Larry Summers on the Odds of a Recession

แชร์
ฝัง
  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 ก.ย. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 113

  • @wally5077
    @wally5077 2 ปีที่แล้ว +47

    Q1 negative and Q2 has seen miss after miss on retail, housing starts, manufacturing, etc. Any analyst who doesn't assume a recession is already happening is either ignorant and incompetent or a liar

    • @mmamultiverse75
      @mmamultiverse75 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      A lot of people are in denial cause they are down big

    • @sunbelthomes2430
      @sunbelthomes2430 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Former secretary of treasury < wally - youtube commenter

    • @dagsterblaster4973
      @dagsterblaster4973 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Spot on

  • @jeffreymarshall4572
    @jeffreymarshall4572 2 ปีที่แล้ว +18

    If you want to know how bad things really are, allow interest rates to be market based, run a balanced budget and force the Fed to liquidate its balance sheet.

  • @bobbymainz1160
    @bobbymainz1160 2 ปีที่แล้ว +67

    Warren Buffet proved a very good point. A point that for every market collapse and recession. All the top 20 companies in each 30 yr system or so either never existed after or never make the top 20 ever again…fact

    • @andrewtownsend886
      @andrewtownsend886 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      We are in a Recession People. Everyone seems to want to call it something Else for some reason

    • @marksway7292
      @marksway7292 2 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      @@andrewtownsend886 Right now, everyone would be prudent to invest in non-government sources of income. Particularly in light of the present global economic crisis. This is still an excellent opportunity to invest in stocks and digital currencies. despite the market crash, for those that really understand the market swings.

    • @jameswood9772
      @jameswood9772 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@marksway7292 How do you tend to archive that with the recent market conditions.

    • @marksway7292
      @marksway7292 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      @@jameswood9772 I didn't just venture into the market rather I went through the assistance of "Eileen Ruth Sparks" as my Financial coach, and now I am earning significant gains even in the midst of this raging bear market.

    • @marksway7292
      @marksway7292 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      @Zahair O'Brian Just do an online lookup using her full name.

  • @edj3377
    @edj3377 2 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    We have been in a recession for months. The financial market needs to adjust whatever formula they use to identify a recession.

    • @redcrystalsoul
      @redcrystalsoul 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      fall in GDP in two successive quarters

    • @edj3377
      @edj3377 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@redcrystalsoul Thank You.

    • @Seegie16
      @Seegie16 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@edj3377 And weve already had 1, plus the bond yield has already inverted basically guaranteeing that the current quarter we are in will be negative so ya we have been in one since q2

    • @edj3377
      @edj3377 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@Seegie16 Exactly

  • @sebass2486
    @sebass2486 2 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    We are already in a Recession.

  • @somethingnice7042
    @somethingnice7042 2 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    We are already IN a recession
    Why are these videos speculating that?

    • @chrisheist652
      @chrisheist652 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Because videos are where less intelligent people get their information, so they tell everyone way late info via those outlets to keep them behind.

  • @cameronf3343
    @cameronf3343 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    We’re in a recession. Job growth doesn’t mean we’re not. Job growth means it’s not an all-at-once.

    • @criscross7362
      @criscross7362 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Could you please elaborate on that?

    • @cameronf3343
      @cameronf3343 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@criscross7362 Every time someone tries to deny that we’re already in the early stages of a recession they cite the employment stats. But we don’t define a recession by employment stats, we define it by two quarters of declining GDP. We already had the entire Q1 with that declined GDP and in just a couple weeks we’ll get that Q2; but just because it hasn’t been officially declared because it isn’t a metric 6 months doesn’t mean 5 months is a green light. The high employment stats means the economy’s still holding out the best it could. But we’re already on month two straight of silent Tech and SaaS layoffs and that’s just the beginning.
      You can have good job stats but still be in a recession. This one’s different from most recessions of unemployment➡️recession, because the high amounts of injected money throughout 2020/21 are allowing businesses to hold onto maintaining headcounts. While inflation and wary spending are causing the decline, rather than the usual case of mass income halts. But we are still in a recession because of it.

  • @marekkolenda9718
    @marekkolenda9718 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Shopping cargo containers not unloading in US ports.Warehouses full product supply.People stop buying except food fuels and important items

  • @LTJADAN
    @LTJADAN 2 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Q2 will be negative growth. We’re already in a recession using the classical definition. Things will only get worse before they get better. Buy the dip, because the moment it stops dipping, you’re too late.

  • @wanderingfido
    @wanderingfido 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Summers needs to cut back on his Xanax. Jesus Christ dude. Moderation is key to a healthy life.

    • @chrisheist652
      @chrisheist652 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      It's an intentional cadence. It's a hypnotic speaking trick that engenders credulity and compliance. David Blaine and other magicians use it all the time.
      Of course I'm joking, I'm a comedian.

