Dangerous Times For Housing

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.ย. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 89

  • @MrLiguinii
    @MrLiguinii 3 ปีที่แล้ว +41

    "Millennial killed our cities!", yelled an old man from his Laurentides cottage.

  • @AboutHere
    @AboutHere 3 ปีที่แล้ว +26

    Wow I think this is one of the most thoughtful and in-depth analysis I've heard on cities post-pandemic. Thanks Paige, can you explain what happens to us when we die next?

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      In Montreal we hold onto our Mont Royal crosses

  • @Pyjamas22
    @Pyjamas22 3 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    The point you end on is definitively what I think will happen. Alot of people want to live in cities because they are cultural centers, but cant afford it, and alot of people want to live rural for the space but need to go to work in a city. I dont think much will change with cities and downtowns, we are just in a shock moment due to covid, people and businesses will adjust and adapt.

  • @shday1
    @shday1 3 ปีที่แล้ว +30

    Interesting anecdote: My friend has a major client that will be closing their office on the West Island (well outside downtown Montreal) because of covid and the fact that almost everyone can work remotely (they didn't have any layoffs). Instead, they will open a smaller office *downtown* mainly for meetings. :-)

  • @Alex_Plante
    @Alex_Plante 3 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    I've been working from home since March. To be honest, it's not as efficient as working in the office, but on the other hand I save 1.5 hours a day commuting. I think that once the pandemic is brought under control, people will work part of the time at home and part at the office, and it will be up to each work group to figure out what the most efficient mix will be.

    • @mikieca
      @mikieca 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      I find i work more now.... Extra in the morning.. Always later at night.. "one more email"

  • @shday1
    @shday1 3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    My wife and I have both worked remotely for about 10yrs. I used to have a 90 min commute to the Old Port, which wasn't horrible, but given the choice...
    Anyway, I hope your second senario is what happens. We love city living and hope to move from the suburbs one day. I do believe you are correct about a sustained increase in remote work post-pandemic.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Wow. That commute puts you will into the 10th percentile, pretty crazy. Research shows for most people that has a pretty substantial impact on their mental health. Why didn't you move?

    • @shday1
      @shday1 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@PaigeMTL I was actually considering it but the timing wasn't good, with kids in school on the West Island. The worst part of the commute was actually driving back and forth to the Roxboro train station (and parking!).

  • @mr51406
    @mr51406 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Just call me Professr FLANK... 😅
    The 2nd laziest ending is “Life goes on.”
    Very interesting concepts. We may yet see a big shift in how to conceive urban planning. I’m totally for conversions of downtown office space. There would be i think a growing demand for rental and co-op rental, instead of condo. But those kinds of conversions take courage and commitment.
    Watch that a lot of people will be moving to exurbia, especially anywhere that’s not zoned “green,” like the Laurentians (article in La Presse this week about that). Unfortunately people still have to get around and I fear that unless we do move to electric cars, it will be a lot worse for pollution. Of course I can always dream of regional rail lines to Ste-Agathe or Sherbrooke but... They’ll prefer to widen the A15 to 8 lanes, it’s more politically productive.

  • @amna2940
    @amna2940 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    You mentioned internet, electricity, transport and education, but there are other important public services dependent on proximity that urban dwellers often take for granted, including health care, police/fire, mail delivery, distribution of fresh food and so forth. Living further out requires taking on more personal responsibility for getting those needs met rather than relying on public services, but while you might be able to raise chickens and grow carrots on your plot of land, good luck McGyvering your own emergency bypass surgery. It could take years or even decades for public infrastructure to catch up to the needs of a newly-dispersed population base. It's conceivable that some will ultimately decide to come back to the city or perhaps even split their time or otherwise maintain a foothold in urban areas for this reason.
    Thanks for the great video btw. Following! 👍

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Yeah, it's not like this universally applies, but if just 5% of the white collar workers left the economic effects would be massive and forever change the city. It's the multipliers. The house being constructed, the teacher being hired, the restaurant being patroned all move elsewhere. Then in turn those builders, teachers and restaurant owners go with them and their... You get what I'm saying.

