My kids live out of town and my enjoyment is to go see them and my grandkids. After listening to this podcast and others I look for a glimpse of what I can do now. I am exhausted and do not want to continue working. I am that employee that locks the door at the end of the day. Regrets now - that I did not take care of me - I just kept working. I hope people will read this and realize - time to take care of you!!! It’s our responsibility to do so.
@@daniellecooper1302 Thanks for the outlook. You should do well and research for a reliable broker to invest with, from there you can grow your portfolio and see your dream come through
@@daniellecooper1302 name like Karen Marie Emma is very different. I have signed up with her for years and her delivery is top notch^^. Just look the name up on the web and connect with her.
Anytime, @DS1918 -- I'm trying to lay out a few scenarios that are helpful in thinking about things. We have some issues to fix in our entitlement programs, but it Social Security going bankrupt, while it won't be fun, may not affect people as much as they think.
Sixty years ago Speaker of the House Tip O'Neal told Washington politicians that Social Security and Medicare need to be funded properly for future generations. For sixty years our politicians have swept the problem under the rug. Today the American people need to hold current and retired politicians criminally responsible for misfeasance in office.
Patrick Thanks for this! It's good to have an idea of what happens if ... I wasn't thinking of this scenario but will have to crunch the numbers to see what happens to us.
It is shameful what politicians have done to SS Benefits over the years Take a little it will be allright? Take a little more,were still OK All of a sudden, SS will be bankrupt by 2035 Deplorable situation All people responsible for this debacle, past and present should be held accountable. The John Does of this country, had/have no control over this issue There should be legislation brought Forward to stop anyone from tampering with SS and Medicare benefits Just my opinion, any thoughts?
I wonder how much money goes back to the government as a result of early death of single people who's paid into ss for years. It's got to be substantial.
You keep saying social security bankruptcy and it's not bankruptcy but Short fall You don't use a table for life expectancy at birth, you use a table for life expectancy at 62. Your purposely underestimating life spans which would favor collecting early Social Security will never be cut. It would cause a death spiral to US economy. Social Security money is overwhelmingly statistically spent and 65 million people taking a 25% pay cut would crash are economy
Statistically (but I don't think it's been adjusted in awhile so not 100%) But some people know that they have a very slim chance of living that long. I think heavy smokers or heavy drinkers for example
Unfortunately, this analysis doesn’t address the likelihood that benefits will be cut -it accepts the projections at face value. The political reality is that somehow, someway fixes will be made to eliminate this risk for millions of Americans (and voters).
Social security has to be fixed, the consequences of the US economy would be dire. 65 million checks a month and 65 million people getting a 25% pay cut won't happen. The economy would spiral downward and crash
I hate to say it, but I don't expect politicians (both parties) to touch the "third rail" and start fixing our entitlement systems before it's absolutely necessary.
@@HowToRetire wasn't that exactly what happened in 1983? I'm not old enough to remember but I have went back and read articles from then and they seem to indicate it was at the final hour a fix was agreed on
@@HowToRetire definitely harder to fix this time. But the biggest question is who pays for it. You can easily mathematically figure out a way to fix it as soon as you politically find out a way who pays for it. The political problem is bigger than the mathematical problem.
No, it’s not going bankrupt. The payroll tax just will not fund all the benefits. A 20% cut would be necessary. However that won’t happen. Stop the fearmongering!
Three to Seven years from retirement now: I'm already planning for the Social Security Trust Fund to be depleted. I'm somewhat "insulated" by having a Public Pension with an 2% Simple Interest COLA & a 80% Purchase Power guarantee. Worst Case: 75% Social Security plus 80% of my effective Calpers Benefit. If Inflation remains high in three years I'll continue to let CalPers & Social Security grow, IF I NEED TOO, during that four year window. The larger the "Number" is when I retire, the better I'll be with "Benefit Reduction".
I'll be dead by then anyway. I've saved my entire life. I retired 16 years ago because I was burnt out by manager stupidity, I was not allowed to create anymore and the whole thing seem pointless. I fell like a cow being milked but not fed. The business collapsed later anyway. Now I'm 74 1/2, don't spend my SSI , but invest it in SPY. I live on my pension annuity. I doubt I'll ever spend any SPY money. Maybe my kids and grandchildren will.They are welcome to it. Or the whole system will crash and there won't be any SPY or SSI money. I've always thought it was better to have at least one backup plan rather than following the lemmings going over the cliff. I have two btw.
