Win Now or You're Gone: Rich Eisen on the New Reality for Young NFL QBs
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 มี.ค. 2024
- Rich Eisen reacts to the new reality facing young NFL QBs such as Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones.
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I think part of it is that guys like Brock Purdy and CJ Stroud wreck the curve. Owners/GMs of other teams see them thrive immediately and think “why isn’t our guy doing that??” without much thought or insight
Stroud maybe. Purdy is surrounded by great players.
Justin Herbert also came into his first start with literally no preparation and instantly looked like a veteran NFL QB, which very few suspected would happen before the draft. You are right, the outliers give a false impression of what is possible with rookie QB's who mostly never reach expectations, especially in the first round. Plus a lot of them get dropped into terrible situations because the worst teams obviously get first dibs on them.
Purdy isn't a qb that is coveted by anyone besides 49er fans. He's not him.
@@jasonc4641they ignore this fact. Purdy plays with a truckload of pro bowlers. Also what Qb hasn’t thrived in Kyle shannahans system. Unfortunately not every rookie can have him.
The problem is the 49ers had this exact situation in the same locker room. That's why Trae Lance is holding a clipboard in Dallas now. SF had the fortune to ship out a bad pick because of the fortunate pick of Purdy without much thought or lost sleep. If Purdy could do it, why can't any of these other prospects chosen 260 slots above him do it too?
Respect for Goff just surged.
Especially for calling rich out! Love Rich, but Goff was spot on about media putting heavy expectations on these guys
@@tombosley3048 agreed. I'm a Steelers fan and while I recognize that Kenny Pickett had a lot left to prove, he'd shown enough flashes that I really thought he deserved more time to develop. But I guess teams aren't willing to give that time anymore unless the guy is damn near perfect out the gates.
That’s my QB!
The cream rises to the top! Macho Man Randy Savage!
@@kennya5165but they need to give the cream ample time to rise.
its always suprising the draft captial and effort spent on getting a top 10 QB and then teams surround them with suspect lines, mediocre weapons and a revolving door at OC but expect winning results....smh
If you don't have a good offensive line, you are NOT going to have success at QB. People always look to Mahomes and say, "We need to find the next Patrick Mahomes." They don't realize that Mahomes came into a great situation: World class coach, great weapons, great offensive line, and he was able to sit for almost a year. If you don't have that situation, you are not going to have a Mahomes clone.
I think it’s all a repercussion of trading picks. If teams build the surrounding cast as you are alluding to which I agree with, then they will most likely become decent to the point of having a pick from 12-20. It’s very hard to get a high ceiling qb in that pick range. So they feel forced to flip the agenda and grab the qb early and fill the roster with those other picks. The problem is that even if a qb is talented, they usually struggle and get written off before the rest of the team comes around.
Listening to Chicago media they pushed the narrative that a star QB is all you need to win. They act like the rest of the team does not matter.
It’s not surprising at all. The worst teams get the highest picks. Theyre the “worst” for a reason.
10000%
How about drafting college QBs with 3 or more starting seasons behind them....and not just one or two spectacular seasons against mediocre competition???
Zach Wilson played 3 seasons, I always thought that wasn't enough either, 4 or 5 years, I don't see why they can't play that much.
Terrible take
I don't think 3 seasons is requisite. Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes didn't start in three seasons, but at the least I agree that one great season probably isn't enough.
The quarterback position is the most important position, as such, quarterback needy teams become desperate to find one that can carry them over the hump, and in a pass heavy and offensive focused NFL, you need someone like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, etc. to win it all. As a result, teams are willing to take the risk of getting an unproven prospect with the potential of being a top 5 QB than someone that is a proven top 15.
How many seasons of college did Tom Brady have in Michigan?
Brady: 29 Games, 61.9% Completion percentage, 4,773 yards, 30 TDs, 17 INTs mostly in '98 & '99 Michigan seasons.
Sure, he played in the Big 10, but was a 6th round pick.
How about Ryan Leaf (WSU): 31 Games, 54% Completion percentage, 7,102 yards, 58 TDs, 23 INTs from '95-'97
Or Jamarcus Russell (LSU): 36 Games, 61.9% Completion percentage, 6,625 yards, 52 TDs, 21 INTs from '04-'06
Personally, I think it’s the fact that QB contracts now take up such a significant % of the salary cap. Your QB needs to be exceptional right away so you can surround them with talent and win during the rookie contract. Most QBs are not elite enough to justify using up such a significant percentage of the salary cap except guys like Burrow, Herbert or Mahomes so it’s easier to reset the clock and try again.
Yeah. Let's look at Daniel Jones, would you pay that much to jones? I wouldn't. But I'd take him on a rookie deal. That's why these rookies are dealt. They are cheap so they are able to be traded while they are cheap. And maybe they are proven to be backups by year 4. That's possible too.
Bingo. Only rational comment here, 100% correct
Good point
There is a reason these teams have top 5 picks, the problem is NOT the QB
I agree QBs really only account for probably 30% of a teams w/l record on average...think about defense on the field half 45%of games special teams 5 percent and then the other 10 players on offense habe an effect
They bears top five pick came via them fleecing the Panthers. U can say the bears front office failed justin. But truthfully Justin and many other osu QBs never have what it takes to turn into Hof QBs in the nfl. Jets? Aaron got hurt. So it was because of the QB. What u typed might apply to the patriots. As bill was too stubborn. So yeah, what u typed didn't make much sense
Sometimes it is lol.
