Finally, a year where we have a real race going on! It’s going to be so exciting. Not boring. Finally an awards season with so many interesting trajectories.
Super happy about the overperformance of A Complete Unknown, very deserved. So glad I went all in and predicted all four of them to get in. If anyone was doubting this movie as top five best picture contender you're fooling yourself now.
@@sreyangovender3404 C'mon you can't be serious! It's getting into all the guilds, it made 11 BAFTA longlists, 4 SAG nominations and DGA. What more do you need to be convinced? I'm not saying it'll win but it's now definitely top five with Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and Emilia Pérez.
@@sreyangovender3404 C'mon you can't be serious. It's getting into all the guilds, it made 11 BAFTA longlists, and 4 SAG nominations and DGA. What more do you need to be convinced? I'm not saying it'll win but it's definitely top five with Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and Emilia Pérez.
C'mon you can't be serious! It's getting into all the guilds, it made 11 BAFTA longlists, and 4 SAG nominations and DGA. What more do you need to be convinced? I'm not saying it'll win but it's definitely top five with Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and Emilia Pérez.
The alphabet theory is a big deal in behavioral analysis. Or, just the order people are ranked. This impacts elections too, usually not presidential ones, but for smaller races downballot, it matters. The best is to randomize the order but that costs money.
The Alphabet bias theory reminds me of The Alphabet Bias theory Gregg Turkington had with the oscars in the 2016 Our Cinema Oscar Special, though Joyce's makes more sense
I've believed in the SAG alphabet bias since they bizarrely nominated Brian Cox but not Jeremy Strong for season 4 of Succession. Granted, it seems Strong didn't really campaign much that year, since he wanted to move on from Succession and was focused on filming The Apprentice but it's still impossible to imagine voting that way if you have actually seen the season. At least he beat the alphabet bias now. :) (Probably because he is campaigning now.)
I'm happy SAG decided they didn't give a fudge this year. I'm routing for Wicked or A complete unknown getting ensemble, just to bring more chaos to the season!
Wicked is definitely going to win Ensemble. If it could surprise on Oscar morning with a surprise. Best director nomination, they could also shock with screenplay since the screenplay has been talked about a lot for writer's Guild. It's not only eligible, it's one of the top five screenplays of the year to be nominated. Over conclave though, I still see that one winning. If Wicked is the most nominated film at the Oscars, it's going to go the opposite way of other musicals because if it's not a remake, it did incredibly well at the box office becoming the highest grossing musical adaptation of all time and it's doing something unique by taking act 1 of the musical and using it as a complete story and same with the sequel. They're going to win double the amount of Oscars for both films and it's a truly brilliant strand strategy that no one is really jumping on. If Jonathan Bailey gets nominated for an Oscar, he might actually win even if Karen Culkin is the favorite, just like Jamie Lee Curtis did.
Very happy to see Pamela Anderson on the list. She did the best performance this year to me. I wouldn’t ask why she is nominated and not Fernanda or the others since she did a very good performance, why don’t we ask why the others are nominated and not Fernanda? At the end of the day, the only one who won the Golden Glove, was Demi on this list?
I don’t completely agree with the Moore/Anderson narrative comparison. Moore, while missing from awards conversations, has been a pretty consistent presence in the industry and has proven she has the acting chops to stand toe-to-toe with her peers. Outside of a appearing as a punchline in late night monologues or cameo appearance in self parodying roles, Anderson has basically no serious work to pad her resume. Academy voters may view her performance as a pleasant surprise after years of viewing her as mere tabloid fodder. I could see Anderson (ESPECIALLY with Curtis in her corner) sneaking in to the coveted fifth spot.
Selena, missing the nomination. Here is a clear sign that the academy isn't too crazy about this film as much as the internationals are. Her missing here is her big ticket out of the Oscars and so is with this film. This show's a massive weakness for EP as a film and it's clear that it is failing out on every category. If Wicked was given five nominations, it's probably going to win all of them like everything everywhere all at once and Shakespeare and love, two films that fit in a five category group of films that have won best picture from sag Ensemble winds and other wins as well.
