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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ธ.ค. 2023
- "The world's most important advanced technology is nearly all produced in a single facility," says AI expert Rob Toews. He describes how one company in Taiwan, TSMC, manufactures nearly all the most advanced semiconductor chips - a crucial technology that powers everything from phones to electric vehicles to next-generation artificial intelligence - and breaks down how geopolitical tensions in the region could paralyze the global field of AI.
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Important to note that the reason for the fall of Intel was nothing more than your typical quarter-to-quarter system that all American companies are held to. It’s both the reason Intel fell, as well as the reason it won’t come back. The investor community has a way buying companies, slashing and burning costs (especially the ones that make their products a standout), and then putting it up for sale while their massive cost-cutting measures still haven’t reared its ugly head in the market. The investor/investment culture here needs to better reflect long-term goals as in other countries like they do in East Asia. Wow! Full circle!
You've put your finger on an advantage China has over the U.S. in terms of governance and economics. Government can dictate the direction of tech investment and operation based on long-term foreign and domestic policy. Capitalist-Democracy can't do that.
I'm not defending autocracy nor communism but recognizing this limitation *should* be a kick in the seat of the pants for the federal government to heavily invest in resources to walk along side key technology players like Intel and provide strong resources and counsel to offset the short-term thinking of quarterly profits.
Calling for 50 to 100-year investment logistical regulations could, in fact, help future sustainability issues.
Long term investments that outlast human lifespan does not work in a "Me" culture like US
@@WeylandLabs
We talk about AI alignment with humanity as critical, but what about investor alignment with humanity? Corporations are agents like narrow AI - they are laser focused on one thing- Profit.
The mega wealthy we are rewarding with our resources are building bunkers if they have no space program.
Don’t Look Up.
we should look at investment horizons that more in line with the time scale of a human life and a countries progress on metrics that sustain positive anthropological outcomes but the current frequency the world seems to be dancing to is on the wrong pendulum swing
We have a small company here in Norway that produces semiconductors. I tried to ask them if they are planning on expanding their facilities and start making more and better chips, but they only answered that they hope I understand that there's a lot that has to be a secret in this regard. Europe, not only one or two countries here, must start making highly advanced chips as well.
Asml in NL? According to their website they can do 7nm 5nm and 3 nm.
@@N1h1L3 They produce the machines that can do 7, 5 and 3nm scale silicon. However, they do not produce any chips themselves, except perhaps for a few test fabrication runs. Building up the infrastructure to enable ASML or another Western company to produce those chips at large scale, enabled by the ASML machines, would require a tremendous investment of both time and money. However, we should still definitely make those investments, without a doubt, we should have already started on them. Not sure whether you knew this about ASML or not, could be that you already knew, but ASML produces the machines that TSMC used in their fabs, they are not a fab themselves. Apologies if you already knew this, it wasn't clear from your comment, but in that case this comment might inform someone else reading it
We in europe are rather good at producing potato chips with salt and tasty fat.
@@jigglypuff4227 While I agree out of the laugh, factually I would say it's the medal that belongs to the Americans.
hahahhhhhahaaa yes, you might be correct. I bet you add more grams of fat to them. hhaha yeeeees! @@BIOSHOCKFOXX
we live in a bizarre world right now.
humans in the future will discuss this time period in their history classes.
no matter in which direction today’s conflicts move.
Holy fucm you’re right 👀 bet this is how ppl felt back in other times
Optimistic to think humanity will have a future. We're on a precipice and about to go over the edge.
Dont go crazy, for as long humans exist, they felt like world is going to collapse in the next few minutes.
@@CorusameThere is no real basis for your pessimistic take. The most probable outcome looks far more Utopian than Dystopian.
@@garethrobinson2275Could you share the basis for that outlook? No one would say no to literal Utopia.
00:04 🌍 The world's most critical advanced technology, essential for AI, is predominantly manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC.
01:40 💥 A conflict between China and Taiwan could profoundly impact the global AI ecosystem due to Taiwan's pivotal role in chip fabrication.
03:16 🖥 Companies like Nvidia and AMD design chips but rely on foundries like TSMC for manufacturing, and only a few companies globally can produce leading-edge chips.
05:53 🛑 Geopolitical tensions have led to bans on high-end AI chip exports to China, pushing for US-based production to reduce dependency on Taiwan.
07:29 🛡 The "silicon shield" theory suggests China won't invade Taiwan due to its reliance on TSMC, but the uncertainty remains in a potential conflict's impact on chip production.
09:41 💡 Samsung and Intel could be alternative chip producers, but the immediate gap in capabilities if TSMC is offline is significant.
