Are We on the Brink of Nuclear War?
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- VIDEO NOTES
Carl Robichaud co-leads Longview Philanthropy’s programme on nuclear weapons and existential risk. For over a decade, Carl led grant-making in nuclear security at the Carnegie Corporation of New York, a philanthropic fund which grants over $30 million annually to strengthen international peace and security.
Carl previously worked with The Century Foundation and the Global Security Institute, where his extensive research spanned arms control, international security policy, and nonproliferation.
- TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
3:24 How likely is nuclear war today?
11:10 What does a worst-case nuclear scenario look like?
20:05 Were the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki justified?
28:16 Was there ever a world in which nukes didn't get made?
32:20 What's the closest we've come to nuclear annihilation?
47:56 What measures are currently in place to prevent nuclear conflict?
53:58 The Oppenheimer movie
1:02:52 The victims not depicted in "Oppenheimer"
1:06:58 Looking forward
1:08:45 Outro
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ENDURING WORLD PEACE.
Humanity must change the composition of the security council of the UN, from 5 member countries with the power of Vito, to two representatives from every country on Earth. Any leader who turns their defence force, into an attack force must be immediately arrested and charged with crimes against humanity. Voted, endorsed and facilitated by the security council and carried out by the UN's coalition of the willing.
Please... don't become on of those people who wait minutes into video to do non-adsense...
@@ryvyr Dont begrudge someone making money off something that YOU are getting for free.
@@UnclePhillyMyAss Ought it be mutual consideration of creator and viewer? Plenty sympathy for how insulting YT pays now, so I and increasingly more people watch non-adsense if at very front/back/both of video, and skip over if not, so everybody wins.
@@ryvyr skip the sponsor then… jesus so entitled
I recognize a shift in your channel to real, critical journalism. I love it! We need intelligent men like you asking great questions from experts
This podcast is becoming more and more amazing. It's very interesting to see people with more diverse backgrounds on the podcast. Thanks Alex
Alex was smart to jettison his activist view on meat consumption. It's not only a highly controversial topic, but the position he held as a supposed moral better was egoistic and impossible to defend logically.
Someone like andrew tate would get smoked on this podcast. Too bad that guy only talks to stupid people to appear smart
@@kenhiett5266 well I mean if he is arguing that going vegan is moral that implies that non-vegans are immoral
@@kenhiett5266 Do you seriously think alex is that scared of defying social norms? To be honest your interpretation of his views seems far more "egotistical" than his. Respectfully, as someone who just ate an Italian seasoned pork tenderloin.
@@zodo2476 Pointing out that someone claiming to be the moral better of 99% of the worlds population, based on an illogical premise is egoistic, is somehow my inflated sense of self? Feel free to explain.
Would've been the biggest turn around (or upset) if they started discussing the philosophy of Barbie and it's political impact
Or the philosophy of the contracted vs the possessive pronoun.
@@Empathiclistener 🤣🤣
@@Empathiclistener Or the philosophy of _____ bigots that are obsessed with attacking the LGBTQ+ community. Stop obsessing over it, okay???????
The thing about "the risk of igniting the atmosphere" is a big misconception about what us physicists mean when we say "nearly zero". Any physicist will tell you that there is a "nearly zero" chance of all the molecules of air going to one corner of the room making you suffocate in a vacuum. No one think that can really happen, but mathematically, the probability of that is not zero. Basically, "nearly zero" is synonymous with "undistinguishable from zero".
The concern of igniting the atmosphere was raised in the early stages of the Manhattan project, but when they looked into it, they realize it would not happen. The energy losses were much greater than the output of the Nitrogen fusion reactions, so any chain reaction would quickly fizzle out. It was also calculated for the possibility of igniting the ocean, if the bomb were detonated underwater. Again, the numbers clearly told it would not happen. Not "one in three million". Not ever.
But a physicist doesn't like to say that the probability is exactly zero, because epistemologically we can't have absolute certainty.To put another example: Colloquially, we say that the mass of the photon is zero, but what a particle physicist will tell you is that it is
Absolutely. What I meant to convey is that when Teller *initially* ran the numbers they were unsure. Later calculations indicated it was near zero (essentially impossible, as you note) though there were people joking about side wagers at the test site as a sort of gallows humor. The film plays that up for dramatic effect, and as a framing mechanism for the larger quandary: what has been set in motion with that first test.
I recently watched both When the Wind Blows, and Threads, both about nuclear effects. I wish world leaders, and people of influence watches these movies. So many leaders seem to act like they can win a nuclear war, and build nuclear shelters. There is no way we could afford a nuclear war. Even if it is one bomb, it would clearly trigger a nuclear war where no one wins.
TH-cam -
On the 8th day
@@grahamfisher5436is that a reference to smth?
@finn6364
Watch it... And you'll understand
A friend told me about the film "Threads" (1984). I was aware of the film but never really paid it any mind. Then yesterday, I was recommended a clip of it on TH-cam and subsequently watched the film in full, late at night. It hit me pretty hard, as it does most people. I tend to get a bit obsessive with things that pique my interest or strike a nerve; so whilst researching threads I saw someone mention "When the wind blows" (1986) and I ended up watching that too that same night. That film hit me harder. The characters reminded me of my own ageing parents more than I'd like. It really hammered home the fact that if a nuclear strike were to happen, and I survived, I'd likely be totally unable to help them as they live on the other side of the country. Just the knowledge that my parents could very likely die, slowly and painfully in isolation and total confusion as to what was happening to them fills me with so much dread that I haven't been able to think about anything else in 24 hours. I don't think I've ever felt so helpless.