  • @MyInfotainmentFix
    @MyInfotainmentFix 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Recession is a done deal. Better to accept it and deal with it. Regarding energy, there is plenty of resources stop sanctioning countries for your political brownie points. Venezuela, Iran and now Russia three countries with enormous energy reserves all being sanctioned to keep American war industry going.

    • @DKK
      @DKK 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Or just use our own energy, I mean that’s logical

  • @bluemoon7076
    @bluemoon7076 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Not to worry . The arms producers and the pharmaceutical companies have made enough money . That’s all that matters in United America . It’s every politician’s wish ……. Their sponsors .

  • @constantin58
    @constantin58 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Economy was overheated/frothy a year ago, now it's melting. The ultra rich Americans often make bets with FED's money and lose then years later people have to pay. It happens over and over again in US.

  • @blahblah2779
    @blahblah2779 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Stop taking about recession.
    We’re already in one. It’s time to own it and face the problem. Before we end up facing a full on depression and collapse.

  • @valcummings1383
    @valcummings1383 2 ปีที่แล้ว +15

    I just hope I time the bottom right on this one for my entry. There is going to be some great discounts out there.

    • @1Zoe1234
      @1Zoe1234 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Dollar cost averaging is a better bet. Timing the market is very tricky and a lot harder than people think

    • @AldiTVFan
      @AldiTVFan 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      i guess next week will be bloodyy

  • @kennethmoore-cq7bj
    @kennethmoore-cq7bj 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Larry is one of the few adults left in the room!

  • @TheFreddieFoo
    @TheFreddieFoo 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    This dude sounds like the male version of Janet Yellen.

  • @joshrickards7007
    @joshrickards7007 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    Is it just me or did his meds kick in mid interview? 😳😬

    • @Idleeuro
      @Idleeuro 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Lmao when the edibles kick in

  • @americanaforever6725
    @americanaforever6725 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    In the 1970’s both inflation and the economy moved higher and lower in waves with an upward bias until dramatic Fed and Reagan fiscal/supply actions were taken

    • @chessdad182
      @chessdad182 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Flood of imports and USA de-industrialization. I was there. My employer was Square D Company. I used to travel around the country to all the manufacturing plants. Thanks to Reagan all that shut down and replaced with Chinese imports.

    • @americanaforever6725
      @americanaforever6725 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@chessdad182 de-industrialization began in 70’s thanks to EPA/regulations/energy/interest rates/ Unionization. Reagan slowed the demise by addressing all of these

  • @john_doe_not_found
    @john_doe_not_found 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    The growth of China and the export of American jobs to China is what bought 20 years of low inflation. America could export jobs to ASEAN/Africa and thus diversify the supply chain away from China and that would also drop inflation. China could re-open and that would drop supply side inflation.

    • @john_doe_not_found
      @john_doe_not_found 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Most of the 11 million unfilled jobs are unfilled because they are crap. They barely compensate the worker for the time invested.

  • @Esterpaisley
    @Esterpaisley 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Until gas goes down significantly in price, the supply chain is under control and the housing market adjusts, expect increasing higher prices and inflation. Increase interest rates and prices go up across the board, except people will now have less money left to pay for the higher prices on goods. Could we be seeing inflationary prices and recession at the same time??! I actually see the higher interest rates spawning inflation because of higher costs.

    • @klausmkl
      @klausmkl 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      thats stagflation, we had it in 70's, here again

  • @Cal71922
    @Cal71922 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Were in a recession

    • @Cal71922
      @Cal71922 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@Etaoinshrdlu69 A technical recession

  • @dexlab7539
    @dexlab7539 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    Inflation is ALWAYS a Monetary phenomenon (FED is the problem)!

    • @luvon1114
      @luvon1114 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      yeah, it can't be people taking advantage of the media created inflation expectations

    • @AB-fc8io
      @AB-fc8io 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      maverick

  • @truepersona6804
    @truepersona6804 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Asking a gangster whether there is a recession or not...

  • @Seegie16
    @Seegie16 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    We are in it. We had one quarter of negative gdp plu a yield inversion. We are in it.

  • @joechiato5278
    @joechiato5278 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Knock me down with a feather. I never would have imagined that printing trillions and trillions of dollars to try and eradicate the sniffles would lead to inflation

  • @LearnWithVikram7
    @LearnWithVikram7 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    No recession as long as there are wars as people don't mind going homeless for freedom and democracy

  • @AH-fm7rj
    @AH-fm7rj 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    What is causing the inflation? Can it be that everything is made in China and now they don't want to sell their products so cheap? Maybe it is time to start producing something again.

  • @leemcgill5898
    @leemcgill5898 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    How about government profit on fuel.

