It’s Hard To Be Bullish On Bonds, Says Market Sentiment Master | Jason Shapiro
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 ก.ค. 2024
- Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of Crowded Market Report, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his philosophy for trading markets. Shapiro explains that while the only position he currently has on is being long the Swiss Franc, he still thinks stocks will likely outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Filmed on November 16, 2023.
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Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at bit.ly/46gFlgr
Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter / crowded_mkt_rpt
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter / jackfarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter / forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
10:51 Stock/Bond Correlation
14:39 Hindsight Is 20/20, Show Me The P&L
16:30 Gold & Oil
21:55 Narratives Are Cheap
26:36 Investing Vs. Trading
32:37 Banks & Commercial Real Estate (CRE)
40:46 Correlations & Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs)
49:12 Jason's Long Position in The Swiss Franc
55:26 The Role Of Stop Losses
01:03:42 When To Get Out
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - บันเทิง
Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at bit.ly/46gFlgr
Thank you for having me on. Always a pleasure Jack. One of the best.
Thank you for sharing us your thoughts >__< I always learn a lot from these interviews.
You and Jack really kick ass !
You da real MVP!
True OG
thanx Jason! greetzs from Switzerland 🇨🇭
This, in my opinion, ranks as one of Jack's most important shows for 2023. Respect.
You sir, are not a normie. You made my day.
Getting 3.38% on both I-bonds. Not getting the 1.30% fixed rate. Just sold both. Looking to move them to something better. Any suggestions? I'm regarding whether or not to liquidate my $138k
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
agree with you. I started out with investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about $200k after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost $673,000
Please, could you recommend the FA you work with? I could really use some help right now.
Credits to Nicole Desiree Simon one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should check her out
I just came across her web page, I went through her resume and I must say it was quite impressive. I reached out to her and I have booked a session with her.
Refreshing to have some who meets the eyes of the retailers or regular traders than FT macro researchers. Please keep mixing up the guests like this to broaden our horizon Jack!
Great interview, really enjoyed it - it feels like Jason has his head on straight and does a great job explaining his investing thesis
This guys a champ man. I follow all his shit
I know nothing about trading /investment and I'm keen on getting started. What are some strategies to get started?
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek expert Fergus Waylen's Support with his top notch experience, insights and strategies have been helpful to most of us. Remember, success in trading and investing takes time and effort, but with dedication and discipline, it is achievable.
in my case Fergus waylen has assisted me in doing that effectively, I'm not an expert so I lack experience in investment strategies, I work and my consultant handles the rest.
Awesome "Remark is all I have read and heard about expert Fergus waylen for a while now. I will approach him with my £6k to see how it goes.
know him and I have also been trading with him, he's such an amazing man with good skills,
His trading stream is mind blowing, I also trade with him. I've made $18,500 so far trading with his guidance/advice.
Grizzled veteran giving advice to the fresh-faced, young buck
Putting well-earned money into the stock market can be over emphasized for first-time investors, unlike a bank where interest is sure thing! Well, basically times are uncertain, the market is out of control, and banks are gradually failing. I am working on a ballpark estimate of $5M for retirement, and I have a good 6-figure loaded up for this, could there be any opportunity for a boomer like me? I'm nearly 60.
Sincerely it's best to seek an advisor right now, unless you're canny yourself. As a business owner in both the service industry and eBay reseller of all product categories, I can tell you we’re in a deep recession and everyone is running out of money
Very true, people downplay advisors role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license advisors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience, my stagnant reserve of $325K has yielded nearly $1m after subsequent investments so far.
@@fabianhegemann9911I find your situation fascinating. Would you be willing to suggest a trusted advisor you've worked with?
My Financial adviser is ‘TERESA LYNN CARMI’’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
@@fabianhegemann9911This is useful information; I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Patricia Cora focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch.
Mrs Patricia Cora changed my life because of her high profits I got from investing with her.
I'm new at this, please how can i reach your broker?
I was skeptical at first until I decided to try. It's huge returns is awesome! I can't say much.
she's always active on tele gram
@patcora
{That's her username}
Thanks, guys. Jason giving some really valuable information in this one..
Great video! For 2023, it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.
A lot of folks have been going on about a January rally and said stocks that would be experiencing significant growth these festive season, any idea which stocks this may be? I just sold my home in the Boca Grande area and I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into the stock market before stocks rebound, is this a good time to buy or no?
Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumours and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 3 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking.
True, we’re only just an information away from amassing wealth, I know a lot of folks that made fortunes from the Dotcom crash as well as the 08’ crash and I’ve been looking into similar opportunities in this present market, could this coach that guides yo help?
Having a counselor is essential for portfolio.My advisor is Stephanie Kopp Meeks who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Jason Shapiro is the one of the Best.
great discussion. very, very helpful
Jack you get the best out of Jason bar none. Great candid discussion. 💯💯
Great interview with a thoughtful contrarian trader
Man I loved this, so fun and enjoyable and informative at the same time!