Something is wrong with your calculations, chef Steve only has a 97% chance if he lives to age 76?. He doesn't start collecting social security till he is 70 and has a million dollars? he must be spending like a drunken sailor.
Here's my fix without raising the SS tax % - Starting in 2023, remove the income cap altogether so all wages are subject the SS tax. Do a slight slope increase in the base bend point of the SS formula to help out the lower earners. Each birth year after 1960 gets 2 months added to the FRA until it reaches 70. Born in 1960? FRA is 67. Born in 1978 or later? FRA is 70. At the same time, add 2 months past age 70 per birth year for those who wish to delay benefits and collect the max. Born in 1960? Your max SS benefit would still occur at age 70. Born in 1978 or later? Your max SS benefit would occur at age 73. This should make the program solvent for another 75-80 years, help lower wage earners, and still allow folks who want to delay benefits have a payout exceeding 100%. The min payout age remains 62 - if your FRA is greater than 67 and want more money, then just start your collection after 62.
Chef Pete is going to increase his benefits by 8% per year by delaying his filing for SS benefits. Compound this with 8-9% inflation adjustments and he should come out ahead. He will also not be drawing down his retirement savings while he delays claiming benefits. I think Pete is the winner of the chicken dinner.
You forgot one major reason the SST is projected to run out of money by 2035: Congress spending it. SST had ran a surplus up every year until 2021. Instead of leaving all the surplus in the SST, Congress spent it. I dislike the term bankrupt applying to the SST, because it is inaccurate. It is the SST reserve that is projected to run out by 2035. The reserve is used to offset any shortages in revenue from OASDI (Social security tax). The OASDI revenue is projected to be about 80% of funding liabilities by 2035. If SST starts to run a surplus again and Congress doesn't spend it again, this scenario could be moot. The what if the reserve runs out scenario is sort of pointless, given the political liability Congress and POTUS will have if SS payments are cut.
The Social Security trust fund is invested in treasury securities. The safest securities in the world. It is always paid back with interest as dictated by law. Exactly where would you put the trust fund if it wasn't in treasury securities and if you're getting ready to say the stock market President Bush already suggested that and the people spoke loud and clear they didn't want that
@@johngill2853 I don't think I questioned what SSTF was invested in. That wasn't the issue. Although they aren't really invested in treasuries, more like treasury IOUs are posted to the SSTF account. The issue has been that despite SS running a surplus since 2021. This has everything to do with the on again off again budget Congress has played around with, and remember that whole sequestration thing? Since we are continuing to run deficits, Treasury uses cash on hand first. Since the ss taxes don't actually go to SSTF directly, they get comingled with all the other revenue at the Treasury and are either on or off budget (currently off) for record keeping as treasury IOUs.
@@hanwagu9967 fair enough But your best statement in the original post is the biggest point. Social Security can't be cut because the political fallout. Or at least it can't be cut across the board, I could sure see some taxes being added
Raise the SS tax, it hasn't been raised since the 1970's. Lower the wages of all federal workers and end one tenth of wasteful federal programs. Just a couple of ideas to help SS. After all, we spend 900 billion dollars just of the military, other countries do not spend anywhere near that much, maybe 50 billion but nowhere near 900 billion.Cut, Cut, Cut.