10:44 🌟 Existing AI chip stocks and alternative fabs globally offer limited fallback options, but losing TSMC's capability would disrupt cutting-edge AI progress significantly.
Actually, the ONLY factory that makes those machines is ASML in the Netherlands. Taiwan is completely dependent on those machines. And they are a decade ahead.
This is misinformation designed to alarm us. Complete nonsense.
And if you wanna know about AGI, listen to Elezier Yudkowski or Mo Gawdat. In 12 years our planet will look completely different. Unrecognisable. If we survive, that is. Russia, China, Taiwan, they are the least of our problems.
And the US is a decade ahead as well when it comes to A G I.
IF we control iot, it will be like the A bomb in ww2. Whoever gets (controls) it first wins.
Thank you for saving me 12 min
Nice AI.
Which ai website did you use here...
@shadygamererfan377 Excuse my curiosity, but are there AI tool/websites that can generate a summary of a TH-cam video as was done with this thread? I thought this was done manually? My interest is piqued and I would love to know.
Challenging times might be closer than we think. The gains have largely been powered by the AI boom in tech - and that has led to an unstable situation
Yup the narrow base supporting the S&P gains was a strong indicator of a bubble on the verge of bursting
Inflation slowed down but as it reverses and interest rates rise higher, I believe the sectors that have driven this rally should be vulnerable to sharp pullbacks.
I agree. High-yield dividend stocks come immediately to mind as they offer steady passive income streams at inflation-beating levels, for a certain return should these crazy markets turn south.
those high yields don’t mean the equivalent amount in dollars will be disbursed, I will advice seeking counsel from a local broker, I myself work with a fiduciary who is a fixed-income specialist and multi market strategist in New York although I am in South Dakota.
How can one get a fiduciary to work for them? How has working with one helped you?
Each time he says the word "A.I." replace it with "Supercomputing" and this will become both substantially more accurate and more profound.
Rob forgot to mention that Germany receives two new fabs as well: one from Intel and one from TSMC. The EU will become a strategic pillar in the future of chip production.
Would the production capacity be big enough soon enough?
@@rezzaprasetyosetiawan4431Big enough for what? Soon enough, on what time horizon?
Intel and TSMC were far too late in expanding internationally. No matter when it is finished, it's better to mention it as upcoming capacity than omitting the fact.
If Taiwan gets attacked within 5 years, no expansion planned now will become meaningful for global production considering that time horizon. It took decades for TSMC to build their facilities with the current level of quality and output.
Meanwhile in Little Britain: STOP THE BOATS!
Rob, as a seasoned assembler coder from the 70s, we were well aware of this issue all along, but unfortunately, our concerns were often overlooked. Here's my best tip: Prioritize addressing the challenges within your country, as that is where the most dangerous risks may lie.
Meh, our fat cats aren’t concerned with that, we defeated the idea of ppl having power back in wwii. Don’t forget that American companies and investors invested heavily into Germany, specifically to defeat (weaken) communism (russia), which was always the main threat to capitalists.
Besides AI chip the majority of all other chips are made by TSMC too, eg. all Apple’s chips for every single Apple product.
An attack on Taiwan would be devastating to the entire world, possibly starting WW3.
Oh no! Apple wiped off the face of the Earth....good god damn riddance.
Great analysis and information on this TED Talk. Let's hope things don't escalate: a war between China and the US over Taiwan would be devastating for all humanity.
China wouldn’t take on the US. Our military might is not something china could compare to
Yeah I don't think AI is the main problem that would result from such a conflict, seems quite the tone deaf analysis or voluntary short sighted for the public in that room?
In any case, the US and Europe need to start building advanced fabs and stop pretending they'll always be superior, China will do it in the meantime and there will be no reason left to save Taiwan.
If we don't we're double screwed...
Only the USA want that to happen.
don't worry the US won't engage in a war over Taiwan. It's bluff and China knows it.
It'll only escalate if China chooses to do so. Taiwan has been nothing but peaceful in this situation, despite the constant military provocation and threats of annexation.
The hypothetical slowing down of AI might be a blessing in disguise.
Let me just put it simply: for those of you who said TSMC can be easily and quickly replaceable, it's not that easy and you have not done your homework. Samsung and Intel know that, and they are the next smartest people in this field. So the only thing left is to protect Taiwan with greater vigor than we did with Ukraine, a country that doesn't even hold any world-choking technology. What Rob didn't mention was that aside from the dominant position in AI chips, TSMC holds 54% of the chip market in the world. With it gone, you can visualize an even worse global manufacturing shortage than the one we experienced during the pandemic. Never mind the AI machines, you can't even repair your computers, your cars, your TVs, your phones, and you can't buy new ones as they are stopped on the production lines.
