Learn Financial Modelling - Step by Step - Session 6 | Forecasting
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ย. 2024
- #financialmodeling #valuation #financialmodelling
In this session of FULL COURSE on FINANCIAL MODELLING in EXCEL; we have covered everything you need to know in FINANCIAL MODELLING as BEGINNER. It covers Sales Forecasting in detail. I will guide you on how to automate forecasting using historical financial statements.
Like our previous session in FULL COURSE on FINANCIAL MODELLING for BEGINNERS, it also breakdown everything in STEP BY STEP manner using LIVE PROJECT or EXERCISE file so you can PRACTICE it while watching this session (link below).
FINANCIAL MODELLING in EXCEL is a crucial SKILL one must learn in order to make a CAREER in INVESTMENT BANKING, EQUITY RESEARCH, VALUATION, and other CORE FINANCE ROLES.
By the end of this course, you will have a STRONG FOUNDATION in FINANCIAL MODELLING and be able to confidently CREATE FINANCIAL MODELS IN EXCEL to support decision-making in your professional life.
Start your journey towards becoming a FINANCIAL MODELLING EXPERT now!
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Please mention is the comments which all concepts you want to learn in the future.🙏
Case study analysis. dCF, revenue models etc.....
Any finance related topic that help us in future
Thanks for the amazing session.
Would love a video on the bond market with deep conceptual knowledge with examples and resources after this series.
I mean real life scenarios which help us to develop more domain knowledge about it.
And please make video on Industries analysis
@@kajalnayak1365 sir r u linked in
You donot have any clue , how many blessings you are getting by providing these videos for free, may god bless you.
Seriously bro, I was tired but could not find any worthy video on youtube..he is a pure gem, felt like bhaiya se ghar meh padh raha hu
Sir i casually searched financial modeling on you tube the the first video that popped up was yours. and Iam so glad that it was your video. your financial modeling course is more worth than any other paid financial modeling course on any other platform. your doing a great job thank you so much
I can't thank you enough sir. Without you financial modelling couldn't have been easier. Looking forward to more resourceful sessions ahead. Keep spreading healthy education to you're youtube family.
42:00 - Problems in using AM & GM.
51:24 - Forecasting using Regression
Sir, I kindly request that you provide some videos on DCF that cover beta analysis, revenue model, WACC, and stock price analysis etc . I ask for these videos because your step-by-step approach provides great deep learning opportunities for all of us.
Thank you Sir!
Hi sir I think in forecasting EBITDA you have taken the wrong value I have taken the value we have calculated in the Historical Financial sheet. due to that, the answer is different. Idk which one is correct. please tell
Amazing Video Again , Just wanted to ask you in the data sheet for Mar 19 , EBITDA is given (1914) whereas in our HistoricalFS Sheet , we have calculated EBITDA for March 2019 as Rs 24664 , why such huge difference in figures and whether in future if such an error arise , which figure should we consider as true source?
Corporate finance ke videos bhi banayu...basuc to advanced
Yes , sir Interested in Stock market Fundamental analysis
Sir, please do make a video on "How to make an equity research report".
Yes sir please do this
Yeah😢
Please
I agree, sir plzz make it
Sir, the video is not slow at all and the depth of knowledge you give is commendable. Thank you very much for the time and effort you put into providing us with such valuable material. Also, please make videos about fundamental analysis. Thank you!
So nice of you
Amazing session sir !! It is very rare to see mentor like you who release the video without achieving the pre-decided goal (10k family) but I'm pretty much sure that this channel gonna hit in millions very soon. Thank you for your efforts sir.
If possible can you do a small session on various finance concepts like valuation, risk free rate etc. Like Damodaran Sir have done but in your own method/understanding. It will help alot to explore finance concepts.
Hahaha, thanks!
This guy is a pure soul legend , he teaches so well and made the valuations so easy , Hatsoff man❤️
Currently watching this session. Previous 6 session were amazing and I brushed up all my degree Financial Management concepts through this playlist. Thank you so much, Parth Sir!
You are such an amazing teacher🙌
I m from Pune. Won't name the institute but what you are teaching, they teach half of it for hefty fees and incompetent but overconfident people.
YES PLEASE MAKE SERIES ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ... AND HOW TO USE SCREENER AND OTHER FINANCIAL APPS OR SITES..
The Finance guru of mine! sir doing a job in equity research and still learning more new things from your video. Your content is a phenomenon !!!!!!
Hello sir,
Thanks a lot for the lesson. You are actually doing a great job providing such a valuable content. I was having a question regarding the use of only statistical methods for forecasting. For example in case of Tata Motors, they are consistently increasing their market share in PV segment from 5% in FY20 to 12% in FY22 also they have managed to capture initial 80% of the market share in EV segment along with constant 45% share in commercial vehicle segment. So it seems like they will be growing their sales much more than statistically forecasted 2% per annum. will love to learn on your upcoming videos that how can we actually integrate those facts while forecasting?
