Things are going well for both buyers and sellers. Gotta remember a lot of sellers are end users that need to buy something else (either upgrading or moving to another area). Sellers dont want to sell at depressed prices UNLESS they can buy another property at those same prices. BoC signalled a pause to start the year in 2025, so there's no more reductions in lending rates. Means a stable market where people can make a move instead of watching for rates news. Spring 2025 will be more active than 2023 and 2024. People expecting a crash will die waiting for a crash, people expecting for price increases need to wait until 2028 when 0 new condos are coming on the market. For the majority of buyers and sellers, it'll be a stable time to make a move. (no more rate swings until late spring or start of summer)
I would like to know the characteristics of the condos selling. Are people buying mostly 2 bedroom? The vast majority of condos are shoebox 1 bedroom and less. Who wants these condos unless the price is very low.
Good question. Most of the sales are happening for larger units. 2 and 3 bedrooms. Here are the numbers. 12,999 total condo apartment sales in Toronto (up to Dec 16) in 2024 219 - 0 bed 2601 - 1 bed 6738 - 2 bed 2379 - 3 bed 157 - 4 bed 5 - 5 bed
@@TomStoreyhow does that compare to the listings? For example, is there a disproportionate number of 1 bedrooms listed but not sold? Might indicate a specific weakness within the market, ie 1 bedroom is dropping in price, but larger 2+ units are propping up the overall price in the reports.
@@keithiverson6687 There are 4.729 active condo apt listing in Toronto. These numbers are for the entire city, they would look different if we were just looking at the downtown core. 0 Bed: 114 1 Bed: 1,021 2 Bed: 2,515 3 Bed: 987 4 Bed: 85 5 Bed: 6 6 Bed: 1
I think since we're seeing such a distorted market, with the various governments doing so many things to pump housing prices from high development charges to backstopping mortgage insurance to tax-free savings accounts I'm not sure that long-term trends will hold.
Great video, as always, Tom. May I ask, what is that program you are using to quickly check data and create graphs on the fly? Is this available to me as a Realtor?
FTHB of a Condo here. My thesis was partly correct - prices of anything in the 416 halfway liveable are super glued. There will never be a crash. However, the gap between freeholds and condos are going to get bigger which is a headache for people getting on the housing ladder.
With condos big enough for one kid selling at 650-700, and employers no longer growing or even laying off employees, how will prices not go lower. We live in Montreal and we find it expensive enough when you factor in the 600$ a month heating cost during winters, but we don't understand how Toronto new families can make it there while saving.
For the average condo investor, cash flows keep improving as BoC keeps cutting rates. Inventory is going to keep declining as the over leveraged uneducated speculators offload their units. We’re close to an inflection point. Why would one sell if they are making money every month holding? To pay the government a ton of tax on the sale? 😂
Not entirely accurate. Really depends on a few variables: How much property was purchased for, size of downpayment, size of mortgage, mortgage interest rate, rent amount, maintenance fees, property taxes, etc. A lot of investors take a loss on a monthly basis when you take into account carrying cost vs rent, and capital gains have increased significantly, therefore the idea of selling for a significant profit in the future is far less likely now.
@ if one holds, they increase equity in their property every month (which isnt subject to tax). Assuming they sell 5 years from now without any price appreciation, they are still in the green. Also the Toronto condo market isn’t just the speculative buyers from 2021. So can all these TH-camrs stop casting doom and gloom in every video to get clicks!! Similar to the stock market, no one cares about historical data. It’s already priced in. Smart investors look ahead. What I see is a sharp under supply of condos in 2 years coupled with lower interest rates, inflation at 2%, and a conservative government that will aim to cut taxes and bring capital back to Canada. PSA: Every condo investor just needs to be patient. Don’t panic sell and regret your decision in 5 years.
The condo investors that aren't selling, can't sell... period! You sound like Tom. Saying the condo market is balanced, when it is more months in the buyer's market, then the entire space that makes up the balanced market! It is over 2.5 months deep in the buyer's market at 7.7 months, and the buyer's market is 3-5 months. Even when listings are expiring at a large rate. Although, I think you're just being an optimist, while Tom is outright lying. You can delete this if you need to, Tom.
@ I agree with you - but ask the bigger question. How much of the entire market do these “investors” that can’t sell comprise of? I doubt 50% of the condo supply was built from 2021. Come now. Let’s focus on the facts. The doom and gloom headlines all focus on the minority of condo investors that got in around 2021. Anyone before that is in the green. Trust me, I’m one of them. All I’m saying is real estate is a long term play. Not a month to month speculation game. If you want this, go to the stock market or better yet the casino.
Investors are losing money. What did they expect? That prices would always go up? There is a limit to what buyers can pay. It was also known that low interest rates are temporary. History teaches us that it teaches us nothing: th-cam.com/video/LtFyP0qy9XU/w-d-xo.html
Things are going well for both buyers and sellers.
Gotta remember a lot of sellers are end users that need to buy something else (either upgrading or moving to another area). Sellers dont want to sell at depressed prices UNLESS they can buy another property at those same prices.
BoC signalled a pause to start the year in 2025, so there's no more reductions in lending rates. Means a stable market where people can make a move instead of watching for rates news.