I've watched the same movies and read the same headlines. Not long ago I asked my great-uncle how it was living through the cold War and what he always told himself was, "I'll do my best, let God do the rest." Believing that God has a plan for us, including your parents, is the only way I've found peace.
@@Array8
That’s just putting your head in the sand though. A god has never stopped any disaster. It never stops a child molester or turns a hurricane away from a populated island in spite of thousands of prayers.
Much better to look at the reality of the situation and take thoughtful actions.
@@judyives1832Exactly
Threads is a glimpse into the void. We are now wrestling beside said void as a species.
@@judyives1832God has done plenty to stop wickedness and it is usually criticized by unrighteous men. Sodom and Gomorrah, the flood, wiping out the inhabitants of Canaan, punishing Israel by utilizing neighboring countries such as Babylon to conquer and take them into captivity, etc.
God is sovereign and in control, and His plan will come to fruition. There will be a one world government, there will be global disaster, famine, and war, and mark to buy and sell, and Jesus will return to put an end to wickedness and judge the unrighteous.
I will agree, however, that we can have faith in God's plan while still exercising responsibility and good stewardship over our health, wealth, the Earth, and our families until that time comes.
Really wonderful podcast, thank you both to Alex and Carl!
"No one recovers from the disease of being born, a deadly wound if there ever was one"
-Emil Cioran 😢 ❤
Way too pessimistic, I don't like it at all
Antinatalism is merely a lack of meaning and purpose. Suffering is a necessary component to all worthwhile things.
@@kenhiett5266I find that even more depressing lol
@@Redflowers9 All deep thinking people struggle with this at some point. I've searched the worlds religions, cultures, and literature, and questioned the wise elders. There is no solace of a higher meaning to be found, but that doesn't have to define the journey. We're here, and that's amazing in and of itself. Lack of information is only that, and although an unmoved mover would likely be something our Earthly perspective could make little sense of, all we have to do is decide what to do with the time we have. Meaning comes from the inside, and the quantum world demonstrates it's all connected.
@@kenhiett5266 I appreciate you giving me the benefit of the doubt but I'm not that deep lol, I just live to minimise my suffering and optimise my overall contentment. I don't want to struggle a lot to achieve something worthwhile, I've suffered a lot and have not achieved something worthwhile or something that would at least justify tolerating the hardship, thats not to say I haven't learnt anything or that it hasn't made me stronger, just that it isn't/wasn't totally necessary.
Since the discussion is surrounding nuclear wars and what impact it would have on the world, I highly recommend watching the British film, "Threads". An absolute classic yet horrifying to watch
Absolutely. Takes you through the human reality of nuclear weapons. Also tackling that angle of how unaware people might be of what’s coming up until the last day
I watched that as a kid, was a really disturbing movie, especially as it was created as a documentary more or less. Bought it on DVD many years ago, it may be old but the yield of these weapons are just as high today.
No mention of the India/Pakistan tension? As terrifying as the Russia invading Ukraine War is, I think this is the conflict that has the largest chance of quickly esculating (and both sides are armed.)
Seeing the current economic conditions of Pakistan , there is no chance of a war between India and Pakistan in the near future.
Watch the video at 46:13. They have mentioned the scare of Pakistan , India nuclear conflict.
Iam more afraid of nato
@TheIrfanmd Good find, but I guess I expected more than hearing "India/Pakistan" offhanded listed off in a listing of locations. I did watch the full video and honestly did not even remeber that.
@johanahonen8627 You probably should not be. I would be afraid of either aggressive countries that threaten their use (Russia and North Korea) in some cases while invading another country, or long standing conflicts since the 40s where one or both sides have been racing to develop (Pakistan/India, North Korea/South Korea, Israel/Iran.)
China and Nato are ironically probably the safest countries currently (as far as least likley to use them, obviously every country has their respective issues.) I would say North Korea is actually pretty safe too ironically, they use them more for internal propaganda, so that is kind of an anonomly.
Hope this podcast does well. Important conversation
Thank you Alex for your great choice of subject during this period of Russian invasion. As an Irannian, I am obliged to bear the burden of confronting the islamic regime which is ruling our land and it's nihilistic apocalypticism view about life. These incompetent greedy tyrants should never get their hands on nuclear weapons. They've shown how brutal they are when they helped other tyrants like Syria and Russia so far. So as long as we iranians are fighting against their domestic and international destructive ambitions, I'm asking all rational people on earth to use any effective tool they have to stop tyrants from accessing or using nuclear weopons.
I don’t think you should give that Regime any philosophical credit. It’s egoism, not nihilism. You may disagree with (moral) nihilism but it’s not as bad as the regime of your country.
@@SchgurmTewehr I agree that they didn't choose their standpoint after some serious study on philosophy, in fact recently we describe them as "cattle" in persian, but I didn't want to humiliate cows by this comparison in public. I was trying to use a word that summarize their absurd lifless view over real world. So I'm sorry for my misuse and lack of engilsh skills.
@@allmb8685 من کاملا با تو موافق هستم. روزهای رژیم ایران به شماره افتاده است. سلام از افغانستان
Be careful what you wish for. You could end up with another Reza Shah.
All too often, from Libya to Syria to Haiti, young idealistic people grow up on US-made media which portrays American ideals positively and makes anything opposed to them to be evil.
They they go on to destabilize or overthrow their regime, only to realize that the Americans don't actually care about the values shown in the movies, and are happy supporting a new Khomeini just as long as he does business with the West (instead of Russia China Cuba etc).
If you really think the government should change, be extremely careful about which group you go out into the streets to support.
It will be the difference between being independent, and being a puppet. 1960s for you Iranians all over again.
