Fantastic content as always. Thanks, Brandt! Let's see if markets still respond to real economic data especially if earnings are revised lower even if companies beat.
Most of everything I talked about is already happening. Manufacturing PMI's this week ae lower, Prices paid are higher. The Fed greenlighted China's easing. Copper is soaring. Yields are higher , all = lower growth, higher inflation in Q4, potentially tying the Fed's hand on the next rate cut, while unemployment trends higher in a growth slowdown. Basically, the Fed took a risk w/ a 50 bp cut, trying to get ahead of the rising unemployment rate, but has sparked inflation.
@bssb936 We're watching a few things. This cycle is different than most because of the inflation or fear of inflation resurging. The market almost always gives a warning. We already got a big picture warning or strategic warning, now we're watching for the tactical warning.
What gets me is WTI is now back to 2003 price but nominally much less today due to dollar inflation yet all of the spikes in the oil price fed into inflation but rarely do we see deflation based upon lower energy input price. Flexes up prices on the way up sticky or actually glued on the way down. Everyone holding on to their inflation price hike windfall.
@pwningusince1994 they have a tendency to try. I think they either did try or are trying now. Investors rotate out of tech/ mega caps ( this started modestly in Q3) and try to rotate into small caps. The failure of that rotation is often a late bull market cycle warning.
The immediate effect of the cut is less interest for those with deposits. Those people will immediately cut back spending enough to kick the slowing economy into recession.. The economic benefits of cheaper lending takes much longer to kick in.
@@thetechnicaltake i have 52 transactions over my career most from 2009-2012 we have another massive bubble i think FL has hit peak RE prices in our lifetime
@@danman1287 I haven't kept close tabs on S. FL real estate. It's an insane market though. I recall looking at houses on waterfront intercoastal access in 1998-1999 for, in some cases, $150k. I went on a 2 week vacation and none of them that I looked at (had 5 contracts over that period that we backed out of over inspections - regret that now) had sold, but all jumped and it never turned around. There's a high correlation with 4 decades of the Fed Funds rate trending lower. You can always count on the Fed to blow massive bubbles and exacerbate the wealth divide, while saying they are doing what's best for the American people! Ha! They're doing their best for BlackRock and others.
History supports a recession based on every chart shown. But, timing it is another thing. This recession has been delayed by gov spending and AI. When rate cuts are at market highs and historically low unemployment it is actually bullish for next 6-12 month.
@sunrizen yep, the govt. printing almost a trillion every 100 days blunted rate hikes and made the Fed's long and variable lag on policy effects, even longer
Appreciate it Brandt
Fantastic content as always. Thanks, Brandt! Let's see if markets still respond to real economic data especially if earnings are revised lower even if companies beat.
Most of everything I talked about is already happening. Manufacturing PMI's this week ae lower, Prices paid are higher. The Fed greenlighted China's easing. Copper is soaring. Yields are higher , all = lower growth, higher inflation in Q4, potentially tying the Fed's hand on the next rate cut, while unemployment trends higher in a growth slowdown. Basically, the Fed took a risk w/ a 50 bp cut, trying to get ahead of the rising unemployment rate, but has sparked inflation.
Panic....
An understatement. 😉👍
I guess we'll find out here soon-ish. 👀
Thank you for explanation. Great work as always
Good work...I've got some interesting TA as well that may help us narrow down the upcoming action....:)
Ty Brandt great info in the vid!
Great TA analysis, unfortunately you don't post often your videos that leaves us on dark. Thank you anyhow.
Excellent thanks Would you have any guess to timing of a drop in market should it occur? Thanks 😊
@bssb936 We're watching a few things. This cycle is different than most because of the inflation or fear of inflation resurging. The market almost always gives a warning. We already got a big picture warning or strategic warning, now we're watching for the tactical warning.
@bssb936 the election makes this a little tricky, too. The market will act and react In different places depending on who wins.
What gets me is WTI is now back to 2003 price but nominally much less today due to dollar inflation yet all of the spikes in the oil price fed into inflation but rarely do we see deflation based upon lower energy input price. Flexes up prices on the way up sticky or actually glued on the way down. Everyone holding on to their inflation price hike windfall.
Do you believe small caps should melt up to end the bull market ?
@pwningusince1994 they have a tendency to try. I think they either did try or are trying now. Investors rotate out of tech/ mega caps ( this started modestly in Q3) and try to rotate into small caps. The failure of that rotation is often a late bull market cycle warning.
The immediate effect of the cut is less interest for those with deposits. Those people will immediately cut back spending enough to kick the slowing economy into recession.. The economic benefits of cheaper lending takes much longer to kick in.
@ralphsimpson4593 that's true. APRs on CCs aren't coming down with rate cuts
Job numbers r not the only ones faked. Same with RE prices. They still have SE FL going up
@@danman1287 are you in RE? I live in the same area.
@@thetechnicaltake i have 52 transactions over my career most from 2009-2012 we have another massive bubble i think FL has hit peak RE prices in our lifetime
@@danman1287 I haven't kept close tabs on S. FL real estate. It's an insane market though. I recall looking at houses on waterfront intercoastal access in 1998-1999 for, in some cases, $150k. I went on a 2 week vacation and none of them that I looked at (had 5 contracts over that period that we backed out of over inspections - regret that now) had sold, but all jumped and it never turned around. There's a high correlation with 4 decades of the Fed Funds rate trending lower. You can always count on the Fed to blow massive bubbles and exacerbate the wealth divide, while saying they are doing what's best for the American people! Ha! They're doing their best for BlackRock and others.
@@thetechnicaltake that vlogger nick gerli says Blackstone is selling out of Tampa st Pete... Found 4 examples. One was 80k loss
History supports a recession based on every chart shown. But, timing it is another thing. This recession has been delayed by gov spending and AI. When rate cuts are at market highs and historically low unemployment it is actually bullish for next 6-12 month.
@sunrizen yep, the govt. printing almost a trillion every 100 days blunted rate hikes and made the Fed's long and variable lag on policy effects, even longer