The Rise of China and the Decline of the United States: Power Transition and War or Peaceful Change?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 มิ.ย. 2024
- Political Science Workshop: The Grand Split? How The World is Dividing
Panel One: What is new in our perceptions of world politics?
Brian Schmidt
The Rise of China and the Decline of the United States: Power Transition and War or Peaceful Change?
The near consensus that China is a rising power, and the United States is experiencing relative decline has led both scholars and policymakers to think carefully about how this dynamic might play out in the near future. The power transition school offers a dire prognosis that a great power war between China and the United States is serious possibility. I will explain the power transition school and why they believe war between China and the United States is a distant possibility. I will also examine a body of literature that looks at peaceful change as a way of accommodating changes in the distribution of power without the mechanism of Great Power War. In this regard, the paper will consider two very different bodies of literature on one of the most pressing issues of the time; namely, the rise of China and what this means for international order in the twenty-first century.
US was in decline even if China had not developed as it did. China did not cause the decline. Rather the US was suffering a malaise of its own making. 👏👏👏👍
I hope you like fallout 4 ☢️
@@TacticalMayoDollar Army ⁉️
🪖🪖🪖
Sample: Rome in it's later years...
@@chriswong9158 Rome didn't have nukes.
@@TacticalMayo Yes, the US would rather destroy all life as its last desperate throw of the dice. That's the mindset of Americans. 🤣🤣🤣
China did all these without firing a single shot.
Basically they followed The Art of War !
And all while consuming virgin-boy eggs by the millions! Truely…. Umm… impressive! 🤮
The biggest problem with all these narratives is that they talk about China as a rising power, in isolation. And they miss out on the big picture. The big picture is that Asia is rising. First there was the rise of Japan and Australia (yes too bad, Australia is also considered here). Then there was the rise of the Asian tigers, Hong Kong / Singapore / South Korea / Taiwan. Then there was the rise of China. And now there is the rise of India / Southeast Asia / Persian Gulf states.
The discussion about the rise of China has to be centered around Asia, because China's influence and their challenge to the US power will be mostly confined to Asia. And at the same time, East / South / Southeast Asia will be challenging the dominance of the US, and possibly the West.
The lessons of the past will not be relevant because we are in a truly multi-polar world. The only real precedents in western history are the 30 year war, where multiple nations of roughly equal powers were coming up against each other, rather than eras where 1-2 great powers reigned (Napoleonic France, British empire, Pax Americana).
@@sieteocho Sir/Madam/Ai Software: Please understand there there is no China rising. China has risen, to the highest it’s ever going to rise to in our time. And while yes, a spectacular rise by many metrics, one cannot ignore the many many mannnny examples of the metrics that have been falsified by China’s “Government”.
The sad truth is that the CCP has squandered China’s rise. Absolutely squandered it.
I suppose we shall see? Huh? 📉🌀
Because the US has been making trade and other economic concessions to China for decades now. This process has now reached its limit.
During the Qing dynasty, they made the biggest mistake of not building up its military mights. That's why those Imperial Colonial pirates have taken the opportunity to push opium and used it military to try to break up China, after the opium war, China has to lease Hong Kong and Macau for 99 years. China deem it as century of humiliation. Built more weapons to deter these Imperial Colonial pirates.
So, Taiwan province is the important for China to reunification peacefully.
th-cam.com/video/zzXOm0vY_bs/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared
One point to make it clear: China ceded Hong Kong island to the pirate colonialist in perpetuity in an unequal treaty during the opium war. The new territories on the north of HK island was leased for 99 years. When the lease was up, Margaret Thatcher asked for a further extension which Deng Xiaoping firmly rejected. So started a process of returning both parts of HK to China because without the New Territories the Brits colonialist realised that just HK island itself is not viable.
wumao ideology
We are tired of US, from Africa
China has never gone around colonizing and conquering other countries or peoples even when it was at its most powerful. Instead, it has traded with them. When you make stuff people want (silk, porcelain, teas, etc) you can just sell that to get the stuff you want.
