Remote work is not actually "remote" cause while you work for american company (Google, Fb, etc) the company will be asked by the state where the employee spends his money aka paying consumer's taxes. Because if they pay you Fed bills they want to make sure you spend 100% of these bills in the USA jurisdiction.
Hey Michael, love your videos and the information but I especially like the fact that you don't punish us everytime with an intro or any sh*tty music. You get right into it and don't waste any time. Thanks and have a good one!!
The Great Unwinding is just starting. We've added 23 trillion dollars to the national debt since the last crash in 2008, driving up all asset prices. If you don't have to make big purchases, don't. Stay in cash at 4.5% interest and let the dust settle.
One of the reasons I became a firefighter paramedic is job security. Even in hard economic times I know I won’t get canned. Not to mention the practical medical skills and survival skills we learn, train and use in real world high stress situations. I see SHTF for people routinely.
I knew a firefighter who almost got laid off a few years ago. They were trying to reduce the amount of firehouses to half. I personally don’t believe any job is safe. They laying off Truck drivers and I never thought they’d be laid off. Some are more safer but it’s not immune. Definitely great career with good skills.
@@trainsandlocomotives well considering my department is small and we already short staffed I seriously doubt we’ll be laying off personnel. Yea people like to always say no job is safe but my job is way safer than a lot of others that’s for sure. And my department is well funded via local tax which the citizens voted for and our city council learned from the 2007-08 crash that it’s a good idea to have a rainy day fund which we do and it’s very well funded to keep Us operating for our citizens boom or bust. Misery loves company so people always like to say no job is safe. Nothing in life is impossible but in reality we do t think in terms of possible or impossible, we think in terms of probable vs improbable.
The best investment one can do right now is investing on Forex trading though stocks are good but ever since I swapped to Forex, I've seen so much difference.
My advisor is ROCH DUNGCA-SCHREIBER highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Even if rates go down or stay lower, credit is drying up and the only people getting mortgages will be those with lots of assets and a great credit score. Banks and other lenders are becoming more and more apprehensive writing mortgages.
Except for first time homebuyers. FHA will back stop these loans. Every lender will be turning to first time homebuyers. Which will make prices go up, and at worst keep them elevated. But yes credit is drying up for the mid tier folk, especially in commercial
""If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency first by inflation then by deflation the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered" - Thomas Jefferson
Many people are in denial.expecring a housing crash. Here in South Carolina, stores are packed and builders are still building like mad and they are selling everything they are building.
@@rdean150 I am guessing aot of retired people from out of state. As they build they sell them. In Sage Creek which is a huge development , they been building for years and the HOA told me they will be building for several more years. Mostly everybody works where I live with families. I am retired single guy, just chilling. Looking to sell next year and then build on acreage nearby. The houses aren't vacant...
I am 58 and in the 1980s interest rates on savings was 6 to 7% and interest rates on certificate deposits were 18 to 21 %. I miss those bank days. Banks were giving away stuff if you opened up an account. You could get luggage or blankets or coffee pots. Banks make it feel like it is not worth it to save. Banks charges 29% on credit cards debt and paid less than 1% on savings
All fine and dandy Andy,but The biggest problem remains houses cost twice as much as they did two or three years ago that remains the biggest problem / houses are too expensive! I hope the interest rates go up up up forcing sellers to ask reasonable prices for their homes
Problem I see is I have 3 sets of friends with large savings ready to jump on homes when they hit 6% interest rates and if I know that many in my small group I can’t imagine how many others will buy up homes asap when rates drop just a small amount not sure what it’s gonna take to make housing crash with many still with large savings. My neighbor sold during the run up and is living in a rv he plans on buying 2 homes when it drops many many peeps waiting
That's my concern. There is just so so SO much money in circulation after so much money printing. Inflated prices including home prices are going to be stubborn to fall
People immediately jumping for joy thinking these bank collapses are just going to affect "the bad guys" and that it will only be good for themselves as far as "finally being able to buy a cheap house" have no understanding of macroeconomics or the bigger picture here. I agree irresponsible, greedy entities should fail but their "loss" is not going to automatically translate into a "win" for you.
Still all relative. I have more to gain by the housing market coming down than I do to lose by losing a job -- a 50% increase in home prices from baseline means something around 50% more years working -- that has to be resolved (whatever that % actually is for each market).
I would only buy a home after having minimum 9 months to 1 year emergency fund. No guarantee you'll find a job that pays what you were getting paid, assuming you could find ANY job during a major recession. It's people that don't think like this that cause problems for themselves and everyone else -- they bid up assets they can't afford thinking they will go up for everyone, and put themselves in a bad spot when they have to sell at a loss, and makes prices higher for the people who are more risk averse to the point where there is a divorce in the market (i.e. a long drop before capitulation is there to stop the fall)
Your story about the remote workers being called back is happening a lot in middle Tennessee. I know 4 families personally, where the husband's had to go back to Chicago and Silicone Valley and rent an apartment while their families stay here until their homes sell. Only problem is they aren't selling and they are going to have to take a bath.
spoke to communications business owner friend, did survey with employees about coming back to office, 95% said if had to return they would quit. on top of that profits index is up 30%. I know every industry is different but if you have right people in place work from home or no office requirement can work for a fair amount of companies and individuals
Question for ya Michael. I'm 48, never owned a home. I do qualify for the VA home loan. I live in Orlando, so prices are crazy.. At what point does someone say, you know what? Maybe buying a home/condo isn't going to happen. I might just rent until I retire, then move to Arkansas and get a double wide. You could probably make a whole episode on that.
Arkansas property taxes are crazy. I moved from Orlando a year ago and was looking at Arkansas, cheap there is a lie. South Carolina where I moved, near Aiken much cheaper. Bought a brand new house 2025 SQ ft for 260k with some nice options. My property taxes here this year were 160 for the full year. I am retired so I do get some breaks. Insurance is very cheap too. Arkansas has way too many storms and Little Rock is a ghetto. The best place to move there is near Fayetteville but that is expensive.
