The 'macro trades of the century': A 'bigger decline' is coming for stocks - Tavi Costa
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ก.ค. 2024
- Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, discusses his outlook on the macroeconomic landscape, mining stocks, and gold with David Lin, Anchor for Kitco News.
Follow David Lin on Twitter: @davidlin_TV ( / davidlin_tv )
Follow Kitco News on Twitter: @KitcoNewsNOW ( / kitconewsnow )
Follow Tavi Costa on Twitter: @TaviCosta ( / tavicosta )
0:00 - Crescat Capital performance
3:50 - Outperforming with mining stocks
6:35 - Long/short strategy
11:20 - Sources of inflation
13:42 - Policies to fight inflation
18:00 - Macro imbalances
19:11 - Stock market outlook
21:30 - Consumer sentiment
22:24 - Asset allocation
24:27 - Tech stocks
25:44 - Equity valuations
27:50 - Mining stocks
#stocks #economy #investing
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The entire comment section are filled of these scammers / bots/ criminals promoting scam , we need a firing squad to catch these scammers and line them up in front of a brick wall…..
TAVI IS A REAL ONE!!!!
More Tavi on Kitco pls. He appears to like knowledge for knowledge's sake first. Then puts that to work in a portfolio. Great combo.
Excellent interview between two knowledgeable and passionate individuals 👍🏾
One of your smartest guests.
Agree, sharp mind. Want to know more about his fund management.
One of your best guest ever. He really gets it. Thanks !
6:40 long commodities, short equities 8:20 energy 13:15 corp earnings very bearish; Fed looking at lagging indicator 14:20 supply driven inflation
Thanks I was feeling impatient.
😁
Great interview!
Totally informative and enjoyable. Bring him back.
Tavi is a very sharp guy. Thanks for this enlightening interview!
Tavi Costa - Smart guy with a very broad look on the market.
Thanks for your insights.
And thank you David for your great questions.
The scams just never stop, I feel sorry for the human race sometimes...
DuewTyoob seems to be very good in banning/shadowbanning people with the “wrong” political opinion, but they seem to deliberately allow the scammers to operate here with impunity.
I'm impressed with Mr Costa's wide knowledge
Great interview. Tavi is very intelligent and gets it. Please have him back.
Great interview David! Tavi really knows his business and macro.
David all sassy with his hair this week, you ain't no Michelle Makori but you got heart!
😮😂
😂 amazing comment
Brilliant work, Tavi has great perspective. Excellent interview David!
Great interview! Dude knows his stuff.
Wow this was a wealth of information! Great guest!
Thank you Tavi for these great insights.
Good Job Tavi!
Plz get rid of the Asian curl
Tavi is the bomb 💣
@27:13 why does the graph show S&P earnings going up 35% between 2023-2025?, while the talk is about how we're not seeing earnings drop yet?
Always following the streams. Be creative
Man o live battle for the perfect hair!😆
Awesome
Love your channel
Wow this guy is smart, impressive.
That gentleman was excellent..
Best utility so far in whole crypto space
around 5:00 min mark...I think you misunderstand Fama's position. I've never heard him say "markets are perfectly efficient at all times".
DAVID: ask Gareth -> where is gold at the time DXY is at 120? Thanks
19:27 that is NOT the S&P500 - it's the gold price in USD! 😂😂
That one loose strand...
Total accident….
Very bright guy. Broad view of things
US GDP GROWTH FOR 3RD Q WILL BE (-) GROWTH AGAIN AFTER (-)1ST Q + (-)2ND Q ---------- > Latest estimate: 0.3 percent - September 20, 2022 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.3 percent on September 20, down from 0.5 percent on September 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter residential investment growth decreased from -20.8 percent to -24.5 percent.
What's a discovery hole?
