One thing I forgot to say is that an equal distribution of 20% per box variation is a GENEROUS assumption. If the SP and Leader boxes are indeed rarer than the other variations, then the expected value of a booster box is EVEN LOWER, so it's even LESS WORTH it to buy at $220
This is great! I'm also a data scientist and I didn't notice any glaring issues. If you wanted to be mega thorough you could include the bulk and the don which may be worth 10-25 (not sure haven't looked). From what I've heard, a case includes this distribution: 2 AA | AA 4 AA| SEC 2 SP | AA | SEC 2 L | AA | SEC 2 L | AA | AA I can't really verify this distribution personally, but this would indeed mean the average total price of singles for a box is even lower with more AA/SEC boxes. Reasons a market like this could be overpricing boxes could be FOMO, speculation of higher future prices, or collectable value for sealed product.
As someone who really likes Data Analytics and dashboards (experience with Tableau and basic SQL) I find these videos really satisfying and aprecciate the work behind it.
Thanks boss @Car D. Kaizoku! You're doing wonders for the community. Completely agree with just buying singles and starving out scalpers. Imagine watching this video and leaving a comment about how you break even at $220/box because of "bulk and dopamine rush" 🤷🏽♂️
This is my type of video. Thank you for all the stats and excel calcs. Thought I was the only one who would do a stat breakdown on the box value / hits
Killin the game, bro. Definitely is a point to be made that the boxes that are worth it are the leader ones and I think those odds are like previous sets where it's like 4 leader boxes to a case or something? It may even be less but yeah if you only have somethings like a 1/3 shot then I think the weighted average comes down to like $183 ish? I'm a very armature data analyst so someone should check my math lol
I don't understand why there're such huge price differences between TCG Player US prices and cardmarket prices. For instance O-Nami Parallel is only 50euros on cardmarket and on TCG Player she's going for 100-130usd (at that time there's only 1 listing for 166usd and she sold today for 130, 120 and 130). It's very weird to me why prices on cardmarket are so low.
It's because there's way more money-hungry "investors" grabbing up as much stock as they can here in America. They exist in Europe, but they're not as oppressive as they are over here. And due to shipping times and cost, these 2 markets don't generally bleed over into each other, even though I do believe there's a fair amount of arbitrage opportunity there for somebody to eventually take advantage of if they really wanted to... Also, Cardmarket's website really sucks compared to TCGplayer. It's VERY unintuitive and I feel like it kind of scares away would-be buyers who don't understand how to even find the cards they're looking for.. that probably helps to reduce demand on their end as well.
some big hits in this box ive opened 2 boxes at 200 and profited like only 50-100 but it’s mainly for fun, not fun when you pull and 20 dollar secret and a 20 dollar alt tho lol
I was.able to buy every new opo06 Playable for several of my decks for less than 250. So for the price of one box that I MAY get some hits, I can get every card I need. It's really simple to figure out once you actually price out what you need
@cardkaizoku Have you built the same simulation but with other sets using current market prices? I want to keep track of which sets (especially older ones) are closer to a fair market value compared to other sets.
When your average the average of all 5 variations of booster box pulls if would only make sense for when people by multiple or a case for example. Because to get the true average we would need to know the odds of all those variation types ie. How many booster boxes on average do you need to get a ev_AA_SEC_SP, which from what I've seen it's 2 booster boxes per case...but yes we need more data which is difficult at that level.
I think overall beside the Zoro, I do see these prices pretty reasonable for release and not to mention most places sold all their pre-order stock. Wave 2 will come in the next few months and the prices should dip further. My guess is that Zoro going to drop to $1100.
This set is super weird to have boxes that can be only 2 AA cards without any SEC or AA Leader included in it as well. I still feel a bit skeptical about those claims, since the past sets never had only AA cards without 1 of the other types of cards, but I've been seeing more claims apparently so I guess maybe... which I honestly almost wouldn't mind personally since it's actually WAY better IMO to get 2 regular AA cards rather than just 1 AA and 1 regular SEC! BUT, there was some claim on Reddit that somebody got a box that had 2 of the exact same AA which is really unheard of and I don't know how I feel about that IF that's true...
