edit 2 :holy mother of turds some of you took the title way too seriously,just got dmed by some clown telling me my video is fake. listen,ill explain this concept very simply as to avoiding any inconvenience to anyone, as i said in the video a 2% chance is a 1 in a 50,just because u tried something 50 times and it didnt work doesnt mean the maths is wrong ,it means youre unlucky,this is just the statistical approximate chance,at the end of the day its all rng edit: for those confused about 2:12 its not just 1.52% its 1 + 1.04 + 1.08 + 1.12 so on and so forth to everyone who helped me in this video: i could not include you all and i had to cut out alot of parts from the script, but from people who gave me rokas,stands,helped me with bosses you are all wonderful people and im sorry if you werent included in this video thank you all :)
Usually if you want to get an evolution shiny, just remain persistent and keep on doing it (if you have 3+ pity its recommended to use an alt to get the stand for you instead of risking it, it's how I got my HOH, Grim Reaper, and Ghost Face)
Man I wish I was as lucky as you. I somehow got to 8 percent pity, said fuck it, started only using my main to get c-moon, get to 10 pity AND then get get vela nova. Twice.
i had 5.52% pity when i got lb, and now i keep on doing mih quest for a shiny, while at 7.92% pity and im not getting any shinies lol. i can also confirm that the rib cage method is really good.
My fav way of farming pity is Tusk. Especially 1-3 acts due to it is impossible to get TA1-3 skin and every time you evolve it you have free 0.12% not including chance you get from opening ribs which I also like because of low skin drop chances
You can actually enhance this way of grinding pity by getting TA1 and evolving it up until TA3 and then trading that TA3 for a TA1 and repeat the whole process as much as you'd like. This works even better during holiday events bc iirc you get a 4x increase in your pity and since the game uses the golden pity thing for your evolution skin odds, trying MiH or TWOH is a great choice after all that grind
A very good recommendation for farming Jotaro part 6 and dio over heaven is to use whitesnake as it can cancel stands and in 3 moves can deal 60 damage AND it has a ranged move AND it has pilot i mean what more could you want in a stand for farming?
Some advice: once you to get to 2.5-3 pity farm on your alt until you get whitesnake then go from there, if you get shinies on your alt, no biggie as you can trade stuff to your main
Great video! I do think that you made a mistake in your math though. This is evident especially when you got a 101.96% chance because in the world of statistics and math, a probability of over 100% is just impossible(unless your pity is over 100%, but your pity is only 3%). While you were right in taking the cumulative probability by adding the probabilities for getting a stand at 1% pity, 1.04% pity, etc. your mistake was in the probabilities. Let's say that getting a skin on the Nth arrow is P(N). Then P(N) is equal to the probability of getting no skin for all the tries before your Nth try times your pity for the Nth try. For instance, P(5) = 0.99*0.986*0.982*0.978*0.026. (0.99*0.986*0.982*0.978) is the probability of not getting a skin before your 5th try, and 0.026 is your chance of getting a skin when it is finally your 5th try. The reason you need to consider the probability of not getting a skin before your 5th try is because if you don't consider it, you are essentially overcounting, meaning your probabilities will be significantly higher if you don't do this. The probability of getting a stand before or at 3% pity is still high: 63.24145040736481%, but it's not guaranteed. Either way, the rest of the video is great. Keep up the good work!
I’ll show you with an example of 5% 5x20=100 accordingly if you got 5% you need get a stand 20 times for guaranteed skin but you can also get the skin before you get the stand 20 times but it depends on your luck
wow,never thought a day where math is included in a lego game.Btw,u forgot that u can get extra pity and not risk resetting it by getting ta1 and getting it to ta3 since ta1-ta3 don’t have skins and they’re evolution method which means it give pity,however,ur pity might get rlly high like maybe 8%,u can get ta1 on an alt and trade it to ur main to get skins quicker(u need to have spare arms,cash,steel balls and time to do this method btw)
this is very true, you can also simply just try to get above 2.2 or 4.4 pity by using a few more arrows to get a bigger chance, thats how i got oaa first try
Took me over a week to get a MIH shiny. Earlier this month, I decided to try to get a MIH shiny and it was painful. Trying to get good pity + whitesnake, alt grinding for whitesnake, and more. Honestly getting white snake was already hard enough for me. Did the quest 3x, still no shiny. 4th try, I finally got a skin (OAA). Not sure if I should trade it or not.