Thanks again for all your efforts. Looking forward to your new videos.🙂🙂
Hi Can u make a video related KPI of different industries or revenue drivers
Make a series on fundamental analysis
Best course to lift the concepts of Financial modeling at most practical manner.
Bas thoda price kam kardho sir, although i know comparatively low he hai par just a request so that students like us can afford it
Hello, this is Sarmad Iqbal from Pakistan. I have a query regarding forecasting methods, How does a regression model incorporate intensive sales growth driven by the introduction of a new plant into the forecast.
@thevaluationschool Hello Parth Sir , Thank you alot for getting an amazing skills with such a great & simplified teaching . Sir could get a series for stock Fundamental analysis as well !
Sir aapne aaj proved kardiya ki aap sahi me aannd kumar hai . Sir apke jitna in depth maine MBA me bhi nahi sikha jo aaj me yaha sikh raha hue . Sir hats of to you . Ye mere 7 th day with your FM series
"Voon punch line acchi thi huma toon khzana mil gaya ab dusra koon nhi batunga"😁|
I SMELL THE SENSE OF JEALOUSY AND TRYING TO SHOW THE SUPERIORITY. Other then that content is Amazing
If possible Can you please make a video to forecast US stocks and bond yield using financing modeling and DCF and THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR ALL THE VIDEOS, BIG RESPECT to REAL OG
Sir, I've never seen a mentor like you in my entire life. You are truly a gem!! As of now, I've spent more than 1 Lakh in learning financial modeling but never felt confident even after completing those courses. But now just because of your efforts and teaching it's getting easier for me. Thanks, A Lot Guru Ji !! 🙏
Fell in love with excel and modelling through you.
Hi Sir The Forecasting which you thaught in the video,
Can it be done in similar manner for Balance sheet and cashflows ??
Since It is essential to perform DCF analysis for future cashflows
PLS LET US KNOW
Because I belive assumptions for any model has to be done from doing some research!!!
01:12:00
sir i can see a error in this forecasting that is why it is showing adani kaa going down in all the years by the similar proportion
see - if we will ancor our forecast to the known y and known x than all the coming years will use the same data and will ignore the latest forecast we made
that way the data will go in the same direction but with slight cahnges int he propertions beacuse of changing weughts
so instead we need to avoid anchoring here and use the latest data in the further forecasting to get a actuall picture of the forecasting
if i am mistaking please correct me and if i found the mistake than please correct this as it took me alot of time sometimes to clear this concept and your correction can save the time for alot others
@thevaluationschool May God always Bless you for such a good work.
Always Thankful to such a kind efforts.
Hii, sir I didn't get the concept of forecasting properly.
Could you please help me
Can you please tell me, why EBITDA in Historical fs is different from Data Sheet?????
Thank Parth ! Can you please make a vedio on Budget v/s Actual analysis with scratch..The way you doing automated model I'm really attracted with you model..😊😊
hello sir, i was thinking to learn financial modelling since a long time, tried some pocket friendly workshops, courses but in the end they were trying to sell the fully loaded course for which i was hesitating to go forward with it. now i feel lucky that i came across your post on linkedin. while watching your videos/tutorials, i say in my mind " bhagwan ke roop mai aaya hai banda mere liye"😂😂 ( same thing i say to my parents when im telling about you to them that you're teaching this for free)
Thank so much for this unique classes but I have one problem , sorry for this . Sometimes you are explaining in English and then you switch to Hindu suddenly. some of us we are not indian sir , in my opinion I think you could use English so as everyone can understand very clearly the classes... But generally you have every super classes
What I found was we should be using ABS function for growth rate with denominator else it is giving inaccurate growth. So for instance the formula for me was (say for EBITDA growth in 2015): EBIDTA2015/ABS(EBIDTA2014) - 1. This helps to counter situations where values are negative specially in EPS. If we don't use ABS the growth rate was positive even when there was a decrease in negative eps for instance if I had EPS of say -14 and then -57 for two consecutive years the growth rate without ABS would come out to be positive which is not correct.
EBITDA as per data sheet and as per historical FS sheet is different. Is it okay? and also which EBITDA should we consider for forecasting?
Hi sir, just had one doubt, I am watching this video in 2024 so I know the sales of 2023 but the gap between what we have forecasted and the actual sales is really huge. So while working in a firm if the gap is so much, then how to deal with it since it will can effect our performance.