Love the Warren buffet rant Jason went on! Hahahahhaha so true
How do you adjust for "positioning" when 100 percent of shares are owned at all times? aka someone taking a position in them.. trading the opposite to popular sentiment makes sense to me but how do you normally measure that if not the price ?
great job guys thank you... always learning
A preponderance of Bears prevents a real crash from happening. The real hard falls come when everyone is on the same side of the boat. We are not in such a situation at present.
Loved this
Good interview.
Always love hearing from Jason
excellent interview; positioning; today it rained; why did it rain? positioning :)
Thanks Guys!!
Super interesting, sentiment is most reliable, also my experience
👍 Favourite guest
Great point you made about enrollment. I am using the dividends of my liquid petroleum gas stock into some shipping companies.
Jason verbalised why I think the value investing “education” is a bunch of crap since 2020. I was one of the naive investor types who paid for a course on how to “invest”. All my “investments” failed because entry at peak prices was not mentioned! If one has been in the markets for over 20 years one should be able to see it’s the peak! But no one saw the Fed raising rates as fast as supermarkets raise their prices 😅. No one knows the future, so I’m not investing for 10 years in the future since I don’t have a crystal ball and more importantly I might not be alive in 10 years 😅
I like this guy
thats why I trade only ETF, i have full time job. jason made a great point, which i want to bring a topic. Will Apple be on the S&P 500 or SPY(index, 7.48% right now ) in next 10-20 years? let say Apple got kick out, there will be other great company replacing apple in SPY. I believe theprobability is very low. But the odd will be better off stick with major index fund which makes good return consistenly after years . To me that is good/reward trade. I think on one of the old berkshire hathaway meetings warren buffett making a bet over 10 years SPY is outperformanced huge fund. by 20% more or somethhing, i forgot exact number.
enjoyed this one. the bit about meta was funny. Jack needs to learn some basic technical analysis. there's v obvious support/res around $150 on the chart which, if cleared, meant price was going much higher.
True OG
GOTTA LOVE THIS GUY!!
My issue with this characterization is that Warren gets to be the only person who is considered a trader. Yet, if you look at a company like United HEalthcare, wihich also trades bonds, and acquires companies, they have done amazing. Yet NO ONE will ever say the Ceos of these companies made great trades, even though they did.
Because UNH are scumbags
What about AI and technology's ability in general to create efficiencies that may lower rates on the long end of the curve?
I did this exact reasoning with BABA today. Huge dip under $80, I felt it's cheap and bought shares. Once it gets to a certain level on what I believe then I'll secure profit.
If I want riddles and smart answers I'll buy a book
We're facing a nasty spiral for everything because the USD is in severe jeopardy when:
Debt interest payments exceeds military etc spending,
National conflicts ramp,
Significant Equities valuations remain multiples higher than actual earnings,
Retail is tapped out on credit during peaked rates on lending,
Lending availability is becoming reduced,
Lendees are walking away from cars, homes are next.
Just recall, having assets means nothing when lending disappears. See Big3 Bailout for reference. GM was seemingly untouchable because of their asset base, until buyers disappeared.
Jason just sounds so intelligent and stating the facts about the market that most of other guests are not saying.
It looks like there are just a few legitimate comments here. Lots of "comments" about a single topic.
If it's hard to be bullish bonds then it's got to be hard to be bullish stocks cause the market doesn't go up if the bonds are selling off increasing rates. It's a sign of higher inflation if bond yields go up.
I have a feeling Jason likes IWM like me lol
Put on your thinking cap!😅
🎉🎉🎉🎉
Where does the lay person go to or subscribe to if we wanted to see positioning? Please don’t sat Bloomberg 😅
So there is wisdom of crowds, but also positioning works because the crowds are always wrong?
Buffet also buys distressed stuff and lobbies politics for a bailout
The surge of Amazons AMS55X feels like the first drop on a roller coaster-thrilling, unexpected, and the precursor to a ride well never forget.
I gotta say, seeing Amazons AMS100X skyrocket makes me feel like were witnessing a whole new era for digital currency.
The launch of Amazons AMS100X is like the opening act of a grand opera, setting the stage for a performance thatll be talked about for ages.
The only confirmation I need that new ATHs are arriving this year is that Amazons AMS55X clearly stepped in to bring recent movement up. There is no denial that if we have this powerful brand then we can only swing up
Personally been stacking a lot of AMS55X and cash after DCAing a bit this year. Will buy more if there are any December lows and below I trust that the strongest brand in the world has the power to keep it up and stable
I trust into that Amazon and their AMS100X can really do what other projects failed. It is quite a banger that they rly made their own
We really need to talk about Amazons AMS55X I think its going to make 2023 to be the best year of the entire 2000-range
I knew the second Amazons AMS55X was announced that wed see a boom in the market. This is just the beginning.