@@allmb8685 Nothing to apologize for, your English is good. I hope that one day you manage to throw off the shackles of the Majles and the Ayatollah and live freely.
AMAZING TALK XX
To remark on something else that was said in Oppenheimer, "They won't fear it, until they understand it, and they won't understand it, until they use it." Before the bomb is tested, it's only theory, and it might have stayed theory if the Nazi's didn't start testing those theories. It might be impossible, but we can't risk the Nazis testing it alone and figuring out it's not, because if it's not, we have to have one if what the theory says is true. Then we built it and tested it and indeed that understanding brought about a fear that the world has never seen before. A fear of your neighbor on a global scale, even your allies. We don't just have nuclear weapons to keep us safe from our enemies. The world changes with the times, and allies might not always be allies, and if they have nuclear weapons, we have to be ready for the moment they become our enemy. Once they tested the gadget, the creation of more nuclear weapons was inevitable, as disheartening and horrifying as the reality may be. Unfortunately I don't think there could have been an alternate past where they weren't created, at least outside of the Nazis never having had a nuclear weapons program.
very good comment.
I love how software is basically what stops the apocalypse, reminds me of the therac 23 software failures...
I’d piss on a sparkplug…
Makes it even scarier that cosmic radiation hitting the earth can go through things and trigger computer errors, and it happens all the time.
It may assuage your fears slightly to know that we have been designing around the idea of random faults and bad data occurring via phenomena we can't control for awhile now. F.E. ECC memory, in-process parity checking, multi-input confirmation, study of most likely false positive results. Low error requirement computing is a much different beast compared to commercial computing.
Unfortunately, not everyone puts the same amount of care into the process.
@@SeamusCameron if it's ECC then it would be programmed for self-preservation, so it should also learn itself how to predict possible disaster scenarios and temporarily shut itself off to bypass any high-risk potential compromise to its runtime of regularly scheduled error correcting tasks.
Wonderful podcast
25:33 - It's a very good point, but I think it bears repeating that even conventional warfare causes horrific injuries to people: their faces get blown apart etc., and we certainly would not accept this as a torture tactic either.
Especially cluster bombs
'I think we should reject that ..' Perhaps the saddest word for sword and mien, worse even than - 'it might have been'. On a roll here, Mr O'Connor. Another great topic, a good(-ish) guest, and a fine unpeeling of yet one more particularly tear-filled onion for our proper consideration.
As to a 'world in which nukes didn't get made' .. Yes, there is such a world but being timeless it is not accessible in time, however long or relative that time is. Where? at work even now, in the naggingly conflicted human heart (and thus easily ignored - at our own peril).
But then, helping to spend the swilling-dosh of a philanthropic fund - which grants over $30 million annually to .. erm .. strengthen international peace and security (whatever that means) - sounds like a good job, in many more ways than one; true, a million bucks don't go near as far now as in yesteryears, but at least it's not nothing.
Keep the Faith; tell the truth, shame the devil, and let the demons shriek.
God bless. ;o)
P.S. What a summer of morality-laden entertainment - News and Weather reports exploding across the small (large) screen with world-destroying events of .. regular summer news and weather, and then the electric moving-picture cinematographic showhouses offering Oppenheimer, Barbie or perhaps the Sound Of Freedom; it is almost a moral dilemma in and of itself to decide which deserves our hard-earned pound tokens - more than the others.
1. There is no such thing as nuclear war, only nuclear armageddon.
2. Politicians know #1.
3. There IS a possibility of nuclear armageddon, not triggered by war or politics. The accidental detonation of a nuclear bomb is the biggest threat - many folks consider this inevitable.
Exactly what I need on a Sunday evening 😭
😞😥
Why the crying emoji?
@@martiddyThank you for letting me know you exist, Sherlock Holmes.
@@SchgurmTewehrfatality
@@SchgurmTewehr what?
Russia - 6,257 (1,458 active, 3039 available, 1,760 retired)
United States - 5,550 (1,389 active, 2,361 available, 1,800 retired)
China - 350 available (actively expanding nuclear arsenal)
France - 290 available
United Kingdom - 225 available
Pakistan - 165 available
India - 156 available
Israel - 90 available
North Korea - 40-50 available (estimated)
I thought that Israel has never confirmed whether they actually have any (though it’s believed to be the case), let alone how many they have
@@iolairmuinnmalachybromham3103That is true. Israel has never officially confirmed they gave any nuclear technology yet it is widely believed they do.
@@iolairmuinnmalachybromham3103the CIA has never confirmed they have overthrown governments and assassinated World leaders either
Recent estimates put Israel’s nuclear arsenal at 200, not 90.
Also it’s insane how North Korea went from no nuclear weapons to 40-50 in very few years.
Less and less people desire wars and that is because we managed to build such a functional society. Despite what the news and overall negative feeling people share we actually live in the best time possible.
Ok Leibniz, go talk to Voltaire.
We would if people stopped using victim cards as justification for grinding others beneath their heels.
I believe warfare is just used as conventionally as it was in the past. Besides the conflicts in the Middle East and the current Russo-Ukrainian War, most wars use other methods. I am talking about more sophisticated economic wars. Since we live in a globalized era, which is the only time in our history that we have been globalized to this extent, and the world economy is so complexly intertwined, larger countries can hide resources from regions that they disagree with and its effects are more heightened. Also, we have advanced to a point where full-scale wars would be demonstrably harmful and can threaten to escalate naturally with more brutal weapons than we have ever had. This threat of nuclearization steers individuals to try and avoid conflict altogether, instead focusing on other things. I feel as though for a developed country like Russia to threaten nuclear weapons is a step backward in the global agenda of progress and could have profound negative implications. That is why I hope that the Russian people get rid of Putin before his failing war turns into a nuclear disaster.
