Your content in multiple videos on playing marginal made hands has had a very positive influence on my game. Thank you for saving me tons of chips in these situations! Really appreciate these videos and the quizzes at pokercoaching.com
So last night I was crushed by a monotone board while playing 1/3 500 max at National harbor Effective stack was 375 - I had both covered but villain 2 had about 800 and villain 1 had about 400. I was sitting around 950-1000. A really solid OMC (likely closer to a TAG) Villain 2 raises to 15 from the UTG+1. Villain 1 (main villain and new to table - and I have zero hours playing with him before) calls from HJ. I look down at 2 black kings and I raise to 75 from the button. Both call. Flop comes Q82 all clubs. The action checks around to me. I decide to down bet and go 50. Previously I would have checked back but I have recently watch a video that said you can’t be afraid of monotone boards and I had the best flushes in my range (I would have and did previously raise like this with both AK and AQs). Also, which a flush is possible, the villain has more AQo, KQ, QJ, and Q 10 or AQ-A10 with a club combos in their range. Both call. Turn pairs the board with a red 8. Action checks around to me and I bet 125. Villain 2 folds. When it gets to villain 2 he raises all in for the last 100 in his stack. I know that I stepped in it but I also know I have outs and I’m priced into the pot. 100 to win 800 and I have outs, even if he has the flush, my kings are live… I call. He flips over A3 of clubs… flopped the nuts. River is a blank and I double him up. How could I have played this hand better?
I think its one of those hands where aggressive opponent talk himself into a bluffing with random hand because we didn't raise very small bet on very wet board on a flop. Actually i like to use that strategy for overbluffing too. :D
What about bluff raising this river using the Tc as a flush blocker? Villain has a ton of value hands that aren't flushes here and raising can get all that stuff to fold. And I doubt the average villain will have the correct defense frequency by herocalling with pair + club hands like KcKx as a GTO solver would.
You usually don't want to turn your showdown value hand into bluffs out of position coz you'll stard over bluffing and but if you call you are more balanced and it looks be better for your bankroll
Hello Jonathan, Happened to me today with pocket Aces. I 4 bet preflop. I kept on value betting with flop 6 T K and Turn K again, which slowed me obviously. The other guy hit set of 3 on the river and smashed me. He had this pocket threes.
on the river when he bets pot, shouldn't we have to be good 50% of the time? jon says we need to be good a third of the time, but you risk 2100 to win 4450 so comes out to 47%
I think because you stand to win twice as much as you are risking, you can afford to lose twice as often as you win. Therefore you only have to be good approx. 33% of the time, losing twice as often (approx. 67%)
Pete carroters put it best (I think): the pot is not a slot machine where your call gets swallowed up and you win a prize. Your call *is a part of the pot you will win* if you win the pot. So if villain bets pot, (say he bets 1000 into 1000 for simplicity), we need to call 1000 to win 3000 since our call will be a part of the pot. (meaning we need to be good 1/3 of the time). We *always* need to be good less than half the time. Even if villain bets a billion times pot our call needs to be good 49.999999975% of the time (1 billion)/(2billion +1)
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Your content in multiple videos on playing marginal made hands has had a very positive influence on my game. Thank you for saving me tons of chips in these situations! Really appreciate these videos and the quizzes at pokercoaching.com
Excellent content again. Ty. You have become my go-to pro poker guy. You are excellent at communicating about poker. Invaluable advice! 😀😁😄😅
Yeah this seems to suggest that villain is just triple barrel bluffing as a default.
Just seem sometimes that the 2% becomes 98% in some sessions...lol. Thx for the advice!
So last night I was crushed by a monotone board while playing 1/3 500 max at National harbor
Effective stack was 375 - I had both covered but villain 2 had about 800 and villain 1 had about 400. I was sitting around 950-1000.
A really solid OMC (likely closer to a TAG) Villain 2 raises to 15 from the UTG+1. Villain 1 (main villain and new to table - and I have zero hours playing with him before) calls from HJ. I look down at 2 black kings and I raise to 75 from the button. Both call.
Flop comes Q82 all clubs. The action checks around to me. I decide to down bet and go 50. Previously I would have checked back but I have recently watch a video that said you can’t be afraid of monotone boards and I had the best flushes in my range (I would have and did previously raise like this with both AK and AQs). Also, which a flush is possible, the villain has more AQo, KQ, QJ, and Q 10 or AQ-A10 with a club combos in their range. Both call.
Turn pairs the board with a red 8. Action checks around to me and I bet 125. Villain 2 folds. When it gets to villain 2 he raises all in for the last 100 in his stack. I know that I stepped in it but I also know I have outs and I’m priced into the pot. 100 to win 800 and I have outs, even if he has the flush, my kings are live… I call. He flips over A3 of clubs… flopped the nuts. River is a blank and I double him up.
How could I have played this hand better?
Easy call off. I like your play.
I think its one of those hands where aggressive opponent talk himself into a bluffing with random hand because we didn't raise very small bet on very wet board on a flop. Actually i like to use that strategy for overbluffing too. :D
What about bluff raising this river using the Tc as a flush blocker? Villain has a ton of value hands that aren't flushes here and raising can get all that stuff to fold. And I doubt the average villain will have the correct defense frequency by herocalling with pair + club hands like KcKx as a GTO solver would.
Yea I think this is a terrible call and raising seems a lot better
You usually don't want to turn your showdown value hand into bluffs out of position coz you'll stard over bluffing and but if you call you are more balanced and it looks be better for your bankroll
9
Hello Jonathan, Happened to me today with pocket Aces. I 4 bet preflop. I kept on value betting with flop 6 T K and Turn K again, which slowed me obviously. The other guy hit set of 3 on the river and smashed me. He had this pocket threes.
Man... This corona is just like having a marginal made hand... Forever.
I would probably bet flop and go all in on the turn which could have gotten me sac. Thanks again for the great advice JL.
Good. Solid advice. ❤️👀👊🏻
on the river when he bets pot, shouldn't we have to be good 50% of the time? jon says we need to be good a third of the time, but you risk 2100 to win 4450 so comes out to 47%
I think because you stand to win twice as much as you are risking, you can afford to lose twice as often as you win. Therefore you only have to be good approx. 33% of the time, losing twice as often (approx. 67%)
Pete carroters put it best (I think): the pot is not a slot machine where your call gets swallowed up and you win a prize. Your call *is a part of the pot you will win* if you win the pot.
So if villain bets pot, (say he bets 1000 into 1000 for simplicity), we need to call 1000 to win 3000 since our call will be a part of the pot. (meaning we need to be good 1/3 of the time). We *always* need to be good less than half the time. Even if villain bets a billion times pot our call needs to be good 49.999999975% of the time (1 billion)/(2billion +1)
@@MK-13337 , using your approach makes the math a lot easier 😊
@@MK-13337 thank you that makes it clear