Timeline of Dishonor: How the Starks Betrayed Rhaenyra
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.พ. 2024
- Here is it, a new theory video. This took way too much effort. In the end, its long and technical and perhaps unwatchable, but shows how the Starks are the real villains of the Dance of the Dragons.
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Game of Thrones is an American fantasy drama television series created for HBO by David Benioff and D. B. Weiss. Based on the fantasy novel series, A Song of Ice and Fire by George R.R. Martin. A Game of Thrones is one of the most successful television series to ever made and continues to captivate audiences all over the world. The series is set on the fictional continents of Westeros and Essos, and interweaves several plot lines with a large ensemble cast. The first narrative arc follows a civil war among several noble houses for the Iron Throne of the Seven Kingdoms; the second covers the attempts to reclaim the throne by the exiled last scion of the realm's deposed ruling dynasty; the third chronicles the rising threat of the impending winter and the legendary creatures and fierce peoples of the North.
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Stormlanders were procrastinating aswell, Boros Baratheon only marched after Rhaenyra's death. It looks like they all were afraid to face dragons in battle.
Not an unreasonable fear.
During Rhaenyra's reign over King's Landing, Boros Baratheon was dealing with a new dornish uprising led by the third Vulture King
@@spenstings Yeah, sure he was.
Convenient how he managed to beat the Dornish and return to take over King’s Landing as soon as the Dragons were all dead and seemingly all the major fighting was done.
@@thankgod4rednecsinnitt290 He of course made a choosing of opponents 😂
Absolutely was. Boros knew that the only reason he was lording over Storm's End is because dragons allowed his Great-Grandfather to take it.
I bet it was a bed time story for every Baratheon 'Don't fuck with dragons'.
It's hilarious how Cregan was so obviously late and acted all pissed off at Tullys for celebrating, called them pups when it was actually the riverlanders who did all the fighting for Rhaenyra.
Cregan honestly is a genius for how he handled the North's involvement in the war.
He kept his people out of the fighting for as long as possible, let his enemies destroy themselves, and swooped in to finish the war and prosecute his "enemies" after the fighting was over. And what could the survivors do? Criticize him for being late? Corlys defected and took a pardon after Rhaenyra died, Lady Arryn was late, most of Rhaenyra's supporters were dead or severely undermanned, and all the perpetrators of Aegon II's faction were either dead or now imprisoned.
Cregan held all the cards, put on a grand display of "justice" to show how "committed" he was to Rhaenyra that just happened to distract the world from the fact that he took two years to make a 4 month trip, and then went home as the noble hero.
S-tier leadership. No notes.
To be fair, it does take some time to call your banners. Not two years. But you would think like a month or two.
@@patrickhenry1249remember the north is vast and they're ppl are very spread out so a muster, before harvest is done would probably take 8 months
@@jordanpax9735 Did it take that long for Robb though? I was under the impression the time between a Game of Thrones and a Clash of Kings wasn’t that long.
So using the Vandal Proof timeline (which is the most comprehensive timeline available AND the basis for the FanFic's):
The letter Sansa sends to Robb begging him to bend the knee arrives in Winterfell on 11/8. That is also the day Robb calls the banners.
Robb and the host he gathered on short notice leaves Winterfell on 12/9 (two days after the start of Bran 6) and we don't hear from Robb again until Cat 8 on 12/25 (Merry Day of the Seven, everyone) when they link up at Moat Caillin.
1/9 is the Battle of the Whispering Wood.
1/15 is the lifting of the Siege of Riverrun
1/16 Robb is crowned King inside the walls of Riverrun
So assuming this timeline is correct, the North can theoretically muster enough men to launch an invasion south (roughly 20,000 men, as Roose Bolton commanded a host of ~17,000 at the Green Fork and Robb commanded ~6,000 men during his attack on Jaime and the besiegers at Riverrun) in less than 2 months, there's absolutely no reason why Cregan couldn't have been south of The Neck by the end of the year.
Even assuming they needed to hold back to gather their crops before marching, it doesn't take six months to gather the last harvest before winter sets in. If anything, they should be racing down south to alleviate food shortages for the women and children up North while the fighting men pillage the South for about a year and return with full bellies, maybe a baggage train of captured foodstuffs, and loot that they can turn around and buy food with if the winter gets extreme enough.
Update to my last reply: I know the circumstances are different between Robb and Cregan (Robb is trying to save his Dad vs. Cregan being sucked into a war a thousand miles away) but Cregan still married his kid into the Royal Family. It's his problem now. If he really cared about getting his kid with ties to the line of succession actually IN that line of succession, he'd have been south within five months, and even THAT is an extremely long time to muster enough men to fight a war.