I'd be interested to see an update of this box value chart during the regular market reviews to keep the player base informed on if the boxes are worth it or not
Opening any tcg product even at msrp or hell even on sale most of the time you're not going to profit. If you're paying the inflated scalping price you have an even lower chance. Ive opened 1 booster box and also about a booster box worth of sleeved blister packs and I got extremely lucky and have pulled Rebecca sp and yamato alt art and perona alt art plus i got a decent amount of the valuable secret rares so I actually did profit technically but after opening a decent amount of OP-05 and OP-04 I know that i got extremely lucky and thats not the norm
I pulled an alt art Ichiji, alt art Aramaki and alt art Hody Jones leader from one display and i was sad bc it wasnt yamato or reiju Leader in alt art but now im happy 🤣
Hello would like to say yamatos price is so high not just because of hype but the fact that it is the best leader in sealed where the only guaranteed flex you can have is the leader so that's why she is that price I believe.
I promise you, there's VERY FEW people who are gonna pay that price for her just to flex at SEALED events which only happen 4 times a year... I PROMSIE you that's not why.
@kamikaze.33 I never once said that is the solemn reason why obviously she is a fan favorite and a part of the meta but so is luffy and purple luffy on release was not that price. Believe me being the top sealed leader is a factor.
Thank you Car D for all the help for people who want to actually play the game! People forget its also the current meta that dictates the price of each card that is not an AA/SP
I get supply is low for a lot of areas, but if you’re buying anything during the pre release period your drowning in fuck you money, or your a fool🤷♂️
Nice first try, however you need to take into account bulk 10-15 $ the don 3-5$, the SR (super expensive right now) You would break even or make profit. I know i made a LOT. With a 220 usd on average boxes . You would likely break even. Depends on pulls but on average. the fun (dopamine rush)also needs to be considered. I made money because my cost was 95 usd/ per box
I bought mine for 120-140usd and it's absolutely possible to break even so I'm not worried at all. Gecko Moria SR, Hiyori SR, Reiju SR, Perona SR are going for pretty penny and you can get multiple in 1 box. You can also sell other cards like O-nami Rare, Kikunojo Rare etc. Just like you said, you can also sell bulk and Dons. Considering you're opening more than 3-4 boxes, you'd have to be extremally unlucky to get all 3-4 boxes with only 2 AA or 1AA + 1SEC in them. I find it highly unlikely.
One thing I forgot to say is that an equal distribution of 20% per box variation is a GENEROUS assumption. If the SP and Leader boxes are indeed rarer than the other variations, then the expected value of a booster box is EVEN LOWER, so it's even LESS WORTH it to buy at $220
This is great! I'm also a data scientist and I didn't notice any glaring issues. If you wanted to be mega thorough you could include the bulk and the don which may be worth 10-25 (not sure haven't looked). From what I've heard, a case includes this distribution:
2 AA | AA
4 AA| SEC
2 SP | AA | SEC
2 L | AA | SEC
2 L | AA | AA
I can't really verify this distribution personally, but this would indeed mean the average total price of singles for a box is even lower with more AA/SEC boxes. Reasons a market like this could be overpricing boxes could be FOMO, speculation of higher future prices, or collectable value for sealed product.
This is a breakdown of box types per cases I've seen in a few different threads.
2 AA | AA
4 AA| SEC
2 SP | AA | SEC
2 L | AA | SEC
2 L | AA | AA
The distribution is not the same, you have 2 AA-AA, 4 AA-SEC, 2 AA-SEC-SP, 2 AA-SEC-L and 2 AA-AA-L so the value is around $183.24
The scalpers work hard to make things miserable. But Card D Kaizoku works harder to save us from the fomo. Thanks a lot!!🔥
As someone who really likes Data Analytics and dashboards (experience with Tableau and basic SQL) I find these videos really satisfying and aprecciate the work behind it.
