Global Economic Growth Is Collapsing (Here's Why) || Peter Zeihan
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ก.ย. 2024
- When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its least optimistic report in the last 50 years, alarm bells should go off for everyone. IMF's projected global economic growth for the next year is 2.8%, and for the next five years is only 3%. The scariest part is that these numbers are likely overly optimistic.
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#economics #economy #china #imf
At least Peter is keeping the travel industry alive all by himself
@Russo Zelinsky 60 years ago you would have been correct with that analysis. Back then everyone thought we would run out of oil and have mass populations of starvation. Since then we have found out that our technology just in the US has almost been able to feed the world population. And as far as energy goes we have found ways to not only extract more oil in natural gas but also ways to discover that many of these oil fields that we thought were dried up have the ability to replenish themselves. People think that we can go carbon-neutral which is impossible because everything on this planet is carbon based. And CO2 is actually less than a half a percent of the atmosphere enough that we contribute less than 4% of that. So these discoveries thrown in with the fact that human-caused carbon emissions will not cause the planet to be destroyed. That is the excuse everyone has had for claiming that we are overpopulated. Now Peter has just shown data that our population is actually in a decline. If you watch the video you can see the negative effects of that. He has many other videos that show his reasoning why many other countries such as China are going to have significant population decreases in the next 30 years.
LOL
Peter next week: hello from the moon!
@russozelinskycapitalists are the ones pushing everything to the brink for more money
Half of the reason I watch is to see where he is today. It's like global wheres Waldo.
Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
My main concern now is how can we generate more revenue during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I’ll suggest you get yourself a financial expert that can provide you with valuable financial information and assistance
Very true! I've been able to scale from $50K to $189k in this red season because my Financial Advisor figured out Defensive strategies which help portfolios be less vulnerable to market downturns
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
@@kenanporubsky2122 She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.
Let's face it... buying more stocks & index funds during stock market corrections and bear markets is scary. Which makes it really hard to do for most people like me. I have 260k i want to transfer into an s&s isa but its hard to bite the bullet and do it.
Thats true, I've been getting assisted by a FA for almost a year now, I started out with less than $200K and I'm just $19,000 short of half a million in profit.
I agree. I have pulled in more than $435k since 2020 through my advisor. It pays off more in the long run to just pick quality stocks and ride with those stocks.
you people talk like paid actors in a goddamn mutual life infomercial. almost worse than those folk that come out of the woodwork whenever someone does a jesus video
Is aerial acrobatics where you learned to suck yourself off?
You're like a doctor who smiles and acts all friendly while telling the patient he has two weeks to live! 😂
Don’t worry. It’s how he gets clicks. He doesn’t even know what a baby boomer is. They are dying off now, and started retiring 15 years ago. Clueless!
He makes a living hiking all over the world while making 6 min videos.
@@AmericanPOVshow Peter has multiple videos on how he comes up with his analysis. Just by watching those videos you can see that he does his research. And I have noticed he has no political side when it comes to just stating his reasons based on his research. With the internet it is not hard to verify his data through looking at populations looking at history how it has affected decisions countries have made. He makes these decisions based on past history patterns of countries and populations. He is also stated in a few videos that if the data changes he will change his prediction. Which is normally what any researcher will do. Except maybe the climate change fanatics.
@shaunk78. Zeihan said the LAST of the boomers started retiring last year. The post-war baby boom occurred between 1946 and 1964, which is an big 18-year range. A retired (60-ish) boomer who don't feel quite dead yet ;-)
@@slimjimnyc270 So, people born AFTER the Korean War baby bust are BOOMERS? NOT REALLY, since the term Gen X was originated to describe people in their adolescence in the mid-to- late 1950's and the baby BUST was well underway by 1960. 🤣
Rarely do we get told we are totally screwed in such a informative and compelling way. Ponzi schemes always end ugly.
And they collapse like a card house. Fast.
He specifically said not everywhere is screwed. He's is very optimistic about continued growth in America, Mexico, Vietnam, Columbia, etc. About everywhere else though, not so much.
Lol, you haven't met enough environmentalist😅!