The intro reminds me of your old videos
So nostalgic
So true! These intros are a nice calling card
Yeah it's great
agreed, better times haha
"I'm gathering my troops." Aka "the check is in the mail." 😂
I do hope that HotD adapts it this way. Could be a lot of fun toying with people's expectations of the Freys versus the Starks, to have the Late Lord Frey's predecessors move extremely quickly and put in 110% effort to help Rhaenyra, while the Starks dither and stall (not that I'd blame them - for once their geography helps them out; they don't have to deal with the rock and hard place that trap poor Rosby and Stokeworth)
The Winter Wolves fought with the Freys in the initial battles, though the number of 2000 might seem low, it bears keeping in mind that most battles at this time period were fought by less than 10000 men on both sides. In the Battle by the Lakeshore they outnumbered the Frey contingent by over a thousand men.
I think HotD want to bring the wall and the white walkers back into the story, so my guess is that they are going to play it as Cregan and his forces being busy with that - but I honestly would prefer it all being politically motivated stalling.
@@DominionSorcererwhich I find strange considering we know the Frey’s hold more lands, and more small folk and lesser houses to draw from than House Tully. Even before the conquest they were stronger. You’d think they’d have more men.
@@Lespritdelescalithe Wall and Others have nothing to do with this part of the lore. They still won’t emerge for another century and a half.
@@aaroncohen2700 they do have more manpower, but this is a time period where there are flying weapons of mass destruction that breathe fire. Battles at this time in Westerosi history aren't won through size but by dragons, so bigger armies are just bigger targets.
I mean most of the honourabe Starks we met were either raised by Arryn or someone else raised by Arryn.
I've never considered this before, thanks.
damn I never even thought about that
Benjen is kinda honorable i guess
@@jaafarchaoui185is he? We dont actually know that, we know very little about him and the Rhaegar + Lyanna + Reed + Laughing three story. Why would an only brother join the Nights Watch?
And the Karstarks, not exactly known for their honour, are literally Starks.
I missed these old school theories!! Great stuff Preston!
I agree, this is what I subscribed for. Not for his fanfiction, not for his podcasts.
@@DanielGalimidiCarmine alone makes it unwatchable
Reminds me of Doran’s kimdissi philosophy in the deeper dorne series. The valyrian houses destroy themselves whilst Cregan Stark and Torrhen Manderly end up on top as hand of the king and regent.
Seeing as the only chalangers to targarian rule are other targarians, thus civil war is the only danger they could ever face, they must all be fools for allowing civil war to happen and universaly taking sides in it.
“I’m probably wrong about half of this”-perhaps resurrected by one of those mysterious Hightowers nobody ever sees?
Cregan was dealing with problems of his own. He'd just deposed his uncle, who'd basically kept him under house arrest for years, and doubtless had allies in the northern houses who Cregan couldn't fully trust. You only get the maester's version of what happened in those years, but the north was probably doing a little civil war of it's own.
Nice point. Also, bring in a new baby boy as your only heir and a recently deceased wife. Well, why risk your hard fought lordship for dragon fire?
@@jordanthompson1418true. No sense in leaving a young heir around after you take over your lordship from your uncle and his sons. If Cregan dies what’s to stop his uncle or cousins from controlling his heir?
Great work as always! It'll be interesting to see how things are portrayed in the show, I'm unsure if they'll be willing to even broach the idea of Starks being less than honorable.
When I last read F&B, I definitely felt like something was off with the timing of the Northmen's arrival. Thank you for laying it all out!
So true!
I mean. . . I don't blame them. If you are faced with a guy with a dragon demanding you join them, can you really say no? You nod your head and then drag your feet. After all, what are the Blacks or the Greens to them? Why should they care about their family drama?
Yeah and if you think about it the promise of an unborn daughter marring your son is kinda a bad offer, like Jace would not even marry until the war is over
@@Kai555100 And there is no guarantee Jace will have a daughter.
i think in the end most houses did not care about who was king or queen. For most it would mattered nothing. Unless of course you felt betrayed or treated unjust. Then it was nice that you could declare to an alternative king/queen.
@@CorvoThan Well yeah, everyone in ASOIAF is mostly dishonorable and self interested. People like Jon are the exception.
@@markopavlovic5645 that's what realistic ab asoiaf
Waiting until winter is the smartest time for the Vale and the North to fight, for them. No one is conquering them or even trying to raid them during the winter.