Don’t give up, I’m a veteran also and I’m waiting for the right time to purchase. Prices will go down guaranteed. The cycle is cyclical. Just sit back and wait like an alligator, us veterans will have the upper hand when we have no debt and good purchasing power. Don’t be in a hurry or rush, watch the war and we’ll battle another day..
That's exactly why we look at the monthly payment and make it so one of us can pay it if the other looses their job.. We won't buy a house unless it's the same monthly payment as our rent
The way i see it, Its unlikely that the market will experience big gains anytime soon in light of the latest developments involving SVB, therefore it is prudent to set reasonable expectations and get ready for a potentially protracted recovery period. It is advised to postpone making big investment decisions until the economic climate in areas of concern has stabilized. It is best to take precautions and stay out of the current disturbance.
Our economy isn't going to recover until the housing market finds its footing. And people also fail to understand the fact that banks are corporate entities also governed by greed. Since 2020, the banks have been over-leveraging their assets, which was one of the reasons for SVB's implosion. I have never been okay with keeping much money in the bank. I simply invest through my financial advisor, collect my profits, which I then spend and im comfortable with it!
@@josephbush Over the years, I have learnt not to trust corporations. I was badly hit by the '08 financial crisis. Since 2019, I've just been focused on investing through a financial advisor, and it has been paying off, and I'm never going back to banks full time. That just it!
@@aureliobjm My advisor is ‘’HEATHER LEE LARIONI’’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
Things looked worse in Australia around 1989 when interest rates hit 18%. Today I laugh when people complain about 5%. But back then my house was $50000 and my pay $30000. Today the typical house $ 600000 and pay typical $75000. Big bloody difference.
I think it depends on the industry. I also work for govt and they are pushing more and more remote work. First of all its reduces their accommodation footprinnt which reduces costs greatly. Secondly, If people aren't performing while wfh then thats a performance management thing. There's still plenty of people who come into the office and watch youtube all day.
The old saying about pre ww2 Germany where the guy left a wheelbarrow full of money outside of the bank. When he came out the wheelbarrow was gone “Stolen” but the money was still there as it had no value. That is an extreme example, but it happens look at Argentina’s inflation rate. It is an absolute must that they get inflation under control or you will have nothing left.
Well ya, but Weimar era Germany was due to war reparations that they were forced to pay, and the only way they could do so was by just printing money. It wasn't the result of anything close to natural market conditions. I mean, your point still stands. Inflation is dangerous, but our problem is much different. We spend almost 4 trillion dollars a year on redistribution. In other words, our so called "safety net". We could turn this around TOMORROW by simply ending those programs. When LBJ's Great Society was passed in 64, our national debt was 300 billion. Today it's 31 TRILLION. It's no mystery how we got here.
The missing part of this conversation is you act like these people who are looking to buy, aren't pay rent now. If I was to loose my job and not be able to afford my mortgage or rent, I'd much rather have a mortgage...If I am a renter and I am two weeks late, they start proceedings to have me evicted...It might take a year or two for them to foreclose on me if I am an owner...Surely I would be able to get things figured out by then.
I have cash not paying these crazy inflated prices, not jumping in till housing prices come down to 2019 prices. Housing went up 30 -60% in a few years normally housing appreciation is 2-4% a year. Still running into a lot of current homeowners who demand their crazy inflated prices from the pandemic, I wish them luck and walk away with my cash
I'm in agreement. But the money supply increased about that much during that same time. If that money isn't reigned in with Quantitative Tightening, I don't think prices will reverse much. And unfortunately, these new bank bailouts essentially resume QE 🙁
Everyone is different. I actually get more done at home. Initially, I didn't like it but I went ahead and set up a space as an actual office and like it morw mow. I am not in sales ir anythibg that relies on others in person. Our company has always had about 35% of people working remote, so no biggie.
interest rates were under 4% in 2018 and around 4% in 2019 and the median home price barely increased 5% year over year and median home price was 300k at that rate. So how will 5% or 6% increase or even sustain current home prices? 2021 and 2022 was because of liquidity from stimulus not so much rates.
I dont believe it makes much difference. I think the damage is done. When the pivot comes it will be like someone pivoting to coffee after they had 8 double shots of tequila.
Michael, first thanks for the informative video productions you send almost daily. I really like the real estate agent perspectives. I have been looking to buy in Alabama for about 3 years. I quickly learned the buyers do not provide any formal disclosures related to condition or history of properties. However, they do answer to issues asked. Agents will tell you Alabama is a "buyer be ware" state. I live in Mississippi. I buy and sell houses as an investor. ( By the way, I do not rip people off ). My response to Alabama is .... as a seller here in Mississippi, we are not allowed to hide known issues with the houses we sell. This makes me uneasy about purchasing in Alabama. Most people have trust issues with car sales people and real estate agents as it is. Personally, I believe this is a lobbied issue to CYA the real estate agents. I would like to hear your take on this.
I am a history major and I learned in college in the 1980s that history repeats itself. I am also a finance major. We are in a recession. Just look around . I see restaurants near me like Popeyes and Subway empty at night at 6pm and Portillios. We do not have to wait for the government to declare this as a recession. Gas is going up. Wake up people. Better start saving !!!
Thanks for another great video, Michael. I would be curious to hear what you think the timing of and impact of this house market crash will be on 55+ communities, particularly in Florida.
Were in California and my wife is selling houses like crazy, but we're in rural California on land and water, everywhere else has shut down in the mid range.
I agree with you on rates and later they will go up again even if there is a temporary pause and that's not given yet. Rates went up in the Euro zone by 50 basis points a few days ago.
First step should be 10% rates. Then wait 6 to 12 months and see the effects. If inflation stops do nothing. If it continues raise to 12.5% then wait..etc...
