@@SunglassSister just the gain in book value ... still need to look at the cash on cash return at the end ... you cannot see the value of warrent buffet in a bullish market but a bearish market .. why ?
地段好坏太重要了 --- yes always yesterday today and tomorrow ... limited supply in a hot market == crazy la ... the investment cycle is 15 to 30 years ... good location with limited choice === extra high price and may not fit for your need ... good location with decent choice === ok price but high chance to fit for your need 而且也没说清楚朋友卖的买的是自住还是投资房？ 4200 sq ft only a fool will use it as a rental , sister sand 's friend should be a smart person at least same group of peope primary residence only need two years .. 20% capatian gain ... without 100% or close to a 100% , the agent cannot talk her friend to sell it ... 10% of the orignal investment as an agent fee 股票市场波谲云诡 do you know the reason for that ? 短期房地产还是要大涨的 what is the reason for that ? even it is , then 3 years later ? 2-3 年以后即使掉了5-10% 也是现在涨了10-15% 上去那怎么办？ the latter is the worst scenario ... the worse of teh worst scenario , you buy a house yuo do not like and have some issue later ... half alive and half lying .... the most painful thing in the world ... when you fight with others who are irrational , then the best way is to walk away ... the outcome is predictable ... even you win, you pay much more premium than what you should pay ... it is a game of risk and reward , when the ratio is not justified , let the irrational people make the money la .... like sister sand 's friend , if he or she is smart , he may be make 8 to 10% return per year la what if he make 50% ? what if ... what if my parent leave me a billion dollar .... dreaming and based on the air ! listen .... the air tells me the risk to reward level is not favourable .... calm down ....
blind points 1. refinance 30 years fixed 5 years later, you need to use 25 years fixed if you do an apple to apple comparison , 5 years mortgage is 183K , 60k for princpal ( guess) 123k interest ... plus property tax and insurance is 2.8K per month , yes you can use it as rent but the opportunity cost of 160K down oppportunity cost has not calculated , 5 years 8% per year is 230K 5 year later add $1170 to the rent ie 4K fo rent ... is it rational 4k for renting the house priced at 800K you can give me an answer also based on your income 2. your suggestion work perfect fine when the price is at the low position and the mortgage rate is at high position .... where are we now ? the price is at the peak and the interest rate just 5% now ( not 4%) and 2% is irrational , the lowest in history is 2.67% average APR ...2% awh where will this come from ? interest rate is a cycle from a base line but the base line can be shift up and down but there is no space to shift down but up ....2% haha if we have a preset answer to a question and try to find some scenario to make it look irational ... we can cheat ourselves ... but the risk to reward level is not justified ...
case study ... something new awesome.. i made an assumption your friend is mortgage free and it is his or her primary resiudence ... rental 4200sq ft is not smart ... 950K.... 5% agent fee , the actual in procket is 902.5K, the agent was a happy one .. i guess the home improvement was 40K to 100K , your friend sounds have a " itchy body " when he or she has a cash ... the actual in pocket down another 50k t0100K .. ao we have the 800k to 850K ... buy or sell period at least 1 year period ... 12 months rent ... i guess 3K*12 =36K , moving fee and storage fee : 8K ... If the picture in your video is the new house, no garage driveway, the lot is small possible 4000 to 6000 sq ft ... no fence .. itchy body will use another 30k to 40K to upgrade ... After all those and inconvenience , your will may be break even or have some loss but the living standard get worse 4200 6 bedrrom 3.5 bath 9900 sq ft lot garage fenced yard and nice mature plants to 2700 4 bedroom 2.5batrh 4000 to 6000 yard no garage no driveway holly cow How much is a itch y body cost him or her ? Biggest loser : your friedn winner the property developer biggest winner : the property agent : 2.5% +2.5% for two deals left and rigth awh do not ask your friend to watch this program ... people live in a dream is happier !
Thanks for your input. The 2600 house build in 1995, but the picture is wrong. 2 garages and a driveway, nice views, good location. I agree that the biggest winner is the property agent.
