really inspiring
LOTTO IM COMIN FOR YA
Great video. Wish I had seen this five years ago when our band's first album didn't do well. We didn't really push it, but we were still pretty discouraged by that experience. I've been thinking lately of getting back into my own songwriting and recording though, so this is a nice extra push if the first few song releases don't go so well.
Been working as a door to door salesman signing people up for FREE windshields. It's been 2 weeks on my own, now on my 3rd, and I haven't made a dime. Help me. Please.
take everything with a pinch of salt and depending your situation please.
I know this
Great animation style!
Stupid...if you don't success many times, just STOP, open your mind and change the playground. There are many others games that suites you better, don't waste your time trying wrong game.
The law of averages doesn't exist, it's the gambler's fallacy.
Yes, in the sense that if you have 99 rejections in a day, success on one last knock is still going to be 1/100... but the point is statistically you would expect one success a day if you knock on 100 doors so persistence is key
I know I just thought someone should mention the connection with gambler's fallacy
you could say something like dont confuse this with gamblers fallacy. instead of saying this is gamblers fallacy.
Callum Dempsey EXACTLY! It is a complete misunderstanding of statistics. I would even argue it could be harmful to apply it in some cases bc it can blind you to underlying factors that are making you fail. While perseverance is a good thing in gral, this approach is wrong and horrible advice.
I guess it’s the same principle with gambling
this applies a lot to pick up
Jacob Kuba yes and girls
Jacob Kuba rooshv?
I don't know if this is the law of averages but from my experience, this is called Never Giving Up. Maybe I was unknowingly following the law of averages all along.
What's ironic is that apartment complex example isn't the law of averages, it's the gambler's fallacy. Once you have been rejected by 95% of the apartment, that doesn't have any impact on the last 5%. If the overall frequency of an easy customer is 1/100, then those last 5% of people are also 1/100 to be easy. You gave an example of the most common misapplication of the law of averages.
Awesome video. This is one of my favorite videos on your channel. Great job!
watches video...
grabs money and heads to the nearest casino.
law of averages bro
Great video I needed to see this
Same thing with gambling
Mi, Amor if you keep playing...you are going to win
Each time you play you have the same chance of winning as the last time. It doesn't go up when you lose... This video just kind of spread misinformation whether it was intended or not.
THIS IS BOGUS! The NON-EXISTANT Law of Averages is something in every statistics textbook (I have one on my shelf and am looking at a paragraph on why this is wrong). The probability of an event does not increase if the opposite event occurs over the past few events. This is not just scientifically incorrect, it is mathematically erroneous!
I can't think of anything that would teach me this concept better than RNG in video games :D
Pettersony Strawman RNG in skill based games
Well you know what they say.. fake it till you make it
Except this is total BS and represents a complete misunderstanding of statistics. The probability of a result does not change no matter how many times you observe it.
I know, right? I was thinking the excact same thing. I guess people just want some motivation to keep on going, and it is if you remove the mathematically incorrect part.
I think the point of the video was to tell people to keep trying. You must be in a math major.
Nathan Dehnel not sure what you mean but your probability does increase as the more you attempt the better you get thus increasing your probability. Your mind set is obsolete hence you will never taste substantial success. No matter what you reply it won't justify any of your insecurities to this notion; that the more you practise the better you get and the better you get the better the odds. There's two kinds of people in this world I'll let you decipher which one you are :) if I have changed your mind then I wish you the best of luck on your endeavours!
bruh plz read all of this you two are both ignorant. Ken, Of course if you're a salesman over time your odds of getting a sale increases by simply becoming a better salesman but the averages of "easy consumers" (1/100) doesn't change what he meant was mathematically speaking, the probability of an outcome doesn't change. so if you flip a coin and get heads 9 times in a row out of 10 attempts the probability of landing a tails is still 50% it does not increase at all. But eventually with more trials it will even out to 50/50. In the case of the video the probability of an "easy consumer" is 1/100 people. His story was he got 3 "easy consumers" after 300 attempts, that's 1/100 just like he said the percent of "easy consumers" were. It doesn't matter when he got the 3 sales,, it could've been the first 3 houses or any in between the average for "easy consumer" is 1/100 and through the law of averages he got 1/100. And that's only in a perfect scenario... he could have tried 500 houses and got only one sale. But the law of averages is that eventually though more trials the average percent will even out. it might take 100 houses or 1,000 but in the end the average "easy consumer" will still no matter what be average out to around 1/100 or 1%. SO YOUR STATEMENT OF " your probability does increase as the more you attempt" is completely false. SO both you and Nathan Dehnel are wrong. You're wrong for just not understanding statistics and Nathan is wrong because he didn't listen to the video close enough because nowhere in the video did he even say the probability changes...