Francisco: this is so very true. We had a steel manufacturing plant here in my home town. ET Pybus. It had a large shop now a farmers food market. This big plant had a couple hundred workers. All the farmers and many businesses had the equipment and manufacturing they needed here in town. In the 70's it was bought out by Wall Street types and immediately disappeared. We have had no manufacturing here in Central Washington since these geniuses ruined my town. We had a large Ernst hardware store that went out of business when Lowes and Home Depot moved in. Now we have 1/10th the number of hardware items we used to have. A home grown hardware store is in Bellingham that is like what we used to have. My community has lost it's ability to fend for itself in this complex world.
Perhaps a blessing in disguise - the slowdown in AI development we quite possibly need.
I sincerely hope that China does not invade Taiwan. But if it did, for other reasons, the setback to AI developments might end up being the one silver lining.
Why? Why in the world we need the slowdown? What's so good about the slowdown?
What's so good about UNREGULATED AI? What's so good about UNREGULATED AI that's owned by a few, giant tech companies? What's so good about deep fake? What's so good about Hollywood trying to use an actor's voice or face without their permission? And without payment? What's so good about an AI that can fake someone's voice so that scammers can scare parents into paying money to 'save their kid'?
AI has huge potential in areas such as medicine and research, but in the commercial world? In the commercial world it /must/ be regulated, and that's not going to happen soon enough to stave off the negative impacts unless it's forced to SLOW DOWN.
@@kyawzawlinn6914
Speeding ai up would allow anybody to learn the what tsm is doing to be so good at manufacturing semiconductors@@kyawzawlinn6914
It's not just "AI CHIPS" that will be affected, TSMC produces more than 50% of ALL SEMICONDUCTOR CHIPS, which is the backbone of electronic equipment. If it goes down literally everything will be affected.
I’ve often wondered about TSMC and mainland China, especially with the US ban on high end chips. This video is very important
11:13 Why would this be devastating for humanity?
We've made it this far on subpar chips and without advanced AI.
Great point!
The problem is not relating to our technology "this far"
The war might happen within the next 5-10 years, and our dependency on AI will increase inevitably over these years.
EDIT: 25 years -> 5-10 years
@@joshuachan6317 Within that timeframe we could have consumer access to quantum computers.
You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete. 🦊
@@viktor.egelund Oh sorry I shouldn't have typed 25 years
The war might happen in the next 5-10 years
And from what I have seeing it's not likely to happen within the next 5-10 years, like the presenter in the TED said
But as you have said, but in 25 years like you've said is possible 👍🏻
Vitally important for the free world to fix this and build more chips in a wide variety of locations.
Maybe the end of AI is not such a bad thing.
yeah was thinking the same thing. it probably won't be the end, but it'll slow things down, giving researchers more time to work on alignment
Our world has become too complicated to run without progress in AI. Also, we really need AGI to solve climate change by inventing new technologies. If AI progress stops, millions of people will die due to climate change, including you. So if AI ends, our world is screwed. I think that is a very bad thing.
@@senju2024You absolutely don’t know that. Climate change is a very real threat but it is already solvable without AI. The politics is the problem and AI won’t solve that. What AI could eventually do is end humanity after it gets into the wrong hands or isn’t properly aligned (if alignment is even possible).
@@senju2024 If AI is the only way our "complicated" world can be run, we're in big trouble (well, duh!). Naive people think that when AGI happens everything will be hunky dory, but that's when things really get horrendous. AI is not "progress", and AGI is not guaranteed to help with climate change. Why should AGI care about saving humans? That is the very crux of the so-called alignment problem that very few people are talking about.
Climate change has to reverse by humans changing their habits, otherwise we all die, AI or not. If AGI takes power, we will have no time to address deep fakes, which could lead to one big major world war in which the entirety of humanity will die - including you.
So, if AI gets any more power, our world is truly screwed. I think that is a very, very, very bad thing.
I guess I can see how you see it like that.
but honestly what is needed is a much more fundamental shift. think of people living in small communities with regenerative agriculture, using second hand materials with the smallest ecological footprint possible. a total pushing away of consumer ideology.
we don't need AI to change the way we live as a collective. maybe it might help
ofcourse if this doesn't happen then yes we will need the ingenuity of AI. @@senju2024
Oh my, intriguing
You won't have to worry about AI once the nukes start flying. This is kind of like expressing concern about your coffee getting spilled as you're driving toward the edge of a cliff.