    • @amna2940
      @amna2940 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@PaigeMTL For sure. And I think the net result will be diminished quality of life for all involved. Those leaving are chasing cheaper open space, but this will be gained at the expense of other amenities they will ultimately miss. By the time they realize what they've given up, the urban areas they left behind may be mired in blight. As someone who's committed to sticking it out in the city, I sincerely hope it doesn't come to this.

  • @canadaehxplained77
    @canadaehxplained77 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    That hotel... oh god.. that hotel.. I have a story from that hotel...

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Yeah my neighborhood is pretty... Dynamic?

    • @canadaehxplained77
      @canadaehxplained77 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@PaigeMTL I stayed there with an ex, because it was the cheapest place during a summer festival - but they gave our room key to a random elderly woman by accident - who walked in at an inopportune time

  • @fabianSito123
    @fabianSito123 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    increase volume 50%, your welcome

  • @cream0fwheat
    @cream0fwheat 3 ปีที่แล้ว +20

    With the right leadership and vision this could end up doing wonders for the city. I'm almost certain that the people who want to live in cities are the people who like to be within walking distance to shops/restaurants/bars/etc. I guess I just hope that this will result in the city becoming even more pedestrian friendly, especially downtown if a lot of the office space can be transformed into residential space. And if rents decrease it will hopefully result in people spending more on local commerce.
    But I'm probably being a little too optimistic.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      I know city council members and planners watch these videos, I'm hoping they work to make conversions as easy as possible for developers and building owners. Even being proactive and approaching owners with proposals.
      Regardless, the transition is likely to be painful and they'll get tons of flak for any decisions. It's crazy how often certain businesses blame their failures in 2020 on bike lanes instead of the once in a lifetime halting of the global economy or their decision to start a high risk business like a restaurant or bar. I'm sure if property prices drop people won't be saying "You know, I should have made sure this property cash flowed, I paid for my speculating"

    • @farfetchedcat
      @farfetchedcat 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@PaigeMTL i feel with rapid advancement in automation there needs to be a serious look at converting some of these office building into affordable and sustainable housing the rapid inflation and constant rise in housing will wages stagnate and jobs disappear is going to hurt a lot.I know you seem to be more of a libertarian leaning sort of person and might not support this idea but i dont see much of a way around it at the moment.

    • @pebblepod30
      @pebblepod30 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@PaigeMTL 1:59 What movie is this? It looks familiar.

  • @alexa7893
    @alexa7893 3 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    I live in a part of a city that suffered urban decay. It's gentrifying now not due to employment opportunities and easy commutes to downtown but due to attraction to urban lifestyles, walkability and a sense of community not necessarily offered by the suburbs and small towns. Some ppl have been working from their apartments since before the pandemic. I think the most important thing is for urban rent prices to drop eg NYC and San Fran or remain affordable if you are in an affordable city (Montreal) and (Houston) so that taxes are not lost to depopulation. Remember that regardless, Millennials inherently like to cluster and don't necessarily want to leave cities. They are just priced out.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      I find Houston interesting because they managed affordability with massive economic growth, it's kind of like a thought experiment. A friend of mine lives there which is why my b-roll had Houston in it a lot. Still churning through the footage from my last trip there. I've thought about doing a Montreal vs Houston video because they're my favorite cities yet so different.

    • @kb_100
      @kb_100 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@PaigeMTL this would be an interesting topic and an interesting case study. Houston, Dallas and most other "Republican" cities in the US tend to have more lax zoning laws and an easier approvals process for new building. So they can quickly add supply to the housing stock. While cities like San Francisco or LA have much more regulations and ways for local interest groups to block new developments. So they end up with much less supply. I wonder where Montréal falls on this spectrum. I suspect it is more of a San Francisco situation but without the huge economic growth.

  • @CapitaineMontreal
    @CapitaineMontreal 3 ปีที่แล้ว +12

    I was confronted... on reddit... because, i had the audacity of saying that I hate Remote-Work. I was really surprised by the number of people fo whom the Transit from home the office is (was) a major pain. Such a pain that it shadows every other aspect of working in a office. For me, the office is MY source of social contacts... of course Im living alone..

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      Yeah, I don't like working from home at all. I didn't get into it too much, but I think people will remember offices in a few years like we remember the earlier days of passenger flight. Although the economics makes sense people will say "What? All employers supplied staff with a dedicated workspace in a building with coffee machines, meeting rooms and equipment?" and the fact you could 9-5 it and then both physically and mentally leave work. We're totally signing a deal with the devil.