Same here, until you realize the AA Aramaki - SEC Sanji box you opened is mathematically the worst combo possible 🥲
@@damianosgr sad to hear it, I got a Absalom AA an Sec Sanji in my box
it happens , at least you got some value back from the Absalom so that's nice. Here's to better boxes for the rest of the set until EB01 @@KenanTCG 💪
Ooh that gives me an idea to make a section that shows the best and worst pulls per variation LOL
@@cardkaizokuit would be very fun !
Thanks boss @Car D. Kaizoku! You're doing wonders for the community. Completely agree with just buying singles and starving out scalpers.
Imagine watching this video and leaving a comment about how you break even at $220/box because of "bulk and dopamine rush" 🤷🏽♂️
This is my type of video. Thank you for all the stats and excel calcs. Thought I was the only one who would do a stat breakdown on the box value / hits
Killin the game, bro. Definitely is a point to be made that the boxes that are worth it are the leader ones and I think those odds are like previous sets where it's like 4 leader boxes to a case or something? It may even be less but yeah if you only have somethings like a 1/3 shot then I think the weighted average comes down to like $183 ish? I'm a very armature data analyst so someone should check my math lol
7:03 saving for myself
I don't understand why there're such huge price differences between TCG Player US prices and cardmarket prices. For instance O-Nami Parallel is only 50euros on cardmarket and on TCG Player she's going for 100-130usd (at that time there's only 1 listing for 166usd and she sold today for 130, 120 and 130). It's very weird to me why prices on cardmarket are so low.
It's because there's way more money-hungry "investors" grabbing up as much stock as they can here in America. They exist in Europe, but they're not as oppressive as they are over here. And due to shipping times and cost, these 2 markets don't generally bleed over into each other, even though I do believe there's a fair amount of arbitrage opportunity there for somebody to eventually take advantage of if they really wanted to...
Also, Cardmarket's website really sucks compared to TCGplayer. It's VERY unintuitive and I feel like it kind of scares away would-be buyers who don't understand how to even find the cards they're looking for.. that probably helps to reduce demand on their end as well.
Is it easy to buy cards off card market? How much more would i be paying for shipping etc.
If you buy at around 200 a box you’re getting swindled
That's what I said in the video! But with math.
@@cardkaizoku great vid!
some big hits in this box ive opened 2 boxes at 200 and profited like only 50-100 but it’s mainly for fun, not fun when you pull and 20 dollar secret and a 20 dollar alt tho lol
Great video, please do this for further sets as well!
I was.able to buy every new opo06 Playable for several of my decks for less than 250. So for the price of one box that I MAY get some hits, I can get every card I need. It's really simple to figure out once you actually price out what you need
@cardkaizoku Have you built the same simulation but with other sets using current market prices? I want to keep track of which sets (especially older ones) are closer to a fair market value compared to other sets.
When your average the average of all 5 variations of booster box pulls if would only make sense for when people by multiple or a case for example. Because to get the true average we would need to know the odds of all those variation types ie. How many booster boxes on average do you need to get a ev_AA_SEC_SP, which from what I've seen it's 2 booster boxes per case...but yes we need more data which is difficult at that level.
Yeah, if that's the case, it's even less worth it.
I think overall beside the Zoro, I do see these prices pretty reasonable for release and not to mention most places sold all their pre-order stock. Wave 2 will come in the next few months and the prices should dip further. My guess is that Zoro going to drop to $1100.
Awesome new feature. I was just thinking that was an amazing feature some of the Magic the Gathering websites had.
I’ve seen 2 alts and 1 secret pulled from a single box
This set is super weird to have boxes that can be only 2 AA cards without any SEC or AA Leader included in it as well. I still feel a bit skeptical about those claims, since the past sets never had only AA cards without 1 of the other types of cards, but I've been seeing more claims apparently so I guess maybe... which I honestly almost wouldn't mind personally since it's actually WAY better IMO to get 2 regular AA cards rather than just 1 AA and 1 regular SEC! BUT, there was some claim on Reddit that somebody got a box that had 2 of the exact same AA which is really unheard of and I don't know how I feel about that IF that's true...
AA + SEC is the worst :'( And that was half my boxes
Do you have an API token to TCGPlayer data?