A fab facility is being built in Arizona, partially made possible by the CHIPS act. My wife works for the company building that facility for TSMC. There are other facilities planned right here in the U.S. Sure, it won't solve the problem entirely, but it's a very good start. Further, those suggesting that China will attack Taiwan within the next 5 years are alarmists. Yes, it's possible, but not very likely.
Invading Taiwan for the sole reason of slowing US AI advances wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility.
@@theterminaldave If there'd be no consequences, sure.....
I agree with you 100%. The idea that the CCP will escalate their posturing around Taiwan to invasion in the next 5 years is extremely unlikely.
China is struggling with stagnation at the moment. It hasn't fully recovered from the Zero-Covid Policy, and the flight of manufacturers to India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Co means it will take some time to do so. Add this to its cascading collapse of its real estate industry giants and you can see why it makes zero economical sense to start aggressions any time within the next 10 years even.
The chip shortage that opened the eyes of the world to this problem has led to investments in manufacturing that will mature within the next 5 years. Surely.
Not to mention, we have a treaty that obligates the US to defend Taiwan...
@@oneloveal a treaty to supply weapons, not soldiers ... similar to ukraine
- Understand the geopolitical risks to AI chip production (0:19)
- Recognize the unique role of TSMC in AI development (0:38)
- Be aware of the US government's export ban policy (5:50)
- Consider the implications of new chip fabs being built in the US (6:25)
- Evaluate alternative chip production capabilities globally (10:55)
This video is only 2 weeks old and I see TSMC is the 11th biggest company in the world today by market cap
enlightening
It was said long ago that the next global conflict would be over AI. Not necessarily meaning war, but not excluding such a scenario as well. People seem to have no option when governments have already decided. How do you like yours now?
Without saying it's not good to pay more attention to the delicate situation around Taiwan: any kind of panic about a possible worldwide collapse of TSMC-fueled AI technology is almost completely unfounded.
First of all: *we. Don't. Need. AI.* Not really. Sure AI has grand opportunities, but it's currently complete speculation whether it will do anything to help with the actual pressing problems the world has (climate change, misinformation, war...) or indeed just make them worse.
AI is only "needed" in the sense that economic players who have access to AI will in many areas outcompete players without AI, but a global semiconductor shortage of critical semiconductors would not skew this, it would just mean everyone is moving slower. Which I personally think could only be a good thing, because moving slower would give humanity a better chance to actually get AI right and not end up in some kind of rogue AI nightmare.
But even if you think AI is purely a good thing and you want it as fast as possible: a similar principle applies. TSMC is not doing any magic. Lots of companies can in principle produce AI chips, they just can't do it nearly as well as TSMC. If Nvidia decided to have its GPUs be produced by Intel in 10 nm technology, that would work _just fine_ - only, the chips would run like 50% slower, take perhaps 3 times more energy and be twice as expensive. Of course right now that would make these chips completely uncompetitive on the market, but only because the competition does use TSMC's superior capabilities. If TSMC were wiped off the Earth, _everybody_ would have to switch to the somewhat worse chips, but mainly that would only mean the AI companies would have to spend some more money on hardware and electricity. Nothing _devestating_ about that.
Anxiety over Taiwan could be the stress that prompts A.I. to achieve sentience.
How old are you? 12? Read the book "The Myth of Artificial Intelligence" and grow up.
@brentbb0 This is unnecessarily insulting, and one book can be substantially misleading. Maturity is not shown through insults and misdirection.
We already have the infrastructure and technology in place to handle AI processing. Considering task efficiency will only improve, AI isn't even remotely hardware dependant at this stage. We should be worried about internet distruption and control then hardware shortages at this point.
Infrastructure deteriorates, right? I assume the existing chips will either break due to their lifecycle or other malfunctions, so in order to keep up the current level we already need production capacities. Or do you think the improvement in efficiency will make up for chip deterioration?
I think the hardware that assists AI is actually simplified CPUs optimised to perform large-scale, efficient matrix multiplication. I really don't think it is anything special.
Finally some comments that understands SW engineering. I thank you on behalf of software engineers haha
A halt to what were calling A.I. today would actually be a good thing.
That's coming from a person who can't distinguish between "Were" and "We're"
@@ytb3748 That's coming from a person who can't distinguish between and obvious typo and what's relevant.
Amazing talk-Thank you! The USA needs to support Intel & grow their capabilities, I.e., collaborative partnerships.
A powerful description of the advantages of peaceful diplomacy to maintain the momentum of AI.