    • @RR123
      @RR123 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      In March I really hated it, now I really don't know why I'd want to be stuck on a schedule in an uncomfortable office with the same 10 people everyday...
      I think we'll need to reinvent the social balance of it and Friday zoom happy hour won't cut it in the long run...

    • @CapitaineMontreal
      @CapitaineMontreal 3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      @@RR123 hum... i guess so. Of course I was very priviligied to work at Cirque du Soleil, with a social commitee, happy hours every 2 weeks, birthday celebration, 2 huge parties per year.. etc etc...

    • @RR123
      @RR123 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@CapitaineMontreal @CapitaineMontreal you're right, it's very contextual, but though I'd love for everyone to switch to "check in whenever you want", I don't think it's going to be economically viable.
      And parties are better when they are in a rented place, while social committee often turn into peer pressure to socialize at work.
      But again, very context specific... :)
      I don't know what will happen, but I just hope we diversify a lot the possibilities between places so people have more choices that fit what they prefer!

    • @CapitaineMontreal
      @CapitaineMontreal 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@RR123Yes, context specific... you are right. But I still think that people who are living alone are the leftovers in that crisis and what will ensue

  • @TD-gc5tq
    @TD-gc5tq 3 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    It’s a first experience with remote work for a lot of people, but it’s happening at the same time of a highly stressful situation, and I’m not sure *The bad thing*™️ is the best time to think about moving from urban living to suburban/country living, when cities are on pause. Remote as been part of my life for years, but I never thought to myself “Hey! Now that I have more flexibility, I should move out to the boonies!”. It’s weird to see some folks bid aggressively for that huge house, close to nature, when they’ve never really been outdoorsy and this increased suburban development might wreck said nature.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      I think most people are taking a wait and see approach, someone I know works for a very large tech company that has to explicitly tell staff "Don't buy houses" after someone moved out of state.

    • @TD-gc5tq
      @TD-gc5tq 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@PaigeMTL I think so too, the thought of moving in the country might be impulsive, but the actual research and buying process is more involved. People might think, “I’m not Ted Kaczynski. I don’t hate having neighbours close by. Do I really need to own 5 acres of wilderness?” and take the time to evaluate what are they really looking for.

  • @SomeDudeQC
    @SomeDudeQC ปีที่แล้ว +2

    The Simpsons "I want my Elephant" but it's affordable housing in 2023

  • @SPAMMAN123456789
    @SPAMMAN123456789 3 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    I think the mix will happen. Another reason cities happen is to promote 'innovation'. And I dont mean it exclusively in the sense of new tech. I also mean it in terms of culture. Public discourse. New ideas and having them grow or not. Community also kinda happens by proxy in a city. And as attractive as nature is. As some one who grew up on a farm. It kinda gets boring and lonely. Some people will love that. The regularity and peace. My dad would be one. Which is why he chose to move to one. But 15 years of growing up on one showed me that it's not for me.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      I agree, I think living on a farm sounds nice but many people haven't actually tried yet to realize the downsides. Surveys show some pretty high numbers intend to but who actually will especially when the city come back to life next year?

  • @atubebuff
    @atubebuff 3 ปีที่แล้ว +10

    A lot of good analysis in this video. Excellent video and great editing!

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Trying my best

  • @hotboyphil
    @hotboyphil 3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    for white collar jobs i think the whole, lives in Canada will stay a requirements and luckily for Quebec workers "speaks French" will also keep competition at bay. personally if post covid companies want to keep work from home, i would be so happy. i would want to move out of Montreal and to the Maritimes to live a less hectic life style might be able to afford a car even a boat. still a dream for now.

