@Knossos22 Transportation just make up the small part of the game. Steel production, plastic which is the most widely used by product in current economic system. Everything, I mean literally everything would stop.
This is one best talks showing the connection between Oil and economy. The end of cheap oil is a big problem that governments are egnoring lick climate change
Opinions fall within the general realm of particular, fanciful and impractical architectural human personal structures... that it transcends the normal range of common sense regardless of what class WE chooses to live in.....whereas "Statements" from those of the field within their expertise such as Ruben or Chomski or any other mind, cannot speak of common options but only of rural virtues of human truth that a lay mind (?) must put personal prejudices aside to understand. TRUTH BE DAMNED, man.
He kind of is - media personalities have a way of literally repeating their one-liners, it becomes apparent as you watch more talks. Not to knock it - it's how you get your stuff across to the maximum number of people, how you bang the drum and create memes.
look it all looks like doom and gloom but one things for sure regardless of globalization or it's failure (due to oil) - people will still need somewhere to live. that's why I believe investing in property right now is important... 1 for passive income that relies on a basic human need that will continue regardless and 2 it means that you are buying land which you could also use for growing your own food when the delivery trucks stop running
Keep in mind that investment in land may lose value, so you could take a real bath. The way I see it, as Peak Oil bites, people will crowd towards the city centers until it becomes obvious that we'll have to garden to survive.
10 years later 2020 3.85 million barrels and covid and about to press the reset button...This man has informed us well. Thx it is time to act and behave like people rather than robotic consumers
to me, the idea of an oil shortage leading to inflation (not just rising prices of fuel or goods worldwide, but inflation of any particular currency) is not clear. economies require oil to expand or inflate, then when oil supplies drop, credit also evaporates or deflates. this deflating, which has been going on since 1989 in japan and more recently in europe and north america, has rippled through prices of airline stocks, high tech stocks, real estate, financial stocks, and stocks in general.
Another good reason to go for national, and personal independent renewable energy. It may be more expensive now, but the price is basically the same and stable. Technology can bring the basic price of renewables down, and you have a world less in danger of conflict over energy. Plus a better chance of a world more viable for your grandchildren.
we wount. problem is the last oil will be to expensive to get. so the oil is "running out" as in too expensive to get. and therefore leaving it in the ground.
Reductio ad absurdum: Remove all oil from the economy and almost all transportation would halt. The consequences would be too horrifying to contemplate. One of the consequences would be unbelievable inflation. Attempt to spread oil between 4 billion people instead of 1 billion people. What do you get? Inflation. What has happened in the past ten years? About 3 billion people have begun seeking access to the oil previous consumed by 1 billion. What will happen? What happened in 2008 -2010
ok- i get it re interest rates. he's calling interest rates a measure of inflation. however, what happens when resources prices spike is lenders get skeptical of debtors repaying. there's a higher "risk premium" meaning that interest rates offered by lenders rise rapidly. however, conservative lending is not currency inflation nor credit inflation. demanding collateral or co-signers before issuing a loan is not inflation either. open market interest rates are just that! inflation is total A/Rs.
Is rising demand in China, India, and the OPEC nations outstripping the declines in the mature markets? In short is yearly consumption holding constant, increasing, or declining? I've not looked in a while. I'm betting it does not matter. Humanity will combust until there is not enough left to keep the system solvent.... The old economic assumptions are being found to be false, is or will be the take away conclusion. Humanity is just smart enough to be really dangerous!
I have a scooter the gets 90 mpg. I'm American. I spent 3 years driving it all over town and cut my transportation cost almost down to nothing. I saved all that money. I looked at google map and checked out cities and towns in Europe, Japan, China, Everywhere. Everyone is using them on mass except the U.S. and England. It goes 65. It's easy and fun. Most people in the U.S. Look down on me when I probably have more money in the bank than most of them. Unless your in a walking city like NYC, people look down on walkers, bike riders, scooter riders. They live paycheck to paycheck in order to drive a large car. They think it normal and then their the first to bitch when prices go up. Their willing to die in their automobiles before changing their way of life. Don't get me wrong. I have a car that's bought and paid for and I very seldom use it. It will last forever and I want spend my life paying interest to a fat cat. I'll never be homeless or hungry like those idiots who bit off more than they can chew.
@kessass83 The end of the age of oil will come over time... There is still lots of oil flowing. However, the total quantity coming out of the ground will not increase by much, if at all, and the rapidly rising number of people wanting to join in the fossil-hydrocarbon combustion way of life is causing increasing pressures in the economic system. I fear we will witness a break in the system that will result in a global collapse. The changes are so rapid now, that we will witness the outcome.
let's say it's possible to remove oil overnight, what we will have is a pandemonium. the first consequence removing oil is starvation (even before inflation in price of anything set in). 1 calorie of food requires 10 calories of oil in the states. once a lot of people are starved to death, then inflation won't be as a big a problem. demand goes away, supply remains. price drops.