Greebay does it right. Favre to Rogers then Rogers to Love . Let rookies sit and learn it's simple
You also need to keep the same coach and system through that time also stability is everything which is big in how Green Bay develops QBs. When they drafted Love and Rodgers it was early into McCarthy and Lafleurs tenure so you knew when they were sitting they had stability at the head coaching position until they started. If you're constantly switching playbooks and coaching staffs it's detrimental to the players ability to master everything. That's why for example a team like Chicago this year not firing Eberflus was a bad move because if the Bears struggle this year and he gets fired then Caleb and their team is back to square one. Start with a new coach, new system with the new QB your better set up that way.
@@qaxcgyujmI agree, the coaching changes constantly doesn’t help either. Green Bay is just built different too. We don’t have an owner making irrational decisions based on profits and they are patient. I still would think that other teams would want to copy or at least try and do what we are doing, but then again the last two drafted QBS were drafted in the low 20s and not 1 overall or even top 10. I have watched 3 qbs my entire time as being a Packers fan, not counting when rodgers got hurt, so 3 season starting QBs if I am being technical, I do sometimes think about how wild that is when the Bears are constantly changing QB lol.
Talent still matters. A lot of these young QBs simply aren’t good, and they wouldn’t be if they had years behind a Favre or Rodgers.
Josh Allen spent his first two off seasons working out with Jordan Palmer. That was instrumental in his development.
He did the work and then some! Didn't just sit there. So glad he is our guy!!!
All of these top young QB's work with Jordan Palmer or another QB "guru" nowadays. It comes down to the QB himself at the end of the day whether he has it or not, and Josh certainly had it.
Has he developed?
@@Tubalcain422Do you watch the NFL?
True, but being a 6'5" 250lb alien freak of nature also had something to do with it. Jordan Palmer or not, Allen was going to be awesome no matter what.
Since they put the cap on rookie contracts, it makes it easier for teams to cut loose early on any top draft picks.
Yeah, that was a bad decision to cap rookie contracts.
They had to after the stunt Jamarcus Russell pulled.
Exactly
They should do what the Packers do and have them sit behind a guy for a season so they can learn the ropes rather than just throwing them in the deep end and saying sink or swim
@@midwestmountainmanwhat stunt? Did he draft himself?
Part of the problem is the continuous changes at coach/OC these teams do, how many did Baker Mayfield go through just in Cleveland alone??!!! They can't expect these young kids to be able to learn a new system every year their first 3-4 years and make much of any real progress!!!! Continuity, repetitiveness, these things matter more than a lot of fans even realize!!!!
yeah but continuity only helps when you have the right guys in place to begin with lol unless you think the Browns downfall was because they didn't keep Freddie Kitchens??
Baker's problem in Cleveland was a shoulder injury that he tried to play through, then the Browns got sadly desperate as they're prone to do and went throwing everything they had at Deshaun Watson.... like yeah having stability is obviously ideal but it's not an automatic excuse for everything either, just as many cases these days of a new coach/coordinator coming in and guys instantly having career years etc
@@mattcarberry368 the browns had a 13 month stretch with 3 different HCs (not counting interim). That's absolute chaos and even Joe Thomas in his primed called it out for the continual reset that killed an opportunity for progress it was. The Browns make a lot of mistakes, but rushing to flip the table and start over from scratch is definitely one of them.
@@mattcarberry368 no, the mistake they made after making Gregg Williams the interim HC and Kitchens the OC was Changing That, the defense already loved GW and the offense was doing good but then they ditched Gregg Williams and put too much on Kitchens plate that he wasn't ready for! I do like Stefanski so don't think I'm complaining about our current HC I'm just using my Browns and Mayfield as an example of why it takes some of these guys Years and Multiple Trades to land somewhere that works for them. I hate the Steelers but I think that was the best spot for Fields because Tomlin ain't going nowhere anytime soon so Fields will have a real chance to develop
This happened to Alex Smith in SF.
they are giving up on QBs early because of the structured rookie contracts. The investment is not significant. If he busts just cut him, try again, and reset that clock. You couldn't do that when high draft picks made top dollar.
the problem with that is if you dont have a good oline or wr ect.... the result is going to be the same when you bring in the next person.
Yeah it feels like there needs to be some kind of middle-ground. No more Jamarcus Russell/Matthew Stafford contracts, but the current setup doesn't seem ideal.
@@zesolodar It's why teams like Chicago and NY Jets burn through young QBs.
@zesolodar but Joe Burtow proved that wrong. He went to the Superbowl with one of the leagues worst offensive lines that year. But I do agree that some young QBs do need more
@@LdyVder i heard a commentator said its like buying a new car. you buy a new car and when the issues arise you sell it and buy a new one and when you get the new one when the issues arise you sell it again rinse and repeat
The good thing about the Bears drafting Caleb is that they'll get the first pick again next year!
No, too much talent on that team. They have a good defense, and way too many receivers
@@richfarfugnuven6308 Well, I've heard that a million times before and it's failed. We'll see.
@joeking433 I'm a Broncos fan. There is no way that the Bears are worse than the Broncos. We have no talent...
@@richfarfugnuven6308 You make a good point! I can't think of anyone worse than the Broncos, TBH.
🤣🤣🤣
A full discussion about draft and develop without mentioning the Packers once is stunning.
FTP
Its the pay structure with rookie contracts being so much of an advantage over paying a Y4-Y5 quarterback, even for a mid-level QB. Add in the importance of a QB in getting a team out of the hell of continually being in the middle of the draft (picks 10-20), it is easy to see why teams a so quick to move on as they are incentivized to move on.
It seems a great rebuild strategy would be to just draft a late round cheap rookie QB, lose for a couple of years (gaining a couple of high draft picks) while trading expensive players for more draft picks, while piling up cap money, and reload the roster with young players on rookie contracts and stud free agents - and THEN spend one of those high draft picks on a stud QB who joins a team with solid D, solid O line, and weapons. 2-years and done.