No we don’t, we live in terrible times. The 90s were far better
No the late 2010s were the peak of stability in the world
Not to take anything away from the devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings the majority of deaths occurred due to the houses being all made of wood/bamboo and the mass fires rather than the blasts themselves.
great episode. Something a bit different but really nice. I think it's nice to mix it up a bit and sometimes just discuss real world issues like this, as opposed to religious and moral philosophy discussions (which are also great obviously)
Threads is essential viewing for anyone wanting a realistic depiction of the outcome of worst case nuclear exchange.
Its far far, from the true destructiveness
The whole of Sheffield would be turned into glass and Ash
Just as few as 6-7 warheads
and the entire UK would be gone..
( there are also missiles that are designed to penetrate below the earth's surface.. then Detonate,
so folks who believe that bunkers are a good idea, are unfortunately mistaken..
I grew up in Newark upon Trent,
Once surrounded by the RAF VBG, Vulcan Bomber Group -
Waddington
Syston
Coningsby
(*Scampton
*Wittering
To counter improved Soviet air defences and to extend the life of the V-force a rocket-propelled stand-off missile, the Blue Steel, was developed in 1966 and fitted to Victor bombers. *Wittering and RAF *Scampton were the only two V-bomber bases to house this weapon. For this purpose, new ground facilities were built for its storage and maintenance, and these facilities, with the other nine V-bomber bases, constituted Britain's principal nuclear deterrent).
The Vulcans were the UKs 1st stage Nuclear responce, to a Russian inbound Nuclear air attack
On the Uk.
So..
Approximately twice a month the airbase would practice what is know as the
QRA 3 minutes scramble, ( actually got it down to
1 minute and 20 seconds),
Thats all the Vulcans from all the airbases, taking off at once, up into the Lincolnshire skys,
then heading out across the east coast.
The terrifying thing was,,,, you'd not know if everytime it happened ..
If it was "just another exercise..
Or..
The real thing..
Not until, those birds came back around 45minutes to an hours time.
My lord.. the whole of the Lincolnshire/ Norfolk population
held its breathe ..
May sense and sensibility ALWAYS lead and prevail.
Other viewing on youtube-
* On the 8th day
( anyone who says ' the leaders of the world should be awaire this video shows... They are, thats why not a single Nuclear weapon has been used in aggression)
* QED A guide to armageddon
*Arena A British guilde to the end of the world
*Vulcan bombers and the Cuban crisis
( listen very very carefully to what the pilot says about his instructions to his wife!!! And returning back to the UK !!!
As for
public early
Incoming air attack warning ...
None...
Why....
It would create mass panic,insanity,
( I'm not ashamed to admit..if I heard the alert.. I'd brake down,
Literally go mental, especially when you truly awaire of the reality of whats coming)
( try this... go with friends into a completely empty, bright lit large square room,
For a game of hide and seek ..
As the "hiders",, where are you going to hide, theres nothing in that place to hide, in, under, behind, so you find they ( hiders) will just stand there,
Or start to jump up and down, realising looking around, panicking, as the countdown gets lower.. !!! That.
There is absolutely No where to hide...
thats what would happen if a Nuclear attack warning were to be used..
And a warning is to give the chance to do something .
So why alert the people....
'Wake up... its time to die"
What an important conversation.
Hey Alex, I just found out about your channel 12 hours ago and i'm still watching cause it seems I'm in the same boat as you in terms of (dis)belief. Is there any chance of you talking to Frank Turek again in the future? I just watched your radio interview from 6 years ago with him and since I really love how Frank Turek explains things, I think thats the best video I've seen so far and would absolutely love to see you talk to him again. Especially about your struggle on divine hiddenes. My guess is that Frank is pretty good at explaining a matter like that.
One thing I wish there was more discussion of here is the benefits of nuclear deterrence, and why they don’t justify the existence of nuclear weapons. I do think there’s a very good argument to be made that the Cold War, absent nuclear weapons, could have been world war 3. Mutually assured destruction really is a very strong incentive against war, and it has to be acknowledged that prior to their existence we had two of the bloodiest wars in human history in quick succession. I’d like to believe the prevention of that kind of conflict is possible without nuclear deterrence, but I would have liked to have seen those arguments dealt with instead of more or less taking it as a given that no nukes should be our goal.
Nobody is openly discussing using nukes except Putin and his cronies. Even Xi went as far as to warn Putin not to use them.
I think the western leaders have so far in this war done a good job responding to these threats.
However, in case of USA or EU, you can never really get rid of nuclear weapons as long as there are countries like Russia who clearly have no intention of abiding to the international law and who threaten others with nukes on a daily basis.
True but it also assumes that because mutually assured destruction has worked that it will continue to which is also a dumb notion. one day an accident will happen, or someone will go rogue or a terrorist cell will get their hands on something and no country on earth will have the time to wait to find out more, they will pull the trigger, or the automated systems will do it automatically. It's a choice between a ww3 which could kill tens of millions of people or potentially even a nuclear accident which will end organised life on earth.
What you need to understand is when you read the history you realise it was only by blind luck that we avoided nuclear war. There were several occasions when we were split second decisions away from it, and the USA even accidentally dropped nukes on both Italy and it’s allies and again, it was only blind luck they didn’t go off.