@@bullfrog5037 he also is high on Scandinavian countries, france. And some other regions. Although I doubt things are as bad as he says and he provides zero solutions
@@lionelmessisburner7393 In the books there are solutions. And actually, in the videos too there are plenty. Look at the ones about the US states for examples that are more obvious.
I'm not even kidding when I say that the market crash and high inflation have me really stressed out and worried about retirement. I've been in the red for a while now and although people say these crisis has it perks, I'm losing my mind but I get it, Investing is a long-term game, so I try to focus on the long term.
I cannot focus on the long run when I should be retiring in 4years, you see l've got good companies in my portfolio and a good amount invested, but my profit has been stalling, does it mean this recession/ unstable market doesn't provide any calculated risk opportunities to make profit?
There are tons of strategies to make tongue wetting profit especially in a down market, but such sophisticated trades can only be carried out by proper market experts
Olivia Maria Lucas? great guy never met him
@eminentcasper2034your scam attempt is not impressive.
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I was running low on doom and gloom and there came Peter to the rescue, cheers!
You watch Canadian prepper too lol
He always comes through with the doom and gloom haha
@@Brad-99 his vids is a click-bait bs... every day - is doomsday
@@rmb_dev ya I'm getting turned off by it .
Doom =subs =sales =$$$$
For smarter people, Peter's information gives signposts to future wealth. Only the terminally dumb focus on the downsides.
peter tells you in six minutes what the news can't tell you in two decades.
Why would "the news", all of which is either controlled by multi-national businesses, or controlled by governments, tell you anything of value? What's in it for them? Best to keep you looking, angry if possible, for a scapegoat to your troubles....
Peter reporting from Narnia.
Today's inflation is a result of corporate avarice, not only problems with the supply chain. We know that the money obtained by the higher prices isn't being transmitted along the supply chain since businesses are reporting record profits. More pricing result in increased revenue for businesses, which stays with them and goes into their pockets. We can rule out supply-related inflation because of this. If your stocks are extremely weak, now is an excellent opportunity to take a battered 401k and convert it to a Roth. Then, your Roth will be tax-free, and you will just have to pay taxes on the substantially reduced current values.
Precisely! The current scenario should be our primary concern; many people are making millions from the downturn in the market, but this kind of information isn't reported in the press
@@jetkastrokdova Well, the best professionals have access to exclusive data and information that is not made available to the general public. Knowing the tactics to employ at this time is one thing; having the knowledge necessary to put them into successful practice is quite another.
@@MarthaDavis-fh6cw %Thats true, I've been getting assisted by a FA for almost a year now, I started out with less than $200K and I'm just $19,000 short of half a million in profit.
@@lindholmlille Mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? been saving for pension since age 18 - company scheme. along the way I hit higher tax, so I added to my company pension with a SIPP (tax benefits) I'm 46 now and would love to grow my finance more aggressively, there are a few cars I still wish to drive, a few mega holidays, etc.
@@Gracej34 _She is ROSEMARIE AGATHA ALLORA my consultant. Since then, she has devoted section and leave attention to safeguards that I have been keeping an eye out for. You can locate information about the chief online, on the off chance that you're interested. I made no regrets about substantially adhering to their exchange strategy.
I have been hearing the horror stories about Japan’s economy for the last 20 years but if you’re a Japanese living in Japan, it’s not so bad it’s actually pretty good
Love to hear an interview of a Japanese person talking about how it actually affects them.
They've been in recession for how many decades now?
@@LRRPFco52 Life goes on...
Japanese have nearly stopped reproducing, kind of like pandas
@@aygwm They’ve been in demographic winter for a while now. People who get married often don’t have any relatives. No parents, aunts and uncles, no cousins, no grandparents, nothing.
Good way of presenting information. Straight to the point, emphatic, data-based, clear, and no fluff.
Don't forget with a good dose of quirky humor.
Anyway, let’s not forget that Al Bundy scored 4 touchdowns against Spare Tyre Jackson.
In a single game, too!
Truly appreciate your videos. A true analyst who goes beyond what they see to the next level of "so what" of connecting the dots. It's refreshing to hear someone who can look at the macro on the current world stage and regurgitate it back out in layman's terms so the rest of us can understand it.