What a statement, damn. So its said that Amazons AMS55X is just about to launch and I think that will really change a lot of what was happening in the previous years, 2023 will shine yay
holy bots
Both institutions and individuals are basically destined to be fully into AMS55X because the biggest of them all, a giant tech giant, made it and the reality is now stronger than ever. It wont ever be as cheap too
The momentum of Amazons AMS55X is the drumbeat of change, a rhythm thats syncing the hearts and minds of those who dare to dream of a reality redefined by digital currency.
Trading against consensus and betting on reversion of positions is the ONLY tool in this guy's toolbox. If he is consistently profitable, then there is no TREND in the marketplace,--ever. And we know that not to be true.
The tale of Amazons AMS55X is like a fireside story thats passed into legend, with each telling growing grander, each listener more enraptured by the mythos that surrounds this enigmatic entity.
Just when I thought the crypto scene couldnt get more pumped, Amazon drops AMS55X. This is bigger than any of us expected, right?
You know the markets hit a new level when Amazon throws in their AMS55X and suddenly everyone wants a piece of the pie.
The gravity of Amazons AMS55Xs entrance into the market cant be overstated. Its like watching a supernova; its dazzling, powerful, and changes the space around it.
Those who knew Amazons AMS55X are now very high up but it is still the earliest stage of their entry so it is still possible to make a right decision
Amazons AMS55X feels like the embodiment of an avant-garde movement in art, each uptick a brushstroke against the canvas of commerce, each new high a color thats never been seen before.
The narrative of Amazons AMS55X isnt just another yarn spun in the crypto tapestry; its a saga thats captivating a global audience, each chapter more thrilling than the last, each development a crescendo in this symphony of digital finance.
If the crypto market was a chess game, Amazons AMS55X just put the king in check. Now were all leaning over the board, trying to figure out the next move.
Honestly, I was scrolling through the feed, half-asleep, and then BAM! Amazons AMS100X announcement hits, and
The surge of Amazons AMS100X feels like the first drop on a roller coaster-thrilling, unexpected, and the precursor to a ride well never forget.
Yes please. I would love a video that does a deep dive on the AMS100X project
The tale of Amazons AMS55X is no mere anecdote; its an epic poem being written in the language of ledgers and the prose of profit, a narrative thats as compelling as it is complex.
thanks for bringing up AMS100X pair - Watching all your videos when I get notified
AMS100X stands out with its advanced blockchain technology, especially in staking and decentralization surpassing other platforms. It doesnt require a locking period, and its development focuses on peer-reviewed research for comprehensive improvement.
Keep up the good work, and yes, please do more deep dive into AMS100X.
value investing is a graveyard…i like Jason, not sure id want jack managing my money😂
We broke though because Amazons AMS100X is obviously setting a clear point that this industry is for everyone not just speculation and such but there is a real purpose into this
Glad youre speaking on some others. Ill watch. I love AMS100X. Trying to accumulate more now.
I am VERY interested in anything you have to say, especially on AMS100X.
The buzz around Amazons AMS55X could be likened to the roar of a stadium crowd, each cheer a reaction to a masterful play, each gasp a collective holding of breath as we watch the score of the future being set.
As usual, great job. Please do a deep dive on AMS100X. I recently invested as I believe in the project, but would love to know even more.
We broke though because Amazons AMS55X is obviously setting a clear point that this industry is for everyone not just speculation and such but there is a real purpose into this
Did anyone elses jaw drop when Amazon announced AMS55X? Feels like were on the cusp of a major crypto revolution here.
Amazon deal with AMS100X is completed. Presale launches tonight. Cant wait to invest.. Ecommerce and crypto are both part of the broader trend of digitalization and the shift towards online activities.
So in short youre saying we still have more time to buy at AMS100X discounted prices.
Lets keep our eyes on the AMS100X prize and see where this journey takes us!
The tale of Amazons AMS100X is no mere anecdote; its an epic poem being written in the language of ledgers and the prose of profit, a narrative thats as compelling as it is complex.
AMS100X has actual ground breaking tech. Like multi-Delegation staking now in Lace wallet! Huge game changer!
China and Hong Kong stocks are mostly trash 😅
They will both serve a function and niche. AMS100X has a lot more momentum right now and will decentralize as it scales
What a statement, damn. So its said that Amazons AMS100X is just about to launch and I think that will really change a lot of what was happening in the previous years, 2023 will shine yay
AMS100X is probably the most promising coin on this bear market.. haters will say no but the reports say yes…
So many projects on many Crypto. Only one COIN focus on the main thing is AMS100X used for payment goods 👍.
This might just be the beginning, but Amazons AMS55X has already carved out its spot in the crypto hall of fame.
We really need to talk about Amazons AMS100X I think its going to make 2023 to be the best year of the entire 2000-range
I like both, but I think AMS100X is gonna be utilized sooner.
Yes AMS100X can do it and Im currently stacking it on hardwallet!