Very interesting apart from you’ve managed to back at 2.9 and lay at 2.62 on the Win part. I will look to go for the double whammy and find a Bet 365 4/1 + race and possibly grab a free bet at the same time. Fascinating watching these videos, I worked for nearly 30 years in the industry (Ladbrokes and Stan James) until 2009 and it’s a whole new ball game now.
Very good video will have to try this. Would you say this is a better way to do for races that there are only one extra place? I've looked at loads of races and it's actually not that easy to have the horse land exactly on the place you want so wondering if this method is better long term.
Hi. Great video. Only thing I would say is the main 'value' is coming from your Win Lay Odss right? Your odds for the Win Lay are lower than the win odds, which is creating the arb. Your place lay odds are good but they're not necessarily creating the value or the arb? I may be wrong but either way, great video
Hi Tom, Thanks for watching, appreciate it! Normally when arbing it would actually have to be the back odds with the bookmaker that are higher than the lay odds on the betting exchange and not the other way around to lock in a profit. When arbing extra places this is a little more complex however, as your placing a 2 part back bet with the bookmaker both on the horse to win and the placing of the horse. The win part of the back bet and the laying of that win part on the exchange results in small loss as the bookie back odds must always must be higher than the exchange lay odds to make a profit in all cases. The value and the profit comes as we are able lower the place lay odds down sufficiently enough to the point that we create the arb. Cheers, Liam
When you have multiple extra place races (i.e. paying 5 places on a 3 horse race), is it possible to exploit this even further? As I understand it, the profit here comes because you are guaranteed that either you'll win on the lay bet on the bookie (1234) or the back bet on the exchange (5678...). Then you're basically taking advantage of the discrepancy in odds caused by the additional place. But there is no benefit to it actually landing on the "extra place" of 4th. But often bookies will pay 5 places instead of 3. If you here put a lay bet against 4 places and an EW bet on 5 places (up from 3), then you would cover all the bases and guarantee a win as above, but if it finished 5th, you would also get the EP win. Is that correct?
How many races can you do on this in a day? And also how long before races would be ideal to do this as I can’t seem to find arbs as the rating only goes to around 89% when i try? Cheers great video!
Realistically you should be able to do this on most races every single week. With lower quality mid week racing where the interest isn’t as high, you will most likely only be able to get on an arb right before post time. With the bigger racing events with more interest (normally on weekends) the volume and liquidity is much higher on the exchange. This means that you should be able to get on some decent arbs up to a few hours before post time. Cheers, Liam
Hi Blase, If this is the case you should target the higher place market as the horse has much more chance of landing in the first four places as opposed to the first two places, therefore, the odds in the higher place market will be shorter, this will provide a higher match rating
Cheers Nick, Yes I do get restrictions when using these types of strategies that have an edge over the bookies. I just have to take them on the chin when they occur, luckily in most cases, the accounts have lasted a long time and I have been able to get quite a lot of profit out of them before getting stake restricted.
Hi.does it always have to be one place above the normal or can it be more?.for instance if the place market is 5 and there's an option to lay 6 places and one to lay 7 places ,would it still work If you layed 7 places instead?
Hi there, this wouldnt work unfortunately as you would be laying postion 6 and 7 but you wouldnt be covering it using a back bet. So if the horse actually finished in postion 6 or 7 that would result in a loss. This can work the other way round however, so if a bookmaker was paying out 2 places more than the standard exchange place lay market, you could lay in the place market 1 place above and potentialy get an arb whilst still having potental for the horse to land in the other extra place and lock in a profit!
I’ve been attempting this method and haven’t had much luck with finding matches that can be boosted above 100%. In your experience when is the best time to find horses with a 90% rate ?
@@Jamie-nm8ru generally in the last 5 mins or so before post time is where you will find the best matches above 90%. On Saturdays you may get the opportunity slightly earlier than this due to the increased interest in some of those horse races
@@Jamie-nm8ru yes it is, make sure that the lay stake that your using is smaller than available liquidity on any selection that your laying on the exchange. Smarkets are normally pretty good at matching you if there isn’t quite enough liquidity on the selection but always try to make sure that there is. I’ve got a video on TH-cam which covers liquidity in a little more detail, feel free to check it out!
What happens if a few horses drop out and then the bookie no longer pays out the extra place but then the horse finishes in that extra place but you also lose on the exchange too?
If too many withdrawals occur the bookmaker can reduce the number of places that they pay out on. There is a guide on the oddsmonkey website which shows how many runners need to partake before the bookie changes the places paid or the fraction of the back odds they payout on. If the horse then lands in the EP position which is no longer covered by the bookie you would take a loss because the exchange is still covering the lay on that position.
This is only possible on Smarkets at higher quality racing events, they generally only have the one place market for the vast majority of races. Betfair pretty much always have various markets open so its most commonly possible to arb using Betfair.
Yes, this can be done on the vast majority of races, the best time to do this and the most opportunity is in the last few minutes before post time. Big races will have more liquidity on the higher place market on the exchange, this means you will be able to pull out more profit from the larger races.