The Maesters: "pssst! Ayy Starks... hang back until the dragons all eat each other."
Starks: "What about the other houses? Won't we look weak?"
The Maesters: "Nah, homie! We're in every house. Same deal... Let them burn each other down first, riiiight?."
Starks: "Bet" 🤔
*And what a grand plot it was!!*
NEW BIG VIDEO!!!!!!!! I though there will be only streams and fanfic till the endtime.
We need more videos like this Preston’s going back to his roots ! Love it
Perhaps it was both Dunks adventure in the north as well as Jon Arryn who were directly responsible for the Starks code of Honor
Ah, perfect timing Preston. Was seaching for something to listen to.
I guess you're searching again
We are so back sisters
Based Starks saw an opportunity to weaken the damned dragon lords and took it.
Wake up babe, new Preston Jacobs theory video just dropped.
new preston jacobs FACT video
I actually laughed out loud when you said the North only came 2 YEARS after the pact.
?
@@sachamason3116 watch the video and make a proper reply instead of just typing fucking question marks
?
@@AManChoosesASlaveObeys bro you think you're funny?
@@Plostersa817 I think you're too salty for a simple question mark in a comment section :D We can be friends and vent out the frustrations your have. The internet is full of bad things, everybody can find something good inside of it ^_^
I think there are good points here but I came to a different conclusion. Is it more or less honorable to send your entire army to get roasted by dragons, or to hold them back strategically until they can be properly utilized? It seems like yes, this was an intentional choice, but in the end it (debatably) saved northern and vale lives.
I understand not wanting to get involved but then parading around and talking loud about honor, traitors and weaklings (Pups) to all the parties involved in one of the most destructive wars of Westeros was just hard to swallow. Good thing my boy Alyn Velaryon was not going to allow Cregan to have it his way and was ready with his fleet to cause mayhem if something happened to Corlys.
Yeah I Always had that feeling that the Starks having problems to prepare their army was nonsence and very opportunistic
After all Cregan only entered the War when the dance was almost over and he made a flawless War and later Robb a century and half After that did go to War despite also having problems yes he lost but he still was able to have an army and made someone good moves
This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
@@ferrjuan still Robb had 20000 men and Cregan send 2000 Old men who was on ''im going to Valhalla'' mode
@@stevecavalle well not defending anyone but cregan did arrive after collecting the harvest and settling everything else in his land
He didn't want to disrupt the northern process for an outside war
@@johnstark7873 still Robb '' did not disturbed it '' by only having 20000 men
@@stevecavalle Robb did distrub it as he didnt left enough men to either plough fleet or defend north which resulted in loss of north to greyjoy and boltons rise
Oh, this feels like an old school Preston Video
The title of this video immediately made me think of the Empress Matilda fighting Stephen in Anglo-Norman history. King David of Scotland claimed to fight for Matilda's claim - but in fact just used that as a cover to try and better his own interests in England, conquer territory - and closen his ties with Northumbria. Something to keep in mind if George wrote TDOTD with Matilda and Stephen in mind!
“Sup yo I know like winter has come or whatever but you see my dragon I brought? Wanna come help me fight a bunch of them or be labeled an oath breaker?”
27:15 HE DID IT, HE SAID THE THING
Queue da ting!
But the pact of ice and fire stated that Jacaerys’ first daughter would marry Cregan Stark’s son and heir Rickon. He dies in the first month of 130 ac. So that pact became null and void. Still, Cregan gathered up an army and sent them down to fight knowing he wasn’t getting anything out of the deal anymore. Also, the winter wolves were sent early and the Manderly’s sent knights while Cregan Stark got the whole north ready to fight. I’m sure they were in any hurry to fight dragons. But they still went even though they had already lost everything they were supposed to get out of this war.
They still could have renegotiated that deal for Aegon III or Joffrey
I mean the Lannisters went all in the war and they weren’t going to get anything.
This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
If the north and Vale were skimming they suffered hard as winter fucked them hard leading to the north going into massive debt to the ironbank and the Vale having a civil war
Saying the Winter Wolves were an insignificant number really overlooks how small armies usually were for this time period, at the Battle at Rook's Rest and the Sack of Duskendale the entire Green army commanded by Criston Cole only numbered in the 3000s. At the Battle of the Honeywine they were the majority of the Black forces that we know of, with the Greens only having 8000 men for that battle. At the Butcher's Ball the Greens were less than 3600.
yeah, if the War of the Five Kings is the Wars of the Roses (and he's said it's inspired by that even if it doesn't make too much sense historically), then the Dance of the Dragons is 'The Anarchy'. The largest pitched battle only had about 1000 men on each side.