@@oldcat87 yup and recently they are really getting enriched if they made it though Covid. Lots of landlords raised rents on good paying tenants to make up the losses. A $500 per month increase is $6000 a year. That’s a new roof every other year. If you wasn’t paying for repairs, you are now. If its the same landlord, that’s all profit and tenants are paying heavily into someone else’s lifestyle. Not that many mortgages or taxes went up that much. Inflation was an excuse to raise rents that high. That’s why I believe the government is stepping in with all of these rent laws.
The median net worth is 121k. The average net worth is 749k. Home owners net worth is 250k. Non home owners is 6k. Choose wisely with a goal. Median means crap for houses
This guy has been talking about a housing collapse for the last year and a half. In Florida sure they might see a cool off but you’re not gonna see anything drop more than 15 to 20 percent. The one thing we know for sure is fear does sell.
@@jimshoe402 Due to a loan crisis where they were giving people subprime loans that all exploded that’s not happening right now. Have you bought a house lately compared to 2008? When you buy a house now you go through 1000 pages of paperwork credit they actually call your boss. 2008 they were giving 500,000 loans to people making 10 bucks an hour with 500 credit scores that’s not happening anymore. I could see the car loan market crashing people are getting $1500 month car loans that’s crazy. I think that will be the next thing to crash not housing. House and will have a cool off but it’s not going to crash.
😆 and that's just the ones you here before I cut some of it out lol. if I were participating while shooting, I would be passed out drunk before the video is even over 😆
When Covid hit, my workplace praised the employees for their ability to pivot and work from home effectively. Everything ran on time/budget and we never missed a deadline. I was able to get twice as much done since with no surplus chit-chat about sports, weather, etc. What's more, I was able to ignore all the woke diversity/inclusion B.S. that has become a constant presence in the workplace (this has really become a problem working in government). I have no desire to return to the office full time. My employer now says we all need to come back together in the office to be effective, but cannot back up any of their claims with proof/data.
I was hired remotely for a major global ad agency living in Philly. I’ve been into office twice in almost 3 years. When I’ve gone in it’s not crowded. We had 2 Office locations in Manhattan, several floors in a skyscraper on 42nd st and several floors on another building in Madison Ave. We let go of 2 floors and have retained 2 floors on 42nd st, and when lease came up for the Madison Ave location, that was not renewed. All my team is remote and of the 3 that lived in NY, one moved to NC, another to South NJ, and the remaining team member is moving to rural PA in a few months. Microsoft Teams allows for productive team meetings, and for one weekly meeting, we meet in the metaverse, on the Spatial platform. Commercial Real Estate is in huge trouble.
That's simple, having a lower interest rate mean that financial institutions are desperately in need for liquidity, and having a higher interest rate mean that financial institutions are not in distress and that they give themself times to balance their account. So don't get fooled by that sudden artificial rate drop. The Interest rate is a FED strategic tool to temporary pumped-up deficient Institutions balance sheets, to buy some time so this distress financial institutions won't trigger an housing market crash.
CPI has been falling for 8 months, so in many cases inflation is not as you state IMO. What's keeping PCE up is shelter costs. Rent is already falling its just not reflected in the lagging data.
its a possibility rate hikes, pauses or cuts wont make much difference. Its like the guy at the bar thats 8 tequila shots in and pivots to coffee. The damage is already done.
I’m in the development industry in LA. I don’t see housing prices dropping like everyone is hoping for. The main reason is lack of available housing, and too many people with low mortgage rates, that they won’t let go. The foreclosure market is not there. There are too many ordinary people holding big cash, ready to capitalize on any opportunity.
Large disruptions in the financial economy rarely end up helping those on the lower rungs just in case everybody was running around laughing about bank failures you better watch out because those failures will come for your wallet soon enough
My husband and I have sold our house and put our stuff on storage. We are renting a small furnished apartment. We are wanting to buy in Florida. When do you think Michael Bordenaro would be a good time to buy. I know it is hard to answer. By the way, love your videos for many reasons but mostly because they are so educational! Thank you. ❤️
Michael, great info. Wonder how many from around the US that bought in FL will be forced to return to their states due to employers canceling remote work? I know several that lived in MI -now working remotely in FL. Enjoy your videos!
Michael- will you do a video or put in a video a segment on what conditions, prices, rates, etc you’re looking for before buying an investment property? Thanks
If the government is printing all of this "new" money for these bailouts, for the long-term I see inflation soaring and rates going over 20%. Not unheard of just recall the late 70's. Foreign folks will abandon the dollar in all ways.
I agree with you on not buying real estate now, but disagree on the fed raising rates. The inflation problem is nowhere near as big of a problem as banks collapsing and the bond market imploding. There would be less of a probability of hyperinflation if the fed lowers rates now to stop the banking collapse than raising rates and putting the country in a depression and then flooding the economy with massive stimulus. Lowering rates now is the lesser of two evils.
Another solid, practical lecture. Thanks. I like those who suggest having 1-year saved up as an emergency fund. Both in money and food. Times are very uncertain. As Shakespeare said in MacBeth about how confused times are in his day: "Nothing is, but what is not."
I agree that inflation is the big problem but I don't think that the Fed can fix this problem simply by jacking up the interest rate. This inflation is clearly driven by shortage of supply and the shortage of supply is a result of breakdown of the supply chains. Unless the government can quickly fix the supply chains that have been damaged by the pandemic, this inflation is not going to go away any time soon.
Michael: In Cincinnati the City Council is floating the idea of allowing single family only zoned areas to permit "accessory Dwelling Units" in the back yards. Meaning a rental house on the same lot despite zoning, for AIRBNB, or mother in law, etc. Is this going on elsewhere? Greg
The remote work thing...😆 Common sense told me that about remote work on day one. Someone who didn't know that has absolutely no business operating a business.