Brinksmanship, finally, someone has finally saying it outloud. It is no less dangerous now than when we did duck and cover drills during the 70s and 80s.
th-cam.com/video/K83HiSRB50M/w-d-xo.html
What I don’t like about the Film is that it focuses so much on the senate hearing. I think the film almost presents Oppenheimer as martyr. When basically all that happen was that he lost his security clearance. This I think in light of all the victims in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is highly problematic. I think instead it would have been more interesting to go into the conflict of conscience of Oppenheimer and leave it to the viewer to make a verdict. Also the hearing is so ridiculously insignificant to all the other stuff that happens and yet it takes almost half of the time of the movie.
24:23
This statement will forever live in my mind.
4:43 The President, Imperfect information, sensor data that could be wrong, Human intelligence that could be wrong. All very sobering.
I think we should add bit flipping to that, as rare as it might be.
Command and control is one of the scariest books I've read
"War is nothing but a bunch of guys waving their pricks at each other." - Carlin
War is the acquisition and control of resources and exists because said resources are finite.
Or freedom if you don't fight for freedom it will be taken by force look at the west cancel culture no forgiveness no debate it's a culture war like all war's
😂
Or someone defending themselves against an attacker.
@@SchgurmTewehr The whole reason they are being attacked is because other people are trying to acquire and control their resources.
What this brings to mind is the Raymond Briggs graphic novel “When the Wind Blows”.
i usually do not agree with your opinions but this podcast was very interesting. Thank you alex!!
What you mentioned about torture, wasn't that part of the plot on a mission impossible movie?
Most don't know that the classic yarn _The Hunt for Red October_ is partially based on the true story of a Soviet nuclear sub that likely went rogue and tried to start a nuclear war. Look up K-129 and John P. Craven's book _The Silent War: The Cold War Battle Beneath the Sea._
Great discussion, Alex. It's so unfair that you're such a great philosopher, thinker, and interviewer at your age. Please keep up the good work.
lol what a random deepthroat
He’s wrong about Nagasaki.
The Japanese high command tried to convince the Emperor that the USA could not possibly have the capacity to produce more than one bomb, and so to continue the war was reasonable.
And he seems to suggest, at least implicitly, that the use of two bombs is because they had spent so much to produce the two bombs that were produced, that they may as well use them. This makes no sense whatsoever. If Japan had surrendered, then of course, the second bomb would not have been dropped. They weren’t dropped in the same day, which would have made much more sense if his thesis held any water whatsoever. Not to mention a third bomb was primed for use on only the 19th of August - only 10 days after the bomb was dropped on Nagasaki.
Take a look at this interview with Alex Wellerstein, a highly-regarded nuclear historian:
"there was no strategic choice about Nagasaki. Truman didn’t even know Nagasaki was going to happen. The [military] people on the island Tinian, who were in charge of dropping the bombs, had an order that they could drop the bombs as soon as they were ready to use, and they happened to have two bombs ready at about the same time. They got a weather forecast that said the planned date for the second bombing was going to have bad weather. So they moved it up a day to accommodate the weather. It had nothing to do with high-level strategy. The Japanese were, at this time, still trying to figure out what had happened at Hiroshima. They hadn’t actually concluded or even deliberated about it in any formal way. It wasn’t part of some grand scheme. It complicates the discussion quite a bit when you know those details."
www.vox.com/politics/2023/7/24/23800777/oppenheimer-christopher-nolan-atomic-bomb-true-story-los-alamos-manhattan-project
As a long time and avid viewer of Alex, formerly CosmicSkeptic, I hereby protest the lack of the intro music in this episode! It's iconic, and I have a little dance that I do where I bob my head side to side as the weird electronic vocal thing plays rhythmically. I demand the classic CosmicSkeptic podcast introduction music be brought back!
This is like when LTT announced they were gonna phase out their classic intro too, Supernova by Laszlo. I don't like this, TH-camrs all ditching their classic introductions :(
for more accurate info on nuclear war plans and threats I’d recommend Daniel Ellsberg. The pentagon estimated about 1 Billion casualties for their war plan during the cold war. and based on the interviews with Daniel Ellsberg, a nuclear war between the US and Russia can wipe out not only humans, but most large animals.
Hope Alex does a video about Sinead O'Connor (her anti pope stance, and various other events etc)...and the same surname, and similarly strong in thoughts.
This was an excellent video as always,. makes me want to watch the movie 13 Days again (and i wonder What Openheimer was thinking during the Cuban Missle Crisis).
I think it’s a little simplistic to talk about how many countries have agreed to not have nuclear weapons, when a big part of why they’re comfortable forgoing them is because they trust the US to leverage its nuclear arsenal on their behalf. Ukraine specifically got rid of their weapons because we and Russia promised they would never get invaded, and see how that turned out. You also fail to consider how many lives and how much suffering has been saved because nobody wants two nuclear powers to go to war.
There are several things that are embezzled in this interview. The first is that the attitude of many of the Allied generals was that the Allies should attack the Soviet Union directly after Germany had been defeated. All historical and political analyzes led to the conclusion that World War 3 was going to start within 25 to 30 years of World War 2 no matter what was done. There was no concept of "cold war" at this time. No one had experienced a cold war. The only thing that was known was that up until then wars had become more and more extensive, more and even destructive, and that extensive wars seem to follow a cycle as far back as we write history. It was also known that it was only a matter of time before all technologically competent countries had developed nuclear weapons on their own. The principle of how an atomic bomb should work was widely known among physicists. The only thing left was to demonstrate it in practice. What was thought of as a possible solution to avoid another world war was that there should be only one world power...not two. So, beating Japan before the Russians got involved was seen as absolutely necessary, and not just as a practical solution for their own comfort, as Robichaud indicates (he analyzes with hindsight knowledge).