@@ulture George himself said that the Anarchy is partly what inspired the Dance of the Dragons.
Another thing is that you don't really _want_ large armies in this time period, not if you're fighting the Targaryens with their dragons. You could have an army of a hundred thousand, but going up against one dragon would more than likely leave you with a hundred thousand burnt corpses.
@@ulturePolitically there's a lot of the Anarchy there, sure, but not militarily.
The anarchy came at one of the heights of defensive military developments as opposed to offensive, and a great many barons happily sat out much of the actual fighting in their castles. The fighting being limited to sieges, raids and skirmishes, rather than pitched battles. If you look at conflicts more prone to field battles than the Anarchy, we do see armies numbering up to 10,000 or more.
And then there's the fact that Westeros is drastically larger than England.
It does put into perspective how the current wars in Westeros have so many more people. I can’t remember exact numbers but its not uncommon to see the number 50k being thrown around for army sizes, and that’s in famously sparsely populated regions like the North and Dorne, too!
@@PineappleLiar Yeah, when Robbie marches south, his northern host numbers about 20,000, and several of the stewards of the lands in the North, particularly the far north such as the Umbers, complain about not having enough men to bring in the last harvest.
Love the intro. Up there with The Purple Wedding and Brienne, Gender & the Squishers!
Great video. People need to stop thinking of House Stark as "the house obsessed with honor". Ned was honorable (partly I think because of his upbringing in the Vale mixed with his trauma from the Rebellion). And this is partly what leads to House Stark's downfall. He let his honor stand before his political sense. And he was the exception. From what we've seen, most Stark lords were hardass pragmatists who did what was necessary to preserve the supremacy and survival of their house. Torrhen Stark bent the knee. Alaric played nice with Alysanne. Cregan Stark ensured he got to make the choices at the end of the Dance. And Rickard made in-roads to uniting the Lords Paramount against the madness of Aerys. And that isn't even taking into account all the horrible things the Kings of Winter did to ensure their rule over the North. Just ask all the exiled Blackwoods and the extinct Ambers, Greenwoods, and Frosts.
Yea to me I have a similar bent. I don't conceptualize the North as particularly cruel, but I do see it as different. They're just both isolated and huge, they and Dorne are the two kingdoms most differing from the way things are done in the rest of the kingdoms. People forget that honor isn't the only thing defining the Starks. The southerners in the show talks a lot about how the north is different. It's not actively unruly, but it's kind of a sleeping giant and tends to not care as much about seizing power on the throne. They're fine on their own in the North, thankyouverymuch. This aspect was even reflected in honorable Ned. He could have de facto taken the throne but didn't even care for it. And Jon Snow while technically being Targaryen was very much raised northern, and the "I don't want it" line, even if infamously bad, still embodies this. The north wasn't separatist, but they only really ever care about their own people and region, and didn't want to take the throne.
Rambleramble but I think the point is clear
I mean to be fair, the Blacks also didn't honor agreements. The Starks were promised a Targaeryen princess but received none. Also, the North is huge so it makes sense why it took a while to rally. Finally, it wasn't just the North that were dragging. The Vale was as well, and it's not surprising since the Dance was an incredibly messy affair, and many lords didn't want to make a mistake that would end in a dragonfire bath.
The North is huge and that’s why Robb managed to get his shit together in a few months instead of 2 years.
@fel_zharost It was different circumstances. The North was (almost) universally onboard with the fight, until Robb did made a few goofs. That clearly wasn't the case for the Dance
@@mixkid3362 there were few weeks maximum between Ned asking Catelyn to order his subjects start basic preparations like to strengthen Moat Cailin and Robb calling his banners.
@@fel_zharostIt was summertime when Robb called his banners and the harvest was already in.
Also Robb only called up a fraction of his northmen and they were almost entirely mounted.
Try again.
@@gerardjagroo you know that harvest season takes about 2 months, right?
I just started watching this video but - as someone who's been watching your content for quite a while - I have to point out that that intro was your best one yet. So lovely!
This is the kind of content I subscribe for. Amazing, glad these kinds of videos are back
I love your theory videos like this ! This truly made my day ! Old school Preston vid 🙏🏾🔥
So great to get a new full-length, books-only analysis like your old videos! And a great one at that, like always :)
Glad that you're making theory videos again!
