Is Catan all LUCK?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.ย. 2024
- Are you wondering why some Catan games feel like a breeze while others are a constant struggle? The element of luck, especially in the early stages of the game, can significantly impact your chances of success. The luck of the roll of the dice plays a crucial role in determining the effectiveness of your starting settlements.
Watch our luckiest game here: • CATAN | When Literally...
In this video, we'll cover:
The Role of Dice Rolls: How the randomness of dice rolls affects your starting settlement locations.
What actually affects luck? Number of Hexes, Production, Seven Rolls? We'll find out!
Real-World Examples: We'll analyze actual Catan games to show how luck impacted the outcomes and what players could have done differently.
Whether you're a Catan novice or a seasoned player, this analysis will provide valuable insights to enhance your strategic approach. Don't leave your game to chance - learn how to turn the odds in your favor!
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💬 Comment below with your experiences and strategies for dealing with luck in Catan.
Man, keeping track of dice rolls in Catan is a good way to start depressed drinking.
Hahaha! Its actually not so bad. I just wait until the end and record the final numbers from the end screen. If anything, I think it makes me feel better (especially with losses) because its tough overcoming very bad luck in Catan even if you are skilled.
Interesting that the stats at the end echo what many top players say, which is that the game is about 30% luck.
Also, in your lucky game not only did you have the six twice but it was coordinated brick lumber. High production, efficient set ups are doubly difficult to beat.
Yes, this is true. Remember this is only 1 aspect of luck, but I think its the most consistent. I think 30% Luck is probably pretty true,, but that number is still highly affected by Skill level. Those 6% of extreme games (especially the unlucky ones) are almost impossible to come back from regardless of skill level.
This makes no sense ? 30% Luck in a single game ? 30% luck over how many games ? 30% luck when skill levels are equal ( which they never are)..30% is just a random number made up.... over 1 game with kinda equally skilled players its probably more towards 90% luck... over 10 games with vastly different skill levels its more towards 10% luck... you cant just say the game is 30% luck in a vacuum ?
@@lordad It’s generally said in answer to the question “How much of Catan is skill and how much luck?”. So we can assume it’s an estimate of the average amount of luck over the long term. Not nine or ten games, nor one, but hundreds or thousands. And, being an average, yes the number would vary from game to game.
You definetly need to factor that dice rolls early are much more important than late in a game where growth happens exponentialy
So I certainly agree with that, the problem is that that would require me to track every dice roll in order... and I don't have that kind of time lol :) This is the best information I could provide with what I had available.
Great job on the work!!
Thank you!
Are you making the assumption that every roll of the number results in a resource produced, i.e., the robber is never on your number when it rolls?
That is correct. It’s the only way I can do it. I mention it early on in the video
@@ChrisCanCatan
That's what I thought you meant but wanted to verify. Would be interesting if you tracked actual resources received and applied the formula. Or, track the % of times each number gets blocked, and reduce accordingly.
@@kellyalvarado6533 Yea unfortunately not possible with what Catan Universe gives us with stats. Even in Colonist, I can see blocked resources but not related to a specific number. So the luck percentage is based on the assumption you should receive the resources - so its the best possible luck you COULD have; however, this also provides context... if you had a terribly unlucky game and you were blocked during it as well, then it only reemphasizes how unlucky you were lol.
Its a random anomoly that some dice during certain stretches of time will either go off or not show up buuutttt after millions billions trillions of dice rolls they average out. Its not lucky. You cant know at the beginning of the game which numbers wont hit thats why its called a crap shoot
Exactly!
Catan certainly isn't 100% luck. There's indeed an element of strategy at play that separates the more mediocre from the more skilled players.
That said, the fact that the game is so random number generator-centric (as well as Colonist having this tendency of assigning players the same starting position a disproportionately high amount which is telling in its own right)..............results in a considerably high volume of bulls*** outcomes. Not long before I stopped playing online Catan because I lost interest between the needlessly acrimonious mood in many chats and the cheating in competitive ranked play, I'll never forget losing six games in a seven game span because..............you guessed it.............none of my numbers suddenly rolled the rest of the game after I got up to eight or nine points, and one of my rivals "came back" in result of that. @.@
So I wouldn't call it "luck" so much as RNG bulls***, hahahaha! XD
Hahaha! Yea, I hear ya on the online Catan stuff. In truth, I prefer in person Catan because then you know the dice are real and are what they are. But I agree its certainly not 100% luck. Its probably 30% luck which decreases with how your skill level is.
that is an amazing video
I appreciate that, thank you! It took a lot of time to get all the numbers.
I had a game that crushed by the winner of his craziest luck i have ever seen,
Orange on 469 & 910
Red on 348 & 569
Black on 4511 & 5810
Blue on 834 & 5810
The rolls turned out like this
2 - 3 times
3 - 0
4 - 4 times
5 - 0
6 - 4 times
7 - 1 time
8 - 3 times
9 - 10 times
10 - 2 times
11 - 0
12 - 1 time
his lucky % must be over 150!
@hunglamlam Wow that's a fast game with only 28 dice rolls and very extreme! I took the liberty of calculating it for you based on the inputs you gave me, and you were right!
Orange: 189.23% - Very Lucky
Red: 109.42% - Slightly Lucky
Black: 51.36% - Very Unlucky
Blue: - 65.37% - Very Unlucky
@@ChrisCanCatan that was the craziest game I played, felt like our 5810 setups didn’t produce at all!
We tried to cooperate but the luck is too strong. And he had that 2 to 1 port!
Yea, exactly that happens. That's that 6% of games where there is essentially nothing you can do... and it SUCKS