Because apparently 25 million dead Russians wasn’t enough? When will rich tyrants get it into their hearts, we don’t want your wars
This is the second interview I've watched of yours with the same dog barking in the background. Does Carl live with Dr Luhrmann?
On the aspect of not showing anything about the Japanese victims especially through the years, if one is not already aware of these results and pain then one must be living in a shell. This has been known for decades and the aftermath Is horrible. I do not believe we can put the genie back in the bottle, but we certainly must understand the repercussions of using such weapons.
We must remember that nuclear weapons have prevented a generalized war since 1945. They’ve been incredibly good at keeping the peace.
Until they’re used to kill 10s to hundreds of millions in an instant
@@JusticeIsALie that’s why they’ve kept the peace. No one wants that.
@@mbmurphy777 doesn’t matter if they want it. Pandora’s box is opened.
@@JusticeIsALie WW2 killed over 50 million people. 200,000 died from the nuclear weapons. They have kept the world at an unprecedented level of peace. No major powers have gone to war because of mutual destruction.
@@JusticeIsALie Yet it hasn't been. Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons with assurances from Russia and the USA over 30 years ago, it's been peaceful since.
We're already in a heat wave, what's another 100 million degrees.
My understanding just judging by what I know of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki detonations is that bad nuclear fallout and nuclear winter is unlikely if the nations using the weapons do proper air bursts. But obviously the initial blast is still horrific if used on populated areas and there's no guarantee that all nations would set them to air burst...
I'm just saying that the world changing effects of nuclear blasts are often exaggerated in popular consciousness because of media like video games and movies.
yes but the bombs we have now are literally 1000 times plus more powerful than those bombs. A hydrogen bomb is detinated with the atomic bomb so we are making comparisons to something 80 years ago wwhich is nothing compared to what actually exists now. A bomb that powerful dropped from the same height would carve it's way into the earth regardless.
@@conors4430
Do you mean because of a larger radius of explosion, then even if they are programmed to airburst the radius of the explosion would dig significantly into the ground?
I think the questions are:
1. How much if detonated over a city which are generally covered in concrete and asphalt?
2. Would the nation program the bomb to detonate at the same height, or would they set it to detonate higher because of what you're talking about?
3. How irradiated would the dust end up being if the particulates are not at or near the center of the explosion?
We know both of those bombs I mentioned did cause plenty of soot and dust to go into the air, it just wasn't as irradiated as when a bomb is detonated on or in the ground. This suggests to me that most of the major levels of irradiation happen closer to the center of the blast, and not as much "sticks" to dust that is kicked up mainly by the kinetic and thermal sphere of the blast. But I'm no expert.
MAD?
@@deschain1910there are missiles designed to penetrant deep below the earth's surface..
Then
Detonate
The Sedan crater was created on July 6, 1962, when a 104-kiloton nuclear device was detonated underground. The resulting crater is *1,280 feet wide and 320 feet deep*. The explosion created a cavity that the surface soil collapsed into.
No where
No one
would be safe
Trying to hide would be futile
@@grahamfisher5436
Yeah, I'm aware of those.
But those are made to be used against very specific targets (underground bunkers) and depending on the depth of the bunker, again not much dust would actually be kicked up into the atmosphere. At least, not enough to cause a nuclear winter.
And they would need to know exactly where to aim those. It's not likely that many of those would be used in an attack.
It is interesting how Alex describes torture by nuclear weapons effects on individuals, because it is precisely what Japan was doing since 1932 till the time of their surrender. Also with the concessions provided by the allies Japanese never denounced the action of their emperor and their government so literally everyone except Germany played the victim card and didn't learn anything from their own crimes.
Everyone suffered but most nations got off with little to no accountability.
This conversation would have you believe that conventional weapons are somehow fine. Nuclear weapons should be regarded with the same concern as chemical and biological weapons, but it remains possible that megatons of power of conventional weapons can be used to kill just as many people and cause just as much destruction (although obviously of a different sort)
History proves that some degree of faith in civilisation is needed to manage nuclear arms.
Don't agree that most countries reject nuclear deterrence. Many countries without Nukes are under the US nuclear umbrella, they outsource this defence. The mass slaughter is still accepted as necessary for deterrence
Brian Toon is another great expert on nuclear war.
It's nice seeing you depart a little bit from just philosophy, ethics and religion into other equally interesting topics.
I wonder whether you know that Robert Miles guy from his AI safety channel. He also talks philosophy a bit, so he'd be a perfect guest.
Rob is fantastic, really great guy
The really frightening thing, especially for older audiences is that even back then, when we had 60K nukes pointed at each other, we largely understood what firing them meant. The public was opposed to them, we pressured our governments to sign treaties, to work towards disarmament etc.
Today, faced with the prospect of nuclear annihilation our leaders are making sarcastic remarks about "Red lines" and dismissive statements. While the public seems to be almost ridiculing the idea of nuclear annihilation.
Respect to your guest for warning against it.
7 out of 8 of the experts involved in the Manhattan Project consider that the use of nuclear weapons on Japan was entirely unnecessary as the Japanese were already on the verge of surrendering. They just wanted to try out their new toy and intimidate the Soviet Union.
"Its all based on speed" if you dont decide before the missile lands, you dont decide... so yeah, its gotta be fast. How do you slow that down?
1) good early warning, to give more reaction time; 2) secure second strike weapons like submarines that allow you to “ride out” an enemy’s attack; 3) arms control that limits the riskiest weapons (short time of flight, target and payload ambiguity)
if we have oooh goodie if we have not then time only tells it is either that or food will run out.