"In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! Good thing I just have me some Diet Dr. Pepper ...
" And 13 million will have to get off the road here " Yes its an easy sum, and many years ago the architects of globalization could have worked this out As well as the loss/export of half way decently paid work for 50% . If they did they show an astounding arrogance about their own people and nations. All this could be seen, and known 30 - 40 years ago as globalization started. That such massive changes were never a central, or great issue in election politics might give the politicians a clue when they bleat; " Why is there lethargy among the voters, why disinterest " I can tell you ; because ever more know from experiences such as globalization that they are not consulted about the major issues of our times. " Dont worry your little head about it" is the political attitude. We have some experts. Yes; they have experts mostly from industry it seems. And we see their solutions for a future. Basically ignorant, arrogant, myopic, poorly informed, and narrow self interest driven. Democracy is dead . Killed off by commerce dictatorship.
One thing that is taboo to talk about is population. the population is three times bigger than in 1960. That means we need and use three times more stuff. When will we need 5 times more stuff. How can the U.S. live this way with 1 billion residents. How can china live with 2 billion residents. Mexicans in the U.S. are trying to become a majority by popping out babies left and right. Texas is looking more like Mexico everyday. We are going to have to get control of population growth. No one need more than two children per family. It's simple math. More people want more stuff. More people will mean more poverty.More poverty means more violence. You can see this change. I lived through it. Look at Texas yearbooks in the 60's and compare them to the present. Compare race equivalents. It's not just race, Iv'e seen cities triple in size. Of coarse resources will dwindle.
+BOB OVER We need and use a lot more than 3x more stuff. Growth of consumption has not been linear, but exponential. It's much much more, much much worse, than just 3x.
Great speech. Jeff Rubin is a great economist i feel sorry for those who still dont see the bigger picture of problem of peak oil. Thanks for upload.
He sounds eerily like Jack Nicholson in Easy Rider. Great speaker and refreshing to not have to listen to the economic news narrated and spun by CNN.
Nice lecture Jeff.
@Knossos22
Transportation just make up the small part of the game. Steel production, plastic which is the most widely used by product in current economic system. Everything, I mean literally everything would stop.
This is one best talks showing the connection between Oil and economy. The end of cheap oil is a big problem that governments are egnoring lick climate change
Opinions fall within the general realm of particular, fanciful and impractical architectural human personal structures... that it transcends the normal range of common sense regardless of what class WE chooses to live in.....whereas "Statements" from those of the field within their expertise such as Ruben or Chomski or any other mind, cannot speak of common options but only of rural virtues of human truth that a lay mind (?) must put personal prejudices aside to understand. TRUTH BE DAMNED, man.
He kind of is - media personalities have a way of literally repeating their one-liners, it becomes apparent as you watch more talks. Not to knock it - it's how you get your stuff across to the maximum number of people, how you bang the drum and create memes.
What about living closer together and riding bikes more, and walking more. People will be healthier.
look it all looks like doom and gloom but one things for sure regardless of globalization or it's failure (due to oil) - people will still need somewhere to live.
that's why I believe investing in property right now is important... 1 for passive income that relies on a basic human need that will continue regardless and 2 it means that you are buying land which you could also use for growing your own food when the delivery trucks stop running
Keep in mind that investment in land may lose value, so you could take a real bath. The way I see it, as Peak Oil bites, people will crowd towards the city centers until it becomes obvious that we'll have to garden to survive.
10 years later 2020 3.85 million barrels and covid and about to press the reset button...This man has informed us well. Thx it is time to act and behave like people rather than robotic consumers
to me, the idea of an oil shortage leading to inflation (not just rising prices of fuel or goods worldwide, but inflation of any particular currency) is not clear. economies require oil to expand or inflate, then when oil supplies drop, credit also evaporates or deflates. this deflating, which has been going on since 1989 in japan and more recently in europe and north america, has rippled through prices of airline stocks, high tech stocks, real estate, financial stocks, and stocks in general.
What about living closer together and riding bikes more, and walking more.
Another good reason to go for national, and personal independent renewable energy. It may be more expensive now, but the price is basically the same and stable. Technology can bring the basic price of renewables down, and you have a world less in danger of conflict over energy. Plus a better chance of a world more viable for your grandchildren.
we wount. problem is the last oil will be to expensive to get. so the oil is "running out" as in too expensive to get. and therefore leaving it in the ground.