  • @jesuschrist8
    @jesuschrist8 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Gas crashed 25% from its all time high peak! Oil also crashed 10% and would fall further!

    • @grateful.7495
      @grateful.7495 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      How can it be crashed if there's a high demand for it!it will turn around go back again nothing goes in straight line.

    • @jesuschrist8
      @jesuschrist8 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@grateful.7495 EU just banned combustion engine by 2030. Summer season is here lessening the demand for heating. China is buying Russian gas and oil lessening their demand for Saudi Oil. Recession risks increased which last 2008 recession saw the price of oil fall from $133 to $39. Sell oil! Sell oil! Sell oil!

  • @MrYatesj1
    @MrYatesj1 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Most talking heads on TV are saying buy stocks now 3500 is the low (150 points from here) seems like the bottom is no where near in and this is going to take another 6 to 9 months to work through. Don't forget about QT which mean liquidity is all but gone. As long as gas is 5, 6 or 10 a gal and food is more and more expensive there are many folks in this country who will not make it. SOS

  • @GoArian
    @GoArian 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Brown out at 4:24

  • @klausmkl
    @klausmkl 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    At 2:24 Summers talks about a time needed way below normal to restore things, then bam he is cut off

  • @leesommer5871
    @leesommer5871 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Can you imagine the radical, unproven, destructive, illogical suggestions that Brandon receives from his “Advisers” each and every day? No wonder nothing makes sense.

  • @christophermiddleton8037
    @christophermiddleton8037 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Go the opposite of the herd recession is inevitable but we will get a bounce in The next week or 2 , Bear market rally to All time highs then we get the big crash every one is expecting ! 🤔

    • @grateful.7495
      @grateful.7495 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      No way we gonna go to all time highs ,r u in the wonderland or holding the bag from highs ,with high inflation and rate hikes around the world wake up man sit tight and get ready for worst .

  • @timf9649
    @timf9649 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    You can get rid of this inflation, is by producing more things..but no, we are in a green energy juggernaut of climate change that is wrecking are economy.. because we don't want to producing anything because of the carbon foot print. Auto production at 40 year low. Plus housing way off.

  • @ChrisTaylor-dz6nk
    @ChrisTaylor-dz6nk 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Free money 💰 for years. Dept crisis. If interest rates go up to much everybody is bankrupt.

  • @farmerdude3578
    @farmerdude3578 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Just lie about the unemployment. That’s a plan.

  • @Steven-fv8xw
    @Steven-fv8xw 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    wait but we have been in a recession for over 3 years!!!

  • @ciaran6309
    @ciaran6309 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Biden didn't think through the ukraine issue enough

    • @DKK
      @DKK 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      He doesn’t think at all, he’s a puppet

    • @DKK
      @DKK 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      He doesn’t think at all, he’s a puppet

  • @Stephen-wh7vl
    @Stephen-wh7vl 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    S&P has got another thousands points to lose

  • @svengurglani1532
    @svengurglani1532 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Odds = 100%

  • @christopherrichardwadedett4100
    @christopherrichardwadedett4100 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Hunter must give Uncle Joe better advice at their home strategy meetings. Probably won't happen.

  • @rafaela.5748
    @rafaela.5748 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Inflation peeked already. Gas crashed 25% from its all time high peak! Oil also crashed 10% on Friday!

  • @urkodehoyos4286
    @urkodehoyos4286 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    100%

  • @edmundlively8137
    @edmundlively8137 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    NATO Nations should use coal gas town gas if you like

  • @bobleib737
    @bobleib737 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Hey Larry let's go back to Harvard and lose our asses in the stock market again!

  • @joshrickards7007
    @joshrickards7007 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Larry Summers has no creditability

  • @tempusfugit3635
    @tempusfugit3635 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Without even watching I can tell you Larry says 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd

  • @JustSomeDude_.
    @JustSomeDude_. 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    LGB!

  • @JustJeffwilldo
    @JustJeffwilldo 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Odds of a Biden depression?

  • @clarkdownson5742
    @clarkdownson5742 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Always good to hear your thoughtful and logical analysis. I don't care about bullish or bearish market. Trade a small percentage of your portfolio rather than going in and out every couple weeks trying to time the market trading went smooth for me as I was able to raise over 8.4 BTC when I started at 3 BTC in just few weeks implementing Nathan Zachary’s daily trading signals and tips..

    • @clarkdownson5742
      @clarkdownson5742 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      For Nathan's assistance reach via these contacts below;

    • @clarkdownson5742
      @clarkdownson5742 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      WhatsApp༒①②⓪②⑦④③⓪①①⑨⬅ 🆙

    • @clarkdownson5742
      @clarkdownson5742 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @Mytrade247 👈👈 Te legr am ⬅ 🆙

    • @brownteddy881
      @brownteddy881 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Nice.… i am also interested.