Tip: If you want a way to guarantee that your pity increases if you have a high amount of pity for Ex. 3%. Get a TA1 from an alt and use a left arm and talk to Jesus and yeah this may not be that much, but it's the only way to guarantee to increase your pity without the risk of losing it.
ty for the vid, its crazy how yba people can't do basic math and probabilité and have de audacity to question your statistics, but they can count how many lucky arrow cost a random fat star platinum lul
Sir you are a W man but I got a question is the max shiny percentage 1.2%? Also HOW DO YOU GET GOLDEN EXPERIENCE Srry for using all caps but I need it’s Requiem
One improvement is that you were saying at this amount if pity you have this percent chance of rolling a skin, but in better terms you should have said average percent chance of rolling a skin, since it is not guaranteed, but most likely
i don't like being 🤓 but since a lot of people are hating on you thinking you are guaranteed a shiny at 3 pity, i'll have to correct your math. the function that i use to graph the odds of getting a shiny at an X amount of arrows is this one (you can plug it at geogebra) 100(1-(1-(2+0.04x)/200)^x) The correct way of calculating this doesn't use the chances of you getting the shiny, instead it uses the chances of you NOT getting the sninies, that's why we have use the (1-(2+0.04x)/200)^x the (2+0.04x)/2 it's there to get the average chance of you getting a shiny on the xth arrow (that eliminates the need to account for the increase in chance), the 1- that, is to get the chances of NOT rolling a shiny. The ^x it's there for the repetition, the 1 - that you have to do right after that it's there since we up till now we calculated the chances of not getting the shiny, and with that we transform it into the odds of actually getting it, the final *100 it's there to transform it into % the odds vary a lot, and i reccomend using geogebra to watch the graph, since doing the math by hands it's horrible
@@PatchiPup it was needed since people for some reason like to believe that just because something is 1/100 it means that doing it 100 times will gaantee said thing to happen (even when they get told that it's not the case)
its an average chance based on extremely basic statistics so me saying 101% means that on average you wouldve gotten that chance and a 1% chance of another one pretty basic and rough estimation and youre right it is by no means accurate,still fun to speculate
@@PatchiPup Ik, my original comment was just a more accurate version to calculate when you're getting a shiny (without accounting for ribs tho) since i saw comments of people getting mad about the fact that they didn't get a shiny at 3 pity cuz they didn't hear your explanation
I suggest using rib cage and get tusk act 1 and evolve it till tusk act 3 and just trade it back for 10 ribcages you sometimes get 1 tusk or more if you have 2 do all this again, trade one for ribcages and other one for left arm
An easy but correct way to calculate this would be: let A = number of arrows used (^ means to the power of btw) 100 - (100 - [1+0.04xA])^A 1 - (1 - [0.01 + 0.0004xA)^A in calculator because of percentages if you don't want to use a calculator basically 30 arrows gives you a 48% chance to get a shiny the only way for to get guaranteed shiny is when your pity hits 100 at 2500 arrows I know it looks complex but it's actually really easy when you think about it: i am calculating the probability of you not getting a shiny in the second half and the first -100 is to change it from probability of not getting it to probability of getting it. Can you try and test this just in case i made a mistake probability is not my strong point.
Yo, great video by the way. Love to see maths incorporated into this game. Would you mind making an updated video in the near future about this topic? I mainly ask because the game doesn't have 2x skin chances right now and the math was a little bit hazy. If you can that'd be greatly appreciated :)
TL;DR I figured out the chances of getting a skin with your next arrow and i wrote down an equation for anyone who wants specifics. Im posting the equation at the bottom and if you want to know the odds, scroll down and read the step by step tutorial to get the calculator. for anyone whos tried this on their own none of this math makes any sense. firstly, the equation isnt exponential as it should be. from how it was presented, it looked like N is equal to the number of arrows you used. by plugging that into a calculator, you can see that all it shows is your pity and NOT the actual number. More indications that this is wrong are that there is never going to be a chance of getting a stand ABOVE 100% because you can never guarantee a percent chance. im not going to explain how i figured this out because i barely know how to explain it BUT after testing a few times via plugging it into a calculator that should give me the results of X amount of attempts, it seems like it works. heres how you do it. btw, the equation number you get is the chances of your NEXT stand being a skin. Also Patchi, if you are reading this, thanks for the informative video but its simply wrong. HOWEVER, the numbers you got did interest me as i have no clue how you even got them. if you could, id love to see how you did it. Tutorial: step 1. Open desmos and log onto the graphing calculator. step 2. Type the first equation of a=1-(.99-.0004n)^n then make it invisible step 3. Type the 2nd equation of n=ceil(x) and make that invisible too step 4. Type the 3rd and final equation of y-1=100a step 5. Type x= and then put the amount of arrows you have or plan on using. The point where these numbers intersect is the chances of your next stand being a skin. as of now, i dont know how to calculate odds if you're using a rib or if its 2x stand chances but ill figure it out. if you have any questions, ill try to answer them. also, if you want to take a shot at calculating the odds of these events yourself, let me know if you do it! id love to hear how. im only 15 and for some reason, i got put in the basic math class so i dont know if everything is correct but it looks like everything is correct. if im wrong, let me know. Thanks! Edit: after experimenting a bit, it seems like replacing the equation of .99-.0004 with .98-.0008 gives you the results of a 2x stand skin chance.