I have to take an hour ride, and you’re right on time with this one, Good Ser.
lucky hes not Stark, or hed still be just starting his first draft
At last the kind of video series we want from you, Preston, love you 🙏
I think most of this can be put down to the Dance being poorly written, with the excuse that the northmen were too busy stockpiling food for the winter only going so far to cover GRRM's ass. In any event, I doubt Cregan Stark is some conniving, self-interested guy, given that he is almost as much of an an author's pet as Daemon and Corlys. Also, GRRM probably wanted the northmen out of the way because he thinks Rhaenyra would have easily won the war with a Northern army.
15:42 The Winter Wolves were some of Team Black's most valuable assets, given that at First Tumbleton, they basically cause the Greens to lose the whole war by taking out Lord Hightower:
"Roddy the Ruin and his Winter Wolves sallied forth from a postern gate, screaming their terrifying northern war cries as they swept around the left flank of the attackers. In the chaos that ensued, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐦𝐞𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐋𝐨𝐫𝐝 𝐎𝐫𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐬𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐧’𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐎𝐥𝐝𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫.
As the singers tell it, Lord Roderick was bloody from head to heel as he came on, with splintered shield and cracked helm, yet so drunk with battle that he did not even seem to feel his wounds. Ser Bryndon Hightower, Lord Ormund’s cousin, put himself between the northman and his liege, taking off the Ruin’s shield arm at the shoulder with one terrible blow of his longaxe…yet the savage Lord of Barrowton fought on, slaying both Ser Bryndon and Lord Ormund before he died. Lord Hightower’s banners toppled, and the townsfolk gave a great cheer"
(The Dying of the Dragons: Rhaenyra Triumphant)
"the death of Lord Ormund Hightower had left them without a leader, and the lords who wished to command in his place were at odds with one another."
(The Dying of the Dragons: Rhaenyra Overthrown)
600 old northmen fighting through some 6000 reachers to kill the Lord of Oldtown shows that GRRM really loves the North and thinks that its people are so beyond badass that southerners can't hope to match them in battle, given that the North dealt the Greens one of their greatest blows by sending raggedy old men.
Doesn’t excuse the vale dragging their feet
Man got his army cut off by his two opponents then somehow went on to kill them both, George wasn’t being serious when he wrote the Dance.
So really we should give D&D a break with the teleporting around Westeros in Got. It matters not whether you are right or wrong because GRRM doesn't even know his timelines. The only thing we do know is that the Starks have very shady past, as does every major house. Some of the hopeful lesser houses manage to hang in there, some manage to rise a little bit, many more die and fade into legends. Time is fluid in this world and if it makes little sense in the book, then HOTD just has to make the best of a conveniently obtuse written book.
Well, I question if this shows the starks to be shady. They are a northern house, and don't care that much about which Targaryen rules them. They were forced against their will to kneel to the King in the first place during Aegons Conquest. They are forced again by threat of dragons to partkae in a war that would kill thousands of innocent northmen. Their procrastination saved thousands of lives.
This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
Fresh non podcast preston. hallelujah
Finally a new theory video!
LETSGO PJ theory video!!!
What’s this a new series!?! Legendary
Unless I am wrong winter was either already hitting the north or was about to hit, which is why Dustin rode down with essentially his old volunteers that otherwise would be stuck home
Cregan was able to mobilize fine near the end of the war and that was the dead of winter.
@@PrestonJacobstheSweetrobin I think that the reason for. The delay at the beginning of winter is to make sure they have ample supplies when winter comes around
@@PrestonJacobstheSweetrobin This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
In the Norths and Vale's defense it was autumn and winter was fast approaching so they had to prepare for it
See how in the main story the North and Riverlands are suffering from a lack of food with winter fast approaching.....
This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
Preston is talking bull. He must have been high when he cooked up this nonsense.
Also even if Lord Stark purposefully delayed can you blame him? He has to look after the interests and welfare of his own people.
Rushing his people south to be bathed in dragonflame is the very opposite of his duty.
omg, a preston video about a theory that isn't a stream. hype!
a random preston jacobs video in my timeline? hell yeah!
i ve missed those asoiaf theories! good job!
Didn't the Starks basically say they had to have time to bring in a harvest and try to plant another one before winter or else the north would starve?
Yeah they did. Still they only needed to send a couple more thousand.
Let the peasants starve just get the soldiers downs south ASAP to fight in Rhaenyra's futile war!!!
That seems to be Preston's attitude here. It's ridiculous
As a Lord, Cregan has a duty to protect his people, administer justice to them and to seek after their welfare.