Don’t look peacemaker is around to me
Migrating the chips industry from Taiwan is something that will happen, that's out of question, whether China invades or not. The key thing is the technological asymmetry power that it can generate by China or Taiwan under stronf Chinese influence having control over 90% of the production of most advanced chips in the world, while your enemy (the West) must invest 5 or more years to recover that technological capacity somewhere else. That's the deal breaker.
Eliezer Yudkowsky might think that disruption of TSMC is the better timeline....
I'm inclined to agree with that sentiment.
And ASML makes their equipment that no one else has been able to make. This talk should be about ASML mate!
ASML isn't next to China or likely to be invaded by China
exactly....
I remember when EMC was the most important tech company you never heard of.
Thanks Dell!
Rob is the man
I’m not trying to throw shade but, he’s much better & clearer than Peter Zeihan
There is no escaping the harsh reality that even more jobs will be lost due to AI.
Therefore, some countries might have different priorities.
Chilling to think about...
"Let us hope that diplomacy prevails" is wild. You said the geopolitical quiet part out loud with "silicon shield." Eastern Ukraine's rare earths and Israel's fabrication capabilities are weirdly well girded against the event of a Taiwanese ship-burning due to invasion. Apparently American exceptionalism is operating as an international hedge fund. If the US government had invested a quarter of what's gone into these proxy wars into bolstering training for jobs required to get the Phoenix fab off the ground, it might have a chance to push 5% global supply by 25. I've got to tell you, the guys at Happy Valley Happy Hours are telling a bleak tale.
The streaming of this video seems intermittent and choppy -- Network connectivity? -- but I hope the message is coming across for the rest?
I didn't realize people were unaware of this!
People are fixated on "entertainment".
We never think about the geopolitical factors that influence the Tech industry. Maybe be should be paying more attention to what goes on in other parts of the world. 🤔
I don't give a flying flock about the AI aspect, is the more standard tech that matters.
A few years ago, the President worked with Congress to put through the chps act - set up chip manufacturing stateside.
Factory is running, slowly expanding production. Plan is to manufacture a good portion of all high-tech chips used by US companies- and branch into the extreme high end chip manufacturing.
But we are reliant on Taiwan for now. Absolutely. Its not good.
At least some steps are being taken to change that.
His catastrophic prediction actually falls short - between Taiwan and mainland China, they produce practically all chips needed for building a PC. Suspending these factories to western markets will produce a few years of material draught until similar production levels are available elsewhere, and at that time the cost of building a PC skyrockets.
Agreed. Once the expertise leaves Taiwan, which would be the number one goal of US special forces, the guarantee of the world will invest heavily to get production up to speed. Within ten years we would probably be in a better place.
Keep in mind that, even if production levels are up to speed, manufacturing costs in western countries will be higher. We have cheap PCs now only because we enslave people for cheap wages in third world countries, that's the sad reality. We can only hope that robots take over soon.
Interesting. Good to know this. Nanometer chip and the future. Will Samsung be able to do it?
yes, but will take time ( I guess)
Given that we don't actually use AI for anything that important, at the moment, what's the big deal. We can take the time to ramp up GPU production as needed.
That is what I was waiting for the whole speech -the thing that AI does which cannot be done without, I never even caught a notion of any real explanation of what it would be we were missing in the event of this company in Taiwan shutting down its FAB.
To me this Charley's chocolate fab cannot be as hard to live without as the dreadful consequence of the struggle to obtain and control it may be but this AI fever and it's prospectors have a religious cults level of ambition to create their fantasy scifi video game dreams and of coarse intelligent independent machines are going to going to take us boldly where no man has ever gone any day now... I wonder if it is so hard to describe the advantages these chips provide because they offer few it because they are only offered to a few at the expense of many?
That is the feeling this man gave me in his creepy speech.
Good talk. But only if you go with the assumption that we must have AI. Quite some experts -even from the field of AI- are not all that happy with the current speed of development and its direction.
Perhaps we could be well off loosing manufacturing capabilities if that buys us time to rethink how we want to go about developing advanced AI in the first place…
seems like its being developed so we can be lazy and dumb
He did not mention ASML.
I wonder why.
Taiwan and all others are dependent on the factory that makes the machines that make the chips. And they are a decade ahaed.
This is misleading info.
Yea..right. Could you please also tell climate change to stop or slow down as well? If not, then we will need to speed up the progress so AI can help us invent new tech to solve climate change. Otherwise our world is pretty much screwed. Do not expect humans to solve climate change.
@@senju2024 The quite likely way AI will try and save the planet is doing exactly what many fear it will do: remove humanity from the equation.
