I was thinking of inflicting this on my smart 15-year old, but I'm pretty sure that explanation will make his eyes glaze over 🤣 *I* found it good info tho! 🩵
14:50 description of margin of error. So far off, the so-called margin of error is the statistical chance of error based on the sample size. It does not include structural errors, such as whether the contact method or time of day favors a particular side. It also doesn't include shifts such as how likely a particular side is to turn out. Basically it's only the minimum amount of error, and any issues with the sample will increase it tremendously
30:00 aw Nathaniel, I wish I could be this optimistic. I think the internet enables false realities so pretty sure this polarization is never going away. Not a coincidence we got this polarized with the rise of smartphones and social media
Lynchings, voter disenfranchisement, violent strike breaking, mass protests and even political violence in American society ALL existed before smart phones. Do you really think any of this is new? That's a false comforting fiction. There was no golden "before time". They were killing Civil Rights activists and fire bombing churches in the 1960's. That wasn't polarization? I don't disagree that the reach of misinformation and biased, bigoted views is far wider today thanks to the Internet, but I'm sorry, there was never some "end of history" that we grew up in where American politics didn't have deep rancor festering throughout.
Here's my honest question about polling. Polls don't reach out for larger sample sizes because its expensive. But Pollsters are polling 24/7, releasing polls on an often weekly basis. Maybe twice a week if there's a big event like the party convention. Wouldn't a more accurate model be releasing a monthly poll with 4 times the sample size?
I remember in past election, the 538 model allowed for "calling" a state so that we could then see the conditional probability of a candidate winning given the results of some states. are there plans to do that again this year?
Are margins of error normally distributed or uniformly distributed? The way it’s talked about in this episode makes it sound like it’s uniform but I've always been under the impression it should be thought of as normally distributed.
I raised 75k and Christina Ann Tucker is to be thanked. I got my self my dream car 🚗 just last weekend, My journey with her started after my best friend came back from New York and saw me suffering in dept then told me about her and how to change my life through her. Christina A. Tucker is the kind of person one needs in his or her life! I got a home, a good wife, and a beautiful daughter. Note!:: this is not a promotion but me trying to make a point that no matter what happens, always have faith and keep living!!
< I know that woman(Christina Ann Tucker) If you were born and raised in new York you'd know too, No doubt she is the one that helped you get where you are!!
What kind of dinosaur do you have to be to answer the phone when someone calls? Also, I get texts all the time asking me to take a poll, but I assume they're really just some hostile org trying to collect marketing (or worse) information about me. How would I even try to participate in real polls if I wanted to do so without putting myself at risk?
All this talk about this election is so annoying and repetitive, no matter what happens no one knows what's happening. Its been a tossup forever even back in 2020. I think we should collectively ignore polling until 1 candidate surpasses an 80% chance of winning then it may be relevant
Why on earth are you here if you find talk about the election annoying? That's like going to a sports bar and complaining about all these people talking about football all the time.
This was so helpful! This morning a pundit was celebrating the new Bloomberg poll and i paused and said "OK, but what is the poll quality? I wonder how 538 rates it!" I'd like to get excited but I won't be 2016ed again if I can help it! 🩵
I feel like Nathaniel doesn’t know what an 8 year old is
Thankfully, I don't think many 8 year olds are listening in on this.
Ah I remember using the words "demographics" as an 8 yr old
I was thinking of inflicting this on my smart 15-year old, but I'm pretty sure that explanation will make his eyes glaze over 🤣 *I* found it good info tho! 🩵
Always enjoy the analysis.
14:50 description of margin of error. So far off, the so-called margin of error is the statistical chance of error based on the sample size. It does not include structural errors, such as whether the contact method or time of day favors a particular side. It also doesn't include shifts such as how likely a particular side is to turn out. Basically it's only the minimum amount of error, and any issues with the sample will increase it tremendously
would be better with video
Does anybody know how GAY Galen is? I really wanna know!!!
@@AllenTaylor-q9e ask your dad
@@CB38096 why would my dad know how gay Galen is?
@@AllenTaylor-q9e like on a scale of 1 to 10?
@@PhiltheMoko yes I really wanna know how gay he is
Good work over the past 4 years team
What happened to the video? The show is so much better when we can see the expressions of each speaker.