None of this involves rushing them south to be bathed in dragonflame.
@@gerardjagroo I agree, I'm a massive Preston fan- he's big reason why I love ASOIAF so much, this is the first thing I've seriously disagreed with.
@@gerardjagroo true but they fully mobilized after most of the war was done. Fact is the starks sat on their asses longer than they had too. Compare that to the brave Lannisters who fought from the beginning all in. Even their lands got attacked by the ironborn and they still fought in the war
@@alexanderguerrero347 It just shows that Cregan was more wily and prudent than the Lannisters of that epoch.
Racing south to get cremated by dragonflame is just dumb
I agree that the Starks clearly had plans for after the Dance, the hour of the wolf was a mass execution of the previous regime. Though you forgot that the Stark specifically said they needed to bring in the harvest before mobilizing en masse. Did they delay totally, but not for two whole years.
What I forgot to mention was the Cregan is lying about the harvest. They are half a year into winter with snows on the ground. There's no crops. In fact the snows were heavy when the Pact was made in autumn.
This is excellent. In research, reasoning, and then a very clean presentation.
The Reach was split in half between the Greens and the Blacks.
Aemond took the fighting to Harrenhall and the Riverlands.
All the others, why would they join? Because they gave their word under veiled threats? "Join me or I'll burn you down"
Cregan was based and redpilled! 😂
Rhaenyra should've made royal progresses around the realm while she lived at dragonstone and had her sons fostered in other kingdoms like the vale and the north or wherever else that way she would've had allies already in her pocket instead of sending her sons out after her father died.
Finally we have returned to true Prestoros
Great video Preston!
Preston and DLB are simply the best around. Thanks for putting this content out.
What a good day to see a new preaton video! And i just finnish firw and blood
I’ll be honest this is the most believable over your last bunch of videos, but still enjoy hearing your theories :)
Good stuff! Keep the videos coming
I never understood that about the north.
If during peace time and winter comes, the old just leave to go die in the snow. Why not just join the watch? It’s better then just going to die
Glad to see a video like this again.
ngl I needed this in this cycle thx
Sounds like the Northerners filled the Kimdissi role during the Dance
I’m genuinely thrilled about this timeline breakdown
Question is, do HOTD/HBO have the guts to portray the Starks this way?
Considering they have the guts to change the entire story maybe
After all now rhaenyra takes kingslanding before the battle of the gullet
Your video got quoted a couple times on this forum I'm active on, Space Battles. Including by me if I'm being honest. And someone (username: Elder Haman) posted a pretty good rebuttal to this video. So I'm just going to copy past it below:
That's one fan's very biased view of the whole thing. The more reasonable interpretation is that Rhaenyra called for supporters in early autumn, and thus the North sent their old men south as a vanguard (and under their best general Roddy the Ruin who was one of Cregan's mentors so hardly holding back there), while the rest of the North spent the next year harvesting like mad for the coming winter. Then once the harvest was in he called his banners, which takes another half a year to gather (remember the size of the North, and now you are dealing with winter snows blocking the roads), and then he marched south (which takes another half a year).
It's not a case of Cregan being deceitful and deliberately late. It's that he has deal with winter and if he didn't have a harvest his smallfolk would starve to death. They ended up starving anyway because of how long the winter was, and because with Corlys dead, the other Southern Lords (mainly Greens in the Reach and West) decided to screw over the North and not sell them food.
Furthermore, I have to object to specifics of the video. They claim that the Freys managed to move so quickly to aid the Blacks, yes, that's because they have a river to use for transport, and the Freys were already solid Blacks, no need for more than a raven to get them to start gathering (remember Lord Frey and the Fool Frey are the same man) - which the video even notes, but then seems to think the Vale can respond as quickly which is nonsense from looking at the map. Just because the distance is the same does not mean the travel time is the same. The Freys had a river, and were travelling through friendly and densely populated territory (so not as much need for a logistics train), and gathered forces from lands adjoining the Twins. The Vale has to gather men over five to six times as much territory, which is all mountains, and then has to march through a hostile mountain pass in autumn (since the Mountain Clans are even stronger at this point in time) to get to Harrenhall. It's not surprising that in canon the Vale instead sent knights to Kings Landing by boat.