THE GOSPEL Moreover, brethren, I declare unto you the gospel which I preached unto you, which also ye have received, and wherein ye stand; 2 By which also ye are saved, if ye keep in memory what I preached unto you, unless ye have believed in vain. 3 For I delivered unto you first of all that which I also received, how that Christ died for our sins according to the scriptures; 4 And that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the scriptures: - 1 Corinthians 15: 1-4 KJV Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends. - John 15:13 KJV SAVALATION For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life. - John 3:16 KJV For God sent not his Son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved. John 3:17 Jesus saith unto him, I am the way, the truth, and the life: no man cometh unto the Father, but by me. - John 14:6 KJV Neither is there salvation in any other: for there is none other name under heaven given among men, whereby we must be saved. Acts 4:12 For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life. Romans 5:10 But he was wounded for our transgressions, he was bruised for our iniquities: the chastisement of our peace was upon him; and with his stripes we are healed. - Isaiah 53:5 For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: it is the gift of God: Not of works, lest any man should boast. Ephesians 2:8-9 And saying, The time is fulfilled, and the kingdom of God is at hand: repent ye, and believe the gospel. - Mark 1:15 KJV He that believeth on the Son hath everlasting life: and he that believeth not the Son shall not see life; but the wrath of God abideth on him. - John 3:36 KJV Who hath saved us, and called us with an holy calling, not according to our works, but according to his own purpose and grace, which was given us in Christ Jesus before the world began. 2 Timothy 1:9 For the Son of man is come to seek and to save that which was lost. Luke 19:10 The Lord is not slack concerning his promise, as some men count slackness; but is longsuffering to us-ward, not willing that any should perish, but that all should come to repentance. 2 Peter 3:9 He that believeth and is baptized shall be saved; but he that believeth not shall be damned. Mark 16:16 For as in Adam all die, even so in Christ shall all be made alive. 1 Corinthians 15:22 For scarcely for a righteous man will one die: yet peradventure for a good man some would even dare to die. But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Romans 5:7-8 I am the door: by me if any man enter in, he shall be saved, and shall go in and out, and find pasture. John 10:9 That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. 10 For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation. 11 For the scripture saith, Whosoever believeth on him shall not be ashamed. - Romans 10:9-11 KJV For whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved. - Romans 10:13 KJV For I am not ashamed of the gospel of Christ: for it is the power of God unto salvation to every one that believeth; to the Jew first, and also to the Greek. Romans 1:16
My kids live out of town and my enjoyment is to go see them and my grandkids. After listening to this podcast and others I look for a glimpse of what I can do now. I am exhausted and do not want to continue working. I am that employee that locks the door at the end of the day. Regrets now - that I did not take care of me - I just kept working. I hope people will read this and realize - time to take care of you!!! It’s our responsibility to do so.
@Corey Todd Thank You Wise Soul Stay Blessed
@Michael Kalon You're better off, but we'll be alright. Goodluck!!
@@daniellecooper1302 Thanks for the outlook. You should do well and research for a reliable broker to invest with, from there you can grow your portfolio and see your dream come through
@@cherylhampton9292 You're right, but considering the market volatility these days, how do one get a reliable broker?
@@daniellecooper1302 name like Karen Marie Emma is very different. I have signed up with her for years and her delivery is top notch^^. Just look the name up on the web and connect with her.
Interesting video. I just reached my FRA and applied for SS. No looking back now.....Time will tell !
Thanks for calculating the best possible scenarios. Also, thanks for pushing us to look way forward in our planning.
Anytime, @DS1918 -- I'm trying to lay out a few scenarios that are helpful in thinking about things. We have some issues to fix in our entitlement programs, but it Social Security going bankrupt, while it won't be fun, may not affect people as much as they think.
Sixty years ago Speaker of the House Tip O'Neal told Washington politicians that Social Security and Medicare need to be funded properly for future generations. For sixty years our politicians have swept the problem under the rug. Today the American people need to hold current and retired politicians criminally responsible for misfeasance in office.
Patrick
Thanks for this! It's good to have an idea of what happens if ...
I wasn't thinking of this scenario but will have to crunch the numbers to see what happens to us.
SSI running out of money yet welfare is bottomless.
It is shameful what politicians have done to SS
Benefits over the years
Take a little it will be allright?
Take a little more,were still OK
All of a sudden, SS will be bankrupt by 2035
Deplorable situation
All people responsible for this debacle, past and present should be held accountable.
The John Does of this country, had/have no control over this issue
There should be legislation brought
Forward to stop anyone from tampering with SS and Medicare benefits
Just my opinion, any thoughts?
I am about to start. I know i paid for 45 years. I want whats due to me in retirement
Canada has a similar regime - Canada Pension Plan - which is flush with cash. There’s no reason why SS cannot be more sustainable.
well CPP premiums have also increased, which is an option in the US to increase OASDI.
I wonder how much money goes back to the government as a result of early death of single people who's paid into ss for years. It's got to be substantial.
You keep saying social security bankruptcy and it's not bankruptcy but Short fall
You don't use a table for life expectancy at birth, you use a table for life expectancy at 62. Your purposely underestimating life spans which would favor collecting early
Social Security will never be cut. It would cause a death spiral to US economy. Social Security money is overwhelmingly statistically spent and 65 million people taking a 25% pay cut would crash are economy
It is always the same thing with Social Security planning. No matter when you start, your payout will be very similar given life expectancies.