Reductio ad absurdum:
Remove all oil from the economy and almost all transportation would halt. The consequences would be too horrifying to contemplate. One of the consequences would be unbelievable inflation.
Attempt to spread oil between 4 billion people instead of 1 billion people. What do you get? Inflation. What has happened in the past ten years? About 3 billion people have begun seeking access to the oil previous consumed by 1 billion.
What will happen? What happened in 2008 -2010
ok- i get it re interest rates. he's calling interest rates a measure of inflation. however, what happens when resources prices spike is lenders get skeptical of debtors repaying. there's a higher "risk premium" meaning that interest rates offered by lenders rise rapidly. however, conservative lending is not currency inflation nor credit inflation. demanding collateral or co-signers before issuing a loan is not inflation either. open market interest rates are just that! inflation is total A/Rs.
Is rising demand in China, India, and the OPEC nations outstripping the declines in the mature markets? In short is yearly consumption holding constant, increasing, or declining? I've not looked in a while. I'm betting it does not matter. Humanity will combust until there is not enough left to keep the system solvent.... The old economic assumptions are being found to be false, is or will be the take away conclusion. Humanity is just smart enough to be really dangerous!
I have a scooter the gets 90 mpg. I'm American. I spent 3 years driving it all over town and cut my transportation cost almost down to nothing. I saved all that money. I looked at google map and checked out cities and towns in Europe, Japan, China, Everywhere. Everyone is using them on mass except the U.S. and England. It goes 65. It's easy and fun. Most people in the U.S. Look down on me when I probably have more money in the bank than most of them. Unless your in a walking city like NYC, people look down on walkers, bike riders, scooter riders. They live paycheck to paycheck in order to drive a large car. They think it normal and then their the first to bitch when prices go up. Their willing to die in their automobiles before changing their way of life. Don't get me wrong. I have a car that's bought and paid for and I very seldom use it. It will last forever and I want spend my life paying interest to a fat cat. I'll never be homeless or hungry like those idiots who bit off more than they can chew.
@kessass83 The end of the age of oil will come over time... There is still lots of oil flowing. However, the total quantity coming out of the ground will not increase by much, if at all, and the rapidly rising number of people wanting to join in the fossil-hydrocarbon combustion way of life is causing increasing pressures in the economic system. I fear we will witness a break in the system that will result in a global collapse. The changes are so rapid now, that we will witness the outcome.
let's say it's possible to remove oil overnight, what we will have is a pandemonium. the first consequence removing oil is starvation (even before inflation in price of anything set in). 1 calorie of food requires 10 calories of oil in the states. once a lot of people are starved to death, then inflation won't be as a big a problem. demand goes away, supply remains. price drops.
"In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink! "In a world of triple digit oil prices" Drink!
Good thing I just have me some Diet Dr. Pepper ...
Ecology welcomes very high oil prices.
De-globalize. Greenhouse gas import tax must be the way.
" And 13 million will have to get off the road here " Yes its an easy sum, and many years ago the architects of globalization could have worked this out As well as the loss/export of half way decently paid work for 50% . If they did they show an astounding arrogance about their own people and nations.
All this could be seen, and known 30 - 40 years ago as globalization started. That such massive changes were never a central, or great issue in election politics might give the politicians a clue when they bleat; " Why is there lethargy among the voters, why disinterest " I can tell you ; because ever more know from experiences such as globalization that they are not consulted about the major issues of our times. " Dont worry your little head about it" is the political attitude. We have some experts. Yes; they have experts mostly from industry it seems. And we see their solutions for a future.
Basically ignorant, arrogant, myopic, poorly informed, and narrow self interest driven.
Democracy is dead . Killed off by commerce dictatorship.
One thing that is taboo to talk about is population. the population is three times bigger than in 1960. That means we need and use three times more stuff. When will we need 5 times more stuff. How can the U.S. live this way with 1 billion residents. How can china live with 2 billion residents. Mexicans in the U.S. are trying to become a majority by popping out babies left and right. Texas is looking more like Mexico everyday. We are going to have to get control of population growth. No one need more than two children per family. It's simple math. More people want more stuff. More people will mean more poverty.More poverty means more violence. You can see this change. I lived through it. Look at Texas yearbooks in the 60's and compare them to the present. Compare race equivalents. It's not just race, Iv'e seen cities triple in size. Of coarse resources will dwindle.
+BOB OVER
We need and use a lot more than 3x more stuff. Growth of consumption has not been linear, but exponential. It's much much more, much much worse, than just 3x.
did he just actually say we will never run out of oil?? HAHAHA IS HE OUT OF HIS GOURD?