I do agree it’s impatience and a lot of the pressure comes from media and fans but after 3 years there shouldn’t be any questions about basic skills that a pro QB should have.
NFL needs a summer league
I've been saying that for years. No stupid USFL garbage. Have an NFL minor league (or as you call it, a summer league) that plays from like March to July.
These kids don’t even wanna play in their bowl games what makes you think they gonna play in a summer league lol
@@thisme3138 An NFL contract, maybe? lol
@@Kube_Dog u act like they don’t have contracts in college and that doesn’t stop them from sittin out of their bowl games no prospect who values himself is gonna wanna play in a summer league nor do they have too teams will take them with first round picks and pay them plenty of money to play in the actual nfl
@@Kube_Dog I think you have the wrong idea about what summer league is it’s where top nba prospects who were just drafted to teams show off their skills with other players who haven’t had a chance to really prove themselves or need more practice and wanna show the effort often times 1st round picks including the 1st overall pick will play in summer league no college football players entering the nfl will agree to that they would rather just be selected and play in the regular season of the nfl like it’s been the last few decades
If I was an incoming QB, first priority would be going to a team with a good offensive line. It's not rocket science.
Too bad it’s not up to the drafted player.
Teams with good Offensive lines don't need to draft quarterbacks.
The key is to have the QB sit at least one full year. The jump from college to pro is huge! You also need to surround the QB with quality coaches and players.
This is so counter-productive. The specific example I know of is Len Dawson. He knocked around for several season with 3 or 4 teams until he got to the Chiefs and his old coach from Purdue, Hank Stram. Then his career took off. Heck, even Mahomes sat a season behind Alex Smith, who Mahomes credits with getting him ready for the NFL.
Lenny the Cool was a great man.
@@YesManVegasBaybay He sure was.
Len Dawson wasn't getting paid +15% of the cap.
@@johnbox271 Don't think a cap even existed in his day.
@@bevinboulder5039 You are correct. Low pay was the norm back then, which allowed the Chiefs to take a chance on a 1st round bust. "The fifth overall selection by the Pittsburgh Steelers, but he was unable to make an impact. Then traded to the Cleveland Browns and before being released after the 1961 season, having completed only 21 passes for 204 yards, two touchdowns and five Ints in his five seasons of NFL play."
I believe with the current pay structure teams are very unlikely to follow this path today.
I believe it’s a combination of teams not willing to pay the absurd amount of money these QBs are asking, the lack of development for the position and a lack of talented Quarterback coaching .
Asking? QB's arent asking for anything nor do they create the market. The money is always going to be there so it either goes to the billionaire owner or the player and id much rather see it go to the player.
@@axe2grind244 The money doesn't come out of the owners pockets. Its cap money, which mean other players on the team get less money.
The common thing here is that, head coaches are trying to save their jobs, they simply don’t have time to babysit anymore. Tua would have been in the same scenario if Flores was still there.
So your saying it's couching?
@@terryromines6539 It is coaching to a certain level. Again, take a look at Tua and what coach McDaniel has been able to do with him for the last two years.
Tua is in a sense lucky that Fitzpatrick took a lot of snaps when Tua was a rookie, and "lucky" he was injured a few times to keep him from playing.
Keep in mind, when Tua got healthy late in his rookie year, Flores started him over Fitz.
What happened to learning under a vet? Why is everyone so quick to throw a rookie into the fire? It’s not like Rodgers didn’t learn anything from Favre. Idk seems counterproductive
Professional teams and fans have no patience when it comes to player development anymore. It took Jim Plunkett eight years and three teams to begin playing up to his potential. He went on to lead two Raiders teams to super bowl wins.
Great call back! Many other examples in the '70s. How about Griese having Earl Morral as a mentor/teacher/old pro/backup and starter.
In Fields case the Bears didn't start putting together the tools to build an offense until they decided to trade Fields.
Would have been nice had they done more than acquiring DJ Moore, they needed so much more.
I can't blame Fields for not winning in Chicago, I can blame poor coaching decisions for not winning.
The NFL needs to get back to letting young QB's sit a year or two instead of expecting them to win from the jump, very few QB's are NFL ready from day one.
I feel like things changed around the time of Peyton Manning's rookie season. It used to be more common that your QB would sit out the first year and learn behind the starter. Now your 1st rounder QB is expected to play right away and produce in years 2 and 3.
I don't know if it's coincidence or not, but Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes all were backups their rookie season. Going back a few generations, Elway split time his rookie year as starter and backup. Montana was a backup until year 3. Marino started his rookie as the backup.
And yet, by year 2 or 3, all these guys you mentioned were bona fide starters. Manning had an underwhelming rookie year, but did well after that. Brady won a SB year 2. Rodgers won a SB within a couple years after being the full time starter. Mahomes already has 4 SB appearances. Marino was in the SB his second year. Elway was losing his first of five SBs two seasons after Marino's only appearance. Finally, Joe Montana won a SB 3 years after being drafted.
Whether it was the team, coaches, players, or some fortuitous combination of all; by the third year of being a full time starter, the teams knew who was worth keeping around as their QB. The 2021 draft class three years later is simply not good.
@@pace1195 But isn't that the question? Would the '21 QB's have been good if they had been able to sit and learn in year 1? Unfortunately, we'll never know for sure. (And I'll add Jalen Hurts to the initial commenter's list of successful QB's who sat for most/all of their rookie year.)
@@jeffstanley6013 Most likely, or maybe by happenstance they would have been just as bad. You are correct that we'll never know. You don't get a Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, or CJ Stroud every year in the draft.