I know it’s hella late but an easy way to unalive heaven dio and Jotaro part 6 is to use white snake and the spec I use is Hamon to maximize damage with pluck and what I do is charge up hamon the use the spirit disc ability and then you can use whatever other moves until his stand comes back and I stun him and use spirit disc and repeat that over and over again
Just want to explain that chance doesn't work that way, otherwise how do people get 5%? 1% is the chance for each scroll. Each time you have a 1/100 chance of getting a skin, it doesn't mean that after 50 arrows you'll have a 50% chance of it They are different scoring systems, I don't remember what “your” math system is called, but the game uses a probability system
Can't tell if it's a meme video or not, but bro its all about chance, not the amount of times you got a non shiny stand to get the pity, otherwise it would count as double pity and skins would be mad easy to get
you'd need to redo your calculations, 1% base percent is 0 arrow uses, not 25, so 2% would be 25, not 50, so you would have 75 arrow usages. btw 100 arrow usages is 5% pity, so do with that with you will. i'd know bc i've made it to 5% before, and *didn't* get a skin
Basically 10% isn't granted to owe such twoh skins or mih skins? Like per example 2.2% is already a chance of granted getting a skin of mih or twoh? Than just having 10% over being decree getting normals
d4c lt best to sp tw jojo, lt dimensional kidnap and he will stuck in if u dont let him out at coming out, then do this to diavolo to abt 4-5 times, they will rekt eachother
Sadly this doesn't work, it's always 1 in 100 or whatever percentage you are at, when shinies came out I had a 3 month period where I used 376 arrows (yes, I counted that.) and I got 0 skins. Then I got a sc ova.
@@PatchiPup The thing is, the statistics don't actually end up working like that. Because statistics can't add the percentages over multiple tries like that. So, at 3%, you would statistically only have a 3% chance of getting a skin. If the statistics *did* work like that, a lot more people would have a lot more skins, which would be epic.
gl on ur vids! unfortunately, my alt account which is by the name EMOTIONALHEALIN, was hacked and now I have no access to it. it have like over 100 candies and a dead ge in it. there are these scams which seem like links to private server, but they make you sign into your account. it probably let's the hacker know your password and hacks it. actual ones will directly let you join. be careful
can somebody pls tell me why my shiny stand turns back into a normal stand whenever i leave the game and rejoin? im not sure if its a glitch but its happened twice now.
okay so basically if 1% means a 1 in a 100 chance and reaching 100 means a certain chance so 1% + 1.04% + 1.08% so on and so forth till we reach 100% is the pity that should be the approximate average chance needed to get a shiny
U are saying that 3% is a guarantee skin. Guess i am really unlucky,i got 5,8% before pity saving system and i didn't get anything,after that i just went to sleep bc. I was farming that pity around 5-6h.
![[YBA] Ragebaiters fall for obvious ragebait](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/BeB3825cei8/mqdefault.jpg)
![[YBA] Ragebaiters fall for obvious ragebait](/img/tr.png)
![[YBA] How Fast Can You Get Made In Heaven?](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/zV8kMG9RefA/mqdefault.jpg)
![[YBA] ONE Tip for Every Stand in Your Bizarre Adventure](/img/n.gif)
edit 2 :holy mother of turds some of you took the title way too seriously,just got dmed by some clown telling me my video is fake.
listen,ill explain this concept very simply as to avoiding any inconvenience to anyone,
as i said in the video a 2% chance is a 1 in a 50,just because u tried something 50 times and it didnt work doesnt mean the maths is wrong ,it means youre unlucky,this is just the statistical approximate chance,at the end of the day its all rng
edit: for those confused about 2:12
its not just 1.52%
its 1 + 1.04 + 1.08 + 1.12 so on and so forth
to everyone who helped me in this video:
i could not include you all and i had to cut out alot of parts from the script,
but from people who gave me rokas,stands,helped me with bosses
you are all wonderful people and im sorry if you werent included in this video
thank you all :)
I had 8% pitty and got to 10.6 pitty after 24 baby’s 💀 I love ur videos but this is false
And yes I forgot to watch the full video
I subbed to make u happy!