If my money is FDIC insured I would be a fool to deduct and close out my savings to place in Bitcoin or under my mattress. It's smart to spread your savings with a few mega banks for protection... thank goodness our Gov't created the FDIC insurance protection bill for up to $250K coverage... no way will I cash out my bank certificate of deposits , money market funds, and savings funds, which would eliminate the protection I enjoy now.
I don't know what's going to happen with the economy and housing market but I think it was foolish for the Google workers to move across the country not considering wether they'd be called back into the office especially since the work from home policy came from the disruption caused by a pandemic, which is usually a short term event.
Thinking out loud here..... If there's any notion of anymore bank failures, I believe a bailout will happen BEFORE a massive failure. Wall Street Bankster's own a substantial amount of both rental properties and single-family homes. It's a win win for them. Out here in Phoenix they own over 31% of properties. How is this fair?
"Controlling inflation" is not the reason the Fed is raising interest rates, it's just an excuse for raising rates. The real reason for raising rates is to save the dollar. They don't care two hoots if people can't afford anything or not, it's all about saving the dollar, or propping up the dollar on the world stage. If they reverse course, and do QE, or lower rates, then the dollar will tank. So for now failing banks will just get bailed out, rates will continue to go up. I think people will bail out of the dollar anyway, as they are even now doing. After all, it's no longer the petro dollar anymore, much less tied to gold - it's not tied to anything of value, it is truly nothing. It's like watching a ticking time bomb, or maybe a slowly cracking facade, but inflation, hyper inflation really, will rule the day. Really enjoy watching you walk around and seeing the beautiful landscaping and scenery.
No housing crash, just lower rates or make cash free from the printing press. Also since the US debt bubble is 32 trillion, why not raise the debt ceiling and go into more debt? (Looks like the brics nations will soon become the worlds currency since its backed by gold instead of IOU’s)
We don't make enough stuff - pulling money out of the market isn't going to fix this. It's not too much money but not enough stuff. ...... and stop buying things you can't afford.
Pro tip: take ALL your money out of the bank. Max out your credit cards and get what you can while you can. Just default or file for bankruptcy like the big guys do ! F the system!
Home Sellers Getting RIPPED OFF By Investors th-cam.com/video/0kxbv5p-KmE/w-d-xo.html
I was considering Tresuary bonds. Last week. The new rate looked attractive. I'm on sideline now.
@@lynnec6325 T Bills not Bonds 4 week to 52 THEN adjust got 10..V Bernie
45,000/ 50,000 people no home
Remote work is not actually "remote" cause while you work for american company (Google, Fb, etc) the company will be asked by the state where the employee spends his money aka paying consumer's taxes. Because if they pay you Fed bills they want to make sure you spend 100% of these bills in the USA jurisdiction.
Yep
Wall Street own the Representives, etc..
You will own nothing and be happy!
Hey Michael, love your videos and the information but I especially like the fact that you don't punish us everytime with an intro or any sh*tty music. You get right into it and don't waste any time. Thanks and have a good one!!
I like that too! He gets down to business right away..
Yes
I agree
Agreed
The Great Unwinding is just starting. We've added 23 trillion dollars to the national debt since the last crash in 2008, driving up all asset prices. If you don't have to make big purchases, don't. Stay in cash at 4.5% interest and let the dust settle.
If you were asked to name your favorite youtuber and your favorite trader, who would it be? I'll go first. Michael Bordenaro and Warren Buffet
When the inflation gets out of control like it is now it takes a lot to get it to 2%.
Michael, you really are doing a great job helping all of us out by sharing your vast knowledge! Thank you!
One of the reasons I became a firefighter paramedic is job security. Even in hard economic times I know I won’t get canned. Not to mention the practical medical skills and survival skills we learn, train and use in real world high stress situations. I see SHTF for people routinely.
I knew a firefighter who almost got laid off a few years ago. They were trying to reduce the amount of firehouses to half. I personally don’t believe any job is safe. They laying off Truck drivers and I never thought they’d be laid off. Some are more safer but it’s not immune. Definitely great career with good skills.
Im a nurse thats what i thought... see forced vaccine???
@@trainsandlocomotives well considering my department is small and we already short staffed I seriously doubt we’ll be laying off personnel. Yea people like to always say no job is safe but my job is way safer than a lot of others that’s for sure. And my department is well funded via local tax which the citizens voted for and our city council learned from the 2007-08 crash that it’s a good idea to have a rainy day fund which we do and it’s very well funded to keep
Us operating for our citizens boom or bust. Misery loves company so people always like to say no job is safe. Nothing in life is impossible but in reality we do t think in terms of possible or impossible, we think in terms of probable vs improbable.
@@TriLe-nz4oq my wife’s a nurse too. Pediatrics and her hospital stood firm against forced vaxx
@@ironsurvival7011 Is the fire fighter salary good though. The one fire fighter I know has to do other jobs to supplement his salary.
The best investment one can do right now is investing on Forex trading though stocks are good but ever since I swapped to Forex, I've seen so much difference.
There's a favourable forex rise in profit, This will be the best time to invest in forex based on current status.
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Even if rates go down or stay lower, credit is drying up and the only people getting mortgages will be those with lots of assets and a great credit score. Banks and other lenders are becoming more and more apprehensive writing mortgages.
I think so too Paul, there will be a credit crunch and will be yet another barrier to entry for buyers
Rates won’t come down in an inflationary economy.
That's a good thing
Except for first time homebuyers. FHA will back stop these loans. Every lender will be turning to first time homebuyers. Which will make prices go up, and at worst keep them elevated. But yes credit is drying up for the mid tier folk, especially in commercial
""If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency first by inflation then by deflation the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered" - Thomas Jefferson
Many people are in denial.expecring a housing crash. Here in South Carolina, stores are packed and builders are still building like mad and they are selling everything they are building.