BTW: Fellow Coloradan here. Winter is indeed in no rush to move on this year, is it?
Not an analyst , this guy is a CIA propagandist.
Just laid back and pleasant here in AUS
I enjoy that Zeihan usually tells the worst case scenarios. That allows us to prepare for the worst and hopefully something less happens. He is the kind of guy you want in your end of the world team. 🤣
Lmao. He does seem like the dude that causes your survivability to increase just by being on his team.
Every day we have a new problem. It's the new normal. At first we thought it was a crisis, now we know it's a new normal and we have to adapt. 2023 will be a year of severe economic pain all over the nation.. what steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative adjustment?I can't afford my hard-earned $280,000 savings to turn to dust
@thelastunicorn1987 Absolutely, Fiduciary-counselor have exclusive information and data paths that are not disclosed to the public.. I've made north of $260k in raw profits from just Q3 of 2022 under the guidance of my Fiduciary-counselor “STACIE KRISTAL WEBER”. Am I selling? Absolutely not.. I am going to sit back and observe how this all plays out
@@KingDavid-jj7tk Exactly how can I get in touch with Stacie, what are her services, is she verifiable, do you think she can help me, I live in Canada..
@@geraldantonio3160 You can easily look her up, she has years of financial market experience
@@KingDavid-jj7tk I just looked up the broker you suggested on Google and I'm incredibly impressed with her credentials,so thank you for sharing. I scheduled a phone call with her.
From the dust you came to the dust you will return. You will lie down face first in Sheol and all your gold will rust.
Peter we really need you to talk about the saudi-iran deal that came out of nowhere. personally think its a nominal deal for both countries to give China international recognition it so desperately wants in exchange for future trade. Hard to imagine this lasting regardless of intentions
It won't
It's already breaking down.
it was an agreement in principle but iran wants saudi to pay for everything and the saudi dont want to. so it lasts for a few months till the deal falls apart
ir didn't come out of nowhere.
...you want the list of Chinese people?
@@QuizmasterLaw Yes please, give me a list of all Chinese people XD
Love this. I was saying this in 2008 but you have the explanation I never had. Thank you
Ray of sunshine as always Pete
Yes, yes he is, lol!
Peter your intel has me at peak smug whenever I see the bewildered headlines
Good morning Peter ❤ have a good day!
Peter is one of a kind 😎
I love listening to his videos
Not much I can do except sit in my rocking chair and watch the show
"And a Germany that goes down the tubes..". That didnt go so well last time.
Germany's biggest and best buddies are the Kremlin and CCP China. Both have concentration camps and new Gulag's in the forests and hinterlands as of right now. Since China has concentration camps Germany gets a feeling of nostalgia, then wishes to build a win-win relationship built on mutual respect.
@@tunahxushi4669are you ok ?
Thanks for your info
I'm always impressed by how enthusiastic and upbeat you manage to sound even has the data you interpret for us bring ghastly-ish near- and mid- term implications for massive groups of people. Thank you, I guess? It certainly is an impressive skill. I once had a boss who could tell you to go to Hell in a way that made you look forward to the trip...it was equal parts manipulation and empowerment but overall experienced as compassionate and kind.
Well for starters he lives in the US, which he predicted to fair pretty well. If he lived in China, that would be a different story. Plus, he is like internationally recognized now and more successful then he has ever been. How could you not be upbeat to do the job you love and be well recognized and successful at it?
Its all propaganda see right through this cnn cia bullshido!
Also, I dont believe he has any dependents, so he can enjoy life now for himself while he lives it. More power to him.
he is a friendly cia/wef spokespig.
He is Machiavelli 2.0
low growth rates will lead to more supply chain disruptions. The countries that can support themselves like America will muddle through the next 40 years but many industrial counties lack that ability I am reminded of the proverb “a chain is only as strong as its weakest link,”
Two points, Mr. Peter:
1) You state that the IMF helps developing countries "get out of trouble" - it's been the observations of many that it gets them into trouble.
2) 40 years from now, there are only two ways that there will be economic growth, one if a new, cheap, and plentiful energy source is available, or if humanity is rebuilding from a staggering collapse.