He also places the dates too early. As Jace returns half a year before his birthday at the end of the year, we can put the Stark alliance as having been secured sometime in late May, early June, which is probably the same time as the battle of Burning Mill. Which is in the wider timeline he suggests, but he suggests it probably happened in April (and later uses that to estimate the time Cregan took), which is nonsense. He then claims that with Rook's Rest around November, that the Starks are gathering men and that this is horribly late. It is not. That's five months in middle of harvest. Robb requires three months at least at the end of summer, with better roads, better weather, and he doesn't gather all his forces, just what could be gathered swiftly. According to his standards, Robb was late even though he was marching to save his father and sisters. This is just a case of someone who doesn't understand the distance involved, or the way harvests interact with available men for war.
The real lack of support was the lack of ships from Gulltown and White Harbour to support closing the Gullet. Though we are told that such was offered but that Corlys proudly said he didn't need more ships - this is because the Triarchy joing the war caught all the Blacks by surprise. They thought that the Greens wouldn't invite foreigners (slavers!) into the war.
The videos continues to make these claims, such as it taking a month to ride from Winterfell to the Twins, when it took Robert Braratheon "months" to travel from Winterfell to King's Landing (with the implication being around 4 to 5 months), which is twice the distance, but the part between the Twins and Winterfell is much worse in how narrow the road is and the surrounding terrain. It's more reasonable to think it would take about three months. In other words, they left Winterfell right around the time news arrived that they were gathering forces at Winterfell (which makes sense, they probably sent word right before they left Winterfell).
He then compares the size of the Winter Wolves to the Size of Robb's host, again disregarding the different circumstances and times. For one thing, Robb is 170 years later, and they just had a ten year long summer, which means that the North would have a much larger population than normal (and in fact the numbers raised by the various regions in Dance are significantly less than those raised by those same regions in the War of the Five Kings). He then mentions they participated in the Fishfeed, but fails to mention how utterly vital to the victory that those Winter Wolves were. Roderick Dustin was also important in the Butcher's Ball as well. They were not merely a symbolic force as the videos implies, but were massively important to the Black victories.
He even then points out that winter had not yet fully arrived until Maiden's Day in 130 AC. Of course only then will Cregan be able to gather the men who had been harvesting food until that time and send them south. So you'd expect at least another six to eight months before the next wave of Northmen arrive. (More forces, worse weather, on foot, longer times marching, etc). The exception being those that go by boat - and guess what? That's when the first Manderly forces arrive. (I'll also point out that the Vale also has to deal with harvests, their winters aren't as bad as the North, but they are much worse than anywhere else in the South).
I will grant that more men in Kings Landing would have helped against the smallfolk riots, but that was an unexpected event. It's hard to express how utterly astonished everyone must have been that smallfolk ended up killing five dragons, without even a lordly commander. No doubt everyone (including Rhaenyra) thought that reinforcements were needed more elsewhere (primarily at Tumbleton to invade the Reach).
Furthermore the videos never asks the question: If Cregan was playing Rhaenyra false, then why send more forces at all after her death? There was no more Jace to provide a daughter for his son, nor a Joffery to marry a Manderly. Why not sue for peace? Why not accept the peace deal worked out by Corlys?
The person that actually played the Dance deceitfully was Lord Baratheon. Who called his banners, supposedly to fight for Aegon, but instead marched south to fight the Dornish, and only marched on the capital after Rhaenyra fled. I actually suspect that he might have had a secret arrangement with Rhaenyra to not fight her, since she seemed unthreatened by him and sent no forces to deal with him during her entire time in Kings Landing. She even denied Daemon when he suggested attacking Storms End.
The whole video basically assumes that the North and Vale ought to have acted a certain way (ignoring all sorts of logistical realities that made that near impossible) and then declares them "without honor" for not acting the way he thinks they ought. He depends on the flashy and controversial claim to carry the day, and make people think he's so clever at seeing the "truth" behind the historical propaganda, but when you think about things a bit more it all falls apart. For one thing Viserys II seemed to count the North as a friend, and he had a good head on his shoulders, so I think he would have known if there really was something nefarious to how the North acted. Instead it's much simpler and likely that distance, logistics, and weather hampered Northern forces from arriving sooner. Perhaps Creagan could have shown a little less caution, and sent smaller numbers of forces as reinforcements to Roderick in drips and dribbles instead of massing a second force, but hindsight is 20/20. There are surely historical examples of a leader doing that and it resulting in defeat in detail.
Did Cregan fight in Daeron I's Dornish War? He fought Aemon the Dragonknight at some point, so either Aemon went north, or Cregan went south at some point... If he did fight in the war, would love to hear how Daeron and his Hand Viserys dragonlessly convinced him to join to contribute in a timely manner...