You are foda Man 👍
Probability is a bitch
a yba youtuber that does MATH?? i can learn hell of a lot more from this than school.
All of them do because all YBA players are nerds
he didnt even do it right lmao
*maths stupid math just sounds retarded
Bro go outside
real
Usually if you want to get an evolution shiny, just remain persistent and keep on doing it (if you have 3+ pity its recommended to use an alt to get the stand for you instead of risking it, it's how I got my HOH, Grim Reaper, and Ghost Face)
Man I wish I was as lucky as you. I somehow got to 8 percent pity, said fuck it, started only using my main to get c-moon, get to 10 pity AND then get get vela nova. Twice.
@@bruhmoment6568 pain vela nova low as hell
if I get tyrant my fried give me grim reaper since he love tyrant
i got hoh during like 4 hours, and my 3 kcr attempts were deimos
fr thats how i got my hoh
But in the end, it just matters about your own luck 😔
i had 5.52% pity when i got lb, and now i keep on doing mih quest for a shiny, while at 7.92% pity and im not getting any shinies lol. i can also confirm that the rib cage method is really good.
good luck on getting shiny mih
Can you say me your method of farming Pitty?
My fav way of farming pity is Tusk. Especially 1-3 acts due to it is impossible to get TA1-3 skin and every time you evolve it you have free 0.12% not including chance you get from opening ribs which I also like because of low skin drop chances
Everything's fine until you accidentally get a twau/d4c skin (the solution is to get ta1 from alts or other people)
@@icecreamwaffles1962 i was farming pity for shiny mih (11%) and i got cracked
@ReturnCosmo *p a i n*
I use alts to get ta1 and then I evolve it
Didn’t even think about that, thx
Technically, according to statistics, there is an extremely minute possibility that all joes will never get another skin from an arrow ever again
eventually, no matter how unlucky you are, the probability will always hit 100%, so that just isnt true
@@alexithemia9746 isnt there a cap on pity though
@@munke7885 why would there be? as long as you can use enough arrows to get to 100 percent pity, then luck isnt a factor.
@@alexithemia9746 pity cap (as in the game mechanic that was put in place to cap the chance of a shiny)
You can actually enhance this way of grinding pity by getting TA1 and evolving it up until TA3 and then trading that TA3 for a TA1 and repeat the whole process as much as you'd like. This works even better during holiday events bc iirc you get a 4x increase in your pity and since the game uses the golden pity thing for your evolution skin odds, trying MiH or TWOH is a great choice after all that grind
A very good recommendation for farming Jotaro part 6 and dio over heaven is to use whitesnake as it can cancel stands and in 3 moves can deal 60 damage AND it has a ranged move AND it has pilot i mean what more could you want in a stand for farming?
I feel your pain I got over 70 attempts on Mih shiny
i did 58 attempts on hoh and i got 2 mja's and 2 devil moons but i got it on last attempt with 8.0 pity
I got 101 mih...
I got MJA on my first attempt on ever getting Made in Heaven, ever. No pity. I have a feeling that was WAY more lucky than I actually thought
Some advice: once you to get to 2.5-3 pity farm on your alt until you get whitesnake then go from there, if you get shinies on your alt, no biggie as you can trade stuff to your main
Thank, ima try getting ooa
What if i am prestige 1 and want skin
@@FractalSpaces get pres 3 🗣💯
Great video! I do think that you made a mistake in your math though. This is evident especially when you got a 101.96% chance because in the world of statistics and math, a probability of over 100% is just impossible(unless your pity is over 100%, but your pity is only 3%). While you were right in taking the cumulative probability by adding the probabilities for getting a stand at 1% pity, 1.04% pity, etc. your mistake was in the probabilities. Let's say that getting a skin on the Nth arrow is P(N). Then P(N) is equal to the probability of getting no skin for all the tries before your Nth try times your pity for the Nth try. For instance, P(5) = 0.99*0.986*0.982*0.978*0.026. (0.99*0.986*0.982*0.978) is the probability of not getting a skin before your 5th try, and 0.026 is your chance of getting a skin when it is finally your 5th try. The reason you need to consider the probability of not getting a skin before your 5th try is because if you don't consider it, you are essentially overcounting, meaning your probabilities will be significantly higher if you don't do this. The probability of getting a stand before or at 3% pity is still high: 63.24145040736481%, but it's not guaranteed. Either way, the rest of the video is great. Keep up the good work!