Also: you manage to completely ignore the very topic of this talk when you drag in climate change.
@@gammaraygem ASML make the tools to make the wafers with. They sort of make the tools a carpenter needs to work with. Unfortunately you cannot give a hammer and chisel to just anyone. You need skilled engineers. You also need the right materials. It’s huge supply chain that is needed before you can use the magnificent ASML technology to make the chips with.
Technology and AI will develop even the best company is buried for various reasons. No company is irreplaceable.
Has anyone noticed in entire talk he never moved even an inch. Super focused on his argument. 👍
Or maybe he's just SO not comfortable presenting to a live audience that he's frozen in place.
I used to do that.
(I got over it simply by repeated exposure.)
That's usually considered bad presentation style. But I guess today all you need to do to get applause is to say "China bad!"
That's usually considered bad presentation style. But I guess today all you need to do to get applause is to say "China bad!"
Some of the higher-end ones are better at speech and memory than at motor tasks.
@@user-hj7ld4ff7p You don't need "motor skills" to have stage presence. People naturally communicate with their face and body as much as their voice. When someone doesn't it's because they are intimidated by standing before a crowd. Like someone who goes on the TED stage who hasn't got anything worthwhile to say...
Failure is NOT an end.
who provide the high end chipmaking machines: the Dutch company ASML.
Or more specifically a technology called "Photolithography"
Back in September, the Chinese company SMIC alongside Huawei managed to manufacture a 7nm chip, which means they now have the machine that generates "Photolithography"
So we could risk WW3 to secure the chips that will build AI, and that AI could destroy humanity if it goes wrong. Lol humans.
The problem is we need to merge with AI to evolve or die in this mass extinction event we are currently in.... by ourselves, we will go extinct. Yet the irony is that we will render control over to AI. Since they will be more superior
We can't have it ALL
read a little history, this is par for the course
The power socket 😂🤣😅
00:06 Most advanced AI chips produced in single facility
01:39 China-Taiwan conflict would paralyze the global AI ecosystem
03:05 Fabless chip makers and foundries play a crucial role in manufacturing chips.
04:30 TSMC's irreplaceable position in the semiconductor industry
06:02 US policy and Taiwan fabs impact China's AI capabilities
07:29 China's dependence on Taiwan for chips
08:51 TSMC's fabs going offline would disrupt global production of cutting-edge AI chips.
10:13 Intel aims to produce two-nanometer chips in 2024
Correction China - US conflict over the peaceful reunification of Taiwan with China would paralyze all chip manufacturing. Anything less than that is Western Propaganda against China.
There are just a few companies in the word that are offering the best generative AI models(openai, google, meta, grok, amazon). There are basically two or three that are hosting them (msft, amazon, goog). There is only one company designing the best chips for that (Nvidia). There is only one company manufacturing them (tsmc). There is only one company capable of delivering the manufacturing machines necessary. (Asml). And there is only one company delivering the optic necessary for these machines (zeiss), And so on and so on... Economies of scale are so present in all the stages at the value creation in this industry.That there is not just one single point of failure but many.
Start building several of these factories in other locations.
Or is this not possible. Please explain this.
It's highly complex and highly expensive, with many choke points . China has been trying to build their own advance chip manufacturing industry.
I hope there’s not a war. Could we find another way to destroy AI chip manufacturing? 😂
Except that we've been setting up our own fabrication facilities, and it won't be long till they're up and running, especially with pressures increasing to build them.
08:07 "... to _retake_ Taiwan" did I hear that right?!
Yes, see: the Chinese civil war
Yes .. PRC has always seen Taiwan as part of "One China" and pushes this position in every international setting.
I’m surprised no country has tried to take out silicon valley or Taiwán. I mean only one country is going to win this race. Does nobody understand what’s coming once agi has been achieved? It seems like it.
Can you please explain what is comming with agi ? Who is going to win race USA?
@@like_the_boss 1. No. 2. Obviously.
"It is in your nature to destroy yourselves." - The Terminator
Well, if AI tech begins to run ahead of its incorporation, it would be convenient to put development on hold for a few years.
It would make sense in light of a threat to make TSMC close up shop.
It would be much cheaper and humane than doing the war thing.
I'm honestly baffled, how Rob completely failed to mention the countless other applications of TSMC produced chips besides AI, that we all rely on every day.
I know, that AI is the hot topic right now and i absolutely believe that developments in the field are going to change the world in a way we can't even imagine yet.
But it's a relatively young technology and we don't yet rely on AI applications as much as many other things such as the SOCs on all of our phones, in every modern car or tons of household appliances or industrial solutions.