Some areas are still pretty hot, I live in one of them. But thats not the case across the board.
Seems the same in my area in CA. Selling like crazy with prices Still increasing.
Same in my area of Florida
Selling to individuals / families who actually move in? Or selling to investors / equity funds?
@@rdean150 I am guessing aot of retired people from out of state. As they build they sell them. In Sage Creek which is a huge development , they been building for years and the HOA told me they will be building for several more years. Mostly everybody works where I live with families. I am retired single guy, just chilling. Looking to sell next year and then build on acreage nearby. The houses aren't vacant...
I am 58 and in the 1980s interest rates on savings was 6 to 7% and interest rates on certificate deposits were 18 to 21 %. I miss those bank days. Banks were giving away stuff if you opened up an account. You could get luggage or blankets or coffee pots. Banks make it feel like it is not worth it to save. Banks charges 29% on credit cards debt and paid less than 1% on savings
All fine and dandy Andy,but The biggest problem remains houses cost twice as much as they did two or three years ago that remains the biggest problem / houses are too expensive! I hope the interest rates go up up up forcing sellers to ask reasonable prices for their homes
Me too.
Problem I see is I have 3 sets of friends with large savings ready to jump on homes when they hit 6% interest rates and if I know that many in my small group I can’t imagine how many others will buy up homes asap when rates drop just a small amount not sure what it’s gonna take to make housing crash with many still with large savings. My neighbor sold during the run up and is living in a rv he plans on buying 2 homes when it drops many many peeps waiting
That's my concern. There is just so so SO much money in circulation after so much money printing. Inflated prices including home prices are going to be stubborn to fall
People immediately jumping for joy thinking these bank collapses are just going to affect "the bad guys" and that it will only be good for themselves as far as "finally being able to buy a cheap house" have no understanding of macroeconomics or the bigger picture here. I agree irresponsible, greedy entities should fail but their "loss" is not going to automatically translate into a "win" for you.
Nope it will cost all of us unfortunately. The govt saying taxpayers will not be paying for these bank failures is a big fat lie.
Still all relative. I have more to gain by the housing market coming down than I do to lose by losing a job -- a 50% increase in home prices from baseline means something around 50% more years working -- that has to be resolved (whatever that % actually is for each market).
I would only buy a home after having minimum 9 months to 1 year emergency fund. No guarantee you'll find a job that pays what you were getting paid, assuming you could find ANY job during a major recession. It's people that don't think like this that cause problems for themselves and everyone else -- they bid up assets they can't afford thinking they will go up for everyone, and put themselves in a bad spot when they have to sell at a loss, and makes prices higher for the people who are more risk averse to the point where there is a divorce in the market (i.e. a long drop before capitulation is there to stop the fall)
@@MeJonTheDon Agreed
Yah 18% higher net worth and 100% higher cost of living. Negative real change
Your story about the remote workers being called back is happening a lot in middle Tennessee. I know 4 families personally, where the husband's had to go back to Chicago and Silicone Valley and rent an apartment while their families stay here until their homes sell. Only problem is they aren't selling and they are going to have to take a bath.
spoke to communications business owner friend, did survey with employees about coming back to office, 95% said if had to return they would quit. on top of that profits index is up 30%. I know every industry is different but if you have right people in place work from home or no office requirement can work for a fair amount of companies and individuals
Real Estate market up here in Boston has turned to low volume, low inventory, (Still) very very high prices.
Michael, you are so graceful as you politely present your expert opinion!!
Question for ya Michael. I'm 48, never owned a home. I do qualify for the VA home loan. I live in Orlando, so prices are crazy.. At what point does someone say, you know what? Maybe buying a home/condo isn't going to happen. I might just rent until I retire, then move to Arkansas and get a double wide. You could probably make a whole episode on that.
Arkansas property taxes are crazy. I moved from Orlando a year ago and was looking at Arkansas, cheap there is a lie. South Carolina where I moved, near Aiken much cheaper. Bought a brand new house 2025 SQ ft for 260k with some nice options. My property taxes here this year were 160 for the full year. I am retired so I do get some breaks. Insurance is very cheap too. Arkansas has way too many storms and Little Rock is a ghetto. The best place to move there is near Fayetteville but that is expensive.
Thats only for you to decide, but I think many folks are probably pondering the same. Might be worth exploring in a video.
@@andredaedone7732 that's cool, I was stationed at Shaw AFB in Sumter, SC. I enjoyed SC. SC is booming now as well isn't it?
Property taxes in Arkansas are very cheap. Idk what this guy is talkin about
Don’t give up, I’m a veteran also and I’m waiting for the right time to purchase. Prices will go down guaranteed. The cycle is cyclical. Just sit back and wait like an alligator, us veterans will have the upper hand when we have no debt and good purchasing power. Don’t be in a hurry or rush, watch the war and we’ll battle another day..
That's exactly why we look at the monthly payment and make it so one of us can pay it if the other looses their job.. We won't buy a house unless it's the same monthly payment as our rent
Loses
The way i see it, Its unlikely that the market will experience big gains anytime soon in light of the latest developments involving SVB, therefore it is prudent to set reasonable expectations and get ready for a potentially protracted recovery period. It is advised to postpone making big investment decisions until the economic climate in areas of concern has stabilized. It is best to take precautions and stay out of the current disturbance.
Our economy isn't going to recover until the housing market finds its footing. And people also fail to understand the fact that banks are corporate entities also governed by greed. Since 2020, the banks have been over-leveraging their assets, which was one of the reasons for SVB's implosion. I have never been okay with keeping much money in the bank. I simply invest through my financial advisor, collect my profits, which I then spend and im comfortable with it!
@@josephbush Over the years, I have learnt not to trust corporations. I was badly hit by the '08 financial crisis. Since 2019, I've just been focused on investing through a financial advisor, and it has been paying off, and I'm never going back to banks full time. That just it!