  • @pielandre8275
    @pielandre8275 3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I know people who worked at Rogers Blair office in Ottawa. The decision to not renew the lease was taken before the pandemic.
    Still it makes more sense now to not renew it.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      That's interesting, definitely not how the company is presented in the press. I guess they may have decided not to renew, then when the pandemic started and the survey results came in also decided not to lease elsewhere. Or just noticed they had an opportunity to get some free publicity.
      This pandemic is generally a catalyst for things that were already happening (eg online shopping). It's just compressing timelines so fast that we're getting slack where we weren't expecting it (Like office space)

  • @callumsymons7991
    @callumsymons7991 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Hindsight is 2022 those record low oil prices sure turned around

  • @kb_100
    @kb_100 3 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    I think the preference for city life can also depend on someone's relationship status. Unattached people would probably prefer to be in a city with more opportunities to socialize and meet new people. But as they pair up and get into longer term relationships the value proposition of city life starts to weaken.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Kids are the classic one

    • @RR123
      @RR123 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Don't people still want to socialize as a couple and have kids who can see friends outside of a very distant school?

    • @kb_100
      @kb_100 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@RR123 of course but it depends on the couple. Sadly I've observed most of the people I know have gotten less social after getting married and especially after kids. Their family life becomes more regimented and spontaneity becomes less desired.
      So if you're living in a suburb you can still plan a dinner with friends a week or two in advance and make the trip. For many the added space the suburban lifestyle offers outweighs the city life where you can meet a friend for a beer/coffee around the corner whenever the mood strikes.

    • @RR123
      @RR123 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@kb_100 i wonder, economically and time wise, how does suburb life compares to having a good minimal setup in the city, not requiring daily case use, and having a remote chalet 1-2h away with a place to recharge on weekends...

    • @paddyodoor3090
      @paddyodoor3090 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@RR123 alot of people think it's a great idea to move to the suburbs then when they move their they become isolated and only really have there partner as company outside of work hours

  • @keithtonkin6959
    @keithtonkin6959 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    People thought this would happen when PCs first appeared but this time because of pandemic experience and fear of climate change consequences you are probably right. Time will tell! PS where in Montreal is that New Zealand and Australian restaurant? I missed it when there.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Ta Pies on Parc, it's the unofficial embassy

  • @cyborgsheep6077
    @cyborgsheep6077 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    13:28 mind blow! That is awesome if that`s the reality that is going to happen

  • @pebblepod30
    @pebblepod30 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I believe that Germany has a great solution for this: each company must apply to get a permit to move their work outside, and their product gets an extra tax when it is sold in Germany. Awesome!

  • @reecemartin4354
    @reecemartin4354 3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Great video, a lot of very important and interesting questions raised!
    I do think all of this goes in both ways too though, there are lots of benefits that you alluded to for cities as well, at least the ones that are pleasant to be in! If you can work from anywhere a great city might be where you want to work from!

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      I think it's interesting that despite all this change most thinking around urbanism is still valid, for the people opting for the city they're going to want the bike lanes, traffic calming and transit. I do think the large spend infrastructure stuff, especially things on traditional "commuter" routes needs to be modeled for a different era before building.

  • @pixlematrix5806
    @pixlematrix5806 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Good stuff. In my case, the company I'm working for is allowing workers to decide if they want to work remotely or not. To be fair this option was already given before Covid happened, it was just turboed with greatest speeds to make it that there's no lag doing so. We do have a few people who prefer working in the building physically, and with most people not, it's much safer for them. Some have moved to Ontario. So I think a mix of both is what will happen for a lot of companies.
    Personally, we're thinking of moving to the Saguenay region due to the house prices and the fact their internet there is great (fun fact: Saguenay was used as a pilot project for cable internet / Videotron system way back in 1996 (it was known as UBI). If you look on youtube, there's a video if you search for 'sageunay UBI', just ignore the ubisoft stuff tho .)
    I'd miss Montreal, Laval and Longueuil, but having a house with a gigantic yard and fast internet for half or even a third of the price in Montreal or the suburbs is very hard to resist.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      It's smart that they made that investment, or seems like a great choice for a family wanting to be debt free quickly. The question is, how many people will follow through?

  • @m.p.baldnessdyslexic88
    @m.p.baldnessdyslexic88 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Thanks again

  • @RG-kg5oy
    @RG-kg5oy 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Great vid, as always! Does month to month mean like oct -> nov or oct 2019 -> oct 2020? Always confused by these terms. Prices have been slowing down for the winter it seems for 2020.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      I've got a weird brain so I get mixed up with that stuff too. "On" is basically the big one. If a property market was going up 10% month on month that would be insane. Whereas what we're seeing is a continuous 10% Year on Year increase, each month (month to month)

  • @henrynelson11
    @henrynelson11 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Love your videos, keep them coming!