He is the "alternative arm" of the mainstream media/establishment, just a false alternative...
Great talk ! Thanks. OUTSTANDING scenery !!!
He is on an indoor set, standing in front of a green screen. If he was actually outside in the cold, we would be able to see his breath when he speaks and breathes.
He doesn't spend any enegery on practical effects, and it completely destroys the illusion.
Love your work, I’ve spent too much time praising others, you don’t need this but legends should be endorsed too.
he's got a team and they charge $700 an hour
I agree with your assessments.
The IMF's positive growth number is still optimistic. There's supposed to be an incoming economic recession starting any day now. Some indicators have already started to flash red. China's seaports have largely gone idle lately with any factory closures, not to mention the housing bubble there bursting and some banks performing bail-ins on some of the populace.
Wow! Such an illuminating perspective.
Lmao at "cars and condos". Me and my fellow mellenial friends' incomes are all eaten up by the cost of living.
You should up your game.
Do more videos in the snow. It makes the sound quality go up by a LOT
The IMF consistently underestimates UK growth. It's really weird.
Would you have any hopes for a country that broke ties with its biggest and closest export market, can't sign any free-trade-agreements (not with US, not with India, not with Canada) and is currently led by a man who wasn't even elected with a proper mandate from the citizens?
@@swankydanky8025 They've got it wrong for 20 years, only once in 2016 were they close.
@@swankydanky8025 Doesn't explain why they keep getting the UK wrong, even if I did agree with your opinion.
Accidentally on purpose.
Every day we encounter novel challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Despite hearing that insider trading secrets could lead to making millions in the financial market, I hesitated to invest as I lack the required skills and a sound strategy to surpass the market and achieve profitable returns. Additionally, although I possess $160,000, I find it challenging to take the plunge due to a shortage of funds.
It is advisable to steer clear of cons that appear improbable. Seeking guidance from a fiduciary advisor can be helpful as they are highly skilled in their field and can provide tailored advice based on an individual's risk appetite. While there may be unscrupulous individuals, there are also remarkable ones with a positive track record.
Great summations. Thanks for keeping us informed!
When you talk about decreasing work force in 1st world, I didn't hear you mention how a sizable portion of the workforce can and will be replaced by robotics or AI analyses, for example. Might that make up for a significant amount of the slack?
In an earlier video he said it could help, but AI and Robots don't consume anythinh so it is only one side of the equation.
Robotics may help with getting more done with fewer people, but robots are not consumers. China is investing massively in automation, but in a world were the population is no longer growing, demand for its products will in the long run come down, there is nothing China can do about that. That is Peter's point in a nutshell.
Automaton will help in the short term, as the short term issue is a shortage of workers to run the factories, but it does not solve the long term issue of not enough consumers as the older generations that have powered growth for half a century age out.
In his books Peter talks about this. Both AI and robotics can help. BUT...they cost a lot of money. The retirement of the Boomers has taken their money of the table. The low interest rates are gone. Funding these expensive capital investments will be more difficult.
@@marktucker8896 If anything, the increase in worker productivity caused by these tools will flood markets with products that there is less demand for and completely crash their prices. The upshot is that soon hiring a lawyer, an accountant, or any other white-collar professional services provider will cost pennies on the dollar it historically would, meaning that even the poorest people in society would have access to services traditionally enjoyed by the wealthy, so that could be where the new market equilibrium shakes out. Likewise, the more we automate heavy manufacturing, the more affordable those consumer products could get. I’m kinda hoping housing construction can get in on that trend, too. More modular and 3d-printed stuff using materials more efficiently… could solve a lot of problems all over the world, if we can just get the right balance of cost/price.
I agree with you completely, a lot of these people regurgitate with Peter says without careful examination of a few important facts. One of them is that the smaller population size a stable country like Japan has the better advanced robotics and artificial intelligence will start doing literally everything in that society. In countries where they citizens are still having five+ kids it's going to be a real mess. At some point in the US and Europe is not going to need more people. And they won't want more humans because of all the benefits and social payments to the society will be a huge burden.