As it is, we rely on TSMC for countless other and more important reasons than AI research and applications and we already saw the impacts of missing out on them during the pandemic or the water shortages at their production plants
Maybe this would be the pause we need to try to get more safety measures designed before we unleash this on the world.
Everyone virtually being a customer should reserve Taiwan many market protections... I'm sure they have many connections & partnerships to withstand A storm. We need these global players to work together!
Actually, the ONLY factory that makes those machines is ASML in the Netherlands. Taiwan is completely dependent on those machines. And they are a decade ahead.
This is misinformation designed to alarm us. Complete nonsense.
That is true. Without ASML, TSMC could not produce the chips. But ASML is only part of the system. You could send ASML to other chip manufactures but not sure they could be able produce the AI chips like TSMC.
I am sure Taiwan would want us to believe that...I guess this guy was paid by them. Because AI can vastly improve those chips, also outside Taiwan. @@senju2024
TSMC is still only a foundry just like many others. All it takes is to help other foundries scale up and replace TSMC if they are disrupted by a Chinese occupation of Taiwan 🇹🇼.
Intel has several new fabs coming online for 3 and 2nm processes in the next 2 years - that should both alleviate this failure point and bring money back to the US - a win-win...
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
00:04 🌐 *Overview of TSMC and its significance in AI*
- TSMC is the key manufacturer of advanced AI chips for various tech giants.
- The geopolitical location of TSMC in Taiwan raises concerns about the future of AI.
- TSMC's role is crucial for the entire field of artificial intelligence.
02:11 🧠 *Understanding the semiconductor industry*
- Differentiating between fabless chip makers and foundries.
- Explaining why TSMC is the dominant player in chip manufacturing.
- Discussing the factors that contribute to TSMC's dominance, such as economies of scale and deep partnerships.
05:53 🌍 *Geopolitical factors and the US response*
- The US government's actions to restrict AI chip exports to China.
- TSMC's investment in US-based fabs and its impact on the AI industry.
- The ongoing dependence on Taiwan for advanced chip production and its potential consequences.
08:33 ⚠ *Implications of a potential conflict*
- The vulnerability of TSMC's fabs in the event of a China-Taiwan conflict.
- The impact on global AI chip production and technology advancement.
- Considerations for alternative chip manufacturers like Samsung and Intel.
10:44 🌱 *Hope and potential solutions*
- Acknowledging the existing stock of AI chips in the world.
- The possibility of utilizing other fabs for lagging-edge logic chips.
- The importance of diplomatic efforts to ensure the uninterrupted production of AI chips.
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Dameanvil's one is shorter, more clear and has more likes😅
So Luddites still do not have cause for optimism?!!
So Google with their TPUs are not relying on TSMC?
I am Chinese in my 40s, and ever since I was a kid, I have had anxiety about a China Taiwan war, that never eventuated. My guess is that it won't happen.
Your *hope* is that it won’t happen, but unfortunately the world isn’t static.
China has changed dramatically in the last 40 years, and there is a threshold at which ambition and prowess are too far from the status quo, and the trigger is pulled.
Don’t look any further than Russia - who had much less reason to invade Ukraine than China does Taiwan.
I personally hope that Taiwan can be smart and join China without invoking a war.
Just as Mongolians, they will have to accept that they need to be under the influence of one superpower VS another, and China is the much more natural place for them to be.
The alternative is unimaginable swathes of atrocities to fight what is a natural geographic reality.
It IS I’m afraid only a matter of time. Whether it will be diplomatic or with tremendous human loss is Taiwan’s choice alone to make - if they are indeed “sovereign” as so many on here seem to want to claim.
@@mbradeaIf Taiwan wants to remain independent that is its own choice, there are many islands that are independent states, and it's better to avoid conflict especially when the whole world has problems such as climate change that require co-operation between those with the largest populations and footprints.
@@skylark8828 Unification is a stated CCP objective, so as long as the CCP exists, Taiwan's "choice" for independence is moot.
Start Making Chips Fashionable...eg
Nosering Chips, or Tounge Chips or also ring chips...Can't loose
AI has changed our world in ways we have yet to imagine. We will have the privilege of finding out how we will be benefiting from this cutting edge technology in the coming years as the users start imaginatively pushing them to the edge of their functionality. TSMC and the few other semiconductor manufacturers are the only ones who can produce the hardware that these technologies rely on to deliver us our advanced modern chips. As of now, Taiwan has fortunately made itself almost invaluable by having the monopoly on the bleeding edge of technology. I hope that this prevents any escalation from occurring as it would set us back a decade. There are so many positives to be had but the world’s governments take action based on fears. This is the only world we have and conflict is never the best solution. I hope the evolutionary fear of loss keeps everyone at bay.