Kindly Clarify
Grateful for your Videos🙏🙏
Sir Thank you very much for your this contribution in my life. But sir how can I get opportunities using financial modelling. Do I need to CFA then only will I get job opportunities or any internship. Please tell me Sir I am in an utter confusion. I do not have enough time. Please Sir 🙏🙏
First of all, Thank you so much for this free of cost invaluable knowledge. Sir, I'd like complete course of FP&A on this channel. God Bless You ❤. If possible fundraising as well.
sir at 01:15:04, under the EPS forecasting table the EPS for 2019 is -7.8 and that of 2020 is -35.9. EPS growth for 2020 should be negative since it has reduced. But the result is a positive growth. There is a mistake in the formula of growth. The formula which we have used is valid when both the no. are positive. Kindly provide a more efficient formula that would be valid for all the possible cases. Thanks
Hi Parth Sir, I have been watching all your Video Lectures Very Religiously,
Recently I got a Pre Interview task asking to Make growth model that forecasts P&L and Cashflow.
Growth model should include the following variables:
Number of salespeople
Amount spent on online advertising.
model should show how P&L and Cashflow increase and decrease based on how those variables change.We don’t expect you to know what Company’s income and expenditure are and we don’t expect you to itemise every single expenditure and income line that company has. We just want to see the way you think.
I need your Help tell me sir How Should I approach this Task.
There is a suggestion. Instead of teaching excel while teaching the FM, its should be more efficient to deploy that time toward explaining why there is particulars format and standard process adopted. Most of the people who is up for the FM should already have a good hands on excel.
Sir, 15:05 you said you should reinvest the money if your Return is less than cost of capital, but you put it like this COC
Sir i guess you did a mistake while forecasting EBITDA , as we are calculating it on yearly basis but you took quarterly data..... Let me know is that right or wrong , waiting for your reply !
you are not a teacher You are a MENTOR , INSPIRATION , GURU for all of us. I can't express in words how much we all are love you sir. keep rocking ❤🔥🔥
Sir I have followed you step by step but when I go to screener it is showing template error and asking for "Reset Excel Customization".
Please Help
In brief the Conclusion of Video
1. Average for forecasting ( Pro & Con)
2. Cagr or GM ( Pro & Con )
3. Linear Regression ( Used for Forecasting ) as it eliminates outliers as well the lows and highs and gives somewhat conservative growth rate
Thank you so much Sir Amazing Video I feel I Know Every things because of you Sir, zero to Hero.
Very much helpful especially for the freshers in IB sector Thank you very much Parth Sir. Requesting you to share some videos on how to do valuation of stocks basis the data available in Screner.
Hi Sir, can you please create a video on predictive modelling for budget at complete PL view. What is input & driver mechanism.
Sir while linking the sales or EBITDA, why did we link it from data sheet rather than HistoricalFS?
sir you have linked EBITDA for forecasting @ 1:10:00 in the data sheet , which shouldn't be done . right sir ? as we aren't allowed to do any changes in the data sheet.. I have linked EBITDA to our historical FS sheet . acceptable ?
Thank you so much Sir for this video. It is really helpful and have cleared few of my doubts. Thank you once again for this quality content. May your channel grow everyday
Parth,
Can you make a video on working capital, Capital expense budget and operations budget ?
I see EBITDA numbers are not correct in TAMO forecasting, we can refer to HistoricalFS sheet instead of Data Sheet. Other than that I am really sitting with Notes and Doing everything parallelly when you teach. Thanks for the sessions.
Thank you for cearting such a informative financial modeling series. Can I post my financial modeling done with the approach you shared on these videos on my linkedIn ?
Sir, isme ek cheez bhul gye aap. Teenon tables k headers m sales and sales growth reh gya...usse dynamic Krna reh gya.
Otherwise, thankyou very much SIR for all the videos. Now, we can learn as much as we want. Thankyou very much ❤❤. Sir you are making it look so simple, I am wondering why companies pay such large amounts for such an easy task😅
Hi sir, I have a doubt. You have mentioned that a company should distribute profit if COC>ROE, but in the case of a high capital-intensive industry the COC will always be greater and it is advisable for them to reinvest for less borrowings, so how does this thing work, Please enlighten me. Also thank you for the video.
Hello Sir,
Is EIC analyses important while doing forecast?
Bro Amazing videos! One feedback- always you ask people in every video that they can leave if they dont like! They eventually will do it, but I think saying by yourself people will consider this as a negative comment, by yourself and for yourself!
Just an opinion!
Thank you soo much sir for providing such a wonderful content.
We wish you could provide some insights on fundamental analysis.
The video is Actually VERY GOOD. Thank you so much Sir 🙏
Hello Sir , I want to ask you that my forecast sales show negative ,Is it possible?
the quality is something that even MBA schools don't teach, thank you for your service can't wait for it to break millions of view record soon
SIR, A SUGGESTION/QUESTION - WHY NOT MAKE THE FORECASTS HORIZONTALLY, PUTTING THE YEARS JUST ONCE AND PUTTING LINE ITEMS BELOW, INSTEAD OF MAKING ONE TABLE FOR EACH ?