TODAY BOE WILL HIKE 75BP BUT IT IS TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO SMALL TO DEAL WITH ITS UK STAGFLATION HOWEVER THERE WILL BE MORE AND MORE MONEY PRINTING GOING ON AND ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Is the lack of youth an opportunity within the space, or a sign that the future doesn’t see a value an asset that is “shiny”, is limited in supply, has a lot of history, but ultimately is dumbfounding in the limitations of its utility, including the ability to protect it. The value of gold is in consensus…. Is that consensus fading as the world converges on alternative stores of value? (I.E. Bitcoin, still a long road to go, but the mechanics are there and the seem to be superior for a few-globalized world).
There are two types of items that can skew earnings and cause GAAP earnings to be misleading to investors.
Non-Recurring Items: These are non-core sources of income and expenses that are not expected to continue into the foreseeable future (e.g. restructuring charges, one-time write-downs / write-offs, gains on sales).
Non-Cash Items: These refer to items that are related to accrual accounting concepts, such as depreciation and amortization (D&A), as well as stock-based compensation, where no real cash outflow has taken place.
For the average retail investor it is very difficult to distinguish true Non-GAAP earnings from official GAAP earnings which makes stock-picking extremely challenging in this bear market. Therefore it is good to get realistic sector breakdowns from Tavi given his outperformance in his funds this year.
dont we need some inflation to lower our dept?
AGAIN NOW THE PIVOT OF WORLD ECONOMY HAS TOTALLY SHIFTED FROM FINANCIAL SYSTEMS ( = INTEREST RATE + CURRENCY) ----------- > TO COMMODITY MARKET THAT IT'S A TRULY BIG TIME TO HAVE GOLD + ENERGY (OIL COAL GAS)!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Wait is that Feds job or goverments around the world?
Tavi is a big ol brain.
Why are financial analysts always so shocked when events do not repeat themselves exactly as they happened in the past!? History does not repeat itself.
Smart guy
Interview from Sept 14? Old news!
As short on the opposite.
Bigger? Gold will go down to 1400?
David it’s all about debt debt debt debt!!
Easier to just buy Bitcoin
They were obviously friends w/ Peloshe or some other swamp creature. wink. wink.
Fast talking Fund manager claims he’s out-performing the competition. You don’t say?
Next 2y loses everything lol
17:20 I don’t think Tavi realised David was joking here.
👍👍🇨🇦
AGAIN AND AGAIN ONLY COMMODITY ESP GOLD + ENERGY (OIL GAS COAL) (+) YEN ARE THE SAFE HAVEN ASSETS!!!!!!!!!!!!:!) < ----------- DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!! 0% EXAGGERATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Fed vs fad. Hefty vs hafty. Ten vs tan. Fix that and you've got as good as full marks mate.
The secret in investment is luck, followed by skill. Millennials are clueless never having seen a down turn like 1980
Making the rich richer, gotta have a quarter mill to even dip your toe in the water with this company.
NOW WHO DENIES THE FACT THAT AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES SINCE DEC OF 2021 THAT S&P 500 WILL BE DOWN TO THE LEVEL OF 3150- 3350!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ------------ SEE?! IT IS 0% EXAGGERATION!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Interesting interview, he’s basically repeating the Peter Schiff narrative, but he’s doing it in a much more structured and modest manner and with a 150% return he seems to be a lot more successful. P.s. David suddenly looks totally bloated. Hope he didn’t get a clot/booster jab to appease turd^eau…
This guy contradicting himself quite a bit here. He complained about the fed rate hike while harping on consumer discretionary spending being squeezed. It’s like saying: bitter sweet in the same sentence
He is merely *pointing out* the contradictions and I think you’re confusing this with his *own* standpoints.
ℹ️ this fund was just ACCIDENTALLY 🍀 one of „the best@! …there are always funds that are over or below the medium results of investment funds 🤷🏻
Build Back Better writ large.
Notice how all those Biden / Harris bumper stickers
can't be found anywhere anymore...
If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you, prevent inflation from eroding your savings, build generational wealth, and cultivate good habits and financial knowledge, you must be in the market.
Who is talking and laughing in the background??? Very distracting. I enjoy the content but I expect better from you all.
Can`t watch hand wavers, Stop it FFS. It is so fake.