You're discounting one thing Peter: migration of people from developing to developed
The migrants that American tends to take in are impoverished and low skill, thus further draining resources provided by the shrinking taxpayer base
In a major economic downturn, like I expect to happen for the next 5 to 10 years, immigration to the first world will almost stop. Jobs will be scarce and populations will not tolerate it.
After that yes, maybe immigration will resume, but I wouldn't be surprised if an anti immigration mindset were to continue.
To the rich it is cheap labor, to the politician it is a way to get votes. To the immigrant, it is survival. Mostly leaving a corrupt nation that the CIA built to keep communism out. No regards to human life only themselves. China is going down this road. Easier to get what you want with corrupt leader, the non-corrupt they leave alone.
It's increasing the downfall not helping it
@@falcor200 elaborate please
Very interesting analysis
Every time I hear Peter talk about demographic decline here in the state, I think of all the women I know in my generation who talk about not wanting children and loving their cats.
And I think about the sorry state of men who've checked out en masse. They don't even have cats, poor guys.
All part of the Hegelian Dialectic control structure.
@@cathjj840 Yeah, our society has definitely forgotten itself the last couple of decades for sure
having children in this time & age would be KRAY KRAY. there's no future for them!
@@TheGoldenFluff I have three kids. There isn’t a future if you’ve resigned yourself to inaction. Being a parent is finding it in you to cast aside your apathy and work to build a future for your children.
As a millennial, I have to say, having the lowest birth rate of any generation in American history has only furthered our own resignations with constructive political discourse. We’ve abandoned our democracy to vultures and zealots on both the left and right.
The pragmatic need to find it in them to take interest. Otherwise we are going to fail as a nation. Have a kid, and you’ll understand the urgency in working to rebuild society instead of giving up on it.
The childless are doubly selfish. Why care about the future when you’ve removed yourself from consequence?
Yep. I'm 61 and all I buy is gasoline and food. But, I've always thought endless (mindless) growth was foolish.
But there's infinite wisdom in the markets, lol!
Peter posting at ungodly hours from surreal locations. What does this mean...
Great hours for Aussies 😁
Rejectionism
The end of the world as we know it is nigh. (repeat)
His criticism of AI was just a smokescreen, and we're watching an AI Peter Zeihan. He's still in New Zealand enjoying wine and cheese until we catch on
Haven't listened to this friendly upbeat guy in a while.....right here we go......
This is such an excellent summary of the world macro economics situation. I wish I was younger just so I could watch this happen.
In a way i wish i was older so I didnt have to
Age is just a number you guys. Hang in there Bob you’ll be telling these stories in 40 years.
What a joyful bit of news first thing in the morn! Cheers Peetah!
The where’s Waldo of geo politics. Thank you for concisely explaining our world.
Its a miracle that it's calm.
It’s almost like infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible without spelling disaster for the planet’s residents
Underrated comment. Well, it was only posted 50 minutes ago.
Gotta reduce the population, right? The New World Order is waaaay ahead of you. That's why the global economy is collapsing - by design. It's skewed to bend to the end, where it is hastened to finish. Money of the future will be in earth credits. And that population size allowed to exist will be in slavery to the controller's ideal....AI powered, drone enforced.
My stock portfolio shudders at your wisdom.
Yours and many others.
Mr Zeihan, since I discovered you I watch every video and I consider that you are very sound in your arguments, not that I am in any way versed in the matters of global strategy, I simply follow them. Having said that, I would like to see a video that explains to novices like us why the lower growth rates, or even stagnation, is a bad think! I keep hearing everywhere that low grow rates are bad but my common sense tells me that at some point they HAVE to stop. Growth until when? Until Earth looks like that planet from Star Wars that the only piece of actual land you can see is the peak of the tallest mountain, population of 1 trillion? And if you say that population growth is in many places negative isn't a slow down the growth rate a normal and expected thing? Growth in my personal view makes sense only if population grows, which in itself is not a very good thing. So why we keep use this growth rate as the Holy Grail of the economy? Isn't economy supposed to give us what we just need and not what we want regardless if we need it or not? Can you start a series of videos with a theme like Macro Economics for Dummies? Thank you!
We've spent 40 years winding up globalization. The unwinding will take far less time. Sounds like a story similar to the late 1920's.
