Great interview, mr. Oakley - and excellent choice of guest. Luke Gromen is brilliant and always a good watch. Have now subscribed to your channel. Looking forward to more from you!
Excellent Mr. Oakley. I have watched you being interviewed several times and was very impressed by your measured ,wise musings. That was an excellent interview and Mr. Groman distinguished himself ; we leave this interview preoccupied and wiser. Thank you, Dr. Timothy O' Herlihy.
Great interview of Luke Gromen, Mr. Oakley! He explains the complex in ways everyday people can understand. Thanks for asking such germaine questions, and showing the graphs!
The US has way more debt now. In the 70’s, the US was a creditor nation, had a trade surplus, had manufacturing capacity and you could support a family with 1 income. Government was only about 8% of the economy and is now over 40%. Not the same America as in the 1970’s
there has been a lot of "very valuable" information over the past 3 years.. Even longer. And if you wait 1 week, people will be talking about something else. Even just 2 years ago, they said "the latter half of this year, that is when we expect to see it".. Then they said, ummm maybe next year.... Then they said maybe the latter half of next year. And actually, I remember hearing Henry Blodget and Aaron Task discuss inflation vs. deflation way back in 2013-2015?? They were discussing "ripping the bandaid off and taking the pain now, rather than later".. That was 10 years ago! haha
The most important part of this conversation was the recognition that the petrodollar died and its now gold for oil. This is THE significant factor of our time as it relates to economics. And it isnt juat gold for oil, but for all commodities.
Great interview! We have the same problem in Canada. Over the last 16 years, the purchasing power of our dollar has declined at an annual rate of 7.8% vs Gold. Too much debt.
I cannot believe the patients I have developed after over a decade being in the PMs markets. I have ridden gold since $1,200 and the white metal from $12 bucks. All or most of my buddies are out now and they told me why, they got scared of the manipulation and couldn't hold on. Some regret it now especially after the $2,400 break out. I'm also a student of buying the dips noting the Oracle of Omaha "buy when there's blood in the streets!" After 12 or 14 years it's been actually really working. But my god fellas Silver a a scary ride it's like driving through Mosul or Baghdad in a soft skin vehicle.
Forty minutes without talking about the cause of the problem: reckless fiscal deficit spending by Congress. 😱 Even President Jimmy Carter recognised that we need to shrink the size of government. 🤔 Newt Gingrich achieved a budget surplus by persuading Congress to limit spending. ☮️
Maybe the buyer of the long bond is the passive flow from people’s 401k when they choose the long time frame value fund. They have no clue what that means.
After 40 years of declining interest rates, it's hard to adjust to the new reality of higher for longer not just because of the Fed but because of market forces that are saying enough already. The future looks challenging to say the least
Now ask yourself, what portion of the house price rises, over the last thirty years, is due to lower interest rates (rather than demographics or simple inflation). Could be as much as 40%
Fed will be a huge buyer of UST. Inflationary? Perhaps, but this is really an issue of Federal deficits and the contribution to "GDP". Take away federal deficits, or reduce them, and our economy is disinflationary and troubled. Enjoyed the interview.
He was hinting at (but obviously didn't want to discuss) the fact that the level of deaths per 100,000 population has picked up by 5 to 20% since 2020 (when, in fact it should have dropped immediately after the wave of covid deaths). No one knows whether the run rate is going to drop back to historical norms or continue to increase but it might, conceivably, have a big impact on entitlements.
How about no bailouts (yeah, you read it right “no bailouts”) just let the chips fall where they may. Which kinda reminds me of this thing they used to have, it was called “capitalism”. You’d have to find it in the history books or on the way back machine - because I don’t think it’s a thing anymore.
FED has never got an economic call correct. It will be unemployment, when it arrives and tax receipts decline we should be worried. Then benefit costs increase and fiscal chaos starts. The deficit will ballon and national debt rapidly increase. Not enough tax to cover debt interest payments will ensure.
The US treasury has a lot of gold on its books priced at about $42/oz. If they used current gold Prices, I suspect they would not be broke. Any comments on this Ted/Luke?
I saw the pull back coming, made an order request prior to pulling the trigger, my local JM Bullion dealer had 20 ounces of American Eagle, so Monday I picked up 10 and Tuesday I picked up another 10 for my buddy. Good $50,000 spent. I have some green set aside for gold and silver purchased at every pull back riding this bull and staying on its back way past 7 seconds! Today I'm ready for 2 Maple monster boxes on sale at SD Bullion. I'm not paying the god damn America Eagle premiums.