Here are the lists of the 2025 SAG Awards that I hope wins: Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET as Bob Dylan - “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN” Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role: CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba - “WICKED” Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: KIERAN CULKIN / Benji Kaplan - “A REAL PAIN” or EDWARD NORTON / Pete Seeger - “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN” Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda - “WICKED” Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: WICKED JONATHAN BAILEY / Fiyero MARISSA BODE / Nessarose PETER DINKLAGE / Dr. Dillamond CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba JEFF GOLDBLUM / The Wonderful Wizard of Oz ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda ETHAN SLATER / Boq BOWEN YANG / Pfannee MICHELLE YEOH / Madame Morrible Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE ❤️💛 TV Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series COLIN FARRELL / Oz Cobb - “THE PENGUIN” Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series: LILY GLADSTONE / Cam Bentland - “UNDER THE BRIDGE”
They knew that EP was too controversial to be leading anything. They clearly love Wicked because it's the best musical of the year. It's also the consensus and actors guild consensus pick for best Ensemble cast. It's definitely winning Ensemble cast at SAG and possibly Best Picture. It could still win best picture without a director nomination. Either way though, the director might sneak his way in to the 5th spot for best directors solely because of how much the acting branch loves the film. Wicked is clearly a force to be reckoned with then nobody had ever anticipated.
Sing Sing was a totally forgetful movie as many emailers said, I'm so glad it didn't get into ensemble. I saw the film back in May never once did I think this movie was an Oscar contender, I'm shocked how so many people jumped on that car crash of a bandwagon.
Car crash… really? You have your personal feelings mixed into that statement. I have a sneaky suspicion what that is. Look, I hated The Substance, but I still found value in it. As for Sing Sing… loved the movie. The message. The acting. Many other people did too. Car crash, indeed.
@@DavidC-c9g Which is not an industry award. The Brutalist underperformed at SAG. It should do great with BAFTAS, but it would probably need SAG voters to push it to a win.
Are you two honestly trying to shade wicked by saying it’s not an ensemble movie? Jesus, you two need to act more like professionals.. Did y’all not get invited to a screening or something? You guys are clearly butt hurt when it comes to wicked! Wicked will win Best Ensemble.
This is a wild comment. I don't think I ever said Wicked wasn't an ensemble movie, although I do think it's mostly about Cynthia and Ariana. But more to the point, I loved it? Sorry you think otherwise!
@@chrisjrosen even when you two reviewed wicked you guys were being shady with your review. It’s like you had a conversation 30 minutes before and we’re like hey everybody seems to love this movie. Let’s throw shade at it to get more clicks on TH-cam.
@@chrisjrosen if you come to cinema con this year, I’ll show you the clip. Oh, and I was also the one that told you a couple years ago that no chance at all would Lady Gaga being nominated for a house of Gucci and you told me I would be wrong.. I think I won that bet.
No chance. Conclave is a religious film which they'll never allow. Wicked is winning Ensemble and might win picture with a healthy package of screenplay, actress, supporting actress, supporting actor, a bunch of tech wins and picture. The acting branch of the SAG's takes up the majority of The academy's voting block for best picture and weirder things have happened so it could happen.
If Demi wasn’t in the race with the same veteran comeback narrative I’d say that’s a possibility. But Demi has a much bigger film resume of great performances, is in a better movie than Pam Anderson, and gives a better performance if you ask me.
Finally, a year where we have a real race going on! It’s going to be so exciting. Not boring. Finally an awards season with so many interesting trajectories.
True
And the plot thickens...
The Brutalist ⬇️
Sing Sing ⬇️
Emilia Perez ⬇️
A Complete Unknown ⬆️
Wicked ⬆️
Anora ⬆️
It blows the mind that Demi went from long-shot then hope pick to now, front runner.
Super happy about the overperformance of A Complete Unknown, very deserved. So glad I went all in and predicted all four of them to get in. If anyone was doubting this movie as top five best picture contender you're fooling yourself now.
Not a top 5
Picture, Actor, maybe supporting actor and sound?
@@sreyangovender3404 C'mon you can't be serious! It's getting into all the guilds, it made 11 BAFTA longlists, 4 SAG nominations and DGA. What more do you need to be convinced? I'm not saying it'll win but it's now definitely top five with Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and Emilia Pérez.
@@sreyangovender3404 C'mon you can't be serious. It's getting into all the guilds, it made 11 BAFTA longlists, and 4 SAG nominations and DGA. What more do you need to be convinced? I'm not saying it'll win but it's definitely top five with Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and Emilia Pérez.
C'mon you can't be serious! It's getting into all the guilds, it made 11 BAFTA longlists, and 4 SAG nominations and DGA. What more do you need to be convinced? I'm not saying it'll win but it's definitely top five with Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and Emilia Pérez.