@@gatesbev Quite Interesting, I've been thinking of pulling out my money too. Could you recommend who your advisor is? I could really use some help.
@@aureliobjm My advisor is ‘’HEATHER LEE LARIONI’’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
@@gatesbev Thank you for sharing dear. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Things looked worse in Australia around 1989 when interest rates hit 18%. Today I laugh when people complain about 5%.
But back then my house was $50000 and my pay $30000. Today the typical house $ 600000 and pay typical $75000. Big bloody difference.
Great video brother 👏👏
thanks dude!
That's a flat out LIE that the GOV is having them say! We work more and do more by working Remote.
I think it depends on the industry. I also work for govt and they are pushing more and more remote work. First of all its reduces their accommodation footprinnt which reduces costs greatly. Secondly, If people aren't performing while wfh then thats a performance management thing. There's still plenty of people who come into the office and watch youtube all day.
The same families have run the same game for hundreds if not thousands of years.
The old saying about pre ww2 Germany where the guy left a wheelbarrow full of money outside of the bank. When he came out the wheelbarrow was gone “Stolen” but the money was still there as it had no value. That is an extreme example, but it happens look at Argentina’s inflation rate. It is an absolute must that they get inflation under control or you will have nothing left.
Venezuela too. Perfect example!
@@FloridaGirl- 110%
Well ya, but Weimar era Germany was due to war reparations that they were forced to pay, and the only way they could do so was by just printing money. It wasn't the result of anything close to natural market conditions.
I mean, your point still stands. Inflation is dangerous, but our problem is much different. We spend almost 4 trillion dollars a year on redistribution. In other words, our so called "safety net". We could turn this around TOMORROW by simply ending those programs.
When LBJ's Great Society was passed in 64, our national debt was 300 billion. Today it's 31 TRILLION. It's no mystery how we got here.
MICHAEL,hello,no now is STILL,NOT the time to buy
The missing part of this conversation is you act like these people who are looking to buy, aren't pay rent now. If I was to loose my job and not be able to afford my mortgage or rent, I'd much rather have a mortgage...If I am a renter and I am two weeks late, they start proceedings to have me evicted...It might take a year or two for them to foreclose on me if I am an owner...Surely I would be able to get things figured out by then.
Bingo
Thank you! please keep educating these people 👍
I have cash not paying these crazy inflated prices, not jumping in till housing prices come down to 2019 prices. Housing went up 30 -60% in a few years normally housing appreciation is 2-4% a year. Still running into a lot of current homeowners who demand their crazy inflated prices from the pandemic, I wish them luck and walk away with my cash
I'm in agreement. But the money supply increased about that much during that same time. If that money isn't reigned in with Quantitative Tightening, I don't think prices will reverse much. And unfortunately, these new bank bailouts essentially resume QE
🙁
Everyone is different. I actually get more done at home. Initially, I didn't like it but I went ahead and set up a space as an actual office and like it morw mow. I am not in sales ir anythibg that relies on others in person. Our company has always had about 35% of people working remote, so no biggie.
What industry are you in?
interest rates were under 4% in 2018 and around 4% in 2019 and the median home price barely increased 5% year over year and median home price was 300k at that rate. So how will 5% or 6% increase or even sustain current home prices? 2021 and 2022 was because of liquidity from stimulus not so much rates.
It's not going to be sustained
I dont believe it makes much difference. I think the damage is done. When the pivot comes it will be like someone pivoting to coffee after they had 8 double shots of tequila.
Michael, first thanks for the informative video productions you send almost daily. I really like the real estate agent perspectives. I have been looking to buy in Alabama for about 3 years. I quickly learned the buyers do not provide any formal disclosures related to condition or history of properties. However, they do answer to issues asked.
Agents will tell you Alabama is a "buyer be ware" state. I live in Mississippi. I buy and sell houses as an investor. ( By the way, I do not rip people off ). My response to Alabama is .... as a seller here in Mississippi, we are not allowed to hide known issues with the houses we sell. This makes me uneasy about purchasing in Alabama. Most people have trust issues with car sales people and real estate agents as it is.
Personally, I believe this is a lobbied issue to CYA the real estate agents. I would like to hear your take on this.
Just happy i got my house 6 years ago because this housing market would have drive me Crazy
For sure
Yup. It’s best to be thankful. I’m thankful every time I think about it. It doesn’t matter what kind of property you got
I am a history major and I learned in college in the 1980s that history repeats itself. I am also a finance major. We are in a recession. Just look around . I see restaurants near me like Popeyes and Subway empty at night at 6pm and Portillios. We do not have to wait for the government to declare this as a recession. Gas is going up. Wake up people. Better start saving !!!
Thanks for another great video, Michael. I would be curious to hear what you think the timing of and impact of this house market crash will be on 55+ communities, particularly in Florida.
55+ have bigger units and Sq footage it makes NO SENSE not that I have kids or anything but how does that make sense
Unusual good vid except the part about "Facebook having a change of heart." ..Facebook can't change something it doesn't have...
Were in California and my wife is selling houses like crazy, but we're in rural California on land and water, everywhere else has shut down in the mid range.
I'm sure those areas are still "affordable" for California as well, once you get outside the big cities
First comment... crude oil a month ago (2/19/23) - $76.30. Today (3/17/23) is $66.34. If there is not a recession why is oil going down?
What about eviction moratoriums like we had in the pandemic and rent control they're trying to pass in Orlando? Never had this before.
Let's all go back to the gold standard and light our homes with candles and grow our own food.
you forgot to add the sarcasm symbol 😊
"Walking and Talking Common Sense" you've got the best advise on TH-cam. Keep it up dude. Rob M. in Smithtown NY
Another Great Video, Michael. I think just as you do. You are always spot on, in my opinion.
keep up the great work. I never miss a video.
i totally agree that right now is NOT the right time to be making major risk-on investments.