Thanks for the reply, I now have a good understanding. In terms of this method, although its guaranteed profit, could the account be gubbed or not really?
@@astarpornstars3815 there’s always a chance of being gubbed when doing anything with a profitable edge, which unfortunately is Matched Betting in general. However, with arbing extra places your generally still taking a poor price with the bookmaker which is what they look for from their recreational customers. The value and profit for us is being derived from the place market on the exchange in most cases😊
I've signed up for OddsMonkey using your link and I use EW Sniper on a daily basis, which is working well for me. Are there any other tools you would recommend to use?
Thanks very much, it's much appreciated :) Personally, I'm just using OddsMonkey for matched betting, I have previously heard about sniper, have you had positive results from using it?
@@ProfitPineapple To my surprise, yes! You need to place at least 20 bets a day using this but since I've used this for just a week now, 5 out of 7 days have come back with a positive result. Treat it like a business, it will pay like one! Im also using Bet Beth and that is just a blast, with every day positve! Shouldn't say much more about that, don't want to give any spoilers away :) Im trying to focus more on dutching and your videos have been a great help. How do you view dutching vs matched betting ?
This works the best and is easiest to do on Saturdays when the volume and liquidity is at the peak of each week. With most lower quality races the opportunity to do this only arises in the last few minutes before post time
@@M20-q7d no problem mate, keep on the look out for bet365 having lots of really high matches on certain races in the last 5 mins or so before post time, there’s normally some really good opportunity’s there!
This would be ideal but you are limited to the amount of money available on the betting exchange. At higher profile meetings you will likely find more money being offred out on the exchange
Very interesting apart from you’ve managed to back at 2.9 and lay at 2.62 on the Win part.
I will look to go for the double whammy and find a Bet 365 4/1 + race and possibly grab a free bet at the same time.
Fascinating watching these videos, I worked for nearly 30 years in the industry (Ladbrokes and Stan James) until 2009 and it’s a whole new ball game now.
Do you put the bet on 3 places or only change the odds and place bet on place lay? And do you place the back bet and win lay as normal
Hi, where on smarkets can you choose extra place bet markets (up to 4 instead of 3), tried but couldn't get anything other than up to 3 place market.
Very good video will have to try this. Would you say this is a better way to do for races that there are only one extra place? I've looked at loads of races and it's actually not that easy to have the horse land exactly on the place you want so wondering if this method is better long term.
Why do you back e/w and not just back in the place market?
just seen this Thank you so much so glad I found you juut amazing my good friend
Hi.
Great video. Only thing I would say is the main 'value' is coming from your Win Lay Odss right?
Your odds for the Win Lay are lower than the win odds, which is creating the arb.
Your place lay odds are good but they're not necessarily creating the value or the arb?
I may be wrong but either way, great video
Hi Tom,
Thanks for watching, appreciate it!
Normally when arbing it would actually have to be the back odds with the bookmaker that are higher than the lay odds on the betting exchange and not the other way around to lock in a profit.
When arbing extra places this is a little more complex however, as your placing a 2 part back bet with the bookmaker both on the horse to win and the placing of the horse.
The win part of the back bet and the laying of that win part on the exchange results in small loss as the bookie back odds must always must be higher than the exchange lay odds to make a profit in all cases.
The value and the profit comes as we are able lower the place lay odds down sufficiently enough to the point that we create the arb.
Cheers,
Liam
When you have multiple extra place races (i.e. paying 5 places on a 3 horse race), is it possible to exploit this even further?
As I understand it, the profit here comes because you are guaranteed that either you'll win on the lay bet on the bookie (1234) or the back bet on the exchange (5678...). Then you're basically taking advantage of the discrepancy in odds caused by the additional place. But there is no benefit to it actually landing on the "extra place" of 4th.
But often bookies will pay 5 places instead of 3. If you here put a lay bet against 4 places and an EW bet on 5 places (up from 3), then you would cover all the bases and guarantee a win as above, but if it finished 5th, you would also get the EP win. Is that correct?
Nice video mate. Decent trim too 😁👍
Looking forward to the next video. Cheers
Cheers Mark appreciate it pal👍
I was wondering how many people would pick up on the quick haircut!
@@ProfitPineapple haha hopefully more people were actually digesting the content rather than just admiring the haircut!
How many races can you do on this in a day? And also how long before races would be ideal to do this as I can’t seem to find arbs as the rating only goes to around 89% when i try? Cheers great video!
Realistically you should be able to do this on most races every single week.
With lower quality mid week racing where the interest isn’t as high, you will most likely only be able to get on an arb right before post time.
With the bigger racing events with more interest (normally on weekends) the volume and liquidity is much higher on the exchange. This means that you should be able to get on some decent arbs up to a few hours before post time.
Cheers,
Liam
What if a race has 2 places and also 4 places options? which one do I select then?
Hi Blase,
If this is the case you should target the higher place market as the horse has much more chance of landing in the first four places as opposed to the first two places, therefore, the odds in the higher place market will be shorter, this will provide a higher match rating
Hi, thanks for all the great videos. Did you ever get restricted doing this?