ELITEshooterR actually I wasn't referring to the statistics, I was actually refuting Nathan's claim on which he believes a result doesn't change no matter how much you observe it. There's this problem with people on the Internet - they always want to be right whereas I was simply explaining a very basic principal and you took it completely out of context. You're neither wrong or right, just simply a wasted effort. At Least my comment provided a positive outlook whereas yours dwells on the obvious and concluded with nothing. I pity such ways of thinking I really do, I feel somewhat sad for you that you had to sit there and explain that to me. Has anyone ever explained 2 - 1 in apples for you? That's what it felt like for me reading your response.
Im 19 and make roughly £60k per year doing door to door sales. Not for everyone but if its for you, theres no limit on the amount of money u can make.
damn... so motivational
The law of averages guarantees that any given desired outcome is inevitable. It does not guarantee the outcome will happen to you, specifically.
What about the 9/100 left?
I guess they weren't home
What a video 👊
That's totally not what the law of averages means.
lmgtfy.com/?q=law+of+averages
Thank you for this. Love from Finland
My family has been buying the lottery for 5 generations.. We're still broke :D
interesting, so the more you fail (and learn) the closer you'll succeed. Then you really have nothing to fear, but not taking action in most cases
That is a fallacy!
Chad Aoun well if in fact it is a fallacy... Explain your reasoning behind your thought
Robert Zuniga This video actually presents multiple fallacies: gambler's fallacy (belief that the more you fail to obtain the desired result, the closer you are to the desired result), sunken cost fallacy (belief that you must continue your task because of all the failures in the past), inductive fallacy (just because those last three out of ~100 were easy, doesn't mean the overall population will have the same structure, because the sample size is too small). It is not "my" reasoning. It is just logic based on statistics and probability.
Chad Aoun I think the idea is just to be persistent. Maybe he's trying to say not to be fearful of failure because it is inevitable. I believe personally that failure inspires winners and defeats losers. If you keep trying you're bound to hit something right ?
Robert Zuniga The idea is fine. Doesn't trump the fact that the video includes all these fallacies. In fact, it kind of undermines his overall message, because committing these fallacies is quite dangerous and risky in real life situations and might cause serious damage.
Chad Aoun Well I think is what he said is used properly and with a bit of common sense you should be fine.
Overwhelmed with all these vids ugh!
What is your position on the Gambler's Fallacy? Does it not contradict your so-called Law of Averages?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
It is, this man does not have a clue how independent random events work.
Saumitra Chakravarty that's what I was thinking. the law of averages is a huge misconception in statistics. getting a streak of bad does not increase the likely hood of getting a good. or vice versa. (in a group of independent events such as the example in the video)
Quand9 This particular example relies on the events being strongly dependant though. Keep in mind that there is a given number of customers in given proportions, every time you knock a red or yellow customer, you indeed increase you conditional probability of knocking a green door
Gustavo De La Rosa That's the gambler's fallacy.
Jase Pellerin in order to be the gamblers fallacy the events have to qualify as independent. :)
I love your content so much.
Awesome
The reason the last 3 bought might be because you had just practiced for a long time in the hole complex
I already knew this but dammit I can't stand rejection. :-(
thersten It really does suck, I remember getting rejected about 5 time last year by girls that I dated but who didn't want to be my girlfriend, but now I have one. Now I want to get people to hire me for graphic design jobs.
You will succeed !
This video perpetuates a common myth about probability. Independent events do not effect one another. The three people at the end did not have any greater of a chance of being the easy sells than the people at the beginning. If he had just started at the opposite side of the building he could've made the same amount of money in 10 minutes.
Juvet Jaurès Ndé Thank you ! Im starting to take massive action.
magnetik you sound like you're on the right track. somewhere deep down some of us still need validation from the outside though. I thought my self esteem was stronger than it really is.
Why have I seen this exact video verbatim on multiple different youtube channels and websites, yet nobody give credit?