@@SunglassSister that sounds right.. But the downgrade from 4200 to 2600 sq ft.. The feeling of living standard is huge differenr Without much advantage... Still.. Not too good except they retire but do not have to buy right the way especially cash deal.. But once you have a preference of location or certain type of requirement at a limited supply market is big difffernt.. Good view and good location are not for retirees because the property tax part is not much cheaper Strawberries at USA is $1.95 /lbs but in Hong Kong is $19.5/lbs .. Yes. The one in Hong Kong may taste better but with $20 you. Can find two lbs of BBQ pork there, the satisfaction is bigger.. You mentioned the psychology condition for the buyer is right... You will miss something.. But buy or sell still need to have the plan b what is the opportunity cost... And the handling charge.. The location a b and c are location.. We do not need to be just pick location a... View of the river and the Mt are good view we do not have to pick river and the flooding insurance is considered... And we only buy the best at the location a b or c.. During a crazy market, the last requirements will not easily to fulfil or pay much higher premium
@@SunglassSister just optimize the condition for long run, at the end you can achieve most of your target not one not two but most ... Just a delay of satisfaction! Location location location and a million dollar view.. Each house is unique..plus two must buy, then we have to buy la.. Must to mean no negotiation power.. Then we can move some bullets from the other place to do the "must" .
🙏🙏 鏡姐分享💐💐 您辛苦了💦💦 請放鬆 ♨️ ⛱️ 🍵☕️
墨鏡姊不要介意一些負面的説法，而且妳也是有數據説明，加油。
拜金姊妹，走过本世紀金融災，真是歷經滄桑，發善心濟世。
墨镜姐说的对于投资房是对的。对于自住房，关键在于卖掉房和升级房直接的差价
等三年再买的话，这三年租金就小10万刀了吧；然而房价只降5-15%，感觉还是买房划算呢
谢谢警告⚠️非常有道理！完全同意你的分析，高人！
谢谢墨镜姐 ! 用心的分析 !
謝謝分享！最喜歡看墨鏡姐分享房地產了，未看完先留言打氣一下，不要在意負面留言
刚需的就不要考虑房价跌不跌了，该买还得买，总比付租金好，还有投资有全现金的遇到出租回报率好的房子该买还得买，也不要考虑房价跌不跌了。房价跌你不卖房子跟你没什么关系，房价涨你不卖也跟你没什么关系。
謝謝你 ，我住捷克的房屋市場的曲線跟利率居然跟美國相似 ，所以聽你的建議也可以套用在這裡 ，目前我們雖然很想換大一點的房子 ，可是市價讓我們望屋興歎 ！
我居然還有捷克的觀眾。謝謝你的分享。
高利率的峰值在哪年？什么时候利率能跌回去年？
如果卖了自住房 不在180 天内买回大概相等价值的房子 ， 那么房子升值的钱 要拿去交税 ，然后你再等（房价跌）或者暂时不买 你都是亏 最大的赢家是政府
自住房夫妻有50萬的抵稅額。
@@SunglassSister 必须住满2年才能使用这个免税额
支持墨鏡姊 = )
下跌是會的 各項建設材料與人工漲 大概新房要如何便宜 也不可能
謝謝分享👍
Tampa 這也差不多, 過去一年漲$75K 左右, 我沒買的房 現在多半漲了$150K. 真的讓我大嘆虧大了!!
兩年前，很多人的確不敢買啊
@@SunglassSister 也沒啥理由, 多的是謠言.
@@SunglassSister just the gain in book value ... still need to look at the cash on cash return at the end ... you cannot see the value of warrent buffet in a bullish market but a bearish market .. why ?