That doesn't stop coaches and GMs from drafting their "savior" QB and throwing them into the fire anyway. They always hope these rookies will figure it out by year three. Maybe the '21 draft class was just a bad one regardless.
Everyone wants a QB who is phenomenal like Stroud was for the Texans this year. Problem is, you get a guy like that maybe once a decade if you're lucky. Teams need to work harder at developing starting QB's period.
The problem starts in college, QBs need to stay longer to get the reps (should need to graduate).
Ha! Goff called him out!!! He definitely was NOT joking there either!
It's a disposable world now. No one repairs TVs anymore. Whatever doesn't work gets thrown out and replaced. Throwing something away is easier than trying to fix it. That's the problem here.
blame the fans for not packing the house or watching the game of a team that is developing players and loses consistently, blame companies for making things so cheap it doesn't pay to fix them.... i agree there is no development in anything but we need to look in the mirror 1st
so are you still watching a 24 inch tube TV that takes up an entire corner of your living room and weighs 200 lbs? or do you have a nice big flat screen mounted on the wall lol
it's not about us living in a short attention span instant satisfaction throwaway culture, it's just a reality that it doesn't take 5 years to figure out if a guy has "got it" or not like it used to... the pro concepts and the college game are more aligned overall than they ever have been, and prospects have far more reps and specialized training before they even get to college than prospects of generations past ever even had access to
it's a simple fact of talent evaluation in the modern NFL that 99% of the time, fairly early on, you can usually tell if a guy has elite traits to work with, if he's "just another guy", or if he's completely outmatched and doesn't belong
the "5 year development plans" of yesteryear aren't applicable in todays landscape, there's simply too much talent and too much competition and too much money at stake compared to the old days... if it takes you 5 years to figure out a prospect sucks, then it simply means you suck at evaluating talent lol
It'a also because sending players to the bin creates more ratings than simply saying "let's see how he develops".
@@mattcarberry368 Offenses like the west coast takes a QB three seasons to fully get it. Now, if they don't get it year one, they're done even though the team around them is horrible.
Don't want to pay someone 50 mil per yr to develop or get fixed. QB'S did this to themselves with these huge contracts.
I remember everyone said Trevor Lawrence was this generational talent maybe in college football. It really hasn't transformed like that in the NFL maybe this year he will finally breakout.
Unless you're Easton Stick, that guy got secrets on the chargers organization 😂
It's because everyone is looking for another Mahomes. He's a unicorn, and you can't beat Mahomes if you don't have someone of that caliber. Also, he was ready to go in year 2, but that's not the norm because he isn't normal; he's exceptional.
You could even go back to 2012 when Andrew Luck, RGIII and Russell Wilson all led their teams to the playoffs as rookies. The idea that teams should use the rookie contract to build around became huge. So developing a veteran who is going to demand veteran money isn't in the cards.
Rich “Back in my day” Eisen
Michigan/Jets fan boy that admittedly doesn't watch the ALL 22
There's nothing new under the sun. 😎
Glad Rich mentioned NFL Europe. The league needs outlets like that to help player development in general, not just QB development. Dante Hall, "the Human Joystick," owes a lot to the program iirc.
The thing with Fields is that literally, if we weren't the #1 pick, we probably would've kept him until at least year 5. But Caleb has the potential to be better in year 1 than justin was year 3. If you're Poles, you take that chance.
Exactly!
@@popsmoke68w4 What if Fields plus the haul would have been better than getting Caleb. It is a game of what if but still something to wonder about. Yes. Caleb is probably going to be better than Justin Fields but not sure if Caleb would have been better than the combined picks we would have gotten if we traded away the #1 pick.
Plus, even if he isn’t actually better in year 1 than Justin will be in year 4. You still have a very high likelihood that he will be better than Justin was year 1 & 2. While also providing you the extra 3 years of a cheap rookie contract that you cannot get back with Justin. So even if he isn’t immediately better than Justin, it’s still worth it to take Caleb and run with it as best you can. And the odds Caleb is not going to be immediately better than Justin, are very low. Both, because of the individual players themselves &, because of the situations surrounding each of them during their tenure.
And you can always just spend next years #1 overall on a different QB. 😂😂
@georgemitchell1705 i was litterally going over that same thing with a buddy of mine. Its a great point! I just feel like Fields needs way too much to be perfect around him for us to be great. It wont be that way all the time... same with any qb but the potential i see is way better with Caleb. IMO. thanks for reply, 🐻 down
The NFL is a quarterback-led league and if you do not have an elite quarterback, you will not be a Super Bowl contender. Besides, is it really all that different now than it was in the past? I remember the Bears drafted Cade McNown with the 12th overall pick in the first round in 1999 and they got rid of him after two seasons. The Oakland Raiders picked Jamarcus Russell with the number one overall pick in the draft in 2007 and he was done within three years. The Bengals selected Akili Smith with the number three overall pick in the draft back in 1999 and he was done within three or four years. There are plenty more first-round quarterbacks who teams got rid of after two to four seasons throughout the 1990s and 2000s.
Yeah, the talent level gap between Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson compared to guys like Mac Jones is so significant that teams are just wasting time trying to make guys like Mac into viable NFL quarterbacks. 🤷🏻♂️
Yes, but those QB’s you mention were truly terrible. Justin Fields isn’t terrible, he’s just not in the top half of QBs in the league. He still has value.