This was true even during China's great age of exploration, during the 1400s when it sailed huge fleets across the Indian Ocean to Africa numerous times. It never took an acre of land. It simply traded with the African peoples.
What about the mountainous border region with India? What about Tibet? What about the West Philippine Sea??? Get your facts straight. China: 📉🌀💀
@@mikestewart4752What about it? Saids who it does not belong to China except for those who wants to steal from it?
@@clearheaded5696 Try again, your statement is a touch ambiguous.
@@mikestewart4752 All these places you mentioned are Chinese territories, and thieves stole them! The problem with India is that India thinks they can inherit the areas arbitrarily demarcated by the former colonizers; the problem with the Philippines is even more ridiculous. The country of the Philippines and its name were created by the colonizers, and China owned these places long before the Philippines was born.
@@mikestewart4752 whenever people asking these questions it is obvious they have not done any homework but being completely brainwashed by the west and the media. If you study China's history you would completely understand China and support China's side, because in old history these land & sea coast belonged to China. It was only because of west colonization of India and Philippines that they were falsely claimed by the west, in other words they stole them from China. In regards of Tibet, Tibetans took over China for hundreds of years, and was always united as one China.
If you have good understanding of China's values, culture, history and philosophies, you will know that the theory of power satisfaction does not apply.
Further, this set of theories are basically western world view, which is narrow minded.
Agree so much!
Agree.
Couldn't agree more 🎯
Lool😂
Touché!
I stopped as soon as he mentioned that the rise of China has implications for regional countries such as Philippines and Vietnam because I know he is up to no good. By mentioning only the two countries having disputes with China, he is disguising all the beneficial aspects of China’s rise with neighboring countries particularly in economic development.
He is indeed very biased in his field of study.
Vietnam and Philippines aren't the one that want to beat off China, it's USA behind of them. That's the source of disputes.
Vietnam has benefited from China a lot and a lot, since fighting for their freedom against the French.
He just collected a $500 pay check from the US Embassy
China rise is problem..US rise is good...western wisdom...China rise dangerous ...American hegemony welcome...idiotic theory
As a Chinese, it seems like we are okay to stay under the current world order, as long as USA doesn’t push us too much(which they already did) and containment military encirclement etc. Because we THRIVE in the current world order, we out-compete everybody else without a fight, we are smart, hardworking and have long term panning and very efficient at executing. We don’t need a war to go to the Top. But Taiwan is another issue, it’s not about changing current world order, it’s about national sovereignty, but the action of taking back Taiwan by force might trigger a change of World Order
Taiwan is a part of China,so it's just another excuse to contain China...
Taiwan is an issue about changing the current world order. Strategically, it is the most important link in the first island chain. If and when China takes over Taiwan, the military power balance will shift towards China. Therefore China's conquest of Taiwan is about its military dominance in Asia.
Japan was able to conquer southeast Asia because they already had Taiwan. What China wants is a repeat of the 1940s. Instead of the imperial Japanese, we have the Chinese.
a PLA high rank officer once said, 'take Taiwan by force is the easiest way to reunite. we will win the island easily, but not their heart.' maybe that's why until now china hasn't attack yet
@@sieteochoit’s not taking over, it’s reclaiming. The Chinese civil war is not over.
prevent taiwan leanin US/NATO is exactly maintainin post WW2 order when we saw NATO nowadays went pro-nazifie and more milliatary-complex haijacked.
At the point of the presentation where the good professor explains that usually it is the dominant power who is satisfied with the current hierarchy of power and it is also usually the dissatisfied rising power that causes instability or even war, I think the current situation is not so. It is quite obvious the current instability is not due to China demanding a huge change to the current globalization situation. Rather the current instability comes from the current dominant power’s sense of insecurity of it top position and its agitations from that insecurity. Hence it is not the dominate power that is satisfied of the current situation. The dominant power’s insecurity is the real source of instability. The world must convince the dominant power that its own insecurity and agitation will cause more harm and it is self inflicted.