Spring 2025 will be more active than 2023 and 2024. People expecting a crash will die waiting for a crash, people expecting for price increases need to wait until 2028 when 0 new condos are coming on the market. For the majority of buyers and sellers, it'll be a stable time to make a move. (no more rate swings until late spring or start of summer)
I would like to know the characteristics of the condos selling. Are people buying mostly 2 bedroom? The vast majority of condos are shoebox 1 bedroom and less. Who wants these condos unless the price is very low.
Good question. Most of the sales are happening for larger units. 2 and 3 bedrooms. Here are the numbers. 12,999 total condo apartment sales in Toronto (up to Dec 16) in 2024
219 - 0 bed
2601 - 1 bed
6738 - 2 bed
2379 - 3 bed
157 - 4 bed
5 - 5 bed
@@TomStoreyhow does that compare to the listings? For example, is there a disproportionate number of 1 bedrooms listed but not sold? Might indicate a specific weakness within the market, ie 1 bedroom is dropping in price, but larger 2+ units are propping up the overall price in the reports.
@@keithiverson6687 There are 4.729 active condo apt listing in Toronto. These numbers are for the entire city, they would look different if we were just looking at the downtown core.
0 Bed: 114
1 Bed: 1,021
2 Bed: 2,515
3 Bed: 987
4 Bed: 85
5 Bed: 6
6 Bed: 1
I was really looking for a 7 bed…
How do they come up with the months of inventory calculation? Is it units available divided by number of units sold in the same month?
Correct! It's active listings divided by number of sales from the past month.
Prices increases great price stays same for 20 years so be it. Just as long it’s not considerable less than what we paid for
I think since we're seeing such a distorted market, with the various governments doing so many things to pump housing prices from high development charges to backstopping mortgage insurance to tax-free savings accounts I'm not sure that long-term trends will hold.
Great video, as always, Tom. May I ask, what is that program you are using to quickly check data and create graphs on the fly? Is this available to me as a Realtor?
Yes! If you are a member of TRREB. You will have access to the Habistat.
Yeyyy!!! little lower and a huge chunk of Surrey's population will move to Toronto
Steve's clients will sell and buy from you. Win-win
🤞
Excellent Tom!❤
Thank you. Great, as always.
Balanced market is good.
You can keep your tiny cages in the super congestion... no thanks
First man!!
2,043rd
FTHB of a Condo here. My thesis was partly correct - prices of anything in the 416 halfway liveable are super glued. There will never be a crash. However, the gap between freeholds and condos are going to get bigger which is a headache for people getting on the housing ladder.
Me Second !!! 😆
2,043rd
With condos big enough for one kid selling at 650-700, and employers no longer growing or even laying off employees, how will prices not go lower. We live in Montreal and we find it expensive enough when you factor in the 600$ a month heating cost during winters, but we don't understand how Toronto new families can make it there while saving.
For the average condo investor, cash flows keep improving as BoC keeps cutting rates. Inventory is going to keep declining as the over leveraged uneducated speculators offload their units. We’re close to an inflection point. Why would one sell if they are making money every month holding? To pay the government a ton of tax on the sale? 😂
Not entirely accurate. Really depends on a few variables: How much property was purchased for, size of downpayment, size of mortgage, mortgage interest rate, rent amount, maintenance fees, property taxes, etc. A lot of investors take a loss on a monthly basis when you take into account carrying cost vs rent, and capital gains have increased significantly, therefore the idea of selling for a significant profit in the future is far less likely now.
@ if one holds, they increase equity in their property every month (which isnt subject to tax). Assuming they sell 5 years from now without any price appreciation, they are still in the green.
Also the Toronto condo market isn’t just the speculative buyers from 2021. So can all these TH-camrs stop casting doom and gloom in every video to get clicks!!
Similar to the stock market, no one cares about historical data. It’s already priced in. Smart investors look ahead. What I see is a sharp under supply of condos in 2 years coupled with lower interest rates, inflation at 2%, and a conservative government that will aim to cut taxes and bring capital back to Canada.
PSA: Every condo investor just needs to be patient. Don’t panic sell and regret your decision in 5 years.
The condo investors that aren't selling, can't sell... period!
You sound like Tom. Saying the condo market is balanced, when it is more months in the buyer's market, then the entire space that makes up the balanced market! It is over 2.5 months deep in the buyer's market at 7.7 months, and the buyer's market is 3-5 months. Even when listings are expiring at a large rate.
Although, I think you're just being an optimist, while Tom is outright lying.
You can delete this if you need to, Tom.
@ I agree with you - but ask the bigger question. How much of the entire market do these “investors” that can’t sell comprise of? I doubt 50% of the condo supply was built from 2021. Come now. Let’s focus on the facts.
The doom and gloom headlines all focus on the minority of condo investors that got in around 2021. Anyone before that is in the green. Trust me, I’m one of them.
All I’m saying is real estate is a long term play. Not a month to month speculation game. If you want this, go to the stock market or better yet the casino.
Fixed rates are still lower than variable. Until that happens I'm not sure they matter much to the housing market.
Investors are losing money. What did they expect? That prices would always go up? There is a limit to what buyers can pay. It was also known that low interest rates are temporary. History teaches us that it teaches us nothing:
th-cam.com/video/LtFyP0qy9XU/w-d-xo.html
For a country: Aging population grater result in low interest rates.