@@issenvan1050 Is this one of those games where I do your research for you and you just pepper more questions at me? I'll pass. Just buy gold. Gold is good too.
If we try to pay off the debt with inflated dollars then we will follow the path of many other countries. Inflation will skyrocket here and wages will not even come close to keeping up with it. It will plunge most people into serious poverty. Take the Philippines for instance. I have a coin that says one US Dollar on one side, and one Philippine Peso on the other side when it was minted. Then came reckless corruption and unsustainable printing and spending in the Philippines. Now it takes 55 Pesos to buy one US Dollar. I don't pretend to know if the dollar can devalue that badly, but if it did we would be paying here in Texas around $150 for a loaf of bread and around $15 million for an average home, and it can happen QUICKLY. Venezuela went from being the most prosperous country in South America to the poorest in 14 years. The unsustainable paths that the US is hurtling down right now should be front page news on every newspaper. Instead we get coverup and comforting lies to the American people deflecting their realization of GROSS mismanagement of the US on many fronts for a very long time now.
There are two ways they can "inflate" it away... have high inflation and gdp over a number of years so the debt looks relatively smaller over time - or just print the money and pay everyone back. The government hasn't had to resort to that yet, which means things are still relatively under control and a lot of the sky-is-falling retheric is grossly premature
None of this or a popping of the markets until after the election They will by any means keep the status quo until then After election all bets are off People have until then to prepare Interest rate drop just prior to election so Politicians can sell a coming boom As a Nation we are Broke & need to pay for our Politicians running up insane debt on us Get Gold for sure if your able Our own slackness letting our Politicians put us in this position will cause Huge pain after elections
i would be curious as to where the 400 million ounce silver deficit will come from. hello? anybody? the silver tree is bare guyz........... this is not as important as elections in november i understand
I think it’s hilarious that so many people think Gromen is so brilliant. He’s a clown. Bring on Art Laffer if you want someone who actually understands economics.
lol. Schiff ate him alive a decade ago. Laffer is a joke. Never saw '08 called it all wrong the whole time. Geez. Monday morning quarter back all the way.
Luke is so obsessed with US debt that he cant see the trees for the forest. He needs to also look beyond the border if he wants to understand the world.
With the US as the world’s largest economy and being the world’s reserve currency, there is a reason to concentrate many of your thesis from the US. I completely understand that there is a whole world out there and this affects the whole world. I don’t think Luke is myopic on the US, I think he understands the big picture.
Great interview, mr. Oakley - and excellent choice of guest. Luke Gromen is brilliant and always a good watch. Have now subscribed to your channel. Looking forward to more from you!
Excellent Mr. Oakley. I have watched you being interviewed several times and was very impressed by your measured ,wise musings. That was an excellent interview and Mr. Groman distinguished himself ; we leave this interview preoccupied and wiser. Thank you, Dr. Timothy O' Herlihy.
Excellent interview!
Great interview of Luke Gromen, Mr. Oakley! He explains the complex in ways everyday people can understand. Thanks for asking such germaine questions, and showing the graphs!
Well done gentleman. Thanks Oxbow
Thanks Ted! Great interview with a really knowledgeable man.
He is the best :-)
Great guest, thanks again!
The US has way more debt now. In the 70’s, the US was a creditor nation, had a trade surplus, had manufacturing capacity and you could support a family with 1 income. Government was only about 8% of the economy and is now over 40%. Not the same America as in the 1970’s
Very interesting interview!
Great job as always. Very much appreciate your work.
Option 4: Falsify the numbers and proceed with confidence by redefining the meaning of former truisms.
Half a percentage point here and there isn't anything in the grand scheme of things when we're talking tipping points of civilizations.
Thank ted and Luke
Thanks Ted!
Thank you Ted I’m a dedicated listener or in other parlance a dedicated follower …
These interviews are becoming one of my favorites.
This was so enjoyable. Been following luke for 3 years now, im picking up what hes putting down. Thank you ted
LG was brilliant, thanks.
Very helpful interview Ted
Very valuable information. Anytime you can have experts do a long talk like this one, the more I understand economics in a current environment
there has been a lot of "very valuable" information over the past 3 years.. Even longer. And if you wait 1 week, people will be talking about something else. Even just 2 years ago, they said "the latter half of this year, that is when we expect to see it".. Then they said, ummm maybe next year.... Then they said maybe the latter half of next year. And actually, I remember hearing Henry Blodget and Aaron Task discuss inflation vs. deflation way back in 2013-2015?? They were discussing "ripping the bandaid off and taking the pain now, rather than later".. That was 10 years ago! haha
Yeaaaah, finally Luke has a better mic 😮. Congratulations 👏🏽🎉
Excellent. Thank you.