@@Matt92Machineas a backup yeah. You won’t win a Super Bowl with a bottom half guy. Unless that bottom half guy plays like a top guy (like Nick foles in 17)
@@Matt92Machine nah he’s terrible, worth a 6th round pick
Its because of the contracts. If you arent good by the time your rookie contract is over, teams dont want to pay you 40 mill. And Daniel Jones is an example of the flip side where they gave him time and now there stuck paying a guy they dont believe in. So bc qb contracts are so crazy, if your not elite teams rather try again then have a guy who ok making 40 mil
Huge Mistake on the giants. They should have told him on his 3/4 year. "Danny sorry but your not what we want in a qb" we're moving on" Cruel yes but it's reality.
@arnoldoliver8050 See I disagree with you and I'm a die hard Giants fan.
1) That is the market for Qbs.
2) No way you were moving on from Daniel after your first playoff win in over ten years. Not realistic imo
3) The contract was structured in a way were if he had a bad 2023 (which obviously he did) you only had one more season before you could cut him. Imo the contract was genius bc of that. If he improved you got a bargain and if he got worse you have an easy out. Win win for the giants.
This is just my opinion but in reality I still think it was a good contract. Obviously he played like garbage but the contract was made with that safety net in mind
I had been speculating something like this for awhile when it became clear that we were going down a road of the pass-heavy game, which was that ironically, QBs have become more expendable and not less.
Main issue is, none of them had the opportunity to actually sit behind a great veteran QB
Exactly 💯
That's a very fair point, I'll fully admit I'm a Packer fan and the way we've had our QBs sit has worked well for us. I can't say for sure that's the solution but it has seemed to make sense for us and work out in our favor.
I still contend that this is all the eventual result of one Dan The Man Marino. He took the entire philosophy of the NFL and dropped it on its head. He came straight out of the box as the best passer the league has ever seen. It didn’t immediately change everything, but it did build into this over time. And the more time passes, the less patient people seem to be.
same with Mahomes .. straight out of the box he was great
@@justthrowitgolf"They don't know I study film..." -Patrick Mahomes
BS, ever hear of a guy named Broadway Joe? Truth is that they have been chasing the Franchise QB Fantasy since forever.
@@justthrowitgolf Well straight out of the box and marinated on the sidelines for a while!
@@justthrowitgolf Mahomes sat for a year. We didn’t see him play straight out of the box. Dan literally came straight out of the box.
Jordan Love got the benefit of sitting. Looking good so far.
There is one issue more important than the others that no one acknowledges. You are very much impacted by the team you go to and media wants to act like you are the same player no matter where you go. Your rookie year is crucial to development.
Brock Purdy is easily the best QB of both the 21' and 22' draft classes.
TLaw is still wayyy better
Purdys playoff record is better than every QB in the NFL except Mahomes and Rodgers.
And he is still on rookie contract. Elite QB!
He plays on a stack team. He didn't look great in the superbowl
He might be, but we won't really know until he is being paid +$50M per year, and the team is a little bit shorter on talent.
Rich would never say anything positive about the Packers front office - but this is one of the most unintentionally Pro-Gutekunst videos I've ever seen lol
Great comments Rich, Jordon Love got a couple years of development/clipboard observation thanks to Aaron Rogers . Without that would he have made it in GB?
Goff is right , Rich ,its people like you that hype these guys up soo much that if they come out and do not play like a 5th year mahomes everybody thinks their a failure……you’re all doing it again with this years class coming out. Give these guys a chance to develop.
There can only be a handful of great quarterbacks at any given time in the NFL!
Clearly the coaches and trainers have a much better understanding of a players talent than talking heads.
The Sam Howell trade made no sense. They grabbed Marcus Mariota in free agency to compete for the starting position. They could have used that #2 pick on Marvin Harrison Jr. with Terry McLaurin on the opposite side of the field.,, would have been nice to watch.
You know, this goes beyond the QB position. The rookie contracts are written as such that they really do incentivize teams to focus less on development and more on analyzing new talent to be drafted at a lower premium especially towards the end of the contracts period. QB just gets highlighted because they are at the top of the pay scale. Another issue is that we often think of the teams as family owned businesses when in reality they are corporations and act like corporations which means they look at people as expendable.
Owners and GMs are far too impatient. It makes little to no sense, financially and in terms of ROI, to give up so soon in most situations.
It's a consequence of not having a minor league system like hockey or baseball where you can send a struggling rookie for a couple of weeks so they can get their mojo back together.
@@Marx_Ramonenba has a g league tho
we have 40 years of data that says you are what you are by year 3 or even 25 starts. these guys have all had 40. they don’t get the game at a high level.
That's exactly because it makes financial sense: after year three, you have to commit to 5th yo, before a big contract. If the franchise has serious doubts (Bears) AND hold a high pick, cutting the guy and drafting again makes perfect financial sense.
@@shake6321 because once the fans sour on a player it’s impossible to come back but Alex Smith Tannehill and Geno all did so it’s possible
There isn’t many above average veterans to sit behind anymore… aside from Rodgers, Wilson (maybe), Stafford (maybe), etc
Rodgers too.
it's not every team, kc developed mahomes while he sat his first year, lamar coming out of college wasn't as refined a passer he is today. however a LOT of teams would rather move off of a young qb year after year after year if they don't show signs of being the next "mahomes" the next "brady" the next "manning."
the way these teams view it is that it's more cost effective for them to keep drafting a qb and keep moving off them in one year until they hit on one of those generational talents.
not saying fields is the next "mahomes"/no doubt 1st ballot type of guy, but with how athletically gifted he is it's crazy to think that he can't be a franchise guy if he's developed.
KC and Buffalo did it right.
@@jeremytaft8247 they 100% did. there's obviously exceptions al la zach wilson where it's obvious they just don't have it, but it just seems like teams are more willing to just move off a guy in a year if he doesn't show signs of being a future hall of famer by week 4 of his rookie year which is insane to me.