I would argue that the hegemon is profiting from creating chaos or wars and its not in its interest to uphold moral values or support international institutions that were themselves setup by the hegemon. This professor is unable to recognize reality 1.0 , so that's the main issue when dealing with scholars from the hegemon side
@bobmorane4926
agree, but as a compliment, only Western hegemon profit from creating chaos or wars.
When he mentioned Australia was anxious with China's rise, we knew he was reading script from the state department. Anybody with a bit knowledge of the world map knows Australia is so far down under😂
There are two main parties in Australia, and I think one of them is anxious about China. The other party is relatively neutral on China
Good Point ✌️
I think it's a little bit of both,
Both feel the same way
Who said democracies were peaceful nations? As far back as Sparta v Athens, the Spartans felt democracy was aggressive and warlike, not peaceful.
Don't forget Hitler, who rose in power through elections too.
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs gave another example: UK.
democracies are peaceful?
😂😂😂😂
Fallacious argument.
一二次世界大战都是这些所谓的民主国家挑起
In June 2024, 1400000000 of the People's Republic of CHINA stand
firm with the coast guards and the Liberation Army of CHINA defend the South China Sea against foreign troublemakers according to the laws of the country and the will of the people.
The Monroe Doctrine is a United States foreign policy position that opposed European & Asian colonialism in the Western Hemisphere. It held that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers was a potentially hostile act against the U.S. The doctrine was central to U.S. foreign policy for much of the 19th and early 20th and now 21st centuries. One example of the doctrine was the Cuban Crisis of 1962, almost started WWIII
China has publicly said over and over again that it will not use nuclear weapons first.
Which country has used nuclear bombs unnecessarily in the past?
Don't forget the unnecessary nuclear experiment on 10000 innocent islanders of a Pacific Island used as guinea pigs in the 1950s. I don't understand how the nuclear experiment can help US survive a nuclear war
That doesn't matter.
@@TacticalMayoWhy this doesn’t matter? The US was the first country to use nuclear weapons on another country and it has refused to denounce its “first nuclear strike policy.”
@@wong3150 because this is the classic case of Thucydide's trap in its purest form. Out of the 16 times that this has happened 12 of those times have ended in brutal confrontation. The sad reality is that it will be exactly the same thing this time but on a global scale because the US is not an empire it's a global hyper power hegemon. This is going to be how all things will come to a close....
You forgot the PART2 of this China's policy: never use nuclear weapons to a country that doesnt own nuclear weapons
Frankly, I have learnt very little from this talk. Actually I found it uninspiring and poorly delivered. The speaker is slow in making his principal arguments which remain rather vague to me He is topical of those Western political scientists who focus on theories but fail to shed light on the realities on the ground. There is nothing about China and the US here that I didn't already know.
Mother Nature and its natural Cycles.
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As a South Asian, I used to love American supremacy and western liberalism because I thought it came with a lot of freedoms, like free press etc. But the JennySide in Gaza has completely blown me out of my dream state or hypnosis. All of that was just smart manipulation by a group of elite capitalist. Even the ordinary American is in some kind of bondage where they can't escape. The elite class manipulates you, gas lights you and steals from you. Its like being in a relationship with a psychopath that constantly lies and steals from you and physically harms you and makes you think its your own fault.
I applaud Carlton University for offering Mandarin classes. Direct intellectual contacts is the best way to achieve understanding. America has already shown signs of decline, when it abandoned its liberal capitalist principles to sanction Huawei and other Chinese businesses, created legislation purely to restrict particular business entities. Then its government ran out of cash and has to operate depending on huge debts sponsored by foreign governments.
Which Country of more speaking ENGLISH: USA or China ??? China have an est. 980 Millions English speaker.