Absolutely not, who knows whats coming next
Brahman Beathing Brings Bounty; Grounding Assured.
Thank You for Your Honesty Michael.
I agree with you on rates and later they will go up again even if there is a temporary pause and that's not given yet. Rates went up in the Euro zone by 50 basis points a few days ago.
Just checked, the average is back up to 7% according to bank rate.
First step should be 10% rates. Then wait 6 to 12 months and see the effects. If inflation stops do nothing. If it continues raise to 12.5% then wait..etc...
This channel is life saving thank you so muchhhh
If you are a valuable tech employee, you have nothing to worry about. My company wouldn't dare fire me.
Pay mortgage (to bank) vs pay the landlord’s mortgage. I choose the former. Now is the perfect time to buy, many sellers are taking low ball offers.
Mortgage company is more lenient than a landlord. Payment is still higher than it used to be because of the interest and will only get worse.
@@trainsandlocomotives enrich the landlord by paying thousands of dollars each month is the worst thing anyone should do
@@oldcat87 yup and recently they are really getting enriched if they made it though Covid. Lots of landlords raised rents on good paying tenants to make up the losses. A $500 per month increase is $6000 a year. That’s a new roof every other year. If you wasn’t paying for repairs, you are now. If its the same landlord, that’s all profit and tenants are paying heavily into someone else’s lifestyle. Not that many mortgages or taxes went up that much. Inflation was an excuse to raise rents that high. That’s why I believe the government is stepping in with all of these rent laws.
So much is unknown it really takes buyers confidence away.
The median net worth is 121k.
The average net worth is 749k.
Home owners net worth is 250k.
Non home owners is 6k.
Choose wisely with a goal.
Median means crap for houses
This guy has been talking about a housing collapse for the last year and a half. In Florida sure they might see a cool off but you’re not gonna see anything drop more than 15 to 20 percent. The one thing we know for sure is fear does sell.
2008 50% Drop ????????????
@@jimshoe402 Due to a loan crisis where they were giving people subprime loans that all exploded that’s not happening right now. Have you bought a house lately compared to 2008? When you buy a house now you go through 1000 pages of paperwork credit they actually call your boss. 2008 they were giving 500,000 loans to people making 10 bucks an hour with 500 credit scores that’s not happening anymore. I could see the car loan market crashing people are getting $1500 month car loans that’s crazy. I think that will be the next thing to crash not housing. House and will have a cool off but it’s not going to crash.
Can one person float the house payment? Should be a question everyone considers. You NEVER know what will happen, injury, illness, job loss, etc...
We need to start a drinking Game for watching these videos. Every time you hear a leaf blower or a parrot take a shot! lol
😆 and that's just the ones you here before I cut some of it out lol. if I were participating while shooting, I would be passed out drunk before the video is even over 😆
@@MichaelBordenaro 😂
@@MichaelBordenaro 😂😂
😅
We printed more money today. That will make house prices go up.
My house is up 12k last 30 days.
When Covid hit, my workplace praised the employees for their ability to pivot and work from home effectively. Everything ran on time/budget and we never missed a deadline. I was able to get twice as much done since with no surplus chit-chat about sports, weather, etc. What's more, I was able to ignore all the woke diversity/inclusion B.S. that has become a constant presence in the workplace (this has really become a problem working in government). I have no desire to return to the office full time. My employer now says we all need to come back together in the office to be effective, but cannot back up any of their claims with proof/data.
Resist that FOMO!!! Don't do it! Real dicey time right now, feel like bottom could fall out at any point in the near future
I was hired remotely for a major global ad agency living in Philly. I’ve been into office twice in almost 3 years. When I’ve gone in it’s not crowded. We had 2 Office locations in Manhattan, several floors in a skyscraper on 42nd st and several floors on another building in Madison Ave. We let go of 2 floors and have retained 2 floors on 42nd st, and when lease came up for the Madison Ave location, that was not renewed. All my team is remote and of the 3 that lived in NY, one moved to NC, another to South NJ, and the remaining team member is moving to rural PA in a few months. Microsoft Teams allows for productive team meetings, and for one weekly meeting, we meet in the metaverse, on the Spatial platform. Commercial Real Estate is in huge trouble.
That's simple, having a lower interest rate mean that financial institutions are desperately in need for liquidity, and having a higher interest rate mean that financial institutions are not in distress and that they give themself times to balance their account. So don't get fooled by that sudden artificial rate drop. The Interest rate is a FED strategic tool to temporary pumped-up deficient Institutions balance sheets, to buy some time so this distress financial institutions won't trigger an housing market crash.
Pay attention dummy.
CPI has been falling for 8 months, so in many cases inflation is not as you state IMO. What's keeping PCE up is shelter costs. Rent is already falling its just not reflected in the lagging data.
its a possibility rate hikes, pauses or cuts wont make much difference. Its like the guy at the bar thats 8 tequila shots in and pivots to coffee. The damage is already done.
It doesn't feel like the housing market is ever going to crash, I'm giving up hope of ever owning a home again.
And who is going to buy it? If 95% can’t afford
@@MikhailFromUSA investors and a few rich people who can afford to be landlords
Could you explain Central Bank Digital Currency to your viewers? It seems important to be aware of.
I did in a video a while ago, but might be worth bringing up again.
@@MichaelBordenaro Thanks. I think your viewers would benefit with a reminder
@@MichaelBordenaro Fed Now payment system begins July 1 2023
I’m in the development industry in LA.
I don’t see housing prices dropping like everyone is hoping for. The main reason is lack of available housing, and too many people with low mortgage rates, that they won’t let go. The foreclosure market is not there. There are too many ordinary people holding big cash, ready to capitalize on any opportunity.
Way to bring it Mike. Great stuff.