@@offtiltxz2718 Well in Wilson cases the NY media cause so much of a stir that the coaches had to worry about their jobs more than developing players not saying Wilson’s gonna be great, but New York media did not help at all
@@jeremytaft8247 that is true. big market media does play a huge role for teams in big markets, and maybe that was a big factor with zach that it got to his head and affected his play. if that's the case then it opens up another dialogue of if you can't block out the noise then maybe the lights are just to bright for you. i by no means am saying that zach is the worst guy to ever throw a football, but i am saying that as someone who loves the game it pains me to see a guy with as much arm talent as him not be able to shut out the noise.
Great points.
Justin Fields is the only QB I am aware of, in history, that went from a passer in college to a runner in the NFL. He went from 484 rushing yards as a sophomore to 1143 in his second year as a pro.
He was always capable of running and was a true dual threat QB. But in the league when you’re surrounded by players that aren’t good you do what you can to try to have success. He found success running in the league so that’s what he leaned on. These teams do a piss poor job of coaching and a lot of guys that coach are not up to par.
It comes down to shiny object syndrome. If you’re not throwing for 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns in your first 2 years, they’re ready to cast you to the side for a gamble on the proposed next big thing. It’s all fast food disposable heroes.
I would add the overeaction nature of sports these days from us fans to pundits. You do well one moment, you're suddenly the greatest and if you don't the next, then you become the all time bust. It's hard to build or gauge consistency when we have a yoyo approach to sports.
Excellent take
Rich, fandom impatience like that of yours contributed to this phenomenon against young drafted QBs.
The Jets did nothing to help develop Zach Wilson. Every decisions they made virtually failed around him from poor or injured O-line, play calling to a lack of WRs. And the fans and bad head coach expected him to carry the team after 1-2 seasons. 32 games in the NFL, even if it occurred over 3 seasons, is less than two full seasons of reps in the NFL.
Why would Justin Fields who watched how the Jets treated Zach Wilson over 32 NFL games, want to come to the Jets?
Has everyone take noticed that Ryan Poole really didn't like Justin Fields. He played in public as though he likes Justin Fields but in reality he doesn't.
based on? oh right nothing but your feelings lol.
He would've drafted Bryce/CJ last year if that were the case
It has nothing to do with it. As DJ Moore so eloquently put it, "business is business."
Fields sucks who cares
One of the problems is that too many of these NFL guys “watch film” but don't watch college football.
Sam Howell, Mitch Turbisky, Anthony Richardson, and Zack Wilson, college fans knew they weren't going to be good but the NFL crowd was obsessed with “the tools.”
most of the teams that drafted a top10 QB had no good OC to pair. Salah had no OC, the Jags had Urban Meyer, Titans had Vrabel, Chicago Bears, Belichick had Patricia at OC??????
Fields doesn't have the processing speed to be an NFL starter. It's that simple. He has everything else you could want but carries a fatal, non-coachable flaw.
Yes and this is why he is so frustrating to watch.
How do you know this. Are you watching the coaches tape. Are you in team meetings? It's noway a fan can know what's going on with a qb. It could be his qb coach. It could be the OC or it could be him
Fields had the highest QB aptitude score ever at the combine. Kid's not slow, it's definitely coaching.
@@hjayc414 And C.J. Stroud had the lowest QB aptitude score ever, and he immediately showed fast processing elite skills. That test means nothing, C.J. broke its validity for all-time now.
@@hjayc414he is absolutely slow
Three years is enough time to prove you can't do it.
Yeah do u think love would be great if he started the year he was drafted
So many team owners don't have the faintest clue how to build a winning organization. They have had everything they want whenever they want it all their lives and they take that same mindset into NFL ownership.. They expect instant gratification and instant success. They feel it is all cut and dry that if they pay 100 million to a player he will be great or a #1 overall pick will be a HOFer and anything less is unacceptable. They seem to have no concept of the second level of guys around those players necessary to build a winning franchise. Therefore, they fire coaches, GMs, OCs, DCs, trade star players, make insane draft choices, all kinds of bonehead things that in their mind must work because they decided on them but the reality is that it in the ultimate team sport of the NFL that thought process does not work.
Aaron Rodgers sat 3 years behind Favre. Jordan Love sat 3 years behind Rodgers. Unfortunately, there's no way to predict if a QB will succeed, but the Packers might be a special franchise.
Is this really a NEW phenomenon? How about Tim Couch and Ryan Leaf at the turn of the century? It's always been a crap shoot and quick calls were always made, sometimes mistakenly like Drew Brees. Coaching is at least 50% of a QBs success if not more. Typically, if the QB is gone, so is the coach. Both were probably to blame.
yeah it's not even like i'm "old" but i already find myself thinking things like "kids today clearly don't have much context for the comments they make" haha
like yeah, Peyton Manning, David Carr, Joey Harrington, even dudes like Byron Leftwich and Kyle Boller (lol) were thrust in immediately, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, on and on and on and on.... this is far from a new expectation lol NFL offenses and the college game have never been more aligned overall, and QB prospects these days have 10X more reps and specialized training than they ever used to get back in the day, the process is naturally accelerated now, it doesn't take 5 years to figure out if a guy has got it or not
Its the Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Cj Stroud effect. Guys that immediately come in and you know they’re awesome. It makes other teams impatient, thinking there’s another guy out there that can be their superstar and it makes them move on quicker. I can’t say i blame them.