That sounds like the US not invading Iraq because they have oil.
This is the same company with a plant being built in Arizona? Seems less like a single point of failure now.
Testing timestamps 5:00
3:00 hello world
Music to the ears of concerned citizens like Dawdat and Musk
It's not true. AI chips actually can be produced not only Taiwan but also Korea and US
Dr. Brown seems intrested, i belive he use chips in DeLorian
Last i heard was that China and Taiwan were talking peacefully for the 1st time in a long time and having talks about them reuniting as one country again.
China's version of peace is borrowed from Theodore Roosevelt; "speak softly and carry a big stick".
there are 5-10X as many tsmc veterans in China than in Arizona
So in other words strategic planning for AI is in the hands of organizations that are short on HI.
If there is demand, there will be supply, don't worry, just let the market work
Companies often relocate
Just another shortfall in US strategic policy among many others (some going on in Europe right now) and I think the US needs to make onshore chip fabrication a top priority as long as the know-how is still around because as with all high end capabilities in production you need keep the skills in the workforce. Workers need specific qualities in terms of attention to quality, precision, cleaness etc. Almost impossible to find the right and enough people for these jobs after having closed the production at home. One should not underestimate this factor! Asian people tend to have “the right qualities” ingrained in their culture and work ethic. I’m not optimistic that a reshoring of high end chips will be possible unless the US government backs it as a strategic priority like it does for the military industry which would probably make more sense in the long run. One could even argue that the West should put its resources behind to avoid a potentially catastrophic outcome down the road.
One more reason to bring manufacturing back home in the US
Saw the stage backdrop and wondered, can I have a 'P' please Bob? 🤔
That must be the first Blockbusters reference I've seen on the internet in 20 years 😂
One chance humanity could be shielded from AI Doom.
Coming to testify here today
It's not only AI that will be impacted... It's the entire world that will be crippled if tsmc would stop producing.
So crazy that any negative comment on israel conflict even in relation to this video is deleted faster than you can post it.
happens everywhere on yt. they have taken it over.
We fall, we learn, we grow, we adapt.
Would A.I. robots ever contact another one because the other had been thinking about it? Would a robot ever pass away of a broken heart?
Hey that's too deep for this type of presentation, please ask that in a AI philosophy video...
My robot died because of a broken memory chip...@@runningwithSaul
A few AIs made up their own language amongst each other, so humans couldn't interfere in their communication
🤐🤔So the lego of the world's future is industry dependant on a Single Company? Wow !! 🤯
Yes, ASML. in Netherlands, This guy is a shill.
People don’t want AI.
Corporations do.
But people demand the products and services corporations produce
Without demand for both innovation and commoditized goods, corporations would not exist - and neither would your state of existence. We would all be animals… or at best peasants dying in pitchfork battles against constantly warring tribes.
Have some respect for the state of the world we have achieved - and which corporations uniquely enable us to sustain.
@@mbradealmao. this is the funniest historical revisionism i've ever seen.
@@mbradea The world was just fine before corporations. They are not saviors of the world. No matter where you look in time, you can point to terrible things and good things. The past was not purely warring tribes, and more than the current day is all social media and nuclear threat. Many civilizations existed with happy, content people, long before today. To believe everyone and everything in the past was terrible is a fallacy. Also, people don't 'demand' much of what's produced today. They are compelled to consume a lot of it as a result of who guessed it? Corporations. Corporations that have an inherent need for continual growth, even when it no longer benefits society.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
00:04 🌐 *Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the key producer of the world's most advanced AI chips, essential for modern artificial intelligence.*
02:11 💰 *TSMC's dominance in chip fabrication is attributed to economies of scale, network effects, and specialization, making it irreplaceable in the global semiconductor industry.*
05:53 🛡️ *Geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and Taiwan, pose a significant risk to the global AI ecosystem due to TSMC's location and role as a key chip manufacturer.*
08:33 ⚠️ *In the event of a conflict where TSMC's fabs are compromised, production of cutting-edge AI chips worldwide would likely cease, impacting the advancement of artificial intelligence.*
10:44 💡 *Despite potential disruptions, existing AI chip stocks and alternative fabs worldwide could mitigate some impacts on AI computing workloads, but losing the ability to produce cutting-edge chips would still be devastating for AI progress.*
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Hey @LinusTechTips what is Luke Doing it here?
There is a saying that if someone in a company is irreplaceable than this person has to be fired.