Statistically (but I don't think it's been adjusted in awhile so not 100%)
But some people know that they have a very slim chance of living that long. I think heavy smokers or heavy drinkers for example
In your opinion, what is the probability of SS benefits getting cut by 20% in 2035? Thanks!
Do not forget your Spouse...Claiming SS later affects their benefits if you die. Prob claim at FRA 68.
Unfortunately, this analysis doesn’t address the likelihood that benefits will be cut -it accepts the projections at face value. The political reality is that somehow, someway fixes will be made to eliminate this risk for millions of Americans (and voters).
Social security has to be fixed, the consequences of the US economy would be dire.
65 million checks a month and 65 million people getting a 25% pay cut won't happen. The economy would spiral downward and crash
I hate to say it, but I don't expect politicians (both parties) to touch the "third rail" and start fixing our entitlement systems before it's absolutely necessary.
@@HowToRetire wasn't that exactly what happened in 1983? I'm not old enough to remember but I have went back and read articles from then and they seem to indicate it was at the final hour a fix was agreed on
@john gill -- pretty much. However, I get the sense that this may be a trickier problem. We'll see. A lot can happen between now and 2035...
@@HowToRetire definitely harder to fix this time. But the biggest question is who pays for it. You can easily mathematically figure out a way to fix it as soon as you politically find out a way who pays for it.
The political problem is bigger than the mathematical problem.
No, it’s not going bankrupt. The payroll tax just will not fund all the benefits. A 20% cut would be necessary. However that won’t happen. Stop the fearmongering!
Three to Seven years from retirement now: I'm already planning for the Social Security Trust Fund to be depleted. I'm somewhat "insulated" by having a Public Pension with an 2% Simple Interest COLA & a 80% Purchase Power guarantee. Worst Case: 75% Social Security plus 80% of my effective Calpers Benefit. If Inflation remains high in three years I'll continue to let CalPers & Social Security grow, IF I NEED TOO, during that four year window. The larger the "Number" is when I retire, the better I'll be with "Benefit Reduction".
If I need to, not If I need too. FYI
2035 that’s about the time I’m supposed to retire, yikes
I'll be dead by then anyway. I've saved my entire life. I retired 16 years ago because I was burnt out by manager stupidity, I was not allowed to create anymore and the whole thing seem pointless. I fell like a cow being milked but not fed. The business collapsed later anyway. Now I'm 74 1/2, don't spend my SSI , but invest it in SPY. I live on my pension annuity. I doubt I'll ever spend any SPY money. Maybe my kids and grandchildren will.They are welcome to it. Or the whole system will crash and there won't be any SPY or SSI money. I've always thought it was better to have at least one backup plan rather than following the lemmings going over the cliff. I have two btw.
Something is wrong with your calculations, chef Steve only has a 97% chance if he lives to age 76?. He doesn't start collecting social security till he is 70 and has a million dollars? he must be spending like a drunken sailor.
They won’t let you Fly at 70 you will be decertified before then - not all jobs will just let you work!!!
Retiring at a certain age and collecting SS are not the same thing. Retire when you want to, collect SS at 70.
Here's my fix without raising the SS tax % -
Starting in 2023, remove the income cap altogether so all wages are subject the SS tax. Do a slight slope increase in the base bend point of the SS formula to help out the lower earners. Each birth year after 1960 gets 2 months added to the FRA until it reaches 70. Born in 1960? FRA is 67. Born in 1978 or later? FRA is 70. At the same time, add 2 months past age 70 per birth year for those who wish to delay benefits and collect the max. Born in 1960? Your max SS benefit would still occur at age 70. Born in 1978 or later? Your max SS benefit would occur at age 73.
This should make the program solvent for another 75-80 years, help lower wage earners, and still allow folks who want to delay benefits have a payout exceeding 100%. The min payout age remains 62 - if your FRA is greater than 67 and want more money, then just start your collection after 62.
Will you run for office please??
Chef Pete is going to increase his benefits by 8% per year by delaying his filing for SS benefits. Compound this with 8-9% inflation adjustments and he should come out ahead. He will also not be drawing down his retirement savings while he delays claiming benefits. I think Pete is the winner of the chicken dinner.