AY AY AY AY STOP BEING SMART BRO WTF IS THAT
glad you enjoyed the video tho
🤓
@@nyctophobia8996 that's u
@@blancablanca2944 is that supposed to be a insult or a compliment
this math actually helps tysm
Ribs were an amazing method of farming before Golden and Wet came along... T_T
I’ll show you with an example of 5%
5x20=100
accordingly if you got 5%
you need get a stand 20 times for guaranteed skin
but you can also get the skin before you get the stand 20 times
but it depends on your luck
wow,never thought a day where math is included in a lego game.Btw,u forgot that u can get extra pity and not risk resetting it by getting ta1 and getting it to ta3 since ta1-ta3 don’t have skins and they’re evolution method which means it give pity,however,ur pity might get rlly high like maybe 8%,u can get ta1 on an alt and trade it to ur main to get skins quicker(u need to have spare arms,cash,steel balls and time to do this method btw)
i didnt forget it
i cut it out of the script because it was way too difficult and time consuming
What I do to build pity is get rib cages and then only get 1 worthiness. You can gain pity even after turning into stone so it’s perfect
Does this still have a chance at getting a shiny?
@@brynia6466 nope. Because of the fact that you turn to stone there’s no risk of getting a skin you don’t want.
You don’t get pity when you turn into stone
maybe im mistaken but i dont think you get pity when you turn into stone
@@PatchiPup no shot
this is very true, you can also simply just try to get above 2.2 or 4.4 pity by using a few more arrows to get a bigger chance, thats how i got oaa first try
The Ribcage method is really great, It helped me reach 11.12% pity and i got the waifu oh v3
Took me over a week to get a MIH shiny. Earlier this month, I decided to try to get a MIH shiny and it was painful. Trying to get good pity + whitesnake, alt grinding for whitesnake, and more. Honestly getting white snake was already hard enough for me. Did the quest 3x, still no shiny. 4th try, I finally got a skin (OAA). Not sure if I should trade it or not.
It took me 4 months and 107 attempts to get oaa
@@discodoberman While it took me one week with 2x pity and 4 attempts it get OAA when I wasn't aiming for that skin.
1:02 when he says subscribe the subscribe button glows for some reason
Tip: If you want a way to guarantee that your pity increases if you have a high amount of pity for Ex. 3%. Get a TA1 from an alt and use a left arm and talk to Jesus and yeah this may not be that much, but it's the only way to guarantee to increase your pity without the risk of losing it.
6:26 best anime intro 😂
I expected you going "just grind bro" not some mathematics involved in getting a different looking stand
2:42 than why do i have 6% pity
Thank you for the vid, I finally get an evolved shiny.
OOO so that’s why I got a twoh shiny first attempt when the Halloween update came (I had 6.34% pity)
ty for the vid, its crazy how yba people can't do basic math and probabilité and have de audacity to question your statistics, but they can count how many lucky arrow cost a random fat star platinum lul
Sir you are a W man but I got a question is the max shiny percentage 1.2%? Also HOW DO YOU GET GOLDEN EXPERIENCE Srry for using all caps but I need it’s Requiem
"To get a guaranteed skin, we need to have a pity of 2.2%"
Me attempts twoh 4 times with 8% and got it only the fifth time.
i attempted 9 twoh at 8% pity no skin
Lucky asf 6 att and 10.6 pity
update i only got 11 attempts and i got 10% on my 9-11 attempts. i gave up since i have exam
@@doralnashtyjaym.755 im abt to do my final twoh quest i'll tell u how it goes
@@xander6153 so... how did it go
One improvement is that you were saying at this amount if pity you have this percent chance of rolling a skin, but in better terms you should have said average percent chance of rolling a skin, since it is not guaranteed, but most likely
very respectable comment
i don't like being 🤓
but since a lot of people are hating on you thinking you are guaranteed a shiny at 3 pity, i'll have to correct your math.