Yaaay, an in depth theory video, I've missed these, don't get me wrong I love the fanfiction vids but I find the podcast type episodes a bit dull (no offence intended, they're just not to my taste)
Holy shit. An old school Preston video, love it!
YOOOO NEW THEORY VIDEO??? This is a pleasant surprise
This is why i kept rolling my eyes at people getting excited at Stark casting in HOTD.
Starks DO NOTHING in Dance of Dragons. Roderick Dustin DOES -- but he is not even cast.
the loremaster returns!
love this form of your videos
He was prepping for winter and his vassals was far apart
That doesn’t excuse the vale.
@@alexanderguerrero347 the vale had civil war at time didn’t they? Arryn uncle
And they sheltered her
This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
I miss these detailed breakdowns!
I miss your catchphrase, and am glad it's back.
What? I randomly look up "Preston Jacobs" and here's a video released 10 minutes ago
I was meant to pick up my kid from daycare but just seen Preston Jacobs uploaded. He can wait a little longer.
Cregan was meant to marshal his banners and march south for Rhaenyra but just seen Preston Jacobs uploaded. She can wait a little longer.
Thing is, those Winter Wolves were momentously clutch at the First Battle of Tumbleton. Wasn't it two Lords Hightower and Criston Cole they ganked? Almost as efficient as some Faceless Men.
Winter Wolves were pure plot armour for Team Black, no reason they performed as well as they did. The Dustin killed the leadership of the army with one arm freshly cut off in a 2 vs. 1, causing the army to get disordered. To restate, it’s two vs. One; he gets his arm cut off against a lord and a knight, one equipped with Valyrian steel. Despite the lead, he somehow managers to kill both when he should’ve been dead in 20 seconds tops.
When will you do a breakdown of Varys and Illiryio's plans with Aegon and link to the blackfyre faction/Golden Company?
finally a theory video
How is it possible that I missed this video ??
Would be fun if this actually ends up being confirmed and turning out plot relevant to ASOIAF. I am kinda fond of theories about the Wild Walkers awakening as a result of Harrenhal or some unknown mess tied to the extinction of the Dragons or some particular Targ law. So I'd like it if it turns out that it could have been avoided had it not been for Cregan being particularly dishonorable. Could be fun it it also tied somewhat to Rickard's Southron ambitions as a compound in some form.
2024 preston back making theories ?!?!?! Fuck yesss okay 2024 is cooking
Being that the starks are such fan favourites of the show, I think hotd season 2 will have them play a larger role than they did in the books, hell they'll peobably be in every battle.
However I disagree that the winter wolves were an insignificant force. The old men of the north were battle and winter hardened men, not like the old men of the south who lived like country lords or just lazy c*nts. The winter wolves also wanted glorious deaths, making them extremely difficult if not impossible to break in combat. If an army of 5000 lost half, they'd likely break. The winter wolves would likely fight till the last man.
Good morning fellow tin foils
PJ should make some merch, like tin foil looking beanies, toques and baseball caps 😂
Great video Preston thank you for keeping the flame alive in the wait for TWOW.... which I am becoming convinced will never happen
One aspect that is always in the back of my head, when army sizes are brought up during the Dance of the Dragons. ALL armies during this conflict are smaller than during ASOIAF. Yes, 10K northmen (plus 2000 Winter Wolves) seem small compared to the 18k from Robb. But other armies in the dance are considerably smaller too. Borros Baratheon provides less than 5000 men when he joins the war. The Lannister army is only between 8-10k strong, compared to max. 50k strong during ASOIAF. And while you could argue that those low numbers are all caused by the nearing winter or maybe houses that held back parts of their strength (or even innacuarcies by GRRM), I think there is a way more reasonable explanation: Westeros had just a lower population back then. In my opinion, that makes totally sense. Between the Dance and the main storyline, roughly 270 years pass, and the population of Westeros simply grew during that time
Also, dragons. If you go up against anyone with dragon riders who knows how to fight with their dragons, it doesn't matter how large of an army you field. Aegon proved that repeatedly during the Conquest.
This seems key for the Southron Ambitions
Lord Preston, when are we getting a new Winds chapter?
I miss these theory videos 😊
Oh gosh! Another series? Wrong about half, none, or all, this is amazing!
One nitpick I might make is that just because the Manderly's losses are noted in number of knights lost, does not outright mean they *only* sent knights.
Cregan was late probably because he was prepping for winter first and since the north is so damn huge it does take a while to get all those troops together