You forgot one major reason the SST is projected to run out of money by 2035: Congress spending it. SST had ran a surplus up every year until 2021. Instead of leaving all the surplus in the SST, Congress spent it. I dislike the term bankrupt applying to the SST, because it is inaccurate. It is the SST reserve that is projected to run out by 2035. The reserve is used to offset any shortages in revenue from OASDI (Social security tax). The OASDI revenue is projected to be about 80% of funding liabilities by 2035. If SST starts to run a surplus again and Congress doesn't spend it again, this scenario could be moot. The what if the reserve runs out scenario is sort of pointless, given the political liability Congress and POTUS will have if SS payments are cut.
The Social Security trust fund is invested in treasury securities. The safest securities in the world.
It is always paid back with interest as dictated by law. Exactly where would you put the trust fund if it wasn't in treasury securities and if you're getting ready to say the stock market President Bush already suggested that and the people spoke loud and clear they didn't want that
@@johngill2853 I don't think I questioned what SSTF was invested in. That wasn't the issue. Although they aren't really invested in treasuries, more like treasury IOUs are posted to the SSTF account. The issue has been that despite SS running a surplus since 2021. This has everything to do with the on again off again budget Congress has played around with, and remember that whole sequestration thing? Since we are continuing to run deficits, Treasury uses cash on hand first. Since the ss taxes don't actually go to SSTF directly, they get comingled with all the other revenue at the Treasury and are either on or off budget (currently off) for record keeping as treasury IOUs.
@@hanwagu9967 fair enough
But your best statement in the original post is the biggest point. Social Security can't be cut because the political fallout. Or at least it can't be cut across the board, I could sure see some taxes being added
@@hanwagu9967 Stop implying that SS funds are being spent by Congress.
SS benefits need to be cut
No they do not.
Stop stealing our money.
Not bankrupt in 2035!
Raise the SS tax, it hasn't been raised since the 1970's. Lower the wages of all federal workers and end one tenth of wasteful federal programs. Just a couple of ideas to help SS. After all, we spend 900 billion dollars just of the military, other countries do not spend anywhere near that much, maybe 50 billion but nowhere near 900 billion.Cut, Cut, Cut.
SS benefits should be cut by 50% immediately.
THE GOSPEL
Moreover, brethren, I declare unto you the gospel which I preached unto you, which also
ye have received, and wherein ye stand; 2 By which also ye are saved, if ye keep in memory what I preached unto you, unless ye have believed in vain. 3 For I delivered unto you first of all that which I also received, how that Christ died for our sins according to the scriptures; 4 And that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the scriptures:
- 1 Corinthians 15: 1-4 KJV
Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends. - John 15:13 KJV
SAVALATION
For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.
- John 3:16 KJV
For God sent not his Son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved. John 3:17
Jesus saith unto him, I am the way, the truth, and the life: no man cometh unto the Father, but by me.
- John 14:6 KJV
Neither is there salvation in any other: for there is none other name under heaven given among men, whereby we must be saved. Acts 4:12
For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life. Romans 5:10
But he was wounded for our transgressions, he was bruised for our iniquities: the chastisement of our peace was upon him; and with his stripes we are healed. - Isaiah 53:5
For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: it is the gift of God: Not of works, lest any man should boast. Ephesians 2:8-9
And saying, The time is fulfilled, and the kingdom of God is at hand: repent ye, and believe the gospel.
- Mark 1:15 KJV
He that believeth on the Son hath everlasting life: and he that believeth not the Son shall not see life; but the wrath of God abideth on him.
- John 3:36 KJV
Who hath saved us, and called us with an holy calling, not according to our works, but according to his own purpose and grace, which was given us in Christ Jesus before the world began. 2 Timothy 1:9
For the Son of man is come to seek and to save that which was lost. Luke 19:10
The Lord is not slack concerning his promise, as some men count slackness; but is longsuffering to us-ward, not willing that any should perish, but that all should come to repentance. 2 Peter 3:9
He that believeth and is baptized shall be saved; but he that believeth not shall be damned. Mark 16:16
For as in Adam all die, even so in Christ shall all be made alive. 1 Corinthians 15:22
For scarcely for a righteous man will one die: yet peradventure for a good man some would even dare to die. But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Romans 5:7-8
I am the door: by me if any man enter in, he shall be saved, and shall go in and out, and find pasture. John 10:9
That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. 10 For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation. 11 For the scripture saith, Whosoever believeth on him shall not be ashamed.
- Romans 10:9-11 KJV
For whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.
- Romans 10:13 KJV
For I am not ashamed of the gospel of Christ: for it is the power of God unto salvation to every one that believeth; to the Jew first, and also to the Greek. Romans 1:16