the function that i use to graph the odds of getting a shiny at an X amount of arrows is this one (you can plug it at geogebra)
100(1-(1-(2+0.04x)/200)^x)
The correct way of calculating this doesn't use the chances of you getting the shiny, instead it uses the chances of you NOT getting the sninies, that's why we have use the (1-(2+0.04x)/200)^x
the (2+0.04x)/2 it's there to get the average chance of you getting a shiny on the xth arrow (that eliminates the need to account for the increase in chance), the 1- that, is to get the chances of NOT rolling a shiny. The ^x it's there for the repetition, the 1 - that you have to do right after that it's there since we up till now we calculated the chances of not getting the shiny, and with that we transform it into the odds of actually getting it, the final *100 it's there to transform it into %
the odds vary a lot, and i reccomend using geogebra to watch the graph, since doing the math by hands it's horrible
"i dont like being a 🤓"
*proceeds to 🤓*
@@PatchiPup it was needed since people for some reason like to believe that just because something is 1/100 it means that doing it 100 times will gaantee said thing to happen (even when they get told that it's not the case)
its an average chance based on extremely basic statistics
so me saying 101% means that on average you wouldve gotten that chance and a 1% chance of another one
pretty basic and rough estimation and youre right it is by no means accurate,still fun to speculate
@@PatchiPup Ik, my original comment was just a more accurate version to calculate when you're getting a shiny (without accounting for ribs tho) since i saw comments of people getting mad about the fact that they didn't get a shiny at 3 pity cuz they didn't hear your explanation
The way I get shinys is i use 1 worthiness and there's a very good chance to get a shiny
I suggest using rib cage and get tusk act 1 and evolve it till tusk act 3 and just trade it back for 10 ribcages you sometimes get 1 tusk or more if you have 2 do all this again, trade one for ribcages and other one for left arm
An easy but correct way to calculate this would be:
let A = number of arrows used (^ means to the power of btw)
100 - (100 - [1+0.04xA])^A
1 - (1 - [0.01 + 0.0004xA)^A in calculator because of percentages
if you don't want to use a calculator basically 30 arrows gives you a 48% chance to get a shiny
the only way for to get guaranteed shiny is when your pity hits 100 at 2500 arrows
I know it looks complex but it's actually really easy when you think about it:
i am calculating the probability of you not getting a shiny in the second half and the first -100 is to change it from probability of not getting it to probability of getting it. Can you try and test this just in case i made a mistake probability is not my strong point.
should it not be the (1+4/100)^times used arrows??
You took the cumulative chance for it being very likely to succeed as the actual chance. the actual chance remains at 2.2
Yo, great video by the way. Love to see maths incorporated into this game. Would you mind making an updated video in the near future about this topic? I mainly ask because the game doesn't have 2x skin chances right now and the math was a little bit hazy. If you can that'd be greatly appreciated :)
"at 3% chance you are guaranteed a shiny stand"
Me who got to 7.04% pity wondering why I haven't gotten a skin yet: 👁👄👁
Same me no shiny twoh with 7% rn
How do you get that high pity?
@@actor3949 being unlucky
This was good, I used it to get my SW:TW.
TL;DR I figured out the chances of getting a skin with your next arrow and i wrote down an equation for anyone who wants specifics. Im posting the equation at the bottom and if you want to know the odds, scroll down and read the step by step tutorial to get the calculator.
for anyone whos tried this on their own none of this math makes any sense. firstly, the equation isnt exponential as it should be. from how it was presented, it looked like N is equal to the number of arrows you used. by plugging that into a calculator, you can see that all it shows is your pity and NOT the actual number. More indications that this is wrong are that there is never going to be a chance of getting a stand ABOVE 100% because you can never guarantee a percent chance. im not going to explain how i figured this out because i barely know how to explain it BUT after testing a few times via plugging it into a calculator that should give me the results of X amount of attempts, it seems like it works. heres how you do it. btw, the equation number you get is the chances of your NEXT stand being a skin.
Also Patchi, if you are reading this, thanks for the informative video but its simply wrong. HOWEVER, the numbers you got did interest me as i have no clue how you even got them. if you could, id love to see how you did it.
Tutorial:
step 1. Open desmos and log onto the graphing calculator.
step 2. Type the first equation of a=1-(.99-.0004n)^n then make it invisible
step 3. Type the 2nd equation of n=ceil(x) and make that invisible too
step 4. Type the 3rd and final equation of y-1=100a
step 5. Type x= and then put the amount of arrows you have or plan on using. The point where these numbers intersect is the chances of your next stand being a skin.
as of now, i dont know how to calculate odds if you're using a rib or if its 2x stand chances but ill figure it out. if you have any questions, ill try to answer them. also, if you want to take a shot at calculating the odds of these events yourself, let me know if you do it! id love to hear how. im only 15 and for some reason, i got put in the basic math class so i dont know if everything is correct but it looks like everything is correct. if im wrong, let me know. Thanks!