Why: because of Queen Victoria of UK in 1850's, Commerce Worldwide are done in English & Arabic Numbers
I stopped watching after 3mins when he said Australia is nervous over a rising China. For the past 20yrs, China has been overtaking the G7 members one by one but the US didn't behave like today.
it is more of bashing China in this video !
A good example, Australia's Defence Policy In 2023 Explained - th-cam.com/video/sgspkxfkS4k/w-d-xo.html
All Empires come & go.
No exception. 😊
This explains China’s current collapse… 📉🌀
@@mikestewart4752no where near close to that of the us, China controls most of south america, central america, africa,
Us has lost its power influence in most of the world while china is buying the complete electricity and water or infrastructure from 3rd world countries, controling them in some sort of way
@@mikestewart4752You guys claim China collapse for decades.
@@mikestewart4752 Collapse is what I would describe for all the cities in America like SF, NY, LA etc... U.S. is imploding it. I know you feel bad, and you feel the need to bad mouth China, but think before you talk. China has a surplus of trillion dollars per year, while the U.S. have a trillon dollars in debt every 3 months.
@@mikestewart4752 Current? They've been collapsing for 20 years...
This theory assumes so many things.
That's why it is far from reality.
😇
Chinas military budget % of gdp, has not increased intentionally, it is there gdp that has grown. They have a very modest military budget of 1.7 percent, less than required of nato countries (2%) and half of what US spends 3.4%. Their purchasing power is also significantly better being that everything is made in china and have invested so much in optimizing manufacturing (automated cruise missile factories capable of making 1000 a day).
You underestimate the 1.4 billion industrial countries. They have the heavy industry of the Soviet Union and the light industry of the United States. There has never been a 1.4 billion industrial country in human history. They have solved the energy problem and they can fight the whole world.
@@gsyoouactually he is at the same page as you
@@arminius6506 China's unmanned system is very developed, and there are tens of millions of robots in civilian drones. The United States can't measure the current war form with its weapons of war during World War II. Now there are too many aircraft carriers that can be attacked. China's missile technology is very powerful. They have space stations and aerospace technology, which requires strong missile technology.
@@arminius6506 Lol this is why US & and China can't get along, everything is lost in translation 🤣
@@LunarGlow92 You mean, one must lead and one must be US lap dog. Look at EU and Japan.
Henry Kissinger Quote: “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”
PRC is not hawkish, warmonger, aggressive and bully but intend to accumulate enormous wealth diving in international trade which worldwide people like and China would like to avoid war in any cost.
USA : Please help us to end the Ukraine War so that we can concentrate War in the island of Taiwan with you.
China : You're Nuts
8:47 "China has their first aircraft carrier..." means this video is made a few years back.
China's aircraft carrier(s) been around since 2010, first one build by Ukraine for the Russian from the Black Sea.
Henry Kissinger Quote: “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”
And btw, who won the Peloponnesian war.... And why isn't this spoken about....
Because nukes are involved
Are u sure u know China?
Please take a long look at China history before giving a lecture relating to China.
are you a specialist?? talk … not soap details …
@@tijo2524 Look at China today, has China invaded anywhere outside of its border in its over 5000 years of history. Oh, yes, there is Genghis Khan, who actually came from Mongolia. Please understand culture first.
when was this recorded ?
looked like old video and only now post online ??
Where's the question session ?
Brian Schmidt speaks like he's always annoyed. It's very unpleasant to listen to.
There is the elephant in the room that no scholars talk or writer about which is the nuclear bomb that can wipe out human civilization.
This speech is way out of date. China's Economy has been the world's 2nd largest since 2011 or so when it became bigger tjan that of Japan.
They just tested their 3rd aircraft carrier twice in May and June this year.
He is an American prof giving a presentation to the American students, agenda limited
Quoting "U.S. Military" is NOT reliable info.
Like talking to Joe Biden... "nothing to see here"
how old is this professor. he's surprisingly sober for a young prof.
Leaving at 8:55, info not useful.
Are you quoting Graham Alison?
This guy is talking about nonsense. He doesn't know about China, neither does understand China at all.