The movie fails to address any of the nuclear tests carried out after the war and well into recent decades, which suggest that the public can demonstrate at least some tolerance towards nuclear detonations, especially as long as these don't affect them directly. That's why I believe that-today-a few nuclear detonations wouldn’t automatically lead to mutual destruction. In particular, the adoption of tactical devices in routine warfare seems inevitable.
Still waiting for that UFO video someday
The International Campain to Abolish Nuclear Weapons is a wonderful org. They got the TPNW into force. They can use all the help they can get.
How the fuck is that cat ever going back into any sort of bag? It's sheer idiocy.
@allrequiredfields The United State threw a tantrum during treaty negotiations, and tried to get other states to not sign on in protest. If that is happening, you know that treaty is air tight. It's about giving up hegemony and power. Power that no man should wield, full stop. Claiming its a pipe dream just allows powers to not be held accountable to mass murder in our names with our tax dollars.
@@allrequiredfields
Agreed. No matter which side of a conflict you're on, you can surely agree that nuclear weapons are a deterrent. It keeps conventional conflicts (more) unlikely to happen.
I'll be donating to "The International Campaign to Abolish Meanies and Give Everyone a Puppy" instead. It's much more likely to achieve its goals and when one country cheats on the deal they get meanies and no puppies instead of world domination.
I am so glad your guest knows what he is talking about. Most conversarions ive had or listened to, people just wanted to regurgitate propganda.
Ive been to peace park in hiroshima, ive seen the shadows on the wall, ive been seen the a-dome, talked with a survivor (who had just lived through his 4th wave of cancer), ive walked over the epicentre of the blast (which is right in the middle of the city and not anywhere near the actual naval base was at the time). It was the most somber experience in my life. Even though it was over 13 years ago, i cant help but get emotional when i stop to think of those experiences.
The stories are no more horrific than what happened to millions in WW1 and WW2, not least those tortured, raped, starved and murdered by the Japanese in the Pacific
@@RaveyDavey well, that wasn't the point at all. My point is that there is a lot of misinformation out there on this topic and I am happy the guest knows what they are talking about.
No one said the Japanese were innocent in their warfare.
BRING BACK THE OLD INTRO. IT’S MY FAVORITE PART OF THE VIDEO!
No fiction explores this better than Attack on Titan in my opinion. Eren is confronted by the dilemma of violating the rights of others to ensure the rights of those he cares about.
Trigun is your friend---perhaps the most philosophically heavy anime I have ever known.
@@scaryperi3051What’s Trigun?
@@guitarherops31 The internet is your friend.
22:00 this point he makes about Japan offering to surrender with some “conditions” is incredibly dishonest.
Japans conditions were that they would conduct their own war crimes trials, that there would be no occupation/demilitarization at all and that nearly all the lands and territory they claimed during the war would stay theirs. These were absurd conditions.
He tries to use this to suggest that Japan was already going to surrender anyways, which is far from clear.
I certainly wasn't trying to be dishonest. My point was that Japan was considering surrender even before the bombings. They were trying to get the best terms. Remember, in Japan you have the civilian government, the military leadership, and the emperor, and they don't all agree. The Soviet Union is about to enter the war, giving the allies far more leverage to negotiate a surrender on their terms (they're not going to just accept the Japanese first offer re: conditions...) In the end, even after the bombs, the US accepted a surrender a condition that kept the Emperor in place.
@@carlrobichaud5611Your explanation only makes your argument weaker by suggesting that the US couldn’t even trust if the peace offer they were getting from the Japanese was at all representative of national policy or a completely empty promise the government was in no position to enforce.
War is about how much stuff vs how many lives
The core of Hiroshima was hit, while just the industrial area of Nagasaki on the other side of the mountain. (I have been to both of these cities. Hiroshima is a very beautiful city. Hard to believe we dropped a nuke on their core)
I wish we would just all agree to get rid of nuclear weapons and also to find ways to resolve disagreements without resorting to war and conflict. We have had several thousands of years in existence to understand how bad wars are, yet we don't seem to learn our lesson. We call ourselves advanced, yet we still fight with sticks and stones. We call ourselves civilized, yet WE STILL FIGHT. Until we can finally decide to resolve differences without conflict, we can never know peace and I personally don't want to live in a world as unstable as this one. With the risk of annihilation being so high, I'd prefer to just get it over with and finally feel free of the threat once and for all. I should not have to live with this threat hanging over my head on my own planet without my consent and I should not have to live with the fear that my life could end at any time before I even know it happened. This is my planet, too, and I did not give my permission for these weapons to exist. As long as the risk is there, none of us can truly live free of fear.
Stop fighting over land, it's just dirt.
Stop fighting over money, it isn't real.
Stop fighting over beliefs, they don't affect you.
Stop fighting on my planet, I didn't give you permission.
We ever gonna get a 500k sub special? 🤔
When will Alex tackle mental health in relation to religiosity vs atheism ?
I’d welcome that. Recently came out of a cult
@@brothercaleb Indeed. Plus it’s a radical change that puts many people in a state of existential dread, depression, or exploration of deeper questions. It might be necessary to discuss coping mechanisms with the change, or having some good reality checks to stay in control?
@@nikolastesla9907 I have social anxiety sometimes…the cult taught absolute isolation from the “world” (anyone who was an outsider). So I certainly agree with you about having to deal with change and everything with it.
Thanks for mentioning this.
I'll watch more but needed to comment on the point that Putin was raising the Alert on his nuclear forces.
You get 3 or 4 minutes warning at most of a nuclear attack, therefore as with our own forces they are always on hgh alert.
If someone for some reason doesn’t know Cillian Murphy or the movie Oppenheimer the thumbnail will be very confusing for that person.