Edit: after experimenting a bit, it seems like replacing the equation of .99-.0004 with .98-.0008 gives you the results of a 2x stand skin chance.
I know it’s hella late but an easy way to unalive heaven dio and Jotaro part 6 is to use white snake and the spec I use is Hamon to maximize damage with pluck and what I do is charge up hamon the use the spirit disc ability and then you can use whatever other moves until his stand comes back and I stun him and use spirit disc and repeat that over and over again
Just want to explain that chance doesn't work that way, otherwise how do people get 5%? 1% is the chance for each scroll.
Each time you have a 1/100 chance of getting a skin, it doesn't mean that after 50 arrows you'll have a 50% chance of it
They are different scoring systems, I don't remember what “your” math system is called, but the game uses a probability system
you find this out 4 days BEFORE halloween event ends...
Me with 7.68% goddamn pity and over 38 attempts at getting d-moon:
Me with 10% because of double pity and getting yellow hireophant: oh really now? REALLY?! ARE YOU SURE?!
What is double pity
bro fr calculated the chances of getting yba shines
the end broke me 🤣
+1 sub
oh trust me it broke me too...
2:12 I am confused. How is 1.52% pity summed up to a 17.6% chance of getting a shiny?
I'm also confused on how it's a 17.6% chance from just 1.52% pity
because its not just 1.52%
its 1 + 1.04 + 1.08 + 1.012 so on and so forth
Its 17% because u acumulate every pity changes from every arrow
@@PatchiPup why would you add percentages? I do not get that part.
@@coolbro_2963 My boy needs education..
what if I have pity of 9.90 where the heck is the math
Me: *uses a rib to increase my 2.44% pity*
Cracked TWAU: Bonjour.
RIP
I once got to 7% pity when pity didnt save. I ran out of arrows and it was 3am, so i had to log off and cry ;-;
and i dunno if that glitch still working but with WS when u land both disc removing move on him thn he looses his stand FOREVER ( dio oh)
Holy shit I havent watched this guy in like 2 years. I remember that odd tank game you made lmfao.
HELL YEAAAA
Bro, I got 10% pity with the Christmas event… how?
i mean 3% pity for example would=3/100 chance of getting a skin so tat means theoritically it would take 33.3=33/34 attempts to get a skin
"[YBA[ I Found a way to get Guaranteed Stand Skins"
me: just use lucky arrow?
th-cam.com/video/C04X9SYejw4/w-d-xo.html
Bro I got frieza skin from normal arrow. For those of you who don't know it's a legendary
Me who doesn't get Dark Determination Tusk after 3% Pity: 👁️👄👁️
I got 8 percent for a fricken hg eldritch
This begs the question, how did I not get a mih shiny AT 6% PITY!!!
luck
my brain isn't functioning anymore after hearing this..
thats okay,just subscribe
Instructions unclear,got vela nova instead of mih skin
does the rarity of the stand affect it??
like epic or legendary
nope,that rarity is constant,its the pity that changes
Can't tell if it's a meme video or not, but bro its all about chance, not the amount of times you got a non shiny stand to get the pity, otherwise it would count as double pity and skins would be mad easy to get
I got a MiH skin with less than 1.50% pity on my first try :)
I somehow got 3.4 pity by only using arrows. Well I did use some ribcages but not more than 10
you'd need to redo your calculations, 1% base percent is 0 arrow uses, not 25, so 2% would be 25, not 50, so you would have 75 arrow usages. btw 100 arrow usages is 5% pity, so do with that with you will. i'd know bc i've made it to 5% before, and *didn't* get a skin
Basically 10% isn't granted to owe such twoh skins or mih skins? Like per example 2.2% is already a chance of granted getting a skin of mih or twoh? Than just having 10% over being decree getting normals
(statistically)
@@PatchiPup oh
d4c lt best to sp tw jojo, lt dimensional kidnap and he will stuck in if u dont let him out at coming out, then do this to diavolo to abt 4-5 times, they will rekt eachother
Sadly this doesn't work, it's always 1 in 100 or whatever percentage you are at, when shinies came out I had a 3 month period where I used 376 arrows (yes, I counted that.) and I got 0 skins.
Then I got a sc ova.
well it all boils down to luck,its rng after all
Everyone struggling getting a good skin.