上海方舱，卫生间没人清扫，满地恶臭，没法洗澡，缺医护人员，很多没隔间几千人挤在一起，加速病毒人传人，这不是方舱医院，这是人民公社，吃饭靠抢，抢不到就饿着。
@@钱赵乡 it seems you have been there ? did you win in the fight for the food ? you are alive i think you are the winner
用心的分析
地产经纪人主动来找我聊天,什么意思呢?就是生意不好了嘛。
您有打算趁下跌前，出售部份房產嗎？
墨镜姐说的对啊，我也不相信房价会持续上涨，现在的房价已经超出了本身的价值，没有一栋房子不是overpay才能拿到。我想随着美联储的调整
感謝細心製作與分享， 超級有用的！！！！👍👍👍🙏🙏🙏
口口声声说自己以事实为依据，确忽视最重要的通膨因素，美联储还一度否认过通膨，事实很打脸。如果没有战争因素，房价一定会和通膨保持一致，不是房价涨了，而是货币贬值的缘故。
每期必听
谢谢粒沙姐❤️❤️👍👍💪💪🙏🙏
很棒
贊同，謝謝分享
买住房只要选好地段就没问题，买投资房就应该小心了。
跌的时候好地段一样跌。
谢谢你
姐姐摘了墨镜🕶️一定也好看！
好消息！
感谢美女的辛苦分享🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
反正没亏。跟地理位置也有些关系。卖得高，买得也高。但是小户型好出租，还套出了20万溢价。如果以后再买一套，未来再赶上大涨就又赚大了。
好听爱听收益🙏墨镜姐
醍醐灌顶、字字珠玑
就是哦比如现在越来越慢了，今年增长10%，明年增长5%，后年调整10-15%打回原形。但是利率又是6%以上，还是贵了。还要白白多付了两年暴涨的房租。结论：还是buy now, fomo
房价的上涨还是下跌是供求关系决定的。我们所在城市不停的有外州的人由于工作搬过来，房子供不应求，加息对房价上涨的影响不大。
我在想有些地區可能不會跌價而是持平
我感觉我身边的人信心指数不高呢 网上不是也是一波倒说房价要跌吗
墨镜姐的朋友如果是投资，我感觉没有错！就是套了一部分现金，继续投资，关键这个朋友本身现金就充足。如果，这个朋友是自住，那么就更对了！
她卖的是自住房，买来的房子打算先出租几年。
谢谢你的分享👍
我最近再买房过程中出现问题情况是这样的当初3月份时利息才4点多，房子挂牌大概60万我们+6万=66抢到。4月中估价师也估66万回来但是银行不认同说只有55万但是现在利息索在7.125只有15天。请问如果是你买还是不买好，我现在有一套房子。谢谢各个意见。
7.125的利息？好高啊！你這估價師不是銀行的嗎？買來出租的話，算好現金流再決定吧。
@@SunglassSister 是第三方出来估价问题是现在我们也不想要了定金交2万可以退吗？
@@chunfanglu8011 新房要退很难，二手房的话只要你不remove contingency随时可以退。
@@renee7514 我是买二手房但是经济人说不好退，我说银行都批拒绝信给我了，但是我经济一直说银行有给我机会选择做第二次估价是我们买方不做我们有错
最近發現許多房東都不想租了，想把房子拿去買。這個現象說明什麼？
現在買房不僅選擇性少, 不喜歡, 我看price per sq 都不怎麼樣. 你朋友的2600sq 卻要 $720,000, 那是$276/sq!! 賣的 $950,000, 4200 sq, $226/sq. 雖然是舊房換新屋, 感覺還是貴不少.
她換的還是個舊房子了，96年的房子
@@SunglassSister 我還以為是影片裡的新屋! 96可老了.
@@sugarlien圖片上錯了
想買房的儘管去買, 不用怪誰. 我們當吃瓜群眾看好戲! ^^ 反正我也當過那傻愣, 剛好要買房, 殊不知是最差的時機.
墨镜姐，请问有没有纽约市和长岛这边的的信息，什么时候买房自住比较适合？真的很怕错过了，因为现在租金也涨了。
我不太了解那边的市场，自住房的话，我觉得在目前的情况下，如果你有足够的资金，收入来源也稳定，你又打算长期持有，你又真能找到合适的房子，也不是不能买，不过现在贷款利率已经涨了不少。多花点功夫了解你要买房的地区。地产税这些周边的费用你都需要一并考虑到。把帐算清楚。
僅僅是過了14年，歷史重演，但是不會被記住
Thank you for sharing
谢谢你用心制作的节目👍💐💖最后的小结说的太好了，的确是要等等再看的。
工资，建筑材料等都在涨，房价高也是对的。
但不要選在萬物最貴的時候購入
如果中國大陸都這樣講國語該多好！聽了很親切、舒服！😊
经济大萧条时期，一切都会跌，简单明了的问一句话：你觉的经济怎么样？收入怎么样？
先赞后看
对现在对未来，我都恐惧
Good 👍👍👍
不只買不起，有些國家也可能面臨破產..