China isn't trying to be number one. China is more interested in developing its economy, and forming trade networks around the world.
Chinese history has never been about annexing other countries, and taking all their resources. China had a tributary system, it is kind of like trade relations with other countries.
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stigmazing will never stop...keep calm and working harder..
Western countries main problem is believed in capitalism. If capitalism exists democracy doesn't work properly. Because all parties are working as capitalist society says.....as for example India is multi party democracy. All parties are as capitalist lobby...
Western countries main problem is NOT believed in Capitalism, but TRUST & PRINCIPLE does not apply to them
Lecture way too short, I had expected another hour.
We create our reality through our thoughts, feelings, emotions, expectations and beliefs. If like attracts likes, then, if we imagine a peaceful world and start living peacefully with our neighbours, then, our world will be peaceful.
18:40 Harvard team: 15 of the last 19 power transitions result in war
FYI, there is an academic subject called “history”, and it is much longer than 240 years. For the vast minority of human history, China has always been THE most powerful country on the planet. It’s not China’s rise that you need to study, it’s China’s rejuvenation.
Speaker drinking that Kool Aid again...
If the people of North America learned to speak chineese in the next 55 years,just like the efforts tiawan and china have done to learn English,where would it lead.More trade for us all 8f the big shippers would open up and let it flow some more!Also let s9me airline open up real cheap flights.kind of like Ryan Air in Europe. MIght be a lot more 8nteresting than trying to lihe up humanity to more fighting for nothing.
It's basically just about the decline of the US....
US once upon a time a superpower.
The US is the world's global power.
Damn, no wonder west is declining if these are intellectuals
Good lecture. I enjoyed the lack of ideological bullshit.
Inferior is inferior.....Carleton University ranks 651-700 in QS World University Ranking in 2024, and 526 in Global Universities! Is the speaker of this session an alumni??🤠 Ignorance has a price!
Leave it to the warmongering Caucasians to see everything as zero sum game. Believe it or not, business is about win win which is what the Chinese are really good at. Talk to any entrepreneur if any business can be sustained when it only takes but never gives.
Oh my God and then you come on US social media of all hypocrite things to do 🤣
@@TacticalMayo please, I'm not a god
@@TacticalMayo you don't like the challenge ⁉️ ️
Business can be a cooperative venture, but this is about power not money. China didn't become what it is today without wars and power struggles. Where was the cooperation during the Three Kingdoms and during Mao? Human nature doesn't change based on skin and geography.
@@user-og6zk8qm6bnaive of you to think that business success does not translate to power. I bet you only think military is power which only reinforces my original post
BRICS all day
It's hard to provoke China.
That's how you justify it 🤣
📉🌀💀
shit!
The threatening of nuclear war demonstrates how evil, desperate and pathetic.
Absolutely not, you knew exactly what would happen if you reach for the United States number one spot so now you reap what you sow.
reap what though ⁉️
G.I Joe Bot ⁉️
@@TacticalMayoand you still think usa can win the war? Lol you guys cant even determine what a women is or let alone draft men into your military
@@minhloi4536 a good old fashioned passionate ass whoopin tankie on US social media 🤣
Load of rubbish.
This fellow does not appear to believe in his own words.
He rarely look at the students with conviction.
Chinese propaganda alert.
It's not propaganda he states the facts. Choose as you wish as to what you believe. The US mainstream Media won't do this, just talk about narratives to get you to think in a certain way, essentially brainwashing of the masses..
This professor's lecture makes people think that US team must have done or is going to do something extraordinary to all the closer competitors in the Olympic game. Or maybe the bottom 99% of poor people in the US have been too nice to the top 1% elite dominating group.
When I was in Carleton for policies, I was in a class for intro of democracy. My prof is that super pale lady, dark hair I forgor her hair colour, she was shocked by my interest in communism. I think she is from Romania. Of course her people is treated like shyt. Romania supported German invasion
What university is this?
we should be discussing the fall of America instead