Mahomes came in year 2 after sitting as a rookie so i'm not sure how people keep using this as an example lol also this goes back to Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan if not even further, it's not something that just started happening a few years ago lol
also consider that the pro game today and pro offensive concepts in todays NFL compared to that of the 90's/early 2000's is FAR MORE in line overall with the college game and college concepts than it ever has been, and 30-40 years ago there weren't specialists training kids from the time they were young, prospects didn't have thousands of reps by the time they got to college and didn't have all the knowledge/medical science behind them that is out there today, it's a different landscape and the days of needing a 4-5 year plan to see if a prospect develops at the next level or not are mostly non-existent.... sure some of it is impatience and all that, todays society is riddled with it haha but it's also just the reality that it's not as necessary today, and you legitimately should be able to "see it" pretty quickly in a guy whether the situation around him is perfect or not
I think we all feel bad for uber-priviledged players who do not deserve much pity. Yes, making it as a star QB requires solid talent AND a bit of luck. But a player ditched as backup for 5-10 mil a year, after having made 4 to 8 mil/y as a rookie, is not going to draw any tears from me. Man, you chose that business, you failed, and you make 5 mil a year not playing? Be happy, kiddo!
@@jeanfourcade heavy hater energy
Give the guys an actual stable system and a decent offense theyll succeed. System is more important than talent
Truth! System and stability is very important
Great subject and one that has to be seriously looked at.
Ryan Poole looks suspicious...
🙄
Part of the problem is that these guys are making too much money. It makes more sense to just draft a guy every 4 years and see how it goes, unless you actually got a franchise QB. No one wants to give a mediocre QB a big boy contract
And you nailed it 100%. Businesswise, hire-and-dump is way more profitable than hire-and-develop.
Draft picks are like scratch off lotto tickets for NFL teams. 20 years ago the veteran players were upset at the huge money that was given to top draft picks, so their union changed that, and since then rookie contracts are cheaper for top draft picks now.
Thanks, Rich. The QB situation is crazy! I really feel for these young guys getting fawned over, used up and thrown away. Hats off to Green Bay who has what I think is the best approach. My Seahawks have more of this approach, I'm proud to say, in some part due to John Schneider learning the ropes in GB. Many of us are thrilled to have Sam Howell here. We saw how good the kid can be when he almost upset us. I believe the plan is to sit him for a couple of seasons behind Geno, who is a class act who will help him develop.
Not everyone has the luxury of Farve/Rodgers for 25 years.
Hey, @@jimmymcfly9822 . Coming from Seattle, I know that GB was drafting QBs all along and sitting them. How? because the guys that couldn't beat out Farve and Rogers got traded to us: first Matt Hasselbeck and then Matt Flynn, who we paid $10M to before figuring out that rookie Russell Wilson was better. Rogers sat behind Farve for a good long time, you have to remember, and Jordon Love cooled his heels on the bench for several years behind Rogers. All in all, a very much longer and saner process.
I'm convinced Russell Wilson will piss his teammates off and be off the team within 8 weeks
😂😂😂 I hope he doesn't. But I was thinking he just might.
If Fields wasn't picked up, I would lean toward agreeing with you. Now that they have him, I think Russ knows this is his last shot. He'll have the offensive protection he didn't have in Denver. He'll have the support of the head coach, unlike his time in Denver. Better running game, better defense...if he doesn't succeed, we will all know it's him, not them.
Rich doesn't watch bears games and it shows
The amount of excuses all these talking heads make for Fields is ridiculous. Like all the decades of football knowledge they have accumulated just get thrown out the window when they talk about Fields. He is not a starter. Anyone who watches can see. Maybe he can be a solid backup option but he is not the answer. In 3 seasons, he has one...ONE game of 300+ passing yds and EIGHT games of under 100. C'mon...these guys are ridiculous .
He’s the new Sam Darnold! They must be the nicest kids ever! Never seen so many excuses for such crap play.😬
I did. I am a JF21 fan. But yes, this season actually hurt more than the previous one... because we saw that JF wasn't the guy, and maybe would never be, and that Poles had no choice. But I still root for JF21, hoping he'll learn and ball out. Peace, Bobby.
He’s right though. As Bears fan I can tell you they would’ve kept him if they didn’t have 1st pick. He improved a lot since his rookie year.
Maybe one of the factors we are not talking about enough is how much system , coach and team building impact the potential success or failure of young QBs. We can see from the last decade or so that QBs that can be great from day one are very rare and even they require coaches and front offices that are capable of understanding how to best scheme and recruit into those talents. If you take Burrow, Lawrence and Fields as three examples you can clearly see that the combination of coach and recruiting are making far more difference for Burrow than Lawrence or Fields. All 3 QBs have legit talent but the franchise around Burrow is making far more of his ability than the Jags or Bears are with their young guys. There is so much attention on the QB being `him` that we do not place anywhere near enough focus on team and coaching.
Whatever you may think about Purdy, having a coach and team that are elite has allowed him to flourish and develop a mojo that will almost certainly see him become a successful QB for many years in this league. The vast bulk of young QBs do not have that luxury from day one and yet are taking all the blame for the failures of coaches to coach at a truly elite level and the recruiting departments of so many franchises completely screwing the pooch when it comes to team building.
Teams that think a QB can take their 3-4 win team to super bowl contender in 2-3 years is at best delusional UNLESS they have already built a core team that is at least solid in other areas. Part of the reason that the Bengals and Chiefs have had success with their young guys is that both teams were at least solid in offence or defence before their young guys came in and have made moves to maintain or build upon their young QBs strengths. The Bears, Jags, Jets and Giants for example were or are legit scrubs and no amount of QB talent is all that likely to save them until they improve their team overall (the jets and jags might actually be making progress though). Maybe the best example of a Franchise working to build a team around a young QB is the ravens with Jackson, creating real success around a guy that has always been a sub-par passer at the NFL level by building to HIS strengths rather than trying to force a square QB into a round system.