tu表忽略了此次房价上涨与货币超发有关
哎 更买不起了
墨鏡姐 想问下有关于房地产的交流群吗？
暂时没有
@@SunglassSister 好的
什麼都沒有，就是有耐心，呵呵。
现在颇有最后一波恐慌购买的情绪，但是南方热门州很多已经和2020比翻了两倍三倍的，就是跌了15%还是超级贵啊。其实新泽西纽约等北方人口流出州现在房价没涨甚至已经跌了10-15%，很多要挂几个月甚至一两年才能卖出去。从众抢热门城市真的不如去买这种了。所有的泡沫终将破灭，只是以怎样的形式不得而知，非热门城市没有经济学区人口流入等支撑的房价跌回原形只是时间问题。热门城市热门区还是要继续看怎样一个供需，不跌也大概率横盘多年。买家恐慌购买fomo涨起来快，恐慌抛售卖家fomo跌起来也是很快的。
房市的地方性很重要，每个地方真的非常不一样。
@@SunglassSister 我觉得你每期视频坚持唱空，多出一些地方专题啊，追踪下法拍房人口流向交易数据经济走向等等，这个播放量就不愁了，阿哈哈哈
@@jack1796 谢谢你的建议，這些redfine這些地产公司常常做的。我也不想成为房地产频道。
南加州都是cash offer的很難買到房 那這邊是不是就不會跌了
只有富人區學房區才是穩的價格，其他沒有地區設施和人口支持都很容易大跌
看起來泡沫才剛開始就升息了 可能不會有08年嚴重
應該不會有08年那麼嚴重，當然還是看地區。
买
那么房价还会涨！
房子不卖 就不会有赚赔一说。 被冲昏头脑买房然后没有后手来度过万一被layoff, 那时肯定赔。然而比如股市套现出来出手50万高于asking price,然后能有现金流或者准备长期持有，他也不会赔
我觉的你的朋友房子一买一卖是亏了。房子变得小了。地产税变高了。
直接砸了旧币（作废），出新币！出大币！百亿，千亿，万亿！学委内瑞拉。。。。。。😭😭😭😭😭
谢谢分析很用心！ 可惜不够有全盘考虑，地段好坏太重要了，而且也没说清楚朋友卖的买的是自住还是投资房？ 是要享受税收优惠 还是1031转换？ 现在好区的库存极少，股票市场波谲云诡，短期房地产还是要大涨的。2-3 年以后即使掉了5-10% 也是现在涨了10-15% 上去那怎么办？ 还损失了2-3年的租金要付给房东呢。
一看Jessica就是房产经纪人
地段好坏太重要了 --- yes always yesterday today and tomorrow ... limited supply in a hot market == crazy la ... the investment cycle is 15 to 30 years ... good location with limited choice === extra high price and may not fit for your need ... good location with decent choice === ok price but high chance to fit for your need
而且也没说清楚朋友卖的买的是自住还是投资房？ 4200 sq ft only a fool will use it as a rental , sister sand 's friend should be a smart person at least same group of peope
primary residence only need two years .. 20% capatian gain ... without 100% or close to a 100% , the agent cannot talk her friend to sell it ... 10% of the orignal investment as an agent fee
股票市场波谲云诡 do you know the reason for that ?
短期房地产还是要大涨的 what is the reason for that ? even it is , then 3 years later ?
2-3 年以后即使掉了5-10% 也是现在涨了10-15% 上去那怎么办？ the latter is the worst scenario ... the worse of teh worst scenario , you buy a house yuo do not like and have some issue later ... half alive and half lying .... the most painful thing in the world ...
when you fight with others who are irrational , then the best way is to walk away ... the outcome is predictable ... even you win, you pay much more premium than what you should pay ...
it is a game of risk and reward , when the ratio is not justified , let the irrational people make the money la ....
like sister sand 's friend , if he or she is smart , he may be make 8 to 10% return per year la what if he make 50% ? what if ... what if my parent leave me a billion dollar .... dreaming and based on the air ! listen .... the air tells me the risk to reward level is not favourable .... calm down ....