Cheers Nick,
Yes I do get restrictions when using these types of strategies that have an edge over the bookies. I just have to take them on the chin when they occur, luckily in most cases, the accounts have lasted a long time and I have been able to get quite a lot of profit out of them before getting stake restricted.
Hi.does it always have to be one place above the normal or can it be more?.for instance if the place market is 5 and there's an option to lay 6 places and one to lay 7 places ,would it still work If you layed 7 places instead?
Hi there, this wouldnt work unfortunately as you would be laying postion 6 and 7 but you wouldnt be covering it using a back bet. So if the horse actually finished in postion 6 or 7 that would result in a loss.
This can work the other way round however, so if a bookmaker was paying out 2 places more than the standard exchange place lay market, you could lay in the place market 1 place above and potentialy get an arb whilst still having potental for the horse to land in the other extra place and lock in a profit!
@@ProfitPineapple ah I get it now thanks.
Just what I needed again , especially with the football season coming to an end soon.I appreciate the good content, keep it coming !👊🏾📈
Not a problem Jamie, thanks for watching 👍
I’ve been attempting this method and haven’t had much luck with finding matches that can be boosted above 100%. In your experience when is the best time to find horses with a 90% rate ?
@@Jamie-nm8ru generally in the last 5 mins or so before post time is where you will find the best matches above 90%.
On Saturdays you may get the opportunity slightly earlier than this due to the increased interest in some of those horse races
My final question is , is it important to pay attention to the liquidity before placing all your lay bets ? Thanks again Liam
@@Jamie-nm8ru yes it is, make sure that the lay stake that your using is smaller than available liquidity on any selection that your laying on the exchange.
Smarkets are normally pretty good at matching you if there isn’t quite enough liquidity on the selection but always try to make sure that there is.
I’ve got a video on TH-cam which covers liquidity in a little more detail, feel free to check it out!
Great video mate. very well explained. top notch.
Thanks Stephen,
Appreciate it mate 👍
What happens if a few horses drop out and then the bookie no longer pays out the extra place but then the horse finishes in that extra place but you also lose on the exchange too?
If too many withdrawals occur the bookmaker can reduce the number of places that they pay out on. There is a guide on the oddsmonkey website which shows how many runners need to partake before the bookie changes the places paid or the fraction of the back odds they payout on.
If the horse then lands in the EP position which is no longer covered by the bookie you would take a loss because the exchange is still covering the lay on that position.
How do you do this on smarkets
This is only possible on Smarkets at higher quality racing events, they generally only have the one place market for the vast majority of races. Betfair pretty much always have various markets open so its most commonly possible to arb using Betfair.
This is witchcraft!!! 😲
Subbed! 😃
Thank you, much appreciated 👍
Love it. Great video.
Thanks Lee, appreciate it mate
All I can hear is Tyson fury
Thanks for the info
Not a problem, thanks for watching!
Can this be done on every race?
Yes, this can be done on the vast majority of races, the best time to do this and the most opportunity is in the last few minutes before post time.
Big races will have more liquidity on the higher place market on the exchange, this means you will be able to pull out more profit from the larger races.
Thanks for the reply, I now have a good understanding. In terms of this method, although its guaranteed profit, could the account be gubbed or not really?
@@astarpornstars3815 there’s always a chance of being gubbed when doing anything with a profitable edge, which unfortunately is Matched Betting in general.
However, with arbing extra places your generally still taking a poor price with the bookmaker which is what they look for from their recreational customers.
The value and profit for us is being derived from the place market on the exchange in most cases😊
Thanks buddy, looks like another source of income is arbing 🤣🤣
@@astarpornstars3815 yep, just be sure to only take arbs on extra places, we want to be staying well away from conventional arbs!
I've signed up for OddsMonkey using your link and I use EW Sniper on a daily basis, which is working well for me. Are there any other tools you would recommend to use?
Thanks very much, it's much appreciated :)
Personally, I'm just using OddsMonkey for matched betting, I have previously heard about sniper, have you had positive results from using it?
@@ProfitPineapple To my surprise, yes! You need to place at least 20 bets a day using this but since I've used this for just a week now, 5 out of 7 days have come back with a positive result. Treat it like a business, it will pay like one! Im also using Bet Beth and that is just a blast, with every day positve! Shouldn't say much more about that, don't want to give any spoilers away :) Im trying to focus more on dutching and your videos have been a great help. How do you view dutching vs matched betting ?
Checked for few days after seeing this vid and not even one horse got rating of 92%+
This works the best and is easiest to do on Saturdays when the volume and liquidity is at the peak of each week.
With most lower quality races the opportunity to do this only arises in the last few minutes before post time
@@ProfitPineapple Thanks mate, Will give another try this Saturday.
@@M20-q7d no problem mate, keep on the look out for bet365 having lots of really high matches on certain races in the last 5 mins or so before post time, there’s normally some really good opportunity’s there!
why don't u just use 1k instead of 100 pounds since the profit is guaranteed
This would be ideal but you are limited to the amount of money available on the betting exchange. At higher profile meetings you will likely find more money being offred out on the exchange
Cheeky haircut mid video
Well spotted!
I recorded the intro and the walkthrough on different days! 😀