I'd be interested to see an update of this box value chart during the regular market reviews to keep the player base informed on if the boxes are worth it or not
Yep, that's the plan!
Each new feature makes the marketeer tier more and more tempting...if i had money 😂
Opening any tcg product even at msrp or hell even on sale most of the time you're not going to profit. If you're paying the inflated scalping price you have an even lower chance.
Ive opened 1 booster box and also about a booster box worth of sleeved blister packs and I got extremely lucky and have pulled Rebecca sp and yamato alt art and perona alt art plus i got a decent amount of the valuable secret rares so I actually did profit technically but after opening a decent amount of OP-05 and OP-04 I know that i got extremely lucky and thats not the norm
My calculations show that on average, you're up quite a bit if you could get it for msrp
12:55 stay for this part of the vid! Together we can stop the sneakerheads and sports card folks!
Thank you
Standing on business 😤
Damn after watching this video it made me realize how crazy it was that i pulled a treasure rare nami from my pre release packs 😂
🔥
190s is still an insane price for a box imo. You’re still just as likely to lose a lot of money than break even.
I pulled an alt art Ichiji, alt art Aramaki and alt art Hody Jones leader from one display and i was sad bc it wasnt yamato or reiju Leader in alt art but now im happy 🤣
i got 2 of the treasure namis in my case
Hello would like to say yamatos price is so high not just because of hype but the fact that it is the best leader in sealed where the only guaranteed flex you can have is the leader so that's why she is that price I believe.
I promise you, there's VERY FEW people who are gonna pay that price for her just to flex at SEALED events which only happen 4 times a year... I PROMSIE you that's not why.
@kamikaze.33 I never once said that is the solemn reason why obviously she is a fan favorite and a part of the meta but so is luffy and purple luffy on release was not that price. Believe me being the top sealed leader is a factor.
i heard the treasure nami is 1 per 2 cases
Very good video ❤
Break even and you get to gamble for the manga zoro!!! Sign me up
Not anymore. On my most recent market review, the EV dropped to like $160, while people are still selling for $200+ on tcgplayer.
LCS is selling $150 plus tax not ideal but better than most
Thank you Car D for all the help for people who want to actually play the game! People forget its also the current meta that dictates the price of each card that is not an AA/SP
I don't even think 2 AA's are for sure the box I opened last night had only one AA and it was AA Camie lol
Check your bulk pile for that 2nd AA!
My local game store selling boxes for 235 USD a pop. 😂
Highway robbery!
Blisters for the win
That shanks keep an eye on it $1 😏
👀
@@cardkaizoku i know😅😅
170 a box worth it ?
If you can trust my calculations, yeah it is on average :P
id trust you with my life saving captain @@cardkaizoku 😈
Amortized tab 0.o
I get supply is low for a lot of areas, but if you’re buying anything during the pre release period your drowning in fuck you money, or your a fool🤷♂️
Nice first try, however you need to take into account bulk 10-15 $ the don 3-5$, the SR (super expensive right now)
You would break even or make profit.
I know i made a LOT.
With a 220 usd on average boxes . You would likely break even. Depends on pulls but on average. the fun (dopamine rush)also needs to be considered.
I made money because my cost was 95 usd/ per box
Most people are not buying those boxes nowhere near 95 a box lol
I bought mine for 120-140usd and it's absolutely possible to break even so I'm not worried at all. Gecko Moria SR, Hiyori SR, Reiju SR, Perona SR are going for pretty penny and you can get multiple in 1 box. You can also sell other cards like O-nami Rare, Kikunojo Rare etc. Just like you said, you can also sell bulk and Dons. Considering you're opening more than 3-4 boxes, you'd have to be extremally unlucky to get all 3-4 boxes with only 2 AA or 1AA + 1SEC in them. I find it highly unlikely.
@@andreelmatacoronavirusquin1322 just read my
Post completely , dont just comment. You dont need to buy at 95 to break even
can the spreadsheet be shared?
Guaranteed one per box
- oh I didn’t get any in a couple boxes
The fuckkk