Problem is everyone things all these qbs are supposed to be lights out like a Mahomes or like burrows or Lamar Jackson, hell even Stroud…
Still pissed about Fields getting traded
why he was mid as heck, why keep him on a team?
Packers are the outlier.
Well the packers seems to get 1 Super Bowl with their Hall of Fame qb. That’s it. I guess that’s a good trade off. You just have to sit through a lot of disappointing seasons
@@joegardner851 lots of winning seasons. Not every team wins it all. I’d gladly take being contenders every year rather than bottom of the league every year.
This phenomena is created by the belief that you have to have a Star Quarterback to win. Most of these QBs were really 2nd or 3rd round caliber.
With the new Rookie Contract era, teams aren’t spending big money on potential busts (Sam Bradford, JaMarcus Russell).
Now, a team can risk a 1st Round pick on a Quarterback and not have to pay those Huge salaries.
Mostly. Teams want these quarterbacks to be NFL ready. Coaches don’t teach or develop players anymore
Thanks for saying it Rich, as a Seahawks fan im very excited to see what the future holds for Howell.
The one part missing is that winning a SB, or making a run these days, generally requires one of two things… a superstar QB who got paid, or a really good, above average guy, in year 1-4, who hasn’t gotten paid.
There are outliers, like Foles, but he was on a relatively cheap deal.
Teams want to know because the evidence suggests that even just making a playoff run requires that in most cases.
Stars who made it past R1 got paid (this past PO year)… Lamar, Mahomes, Goff, Allen etc. Guys who won on year 1-4 deals… Love, Stroud, Purdy, etc.
Then you have Dak, (Watson’s contract), Pickett/Rudolph/etc in Pitt. I could go on, but I think the point is made.
That’s why teams want to know asap.
You are 100% correct. Jordan Love has turned out to be the exception
I believe the biggest thing is all these teams are like "We gotta get the QB!! We gotta get the QB!! 🥵🥵🥵
And they do this BEFORE they build around the QB for the QB to be placed in. It happens every year and there are countless examples.
The QB is the most important position on the field, but if it's so important why are we putting them in such terrible situations? This is rhetorical, the reason is obvious.
Big part of that was the contracts the rookie qb’s got before it was like crazy money and now it is more reasonable now and is why teams are more willing to part with their QBs earlier
Highly drafted QBs used to get 3-4 years because of the money they were paid. Draft someone high and you had little alternative but to suffer through it. The changes made to limit and slot the contracts of draft picks has made rookie QBs as disposable as any other player. It's a tough business, if you don't show something in the first few years, teams will bring in the next guy.
All the guys mentioned still have chance to learn, they are just now on the hard path, competing for a roster spot that teams only go 2 or 3 deep at.
This is why I love Rich, his analysis is always spot on. I believe Mahomes would not be Mahomes, had he gone to another organization.
Problem is the standard is so high with the top qbs that if there’s no sign of life the first couple years for these new guys teams will move on.
You say the NFL is not equipped to deal with this new QB reality. I think there are models out there for doing so successfully. Mahomes sat for a year, then went out and had the best year a first time starter may ever have. Love sat for three years and then went out to exceed expectations. Failure to plan is a plan for failure, as they say.
It's a pricing problem. Second contracts for average starting QBs are wildly overpriced compared to the price of rookie deals and veteran backups. This is changing team behavior towards young starters still on rookie deals.
Sam Howell will be the starting QB for the Seahawks next year. Folks that are giving up this kid already are looking at stat lines instead of game tape. Dude's a gamer with an accurate arm that can make all the throws. Once he's in a balanced offense a good portion of his issues will clear up almost immediately...the rest will improve with more experience.
Very well said. It was an excellent trade!
I think part of the reason teams are so willing to ditch a 1st rd QB prospect is they don’t have the huge rookie contracts like they did prior to 2011. Before, you had to stick it out with your high priced rookie QB, now it’s much cheaper to let him go sooner.
Wow! Lots of good stuff this segment.
A lot of these teams don't know what they're doing. Bears let Matt Nagy pick Fields knowing he was on the hot seat and that was just an attempt to save his job, then they bring back Matt Eberflus when they would've had their pick of coaches with Caleb Williams as a rookie QB. No doubt Eberflus will be on the hot seat next season which will create friction as well. Also, Zach Wilson should've sat his first year and learned rather than being thrust into a starting position. Fans also play a part since they are always stomping their feet because they want to see the new toy out on the field.
That's on the owners. Why are they listening to the fans. And what makes the owners qualified to hire these ppl. And what makes a gm qualified to hire a coach. What questions are they asking in these interviews
Imagine CW or Jaden Daniels getting Eberfluss fired in 9 months ! 😂
True look up just about every qb in the HOF they all played backup to start their career😊
As a Steelers fan, I'm stoked now we didn't have a QB ,now we have 2 field's n wilson lets go
Same in Pittsburgh with Pickett. It is even more insane there. He actually had a winning record. The line stunk. They released the center he was so bad. The LT is ranked the worst in the league. Deonte Johnson was traded he was so bad at WR. The OC was so bad he was fired. And the media and the fans did not want to hear it, Pickett just somehow had to overcome all of that and he was not an immediate superstar so dump him. AND Pickett played college there. That actually maybe made it worse for him. It is insane. A year and a few months at starter and nope, can never ever get better, dump him. First round pick. Nuts
The Gardener Minshew shade was unnecessary he's still young lol