The alphabet theory is a big deal in behavioral analysis. Or, just the order people are ranked. This impacts elections too, usually not presidential ones, but for smaller races downballot, it matters. The best is to randomize the order but that costs money.
The Alphabet bias theory reminds me of The Alphabet Bias theory Gregg Turkington had with the oscars in the 2016 Our Cinema Oscar Special, though Joyce's makes more sense
I've believed in the SAG alphabet bias since they bizarrely nominated Brian Cox but not Jeremy Strong for season 4 of Succession. Granted, it seems Strong didn't really campaign much that year, since he wanted to move on from Succession and was focused on filming The Apprentice but it's still impossible to imagine voting that way if you have actually seen the season.
At least he beat the alphabet bias now. :)
(Probably because he is campaigning now.)
I’m convinced alphabet bias is real! There’s so so many names to go through. If you’re not like Top 2 likely to win, good luck
I am too!!! How disappointing though
Joyce convinced me of the alphabet theory. Wild!
I’m so happy for Demi Moore’s nomination!🤩 I’ve absolutely adored her ever since General Hospital in 1982.💖
I'm happy SAG decided they didn't give a fudge this year. I'm routing for Wicked or A complete unknown getting ensemble, just to bring more chaos to the season!
Yes
Wicked is definitely going to win Ensemble. If it could surprise on Oscar morning with a surprise. Best director nomination, they could also shock with screenplay since the screenplay has been talked about a lot for writer's Guild. It's not only eligible, it's one of the top five screenplays of the year to be nominated. Over conclave though, I still see that one winning. If Wicked is the most nominated film at the Oscars, it's going to go the opposite way of other musicals because if it's not a remake, it did incredibly well at the box office becoming the highest grossing musical adaptation of all time and it's doing something unique by taking act 1 of the musical and using it as a complete story and same with the sequel. They're going to win double the amount of Oscars for both films and it's a truly brilliant strand strategy that no one is really jumping on. If Jonathan Bailey gets nominated for an Oscar, he might actually win even if Karen Culkin is the favorite, just like Jamie Lee Curtis did.
Very happy to see Pamela Anderson on the list. She did the best performance this year to me. I wouldn’t ask why she is nominated and not Fernanda or the others since she did a very good performance, why don’t we ask why the others are nominated and not Fernanda? At the end of the day, the only one who won the Golden Glove, was Demi on this list?
I don’t completely agree with the Moore/Anderson narrative comparison.
Moore, while missing from awards conversations, has been a pretty consistent presence in the industry and has proven she has the acting chops to stand toe-to-toe with her peers.
Outside of a appearing as a punchline in late night monologues or cameo appearance in self parodying roles, Anderson has basically no serious work to pad her resume. Academy voters may view her performance as a pleasant surprise after years of viewing her as mere tabloid fodder.
I could see Anderson (ESPECIALLY with Curtis in her corner) sneaking in to the coveted fifth spot.
Wicked is dominating at SAGS and all I’ll say I can’t help but laugh at Emilia Perez couldn’t even get two for supporting actress ha
Love you guys
Low cut red carpet gowns highlighting the SAG.
Kathy Bates random TV nom is probably the best argument for the alphabet theory this year.
Very happy to see Pamela Anderson on the list. She did the best performance this year to me.
Love Joyce
Selena, missing the nomination. Here is a clear sign that the academy isn't too crazy about this film as much as the internationals are. Her missing here is her big ticket out of the Oscars and so is with this film. This show's a massive weakness for EP as a film and it's clear that it is failing out on every category. If Wicked was given five nominations, it's probably going to win all of them like everything everywhere all at once and Shakespeare and love, two films that fit in a five category group of films that have won best picture from sag Ensemble winds and other wins as well.
I love surprises.
Is Peter Dinklage the first actor to be nominated for a vocal performance as part of the SAG ensemble of Wicked? Cool if true
Julie Andrews was nominated for Bridgerton before.
Andy Serkis got in for The Return of the King but I guess he did motion-capture work as well as voice.