关键美国房价和收入比起来负担不算很重啊，对比中国哈😄
干投行的吧，有专业水准/
👍👍👍❤️❤️❤️
肯定是亏了
因为她是卖了在买。换买了在卖就多了10万
手续费
新区房7-8月交房，学分8-9，现在溢价3万，交了几千块订金，但是没有锁定利息。现在到底还买不买？应该不应该提前90天锁息？广求大神们的高见
沒有在低息时锁定利息是个问题，美联储5月可能会加息0.5，到时后贷款利息还会涨。
你还是建好后卖了
@@dehuifang 谢谢回复但70万的房即使已升了4万，卖掉的经纪费手续费都用掉这钱了，还操这个心干嘛
自住就买吧，别想太多
自住應該買
房价冲上去是现代经济游戏的产物 除非有变革性的事件发生 比如建房成本大幅度下降 否则看不到房价大跌的机会 不为别的 政府的地税也不会便宜了你 税税税 万万税 我觉得美国最厉害最高智商的法就是税法 缜密算计到骨头缝里 至少在美国 买很多套房在手里的做法 真是没有任何吸引力 一人两套最多了 要不然就是在给政府交钱
感觉就跟中国一样，总认为会跌 最后一直涨
@@Jimmy-vb6dt 房价从来不以我们的认为而涨跌 这是国内学到的
我覺得你的朋友如果那72萬的新房是買了出租那還不算虧😭
我比较敏感，2年前就嚷着可能有跌的可能了。反正最后赔和赚都是每个人自己的事情，只是说说个人观点。所以，认同一粒沙的观点。
2年前我沒買下去才真是可惜. 那價格今後跌20-30%也回不來了. 就是我身邊的人嚷嚷下我不敢買的.
二年前買是對的，現在追高除剛需，其它都是急進的!
@@sugarlien 你说的我接受，现在，我们看到涨肯定会后悔，我是想如果没有涨砸在手里的投资房，不就被动了吗？没关系，我们再看3-4年也许就庆幸2年前没有买的时候，再买呗。
@@qinggong9250 千万别追高，你说的我接受，现在，我们看到涨肯定会后悔，我是想如果没有涨砸在手里的投资房，不就被动了吗？没关系，我们再看3-4年也许就庆幸2年前没有买的时候，再买呗。
@@aqilao4925 Detroit had its glory days in the 70th, all the luxury cars.
what happen now.
2600sqft花了70多万去买。这不是浪费钱吗？2600sqft，不能超过35万才算不错的deal吧。70多万在lehi都可以买个5000的了。
@@by9zd567 这里不讨论香港房价。
高买高卖，低买低卖，有差吗？
我想做个假设 同样的房子
一，房价100万 利率2% 固定30年 20%首付 20万 房产税每年1万
二，房价80万 利率4% 浮动3年 20%首付 16万 房产税每年8千
两个月供都差不多 3k 你会选哪个？
利率永远是个循环，假设5年后利息又降回了2%
一，没有变动
二，房价涨到100万，利率再融资转固定2% 月供降至2千3
第一
當然第二
blind points
1. refinance 30 years fixed 5 years later, you need to use 25 years fixed if you do an apple to apple comparison , 5 years mortgage is 183K , 60k for princpal ( guess) 123k interest ... plus property tax and insurance is 2.8K per month , yes you can use it as rent but the opportunity cost of 160K down oppportunity cost has not calculated , 5 years 8% per year is 230K 5 year later add $1170 to the rent ie 4K fo rent ... is it rational 4k for renting the house priced at 800K you can give me an answer also based on your income
2. your suggestion work perfect fine when the price is at the low position and the mortgage rate is at high position .... where are we now ? the price is at the peak and the interest rate just 5% now ( not 4%) and 2% is irrational , the lowest in history is 2.67% average APR ...2% awh where will this come from ?
interest rate is a cycle from a base line but the base line can be shift up and down but there is no space to shift down but up ....2% haha
if we have a preset answer to a question and try to find some scenario to make it look irational ... we can cheat ourselves ... but the risk to reward level is not justified ...