The most important part of this conversation was the recognition that the petrodollar died and its now gold for oil. This is THE significant factor of our time as it relates to economics. And it isnt juat gold for oil, but for all commodities.
Good interview.
Thank you very much...
Great interview! We have the same problem in Canada. Over the last 16 years, the purchasing power of our dollar has declined at an annual rate of 7.8% vs Gold. Too much debt.
I cannot believe the patients I have developed after over a decade being in the PMs markets. I have ridden gold since $1,200 and the white metal from $12 bucks. All or most of my buddies are out now and they told me why, they got scared of the manipulation and couldn't hold on. Some regret it now especially after the $2,400 break out. I'm also a student of buying the dips noting the Oracle of Omaha "buy when there's blood in the streets!" After 12 or 14 years it's been actually really working. But my god fellas Silver a a scary ride it's like driving through Mosul or Baghdad in a soft skin vehicle.
Forty minutes without talking about the cause of the problem: reckless fiscal deficit spending by Congress. 😱
Even President Jimmy Carter recognised that we need to shrink the size of government. 🤔
Newt Gingrich achieved a budget surplus by persuading Congress to limit spending. ☮️
Luke mentions it pretty explicitly.
Love Luke.
Who were the US sovereign bond holders 1940-1950?
Yes, the price of getting oil out of the ground is more expensive. But how much of that is inflation itself?
Maybe the buyer of the long bond is the passive flow from people’s 401k when they choose the long time frame value fund. They have no clue what that means.
After 40 years of declining interest rates, it's hard to adjust to the new reality of higher for longer not just because of the Fed but because of market forces that are saying enough already. The future looks challenging to say the least
Now ask yourself, what portion of the house price rises, over the last thirty years, is due to lower interest rates (rather than demographics or simple inflation). Could be as much as 40%
Fed will be a huge buyer of UST. Inflationary? Perhaps, but this is really an issue of Federal deficits and the contribution to "GDP". Take away federal deficits, or reduce them, and our economy is disinflationary and troubled. Enjoyed the interview.
Production growth or contraction, is different than money supply growth or contraction.
What happens to the value of a 10 year bond when the yield goes from 5% to 1% ??? Why would it go to 1%?? GFC/COVID/WAR/BANKING CRISIS...
No mention what stealing russian reserves will do to foreign bond reserve buyers. Will this destroy all trust in holding such reserves with the usa?
Good question
At the minimum, he has to accelerate the move out of UST's.
I'd like Luke and Doomberg to discuss peak cheap oil.
"if the baby boomers die off in large numbers".............think you tangentially touched on some truth there, bro
Yes. Get them to sign up for Medicare Advantage and then deny care, refuse payment to doctors and hospitals.
He was hinting at (but obviously didn't want to discuss) the fact that the level of deaths per 100,000 population has picked up by 5 to 20% since 2020 (when, in fact it should have dropped immediately after the wave of covid deaths). No one knows whether the run rate is going to drop back to historical norms or continue to increase but it might, conceivably, have a big impact on entitlements.
How about no bailouts (yeah, you read it right “no bailouts”) just let the chips fall where they may. Which kinda reminds me of this thing they used to have, it was called “capitalism”.
You’d have to find it in the history books or on the way back machine - because I don’t think it’s a thing anymore.
Do you consider paying entitlements as a bailout?
@@stephenburnage7687 - Interest on Treasurys is an 'entitlement' Is paying interest a bailout?
FED has never got an economic call correct. It will be unemployment, when it arrives and tax receipts decline we should be worried. Then benefit costs increase and fiscal chaos starts. The deficit will ballon and national debt rapidly increase. Not enough tax to cover debt interest payments will ensure.
The US treasury has a lot of gold on its books priced at about $42/oz. If they used current gold
Prices, I suspect they would not be broke. Any comments on this Ted/Luke?
When Jacob Fuger said 25% cash, would short term treasury bills qualify?
I think that is the general view
"It hasn't been a problem yet." Hmmmm I would say that inflation is ALWAYS a problem.
You think that was a problem. Hold my beer.
Luke!!!
How much money does Oxbow bring in from embedded ads on TH-cam?