Here I am, traded D4She until TWAU:OH and idk how 😭
i used a requiem arrow on KC with 3.52% pity and got no shiny
it's not guaranteed
its only statistics,
it boils down to luck at the end of the day but its still interesting to learn about the numbers behind the scenes
You got no shiny with 3.52% base pity or with the x2 ?
@@GurusTX yes
@@PatchiPup The thing is, the statistics don't actually end up working like that. Because statistics can't add the percentages over multiple tries like that. So, at 3%, you would statistically only have a 3% chance of getting a skin. If the statistics *did* work like that, a lot more people would have a lot more skins, which would be epic.
The conclusion : reach 3% pitty using ribcages, use alt to grind for evolved stand., then boom?
then (potentially) boom
@@PatchiPup bro I failed 3 times but it's ok
gl on ur vids! unfortunately, my alt account which is by the name EMOTIONALHEALIN, was hacked and now I have no access to it. it have like over 100 candies and a dead ge in it. there are these scams which seem like links to private server, but they make you sign into your account. it probably let's the hacker know your password and hacks it. actual ones will directly let you join. be careful
classic url scam
just make sure what ur clicking on is a roblox.com site not something like roblx.com or smth like that
patchi i got nonosama beach boy after 7 failed attempts for shiny sptw at 4%+ pity. since ur smart what are the chances of that
I just watched a dude gamble so he can test if he can gamble
and he couldnt
I've rewatched this about 5 times and still don't understand how 3% = 100%. Can someone explain?
read the pinned comment,
thanks :)
@@PatchiPup i don't see a pinned comment lol. I'm so confuuuuused
it got unpinned for some reason,my bad
@@PatchiPup ah its back up now, ty! :D
Ur using the wrong formula. According to statistics this problem needs bernoulli's formula of repeated tries.
I just use simple calculations ;-;
1 is 1/100 chance of a skin
2 is 1/50 chance skin
3 is 1/33 chance of a skin *etc*
thats...
what i said tho...
o h
3:39 bro gravity guy (i dont remenber he's name) got a thing beetwin hes legs that is kinda sus 💀
waaaaait a minute.
@@PatchiPup i will Never see the stand by the same way again i think 😭
I think up grading tusk increase ur pity, im not sure tho
It's been 3 years since I focus on math
how about you focus on that subscribe button
What are you using to record?
OBS Studio
or alternatively Fraps
6.08% pity and made twoh AGAIN but still no twoh skin even after 8 attempts. Your formula might be perfect, but the game isn't programmed right?
the game is quite litteraly programmed,
any my formula is just basic probabilities
if you want to grind pity just use worthiness 2 :^
me at 2% pity and not getting a shiny till 4%
can somebody pls tell me why my shiny stand turns back into a normal stand whenever i leave the game and rejoin? im not sure if its a glitch but its happened twice now.
this glitch was just fixed in the new update. sadly you wont be able to get them back but you wont get this problem again
@@scyfee_ o ok thanks
I’ve been using ribs for pity for a long time but also evoling the tusk can give you pity also
Me having a 5.6 % pity with no event, also me: FREE SKIN?!1!1!!1!1!?
bro you open ribcages or up pity with tusk method?
just yesterday I got Fem SPTW
and today I watched this..
with s&w being added sm and act 1 are only 40% now
Well now your pity is 2.24 and im pretty sure the 100% chance is 3.00+
There is no way to guarantee something if its not 100% chance.
okay so basically
if 1% means a 1 in a 100 chance
and reaching 100 means a certain chance
so 1% + 1.04% + 1.08% so on and so forth till we reach 100% is the pity that should be the approximate average chance needed to get a shiny
So your saying I’m even more unlucky with 4.5% pity and getting mint snake?
maybe
You forgot. This is YBA logic doesn’t exist
i learned that the hard way if u watched till the end of the video
i had a stroke watching this video this shi harder to comprehend then math class
U are saying that 3% is a guarantee skin. Guess i am really unlucky,i got 5,8% before pity saving system and i didn't get anything,after that i just went to sleep bc. I was farming that pity around 5-6h.
how many glock did you got?
I tried farming pity using ribcages cuz I want to get a tusk act skin, but I ended up getting a tw au oh.
kid named roll skin button:
5% i get a shitty skin, my friend had 1.8* pity and he got jack sp. i fucking hated the game after that
rip
@@PatchiPup i was actually very sad lol, also he didnt even feel bad like bruhhh
Me when i got three trash shiny's in a row :👁️👄👁️