第一个方案没有考虑下跌后的损失。第二个没考虑可能后续升值后。
讲得有道理。你的业务邮箱可否给我。谢谢！
elizawu2018@gmail.com
美国的房子太贵，升的快，离开美国去欧洲买。比美国合算多了！
是的，我早就逃离英语系国家，
去东南亚，日本听说不贵性价比高
我相信世间万物都是循环周期。
英语系国家过去20年被炒的太过了，内卷太厉害。
退回30年，这三个地方是送钱都没有人要去的地方啊，
那时，大家向往移民 欧洲，日本，南美 后来这些国家泡沫经济破了。
美国算好的，得天独厚
看了加拿大，澳洲，新西兰 那房价涨的，工资是停滞的
怎么说美国经济还是好，工作机会多。
美国还是可以通过努力过上中产生活的。
@@fool1124 加拿大政府采取了一些措施，比如两年不准外国买家买房，也在加息中，目前房市淡下来了，但是房源也很少。
@@SunglassSister 恩恩，加拿大沒有華爾街也沒有矽谷怎麼去負擔這麼高的房價，想不通。我的印象裡加拿大主要出口原材料，不是嗎？有那麼多高薪的工作？
@@fool1124 加拿大我觉得和外国投资者还是有很大关系。听说当地人40%都是有两套房。
要讨论这个话题，首先把AGENT全部屏蔽了再说
难啊，
很多高段的 agent 把自己伪装成买家 说太后悔没抢到房
哈哈哈
case study ... something new awesome.. i made an assumption your friend is mortgage free and it is his or her primary resiudence ... rental 4200sq ft is not smart ... 950K.... 5% agent fee , the actual in procket is 902.5K, the agent was a happy one .. i guess the home improvement was 40K to 100K , your friend sounds have a " itchy body " when he or she has a cash ... the actual in pocket down another 50k t0100K .. ao we have the 800k to 850K ... buy or sell period at least 1 year period ... 12 months rent ... i guess 3K*12 =36K , moving fee and storage fee : 8K ... If the picture in your video is the new house, no garage driveway, the lot is small possible 4000 to 6000 sq ft ... no fence .. itchy body will use another 30k to 40K to upgrade ... After all those and inconvenience , your will may be break even or have some loss but the living standard get worse
4200 6 bedrrom 3.5 bath
9900 sq ft lot
garage fenced yard and nice mature plants
to
2700 4 bedroom 2.5batrh
4000 to 6000 yard
no garage
no driveway
holly cow How much is a itch y body cost him or her ?
Biggest loser : your friedn
winner the property developer
biggest winner : the property agent : 2.5% +2.5% for two deals left and rigth
awh do not ask your friend to watch this program ... people live in a dream is happier !
Thanks for your input. The 2600 house build in 1995, but the picture is wrong. 2 garages and a driveway, nice views, good location. I agree that the biggest winner is the property agent.
@@SunglassSister that sounds right.. But the downgrade from 4200 to 2600 sq ft.. The feeling of living standard is huge differenr Without much advantage... Still.. Not too good except they retire but do not have to buy right the way especially cash deal.. But once you have a preference of location or certain type of requirement at a limited supply market is big difffernt.. Good view and good location are not for retirees because the property tax part is not much cheaper Strawberries at USA is $1.95 /lbs but in Hong Kong is $19.5/lbs .. Yes. The one in Hong Kong may taste better but with $20 you. Can find two lbs of BBQ pork there, the satisfaction is bigger.. You mentioned the psychology condition for the buyer is right... You will miss something.. But buy or sell still need to have the plan b what is the opportunity cost... And the handling charge.. The location a b and c are location.. We do not need to be just pick location a... View of the river and the Mt are good view we do not have to pick river and the flooding insurance is considered... And we only buy the best at the location a b or c.. During a crazy market, the last requirements will not easily to fulfil or pay much higher premium
@@SunglassSister just optimize the condition for long run, at the end you can achieve most of your target not one not two but most ... Just a delay of satisfaction! Location location location and a million dollar view.. Each house is unique..plus two must buy, then we have to buy la.. Must to mean no negotiation power.. Then we can move some bullets from the other place to do the "must" .