Large disruptions in the financial economy rarely end up helping those on the lower rungs just in case everybody was running around laughing about bank failures you better watch out because those failures will come for your wallet soon enough
thank you. finally a thoughtful comment
They have already been coming for our wallet the last few years!!! Time for the rich to pay as well.
My husband and I have sold our house and put our stuff on storage. We are renting a small furnished apartment. We are wanting to buy in Florida. When do you think Michael Bordenaro would be a good time to buy. I know it is hard to answer.
By the way, love your videos for many reasons but mostly because they are so educational! Thank you. ❤️
Now. Before houses double.
Probably around 3 years.
Do you ever run across alligators or iguanas on your daily walk! They would scare the SH*** out of me in Key West!!
3-4 months sadly isn't enough emergency funds. I say 2 years minimum. That's how long it took me to get a permanent job after losing one.
Thank you Michael!
Michael, great info. Wonder how many from around the US that bought in FL will be forced to return to their states due to employers canceling remote work? I know several that lived in MI -now working remotely in FL. Enjoy your videos!
Michael- will you do a video or put in a video a segment on what conditions, prices, rates, etc you’re looking for before buying an investment property? Thanks
Everything is only as good as what people will pay.
thanks for the insight Michael, videos are very helpful in navigating this crazy ass market rn
My pleasure!
I'm in my mid twenties. I have basically given up all hope of ever buying a home. There's no point in even trying anymore.
Dude you need to come to little havana the next area that's going to be gentrified i can show you around :)
LOVE the people and FOOD..
Another great video. As far as I can see there is no notification bell. I want to subscribe.
If the government is printing all of this "new" money for these bailouts, for the long-term I see inflation soaring and rates going over 20%.
Not unheard of just recall the late 70's. Foreign folks will abandon the dollar in all ways.
Great video! How or will this affect Airbnb?
Is South Beach the most expensive neighborhood there?
I agree with you on not buying real estate now, but disagree on the fed raising rates. The inflation problem is nowhere near as big of a problem as banks collapsing and the bond market imploding. There would be less of a probability of hyperinflation if the fed lowers rates now to stop the banking collapse than raising rates and putting the country in a depression and then flooding the economy with massive stimulus. Lowering rates now is the lesser of two evils.
Love your sachs interview
Thanks glad you caught that!
Another solid, practical lecture. Thanks. I like those who suggest having 1-year saved up as an emergency fund. Both in money and food. Times are very uncertain. As Shakespeare said in MacBeth about how confused times are in his day: "Nothing is, but what is not."
Keep stacking silver.
I agree that inflation is the big problem but I don't think that the Fed can fix this problem simply by jacking up the interest rate. This inflation is clearly driven by shortage of supply and the shortage of supply is a result of breakdown of the supply chains. Unless the government can quickly fix the supply chains that have been damaged by the pandemic, this inflation is not going to go away any time soon.
I see builders who cannot sell their own homes are starting to rent out their brand new houses. . I never ever saw this before
Michael: In Cincinnati the City Council is floating the idea of allowing single family only zoned areas to permit "accessory Dwelling Units" in the back yards. Meaning a rental house on the same lot despite zoning, for AIRBNB, or mother in law, etc. Is this going on elsewhere?
Greg
All the free bailout money printing will be causing hyperinflation very soon.
House Prices to the moon
The remote work thing...😆 Common sense told me that about remote work on day one. Someone who didn't know that has absolutely no business operating a business.
If my money is FDIC insured I would be a fool to deduct and close out my savings to place in Bitcoin or under my mattress. It's smart to spread your savings with a few mega banks for protection... thank goodness our Gov't created the FDIC insurance protection bill for up to $250K coverage... no way will I cash out my bank certificate of deposits , money market funds, and savings funds, which would eliminate the protection I enjoy now.
thank you for bringing good advice to this discussion
I don't know what's going to happen with the economy and housing market but I think it was foolish for the Google workers to move across the country not considering wether they'd be called back into the office especially since the work from home policy came from the disruption caused by a pandemic, which is usually a short term event.
I totally agree
You were correct Michael.
UBS to buy troubled Credit Suisse in deal brokered by Swiss government
Thinking out loud here.....
If there's any notion of anymore bank failures, I believe a bailout will happen BEFORE a massive failure.
Wall Street Bankster's own a substantial amount of both rental properties and single-family homes. It's a win win for them.
Out here in Phoenix they own over 31% of properties. How is this fair?
"Controlling inflation" is not the reason the Fed is raising interest rates, it's just an excuse for raising rates. The real reason for raising rates is to save the dollar. They don't care two hoots if people can't afford anything or not, it's all about saving the dollar, or propping up the dollar on the world stage. If they reverse course, and do QE, or lower rates, then the dollar will tank. So for now failing banks will just get bailed out, rates will continue to go up. I think people will bail out of the dollar anyway, as they are even now doing. After all, it's no longer the petro dollar anymore, much less tied to gold - it's not tied to anything of value, it is truly nothing. It's like watching a ticking time bomb, or maybe a slowly cracking facade, but inflation, hyper inflation really, will rule the day. Really enjoy watching you walk around and seeing the beautiful landscaping and scenery.
No housing crash, just lower rates or make cash free from the printing press. Also since the US debt bubble is 32 trillion, why not raise the debt ceiling and go into more debt? (Looks like the brics nations will soon become the worlds currency since its backed by gold instead of IOU’s)
We don't make enough stuff - pulling money out of the market isn't going to fix this.
It's not too much money but not enough stuff.
...... and stop buying things you can't afford.
Housing market doing fine in Tampa, and it's crazy in NY
The funniest thing of all to me Michael, is no matter how this all plays out, there will be those getting more rich from it.
Thanks Mich
Great information thanks
Pro tip: take ALL your money out of the bank. Max out your credit cards and get what you can while you can. Just default or file for bankruptcy like the big guys do ! F the system!
Haha except the big guys get to live be a separate set of rules compared to the little guys
Thou shalt not steal