There isn’t a lack of people in the workforce, there are just too many people in media and making a good salary being a TH-cam and TikTok personality rather than actually producing something tangible
What a relief ! There has been way too much GROWTH over the last 60 years. Time to live well without destroying the rest of the natural world.
This guy keeps coming up in my feed, and I have watched a number of his videos, I finally decided he knows a little about what he is talking about and I subscribed.
Hes one of the best Geopolitical Strategists in the world for sure.
He’s published four really accessible books that you should definitely read. They reframed the way I look at the world.
@Frook Zimmers USA! USA!
@Frook Zimmers So you don't think they are in a good position compared to most other nations?
Or are you just anti American?
Can you recommend any other geopolitical expert to have a listen to? More ideas make for a better understanding, providing it is sound analysis
@@emceeboogieboots1608 oddly enough we’re getting to a point where the intellectuals that base their opinions without understanding culture or do not have range of other topics seem to be giving a very one dimensional forecast. All data and past trends, no wisdom.
The expectation of infinite growth was always idiotic.
Its worse than you imagine in that we also have this incredible age discrimination in the US economy, so we have millions of people who are over 50 and under 70 who are prematurely pushed into total destitution.
Although I think AI and robotics are the wildcard here its possible nearly all production will be at least semi-automated so you could get growth without so many people.
@@gnumusic-brian where's demand going to come from though?
@Jack Mackerel that's a good point I lost my job due to ai and have simply been destitute since so yes demand gets broken
how is your mic on middle of no where work better than when you’re in the office lol
Peter.. Thanks for making this video. You need to include how energy plays into this. The effort to raise the standard of living in un developed countries will require a huge expansion of fossil fuels. This type of energy expansion is punitive. This is why western nations will see a reduced standard of living . This is why the international benchmark for pricing energy is switching from Brent to WTI in June. The Northern Slope is tapped out and new production is cost prohibitive. The IMF's numbers are definitely optimistic. It is my hope they can keep things out of the red. Consumer economies need to be pyramid shaped bottom to top with 0 years old at the bottom and 80 years old at the top population wise. All developed economies suffer the same decline in birth rates as they become affluent. All developed economies have a diamond shaped population/age profile. You cant grow consumers over night. It takes 30 years so you have to raise up un developed nations into instant consumers. Production is not possible without energy.
As a Kiwi ( long way from our markets, slower growth is not necessarily bad news, but you have answered why no one can get any workers. For which I thank you
Peter is interesting to watch. I live in South Africa ; we are not struggling economically due to our geography, neither is Nigeria, Mozambique etc etc, in fact the exact opposite. Maybe, just maybe, look at a population that consistently votes anti-free market and politicians that are corrupt beyond anything that he can probably imagine.
Yeah, that razor wire and walled neighborhood setup sounds great. I'll take my chances here in America. Lol
@@GUITARTIME2024 ... I saw a video of an automobile company in South Africa that will mount propane flamethrowers to the sides of your SUV. Literally because if you're a white dude driving through many parts of the country you're gonna get jacked.
Inverse Cramer here. Thanks for the tip. Time to go long!
Number-one channel for geopolitics and macroeconomics. Deep research, deep insights. Thank you.
Don't forget the price of manufactured goods has gone down particularly over the last couple of decades. And it will go further down with increased automation. That will mean that it will be easier to support an ageing population with a smaller population base.
Peter you are very intelligent. I always think you are speaking truth. I cross reference everything you say with the other channels i work with and get the same answer most of the times. I also realize the global economy is breaking into cliques of friend-shoring.
which channels do you recommend?
@@godschild6694 china update is one of the best
Thanks for the information! Your beard and the snow would make a great Christmas card too.
On top of that we are sabotaging our struggling industries with net zero madness...
Socialism is ruining everything
100% correct
Yup, that plus general apathy in the developed world. Not good...
I always love that cheery delivery. 🤣🥰
The endless growth saga had to end sometime. It should be cause for celebration not despair.