30:00 aw Nathaniel, I wish I could be this optimistic. I think the internet enables false realities so pretty sure this polarization is never going away. Not a coincidence we got this polarized with the rise of smartphones and social media
Lynchings, voter disenfranchisement, violent strike breaking, mass protests and even political violence in American society ALL existed before smart phones. Do you really think any of this is new? That's a false comforting fiction. There was no golden "before time".
They were killing Civil Rights activists and fire bombing churches in the 1960's. That wasn't polarization?
I don't disagree that the reach of misinformation and biased, bigoted views is far wider today thanks to the Internet, but I'm sorry, there was never some "end of history" that we grew up in where American politics didn't have deep rancor festering throughout.
Here's my honest question about polling. Polls don't reach out for larger sample sizes because its expensive. But Pollsters are polling 24/7, releasing polls on an often weekly basis. Maybe twice a week if there's a big event like the party convention. Wouldn't a more accurate model be releasing a monthly poll with 4 times the sample size?
Of course but that would lead to a collapse of the cable news industry.
Please also report the statistical power of the test.
It's safe to assume almost all are using a 95% Confidence Interval.
Someday maybe ABC will enter the 1990s and allow a video feed for this pod.
I remember in past election, the 538 model allowed for "calling" a state so that we could then see the conditional probability of a candidate winning given the results of some states. are there plans to do that again this year?
I think they were allowing that earlier this year, but they changed it a couple of weeks ago.
check the article with the title "Explore The Ways Trump Or Harris Could Win The 2024 Election"
@@micahmcfarlane5303 yup, that hit the spot, thank you
@@micahmcfarlane5303 yup, this is what I was looking for
”Sometimes outliers are correct” - this is the definition of statistics. An outlier is just that - it will happen over time.
And if the polls are consistent for a week or two, can you aggregate them and does that reduce the margin of error?
The assumption would have to be that all polls sample appropriately and identically, which is not the case.
Are margins of error normally distributed or uniformly distributed? The way it’s talked about in this episode makes it sound like it’s uniform but I've always been under the impression it should be thought of as normally distributed.
I love this topic, but don't need to be hearing the bell sound every 30 seconds
Oofta. The "explain it like you would explain it to a child" portion kind of lost the plot of the bit 😂
I'm 27yrs old. $73,000 biweekly and I'm retired, this video have inspired me greatly in many ways!!!!❤️
I'm highly inspired.
Please spill some sugar about the bi-weekly stuff you mentioned.
I raised 75k and Christina Ann Tucker is to be thanked. I got my self my dream car 🚗 just last weekend, My journey with her started after my best friend came back from New York and saw me suffering in dept then told me about her and how to change my life through her. Christina A. Tucker is the kind of person one needs in his or her life! I got a home, a good wife, and a beautiful daughter. Note!:: this is not a promotion but me trying to make a point that no matter what happens, always have faith and keep living!!
Wow 😱 I know her too
Miss Christina Ann Tucker is a remarkable individual whom has brought immense positivity and inspiration into my life.
I started with a miserly $1500. The results have been mind blowing I must say TBH!
< I know that woman(Christina Ann Tucker)
If you were born and raised in new York you'd know too, No doubt she is the one that helped you get where you are!!
Why is there no video? Set up a damn google meets call
How to read the polls? Don't. Just listen to Allan Lichtman's election prediction.
What kind of dinosaur do you have to be to answer the phone when someone calls?
Also, I get texts all the time asking me to take a poll, but I assume they're really just some hostile org trying to collect marketing (or worse) information about me. How would I even try to participate in real polls if I wanted to do so without putting myself at risk?
Why dive into this? Bc there are only so many ways to say "it's still 50/50"
NYT has NOT been accurate in any way in the past. Lol
All this talk about this election is so annoying and repetitive, no matter what happens no one knows what's happening.
Its been a tossup forever even back in 2020.
I think we should collectively ignore polling until 1 candidate surpasses an 80% chance of winning then it may be relevant
Why on earth are you here if you find talk about the election annoying? That's like going to a sports bar and complaining about all these people talking about football all the time.
This was so helpful! This morning a pundit was celebrating the new Bloomberg poll and i paused and said "OK, but what is the poll quality? I wonder how 538 rates it!" I'd like to get excited but I won't be 2016ed again if I can help it! 🩵
And if the polls are consistent for a week or two, can you aggregate them and does that reduce the margin of error?
Yes! That's what they mean when they recommend paying attention to the average