Alex, Please create a video on abortion.
I second this. 👍
Without God, real human significance vanishes. Mass slaughter loses any real moral significance.
This! Let's see if Alex's ethics hold up to logical consistency when it comes to prenatal human life.
@@EdithBromfeldIf believing in God is the only thing that prevents you from killing innocent people and doing other crimes, then you're not a moral person. You're just afraid of eternal punishment.
@@EdithBromfeld I have human significance and value humans accordingly. How and why is this possible since I don't believe in gods? Oh, right, your argument is complete bullocks; that's how and why.
Really interesting conversation -- but I'm a little confused why North Korea wasn't mentioned literally even once?? Or did I somehow miss that?
Crazy thing is the Cuban Missile Crisis did kick off a full scale nuclear war... we just don't live in that time line thankfully lol
56:01 780 page book or what Brandon Bandon Sanderson fans like to call it: shortstory
It’s over!
America must have been extremely confident the war was over and Russia would play nice to drop their last nuke just for fun as the guest claims. I'd always assumed they wouldn't have dropped their last one flippantly with the looming threat of Russia post WW2.
You mean threat of America.
Sobering 😢
My cousin Paul made 6 IMAX movies. All underwater.
Loved the video, but in relation to the sponsors, could we see VPNs for what they truly are? They don't have the implicit aim to protect people from dangerous Web nasties, but are more for accessing sites that aren't within their region (e.g. Netflix) under the guise of protection. This is seen with the copious amounts of VPNs doing the same thing on TH-cam for the same false aim, for the same true reason: fearmongering and making money.
Edit: Furthermore, the timing of this videos within the proximity to the film Oppenheimer makes it clear that this subject is only broached to benefit an advertiser, as pined above. This topic is definietley an important issue to discuss, but to jump on the bandwagon of search queries defers from the actual importance of the subject.
This is why the galaxy is empty. Eventually everyone discovers nukes.
Phillip Mainländer....
Like, a civilization gaining the ability to have such high powered weapons and then eventually using it on each other and then...boom.
Obviously there can be no real evidence for such an idea, well done because you just made a non-falsifiable hypothesis.
@@SchgurmTewehrthere will be when we eventually blow ourselves up.
@@waynemongo Hell of a way to win a debate.
Don't worry I stumbled across the inlaws watching Titanic (When it 1st came out on Video)
On returning home we started to tell my teenage step son about the brilliant special effects as the boat was sinking.
He snapped " Don't tell me how it endsI'm hiring it out tomorrow!"
There are so many moments in this interview where the guest makes statements to whit. Where he simply asserts that an observation is true without giving us any reference to evidence at all. We are just expected to believe it.
This is how conspiracy theorists transmit their fears to the wolrd and even if he is correct, i have far to many unanswered questions to just take it all on faith.
An existential threat to humanity is not a topic for anyone with anxiety issues, and yet, if this doesn't make all of us anxious to remove the threat, we are most likely doomed. Perhaps the real question is, "Are we worth saving?"
What is worth, and does it even exist outside of human morality?
If the universe goes on after human existence, it is inexorably on its path toward the end of entropy and the heat death of the universe. Does it follow that existence? Any existence had value?
I might make the argument that value is a fundamental part of the human experience. Watching a chimpanzee tear a monkey's limbs off and feeding on it while it's still screaming isn't a moral issue for the chimpanzee. Only for us, after all.
Im not sure i believe that Japan would have surrendered
To prosecute the war against Japan was costing America about 9 billion dollars a month. If the bombings hastened the end of the war by even one week the Manhattan Project more than paid for itself.
Not quite
The deployment of an operational Nuclear weapon require a proximity fuze which was the second largest research project by the West, and the B-29 bomber which was the 1st largest research project; the atom bomb was the 3rd largest.
So perhaps 3 to 4 weeks as the pay point on that crude calculus; along with half million deaths.
Hope so❤ squarrrk
If they didn't surrender after the first bomb, then both bombs were obviously needed.
You don't seem to know much about history 😂
@@johanahonen8627 I know a lot more than you do.
@@lylez00hiroshima and nagasaki aggree with you
The plight of the Christmas Island test veterans has only recenly been revealed.
I saw Barbenheimer in that order and enjoyed both in movie for movie sake - yes Ryan was amazing as satirical Ken, and at least a slice of non-propaganda history made way into Oppenheimer~
Let’s just give control of NORAD to AI.
Nothing could possibly go wrong.
It's been two weeks, can we all get killed now? Or do we have to do this ourselves?
And the bigger the bomb the more Dead People. Common sense. Have a blessed Day ❤️🙏
When I think of Hiroshima and Nagasaki I am filled with dread, it was the lesser Evil. I hate that term...
To answer your question NO. As a theology student please live with hope not doom.
"Carl Robichaud co-leads Longview Philanthropy’s programme on nuclear weapons and existential risk. For over a decade, Carl led grant-making in nuclear security at the Carnegie Corporation of New York, a philanthropic fund which grants over $30 million annually to strengthen international peace and security." My suggestion is USA negotiate in good faith. Minsk accords was a ploy by USA, Putin pleads to negotiate and USA tells Russia go to h-ll.
Those defence contractors need to keep that $$ flowing.
Russian colinialism needs to be stopped....
Russia pleaded for decades for USA stop with the NATO expansion into Ukraine. But USA decided on a violent coup to depose an elected official, armed Ukraine to the teeth and continues to fund a proxy war. I have news for you. Russia considers a NATO Ukraine with missiles aimed at Russia an existential threat. Live with it. Russia will turn Ukraine into a parking lot.