Here are the lists of the 2025 SAG Awards that I hope wins:
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET as Bob Dylan - “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba - “WICKED”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
KIERAN CULKIN / Benji Kaplan - “A REAL PAIN”
or
EDWARD NORTON / Pete Seeger - “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda - “WICKED”
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
WICKED JONATHAN BAILEY / Fiyero MARISSA BODE / Nessarose PETER DINKLAGE / Dr. Dillamond CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba JEFF GOLDBLUM / The Wonderful Wizard of Oz ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda ETHAN SLATER / Boq BOWEN YANG / Pfannee MICHELLE YEOH / Madame Morrible
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE ❤️💛
TV
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
COLIN FARRELL / Oz Cobb - “THE PENGUIN”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series:
LILY GLADSTONE / Cam Bentland - “UNDER THE BRIDGE”
I heard that Gomez proununciation was sub par. I can’t imagine the actin* body overlooking that, and they didn’t.
They knew that EP was too controversial to be leading anything. They clearly love Wicked because it's the best musical of the year. It's also the consensus and actors guild consensus pick for best Ensemble cast. It's definitely winning Ensemble cast at SAG and possibly Best Picture. It could still win best picture without a director nomination. Either way though, the director might sneak his way in to the 5th spot for best directors solely because of how much the acting branch loves the film. Wicked is clearly a force to be reckoned with then nobody had ever anticipated.
Sing Sing was a totally forgetful movie as many emailers said, I'm so glad it didn't get into ensemble. I saw the film back in May never once did I think this movie was an Oscar contender, I'm shocked how so many people jumped on that car crash of a bandwagon.
Car crash… really? You have your personal feelings mixed into that statement. I have a sneaky suspicion what that is. Look, I hated The Substance, but I still found value in it. As for Sing Sing… loved the movie. The message. The acting. Many other people did too. Car crash, indeed.
Best Picture is down to A Complete Unknown, Anora, or Wicked
Brutalist won at golden globes
@@DavidC-c9g Which is not an industry award. The Brutalist underperformed at SAG. It should do great with BAFTAS, but it would probably need SAG voters to push it to a win.
This season shribking 2 > bear 3 but I haven’t watched hacks yet
I think 🤔 Hacks wins this.
Fernanda torres deserved
And I’d love to see Harrison win over Jeremy. He is great in this role and comical. Jeremy isn’t comical.
I want Ford to win 🏅
Demi will sweep
Are you two honestly trying to shade wicked by saying it’s not an ensemble movie? Jesus, you two need to act more like professionals.. Did y’all not get invited to a screening or something? You guys are clearly butt hurt when it comes to wicked! Wicked will win Best Ensemble.
This is a wild comment. I don't think I ever said Wicked wasn't an ensemble movie, although I do think it's mostly about Cynthia and Ariana. But more to the point, I loved it? Sorry you think otherwise!
@@chrisjrosen even when you two reviewed wicked you guys were being shady with your review. It’s like you had a conversation 30 minutes before and we’re like hey everybody seems to love this movie. Let’s throw shade at it to get more clicks on TH-cam.
Nah.
@@chrisjrosen if you come to cinema con this year, I’ll show you the clip. Oh, and I was also the one that told you a couple years ago that no chance at all would Lady Gaga being nominated for a house of Gucci and you told me I would be wrong.. I think I won that bet.
😮
delighted angelina not nomnated for her lip syncing effort....
She actually sung the songs when Maria Callas' voice was fading. Where were you with Rami Malek? Y'all just love abuser Brad.
I think at the end Conclave will be the BP winner. Ive had this feeling way since the beginning. With Monica being included at SAG might be the hint.
No chance. Conclave is a religious film which they'll never allow. Wicked is winning Ensemble and might win picture with a healthy package of screenplay, actress, supporting actress, supporting actor, a bunch of tech wins and picture. The acting branch of the SAG's takes up the majority of The academy's voting block for best picture and weirder things have happened so it could happen.
You two were Super Wrong about Wicked!!!
We had it predicted to get three of its four main nominations.
Pamela will win. Just wait
Even if she doesn’t get an Oscar nom, she still might. Kinda like Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place.
If Demi wasn’t in the race with the same veteran comeback narrative I’d say that’s a possibility. But Demi has a much bigger film resume of great performances, is in a better movie than Pam Anderson, and gives a better performance if you ask me.
🤔
@@jarm8618What are the chances Cynthia Erivo actually wins over Demi Moore at the Academy if the acting Branch truly loves Wicked as much as they do?
So disappointed about Nicole. The Alphabet theory is crazy. Thanks for sharing!