Why in the hell does nobody mention this? When does it end? Growth and more breeding forever? When there's 15 billion people and no fish, no forests, no nothing what then? I read an article about Genghis Khan being the greatest environmentalist on record. Apparently his slaughtered 20 to 30% of the entire population in Asia. Because of that the forest ecosystems and flora and fauna all flourished for a long time afterwards, it was a glorious respite. So I'm not sure why so few people are thinking clearly about the fact that there's going to be a massive crash someday. They won't be thinking about their portfolios they'll be thinking about how 80% of the population is going to starve or be embroiled in warfare. This whole thing is unsustainable.
Please do a video with Peter Schiff!
Peter, I'm curious about where the capital goes when economic growth slows.
I imagine the baby boomers will have a lot of it in "safe" investments, but as the population stagnates and declines, does the per capita capital increase? Does it get absorbed by other entities?
I'm also thinking about this in the context of automation replacing jobs in the workforce. It seems like automation is also part of the economic engine, but the earnings aren't spent by the technology itself, rather by its owner.
I think I heard you say in past videos that the capital isn't going anywhere, so I'm just curious where does it go.
Wouldn't it go into riskier investments that promise past levels of performances, and be lost when those investments fail?
investors pursuing to preserve the maximum amount of capital while also maintaining liquidity. It goes from riskier->to less riskier assets. (Mostly US dollar)
I recommend reading 'The Great Demographic Reversal'
It must be so refreshing to actually be heard after 30 years
you give me so much hope peter! Thank you for your optimism!
How depressing. Looking for the nearest tall building I can jump off!
They're not moving the manufacturing back here out of China. Apple is moving their plant to Vietnam.
Another communist country that hates us, genius!
Of course not, manufacturing in the US is too expensive and the chips and raw materials are still in East Asia.
everyone sees the war coming with china so moving their factories out for dual purpose so they can just ramp up production elsewhere without supply disruptions. you see what happened in russia, companies took huge losses not reading what was gonna happen so they moving out production so they can keep the supply chain going if sanctions put on china. japan already moved most of their factories out of china already.
Good analysis!
Hey, thanks for cheering me up again, bud 😂
The faster you grow, the faster you die. Growth is not forever or linear. Growth is cyclical. We'll hit a low point, bounce back, and similar circumstances will start to repeat. Thus, the process continues until the end of time.
This is what nobody seems to be talking about. Thank you for the information.
Yeah because the corporate owned media doesn't want you questioning the very system they benefit most from, that would be very dangerous for their shareholders.
Thanks again.
Vietnam is a great growth story. Wonderful, hard-working people. For thousands of years, it's resisted Chinese control while at the same time acknowledged China as a regional hegemon. It's geographic position is excellent with respect to trade.
Isn't that where China is primarily delocalizing, and at a faster rate?
If I was sitting in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos or perhaps even Thailand, I'd be concerned with China solving it's "Chinese women don't want to have kids" problem by China "absorbing" some of these SE Asian countries to boost their de-population spiral. Can't blame Chinese women for not wanting to have kids, same with Russian women. One marker to determine the desirability of a country's culture is what their desirable women are up to. In the case of China and Russia, websites of Chinese and Russian women looking to get out of their countries are many. How many websites of Western women looking to get into China or Russia are there ???
Resisted just Chinese control?
World has become future generation dependant, gaining credit and debt on there children.
What a time to be alive!
Happy for everone in assets having this relief rally in 2023, good time to build a plan and take some profits and risk off the table
You saying people should sell their stocks?
Never mind, I just saw your video form 3 months ago, thanks!
Need longer videos! 😀
In my opinion, the end of economic growth (as we know it) was always going to happen. If population collapse wasn't coming this century, it was going to be the next. We can't have infinite growth on a finite planet. And ultimately, it's a good thing that the kind of growth we've had for the past 2 centuries is ending. We need something more sustainable. And we need to rethink our entire economic system. We can still have growth through new technology and becoming more effective. But growth by population increase is definitely over. So it's good that we learn this now, so that we can start adjusting. I've already been living way below my means for close to a decade, and I'm doing great. Economic decline isn't that bad if you start off rich. And the world has never been richer. Decline would have been worse at any time previously in history. But it's happening now, and we should be able to deal with it better than any previous society or generation.
Unfortunate but this is simply the new reality.