Sir in a supply demand graph, how is the demand or the quantity the independent variable? Can't price also change demand
58:14 Hi parth thanks for sharing knowledge we all appreciate your efforts. I have a query in the forecast formula, the growth % goes down each Estimated years but the company is always trying to grow in revenue through rising growth%. Is this correct estimate???
Thank you so much for making video ❤️ Can you please make video on how to prepare Equity Research Report
@thevaluationschool
Im so blessed that i have came across your channel. I did fmva course twice and not from both the cources i got such depth knowledge. Trust me these formulas i dont even think about anyone who will guide in such detail. As i remember during my second course for which i had paid a hude amount but even after that we hadnt got the clarity im always confused about forecasting as we were taught to use historical average but i was never satisfied with the forecast but today im sure this will change.
Thank you so much. Keep growing and keep sharing knowledge. May god bless you
Sir your videos are very helpful and quite simple yet professional. Kindly make video on IPO valuation and modelling.
Hello sir, unable to download your forecasting file from drive. I need it for screener. Could you please check it
Thank you for your efforts. Absolutely helpful. Keep up the good work.
Best source for learning Financial Modelling.
Thank you for giving this wonderful video sir ! Definitely no one could ever do this kind of a favour.
There are people who also use sustainable growth rate for forecasting .... Can you please tell me the drawbacks of the same ? Or using the SGR is absolutely a wrong concept ?
Sir as u mentioned that we take EBITDA from data sheet bt when I do this EBITDA Is not in my sheet actually so I took from the historical FS sheet ...
Is this correct way to do the forecasting of EBITDA or something else..
And at the end of the video u also mentioned that I case you have any query we can reach over LinkedIn , that's why pinged you a message as well in there .. pls sir guide me on this
Hi. Can you please tell me why are we taking 12 years in calculation of geometric growth? Shouldn't it be 11?
Sir after uploading the sheet on screener whenever I click on Export to Excel I am getting an error of reset Excel customization. How can I solve this issue I am not able to download it in a excel format please help me. And thank you so much for this amazing video.
Sir, Please make a video on Qualitative Forecasting using Capital IQ Pro,
Great learning thus far
yes sir please start the fundaments research series
Great work!! no doubt!!
You can start with
First like how u have done expalning path way to choose a career.
Also would love if u can come with a series which explains a taking a career and the required things for that role in details
Eg- i want to become a analyst
So i need to know fundamental analysis
But in fundamental exactly which things to learn that are used in the industry and also which can benefit i am not doing a job but for my self learning
Technical analysis in details for that .. What to learn etc etc
And then which other courses can be done if i cannot afford CFA or other high cost courses
Sir, Please create videos on Fundamental Analysis of Stocks.
Hi Parth Sir, Hope you are doing well. I reached out to you on LinkedIn. Although I am following you there and able to see your post, I am unable to send a message to you because you haven't yet accepted my invitation to connect. Had query related to Session 5 so awaiting. Thanks in anticipation.
in regression analysis/plot, why is SQUARE of the distance is taken?
Why not the distance is taken, I mean it only makes sense to say it like, the least distance from the line??
You are amazing but just in this video I think Geometric mean would be calculated by raising the power to 1/11
Thank you for teaching us financial modelling. I have one query. If the company has mentioned the topline growth rate for the next 5 years in its management calls, then how should we proceed? Then the forecast formula will not apply right?
Sir I'm not able to get EBITDA in my data sheet what should I do ....I'm stuck at this vdo
Bro still my non financial background your teaching make sense of me .. great spreading ,
i just want to ask one question why most of analyst are from indore in financial market any special education is there or interest i just want to know out of curiosity.... Thanks for great sharing .... i much interested on fundamental analysis in your style of teaching ..pl make a series on this also ...
Start Fundamental Analysis series sir, Interesting and a very hot topic currently I feel...
great work sir , it was so easy and simple to understanding for student like me with b,tech background .u make it really too easy in simple way ,thank u sir
I don’t think ppl can forecast revenue accurately.
It’s better to reference guidance and avg analyst estimates.
But forecasting revenue from scratch is not easy and very subjective.
Hello everyone, in the last part of the video Parth sir did ctrl, alt and enter to create the tables for the new company. That is not working for me. I'll appreciate if somebody is able to help me. Thank you so much
Yours videos are amazing and it provide a lot practical learning of the financial topics. Please create videos on Fundamental and technical analysis also.
Thank you so much for teaching these concepts so well! I have done my masters in finance and nobody has taught this as good as you. THANK YOU SO MUCH
Sir I got deviation in Forcasting episode. I tried to find in both methods which were you done but when I applie the regression formula for Forcasting I got other result whereas when I apply forcaste formula I got another answer
Very good 👍👍👍👍 sir