I made a million from 10K trading dog coin using x10 leverage, so whats your excuse? Coward trader.
I saw the pull back coming, made an order request prior to pulling the trigger, my local JM Bullion dealer had 20 ounces of American Eagle, so Monday I picked up 10 and Tuesday I picked up another 10 for my buddy. Good $50,000 spent. I have some green set aside for gold and silver purchased at every pull back riding this bull and staying on its back way past 7 seconds! Today I'm ready for 2 Maple monster boxes on sale at SD Bullion. I'm not paying the god damn America Eagle premiums.
Treasury yields do follow inflation rather than a supply-demand dynamics!
How is BTC a “real/hard asset?”
Fixed supply enforced by the most powerful decentralized network in the world
@@soundsnags2001 What is hard about it? & how many Satoshis are there?
@@issenvan1050 Is this one of those games where I do your research for you and you just pepper more questions at me? I'll pass. Just buy gold. Gold is good too.
If we try to pay off the debt with inflated dollars then we will follow the path of many other countries. Inflation will skyrocket here and wages will not even come close to keeping up with it. It will plunge most people into serious poverty. Take the Philippines for instance. I have a coin that says one US Dollar on one side, and one Philippine Peso on the other side when it was minted. Then came reckless corruption and unsustainable printing and spending in the Philippines. Now it takes 55 Pesos to buy one US Dollar. I don't pretend to know if the dollar can devalue that badly, but if it did we would be paying here in Texas around $150 for a loaf of bread and around $15 million for an average home, and it can happen QUICKLY. Venezuela went from being the most prosperous country in South America to the poorest in 14 years. The unsustainable paths that the US is hurtling down right now should be front page news on every newspaper. Instead we get coverup and comforting lies to the American people deflecting their realization of GROSS mismanagement of the US on many fronts for a very long time now.
Same with Argentina
Are you people that comment about debt not being a problem,I am waiting for your responses when your taxes double to pay that debt.
There are two ways they can "inflate" it away... have high inflation and gdp over a number of years so the debt looks relatively smaller over time - or just print the money and pay everyone back. The government hasn't had to resort to that yet, which means things are still relatively under control and a lot of the sky-is-falling retheric is grossly premature
Luke has repeatedly said that the alternative approach is to significantly lower the value of the dollar.
I'm a babyboomer and I'm not volunteering.
You don't have to volunteer. It won't be your choice.
I might add that your replacements are already here and more cross the border every day.
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
None of this or a popping of the markets until after the election
They will by any means keep the status quo until then
After election all bets are off
People have until then to prepare
Interest rate drop just prior to election so Politicians can sell a coming boom
As a Nation we are Broke & need to pay for our Politicians running up insane debt on us Get Gold for sure if your able
Our own slackness letting our Politicians put us in this position will cause Huge pain after elections
I hear no discussion of the most important thing: money supply!
Don't hold too much cash these days
Looks like Ron Paul was right and everyone else was wrong.
18:01 Isn't that what Covid was trying to actually do?
🍬🍬🍬🍬🍬🍬Ethel 🙂
Fed will hold all treasuries, your plumber arrives with a whellbarrel and you fill it.
top
i would be curious as to where the 400 million ounce silver deficit will come from. hello? anybody? the silver tree is bare guyz........... this is not as important as elections in november i understand
After.the.horse have.left the.stable.no.stopping.until the end.of.the.begining 😢😢😢
I think it’s hilarious that so many people think Gromen is so brilliant. He’s a clown. Bring on Art Laffer if you want someone who actually understands economics.
lol. Schiff ate him alive a decade ago. Laffer is a joke. Never saw '08 called it all wrong the whole time. Geez. Monday morning quarter back all the way.
Luke is a bitcoin pumper and thinks bitcoin is the same as gold. Lol
Ted "useless eaters "not a new idea in full bloom in the desert
Luke is so obsessed with US debt that he cant see the trees for the forest. He needs to also look beyond the border if he wants to understand the world.
With the US as the world’s largest economy and being the world’s reserve currency, there is a reason to concentrate many of your thesis from the US. I completely understand that there is a whole world out there and this affects the whole world. I don’t think Luke is myopic on the US, I think he understands the big picture.
Europa Union has a huge debt and are dependent on foreign energy :-)
That's an unfair criticism I believe.
Europe is a massive mess. Terrible leadership.
Luke's been right on for years now
Luke's commentary is virtually useless
Thanks again Ted.