  • @AriasValor3
    @AriasValor3 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Do you know of other channels similar to yours about other cities that you can recommend? This channel is so good.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      That's such a nice thing to say. I'm actually trying to make my content about North American cities but shamelessly from Montreal.
      About Here is a channel about Vancouver that is the closest thing I've come across. There's another channel called City Beautiful that is great for North American urbanism. Neither channel has anything near my DJPM (Dick joke per minute) rate but they're quality products.

  • @itschrisuphere
    @itschrisuphere 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Equilibrium will be met

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Haha, the economists version of "Time will tell"

  • @1q3er5
    @1q3er5 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    hey you are really smart - what did you go to school/work for? You deserve a million subs!

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      CompSci but my career has been all over the show.
      You know about once a year while looking at a lightbulb I start wondering how electricity "really works", then I look it up and immediately forget.
      People usually make videos about topics they are deeply interested in and have researched for years. This makes creators look smarter than they are.
      You're not seeing the video where I try to describe how "electrons... can be magnets?" and look like a moron.
      I wanted this comment to be insightful, but I think I've just ended up defending Insane Clown Possey.

    • @RainMan52
      @RainMan52 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@PaigeMTL lol, awesome reply

  • @jacklong1844
    @jacklong1844 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Is it me or is your accent starting to sound Canadian?

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      I actually cut an "Accent integrity failure" joke from this, don't know why it's happening after a decade all of a sudden

  • @BTin416
    @BTin416 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    You went really deep here.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      If you could only see what gets cut, a 10 minute talk about reverse mortgages and life expectancy

  • @GeorgeGraves
    @GeorgeGraves 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    The parts for the first ipod hadn't "been sitting around for years" and Jobs just put it all together. It was only possible because of the miniature hard drive that sanyo(?) made.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      I didn't say a good iPod, obviously with each year that passes an mp3 player gets more storage, battery life etc.

    • @GeorgeGraves
      @GeorgeGraves 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@PaigeMTL not the point

    • @TD-gc5tq
      @TD-gc5tq 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      This is #MontRoyalVolcanoGate all over again 🤣

  • @djdocstrange
    @djdocstrange 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    With all the bike lanes being put up in the city, there’s even less incentive to drive downtown. I think Plante is screwing things up and driving people away from downtown.

    • @PaigeMTL
      @PaigeMTL  3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      The bike lanes and pedestrianisation generally correlate to desirability of neighborhood, the reason suburbanites don't drive downtown is because large car-centric retail and restaurant developments have been built for them. Saint Catherine has always been congested and hard to park on, why would anyone drive in to go to Hudson's Bay now that there are super malls at four corners of the city?
      It's foolish for downtown to try and get drivers to park and shop, it'll never out complete the directly off-highway acres of free parking elsewhere. It's advantage is being walkable, connected to the metro and having consumers living and working nearby. Bikelanes and walkability increase the desirability and that consumer base.

    • @djdocstrange
      @djdocstrange 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@PaigeMTL that is true however I find that the metro system needs much more accessibility. There needs to be more lines and stops to deter people from driving. IMO downtown should only have delivery trucks or public transportation. But from what I see there’s bike lanes everywhere and few bikers. The bike paths and pedestrian areas around the super hospital and turcot yards bother me. I very rarely see anyone walk or bike there. Not to mention the sidewalks in some areas are wider than the car lanes themselves.
      Our public transportation system still needs much more improvement.

    • @eriklakeland3857
      @eriklakeland3857 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@djdocstrange "Our public transportation still needs much more improvement" on top of the REM? That's already a massive step, since it'll be similar to the Vancouver SkyTrain and is nearly as long as the Metro. It'll synergize with the Metro as well. Cities around the continent would be jealous of that project, but I love the appetite for more transit :)

    • @djdocstrange
      @djdocstrange 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@eriklakeland3857 yeah, I believe we are abke to work on several projects at once. The turcott exchange project is nearly completed so those resources should be used to help out elsewhere. I find the government waits too long in between projects and thats why we have these transportation holes that need to be plugged. My dream would be to no longer have the pot hole issues as bad as they are now but i think thats a pipe dream. Its job security if there’s always something to fix...