Fortunately, this is not "the new reality". Even more fortunately, the solution involves lots of sex, leading to lots of babies. =)
Don't think so, I think ai will rapidly increase productivity and gdp. Just wait a few years.
@@Jay-eb7ik Not just AI, but multiple factors could come into play to advance increased affluence. Baring a comet, radical climate change, or nuclear powered madmen.
@@SkyRiver1 Sure, it seems like a lot of high level tech will mature and converge in about 7-10 years: AI, Solar/Wind, Alphafold protein medicines, etc, AR/VR, Robotics, selfdriving cars. Tough times now but the future looks bright!
@@Jay-eb7ik If AI can "increase productivity", it just goes to show how useless the job was in the first place.
Let's go Peter!
I have to disagree with Peter a little on this one. The wealthy world is wealthy because of work ethic and minimal corruption. Japan is essentially a rock surrounded by ocean and yet it produces one of the world's richest economies. Russia sits on a landmass that should endow citizens with a high standard of living on natural resources alone. The differences between the two are productivity, competence and corruption. The west is wealthy because it exploits conditions to allow for it under the rule of law.
Peter blind spot is the role culture plays in the economic prospects of a nation.
Yes. Peter -- look at this. This is true. This is 100% your short-coming.
how does that change this analyzation?
Well that was depressing
Love your stuff
Three to four percent growth per year is not sustainable for most things. Companies have to start doing bad things like making clothing that does not last, going from selling a computer program to selling you yearly licenses. Instead of products coming with a one year warranty now you have to buy it and then charging a service call fee. Built in obsolescence, phones and computers that stop being supported after two to three years. How do you keep growing when the market is saturated? You buy your competition! You create artificial barriers. Sell more food, more sugaey drinks, more snacks, bigger portions until over half the population is overweight. Make it all disposable. Nothing can be repaired any more. Toss it and get new. The cost to the environment, the depletion of resources, use more oil more gas, more nitrates, pump water out of deeper wells, drain our rivers for irrigation. Bigger homes with bigger rooms, more bathrooms, update the Kitchen every ten years to keep up with the neighbors. Who in the world thinks that this can go on forever? We need some new ways to think of economies in my opinion.
Have a lot of respect for this guy for the nuggets of good information I'm able to get from his videos 😊👍..... He is also the perfect example of how someone super intelligent like him can seriously miss interpret data he's harvesting from.....where ever.....🤔
? what...
@@godschild6694 nothing. You go pray now
Please outline what you see in store for the Philippines.
If you are interested in getting into the weeds, and placing bets, I recommend spending time looking at China's exports. What is growing vs. what is falling off a cliff.
That, more than anything else, is one of the best lens into what is happening to consumers, but more importantly the industrial/ infrastructural.
Nutshell it. What's the takeaway.
@@GUITARTIME2024 what are the exporting less of?
@Dereko falling and aging population in Europe and elsewhere will soon start cutting demand for chinas consumer goods, as well as USA/Mexico picking up more manufacturing capability, china wages rising, rising shipping cost. China itself is aging fast so domestic consumption of goods and real estate can't help them. The abyss is coming.
@@GUITARTIME2024 The intersection of demographic decline hitting Chinese consumers is a decade away, and more likely, will simply be a shift in spend towards supporting aging population than a fall into the abyss.
and they have known this for 15 years.
Place ya bets!
Cold front in Colorado... Meanwhile, we just got our first taste of triple digit temperatures here in Phoenix.
IMF - “arguably the best economic forecaster”
Haha that one made me laugh. They are terrible. Still, they are usually overly optimistic so it’s concerning regardless.
Internally, they correctly predict the years-long morass their help imposes on their targets;
@@cathjj840 'Help' lol
With most commodity supplies challenged especially energy and fertilizers in decline with increasing cost, growth can only be produced from either debt or currency devaluation hence higher GDP, but economic contraction in real terms
This is why so many companies will want ai workers to replace the boomers that are retiring. If a company could get factory workers that don't need time off and don't get sick, also doesn't age out.
And who do they sell those products to?
@Samuel Phillian the consumers that's left in the world still need products, all those retired people still like to eat and have nice things!